September 23rd, 2026
Politics - Trump, Zelenskyy meet
- Rubio meets with Lavrov
Combat Ops - Missile and drone strikes continue
- Ground operations slow, marginal changes
Weather
Ground fog has been reported along the front lines over the last several days, particularly in the center (around the fortress belt), degrading reconnaissance drones effectiveness, and benefitting Russian forces attempting to infiltrate forward.
Kharkiv
61 and rain, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to cloudy through the rest of the week and through the weekend, more rain starting Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
68 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Monday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
57 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow, then mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain on Monday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 10kts.
Politics
President Trump met with President Zelenskyy in New York City. Trump and Zelenskyy are working to reach some sort of ceasefire before winter, and, in the interim Trump is calling for both countries to stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure.
Trump said he believes both leaders (Zelenskyy and Putin) want to see the war end. Trump commented:
“It’s time. A lot of people [are] being killed, and they don’t want that. We continue efforts to end the catastrophic war between Russia and Ukraine, and it is time to stop the killings.”
He later added:
“It’s going to happen, I think, more quickly than people understand.”
Zelenskyy commented:
“I hope that we will end this war, and President Trump will help us to end this war. And I think that we [need] to do [it] as quick as possible before winter.”
“Both the U.S. and Ukraine want to see this senseless Russian war ended before winter. We discussed potential de-escalatory steps that can open up the way to diplomacy.”
During their meeting Zelenskyy asked Trump about the possibility of using Starlink for deep strikes into Russia; Trump referred Zelenskyy to Elon Musk.
“You need to talk to Elon about this,” he answered.
SecState Rubio met with ForMin Lavrov, but no details of their discussion have been released.
Ground operations
The grind continues along the entire front line, with few if any changes.
Ukrainian reporting suggests some increases in Russian activity in the Kupyansk area (along the Oskil River), and there is reporting suggesting some additional Russian forces have been moved into the general area of Kupyansk, but there are few details.
Further south, Ukrainian reporting supports the assessment that Russian forces have gained some ground north-east of Borova in the past several weeks.
At the same time, assessments on Ukrainian gains north-east of Lyman continue to be refined. Ukrainian forces did, indeed gain ground; some reports suggested roughly 300 square kilometers (about 100 square miles) terrain was retaken, but an assessment by Ukrainian sources released yesterday puts that number in the vicinity of 125 square kilometers, roughly 46 square miles. At this point, it does not appear that the Ukrainian forces have pushed as far east as the Zherebets River, and additional Russian forces have been moved into the area north-east of Lyman, along the Zherebets; there are now 12 Russian regiments in an area 12 miles north to south and 8 miles east to west.
Russian recon probes and continued infiltrations continue around Kostiantinivka, but there were no changes in the lines.
The other area of note is Ukrainian counter-attacks in south-east Orikhiv appear to have pushed Russian elements back to the east edge of the town and may have pushed them out of the town. As noted before, Ukrainian forces need to retain control of Orikhiv to maintain their tactical and operational positions across the south. The town is the logistics and personnel center for the south and the hub of tactical support along the line.
Conversely, for Russian forces to gain control of Orikhiv would gain them access to the east-west road network, and that would allow moving the southern front line northward enough to directly threaten Zaporizhzhia city.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
During September 21st and 22nd Ukrainian forces continued long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, hitting oil production facilities in Ufa (about 650 miles east of Moscow) and Samara (perhaps 450 miles south-east of Moscow). Commercial satellite imagery confirmed fires at both facilities. Full extent of the damage is not yet available.
Russian Forces
During the night of September 22nd-September 23rd Russian forces launched at least 161 strike drones and multiple Banderol loitering munitions into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 3 Banderol munitions, and 119 drones.
Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns with glide bombs.
Civilian casualties included at least 6 killed and 61 wounded.
Russia has struck a cargo ship flying the flag of Antigua and Barbuda in the Black Sea, off Odessa, according to the AMPU (Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority). A fire has broken out, and the crew has been evacuated. The ship's captain killed.
This is the first ship struck by Russian forces since September 17th
During the night of September 21st-September 22nd Russian forces launched Iskander ballistic missiles, Zircon missiles and Kalibr missiles, 8 x Banderol loitering munitions and 212 x strike drones and into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 cruise missile, 8 Banderol munitions, and 177 drones.
Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava oblasts. Targets included the power grid, warehouses, industrial facilities and logistics related targets. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr, oblasts. More than 100,000 houses were without power in Chernihiv alone.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Sep4 Sep8 Sep22 Sep23
Brent 94.71 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19 100.00 101.40
WTI 92.10 90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28 91.32 91.89
NG 3.97 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.95 2.95 2.96 2.98
Wheat 8.52 5.82 6.06 6.35 7.45 7.46 7.21 7.11
Ruble 85 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21 84.25 84.43
Hryvnia 28.6 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63 44.78 44.92
Urals 91.66 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44 107.50 107.23
ESPO 94.52 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44 123.40 101.75
Sokol 99.31 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09 103.83 103.83
There is no clear reporting on why Sokol prices haven’t changed in 5 days, but there is a world-wide shortage of tankers AND there was a reported deliberate shutdown of some of the facilities on Sakhalin in August for routine maintenance.
Thoughts
I received two interesting reports yesterday from two different correspondents; both provided new looks at subjects that have come up before: casualties, and demographics. Lots of numbers in the reports, I will try to keep this brief.
The first looked at the subject of amputations. The key consideration here is that there are substantive ratios between the number of amputations as a result of combat and the number of Killed In Action KIAs). The more effective the on-battlefield and immediate medical care, and the more effective the casualty evacuation process (what is generally referred to as MEDEVAC and CASEVAC), the lower the ratio. In Iraq and Afghanistan combined, US forces suffered some 5,500 KIAs and 1,645 Soldiers (Sailors, Marines, and Airmen) had amputations (and lived), a ratio of 3.3 to 1.
This is a remarkable number; the representative ratio for WWII (US forces) was 22 to 1 and for Vietnam 11 to 1. (There are few comprehensive numbers for Korea).
The article I was sent yesterday noted that the Ukrainian government reported “more than 60,000 amputees as of May 2025,” and other sources noted the number had already passed 100,000 at that time, 16 months ago.
Assuming that Ukrainian forces have the same CASEVAC capabilities as the US had in Iraq and Afghanistan (they do not), a 3.3 to 1 KIA to amputee ratio would suggest at least 200,000 KIAs as of May of last year, and perhaps, more than 300,000.
A second article raised the issue of Ukrainian demographics. These numbers have been raised before, but the number crunch, looking at net emigration, aging of the population, fertility rates, etc., etc., the question is asked: what will be Ukraine’s population in 30 years? The numbers are fascinating, if dark, and I will spare you too much detail. But…
When all the numbers are crunched, the answer is a Ukrainian population by 2055 of 9 to 11.5 million, that is, the population of Ukraine will shrink by 2/3rd in the next 30 years.
This does not take into account that as the population shrinks, the work force will also shrink and the nation’s economy will weaken. At a certain point more people would simply choose to leave as there would be no means to survive inside Ukraine.
v/r pete
