August 20th, 2026

Politics - Fedorov statement walked back?

Combat Ops - Little change on the ground

- USV destroyed off Romania

- Strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

83 and clear, gusting to 20. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

79 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Following the confirmation of the new MinDef and ForMin, and the statement by former MinDef Fedorov calling for elections, there has been a flurry of statements which appear to be trying to defuse the situation.

Dmytro Koziatnskyi, a former Ukrainian army medic who was allowed to leave the army last year, and was the major organizer of the pro-Fedorov protests across the country during last month, issued a statement, noting that the protests did succeed in forcing the removal of Gen Syrskyi, and led to the appointment of Gen. Drapaty as the new CINC of the army.

As for elections, he noted:

“I view elections during wartime negatively—I can't imagine how to technically enable thousands of soldiers currently on the front lines to vote and run for office. I'm also deeply concerned about the societal divisions during the election process and how that could affect the course of the war. In any case, street protests are definitely not the place for electoral discourse.”

“It is unfortunate that we have still failed to establish a dialogue between the authorities and society. I hope that this issue will be resolved in time because, in my opinion, the lack of communication was the root cause of these protests. As I have said repeatedly, for me these protests were about dialogue and reforms, not individuals. Therefore, I want to wish Mr. Khmara success in his new position and sincerely hope that he will continue the course toward reforms and combating corruption in the defense sector.”

"We are in a full-scale war; elections in Ukraine are impossible. So talking now about elections, calculating some ratings, political campaigning... It looks so ridiculous that I cannot imagine how anyone could even think about this now.”

Serhii Sternenko, an advisor to Fedorov also commented:

"Elections are unacceptable in any form as long as the full-scale aggression continues. This will tear the country apart from within.”

Whether Fedorov agreed with that statement is unknown; there has been no follow-on statement by Fedorov yet.

Ground Operations

Ukrainian forces made small gains south of Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), in the farmland north of the town of Bilyi Kolodyaz.

It appears that Ukrainian forces moved one tree line north across the farmland south of Karaichne - but that they only moved one tree line suggests the Russian presence is the area is enough to force Ukrainian forces to be slow and deliberate - suggesting that what appears on most maps to be unoccupied no mans land has a Russian forces presence of some sort.

There were also claims of Russian gains south-east of Kupyansk, but there is nothing to back up the claim.

Russian infiltration around Kostiantinivka continues; with imagery confirming that Russian troop hold positions in Osykove, the town on the north-west edge of Kostiantinivka, on the way to Druzhkivka.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Romanian AF F-16s destroyed a maritime drone (USV) this morning as it approached the Neptun Deep gas development platform, located about 80nm east of Constanta. 

The drone was spotted at 0628 local time and two F-16s were scrambled in response. One aircraft destroyed the drone within several hundred meters of the platform (presumably with guns, but the type weapon was not mentioned).

Romanian DefMin Miruta stated that the USV was carrying explosives, and has blamed Russia for the attack.

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ufa, and Ukrainian sources claim that one processing unit was “destroyed.”

The Ukrainian General Staff claims that the strike on August 14th-15th on Progress Space Launch Complex in Samara hit the Soyuz launch vehicle assembly workshop.

Ukrainian strikes on August 12th damaged port facilities in Novorossiysk as well as two Russian navy frigates that were pier side at the time of the attack: Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov - Admiral Grigorovich class frigates (409 ft, 4,000 tons, armament includes 8 x Kalibr cruse missiles (vertical launch tubes)).

Imagery analysis by the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claims the launch tubes have been damaged, as well as various ship systems.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces launched 600 drones and missiles into Russian airspace, later reports claimed total numbers exceeded 1,500 drones. Russian air defense forces at first claimed to have shot down 453 drones and missiles; how many were launched, and how many shot down is not known.

At an oil refinery in Ufa, oil tanks are said to be burning (though there is no independent confirmation of what was and what was not struck).

Local reporting noted at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded. 

In the last two days Ukrainian forces claim to have struck 5 bulk carriers in the eastern Black Sea.

Commercial imagery of the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara shows damage to the facility that was being used to modernize TU-95 bombers.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched at least several Iskander ballistic missiles as well as a number of Oniks and Zircon missiles, 36 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 2 x Banderol loitering munitions, and 168 x strike drones into into Ukrainian airspace.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. A Russian strike drone hit a border crossing on the Ukrainian - Moldovan border, about 30 miles west of Odessa.  A power outage was reported in Sumy oblast.

