March 2nd, 2026

Politics - ROK DIA: 33,000 containers from NK over last 18 months

- 1,100 houses still without heat in Kyiv

- France increasing size of nuclear force

Combat ops - Few changes, Ukrainian costumer offensive some gains

- Russian gains west of Hulyaipole

Economic - Oil prices up

- Croatia looks at Russian oil

- Ukrainian Steel - troubles

Weather

As mentioned last week, warmer weather seems to have arrived and that means thawing and muddy roads and trucks forced onto roads, making targeting easier and moving troops and logistics more difficult.

Kharkiv

43 and cloudy gusting to 20. sunny. Cloudy all week and into the weekend. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

47 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through Friday, then several days of party cloudy weather. Daily lows will be around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Wind chills will still be in the 20s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

The Republic of Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency reports that, since 2024, North Korea has shipped some 33,000 containers of ammunition to Russia (equivalent to some 15 million x 152MM howitzer rounds), and some 16,000 North Korean soldiers have served in Russia. 

5,000 - 6,000 North Korean engineers are now reported to be in Russia, in the Kursk oblast, building defensive positions near the border.

1,126 apartment buildings in Kyiv are still without heat, in large part because of frozen water in the pipes. The city engineers note that they really can defrost and clear the lines until warmer weather returns.

Estimates from early February suggested it would take 2 months to fix the system.

President Macron Announced that France will expand their nuclear forces.

Macron noted it was his responsibility to guarantee:

“…our deterrent retains, and continues to retain, its destructive power in a dangerous, changing and unstable environment. That is why I have ordered an increase in the number of nuclear warheads in our arsenal."

"To put an end to any speculation, we will no longer communicate figures regarding our nuclear arsenal, unlike what may have been the case in the past.”

"To be free, one must command respect, and to command respect, one must be strong. The increase in our arsenal is proof of that.”

As a reminder, it was DeGaulle who said: “No country can truly call itself independent that does not have atomic weapons.”

DepSecWar Colby announced that the US will continue to provide Europe with a “nuclear Umbrella.”

The French Nuclear Force consists of 4 x Triomphant SSBNs, each of which carries 16 x M51 SLBMs, each of which can carry 6 to 10 RVs.

 The French AF has 54 x ASMP-A nuclear armed missiles 

The commonly accepted number is that France has 290 actual nuclear warheads although there has been some deliberate ambiguity in their reporting.

The US is estimated (guessed/rumored) to have about 100 nuclear weapons (all B-61 bombs) in Europe, spread around several bases.

Ground Operations 

Overall, there has been a continuation of daily Russian recon probes and assaults, and Ukrainian reporting notes that Russian drones strikes are once again reaching deeper into the Ukrainian rear - which probably indicates Russian forces are finding ways to replace the capabilities lost when they were cut off from Starlink on February 1st. But overall, there was little change to the lines over the last 4 days. This may simply be part of the ebb and flow of the forces, but is probably also reflective of the slightly warmer weather which may have already resulted in some areas thawing and some personnel and logistics traffic being forced back onto roads and thus being more susceptible to drones and artillery fire.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued north and east of Sumy, and North and east of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines over the past 3-4 days.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

A good deal of fighting was reported north of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

That said, it does appear that what was suspected on Friday - the Russian forces had pushed north-west out of Nykyforivka and reached Lypivka - is correct, and they probably control the village, which will allow them to flank the Ukrainian defensive positions across the M03 roadway just west of Pryvillia.

South-west of Bakhmut, around Kostiantinivka, there was a good deal of fighting and a good deal of give and take, with Russian forces advancing over the weekend just east and north-east of the city, and Ukrainian forces regaining ground south-east of the city.

Imagery confirmed multiple Russian artillery strikes west of the T0504 roadway on the 24th and 25th, leading to the assessment that, at least as of last Wednesday, Russian forces held no ground west of that roadway. Video also showed Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian soldier at the train station, which means, of course, that Russians are probing the train station but the Ukrainians still control it.

Further west, imagery of Novyi Donbas (north of Pokrovsk), confirmed Ukrainian forces have pushed back into the center of the town.

Meanwhile, unconfirmed but credible claims suggest (but don't prove) that Russian forces have taken Hryshyne, just north-west of Pokrovsk.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues due north of Hulyaipole in the area of the Ukrainian counter-offensive of last month, and in the immediate area and just west of Hulyaipole.

In the area of the counter-offensive, Ukrainian forces continue to make small gains, and imagery confirms that, as of last Thursday, Ukrainian forces had retaken Ternove, and parts of Berezove, and Krasnohirske.

