August 7th, 2026

- Ukraine and Poland

- Former Ambassador to US in court in Kyiv

- Ground Operations - little change

- Air Strikes continue on both sides

Politics

Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service reported that the net outflow of Ukrainian citizens for the first 6 months of 2026 was 244,300; that is 244,000 Ukrainians left and have not returned. During the first six months of 2025 some 251,000 more left than returned.

The German Interior Ministry has issued a clarification: the Ukrainian AN-124 cargo plane that was on the ground in Leipzig during the evening of August 5th, and apparently attacked by a drone - with no damage done - was NOT carrying weapons from France to Ukraine. The aircraft was, per the Ministry, empty.

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Poland (Vasyl Bodnar) commented on the need for Ukrainian citizens to determine how Ukrainian society will regard Stepan Bandera and the national liberation movement of the 30s and 40s.

"Ukraine will be in the EU. And with Bandera? But we must, first of all, determine for ourselves whether we are going with Bandera, whether we are going with the Ukrainian people and with what we want to achieve in this EU.” 

"The truth is that among the UPA [Ukrainian Insurgent Army] there were criminals who killed Poles. But among the Poles and the Polish underground there were a large number of equally criminal acts.”

"But are you sure that Stepan Bandera is the most important hero of Ukraine? He is one of them. One of those who needs appropriate honoring. He is one of the leaders of the national liberation movement, and this needs to be talked about. But we also need to talk about that side of this national liberation movement, which had its dark sides.”

Following President Zelenskyy’s bestowing the title of “Heroes of the UPA” on the “Independent Center for Special Operations North,” Polish President Nawrocki removed the award of the Order of the White Eagle from Zelenskyy. Further, 

Poland’s Deputy PM and MinDef Kosiniak-Kamysz called the naming a obstacle to Ukraine’s EU entry, and the European Parliament called the naming an “unprovoked escalation.”

Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy has asked the European Commission for 220 million euros ($250 million) in non-refundable support to pay interest on loans to Ukrainian agricultural business. Minister Vysotskyi noted:

"Due to Russia's blockade of sea exports, thousands of Ukrainian farmers cannot sell their already grown products and receive funds to continue their work. That is why we have appealed to the European Commission with a proposal to support Ukrainian producers by compensating for interest on loans. This will allow farmers to maintain liquidity, conduct the autumn sowing campaign and avoid forced sales of products at low prices.” 

Projected Ukrainain agricultural exports for the 2026-2027 year was 64.4 million tons of grains and boils. But, due to attacks onto port facilities, the current estimate is that the total may only reach 29.6 million tons, a 54% decrease.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US since August 2025, was dismissed by President Zelenskyy on August 3rd. No reason was given at first but it now appears that she is accused of “illegal enrichment” and “failing to declare assets” (false filings). 

She reportedly hid two apartments and other assets worth a total of $310,000. 

The former Ambassador appeared in court in Kyiv on Wednesday, the High Anti Corruption Court set bail at UAH 6 million (about $134,000).

Lithuanian DefMin Kaunas is warning of  Russian use of Ukrainian drones to strike targets in the Baltic states.

“We have information that Russia is considering carrying out unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this.”

“Since Ukraine successfully attacks Russia, some of the Ukrainian drones are intercepted by Russia while defending themselves, and some of the drones crash.”

Ground Operations

Overall, the situation onto ground continues to reflect marginal gains at various point along the line, but little of tactical substance, with the exception that Russian recon probes and infiltrations into and through Kostiantinivka and into the terrain immediately south-east and south of Druzhivka, as well as the terrain just south-east of Dobropillia (north-north-east of Pokrovsk). Ukrainain sources also note an increase in the number of Russian infiltrations in the towns and villages in an arc from the general area north of Pokrovsk over to the western edge of Kostiantinivka. 

