October 15th, 2026      

Politics - Starshield connectivity fully restored

- Starlink ground site burns in Bulgaria

Combat Ops - Minor changes only on the ground

- Large strike on Ukrainian cities

- Ukrainian forces resume strikes on Russian energy sector

Weather

The fall rains have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

53 and rain, gusting to 20. Showers tonight, rain again Friday, Saturday just cloudy, more rain on Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Showers tonight, more rain possible through Sunday. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and mostly cloudy, showers later tonight. Cloudy for the next 5 days. Rain or rain showers possible daily through Monday night. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs near 60. Winds north or north-east, 10-15kts.

Politics

Starshield connectivity was restored as of 0400 EDT, per the Ukrainian defense Ministry. 

Wading through the plethora of stories on this loss of Starshield support for two days, and the apparent speed restriction for mobile receivers (receivers moving faster than 100kts drop connectivity), it’s still not clear what happened, with Mr. Musk insisting he made no changes to the support, that that would have had to come from the Pentagon, and ultimately President Trump. In addition, Ukraine - and Ukrainian Air Force air defense assets, did not receive launch notification of missile launches for 2 nights in a row; Trump has said there was no suspense of intelligence support; some personnel in the UAF suggest it was a technical issue that has come up before; President Zelenskyy insists there was no technical problem.

In related cyber news, a different kind of cyber attack, the Bulgarian government announced that 2 masked men set fire to 11 of 17 Starlink terminal at a facility roughly 10 miles east of Sofia, Bulgaria. No damage report yes, but images of the fire suggested there would be serious damage.

Ground Operations

The ground war continues along most of the front line, with few changes, and arguably no tactically or operationally significant changes.

Ukrainian forces made minor gains east of Sumy city, near the border, with imagery showing Ukrainian troops in a site claimed to be occupied by Russian forces. It should be noted that Russian claims are not only exaggerated, they also seem in some cases to be a means for prodding Ukrainian forces to conduct operations where otherwise they would not, seemingly an effort to simply exhaust Ukrainian elements.

In several areas the Russian areas of infiltration continue to slowly expand, to include the north-east corner (north-east of Kharkiv). This does not suggest any real Russian control of the land, but rather a slow erosion of clear Ukrainian control.

Russian forces continue to infiltrate into the north end of Kostiantinivka and to terrain to the west, towards Dobripillia, but there is no change in the actual amount of controlled terrain.

Ukrainian forces released further data on Operation Vivaldi, suggesting that the total amount of land recovered combined equals perhaps 100 square miles. What is of note is that long range drone strikes, counter-logistics drone strikes, and more rapid, more accurate command and control - all based on the use of Starlink and Starshield - have been identified as the key technologic and tactical elements of the operation.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have struck Borisoglebsk airfield (about 300 miles south-east of Moscow) and destroyed 6 x SU-34MU Fullback aircraft. THe Fullback os the 2 seat (side by side ) strike variant of the SU-27 Flanker.

Satellite imagery later confirmed that 4 aircraft had bene destroyed and 2 damaged.

Ukrainian forces struck a repair facility for Iskander launch vehicles, in Kursk oblast.

Imagery from the 12th showed that the 10 October Ukrainian strike on the oil pier in Rostov, damaged 7 of 12 storage tanks.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 x strike drones in several waves throughout the day and night. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 536 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Volyn oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 dead and 30 wounded.

Romania reports that the tanker “Wine Trader” (387 feet, 6,200 DWT, San Marino flag (possibly Panama)) was on fire 18 miles off the coast of of Sulina, Romania. Four crewmen were lifted off the ship and are ashore, a search continues for the 8 missing crew.

Earlier, Romanian authorities reported that the tanker “Yara J” (388 feet, 10,000 DWT, Comoros flag), also of the Romanian coast, had been attacked by drones, and had been struck, but there is no report on the extent pot damage.

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 39 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, and 129 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 115 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Per President Zelenskyy the Russian targeted Kyiv’s TPP-4 (thermal power plant); per the PM, all of Kyiv’s TPPs were targets, though it is not clear which ones were hit.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 dead and 62 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9          Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct14 Oct15

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 106.00 105.30

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 95.43 96.51

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95 3.16 3.22 3.22

Wheat     8.52            6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.67 6.79

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 84.06 83.75

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.99 44.91

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 118.15 114.89

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 115.69 116.06

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 113.00 111.44

Per the various business websites, the high prices for Russian oil, particularly ESPO, reflects continued purchases by China, with reports noting contracts with premiums of $7 or more per barrel, with some reports suggesting that some contracts have paid more than $20 premiums for ESPO crude.

Thoughts

Russian strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure will continue, the Ukrainian strikes on energy have resumed. 

