February 20th, 2026

Politics - President Trump extends Russia sanctions another year

- Ukraine’s Power Grid problems continue

- Gear and Assistance promised to repair Grid

Combat ops - No significant changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

27 and light snow, windchill 20. Some sun on Saturday and Sunday, then cloudy all next week, snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily lows in the teens, daily highs in the 20s through Monday, then several days hovering at freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 31. Cloudy through the next week except Monday morning, which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 20s, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

23 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25; windchill 10. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then solid cloud cover for the next week, snow showers Monday and Tuesday, may turn into rain. Through the weekend daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs in the 20s, wind chills as low as zero. Then warmer, temperatures right at freezing from Sunday evening through Wednesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump extended sanctions against Russia yesterday’ The sanctions would have expired on March 6th; they have now been extended through March 6th, 2027.

Prime Minister Meloni of Italy commented on the status of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia; she noted that “important steps forward” have been made, but sees it as a starting point, "not so much a turning point as a contact on the ceasefire, which is still very far away in Ukraine." 

"The issue of the territories that Russia continues to claim, in my opinion, is completely unfounded.”

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid.

This morning in Zaporizhzhia, 41,000 homes were without power. By early afternoon, about 8,000 still had no power. Areas of Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy also were without power.

Last night Russian strike drones damaged the Naftogaz facility in Myrhograd, Poltava and caused a large fire. This is the 20th attack on the fact this year.

Ukraine, the EU and the US have finalized a 600 million Euro ($708 million) plan to purchase energy and 6 decommissioned CHPPs (Combined Heat and Power Plants). 

Minister of Energy Shmyal posted: “Contributions to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine in the amount of more than EUR 250 million; agreements with the US on a separate assistance program through the SPARK project worth USD 276 million; agreement with France on EUR 71 million of humanitarian support to be provided in 2026.

"The equipment [from Austria, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany and Latvia], will be moved and quickly assembled. We are talking about at least 6 decommissioned CHPPs and TPPs that will be transferred to Ukraine. This way we will be able to quickly restore the operation of key stations destroyed by the enemy.”

"We are creating a new architecture for coordinating aid - a single energy pipeline - so that aid comes faster, the nomenclature meets our needs and the efficiency of its use increases. Together with the Baltic States, Poland, Finland, Denmark and Norway, we have launched the Regional Coordination Platform for Energy Sustainability for the countries of the EU's north-eastern flank. We will have a common framework for understanding risks and jointly respond to numerous challenges.”

Poland’s President Nawrocki yesterday signed into law the elimination of a "special assistance" for Ukrainians. Ukrainian refugees will now be covered by the  general law protecting all foreigners. This act also extends the period of legal stay of Ukrainian citizens in the country until March 4, 2027. 

Ground Operations

Overall, poor weather across most of Ukraine reduced somewhat the amount of activity on the ground. Note that the cloud cover also degraded overall imagery coverage of the front lines, so the situation at various points along the front may have changed but has not been detected.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Fighting continues both north of Kharkiv city and east of the city, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed marginal Ukrainian gains in central Kupyansk, though reporting also continues to suggest that the Russian force left in Kupyansk is less than a platoon (less than 40 troops) in size. Russian forces do continue to make small recon probes into Kupyansk as well,

Further south, there was fighting reported in the general area east of Borova and north of Lyman, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, particularly in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed north-westward from terrain just west of Bondarne and have reached central Nykyforivka. This gives the Russians two “alients pushing north-west, on that has reached Pryvillia and the forces in Nykyforivka, though still about 15 miles form Slovyansk.

Fighting continues in eastern Kostiantinivka and points to the east and south-east of the city, but there were no changes in the line.

Further west, north of Pokrovsk (where there was no significant reporting), and in the Pokrovsk area, and to the west and south-west of Pokrovsk, there were no confirmed changes in the lines, though some Ukrainian reporting suggests Russian gains in Hryshyne, presumably in the eastern end of the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Haichur River north-west of Hulyaipole, and in the area of the small salients further to the north-west from the Haichur, but there are no reported changes to any of the lines in this ares, though there is an unconfirmed report that Russian forces have pushed back into Ternuvate, along the Haichur ( about 8 miles northwest of Hulyaipole) 

There were no confirmed changes to the line further west, to the Dnepr River.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of February 19th-February 20th Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 128 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid and 

Civilian casualties reported include at leas 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 301 Ukrainian drones, 10 missiles and two guided bombs.

During the night of February 18th-February 19th Russian forces launched just 37 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 29 drones. This is one of the smaller strikes in the past year.

Damage was reported in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

There were no civilian casualties reported.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

Russia has begun using Geran-2 drones as “mother-ships” to carry FPV drones deeper into Ukrainian airspace. The Geran 2 is one of the larger variants of the Shahed drone: about 11 feet long, 8 foot wingspan, weighs 440 lbs, with a 1,600nm range and a top speed of 100kts, with a 110lb warhead. FPV (First Person Video) drones appear to be attached on top of the drone, and once separated from he Geran, the Geran acts as a communications and video relay for the FPV “pilot.”

