April 22nd, 2026
Politics - 90 billion euro financing approved by EU
Combat Ops - Attack totals up, but no significant changes in the lines
Weather
Kharkiv
45 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy all week, rain Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, may switch to snow on Friday, rain again on Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Melitopol
50 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the week, rain showers Thursday and again on Sunday, and both days could see winds over 20kts. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 15-20kts, occasionally higher.
Kyiv
37 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Mostly cloudy this week, light rain tomorrow and again on Sunday. Daily lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds westerly, 15-20kts.
Politics
This morning (roughly 0700 EDT) the EU approved the 90 billion euro ($105 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine. The money will consist of 45 billion euros per year, 28 billion for military expenditures, and 17 billion for the rest of the government. Ukraine will not pay interest on the loans, and no money is due until the war is over and Russia pays reparations.
There will be a formal, written approval (probably tomorrow) but that is pro forma, the package has passed. The first distribution of money will probably take place near the end of May.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues but there were no significant changes to the front line.
Of note, to give some sense of these daily probes, Ukrainian forces reported repelling a mechanized assault - which consisted of 3 armored vehicles and 3 motorcycles; one vehicle was a self-propelled howitzer. Again, this was likely 2 IFVs moving perhaps 10-15 troops forward, with the howitzer to provide cover fire. Ukrainian forces reported that they destroyed the 3 vehicles.
There are multiple reports of Russian gains across the front but they appear to be mainly Russian recon units probing into Ukrainian territory and then having their pictures taken by Russian drones, placing a flag on a building… propaganda value, with a 3 - 5 man infiltration team being presented as “we seized the town.”
EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER
Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in the small town of Podoly (about 2 miles south-east of Kupyansk, pre-war population of about 2,400), and at the same time Russian forces continue to maintain a small lodgment inside Kupyansk. Ukrainian sources note that the coming of spring - and leaves on trees - has facilitated infiltration into the city (the ruins of the city) and is enabling Russian resupply and rotation of troops in these positions. The Ukrainian General Staff notes that they are tracking 10 Russian call signs inside the city.
Still, it is interesting that both sides have found it very difficult to completely clear some of these cities.
Further south, General Gerasimov once again commented that Russian forces now occupy all of Luhansk oblast.
Several weeks ago it did, in fact look like they had done so, but imagery supports the assessment that Russian forces have not controlled a small slice of Luhansk due east of Borova, and have not controlled it since 2022. The total area that Russia has not taken is very small, less than 1% of Luhansk (Luhansk covers some 10,300 square miles), and probably less than 20 square miles of open farmland.
SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Russian recon and infiltration elements continue to probe into Ukrainian terrain and Ukrainian forces are reporting that the number of probes is increasing with the warmer weather and the increased amount of foliage. But there were no changes in the front lines in the Slovyansk area. Fighting continues east and south of Rai Oleksandrivka and a Ukrainian element continues to hold ground inside Nykyfoorivka (both south-east of Slovyansk about 12 - 15 miles).
In and east of Kostiantinivka both sides continue to infiltrate the other side’s positions and both sides continue to trade small pieces of terrain, but there were no changes in the lines around that city.
Further west, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are pushing north out of the Pokrovsk - Hryshne area and fighting is taking place just south of the small town of Vodyanske (a town of about 1,300 before the war, about 7 miles north-north-east of Pokrovsk). Fighting has not reached Vodyansske, but there are several small, densely packed towns, and several apartment complexes, the clusters of small, hard apartments that are found in many Ukrainian towns and which have been turned into very hard fighting positions.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
There are multiple claims of seized towns but in every case they appear to be simply recon probes and infiltration efforts and there were no changes in the front lines. However, there does appear to be an increase in the number of probes along much of the front lines across southern Ukraine.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of April 21st-April 22nd Russian forces launched at least 215 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 189 drones.
Adding some confusion to reporting, Prosecutor General Kravchenko stated that 35 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles were launched and overflew Chernobyl, but his comments later referenced missile overflights over the course of the entire war.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and civilian infrastructure, with 54,000 houses in Chernihiv oblast temporarily losing power.
Civilian casualties include at least 9 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 19 towns.
During the night of April 20th-April 21st Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 143 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 116 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and civilian infrastructure, with 54,000 houses in Chernihiv oblast temporarily losing power.
Civilian casualties included at least 2 killed and 30 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.
Ukrainian drone strikes on the Tuapse Refinery (located on the Black Sea about 175 miles south-east of the Kerch Strait) and the Novokuibyshev Refinery (located about 500 miles south-east of Moscow) have - per Reuters - resulted in an overall drop in Russian oil production of 300,000 - 400,000 barrels of oil per day. It is estimated that repairs will take a month.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr21 Apr22
Brent 94.71 61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 95.00 100.50
WTI 92.10 57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 87.22 91.73
NG 3.97 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.67 2.74
Wheat 8.52 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.05 6.10
Ruble 85 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.88 74.75
Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 44.03 43.93
Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 98.05 98.84
ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 100.43 103.24
Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 99.12 101.00
Thoughts
Russian Chief of the General Staff Gen. Gerasimov has recently been making various claims about Russian gains, but, despite these claims there was very little change to the line of contact over the last 24 hours or, really, for more than a month. What has been happening is continual drone and artillery strikes by both sides and both sides continue to take casualties.
At the same time, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Syrskyi reports an increase in the number of Russian assaults along the entire front line, but the evidence of a “Spring Offensive” isn’t conclusive.
What is of note is that there is an increase in Ukrainian reporting that Russian drone strikes are increasing, and Russian infiltration has improved with the arrival of spring and the increased foliage that can be used for concealment.
Again, there is no reason to believe the Russians will change their tactics; the war remains one of attrition and very gradual movement, not what anyone would want to call an “offensive.” But there remains a real concern that the Ukrainian manpower problem continues to grow, and although the growth is slow, the associated risk is also growing.
Since the beginning of February Ukrainian forces have held off, and in some cases rolled back, Russian forces with the use of drones - many drones (11,000 FPV drones per day), benefitting from the command and control (C2) advantage they have with Starlink. But Russians are adapting and it has been noted that the Ukrainian logistics problems have increased in the past week due to increased Russian drone strikes; the Russians appear to have solved, or nearly so, the C2 problem caused by the denial of Starlink. If they can apply that solution and sustain it, and Ukraine does not solve the manpower problem, once again this could be a long summer for Ukraine.
v/r pete