None of this changes control, rather it is more of the slow, “rock-soup” Russian tactic, working forward very slowly, generating casualties and very slowly taking ground. Russian forces appear willing to take some losses in terrain elsewhere as long as the grind continues in key areas, particularly around Kostiantinivka and north of Pokrovsk.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces 

During the August 5th-August 6th time frame Ukrainain forces struck the 

Slavneft-Yanos Oil Refinery in Yaroslavl City ((about 150 miles north-east of Moscow), with a resulting fire. Imagery from the 6th showed a fire at the facility.

Ukrainian forces again struck the Bashneft-Novoil Oil Refinery in Ufa (about 650 miles east of Moscow).

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin commented that a total of 6,225 Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow in July, which he claimed was 2/3rd of all Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russia; this would suggest a total number of drone and missile strikes into Russia on the order of 9,000 - 10,000 for the month, which appears to be roughly consistent with other reporting.

Russian Forces

During the August 6th-August 7th time frame Russian forces launched 114 Strike drones into Ukraine airspace. The UAF shot down or defeated with EW 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. A power outage was reported in Lviv

Civilian casualties included at least 5 killed and 14 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 towns.

On August 6th Russian forces struck the bulk carrier Mera Queen (5200 tons, Guinea Bissau flag) off Odessa, killing one crew and wounding 3 sailors. 

Forbes reports that Russian strikes on the grain handling and related port facilities has, among other things, destroyed 400,000 square meters - 4.3 million sq ft (about 99 acres) of warehouses.

Overall, Russian glide bomb use for July exceeded 8,300, an average of 267 per day.

Comment on drone strikes: Much has been made about the fact that both sides are flying more than 10,000 FPV drones per day (best guess right now is Ukrainian forces about 15,000 per day, and Russian forces about 12,000 per day). Further, depending on whose numbers you believe, between 40% and 60% of those sorties result in a “target struck.”

Assuming that there is a soldier associated with each of those “targets” (they are each destroying no more than scores of vehicles per day, not even 100), shouldn’t that translate into at least 5,000 casualties per day?

The answer is no. Videos readily found on line regularly show soldiers getting attacked and knocked down, only to get up a minute or so later. A recent video showed an old man, not in very good shape, struck in a parking lot; the drone seems to explode as it comes in contact with his back. We later learn he was treated by medics and walked away. 

But video “BDA” would report this as a successful strike.

Thoughts

It will be interesting to see how Ambassador Bodnar’s argument resonates with Poland.

The Border Guard report on net departures needs to be taken with a grain of salt. 

The Border Guard noted 251,000 net departures for the first half of 2025. And other reports noted that some 78,000 men aged 18 - 22 left - net - after the August change in the law that allowed them to depart, but then the total for al of 2025 is given as 290,300.

Other, unofficial, sources suggest that net departures may be well over 100,000 per month. But, best case, accepting the Border Guard numbers as dead-on accurate, a net of 534,600 departed Ukraine in the last 18 months: 1.5% of the total population. Again, other reports suggest that is a LOW number.

Polish Border Guards noted that, in the 5 months between September 2025 and January this year 184,000 Ukrainian men aged 18-22 entered Poland, but they do not track how many returned.

Germany’s Ministry of the Interior however notes that before the law in August 2025, they were receiving 19 young Ukrainian males per week, but that climbed to 1,800 per week by October. Further, Germany’s Immigration Office notes that, between March of 2025 and May 2026, the number of Ukrainain military age males registered in Germany increased 58,000, from 297,600 to 355,745.

Just a few week ago Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s PM from 2020 - 2025, and now the Deputy PM for Energy, commented that he believes that most of the people who have left Ukraine are not coming back.

v/r pete  

 August 6th, 2026

Politics

Former DefMin Fedorov is still hopeful he will return as defense minister when the Verkhovna Rada returns from summer recess on August 18th. 

"I currently have no moral right to engage in anything else, because while people are fighting for tomorrow and my name is being mentioned, people believe this can be done, and today there is no clear 'no', I believe we always have a chance.”

