June 18th, 2026

Politics - G7 meeting - leaders comment

- Bodies Exchanged 

Combat Ops - No significant changes on the ground

- Drone wars continue - Moscow Refinery

Weather

Kharkiv

73 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and light rain. Partly to mostly sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and cloudy, gusting to 30. Rain showers tonight, Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Overall, the G7 restated support for Ukraine as well as a desire to restart peace talks, while also promising to continue to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

Some statements from G7 leadership:

Macron: 

The balance of power in Ukraine has changed; Ukrainian forces are advancing while Russia is retreating. We want to support Ukrainian air defenses. The G7 summit was held under complex circumstances and allowed for coordination to address current crises and challenges.

Trump on Russia-Ukraine: 

Both are losing a lot of soldiers, Russia's losing more, because they're the offensive ones, and when you're offensive in war, you lose more, pretty simple. I think they both want to do something, they just don't know how to do it.

He added:

“We had a very good conversation with President Putin and a very, very good conversation with President Zelenskyy. I think they both want to do something. They just don't know how to do it. They want to do it. They just don't know how.”

Zelensky: 

Just spoke with US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. An important coordination conversation that can change a lot. We summed up our negotiations at the G7 summit. I am grateful to President Trump for his attention to Ukraine and his willingness to help bring peace closer. I am grateful to Emmanuel for the excellent organization of the summit and the consistently strong joint work. We are working to strengthen Ukraine, our cooperation and diplomatic prospects. We need peace. And we are doing everything to bring peace closer

Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of dead yesterday, with Russia turning over 522 fallen Ukrainians and Ukraine turning over 30 fallen Russians. This brings the total bodies exchanged since the beginning of 2025 (when they agreed to the exchange) to 20,321 Ukrainian fallen returned by Russia, and 376 Russian fallen returned by Ukraine. There is still no explanation as to the glaring discrepancy between numbers of Russian bodies and number of Ukrainian bodies.

In a letter to EU members, EC President von der Leyen called on EU governments to add restrictions on accepting Ukrainian refugees. While her letter does not state it directly, it is believed that the EC is discussing barring Ukrainian men of conscription age from the “expanded temporary protection” status has been in place since March 2022.

Ground Operations

Russian recon probes and infiltrations continue north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv city, and also in several more spots on the border east of Sumy city. Fighting continues along much of the front line east of the Oskil River, but there were no changes in the line.

Further south, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position inside the city of Lyman, so, Russian forces have penetrated into the city. As with most other situations, there appears to be a developing patchwork on the north-east quarter of the city. There are Russian claims of probes into other parts of the city but those have not been confirmed.

Multiple infiltrations were reported in Kostiantinivka and the surrounding area but there is no confirmed change in the line and Russian reporting of control of most of that city is mainly propaganda. There were also Russian claims of taking the town of Stepy, (about 12 miles north of Pokrovsk), but there is no confirmation of that event.

Further to the west, south-west of Pokrovsk, and all across southern Ukraine, there are reports of Russian probes and Russian infiltrations, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces hit oil facilities in the Rostov area, outside of Belgorod, and, most spectacularly, in Moscow, the Kapotnya refinery, destroying at least two large storage tanks and generating a very, and very large and very “photogenic” fire.

The Russian MinDef claimed that 555 drones were shot down over Russia last night, 180 over Moscow; they did not comment on how many drones were detected.

Overall estimates of Russian oil production suggest that there has been a 5% drop in production year on year for the month of May, and that some form of gasoline rationing for civilians is now in place across most of Russia. It’s probable that Russian excess capacity is large enough to take up that slack but there will be both brief periods of drops in production and, perhaps more significantly regional shortfalls due to inability to store as a result of the destruction of storage tanks. 

The psychological impact may well outweigh the actual damage to Russia’w oil production capacity.

Both sides continue to strike at ground lines of communication (GLOC) in the rear areas, with the Ukrainians appearing to be a bit more successful, though this may well be a function of reporting. 

The Ukrainian General Staff noted strikes on two bridges in Crimea, and Crimean resupply appears to be stressed.

Both sides continue to strike at ground lines of communication (GLOC) in the rear areas, with the Ukrainians appearing to be a bit more successful, though this may well be a function of reporting. 

The Ukrainian General Staff noted strikes on two bridges in Crimea, and Crimean resupply appears to be stressed.

Russian forces also continue to conduct Ukrainian GLOC interdiction strikes behind the lines. Some analysts suggest that these strikes are purposefully targeting civilians but the numbers don’t seem to support that assessment with single digit or low double digit civilian wounded on any given day, while the average day sees Russian forces flying more than 10,000 FPV drones per day.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 7 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 239 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 212 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least  1 civilians killed and 10 wounded.