What is of concern is that the Russians have at least several hundred ballistic missiles (perhaps as many as 600) in their magazines, and their production numbers exceed 100 per month (some estimates run as high as 130 per month of Iskanders, + Kinzhals + S-300s). At the same time, Ukraine has said it needs 300 Patriot missiles - at least, and it is suggested that there are just a handful of Patriot missiles left in Ukraine - some suggest say they are out of missiles, though they intercepted 4 Iskander missiles on Wednesday night, so there are a few remaining. 

There’s also a suggestion that in some cases (when defending high priority targets) they’re using “shoot - shoot - look - shoot” protocols for engagements so 2 - 3 missiles per engagement. Elsewhere, world-wide production of Patriot missiles is still less than 60 per month and stockpiles around the world have already been tapped.

Elsewhere, the rains have arrived; the grind on the ground will continue but it will mean greater efforts for even minimum gains, at least until the real cold sets in and the ground hardens. In as much as it still isn’t clear what sort of winter to expect with a strong El Niño, just when the ground hardens remains to be seen.

As for the success of Operation Vivaldi, the new report says that in all 4 phases combined, beginning in February and only now seeming to conclude, though ostensibly still underway, the total land regained was about 100 square miles, which left Russia with a net gain of some 50 miles for the year so far. 

Reading these reports left me with the sense that why could’ve been written by Gen. Haig’s staff in December 1916.

v/r pete

 October 14th, 2026      

Politics - US Intelligence support issue

- Zelenskyy - Klitschko bang heads

Combat Ops - Little change on ground

- Missile strikes continue

Weather

The fall rains appear to have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

57 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Showers possible tonight. Rain all day tomorrow and into Friday morning, more rain starting early Sunday and lasting into mid-day Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

6o and cloudy, gusting to 20. Showers tonight. Rain all day tomorrow and into Friday morning, then rain starting again Saturday morning and lasting through Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

55 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week. Rain starting Friday morning, rain on and off through Monday night. Lows may dip into the 30s tomorrow, then daily lows around 50 and daily highs near 60. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

On the 13th President Zelenskyy commented that the US and its European partners did not provide real-time intelligence on the Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv during the night of the 12th-13th.

On the 14th President Zelenskyy said that again there was no intelligence warning of the missile strikes during the night of the13-14th.

“Unfortunately, there was no warning from our partners regarding this strike. Intelligence data on the launch of Russian ballistic missiles helps save lives, and this is one of the most critical issues. It is precisely this that helps prevent deaths when there is a warning about ballistic missiles.”

Of note, on the 13th, ForMin Sybiha stated that the as of the 13th, there was no change in US - Ukraine intelligence cooperation.

President Trump said the same thing later in the day.

Of note, the UAF spokesman, Col. Ihnat, noted that this was not the first time, that there have been other instances where launch alerts failed to reach UAF air defenses assets in time; he suggested that these were probably technical failures [most likely communications systems failures], as they have been in the past.

It’s interesting that the communications linkage failed two nights in a row and makes me wonder if there were some sort of cyber attack taking place as the missiles launched. 

Prime Minister Koretskyi noted that the attacks last night hit all three of Kyivs operational combined heat and power plants.

As a result of the attacks last night, 600,000 residents of Kyiv were without power this morning.

In related news. President Zelenskyy announced that the government is working on changes to the nation’s “Resilience Plans,” which provide guidelines to how the country, and individual towns, should prepare for sustaining power, heat, water, transportation, etc., especially through the winter.

Zelenskyy commented that the city of Kyiv is the least prepared city in the country. 

"As of mid-October, virtually across the entire country – even in border and frontline regions – the implementation of resilience plans is further advanced than in Kyiv. And Kyiv residents certainly feel it – when even isolated hits by Shaheds cause electricity and water outages across large parts of the capital."

“Today I began consultations on urgent security and administrative measures to rectify the situation in the city, accelerate the implementation of Kyiv’s resilience plan, and ensure greater support for the people. I spoke with representatives from the security sector, the business community, and local government, including Vasyl Maliuk, Ivan Fedorov, Ihor Terekhov, Kostiantyn Yefymenko, and Maksym Yefimov. There are substantial proposals, and I am grateful for them. I will hold additional consultations, and more meetings are planned.”

“Protecting energy facilities and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, carrying out tasks in coordination with the government and the military, understanding people’s needs, and rationally adjusting the management protocols for Kyiv—we are preparing solutions.”

Kyiv’s Mayor Klitschko, who has evolved into a political rival of President Zelenskyy, rejects Zelenskyy’s accusations and suggests that it’s an effort by the Zelenskyy administration to undermine local government.

Klitschko noted that Kyiv’s two major Combined Heat and Power Plants (CHPP-5 and CHPP-6) have been repeatedly struck throughout the war: 12 missiles and drones in 2022, 7 in 2023, 0 in 2024, 19 in 2025, and almost 50 times so far this year.

