July 27th, 2026    

Politics - Iran threatens Ukraine

- Poland “No” to Ukraine in EU

Combat Ops - Drone strikes at sea - Caspian and Black Seas

- Few Changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, then partly to mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, then clearing, mostly sunny for the rest of the week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and cloudy, gusting over 20, rain tonight. Rain tomorrow morning, then partly cloudy, sunny by the end of the week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

On Saturday a Ukrainian drone strike hit an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, killing at least one Iranian sailor. This was not Ukraine’s first strike on the Caspian, but it is the first time an Iranian asset has been hit. The head of the National Security Commission of the Majlis (the Iranian Parliament) issued a statement following the strike: 

Any attack on Iran always comes with a cost, and that remains true today; the U.S. and Israel are well aware of this. Ukraine, too, may soon come to understand that Iran does not let actions go unanswered. The list of those who have miscalculated continues to increase

Following this, President Zelenskyy commented:

We must be careful. We must do everything to never open a new front. But we must be honest: the Iranians and North Koreans have already attacked us.

Protests over the firing of Defense Minister Fedorov and most of the cabinet continue for the 11th day in a row. Peaceful protests were reported in: Cherkasy, Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lutsk, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Uzhhorod and other cities. 

Troubles continue in the wake of President Zelenskyy’s May 29th proclamation naming Ukraine’s Special Operations Command North the  “Heroes of the UPA” The UPA [ Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia - Ukrainian Insurgent Army], which was the army of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B - under Stepan Bandera). 

Yesterday Poland’s Deputy PM and Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz commented on Ukraine’s history and the obstacles to joining the EU:

“Ukraine will not join the European Union with Bandera on its banner. If the Croats glorified the Ustaše, they too would not have joined the European Union. In the Federal Republic of Germany, commanders from the Second World War are not glorified today, even those who were soldiers rather than criminals. In France, no monuments are erected to Marshal Pétain today. So it's an obvious matter: a European community is not built on a history that is hostile towards that community.”

Stepan Bandera was the leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B (the B representing the faction led by him)), which fought on the side of the Nazis between late 1939 and early 1942. Between 1942 and 1944 the OUN-B was responsible for the murder of between 60,000 and 200,000 Poles. In addition, prior to the war, Bandera had been convicted of the murder of Bronislaw Pieracki, Poland’s Mister of the Interior, and sentenced to death, later commuted to life in prison; the Germans released him after the 1939 invasion.

Kosiniak-Kamysz continued:

"Firstly: they must understand that, objectively, what happened in Volhynia, in Eastern Lesser Poland, in Eastern Galicia in 1943 and 1944 was genocide. Innocent people were killed simply because they were Polish. The second issue is honouring the memory... The third point is forgiveness."

"It certainly won't be as president Duda promised in the Supreme Council. I don't know whether the entourage of PiS [the Law and Justice party] wants to remember today that their president said he wouldn't rest until Ukraine urgently joined the Union as a full member. The question is whether Ukraine and its elite actually want to join the European Union. Isn't it more convenient for some to live in a world where the EU's rules do not apply, and where enjoying some of its benefits is controversial?"

UK PM Burnham met with President Zelenskyy today in London. During the meeting Burnham promised continued support to Ukraine and granted Ukraine rights to manufacture the UK’s “Stone Cloak” electron warfare systems, a small device (about the size of an iPad) that can be attached to drones and provide defenses against electronic attack.

Ukraine’s Davyd Allan, Deputy Secretary of the National security Council, speaking of a Ukrainian-European antiballistic missile, stated that he wants a “minimum viable product” during the first half of 2027.

Ukraine is still trying to buy as many Patriot missiles as possible, but they need more anti-ballistic missile capable systems.

Ground Operations 

Overall, fighting on the ground continues with little change - both in intensity - there are a never-ending stream of small unit probes and infiltration all along the front, concentrated in the area between roughly Lyman and Pokrovks, and the nearly frozen nature of the front lines.

While there were several confirmed changes - Ukrainian gains south pf Maliivka in the south-east, the gains are marginal. There are also many claims of gains - many by the Russians, some by the Ukrainians, most are marginal, and often are simply confirmations that the position that was claimed days or even weeks ago is still, in fact, in the hands of whoever last made the claim.

Two items stand out: Russian infiltrations continue both north-west of Pokrovsk and into Kostiantinivka. In both areas control of the terrain remains in doubt, but in both cases Russian infiltration elements continue to probe deeper into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and the number of Russian elements continues to slowly climb. In particular, in Kostiantinivka, Russian infiltration efforts now seem to have reached essentially the entire city. This doesn't mean they occupy it, only that at one time or another in the recent past that Russian elements have moved through each sections of the city and are now slowly increasing the number of troops in each section. It still looks like watching concrete set, but it appears to be something that the Ukrainian army tactically still does not know how to stop.