"This may be a temporary situation, but it cannot go on for long … so it is very important that this process has a certain deadline.”

"Let's wait until we pass those dates, [August 18th] and then I will talk more about my path and what we will do. I have options B, C, D, and so on.”

"It is important to work towards our victory, to implement the plan we discussed, because we do not have hundreds of teams with hundreds of people who understand the war and are ready to serve their country 24/7. So we will find a format in which we will serve our country regardless.”

Airport personnel in Leipzig sighted a drone between to AN-124 cargo aircraft, an aircraft owned by the Ukrainian Antonov airline, and after the drone hit one of the ground crew, it fell to the ground. It was later determined to have explosives on it. At least one of the two AN-124s were carrying explosives from France to be delivered to Ukraine. 

The Polish “Law and Justice” party has drafted a law that would order the deportation of Ukrainain men of conscription age who do not have a job. Poland’s Department of Labor estimates that there are at least 11,000 such individuals.

Ground Operations

Overall there were small changes on the ground with both sides posting some gains. 

North of the Donets River, south-east of Borova, Ukrainain forces were confirmed in imagery to have gained some ground south of the town of Novovodyane and may have made if it across the Zherebets river just south of the town.

Ukrainian forces also have pushed into the small village of Zirka, on Sunday and Monday, about 2 miles south of the Vovcha River, south-south-west of Fillia, continuing Ukrainain gains in this area.

Russian forces continue infiltrations in several towns north-east and east of Slvoyansk and continue to make slow gains east of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and mandatory evacuation of children from 424 families have been ordered in villages east of Kramatorsk.

Further south, imagery confirms Russian recon probes and infiltrations continue into the western and north-western ends of Kostiantinivka and appear to have reached the eastern edge of Druzhivka. It now appears that 100% of Kostiantinivka has been, at one time or another in the past 8 or 9 months, probed by Russian infiltration elements.

Russian forces also continued a series of infiltrations in villages along an arc from south-west about 6 miles to about 12 miles north-west of Hulyaipole.

And on Tuesday a Russian Recon probe was confirmed to have entered the south-east edge of Orikhiv, and were moving along the first row of houses. This is, I believe, the first time Russian troops have penetrated Orikhiv.

Air Operations

Both Ukrainain and Russian forces continued their strikes on logistics infrastructure. Of note, During the night of August 4th-August 5th Russian forces struck with a relatively small package, primarily focused on Kyiv (24 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Zircon missiles and 115 strike drones), but Ukrainain forces were able to only shoot down 98 drones. The 28 missiles and 17 strike drones “got through.” The Ukrainian reporting notes that they are now out of Patriot missiles and were unable to engage any of the missiles.

Civilian casualties included 16 killed and 29 wounded in the Kyiv area.

Ukrainain Deputy PM Shmyhal commented that, as of 03 August, Russian strikes has cumulatively resulted in damage to 80% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity and there is now a 6 gigawatt shortfall.

Ukrainian forces also continued strikes on the Wildberries warehouses and on Russian oil infrastructure. Yesterday drones again struck the oil refineries in Ufa, and photographs showed fire and smoke, though the full extent of the damage is not yet known.

In a related development, Ukrainain Military Intelligence reports that a North Korean unit is deploying to western Russia with 120 ballistic missiles (unknown designation), 6 launchers and 90 troops (which seems very low). Ukrainian Intelligence claims that unit will deploy to the Voronezh area (about 250 miles south-south-east of Moscow, with the 112th Missile Bde (Russian army).

In addition, Ukrainain Intelligence reports that North Korea recently transferred 40 x Kn-23 (Hwasong-11A, 500 miles, 3,000 lb warhead) and 24 x Kn-24 (Hwasong-11b, 250 miles, 1,000lb warhead)  ballistic missiles to Russia.

112th Guards Novorossiyskaya Missile Brigade is garrisoned at Shuya, about 100 miles north-east of Moscow. The unit was equipped with the Iskander ballistic missiles, with a 300 mile range and a 1500lb warhead.

