March 27th, 2026
Politics - Zelenskyy comments on negotiations
Combat Ops - Both sides showing small gains on the ground
- Ukrainian strikes continue on Russian oil infrastructure
- Russian strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
46 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers possible next Tuesday. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
56 and partly cloudy. Some sun on Saturday, then mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the 60. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
61 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy Saturday morning, then a week of mostly cloudy weather. Daily lows for the next week in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy commented on negotiations in an interview with Reuters:
"Ukrainians are serious about negotiations. We believe that we need to talk, preferably at the level of leaders, we are ready for this.”
Commenting on the Russian insistence on control of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Zelenskyy referred to the slow Russian progress on the ground:
"And it is not a fact that they will capture it. They can bury from 300,000 to a million of their soldiers there. They don't value human life, but they realize that it's money…That's why they are looking for such a dialog with the Americans. "Tell Ukrainians there is nothing to fight for." We are well aware of this Russian rhetoric: "There is nothing to fight for. Six thousand square kilometers.” We are explaining to our partners, and in my opinion, absolutely reasonably, why this is not the case.”
Zelenskyy has commented on the US being ready to provide security guarantees but that the US position is that Ukraine should cede the Donbas to Russia in exchange for those guarantees, as well as an $800 billion reconstruction program.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north and east of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.
Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in southern Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv city), a roughly 2 kilometer long, half kilometer wide salient north of Vilcha, pushing into southern Vovchansk.
Ukrainian forces appear to have used the rail line approaching from the south-east as the center of the salient, the rail line being well shielded by dense trees on both sides. As with other long, narrow salients, the issue now will be to push forces into the salient and expand it. The terrain outside the salient is open farmland, which will make holding this salient difficult.
Further east, Russian forces are claiming control of the town of Shevyakivka, the first town north of Chuhunkivka and the T2104 roadway and border crossing. Shevyakivka is a very small farming village, with perhaps a dozen homes, about a half mile west of the Russian border. The Russian claim has not been confirmed.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues along much of this line; imagery confirmed Russian recon elements again probing into central Kupyansk, and a Ukrainian military spokesman commented that a Russian element continues to occupy the hospital in the center of Kupyansk. Elsewhere scattered around Kupyansk, the Ukrainian General Staff estimates total Russian troop strength in Kupyansk as "platoon size [40] or smaller."
SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Fighting continues in the Slvoyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, north of Bakhmut. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have taken Kalenyky (a small village of perhaps 30 - 40 houses) just north of the Sukha River, about 8 miles west of Siversk.
Russian sources claimed that they had taken control of this town last week, as well as the terrain east of the town (between the town and Siversk); imagery now confirms that report. Imagery from yesterday shows Russian forces operating west of Kalenyky, and the logical push would be west and then south-west, following the main road and the river to the town of Rai Oleksandrivka, a town of about 3,800 before the war, about 2.5 miles further west from Kalenyky. Note too that Rai Oleksandrivka is roughly two miles north-west from Russian forces in the Nykyforivka and Lypivka area, allowing Russian forces to set up a pincer movement on the town. All this would also be consistent with the Russian efforts to close would-be salients and straighten lines, and would place Russian forces east of Slovyansk just 12 miles from the center of that city.
It is of note that Ukrainian drone operators are working to increase the number of daily strikes before spring brings leaves to the trees and makes spotting Russian soldiers on foot that much more difficult.
Fighting continues in eastern Kostiantinivka and just east of the city and multiple reports support the assessment that the area has devolved into a nasty patchwork of pockets of Russian and Ukrainian troops. By all accounts these elements are, as noted above, often only a handful of troops, and the patchwork now seems to cover all of Kostiantinivka east of the T0504 roadway, and a good deal of “east side" of the city (east of the T0515 roadway. Imagery has confirmed Russian forces occupying a building in the center of the city and fighting appears to be taking place in the railroad station in the city center.
Fighting continues further west, north of Pokrovsk, as well as just west of Pokrovsk, and Russian forces, again straightening lines, have pushed into the open terrain due west of that city. All of Hryshyne now appears to be under Russian control.
Further to the south-west there are Russian claims of gains north and north-west of Udachne, but the reporting is not clear and there is anecdotal evidence suggesting the possibility that Ukrainian forces have held ground or even retaken some of this terrain. This will require some clear imagery to sort out.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
In the area of the Ukrainian “February Counter-offensive,” south of Verbove (15 miles north of Hulyaipole), fighting continues and imagery confirms what was previously estimated, that Ukrainian forces have retaken Berezove, about 4 miles east of Verbove. Berezove is a small town (pre-war population of less than 500), located in the middle of open farmland, but with a string of small reservoirs and ponds forming an east-west line just south of the town.
Just under 2 miles east of Berezove is the small town (300 people) of Ternove, and Russian forces are now said to be attacking into that town.
Fighting continues west and south-west of Hulyaipole, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.
Further west, along the Dnipr, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces out positions along the Konka River and retaken parts of northern Prymorske. This is an important fight, as Russian forces are still on the edge of artillery range for the center of Zaporizhzhia city, a city of 700,000. Bringing the city into artillery range and forcing even a partial evacuation would be serious problem for Kyiv.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of March 26th-March 27th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (not further identified) and 103 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 93 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; the missile impacted in Kharkiv.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Civilian casualties include at least 2 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.
During the night of March 25th-March 26th Russian forces launched at least 153 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 130 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Civilian casualties include at least 15 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.
Fires continue to burn at the oil terminal in Primorsk (50 miles north-west of St Petersburg), but loading has resumed.
Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishi oil refinery on the 26th, and there are reports of damage to a processing unit and 2 storage tanks.
Ukrainian drones struck the fertilizer plant in Cherepovets, Vologda Oblast, about 200 miles north of Moscow. The plant is Europe’s largest producer of phosphate fertilizers.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Mar26 Mar27
Brent 94.71 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 106.70 110.20
WTI 92.10 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 93.87 97.18
NG 3.97 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.98 3.06
Wheat 8.52 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.95 6.04
Ruble 85 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 82.20 81.59
Hryvnia 28.6 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.86 43.76
Urals 91.66 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 96.31 105.91
ESPO 94.52 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 105.26 99.51
Sokol 99.31 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 108.47 110.30
Thoughts
Something to watch in the weeks ahead: it has been noted in the least several months, and President Zelenskyy repeated it in his daily comments last night, that the Russian strikes have begun to target the Ukrainian water infrastructure.
Ukraine is a predominantly flat country with hundreds of ponds and reservoirs created by an equal number of small dams. In the first months of the war Ukrainian forces destroyed many small dams in the area north and northeast of Kyiv, as well as in the Sumy and Kharkiv area to force Russian forces onto hard roads, complicate logistics and simplify targeting. Russian forces have since responded tactically by targeting smaller dams to eliminate some water obstacles; these strikes continue, and could cause water shortages in smaller towns in eastern Ukraine.
It was only during the past winter that Russian targeting of the centralized water systems in Kyiv area apartments became part of the general Russian target set. The Kyiv water system has for years prior to the war been noted to have problems, and much of the system is still Soviet era infrastructure and has yet to be improved to Western standards. It has been estimated that rebuilding the system - a 14 year program - would require $1 trillion in investments.
In a different direction, the tenacity of these small troop elements in various towns and cities, is remarkable. Both Ukrainian and Russian elements, often just two or three soldiers, hold positions for months after a town or city has been taken by the other side, presumably being resupplied only by small packages delivered by drones.
v/r pete