The second item is a Ukrainian report on a Russian assault. What is of note is that this is perhaps the largest unit anyone has reported on in weeks, perhaps in all of July: a single “reinforced company.”

The company in question is said to be equipped with 9 tanks, 2 armored fighting vehicles (AFV) and 3 Grad rocket launchers. 

An armored company in the US Army has 14 tanks, so, one might argue this is hardly reinforced. All told, there might be 80 troops in an armored company, an infantry company might have 120 - 130 troops. In this case, if the AFVs were full of troops, there might have been 75 - 80 troops, again not what one thinks of when the word “reinforced” is used. 

I only bring this up because it serves again to highlight the nature of this war, a war waged by several hundred squad level (8-10 men) actions every day, accompanied with a great deal of FPV drones and artillery fire.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continue their “deep interdiction” strikes on Russian power (particularly on Crimea), oil (across much of western Russia), and logistics facilities in Western Russia and particularly just beyond the combat zone.

As noted on the news (and noted above), Ukrainian drones hit a ship on the Caspian Sea, killing at least 1 Iranian sailor. Also struck was an oil platform on the Caspian and several other related assets. Strikes against oil and logistics facilities were also reported in Belgorod, Rostov, Sarapul, Sverdlovsk, Taganrog, Tyumen, Udmurtiya, and Yaroslavl oblasts. The oil facility in Tyumen was confirmed to be on fire.

Russian sources reported that at least 5 civilians were killed.

In the 24th, 25th and 26th Romanian AF F-16s intercepted what appears to be Shahed drones over Romania. The RAF and the Romanian government have not commented on the source of the drones.

Russian Forces

During the week of July 19 - July 26 Russian forces launched more than 1,700 strike drones, 95 missiles, and more than 1630 glide bombs. 

During the night of July 26th-July 27th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with a number of missiles (not yet clarified) and at least 147 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 123 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia  oblast.  Power, transport, logistics 

Civilian casualties include at least 2 killed and 25 injured.

Between July 24th and July 26th Russian forces launched a total of 10 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 2 x Onyx cruise missiles, and 473 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 6 ballistic missiles, 6 cruise missiles, both Onyx cruise missiles, and 391 strike drones.

MV Golden Leo (Guinea Bissau Flag, Indian owned) sank in coastal waters off Ukraine on Sunday. The ship had been hit by Russian drones on the 19th, killing 10, including 4 Indians. The Indian government has protested. Eight sailors were rescued. The ship had taken on 7,000 tons of corn in Odessa.

In an interesting note, Ukrainian reporting notes that in the past 3 weeks Russian forces have struck the town of Vasylkivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast, with more than 250 glide bombs, to include 10 in one hour over the weekend.

Vasylkivka is a town of 11,000 located about 35 miles north of Orikhiv, where the T0508 roadway, coming north from Orikhiv, intersects the T0401 roadway which runs roughly north from Hulyaiplle, through Oleksandrivka.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul24 Jul27

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 97.72 89.69

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 89.84 83.28

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.95 2.76

Wheat     8.52  5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.74 6.71

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 77.89 78.03

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.82 44.88

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 84.26 83.56

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 87.98 86.07

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 86.47 78.89

Russian’s central bank lowered its interest rates for the 5th time in 2026, dropping its prime rate to 14%.

Annual infiltration is now said to be 5.9%, up from 5.3% in May, and has lowered projected economic growth to less than 1% for 2026. The World Bank estimates that Russian GDP growth for 2026 to be 1%.

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy commented that Russia is going to bring on 30,000 new North Korean troops, and is preparing to conduct a mobilization. This, he said, is in response to Russian casualties of 131,000 KIAs and 93,000 severely wounded in 2026 alone.

These numbers are about 200% higher than the numbers produced by Mediazone - which is the only one source count that has any demonstrated methodology. The numbers are hard to accept: 224,000 troops taken out of the fight in 7 months… Russia has about 160 - 180 brigades and regiments in the fighting in Ukraine. These units are where the overwhelming majority of casualties occur - more than 90%. That would translate into 1200 casualties (personnel who will not return to active duty) per brigade, the rough equivalent of 2 full battalions from each brigade - a brigade usually has 3 battalions. 

If the Russian army had lost 360 battalions in the last 7 months - 120 brigades, they would cease to function. It is inconceivable that what was left would be able to hold off the Ukrainian army. 

It is also worth noting that pulling apart Mediazone numbers would seem to suggest the number is - at most - on the order of 6,000 KIAs and perhaps 4,500 severely wounded per month, or 42,000 KIAs and 31,500 severely wounded since the start of the year. 

This number is probably - roughly - the same number of casualties as the Ukrainians have suffered. It’s worth noting that the Ukrainian general staff says that their casualties are 1/8th of Russian casualties, which, in this case would mean 16,000 KIAs and 11,000 severely wounded. 