"Throughout this time, experts have been working, repairing equipment and preparing the facilities for winter every year. And Kyiv has stood firm.”

Klitschko noted that the city now has almost 700 generators, 70 mobile boilers, 3 diesel power stations, a backup water intake system, and more than 6,000 pieces of equipment for supporting the management of power in the city.

In addition, the city’s water system has 103 generators and are expecting more that are now being made outside the country. 285 generators have been set up at the city’s schools, 480 at the city’s hospitals, 15 hospitals have their own wells, and 6 more are digging wells. 11 hospitals have independent heating and 10 more will by the end of the year. 

As a reminder, working on old Soviet designs, many building complexes in Ukraine have central hot water and heat systems.

Klitschko commented:

"Kyiv is working, rebuilding and repairing, and keeping the city running. This is happening amid staff shortages at municipal utilities and suspended payments, while the enemy is tearing the city apart every day and every night.”

He noted this was all going on even with  "the spiteful slaps that the central government constantly tries to deliver".

"Kyiv is functioning under difficult wartime conditions, under constant devastating attacks by the enemy. These attacks target infrastructure, the energy sector, industry, businesses and every resident of the capital.”

Ground Operations 

In the north, Ukrainian forces made small gains in the town of Yanukivka, north.

North-east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces announced that they had retaken the red towns of ZelenaDolyna, Lypove and Kolodyazi. These towns were overrun by Ukrainian forces in September, but it appears that the Ukrainian forces have just finished clearing the towns. 

Russian forces continued infiltration efforts in and around Kostiantinivka and further west towards Dobripillia, and Russian forces have taken the town of Matiasheve, between Dobripillia and Pokrovsk.

In the south-east fighting continues in the vicinity of Fedorivka,

On a curious note, Ukrainian forces are reporting that Russian forces attempted to cross the Dnepr River near the town of Prydniprovske, about 8 miles up river from the city of Kherson (on the west bank). The report suggested the Russian forces were trying to seize the position but the operation consisted of just a single rubber raiding craft, so presumably it was just another raid, but it is the first one mentioned in a while.

All that said, one of the more conservative Ukrainian online sites reported that, overall, for the month of September, Russian controlled terrain shows a net increase of 154 square kilometers - 60 sq miles.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). These attacks can involve from a handful to scores of FPV drones per day into any given village.

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces struck a repair facility for Iskander launch vehicles, in Kursk oblast.

Imagery from the 12th showed that the 10 October Ukrainian strike on the oil pier in Rostov, damaged 7 of 12 storage tanks.

Ukrainian forces are reporting that SpaceX introduced a limit on Starlink support that degrades operations above 160KPH (about 100kts), causing intermittent signal loss above that speed.

Per the Ukrainian forces spokesman:

"According to our observations, during flights, the connection could drop for 10–20 seconds at speeds of just 110–120 km/h. The drones kept moving, but these interruptions made them harder to control.”

SpaceX has not responded (at least not publicly).

Russian Forces

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 39 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, and 129 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 115 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Per President Zelenskyy the Russian targeted Kyiv’s TPP-4 (thermal power plant); per the PM, all of Kyiv’s TPPs were targets, though it is not clear which ones were hit.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 dead and 62 wounded.

During the period from October 12th-October 13th Russian forces launched at least 5 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 9 x Banderol loitering munitions, and 108 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 88 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Dnipropetrovsk was struck by several glide bombs. 

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 60 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct13 Oct14

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 104.90 106.00

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 92.55 95.43

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95  3.16 3.18 3.22

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 6.71 6.67

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 83.99 84.06

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.08 44.99

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 120.94 118.15

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 115.15 115.69

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 112.08 113.00

Thoughts

Two issues:

On the operations side, the assessment from DeepState that overall Russian forces had gained ground during September throws a little cold water on the good news assessments of Operation Vivaldi. Op Vivaldi has been hailed as a great success, and it has been suggested that it has stopped the Russian effort to envelope the Donetsk Fortress belt, it regained terrain north of Lyman, and it continues to eat away at Russian held terrain north of Hulyaipole. 

But DeepState, which is widely quoted by the Ukrainian newspapers and the Ukrainian government, suggests things aren’t quite what they seem. What the real “line of contact” looks like is, of course, another matter… 

Meanwhile, the stress inside the system continues, and the animosity between Zelenskyy and Klitschko seems to be steadily increasing. The Verkhovna Rada which is controlled by Zelenskyy’s party, has called Klitschko in front of a committee to discuss the status of Kyiv, which certainly didn’t make Klitschko happy.

Klitschko has done a good deal to get the city ready for winter, but damage to power plants and the power grid are not simply difficult and expensive to repair, many items in power grids last so long (large transformer, for example) that no one keeps spares, they are simply built anew when it comes time to replace them. 

v/r pete