March 31st, 2026
Politics - Zelenskyy offers Easter Ceasefire
- Kremlin skeptical
Combat Ops - Fighting continues, few changes
- Glide bomb usage continues to climb
Economics - Oil prices…
Weather
Comments from both sides note that the weather has improved and with it successful FPV drone strikes have increased.
Kharkiv
66 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend. Rain showers possible tonight, tomorrow and Friday morning. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 5kts.
Melitopol
58 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers possible tonight, Friday and Saturday. Daily lows in the mid to upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
64 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
On Monday President Zelenskyy proposed an Easter ceasefire and also called for a truce on attacks on energy infrastructure. He went on to say that Ukraine is ready to compromise:
“We are ready for a ceasefire for the Easter holidays. In my opinion, to be honest, normal people who respect life talk about a ceasefire and an end to the war for life, not for a few days … But, of course, we are ready for any compromises, except for compromises with our dignity and sovereignty.”
“We are ready to talk about any ceasefire... A complete ceasefire. An energy ceasefire. A ceasefire – food security and energy, that is, both the sea and the sky. Completely – so that neither missiles nor drones fly. No strikes on infrastructure… We have proposed all this. And we are open. If the ‘Russians’ are ready – please, we are ready. Let them propose it at any time – we are ready to resolve this issue.”
The Kremlin responded that it had not seen the details of the proposal; with Kremlin spokesman Petrov saying:
"In Zelenskyy's statements that we have read, we have not seen any clearly formulated initiative for an Easter truce.”
The European Commission has approved a 1.5 billion euro ($1.7 billion)proposal to modernize and expand Europe’s defense industrial base (DIB), to include 260 million euros to modernize Ukraine’s DIB.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues along most of the front lines, and Russian sources claimed gains near the town of Novodmytrivka, about 20 miles south-east of Sumy city (about 4 miles west of the Ukraine - Russia border), but this has not been confirmed.
Novodmytrivka was a town of about 250 before the war and sits amid a good deal of woods and some scattered farmland.
There were no other confirmed changes to the lines in the Sumy or Kharkiv oblasts.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
There were multiple reports of Russian gains in the Kupyansk area but none of them can be confirmed and probably equate to increased numbers of recon probes into Ukrainian held terrain as the weather improves and the terrain starts to dry out a bit.
Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting continues to note that a Russian element is still holding in the central hospital in Kupyansk.
SIVERSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Fighting continues in the Siversk - Lyman - Slovyansk area and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces continue to hold position about 3 miles north of Lyman (just west of Stavky), and imagery also confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed back into the south edge of Yampil (about 5 miles south-east of Lyman).
Imagery of the Kostiantinivka area shows multiple gains by both sides but this appears to be more trading of patches of terrain.
Fighting was also reported further west, north of Pokrovsk, as well as west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no changes to the front lines in this area.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Ukrainian forces continue to attack south-east of Verbove, but there were no changes in the lines, and anecdotal Ukrainian reports suggest there has been some Russian reinforcement in the area, and that Russian forces have occupied the old Ukrainian defensive positions in this area and that that has made advancements very difficult.
Further south, south-west of Hulyaipole, imagery confirmed Russian gains around Myrne. And further west imagery confirmed Russian forces about 10 miles east-south-east of Orikhiv, north of the T0815 roadway, have pushed into the southern edge of the village of Luhivske. Russian forces claim to have seized the whole village but that has not been confirmed.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of March 30th-March 31st Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kinzhal ballistic missile and 289 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 267 drones.
Damage was reported in Khmelnytskyi, Odessa, Poltava, Zhytomyr oblasts. There was no report as to where the ballistic missile struck.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.
Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 18 wounded
RuAF tacair struck 15 towns.
Ukrainian drones again struck the oil terminal in Primorsk, north-west of St Petersburg.
President Zelenskyy posted that during the week of March 22nd - March 29th Russian forces launched 40 missiles, 3,000 drones and 1,450 glide bombs into Ukrainian air space.
During the night of March 29th-March 30th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 164 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 150 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. There was no report as to where the ballistic missile struck.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, and power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
No civilian casualties reported yet.
RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Mar30 Mar31
Brent 94.71 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 115.60 117.50
WTI 92.10 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 102.70 103.80
NG 3.97 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.87 2.86
Wheat 8.52 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 6.07 6.09
Ruble 85 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 81.20 81.47
Hryvnia 28.6 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.86 43.78
Urals 91.66 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 109.69 115.98
ESPO 94.52 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 113.32 115.39
Sokol 99.31 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 114.76 114.29
The Urals oil spot price (which, again is not what people are paying) hit its highest price since summer of 2008.
Thoughts
On the ground, one item of significance was a Russian probe that appears to have pushed more than a mile north-west along the Kryvyi Torets River into central Kostiantinivka, west of the H20 roadway. This places the Russian element at the base of the high ground that is the real Ukrainian defensive position in the city. Whether this suggests the Russians are going to start poking at the real core of the defensive positions int he city, or this is just another probe isn't clear, but this is the first probe into this area, and would be a likely place for the Russians to poke IF the Spring Offensive has begun.
At the same time, the Russian Air Force continues to ramp up its glide bomb usage; Kostiantinivka has been a particular target for these weapons, with Ukrainian army sources noting that on one recent day 70 glide bombs struck the city.
As for the EC, I continue to be amazed at how “rapidly” the European DIB has responded to the needs of this war… (Not that the US DIB is all that much better).
v/r pete
