November 3rd, 2026 NEXT SUMMARY NOVEMBER 10TH
Politics - Talks in Abu Dhabi, November 10th and 11th
- Mrs. Trump to host talks with Ukrainians, Russians
- Netherlands “looking for Patriot missiles
Combat Ops - Strike on Power grid today
- No changes on the ground
Weather
Kharkiv
50 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain on Friday. Temperature falling, today through Thursday morning, will dip to low 30s, weekends cooler, in the upper 20s in the morning, highs in the low 40s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
56 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Temperatures falling, by Thursday lows will be in the low 30s, highs in the low 40s, weekend could see lows in the 20s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
47 and cloudy. Cloudy to mostly through next week. Temperatures falling, by Thursday daily lows will be in the low 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
Working level talks, mediated by the US, will be held in Abu Dhabi on November 10th and 11th (next Tuesday and Wednesday).
Talks will reportedly focus on de-escalation, post war security, and humanitarian relief.
The US negotiators will meet in Brussels this week with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, and the EU.
Mrs. Trump will host Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the White House to discuss the ceasefire in Oleshky; she will make a statement on the meeting on Thursday.
Mrs. Trump reported that “more than 800” residents were evacuated from Oleshky over the weekend.
Defense Minister Yeşilgöz-Zegerius of the Netherlands announced that she is working with other European countries to transfer Patriot missiles to Ukraine, presumably trading in-stock missiles to Ukraine and then taking delivery of new Patriots as they are delivered in 2030.
Air and Maritime Operations
Ukrainian Forces
During the night of November 2nd-November 3rd Ukrainian drones struck the oil refinery at Yaroslavl (125 miles north-east of Moscow).
Fires continues at the oil storage site near Samara (about 550 miles east-south-east of Moscow), struck on the 1st.
During the night of October 31st - November 1st Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo.
Ukrainian forces struck two oil refineries in Ufa on October 31st.
Ukrainian forces struck the Moscow area on the 31st, forcing Sheremetyevo airfield to temporarily close.
Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky industrial facility in Rostov on October 30th. The Kamensky plant produce rocket fuel for battlefield rockets (MLRS).
Russian Forces
During the period November 2nd-November 3rd Russian forces launched at least several Iskander ballistic missiles, 59 x cruise missiles and 289 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 3 ballistic missiles, 49 cruise missiles and 257 strike drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts. The power grid appears to be the focus of this attack. Internet access has also been severely diminished in several oblasts due to power grid strikes.
Damage was reported at several DTEK thermal power plants (located south of Kyiv city, as well as in the Odessa area), hit during this morning’s attack, and the plants have been shut down as the extent of damage is assessed, with multiple power outages reported.
As of mid-day Kyiv time, water was out throughout most of that city, and the metro train service had been suspended.
Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 81 wounded, to include 46 from drone strikes at the Nemyshlyanskyi district hospital in Kharkiv.
The casualty count from the strike in Zaporizhzhia yesterday has reached 24 dead.
During the period October 29th-November 2nd Russian forces launched at least 7 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 4 Kh-59/69 missiles, multiple Banderol loitering drones, and 877 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAW claimed it defeated 3 cruise missiles, and at least 96 drones during the night of the 29th-30th. Interception numbers for the next three nights have not been released, except to state that no ballistic missiles were intercepted.
Attacks ranged across much of central and eastern Ukraine, and power outages were reported in the Kyiv area and Dnipropetrovsk.
Technology
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces have deployed a new electronic warfare system that jams Starlink transmissions and interfere with terminal guidance for Ukrainian strikes on point targets. The system has a range of abut 2.8 KM *1.7 miles) and reportedly Russian forces now have these systems in place to protect most targets in Crimea.
Ground Operations
There were no confirmed changes on the line, but Russian infiltration efforts continue along its length. West of Pokrovsk Ukrainian sources note increased glide bomb strikes in concert with Russian infiltration elements moving forward.
Two items f note: the colder weather will simply make life less pleasant for the troops onto ground but it alone hs not substantively changed the levels of activity of either side over the past 4 years. However, loss of foliage, as well as expected rain showers next week will affect mobility and slow an already slow grind.
At the same time, the sheer tenacity of the troops on both sides continues to amaze. Ukrainian forces report that there remains several small Russian elements in Kupyansk, that is, Ukrainian forces have been trying to clear that city since February (and arguably, since December) but there are units holding on (or perhaps occasionally being switched our, as has been speculated) and the Ukrainian troops have yet to dig them out.
As you may recall, early in the year, a pair of Ukrainian soldiers spent something on the order of 3 months inside eastern Kostiantinivka, surround by Russian troops, and then worked their way west, more than 100 days behind enemy lines with the enemy trying to clear that section of the city.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Nov2 Nov3
Brent 94.71 77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 106.00 105.30
WTI 92.10 73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 97.30 97.47
NG 3.97 3.12 2.64 2.95 3.16 2.93 2.91
Wheat 8.52 6.06 6.35 7.46 6.86 6.05 6.02
Ruble 85 76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 81.21 81.52
Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.70 45.60
Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 101.12 91.03
ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 125.64 N/A
Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 117.03 117.03
ESPO Forward, 03 November - 124.70
Thoughts
It’s not clear how many missiles remain in the inventory of various NATO nations, nor how many they would be willing to transfer. What follows is a mixture of conjecture and a few numbers that have appeared in the press over the past year, so take with a grain or two of salt.
About inventories:
European nations already have an order for 1,000 Patriot missiles, that will be filled when available - US needs can always trump an earlier order. And then there is the just approved sale of 500, delivery starting in 2030.
The estimates on some inventories (again, take with salt):
The Netherlands - less than 100, probably well less - perhaps several dozen. Some Patriots were given to Ukraine in August, along with some from Poland, but this was a small number.
Greece - 200+ PAC-2s, perhaps as many as 300. The Greek government has already said it will not transfer any more, that it needs these missiles for its own defense.
Spain - had a stated war reserve of 50, as of April 2024, then provided a number of small transfers (one of 12, others in single digits) to Ukraine, pledged 5 more to Ukraine in March, says it has no more to give; presumably has reached its war reserve.
Germany - estimated to be in the 100 - 200 range. Has an order for 120 x PAC-3 MSE, first delivery in 2028 (75 missiles) and 2029 (45 missiles).
Poland - also estimated to be in the 200 or less range, after multiple transfers to Ukraine; also has many missiles on order.
Romania - had 224 (168 PAC 3 and 56 GEM-T (Guidance Enhanced Missile - an upgrade to the basic PAC-2)); they gave one full system to Ukraine, and a full system can include quite a few missiles, so, again, the stockpile is probably well below 200.
Sweden - probably less than 200.
As a reminder, Russia is producing something on the order of 130 - 150 tactical ballistic or hypersonic missiles per month.
This reminds me of the question Churchill put to Air Marshall Dowding: How many squadrons must we hold back to defend England if France falls? The French wanted every airplane England had; Ukraine wants every missile.
v/r pete