During the night of February 18th-February 19th Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Velikolukskaya oil depot in Pskov (about 150 miles south-west of St. Petersburg, 20 miles east of the Estonian border). Imagery confirmed a fire but the extent of the damage is unknown. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb19 Feb20

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 71.02 71.21

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 65.81 65.97

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.93 2.98

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.58 5.72

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.75 76.84

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.28 43.25

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 57.42 58.58

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 N/A since 17th

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 65.46 67.21

Thoughts

The relatively low level of activity is of note. Despite the fact that the actual number of reports of troops in contact was in a normal range (between 400 and 500 per day), the Russians continue to set the tempo, engaging and withdrawing. Said differently, the Russians retain the initiative on the ground. Ukrainian forces have had some successes - pushing the Russians out of Kupyansk, the two small salients north of Hulyaipole, but they are small. Further, as has been the case with both sides, when there is a success, it is slow and painful. 

The Russian troops in Kupyansk (one estimate several days ago said 22, another “30 to 40”) are all reportedly in the same apartment building. And they are holding on and the Ukrainians can’t dig them out. 

As for the two small salients, which the Ukrainians are quick to label as “not a counter-offensive,” seemed to proceed as have a number of similar events in the last 2 years (since fall of 2023): Ukrainian elements find a seam between two Russian units, they shift forces and attack, more nimble than the Russian forces, they penetrate perhaps as far as 10 miles in a narrow thrust, and then they are stopped and the Russians move additional forces into the area and slowly squeeze the salient shut.

Pervasive ISR makes very difficult any sort of massing of forces for a large-scale attack. But Russian forces have managed, through hundreds of very slow, small probes, and an extensive drone-centric interdiction of Ukrainian logistics, managed to crawl forward. Ukraine has yet to develop a counter to these tactics. Both sides continue to take casualties. But Russia is very slowly taking ground with its tactics. Ukraine seems to be just taking casualties.

v/r pete 

 February 19th, 2026

Politics - Talks end, little progress, but they will continue 

- UK, Germany Chiefs of Staff call for more defense spending

- Power outages continue

Combat Ops - Myrnohrad: no fighting 

- Southern Ukraine - salients stopped

Weather

Kharkiv

21 and cloudy, gusting over 20, windchill 9. Snow tomorrow, sun on Friday, then cloudy again. Daily lows in the teens, daily highs in the 20s.  Windchills could dip below zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

27 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20, windchill 15. Cloudy through the weekend, daily lows in the 20s, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

21 and cloudy, gusting to 25; windchill 7. Mostly cloudy for the next week, snow showers Monday. Through the weekend daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs in the 20s, wind chills as low as zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

One reporter from Al Jazeera summed up the talks with what seems a fairly accurate description:

“The talks have not broken down, nor have they yielded anything.”

In a statement yesterday President Zelenskyy commented that the talks discussed security guarantees, the process for implementing a ceasefire, humanitarian issues and the release of prisoners. The US called on Russia to end drone and missile strikes on the power grid.

The two senior uniformed officers from Germany and the UK, Gen. Carsten Breuer, and Air Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, respectively, wrote of the need for more spending, saying the the nations of Europe “must now confront uncomfortable truths” and make “hard choices” about spending.

From an article published jointly by The Guardian in the UK and Die Welt in Germany:

“Moscow’s military buildup, combined with its willingness to wage war on our continent, as painfully evidenced in Ukraine, represents an increased risk that demands our collective attention. Moscow’s intentions range wider than the current conflict.”

They called for the public to back increases in defense spending even if it effect various public service programs.

“It’s clear that the threats we face demand a step change in our defence and security. Rearmament is not warmongering; it is the responsible action of nations determined to protect their people and preserve peace.”

“People must understand the difficult choices governments have to take in order to strengthen deterrence. Defence cannot be the preserve of uniformed personnel alone. It is a task for each and every one of us.” 

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves, Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer ruled out any increase in defense spending this year, saying that the Ministry of Defense will have to wait for “future spending reviews.” 

This means that Britain will not meet a 3% of GDP target, which has already been superseded by Trump’s call for 5% of GDP committed to national security.

Of note, as Reuters reported before Christmas, Germany has a target of 3.5% of GDP by 2030… But, MinDef Pistorius admitted just a few months ago that they will only reach 3.05% of GDP by 2030.

The cities of Chernihiv and Slavutych are without power after technical problems at a power plant. There is no expected repair time.

Large areas of Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Regions were also without electricity supply since this morning.

Severe weather (ice, sleet and gusting wind), on top of an already fragile power grid due to the continued strikes, caused the problems. 

The result was that 458 towns were without power Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Poltava and Kharkiv.

