June 24th, 2026

Politics - Poland - Ukraine tensions

- Kremlin comments on Stalmer resignation: no change 

Combat Ops - No change on ground

- Air operations continue 

- Moscow refinery - out for 6 months?

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

76 and mostly cloudy,  gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, daily highs around 80. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Concerning Poland - Ukraine tensions:

I had not seen this before but on May 22nd, Ukraine’s president, prime minister, parliament speaker, and several other ministers and several generals attended the reburial, with full honors, of the remains of Andriy Melnyk and his wife Sofiya at a military cemetery outside Kyiv, which President Zelenskyy said was due in “respect for Ukrainian heroes.”

 Melnyk was the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (Orhanizatsiia Ukrainskykh Natsionalistiv - OUN), that sought to create an independent, ethnically homogenous, Ukraine; he died in West Germany in 1964. 

The OUN split early during WWII into OUN-M, led by Melnyk, and OUN-B, led by Bandera. OUN-B was responsible for the massacre of roughly 100,000 Poles, OUN-M  collaborated with Nazi Germany until 1944 when Melnyk was arrested by the Gestapo, but later used by the German government to negotiate support for the German army as they retreated across Ukraine. Melnyk continued to lead OUN-M after the war, advocating for a pan-Ukraine movement. 

(Note: the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is named Andrii Melnyk, but there is no indication he is related to the older Melnyk.)

Four days after the reburial, on May 26th, President Zelenskyy gave Special Operations Command North the honorific “Heroes of the UPA.”

While Poland’s President Nawrocki has taken a very dim view of these actions, Poland PM Tusk posted:

“A conflict between Poland and Ukraine delights Putin and shocks our allies. The frontline lies elsewhere.”

The Kremlin commented on UK’s PM Stalmer and his resignation: 

"There are many questions about whether things could improve after him, but it is unlikely that anyone on Britain's political scene will have a position on our bilateral relations that differs significantly from Keir Starmer’s."

Meanwhile, Russian presidential aide Ushakov is criticizing the US for note fulfilling its part of the agreement reached in Anchorage last August, and that accordingly Moscow must now pursue a clear victory.

President Trump has emphasized since the first day of the talk that there was not agreement, commenting on August 15th that the talks were a good start but ate any agreement would require “a 2nd meeting” and that the second meeting would need to include President Zelenskyy.

Ground Operations

There were no confirmed changes to the front lines along the entire "forward edge of battle area” (FEBA), as both sides continued to strike at the other side’s Ground Lines of Communications (GLOC). 

Russian infiltrations continue, particularly in the center (Lyman area southward to Kostiantinivka and Pokrovsk), but there were no changes in the areas of control by either side. Russian squeezing of the salient south-east of Kostiantinivka continues but there is no indication that the salient has changed in size or shape.

Each side asserts it is doing well, and a Ukrainian army spokesman claim that GLOC interdiction is proceeding so well that in southern Ukraine ammunition now must be hand carried - that is, Russian troops are walking, to the front from 50 kilometers (30 miles) in the rear; there is no independent reporting that supports the claim and it would make the use of any artillery at all impossible as the rounds couldn’t get forward, yet artillery fire continues; the claim strains credulity.

One item of interest is a Ukrainian report that total Russian FPV strikes (with fiber optic tethered drones) into Kharkiv (presumably the metro area of the city) exceeded 9,000 since the beginning of May (roughly 180 per day). In response, many of Kharkiv’s roads have been covered with netting to try to disrupt the drone flight.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian drones struck targets in Crimea, to include Kerch, and there was a power outage in Sevastopol.

Ukrainian drones were also reported last night and early today over Nizhniy Novgorod (250 miles east of Moscow) with Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down 23 drones. At least 2 civilians were killed and 2 wounded.  

Reuters is reporting, quoting anonymous sources, that the Moscow oil refinery (which produces about 225,000 barrels per day) struck several days ago (on the 16th and again on the 17th) - the largest producer of gasoline in the Moscow area, will be out of commission for 6 months. 

Russian Deputy PM for Energy Novak has commented that Russia is considering banning exports of diesel fuel, and acknowledged that there are gasoline shortages in certain regions of the country; rationing is already being enforced over much of Russia. 

During the night of June 23rd-24th Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil and gas infrastructure and in the last few hours appear to have struck the natural gas processing plant in Orenburg (650 miles south-east of Moscow, near the Kazakstan border); three separate explosions were reported at the facility.

