October 16th, 2026      

Politics - Starshield resumes ops

- Gerasimov announces more strike on energy

- Zelenskyy asks for more money

Combat Ops - Ground war few changes

- Air strikes continue

Weather

The fall rains have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

57 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next 5days, showers on Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

56 and cloudy. Showers probable through Monday. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next 5 days. Rain or rain showers possible daily through Monday night. Daily in the 40s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds north or north-east, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that Ukrainian forces have regained unrestricted access to Starshield.

Meanwhile, TASS reports that Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Gen. Gerasimov has said that Russian forces have "begun massive strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities.”

As to the cause of the loss of access, an anonymous source has reported that the order to reduce Starshield support to Ukraine came from the White House, but British Defense Secretary Streeting met with SecWar Hegseth yesterday and then was interviewed on BBC; Streeting said that Hegseth had assured him that the service had been fully restored. When asked later whether the Pentagon, presumably to include the White House, had ordered the restrictions, Streeting responded “That’s not my understanding.”

Concerning the dustup between President’s Trump and Zelenskyy, Streeting commented:

“We need President Trump engaged on Ukraine. He has been, and the diplomatic track is as important in ending ‌the war as making sure Ukraine has the weapons it needs to see off Russian aggression.”

President Zelenskyy has asked the EU for an addition 70 billion euros ($79 billion) in aid for 2027.

“The war will cost 155 billion euros [$174 billion] next year. And we need at least 70 billion euros more from you – for defence, for weapons and for our resilience. This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support. It will help us hold Russia back.”

The EU has already approved 90 billion euros in aid for 2026-2027, split roughly in half each year, with 60 billion for defense and 30 billion for operating the rest of government. 

Ground Operations

Overall, very little change in ground activity, Russian infiltration efforts continue, but are slow and all movements by either side are hampered by pervasive drone coverage and reduced foliage coverage. Nevertheless, fighting is reported along most of the front lines.

In the north imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in the small wooded area just west of Holubivka, just to the north-east of Kupyansk.

Of note, again pointing to how much this is a war of small elements, moving mostly on foot, Ukrainian forces reported a motorized assault yesterday, one of only a handful reported in the past week or so. The Russian forces conducted an attack near Dobripillia (12 miles north of Pokrovsk), with 9 vehicles and the Ukrainian forces reported that they destroyed 2 platoons and 9 vehicles.

As they did not claim to have destroyed any tanks or IFVs, it is likely these were small vehicles, to include ATVs. As none of the platoons on either side are at full strength, it isn’t clear how many troops were involved, but certainly less than the 80 of two full platoons, but that was an assault of note - 9 vehicles.

Air and Maritime Operations

Several news organizations have reported that, as of the 15th, the UAF was out of Patriot missiles, and one noted that they had fewer than 10 remaining as of Wednesday night. (Please see my thoughts).

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 14th-October 15th Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan oil refinery (125 miles south-east of Moscow), and the Gazprom processing facility in Surgut (1,200 miles east-north-east of Moscow).

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 15th-October 16th Russian forces launched at least 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 24 wounded.

Two more tankers were struck by drones while in Romanian waters:

MV Sea Destiny (Marshall Islands Flag, 623 feet, 55,000 DWT) was struck by a drone inside Romanian territorial waters.

MV Dania J (Tanzania Flag, 279 feet, 3,500DWT) was struck import Izmail, Ukraine. In both cases the types of drones were not specified.

Seven sailors are still missing of the tanker Wine Trader.

During the day on the 15th Russian forces launched an additional 138 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 125 of these drones.

Of note, the UAF reported that 360 drones targeted Kirovohrad during this 24 hour period.