Civilian casualties include at least 23 killed and 45 wounded, at least of the 13 dead were in Kyiv. Mayor Klitschko said that roughly 4,000 of the 12,000 buildings in the city have now been damaged since the war began. Also of note, the basic city response to any attack costs UAH 500 million ($11 million).

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 7 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballast missiles and 65 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claims it shot down 56 strike drones and 2 Banderol loitering munitions.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 54 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast and 5 border towns in Chernihiv Oblast.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence provided a list of current Russian missile stockpile as well as estimates of actual monthly production. Listed below are the number of each type of missile followed by its monthly production numbers:

Iskander Ballistic Missile 130  / 60-65

NKOR KN-23 50 / 

Oniks 600 / 8 (earlier estimate)

S-400 400 / 50

Zircon 120 / 5 (earlier estimate)

Kh-101 101 / 87

Kalibr  450 / 29

Kinzhal 50 / 10-15 (earlier estimate)

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9         Aug7 Aug19 Aug20

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 81.59 93.72

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.80 86.66

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64 2.83 2.75

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82           6.06 6.35 6.99 7.03

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 84.56 83.38

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.70 44.65

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 85.60 88.85

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 87.52 88.89

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 87.48 86.88

Thoughts

The statements by  Koziatnskyi and Sternenko seem to be an effort to walk back the position Fedorov staked out just 48 hours ago. But there has been no retraction from Fedorov.

Despite the lack of change on the ground, the grind continues and the anecdotal reports from blogs suggests that the fight continues with unabated violence. There have been multiple reports daily for the past several weeks about Russian use of FAB 500 and FAB 1500 (1100lb and 3300lb) glide bombs, which are causing significant damage to the towns they are dropped into. Kostiantinivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are being struck daily. The “count” for most of this year has been above 200 dropped per day and continues to slowly climb; these three cities each receive a slice of that total, slowly reducing these cities to rubble.

v/r pete  

 August 19th, 2026

Politics - Khmara (DefMin) Sybiha (ForMin) approved

- Fedorov calls for elections 

- Corruption probe hits Zelenskyy Deputy COS

Combat Ops - Marginal gains, grind continues

- Ukraine large strike into Russia

Weather

Kharkiv

72 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow and then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and mostly cloudy. Clear tomorrow and through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

69 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through Friday, afternoon thunderstorms on Friday, then clearing through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

This morning the Verkhovna Rada voted to appoint Gen(Ret) Khmara  as the Minister of Defense and Andrii Sybiha as Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Former DefMin Fedorov then issued a statement calling for elections in Ukraine, stating that the war was not a viable excuse and that this “suspension” of democracy was contrary to the goal of the war: freedom.

Ukraine’s constitution specifically states that there cannot be a national election while martial law is in effect. President Zelenskyy’s nominal term ended in May 2024.

Fedorov:

"Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia. We are fighting precisely because we want to remain a free European state. Therefore, we must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to restore a full democratic process even amidst a prolonged war.”

Fedorov noted that:

"Democracy is not a peacetime luxury. Democracy is part of what we are fighting for today… People can’t endlessly live in a state where they do not understand why certain decisions are made.”

“Democracy could not simply be postponed.”

"We need to ensure the security of the electoral process, the independence of institutions, and trust in the outcome… but that complexity did not mean it could not be done. Ukraine has repeatedly done what the world considered impossible. We can find a solution here as well.”

“Elections are not just a ballot. This is the moment when the government again comes to the citizen and says: "This is what we have done. Now you decide whether to trust us further… It is this principle that distinguishes a democratic state from a system where the government itself decides when society can evaluate it. We should not allow Putin to decide when Ukrainians can choose their government. Ukrainian democracy should not depend on the goodwill of the Kremlin.”

President Zelenskyy’s Office (not Zelenskyy himself) had several comments in response:

It was "highly bizarre to plan elections amidst missiles and drones” and Fedorov’s statement "This demonstrates a complete lack of realism.”

There was a 103 POWs for 103 POWs swap completed this morning. 

President Zelenskyy has dismissed Iryna Mudra as deputy chief of staff of his office after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) reported that her offices had been searched as part of an anti-corruption investigation.

The NABU and SAPO issued a statement that said they’d  begun “a special operation to expose a criminal organization that operated under the leadership of current and former people’s deputies of Ukraine, with the participation of high-ranking officials of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other persons.”