During the night of June 23rd-June 24th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1x ballistic missile and 101 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 95 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 2 civilian killed and 6 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

President Putin commented on the various Ukrainian drone attacks:

"First and foremost, the task of eliminating these threats lies with the Ministry of Defence and other security agencies. The government of the Russian Federation must also take additional measures to minimise, to reduce to zero, the consequences of such actions."

Ukrainian drones struck facilities in Kerch, Mariupol, and north-west Crimea, at least on bridge was struck in Crimea, and power outages were reported in north-west Crimea and in Mariupol.

During the night of June 22nd-June 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (type know) and 135 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 118  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Odessa oblasts; the ballistic missile struck in Dnipro city. Reporting is a bit garbled, there may have been a second ballistic missile striking in Kryvyi Rih.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun23 Jun24

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 77.25 73.51

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 73.29 69.89

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.25 3.19

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.05 6.06

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 74.55 74.90

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.85 44.88

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 64.42 62.35

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 75.97 75.97

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.33 71.14

Thoughts

I saw an argument that Belarus is “effectively a co-belligerent with Russia” and that therefore a Ukrainian strike against Belarus infrastructure that supports the Russian war effort is “therefore not escalatory.”

Whether Russia would see it that way is, of course, the question. It’s worth noting that just this past Friday EU Council President Costa said:

“The European Union is not—and we do not intend to be—mediators. We have been with Ukraine through the war and we will be with Ukraine after the war.”

In as much as the EU is funding the war, and has stated they are on Ukraine’s side, are training Ukrainian troops, providing weapons and intelligence, and doesn’t want to negotiate, this would all seem to be trending into some dark gray areas.

v/r pete       

June 23rd, 2026

Politics - Poland - Ukraine strain continues, Medal returned 

Combat Ops - Slow on the ground, but Kostiantinivka is of concern 

- Drone wars continue  

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow, partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

86 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

79 and mostly cloudy,  gusting over 25. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, daily highs around 80. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Poland - Ukraine diplomatic discord continues.

Yesterday, President Zelenskyy returned the “Order of the White Eagle” to Poland after Poland’s President Nawrocki called for stripping Zelenskyy of the award.

As you’ll recall, on May 26th Zelenskyy gave Ukraine’s Special Operations Command North the honorific “Heroes of the UPA.” The UPA [ Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia - Ukrainian Insurgent Army] was the army of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B - under Stepan Bandera), whose goal was an ethnically and religiously homogenous Ukraine, and which at one time or another fought against nearly every possible side in WWII. At one point the UPA sided with Nazi Germany and took part in anti-Jewish pogroms, and the UPA also fought the Polish underground, and massacred Poles at Volhynia (50,000 - 60,000) and Eastern Galicia (25,000) as well as smaller killings, with a total estimate of having killed more than 100,000 Poles.

Nawrocki, noting that Poland’s "pain threshold" had been exceeded, posted on Friday:

“The Ukrainian Insurgent Army remains above all a formation responsible for cruel crimes against the citizens of the Polish Republic during World War II.”

President Zelenskyy posted:

“We believed that the Order of the White Eagle, awarded in 2023, was meant for the Ukrainian People and our army. That is what was said at the time. Today, I ‌sent the Order back to the President of ‌Poland.”

On Saturday, Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Budanov; Ukraine’s ambassador Bodnar and ForMin Sybiha also said they would return awards from Poland.

Budanov posted:

“Our nations have long-standing relations and different pages of history – both heroic and tragic. However, this should be an occasion for deep reflection, not crude political speculation.”

Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN Andrii Melnyk commented that Ukraine the UN needs to act on the war, that Ukraine’s patience “is not endless.”

“Ukraine stands ready to engage in direct negotiations with Russia to secure a just and lasting peace in accordance with the U.N. Charter, but our patience is not endless.”

“If the Security Council would further choose a wait-and-see approach, I cannot exclude that Ukraine may recalibrate and modify its offer. Ceasefire along the de facto front line is ‌already a great compromise.”

Ground Operations

Along most of the line there is, as expected, little change. In several spots there are small Russian gains: north of Hulyiapole and west of Vovchansk (north of Kharkiv). Elsewhere, east of Vovchansk, Russian forces straightened the line and “filled in” a small, would-be salient. 

But there are two places on the line that are of note:

Neasr Lyman, Russian forces have made gains on the ground along the north-east edge of the city, and appear to have probed into the center of the city and now hold parts of Lyman. This is of note in that taking Lyman would allow Russian forces to directly pressure Slovyansk with artillery while beginning probes and infiltrating into the city.