Meanwhile, there is a report that Putin is getting ready to conduct a large-scale mobilization. The Jamestown Foundation, reported 4 “indicators” (that read more like speculation than indicators) that Russia is preparing to escalate:

- sources close to Putin note a “resolve to escalate” rather than compromise

- claims that Putin will announce mobilization after Duma elections in September

- A proposed law requiring exit visas to travel abroad 

- ongoing expansion of the Cossack mobilization network

There is another possibility: the losses in the Ukrainian army are of the same rough order as those in the Russian army, and this is propaganda to cover up the very real worries in Kyiv as they struggle to find an answer. That might also explain the firing of Fedorov, who questioned Gen. Syrskyi’s tactics which had not reduced Ukrainian losses to a sustainable level.

v/r pete    

 

On Short Wars

July 26th, 2026

In William Shirer’s “Rise and Fall of the Third Reich” he recounts the moment on September 3rd, 1939, when the final British missive to Berlin was read to Hitler, stating that if no “satisfactory assurances” had been given to the British government [to end the fighting in Poland], that, as of 11 AM a state of war would exist between Germany and England. As there was not enough time to do anything, it amounted to a simple statement that the two nations were now at war.

Hitler had believed the Brits would waffle at the last minute. And his Foreign Minister, Ribbentrop - who had been Germany’s ambassador in London (1936-1938), had assured Hitler that the British would back down in the end, as they had done in Czechoslovakia.

Now, they had not.

As Shirer recounts, Hitler turned to Ribbentrop and asked “Was Jetzt?” - What now? World War II had begun in earnest, and it would evolve into an unlimited and very costly war.

The fact is, most wars start off as something less than unlimited war, at least to those starting it. But others get a “vote.” And so, we’re still fighting Iran. So, return to the basics: there are only two general classifications of war: limited and unlimited.

A Limited War is, obviously, a war fought for a limited goal. This can be very simple: Nation A wants that piece of land over there and tries to take it from Nation B; Nation B resists. Though the nation being attacked may perceive it in a thoroughly different light.

An Unlimited War, on the other hand, is a war fought to destroy the government of another nation. What follows can also involve taking land, wealth, and host of savage unpleasantries, but the essence is to radically change another country, throw out the old boss.

Of course, things seldom go as planned.

The Franco-Prussian is a war that began as a series of limited objectives. How exactly it began is a great story, but a bit much for this discussion. In any case, German battlefield successes led to France’s Napoleon III trying to lead his army in the field, then getting captured and what was, from the German perspective a limited war suddenly became quite unlimited as they were holding as prisoner the French head of state… and the French government was gone.

It’s worth noting that the Chancellor of Germany was Bismarck, one of the most capable heads of state anywhere on the planet for the last 200 years, and the senior German planner and commander, Field Marshall Moltke (the Elder), was equally gifted as a planner and field commander.

So, a very smart, very clever head of state and an equally gifted military commander, with a very talented planning staff and a very capable army, and they still nearly ended up with a catastrophe on their hands, the collapse of the 2nd Empire in France, followed by the founding of the provisional government and the third republic. But, Alsace-Lorraine became a part of Germany. Which was not the final answer.

After World War 1 Alsace-Lorraine was once again French.

In 1940 Germany retook Alsace-Lorraine. France got it back in 1945.

And if you care to, look up Alsace-Lorraine and see how many times it has changed hands since the 17th century…

This sort of thing happens repeatedly, at least in the last 6,000 years.

Consider the Revolution. We thought it was final in 1783 - the British came back in 1812, 29 years later.

The war in Korea? Still hasn't ended - 76 years after it started. Or longer. One could readily argue that Korea hasn't been both independent and united since at least 1882, and has been in some sort of war or civil war or occupation since. 

At least there’s Iraq, right? Well, US forces deployed for Desert Shield starting in August 1990, US aircraft were flying combat patrols over Iraq from 1991 to December 2011. Iran has been de facto at war with the US since 1979. Of course, the US Navy has been patrolling the Persian Gulf - Arabian Gulf since 1943.

And it’s not just the US. The civil war in the Congo? 1996 - 2025? Or 1963 through today in Katanga province? (And more than 6 million dead in the last 30 years).

The point here is that wars, limited or unlimited, normally don't end easily. Many wars don’t end at all. Winston Churchill famously observed of the Versailles Treat (1919) “ending” World War I, that “this isn't a peace, this is a 20 year truce.” Clausewitz observed that the results in war are never final. 

Only in rare cases, when one side engages in a great deal of killing, might a war lead to a final answer, and it almost assuredly won't be pleasant. To be sure, there is something definitive, viscerally satisfying, about the idea of a war being over, never to come up again. But that rarely happens. And when it does, it usually involves one particular thing: a great deal of destruction.