During the period from October 14th-October 15th Russian forces launched an undeclared number of ballistic missiles, at least 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 x strike drones in several waves throughout the day and night. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 536 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Rivne, Vinnytsia, Volyn and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. Kyiv and Volyn oblast experienced power outages after the strikes.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 dead and 30 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct15 Oct16

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 105.30 106.00

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 96.51 97.98

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95  3.16  3.22 3.11

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86  6.79 6.57

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 83.75 85.55

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.91 44.90

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 114.89 114.30

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 116.06 131.92

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 111.44 112.20

ESPO forward - deliveries in January - traded at 127.60 yesterday, suggesting Chinese buyers believe the prices will remain high and Iranian oil will remain unavailable for the next 3 or 4 months.

Thoughts

The air defense - missile defense situation is grave.

While it was said there were 10 or fewer Patriot missiles in the Ukrainian inventory as of Wednesday, one report says that number is now “2” and another that it is “0.” Four ballistic missiles were shot down on Wednesday night, then the rest got through, suggesting that, in fact, they are out of missiles.

The US stockpile is already critically low, as are most other NATO members. Spain promised 5 missiles in September but insists no more than that. Greece has 200 PAC 2 Patriots, which has an anti-missile capability but is not as capable as the PAC 3. But despite a good deal of pressure from the rest of Europe, Greece has refused to give up its missiles.

France has promised 2 x SAMP/T systems and both France and Italy have promised missiles from their stockpiles. These systems were supposed to arrive “in October.” Current status has not been released to the public.

SAMP/T (Sol-Air Moyenne-Portée/Terrestre,  "Surface-to-Air Medium-Range/Land-based”) uses the Aster 30 missile and is effective against shorter range ballistic missiles, but is less affective against hypersonic targets. The Aster 30 NG (next generation) which was first delivered to France and Italy just a few months ago, can address some hypersonic missiles.

The Aster 30 missiles are in short supply, the Aster 30 NG has just entered production, so numbers are very low. 

v/r pete

 October 15th, 2026      

Politics - Starshield connectivity fully restored

- Starlink ground site burns in Bulgaria

Combat Ops - Minor changes only on the ground

- Large strike on Ukrainian cities

- Ukrainian forces resume strikes on Russian energy sector

Weather

The fall rains have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

53 and rain, gusting to 20. Showers tonight, rain again Friday, Saturday just cloudy, more rain on Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Showers tonight, more rain possible through Sunday. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

51 and mostly cloudy, showers later tonight. Cloudy for the next 5 days. Rain or rain showers possible daily through Monday night. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs near 60. Winds north or north-east, 10-15kts.

Politics

Starshield connectivity was restored as of 0400 EDT, per the Ukrainian defense Ministry. 

Wading through the plethora of stories on this loss of Starshield support for two days, and the apparent speed restriction for mobile receivers (receivers moving faster than 100kts drop connectivity), it’s still not clear what happened, with Mr. Musk insisting he made no changes to the support, that that would have had to come from the Pentagon, and ultimately President Trump. In addition, Ukraine - and Ukrainian Air Force air defense assets, did not receive launch notification of missile launches for 2 nights in a row; Trump has said there was no suspense of intelligence support; some personnel in the UAF suggest it was a technical issue that has come up before; President Zelenskyy insists there was no technical problem.

In related cyber news, a different kind of cyber attack, the Bulgarian government announced that 2 masked men set fire to 11 of 17 Starlink terminal at a facility roughly 10 miles east of Sofia, Bulgaria. No damage report yes, but images of the fire suggested there would be serious damage.

Ground Operations

The ground war continues along most of the front line, with few changes, and arguably no tactically or operationally significant changes.

Ukrainian forces made minor gains east of Sumy city, near the border, with imagery showing Ukrainian troops in a site claimed to be occupied by Russian forces. It should be noted that Russian claims are not only exaggerated, they also seem in some cases to be a means for prodding Ukrainian forces to conduct operations where otherwise they would not, seemingly an effort to simply exhaust Ukrainian elements.

In several areas the Russian areas of infiltration continue to slowly expand, to include the north-east corner (north-east of Kharkiv). This does not suggest any real Russian control of the land, but rather a slow erosion of clear Ukrainian control.