Accuracy of the North Korean missiles was very poor when first used (200meter for the both the 11a and 11b at full range), but reportedly Russian assistance has substantially improved accuracy. 

As for the numbers, this is a good many missiles for a single brigade. Normal Russian organization is 2 x launchers per battery, 2 batteries per battalion, 3 battalions per brigade, so 12 launchers per brigade. Each launcher has 2 missiles and 2 reloads, so 48 total missiles for a fully loaded brigade.

Thoughts

Fedorov is still holding out hope to return, and a recent poll shows that Ukrainians trust him more than President Zelenskyy. A poll last week of 2,000 Ukrainians showed the following levels of trust (fully trust / partial trust / partial do not trust / do not trust):

Amb. (Former CINC) Zaluzhnyi 27.8% / 37.1% / 11.6% / 18.1%

Fedorov  26.8% /37.8% / 8.5% / 16.3%

‘Magyar’ Brovdi (UAV forces) 25.4% / 25.8% / 7.4% / 17.7%

Gen Drapatyi (new CINC) 24%

Budanov (President’s COS) 23.8%

Pres. Zelenskyy 18% / 24.5% / 17% / 37%

Polls should always be taken with a grain of salt: how the people polled are picked, how the questions are asked, etc. Still, it must give Zelenskyy pause that he is not trusted as much as his Chef of Staff, never mind Gen. Zaluzhnyi, who has been regularly named as his real political rival since before he was fired in early 2024. 

What is more interesting, I think is that Fedorov is still holding onto the idea that he will return, though it would seem to me that for him to return would be to de facto undercut Zelenskyy’s authority, which would certainly not help the county. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine has no Patriot missiles and Russia is getting more ballistic missiles - courtesy of North Korea - to continue to strike the Ukrainain the power grid.

v/r pete     

 

August 4th, 2026    Next Summary August 6th   

Politics - Zaluzhnyi - NATO not up to Ukrainian standards

Combat Ops - No real changes on the ground

- Strikes continue

- “War at sea” is an issue

Weather

Kharkiv

89 and partly cloudy. Sunny through Friday, thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds northerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

92 and sunny, scattered showers. Mostly sunny through Saturday, thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the upper 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

88 and sunny. Mostly sunny through Friday morning, Friday afternoon and Saturday will see showers and thunderstorms. Daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ukraine’s Ambassador Zaluzhnyi (UK), former CINC of the Ukrainian armed forces, poked hard at NATO, at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors in Kyiv.

"I know NATO very well. For 12 years, I must have personally been working to ensure that we mastered NATO standards, and every year I listened to tales that we were about to join NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join it!”

"Most likely, NATO will remain in the same form as it is, and will be for 12 years, like Ukraine, moving to the standards that need to be achieved in order to be at least half the level of the Russian federation.”

"Ukraine needs technologies that are still available in NATO countries today [PATRIOT], it is impossible to join an organization that possesses the doctrines of World War II with the level of development that exists in the armed forces of Ukraine."

Ground operations 

Overall, the situation on the ground is little changed. Infiltrations continue, primarily by Russian forces but also in counter-attack by Ukrainian forces in certain areas. But there are no significant changes in the lines and only a few small, marginal gains. Nevertheless, the fighting continues with the same intensity with an average of more than 200 Russian assaults per day (virtually all less than a platoon in size) across the length of the line.

In the south-east, Ukrainian military reports that Ukrainian forces have gained some ground in the terrain just south-west of Fillia, across the Vovcha river (about a mile south-west of Fillia), pushing about a mile along the west bank of the Mokri Yaly river. Several smaller Ukrainian gains have also been reported along the lines further to the south-west, but have not been confirmed.

Ukrainian sources also report that in the "fortress cities” - Kostiantinivka, Druzhivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk - Russian glide bombs are now seemingly a daily event, each city being struck several times per day by glide bombs. These strikes continue to break Ukrainian hard points and support further Russian infiltration efforts.