In total, Ukrainian forces appear to have retaken a block of terrain that leaves the current front line running from Verbove south-west to a spot half-way between Ribne and Zlahoda, and then westward to the Haichur River, just north of Dobrypillia. Who controls Dobrypillia is still being contested, with portions of the town controlled by each side.

Further south, imagery confirms that Russian forces have pushed into Hirke, about 7 miles west of Hulyaipole, and that Russian forces now control the five small towns east of Hirke, between that town and Hulyaipole, to include Zaliznychne, which sits astride the T0814 roadway, cutting the logistics line to the remaining Ukrainian troops that are dug in just south-west of Hulyaipole.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 1st-Mach 2nd Russian forces launched at least 94 strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 84 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Sumy oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities. 

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians were killed and 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian oil terminal at Novorosiysk (about 50 miles east of the Kerch strait).

During the night of February 28th-March 1st Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 123 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, oblasts; the ballistic missile struck in Mykolaiv.

Targets again included the power grid and natural gas facilities. 

Civilian casualties include at 2 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

During the night of February 27th-February 28th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 96 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv oblast. 

Targets again included the power grid.

There were not civilian casualties reported.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

During the night of February 26th-February 27th Russian forces launched at least 187 strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 165 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and port facilities.  

Civilian casualties include at least 2 killed and 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb27 Mar1

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 72.78 79.50

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 67.41 72.88

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.88 3.04

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.87 5.91

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.23 77.44

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.15 43.36

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 57.84 58.94

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 62.34 64.98

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 66.61 71.24

Oil and gas prices are rising after the strikes started: Iran was exporting 1.6 million barrels per day (MBPD), so that will need to be made up. About 1.3 - 1.4 MBPD were headed to China. This obviously represents an opportunity to Russia to sell more oil to China.

It remains to be seen what happens with insurance rates through the Strait of Hormuz. Just to review the numbers, global oil consumption is roughly 102 million barrels per day, of which perhaps 45 MBPD is moved my ship, and about 20 MBPD transits the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC said - before the strikes started - that they would raise production by 260,000 barrels per day, and there is additional excess capacity both in OPEC and in the US.

Per the European Commission, Croatia is discussing whether it can legally import Russian oil and ship it to Hungary and Slovakia via the Adria pipeline. The Adria pipeline runs from in Croatia, to Budapest, Hungary, where it connects to the Friendship 1 pipeline which runs through Slovakia.

Ukraine’s Arcelor Mittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine’s largest steel manufacturer, announced the closing of its Casting and Mechanical Plant, due to the power grid deficiencies and the resultant high cost of electricity.

Thoughts

Mud season seems to have set in. This will slow down the ground war for several weeks. That slowdown will give Russian forces time to figure out how to better replace the capabilities lost from being cut off from Starlink. This also provides timing to realign forces and flush out some units in preparation for renewed drives on Slovyansk and Kostiantinivka, as well as the push west from Hulyaipole. Russian forces would seem to be looking at simply moving some more troops into those front line units, and then resuming their strike drone abilities to hit a little deeper, as they were doing with the Starlink set-up. This complicates Ukrainian movement behind the lines as well as logistics support to frontline units.

Ukrainian forces in Kostiantinivka and Slovyansk already are dug in, perhaps they can make their positions harder, but the increased use by Russian forces of glide bombs to strike the very hard positions is something that the Ukrainians have not managed to counter. The obvious answer is to move Patriot batteries forward, but there aren’t enough Patriot batteries. And it is an obvious issue that the fighting in the Gulf right now will use up a good deal of Patriot missiles and create a demand for even more.

Ukrainian forces in the south are still struggling forward but have not reached, never mind breached, the Russian defensive line in that area. Nor have they stopped the Russian slow grind westward through Hulyaipole and points west. Again, the answer is simple but painful: the need to build hard defenses behind the current lines, then falling in on them (which means ceding some terrain), and the need for better air defense. 

v/r pete 

 Iran, North Korea and the Fat Lady

March 1st, 2026

In October 1971, about 25 miles or so north-east of Shiraz, a city in south-central Iran, there was a gathering of more than 60 heads of state at huge tents, set up at that spot, more than a mile above sea-level, in the Zagros mountains. The site was Persepolis, the ancient capital of Persia, and the event was the official celebration of the 2,500th anniversary of the founding of the Achaemenid dynasty by Cyrus the Great, in 550 BC. Shah Pahlavi was trying to point out to Iran and the world both the amazing history of Persia (Iran), and just how far the country had moved in modernizing during the 20th century.