Russian forces continue to infiltrate into the north end of Kostiantinivka and to terrain to the west, towards Dobripillia, but there is no change in the actual amount of controlled terrain.

Ukrainian forces released further data on Operation Vivaldi, suggesting that the total amount of land recovered combined equals perhaps 100 square miles. What is of note is that long range drone strikes, counter-logistics drone strikes, and more rapid, more accurate command and control - all based on the use of Starlink and Starshield - have been identified as the key technologic and tactical elements of the operation.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have struck Borisoglebsk airfield (about 300 miles south-east of Moscow) and destroyed 6 x SU-34MU Fullback aircraft. THe Fullback os the 2 seat (side by side ) strike variant of the SU-27 Flanker.

Satellite imagery later confirmed that 4 aircraft had bene destroyed and 2 damaged.

Ukrainian forces struck a repair facility for Iskander launch vehicles, in Kursk oblast.

Imagery from the 12th showed that the 10 October Ukrainian strike on the oil pier in Rostov, damaged 7 of 12 storage tanks.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 x strike drones in several waves throughout the day and night. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 536 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Volyn oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 6 dead and 30 wounded.

Romania reports that the tanker “Wine Trader” (387 feet, 6,200 DWT, San Marino flag (possibly Panama)) was on fire 18 miles off the coast of of Sulina, Romania. Four crewmen were lifted off the ship and are ashore, a search continues for the 8 missing crew.

Earlier, Romanian authorities reported that the tanker “Yara J” (388 feet, 10,000 DWT, Comoros flag), also of the Romanian coast, had been attacked by drones, and had been struck, but there is no report on the extent pot damage.

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 39 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, and 129 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 115 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Per President Zelenskyy the Russian targeted Kyiv’s TPP-4 (thermal power plant); per the PM, all of Kyiv’s TPPs were targets, though it is not clear which ones were hit.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 dead and 62 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9          Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct14 Oct15

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 106.00 105.30

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 95.43 96.51

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95 3.16 3.22 3.22

Wheat     8.52            6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.67 6.79

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 84.06 83.75

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.99 44.91

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 118.15 114.89

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 115.69 116.06

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 113.00 111.44

Per the various business websites, the high prices for Russian oil, particularly ESPO, reflects continued purchases by China, with reports noting contracts with premiums of $7 or more per barrel, with some reports suggesting that some contracts have paid more than $20 premiums for ESPO crude.

Thoughts

Russian strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure will continue, the Ukrainian strikes on energy have resumed. 

What is of concern is that the Russians have at least several hundred ballistic missiles (perhaps as many as 600) in their magazines, and their production numbers exceed 100 per month (some estimates run as high as 130 per month of Iskanders, + Kinzhals + S-300s). At the same time, Ukraine has said it needs 300 Patriot missiles - at least, and it is suggested that there are just a handful of Patriot missiles left in Ukraine - some suggest say they are out of missiles, though they intercepted 4 Iskander missiles on Wednesday night, so there are a few remaining. 

There’s also a suggestion that in some cases (when defending high priority targets) they’re using “shoot - shoot - look - shoot” protocols for engagements so 2 - 3 missiles per engagement. Elsewhere, world-wide production of Patriot missiles is still less than 60 per month and stockpiles around the world have already been tapped.

Elsewhere, the rains have arrived; the grind on the ground will continue but it will mean greater efforts for even minimum gains, at least until the real cold sets in and the ground hardens. In as much as it still isn’t clear what sort of winter to expect with a strong El Niño, just when the ground hardens remains to be seen.

As for the success of Operation Vivaldi, the new report says that in all 4 phases combined, beginning in February and only now seeming to conclude, though ostensibly still underway, the total land regained was about 100 square miles, which left Russia with a net gain of some 50 miles for the year so far. 

Reading these reports left me with the sense that why could’ve been written by Gen. Haig’s staff in December 1916.

v/r pete