At the same time, Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka and in the last several days appear to have pushed into the east and north-east sides of the city and Russian forces appear to have taken control of perhaps 1/2 to 2/3rds of the city. Against, depending on which reporting you follow, Russian forces occupy two large “pincers,” one on the west side, extending north-west about 3 miles from the T0504 roadway, and one on the east that extends perhaps 4 miles north-west from the same roadway. In between the two pincers is a salient that is not quite 2 miles wide and 3 miles long, which represents Ukrainian forces holding the center of the city.

Some force lay-downs suggest that Ukrainian control actually extends another 3 miles to the south-east, to the east edge of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, but most of the maps of the front line place this area either in Russian control or firmly in a no man’s land, that is, as contested terrain, rather than under Ukrainian control. 

Air and Maritime Operations

President Putin commented on the various Ukrainian drone attacks:

"First and foremost, the task of eliminating these threats lies with the Ministry of Defence and other security agencies. The government of the Russian Federation must also take additional measures to minimise, to reduce to zero, the consequences of such actions."

Ukrainian drones struck facilities in Kerch, Mariupol, and north-west Crimea, at least on bridge was struck in Crimea, and power outages were reported in north-west Crimea and in Mariupol.

Ukrainian General Staff reporting notes the June 21st strike on the Dubna Space Communications Center (about 65 miles north of Moscow), and imagery yesterday confirmed a fire at the facility, but there did not appear to be an interruption in broadcasts or telephone communications.

The Ukrainian drone strike effort has, per Meduza (a Russian opposition media company) now extended the medium range strike range out to the 15 - 20 mile range beyond the lines. Note that the bulk of the thousands of drones each side launches each day are looking for targets within just a few miles of launch point and those constitute the overwhelming bulk of all drones.

Of interest, A Russian blogger claims that the recent Ukrainian strike on the facility in Voronezh (about 300 miles south-south-east of Moscow) that makes components for several Russian missile systems, may have included a Storm Shadow missile (UK manufactured, 300 NM range) and perhaps an ERAM (Extended Range Attack Munition, US, 280NM)

During the night of June 22nd-June 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (type know) and 135 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 118  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts; the ballistic missile struck in Dnipro city.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded in these attacks..

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

On the 21st Russian drones struck the MV Victress (Panamanian flag (also reported as UK flag), 2,500 deadweight tons), en route Romania from Turkey; Victress is a dry cargo ship and was in the western Black Sea when struck. One crewman, from Egypt, was killed int the attack.

Ukrainian forces struck a ferry in the Kerch Strait, and oil tanks in Kerch port; partial blackouts reported in Crimea. Ukrainian drones were also reported in the Moscow area early on the 22nd, and at least one reportedly struck a “space communications center” in Dubna (Moscow area); and while there is a significant fire, the damage to the comms facility has not been confirmed. A blackout was reported in parts of Crimea earlier today.

During the night of June 21st-June 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 88 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79  drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; Russians strike bridge in Zaporizhzhia city; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 11 wounded in these attacks.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun22 Jun23

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 79.18 77.25

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 75.31 73.29

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.31 3.25

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.08 6.05

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 73.84 74.55

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.97 44.85

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 66.58 64.42

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 78.28 75.97

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 73.43 71.33

Thoughts

Concerning the situation on the ground, while the actual line of control remains vague, the trend line is not: Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka (and to a lesser extent Lyman) and Ukrainian forces inside the the first city in particular are being forced back. Video reports from soldiers and reporters cornered in the city sound dire, though it is likely the Ukrainian forces will hold longer than the tone of these reports. But the Russian squeeze of this de facto salient will continue and Ukrainian forces appear to lack the assets - infantry - to stop the Russian squeeze.

How long it might take Russian forces to take Kostiantinivka is anyone’s guess, it could be 1 or 2 months, it could be another 6 or 8. But short of a miracle, the city will fall.

Meanwhile, the drone wars continue. Press reporting has focused on the Ukrainian successes in Crimea and in particular around Moscow. But, two points are worth remembering: first, while the strikes are dramatic, Russian refinery excess capacity remains and the Russian oil industry has mostly adjusted to these strikes.

Second, while these strikes continue, so do Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid, which is less robust than the Russian oil industry.

Nor does there appear to be any indication at all that the leadership or the population of either country wishes to give in, in the face of these attacks. If anything, they are growing more angry. 

v/r pete