Justice Minister Halushchenko and Energy Minister Grynchuk resigned last November, amid ongoing corruption probes.

Corruption charges are also pending against the president’s former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.

A Ukrainian has been arrested in Croatia and will be extradited to Germany as part of the ongoing investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. The man, identified as Vladimir Z, is the second Ukrainian arrested as part of this investigation.

German Minister of Justice spokesman commented:

“We’re simply glad that the federal prosecutor’s office is making progress in these investigations, because it’s important that the bombing of the pipelines be clarified as well.”

German prosecutors say that Vladimir Z is a trained scuba diver and he worked with Serhii K (the first man arrested) to plant the explosive charges on the pipeline. 

Ground Operations

Imagery shows Ukrainians gains in the fields north of Novomykhailivka (SE of Borova) - gained ground on 1 tree line.

In several towns east and north-east of Slovyansk fighting continues and both sides claim minor gains, which may in fact be correct, but are still followed by more infiltration attempts by Russian forces.

Imagery confirms Russian forces have consolidated their hold on parts of eastern and central Kostiantinivka. Russian forces now perhaps 1/3rd of Kostiantinivka and have infiltration elements spread across the rest of the city. Russian recon probes also continue to push out north and north-west of the city and there are Russian infiltration elements in the town to the immediate north and south, Russian forces control small sections of both these towns, and recon elements have probed into the south-east edge of Druzhkivka.

Further to the west Russian forces continue to push north and north-west from the general Pokrovsk area, infiltrating  Dobropillia and towns both east and south of that town. 

One blogger noted that the small town of Krasnyi Kut (before the war a small town of perhaps 30 houses along one street), had been reduced by glide bomb strikes to the point that there were no buildings remaining to use as defensive positions for Russian troops. Russian forces appear to have taken that town during the last few days of July; the town is about half way between Kostiantinivka and Dobropillia.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces launched 600 drones and missiles into Russian airspace. Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 453 drones and missile.

An oil refinery in Ufa, oil tanks are said to be burning (though there is no independent confirmation of what was and what was not struck).

Local reporting noted at least1 civilian killed and 3 wounded. 

In the last two days Ukrainian forces claim to have struck 5 bulk carriers in the eastern Black Sea.

Commercial imagery of the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara shows damage to the facility that was being used to modernize TU-95 bombers.

During the night of August 17th-August 18th Ukrainian forces launched strikes into Ufa and Nizhniy Novgorod.

Ukrainian long range drones struck Moscow as well as Crimea and the near rear, to include 5 tactical command posts. 

Ukrainian sources are reporting that the tanker Skiros (Greek flag, 900 feet, 159,000 deadweight tons, also listed as Liberian flag) was struck just off the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, Sunday after taking on a load of fuel.

The ship has secured its AIS and is un-located but in the eastern Black Sea

During the night of August 16th-August 17th Ukrainian missiles struck a logistics center in Belgorod. Russian sources reported that the strike killed 6 civilians and wounded 4 more.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballast missiles and 65 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast and 5 border towns in Chernihiv Oblast.

During the night of August 17th-August 18th Russian forces launched at least 147 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 10 civilians killed and 8 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

Ukrainian army sources note that some Russian drones are being equipped with both microphones and “magnetic detectors” - what sounds like a magnetic anomaly detector and a motion sensor so that a vehicle passing nearby will set off the warhead. The drone is then “landed” on netting over roads and sits and waits for a target to pass under it. 

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug18 Aug19

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 91.09 81.59

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.13 85.80

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64    2.72 2.83

Wheat     8.52  6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35           6.90 6.99

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 85.15 84.56

Hryvnia 28.6         43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.75 44.70

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 84.60 85.60

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 87.37 87.52

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 86.98 87.48

Thoughts

The drone and missile strikes are of note, but the call by Fedorov - who was until a month or two ago a very strong ally of President Zelenskyy could be very disruptive. Demonstrations - all peaceful - have continued in support of Fedorov in multiple cities across Ukraine; he is a very favorably regarded across Ukraine. He also, obviously knows the Ukrainian law precluding elections under martial law.

In several Ukrainian papers there were immediate editorials supporting Zelenskyy though there are editorials over the past month the clearly posture Fedorov as possibly the next president. As one oped author noted earlier in Ukraine Pravda, the firing of Fedorov, and the subsequent firing of Sysrskyi is a probable “Black Swan” for President Zelenskyy. Fedorov’s statement may be the Black Swan taking wing.

v/r pete