March 10th, 2026 NEXT SUMMARY NEXT WEEK
Politics - Negotiations postponed
- Hungarian situation continues to brew
Combat Ops - Some few small Ukrainian gains
Economics - Oil prices mostly down a bit
Weather
Spring seems to have arrived, the thaw will continue; mud season has arrived.
Kharkiv
56 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny all week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
57 and sunny. Sunny all week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
55 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows for the next week in the low 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds south-westerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy posted yesterday that the US has asked to postpone the scheduled trilateral negotiations session set for later this week due to the current situation in the Mid East.
Russian news agency Interfax reported that President Putin sent a congratulatory note to Mojtaba Khamanei on his selection as Supreme Leader, noting that he will need "great courage and dedication.”
"I am confident that you will honorably continue the work of your father and unite the Iranian people in the face of severe trials. Russia has been and will remain a reliable partner of the Islamic Republic. I wish you success in solving the difficult tasks before you, as well as good health and strength of spirit.”
President Trump spoke to Putin by phone yesterday. President Trump noted that they discussed the war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East.
"Yes, I had a very good call with President Putin. We had a lot of people on the line from our side, from his side. We were talking about Ukraine, which is just a never-ending fight and when, look, there's tremendous hatred between President Putin and President Zelenskyy. They can't seem to get it together.”
Overall, Trump called the conversation “positive.” Then he added that they talked about the Middle East.
"We obviously talked then about the Middle East and he wants to be helpful. I said you could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine Russia war over with, that would be more helpful. But we had a very good talk and he wants to be very constructive.”
The funds seized by Hungarian authorities from couriers for the Ukrainian Oschadbank have not been returned. Hungarian Transport Minister Lázár has stated they will not be returned until the Druzhba pipeline is again operational and oil is flowing.
"We know that Ukrainians are very nervous … if they are blackmailing us, we cannot be so stupid as to let it go. We did not do what we did by accident, we will not return their money. The money will remain here for now, we are waiting for the opening of the oil pipeline and for new Ukrainian cash supplies through Hungary.”
Yesterday a decree, signed by PM Orban, was released that states that Hungarian authorities have been unable to establish ownership of the cash and gold.
At the same time, Hungary’s National Assembly (their legislature) voted 142 for, 28 against, with 4 abstentions, on a bill opposing Ukrainian entry into the European Union (there are 199 total members in the assembly).
The same bill also called for no more money or weapons to be sent to Ukraine.
Ground Operations
Overall, there was little change in the lines along the entire front, despite a steady amount of activity, both in probes and in drone and artillery strikes. (Russian forces also continue to support ground operations with air strikes with glide bombs). While Russian forces appear to maintain the initiative in most area, Ukrainian forces have pushed back and there have been some gains at the western end of the line (along the Dnepr River) as well as in the fighting in the southeast, around Hulyaipole and north of Hulyaipole.
South-east of Kupyansk imagery confirmed Ukrainian troops in the town of Podoly, but it isn't clear whether the Russians actually controlled the town or had simply had probes in the town as well.
Fighting continues in the east end of Kostianitnivka and just east of that town and has evolved into another checkerboard fight, with Ukrainian and Russian elements interlaced across the east end of the town and in terrain perhaps 2 miles east of the city.
In Hulyaipole there is an interesting development: a Ukrainian element appears to have moved quickly up the T0814 roadway and seized a block of houses in the western end of the city. They are now at the end of a 4 mile long, 1 road wide salient. Ukrainian forces now need to reinforce or this element will be quickly squeezed.
Ukrainian forces are also reportedly counter-attacking in the Prymorske area and have, at a minimum, halted Russian movements, with some reports suggesting they have pushed Russians back from Prymorske, though there are other conflicting and contradictory reports.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of March 8th-March 9th Russian forces launched at least 137 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 122 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.
Civilian casualties include at least 6 killed and 42 wounded..
RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.
Ukrainian forces claimed they struck the Acron chemical plant in Veliky Novgorod (about 75 miles south-south-east of St. Petersburg) on the 9th, and images show a fire in the vicinity of the plant. The plant produces fertilizer.
During the night of March 8th-March 9th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 197 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 161 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Poltava, and Zaporizhia oblasts; the two ballistic missiles struck power grid targets in Odessa.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, the NAFTOGAZ production facility in Poltava was struck again.
Civilian casualties not reported.
RuAF tacair struck 18 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Mar10
Brent 94.71 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 92.17
WTI 92.10 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 89.13
NG 3.97 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 3.13
Wheat 8.52 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.99
Ruble 85 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.61
Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.86
Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 100.67
ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 97.96
Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 91.81
Thoughts
The fighting in Kostiantinivka is of note; depending on how you interpret it, each side is doing better or worse than expected. The city was hailed by Ukrainians as a real fortress, with the implication that the Russians would find it impossible to storm. The Russians have proceeded to regularly send small probes into the city and probes have reached more than half the city, though they hold very little. Now it appears to me that, east of the main roadway, the fight is taking on what has become the regular confused ground situation regularly seen over the last 2 years as the Russians grind down each city and town.
Ukrainian sources note that Ukrainians still hold some ground in eastern Kostiantinivkla, but miss the point that they were supposed to hold all of it.
That said, it’s the high ground on the south-west side of the River (the west side of the city) that is the real ”hard nut to crack,” and Russian forces have not begun to probe that area.
At the same time, further south, the small Ukrainian counter-offensive - about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole, continues to hold terrain. And Ukrainian officers - regimental commanders - are now suggesting that it was a counter-offensive, not simply some sort of ad hoc break through.
That said, they also noted that they fully expect a Russian Spring Offensive, probably in the Pokrovsk - Kostiantinivka area, and note that the small counter-offensive was successful because they pierced a section of the line where the Russians had not yet built a new, forward defensive line. They noted that the Russians are now building new defensive lines in the Pokrovsk area.
As I guessed, it appears the limited counter offensive slowed to a crawl as they came within range of the first prepared Russian defensive lines - about 8 miles deep into Russian held terrain.
I think we might learn something about the actual depth of Russian strategic reserves in the next 4 months. If the Russians can grind down the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south, AND grind down the east end of Kostiantinivka, AND finish the consolidation of Pokrovsk, then Russian reserves are sound. If they don’t manage all three simultaneously, then it’s a different problem and they’ll be susceptible to pressure.
As for the Ukrainians, they may want to hold the ground gained in this limited counter-offensive, or withdraw to more defensible lines in this area and shift forces to meet the Russian spring offensive. That will be a decision based on the extent of Ukrainian strategic reserve.
v/r pete