And they had. There were several guys in my first tour in the Navy who had been instructors in F-14s in Iran. I recall one telling me that he was in an F-14 with an Iranian student and they passed over a small village north-west of Isfahan and the student (who was in his early 20s) pointed down and noted that he had been born there, and that when he was born, the town had no electricity. 

The student had graduated from college, had an engineering degree, and was flying an F-14; and Iran was building nuclear reactors so that they would not always be dependent on oil and natural gas. Progress.

But, seven years and 4 months later the Shah was gone. 

Now it appears that the rule of the Ayatollahs is gone.

There are 1,001 questions to ask as we all chew on these events, but one that comes to mind is: why didn’t we do this to North Korea before they finished their bomb?

Indeed, why didn’t we?

As it turns out, it was contemplated. In fact, per a story I heard from a dear and very smart friend, in early 1996 General Gary Luck, the commander of Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea, was faced with this exact prospect and he told President Clinton that the war could be fought, “For a million, a hundred billion, a trillion.”

He then went on to explain that North Korea was an armed camp and if strikes were conducted, it would reignite the Korea war, and it would cost the US 1 million casualties, and $100 billion and would cause at least $1 trillion in damage to the Republic of Korea.

The other part of that equation that Gen. Luck also understood in detail, was that, despite all the rhetoric in the news, the leadership in North Korea had and has one overriding strategic aim that eclipses any and all other issues: survival of the Kim family. Unlike some members of the leadership in the Islamic Republic of Iran, there was and is no fondness for martyrdom. The result is that North Korea is stable. They may be a complete mess, but they are stable. And they view their nuclear arsenal as an insurance policy to prevent just this sort of thing. 

As for Iran, assuming that the regime is forced out, and also assuming that there is some sort of popular uprising and a new government, what might happen?

Not to belabor the point, but we need to remember Iran has been around a while.

And their history has been turbulent for much of that 2,500 years, and there were peoples living in what is now Iran for at least 3500 year before Cyrus. After the Achaemenids came Alexander the Great and then the Seleucids, the Parthians (whose empire lasted for nearly 500 years), the Sassanids, the Umayyad Caliphate, the Abbasids, a fracturing and several smaller dynasties that each ruled part of Iran, the Mongol conquest, the rule of Timurlane and the Timurids, the Safavids, Nader Shah and the Afsharids, and the Qahar dynasty (which ruled from 1789 to 1925) and was pushed out in a coup in 1925 and replaced with the Pahlavi dynasty. Reza Shah Pahlavi ruled until 1941; one of the many pieces to WWII, because of the need to both assure access to oil and to open a logistics line from the sea across Iran into the Soviet Union, he was deposed (by the British and Soviets) and replaced with his son, Reza Pahlavi..

In 1951 Iranian’s Prime Minister Mossadegh and  the Iranian Parliament moved to nationalize the “Anglo-Persian Oil Company,” (which later became British Petroleum). The British responded by forcing Mossadegh out and giving the Shah more power. The Shah sat on the Peacock Throne from 1941 to 1979 until he was pushed out by the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Ayatollah Khomeini.

Now it appears that the rule of the Ayatollahs is gone.

There are a great many folks who served in uniform, or in the intelligence community, or the state department over the last 5 decades who, with the US and Israel striking targets in Iran, are finally satisfied in some sense that a door is finally closing on the horror that was the Islamic Republic of Iran. And we all tip our hats to the Soldiers, Sailors, Airman, Marines and Guardians who are executing this operation.

But, as the long and at times torturous history of this country shows, there is no reason to believe somehow this is all at an end. It isn’t over yet. Not only has the fat lady not sung, even when we think she has, it’s not really over.

The President has rid us of a major problem, and that is wonderful news. But, more will follow. Even assuming a new government, with a population of 93 million, Iran will be unsettled for quite some time, they have tremendous resources but tremendous problems: among them a worthless currency, a nationwide drought caused by bad policies, and an oil infrastructure that needs investments and modernization.

And there will be unintended consequences: With the flow of crude oil from Iran to China now cut, and with oil prices rising, China will presumably buy more Russian oil. This would not only help Russia’s economy and stiffen their war-time economy, it  would also presumably push these two countries closer together. And these strikes will further tighten the supply of smart weapons that might be used in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Of course, it may also occur to China, in light of our excellent execution of this operation, that they probably don’t want to go a few rounds with the US right now, and that would be a good thing.

But, as Clausewitz pointed out, we need to remember that the results in war are never final. 

And the unintended consequences are going to take years to reveal themselves.