February 5th, 2026 Next Summary Monday, February 9th
Politics - Talks conclude in Dubai
- Discussed ceasefire implementation procedures
- START expires
Combat Ops - Russians take Myrnohrad
- One CHPP in Kyiv will require 2 months to repair
Weather
Kharkiv
15 and mostly cloudy, windchill 4. Cloudy through Monday, freezing rain or snow on weekend. Friday temperatures will begin to climb, low 30s Saturday and Sunday, then the cold returns. Winds easterly, 10kts.
Melitopol
20 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy through Monday morning, showers on Saturday. Friday afternoon through Sunday night temperatures will be in the 30s, may reach 40 Saturday afternoon; Monday clearing and colder. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
17 with snow showers, gusting to 30. Snow showers to continue through Sunday, then clearing. Temperatures in the teens to mid 20s through Sunday, then colder. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics
Talks concluded in the UAE.
A comment from USEUCOM is interesting:
"Following the progress towards President Trump's goal of peace in Ukraine made by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff over the past week, the U.S. and Russia agreed today in Abu Dhabi to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue."
The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented:
"The UAE affirms that it will continue its efforts to support all endeavors aimed at reaching a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine and mitigating its humanitarian consequences."
SecState Rubio noted that there would be no detailed public release until there was “a breakthrough.”
Ambassador Witkoff, commented that “…significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.”
The two sides did agree to an exchange of POWs, 157 from each side.
Ukraine’s MinDef Umierov called the talks “meaningful and productive”
Umierov then posted “results” of the talks which he said included discussions on how a ceasefire might be implemented and monitored.
The two sides agreed to continue trilateral talks.
UN Secretary-General Guterres commented on the expiration of the START treaty:
"For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States of America – the two States that possess the overwhelming majority of the global stockpile of nuclear weapons.”
He called on the US and Russia to negotiate a new treaty, to: "reset and create an arms control regime adapted to a rapidly changing context.”
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north, north-east and south-east of Sumy city but there were no changes in the lines.
Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and north-east along the border, but there were no changes to the lines.
KUPYANSK AND THE DONETS RIVER
Russian forces were active in and around Kupyansk, and conducted recon probes into the city, but there were no changes to the lines. At least one Russian unit (less than a platoon in size) remains dug in, in northern Kupyansk.
Fighting was also reported further south, and Russian forces claimed gains northeast of Borova, but this has not been confirmed.
Along the Donets River, just east of Lyman, Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting for control of the town of Zakitne, with Russian forces, who it now appears had been pushed out of the town center, pushing west through the town center and Ukrainian troops pushing north into an oxbow of the river - which is the north end of the town. Additional Russian elements have pushed south-west from Platonivka (just east of Zakitne) and appear to be attempting to circle the town to the south and cut off the Ukrainian force in the town. The town had a population of roughly 500 before the war.
Further south, Ukrainian forces have pushed eastward down Travneva street, through Riznykivka and reached the west end Sviato-Pokrovske and are holding their position. Just to the south-west of this position, Russian forces have pushed west and taken Minkivka and Orinoco Vasylivka (just south of Minkivka, and at the same time reached Nykyforivka and are pushing south on Pryvillia.
In short, the Russian forces are trying to seize the small villages in the farmland in the general area between Slovyansk and Siversk as a prelude to attacking Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces are trying to hold the small villages and thereby prevent the Russians from setting up another “siege” of a city.
Russian drone strikes continue and are reportedly increasing in number and depth, striking the ground lines of communication (GLCO) that support the Ukrainian units in these cities and towns.
BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces made gains and pushed into central Ivanopillia (about 2 miles south-east of the east edge of Kostiantinivka, about 5 miles north-west of Toretsk), pushing down Lenin street to the middle of the town. At the same time, Russian probes have again reached into central Kostianitnivka. Russian sources claim to have taken control of Stepanivka, about 5 miles south-west of Kostiantinivka.
Further west, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there were no confirmed changes.
In the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad pocket imagery appears to confirm that Russian forces now control all of Myrnohrad and Svitle, and may have for several days. Russian forces are moving into Myrnohrad and Russian forces have reportedly set up a command post inside the city, suggesting that the last Ukrainian troops have been cleared.