Sweden announced it will provide a 12.9 billion Krona ($1.42 billion) military aid package, focused in air defense and long range strike.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and Russian forces continue to report small incursions at various spots along the Russia - Ukraine border. Russian forces are claiming they pushed across the border about 60 miles north-north-west of Sumy City and taken the small village of Kharkivka (perhaps 10 houses on a bend in a road). There is no confirmation of this event.

Due north of Sumy City imagery confirmed Russian forces have pushed back into Kindrativka and control the east side of the town (pre-war population of 852)

There were no confirmed changes to the front lines north of Kharkiv.

East of Kharkiv, north of the Oskil River about 16 miles, Russian force have pushed back into Chuhunkivka; Russian forces entered the town on the 7th or 8th, and were then pushed out by Ukrainian forces by the 10th, and have now pushed back into it.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued in the Kupyansk area, east of Borova, and north of Lyman, but there were no changes to the front lines.

Fighting was reported across most the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines. Ukrainian sources note that Russian drone and glide bomb attacks continue, and that Russian forces are already adapting to operations without Starlink.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

South-east of Kostiantinivka imagery confirmed Russian gains in Ivanopillya and Pleshchiivka, as “see-saw” fighting continues for portions of those towns, but there were no changes inside Kostiantinivka itself.

In the Pokrovsk area fighting continues in the northern corner of the city still held by Ukraine, as well as to the west, along the north edge of Hryshyne, but there were no changes in the lines, with Ukrainian forces still holding most of the east end of Hryshyne.  East of Pokrovsk there were no reports of fighting in Myrnohrad, or Rivne or Svitle, suggesting Russian forces have rolled over the last Ukrainian elements in these cities.

Fighting continues roughly along the line of the Solona River west and south-west of Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian forces making confirmed gains pushing back into the town of Udachne (population 1600 before the war), west of Pokrovsk, but there were no other confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha River and Ukrainian forces continue to hold the two salients (south of Sosnivka, and south-east of Vidradne) but they have not advanced. Reporting is mixed however, and there is some reporting - Ukrainian reporting - that suggests that the salient south-east from Vidradne has collapsed back to the Vyshneve area, that the thrust along the line of the Hanchur River - from just south of Vyshneve to Ryne - has collapsed. At the same time, the same reporting suggests that the two salients joined along a line from Verbove west to Vishyneve.

If this is correct, this is a more easily held gain by Ukrainian forces.

The third salient, east of Dobropillia, has collapsed, but Ukrainian forces do hold Dobropillia itself. 

Further south, in the area west of Hulyaipole, Russian sources claim that Russian forces have pushed back into Krynychne, but that is more difficult to sort out.

Further west, fighting was reported at multiple sites in the Orikhov area, and west Orikhiv, from Stepove to Kqamyanske, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

It is worth noting that, while strike drone numbers night rise and fall, Russian AF use of glide bombs has risen in the last two months and seems to be staying at heightened levels. And, as previously noted, the bombs are considerably larger and more destructive than drones, artillery and most rockets and cruise missiles.

During the night of February 18th-February 19th Russian forces launched just 37 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 29 drones. This is one of the smaller strikes in the past year.

Damage was reported in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

There were no civilian casualties reported.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 155 drones and 11 missiles in the last 24 hours.

Ukrainian forces struck the Michurinskaya CHPP (Combined Heating and Power Plant) in Belgorod during the night of February 17th-February 18th; imagery confirmed damage to the plant.

During the night of February 17th-February 18th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 126 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 100 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts; at least 1 ballistic missile struck in Chernihiv. Targets struck included the power grid.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 killed and 4 injured.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb18 Feb19

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 67.71 71.02

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 62.61 65.81

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.01 2.93

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.48 5.58

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.23 76.75

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.30 43.28

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 55.25 57.42

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 N/A since 17th

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 62.64 65.46

Thoughts

The lack of any activity in Myrnohrad is solid evidence that the city has fallen to the Russian army. There may still be small elements of Ukrainian troops inside the city, but they will be dug out in due course.

Pokrovsk is a bit more difficult but Russian forces appear to be grinding forward slowly.

To the south, the two small salients were exposed seams in the Russian line, but the Russians have closed them up. The Ukrainian army did not have the wherewithal - as they DID in 2022 - to exploit a seam. What is of interest now is to see how long it takes the Russians to regain that lost ground.

At the same time, the statements - pleas - by the General and the Air Marshall for more defense spending, and the inability of either the UK or Germany to change the overall nature of their governments’ spending, once again leaves me scratching my head. As a reminder, just the other day Germany noted that they had “emptied their magazine” and had no more surface-to-air missiles.  

This all seems like a pale echo of the 1930s… Given how long it will take to rebuild their ammo stockpiles, Germany appears to have left itself defenseless, and the UK seems headed in that direction. Given 4 years of war to their east, has the readiness of the various forces (army, navy, air force) improved? Is training more aggressive and complex and reflective of the lessons learned out of Ukraine?  

And what would Air Chief Marshal Dowding have said, would he been able to keep his 25 squadrons? Would there have been a Battle of Britain?

And yet, they have nuclear weapons… 

v/r pete