There have also been several more glide bombs strikes on Pavlohrad city (about 50 miles north-west of Pokrovsk). Russian forces are not infiltrating Pavlohrad, but this city is now acting as a logistics and personnel hub to support the center of the line. Glide bomb strikes will obviously degrade logistics support to the front.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian strikes again hit Wildberries warehouses as well as two oil facilities. Oil facilities struck were:

The oil refinery in Syzran - 450 miles south-east of Moscow

The oil facility in Kstovo - 275 miles east-north-east of Moscow 

Warehouses were hit in the Moscow and St Petersburg areas. 

Casualty reports included 15 civilians killed and 56 wounded.

The Cameroon flagged RO/RO Nadezhda (Turkish crew, Turkish owner, 390 feet, 4,400 dead weight tons) was struck by a drone 30 miles outside Novorossiysk. 4 members of the crew were injured. The ship was carrying a load of fresh fruit and vegetables from Samsun, Turkey to Novorossiysk.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian shipping continue; since the start on July 6th, Operation Molochkha (Молочка = milk, and is also a colloquial for milk products) has struck 129 ships in the Sea of Azov and 72 in the Black Sea. Per the Ukrainian unit commander, the intention is to damage but not sink the ships.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 3rd-August 4th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 136 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 117 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and  Sumy oblasts.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. The port facility in Mykolaiv was again struck, damaging 3 ships.

Civilian casualties include at least  4 killed and 34 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.

Russian strikes into Odessa and other Ukrainian ports had, as reported several weeks ago, reduced total loading capacity from 6 million tons per month to 4 million. Amid the continuing strikes, there is no timeline as to when repairs will be affected, and there has been some additional damage in the last 3 weeks; the greater Odessa area ports account for 90% of Ukraine’s grain and oils export.

Russia has also begun regular strikes on ships entering and leaving Odessa ports, with at least 28 ships damaged, 10 sailors killed another 34 wounded. And, strikes on both off-loading facilities and on trains themselves has caused the Ukraine state railroad to limit certain train travel into Odessa.

During the night of August 2nd-August 3rd Russian forces launched at least 181 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 163 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Russina droens also struck a a civilan tugboat in Odessa.

Civilian casualties include at least  4 killed and 33 wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug3 Aug4

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 83.45 83.54

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 79.51 79.61

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.76 2.71

Wheat     8.52  5.79 6.14   5.82   6.06 6.39 6.47

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 80.15 80.60

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.89 44.64

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 87.50 85.21

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 87.62 80.77

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 78.30 79.91

Thoughts

File this under speculation, but I have a sense that the last 4 - 6 weeks have marked another shift in the war. As noted on July 24th, the Russian Rassvet satellite constellation is now in an initial operations phase and Russian forces are using it to support longer range strikes into Ukraine and presumably to provide better command and control for strikes on “near rear” Ukrainian GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication). These were the strikes - the logistics interdiction effort - that Russian forces had developed and honed in 2024-2025 using Starlink, which produced gains in 2025, but which was denied them at the start of February this year. This is also the process that was adopted by Ukraine (DefMin Fedorov) beginning at the start of this year that showed real success in limiting Russian gains.

But it now seems, and there is more of feel than hard data on this, that the Russian attacks on Ukrainian logistics has become just a bit more effective in the last month and that Ukrainian forces, which seem to have challenged Russian forces for the initiative in the past 4 or 5 months, may again be losing it to the Russians. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on the Russian oil industry and on other elements of the economy continue, but arguably, Russia is adapting - as Ukraine has - and people are learning to live with the pain. 

None of this means large or rapid changes in the battlefield, as it remains “not that kind of war.” But it will add greater strain to an already strained nation, on top of the continuing Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid. 

All told, I think both countries will have hard winters, but it appears at this point that the continuing grinding damage done to the Ukrainian power grid will make this winter in Kyiv worse than last.

v/r pete