Fighting continues inside and just north and north-west of Pokrovsk, particularly in the east end of Hryshyne and in Rodynske.
Fighting continued to the south-west but there were no changes in the lines.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Multiple changes to the lines in the fighting around Hulyaipole. North-west of the Hukyaipole Russian forces seized several towns along the Haichur river (Zelene, Olenokostyantynivka and Pryluky) during the last few days, poor weather (both clouds and fog) obscuring the events. And Russian forces continue to probe westward from Hulyaipole and appear to have reached Staroukrainka (about 6 miles west of Hulyaipole).
At the same time, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces are holding a position about a mile south of Hulyaipole at a small bend in the road where several tree-lines and some broken terrain merge. How large a unit isn’t known.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of February 4th-February 5th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 183 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 156 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.
There are no casualty reports yet.
RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.
1,100 apartment buildings in Kyiv still have no heat.
The Darnytsia combined heat and power (CHP) plant (Kyiv), damaged into the strike on February 3rd, will take 2 months to repair. Mayor Klitschko:
“This CHP plant supplied heat to some of the apartment buildings in the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts – more than 1,100 multi-story residential buildings. The water was drained from the heating systems in these buildings on the morning of 3 February to prevent it from freezing."
During the night of February 3rd-February 4th Russian forces launched at least 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 88 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. A drone also struck a market in Druzhkivka, killing at least 7 and wounding 15.
At least 9 civilians killed and 36 civilians wounded in the attacks.
RuAF tacair struck targets in 7 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb4 Feb5
Brent 94.71 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 67.60 67.76
WTI 92.10 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 63.37 63.48
NG 3.97 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.43 3.45
Wheat 8.52 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.23 5.25
Ruble 85 84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.14 76.57
Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.11 43.14
Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 53.84 55.69
ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 58.98 61.05
Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 63.08 63.28
The US has reached an agreement with Ukraine to provide LNG to Ukraine via a pipeline that runs from Revithoussa, Greece (about 15 miles west of Athens), through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova, terminating at Ukraine’s Naftogaz system. The agreement calls for transfer of up to 100 million cubic meters of gas per month, which if, my math is correct works out to about 72,000 tons per month. An LNG tanker arrived in Poland earlier this week and has begun offloading.
Thoughts
President Zelenskyy commented yesterday: “In Ukraine, officially the number of soldiers killed on the battlefield – either professionals or those conscripted – is 55,000.”
in September 2024 the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine commented that there were 55,000 missing Ukrainians, and when pressed noted that they were really virtually all soldiers and it was probable that they were all dead. At the same time a member of the Verkhovna Rada commented that there were more than 51,000 KIAs. Both men withdrew their comments within hours and said that those weren’t the correct numbers.
The actual number of deaths remains unknown (and is considered a state secret in Ukraine), but it was presumably well more than 100,000 more than 18 months ago. But, I would suspect that this is how the numbers will be “squared” when all is said and done: there will be an official KIA number, and a larger (probably much larger) "Missing” number. Individual families will know, but the compiling of the death notifications will be obstructed by government red tape and secrecy and it will take years to work out the right casualty numbers.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) has commented on Russian formation of drone units - Unmanned Systems Forces. And while it isn’t crystal clear, it appears that the Russians currently have 1 division, 7 regiments, 25 battalions, and 3 special detachments, in addition to the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies (which operates the most advanced Russian drones).
GUR adds that they - the Russians - are in process of standing up 2 more divisions, 1 brigade, 4 regiments, 96 battalions and 82 companies.
This force currently includes 87,000 troops.
The numbers don’t seem to add up yet, there are far too many battalions (121) for 1 brigade and 11 regiments, and exactly how they integrate with the rest of the military is evolving as they learn lessons in the war; presumably many of these are set to operate independently, and to operate special capability drones.
But, it does serve to point out that the Russians have seen the role drones can play on the battlefield and are evolving their forces and force structure to, at least in part, reflect those lessons learned.
v/r pete