When asked how many people died in the Korea War the average American might answer “almost 37,000.” Of course, that answers the question: How many Americans died? Total dead is a bit more: perhaps 800,000 dead on the battlefields, more than 2 million civilian dead. The Chinese army lost 200,000 dead and didn’t stop until Eisenhower hinted at the use of atomic weapons.

Vietnam? Total dead on the battlefields: about 500,000 (58,000 US), total civilian dead? Estimates run above 3 million.

Iraq 2003 - 2011: almost 100,000 on the battlefield (US 4,800, coalition 22,000, 72,000 insurgents) plus 113,000 civilians.

Iraq - Desert Storm: 292 US and Coalition forces killed, estimates of 50,000 Iraqi soldiers killed, and between 140,000 and 200,000 Iraqis killed in the uprising that took place as the war ended.

Afghanistan: US - 2400 killed, Afghan forces - in excess of 66,000; Taliban - 55,000 - 80,000, civilians 46,000 killed.

In only one of these examples did we achieve an “unlimited” goal: in Iraq 2003 we toppled Saddam Hussein. And in all of these cases US forces had technological superiority as well as “sanctuary” - that is, places we could go where the enemy could not reach. In the post-Vietnam era this has allowed the US to keep US casualties low, in fact very low. But other casualties still mount.

Further, other wars, in which both sides are more or less even in combat capabilities, have been far more even in casualties.  The China-Vietnam war of 1979 (which lasted less than 4 weeks), resulted in more than 50,000 dead and perhaps as many as 100,000. In any fight with a peer the US should be prepared for very high casualties.

Wars with limited goals are politically and viscerally and often intellectually very unsatisfying. Truces, peace deals, settlements of any kind all leave room for “interpretation,” and this has always been so. Ramses II claimed he had defeated the Hittites, Hattusilish was equally clear the Hittites won. Ramses built better monuments…

What does that suggest about Iran? First, as I have said earlier, destroying Iran’s nuclear program makes all of this worthwhile. Denying the Shia government of Iran the possibility of possessing nuclear weapons makes this a price that must be paid. There are multiple answers to many other facets of this problem, but only one answer to that particular facet, and everyone needs to keep that in mind. If you think paying high gas prices is bad, imagine the Ayatollah with nuclear weapons and ask yourself how much you are willing to pay to avoid that.

But, as far as nations crying “uncle” and giving up? Germany lost 11% of its population and didn’t stop fighting until Hitler was dead. Russia lost 13.7% of its population and never stopped fighting. Japan lost 3.9% and managed to hold onto its emperor…

So far, Ukraine has lost about 1% of its population in combat, Russia about 0.25% of its population. Ukraine has also seen more than 20% of their population leave since 2022, and Denys Shmyhal (Ukraine’s Prime Minister 2020 - 2025) believes most will not return. And neither side seems ready to quit.

The main point is this: as Clausewitz noted, the results in war are rarely final. 

Something, else, too about the wars in Iran, Ukraine, and even Lebanon: bombing… To give this some relevance to size: compare Iran and Vietnam: Vietnam covers about 128,000 square miles (just a little bit bigger than New Mexico), with a population today of 102 million (just under 42 million in 1970). Iran covers 636,000 square miles and has a bit more than 92 million people, so, similar population but Iran is 5 times larger in area.

Which comes back to the question of bombing. First, to reiterate: the bombing of the facilities at Fordow et al was necessary and makes all of this “worth it.” That said, hopefully someone is working on a follow-on deep penetration weapon that can go at least twice as deep as the GBU-57, because it is a good bet that some time in the not-so-distant future a US administration will need to go back and “mow the grass.”

As for overthrowing the IRGC, that is, unlimited war… I would ask you to consider this: Iran covers some 636,000 square miles - about 5 times larger than Vietnam. 

In the 12 years of the US involvement in Vietnam (1962-1973)  the US flew more than 1 million tactical aircraft sorties, and 124,000 B-52 sorties. The Christmas bombings did bring the North Vietnamese back to the negotiations. But, how much did it change the final outcome? And yes, we have precision weapons and all that… but…

As a friend of mine (Navy F-4 guy during Vietnam), dropping bombs on people pisses them off.

“Bombs” also includes drones and missiles. Dropping bombs on Germany did not make them surrender. Dropping bombs on London didn’t make them surrender. Russia has been striking Ukraine for 4 years; they don’t seem interested in giving up. Anyone who thinks the Russians will is, I suspect, engaged in wishful thinking. You can make the argument that Japan did finally give up - after we dropped two atomic bombs on them… You probably want to think twice before going down that particular road.

Point is, unlimited wars are incredibly expensive and will require a great deal of killing. Limited wars require accepting less than perfect answers. You need to choose…