During the night of June 16th-June 17th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 119 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 97 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least 2 civilians killed and 2 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun17 Jun18

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 80.05 78.50

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 77.22 75.33

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.14 3.17

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.14 6.20

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 72.80 73.28

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.83 44.93

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 64.16 64.54

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 79.13 77.55

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 74.67 74.55

Thoughts

The Propaganda War continues at full throttle. In the latest round, one well known analyst and retired army officer reported (yesterday) that in the previous 96 hours Russia’s entire northern front had collapsed, calling it a “tactical and operational collapse,” and that Russia had no hope to recover the front.

I have searched for any sign that this is so and again, as with his analysis 2 weeks ago that the southern front had similarly "collapsed along a 140 km front," could not find evidence of that collapse. I am a slave to the various web sites that I search through, but it would seem to me that if such a collapse had, in fact, taken place, major newspapers would be covering it. However it goes, one of us is very wrong.

As part of the propaganda war, the images of burning oil tanks around Moscow might be seen as a real “victory” by Ukraine and many will interpret it as sign that “Ukraine is winning.” (Note Macron’s comment).

I’ll leave that debate to others. 

Certainly, there is the possibility it will prod Putin to act to reach some sort of ceasefire. Conversely, it may well be interpreted as approaching an existential threat to Russia, and perhaps cross Putin’s red line - whatever that might be. Putin would then have several options, two of them are: first, he could declare a general mobilization and throw the entire army into the fight, doubling the number of forces inside Ukraine. Or, he could actually use tactical - battlefield - nuclear weapons. Much has been made of the idea that the Ukrainian strikes are cutting bridges into Crimea from the north. The use of low yield nuclear weapons on the bridges across the the Dnepr would cut the country in two. 

An interesting addendum - President Trump noted that overall KIAs - combined Russian and Ukrainian killed - are running “about 25,000 people every month.”

That number is, if not exactly what I have come up with, is at least of the same magnitude; my estimate is that total KIAs is on the order of 15 - 20,000 per month, split almost evenly between the two sides.

v/r pete       

 June 17th, 2026

Politics -  G7 meeting 

- Belarus bus hit by drone

- EU: China aiding Russian forces

Combat Ops - No changes on the ground

- Air and Maritime ops continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and sunny, gusting over 20. Rain showers Thursday, then partly to mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

61 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain showers tonight, Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend. Daily lows for the week in the 50s, daily highs around 70. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy posted from the G7:

The G7 summit in France brought important results for Ukraine. Most importantly, we agreed on additional strengthening of Ukrainian air defense. There will be new steps to pressure Russia for war, pressure for peace. Partners will provide support for our defense and energy sustainability. It is important that we have a common understanding of the main challenges and specific steps to respond to them. Our global unity really reduces Russia's ability to continue this insane and criminal aggression against Ukraine.

A bus carrying 44 Belarusians, to include 28 students from the “Children and Youth Sports School No. 2”  in the city of Rechytsa (a city just west of Homiel, about 50 miles inside Belarus) was hit by a drone in Bryansk oblast this morning. One person, a woman accompanying the team, was killed and 7 passengers were wounded, to include 4 students. 

The Ukrainian General Staff denied any Ukrainian involvement.

"Statements by representatives of the Russian Federation regarding the alleged strike by a Ukrainian Armed Forces drone on a bus carrying a youth soccer team in the Bryansk Oblast are untrue. We emphasize that during the specified period, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not use unmanned aerial vehicles to strike targets in the Bryansk Oblast.”

“Unable to achieve its stated objectives on the battlefield and suffering significant losses, the Russian Federation is increasingly resorting to information manipulation and fabricating accusations against Ukraine.”

Andrii Kovalenko, the director of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation commented:

“The Russians saw that Belarusians do not want to support Russia’s aggressive rhetoric regarding Ukraine, so they fabricated a ‘terrorist attack on a bus carrying Belarusian children in the Bryansk Oblast,’ hoping that this information provocation would incite the Belarusian population to support aggressive actions against Ukraine. The provocation itself is pathetic and bears all the hallmarks of a coordinated operation without any factual evidence. Typical of Russian propagandists.”

Kaja Kallas, head of EU foreign policy, officially stated that the EU has verified that the Chinese PLA is training Russian forces, and called China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“We have also now verified reports that the Chinese military has been training Russian military personnel to fight in Ukraine. We are carefully assessing the implications.”

China’s support of Russia from early on has been well documented and several EU member intelligence agencies have reported (as reported in Reuters) that China provided training to Russian forces in 2025.

The Council of the EU also named two Chinese firms in association with Russian sanctions, but these were not linked to the training.

China’s support of Russia from early on has been well documented. Die Welt has reported on China - Russia training, combat lessons learned and weapons and parts deliveries.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian denied Kalas’s comments, said there was “no factual basis” it was “nothing but smears.”

Russian artist Robert Kuzakov, AKA Semyon Skrepetsky, was shot and killed Monday morning in Biala Podlask, eastern Poland. Kuzakov was shot 5 times in the chest and head at close range; the gunman has not been captured.

Kuzakov / Skrepetsky was a critic of the Putin regime and his art and performances stressed anti Putin themes. He carried out a 3 day protest last week in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin.

Ground Operations

Overall, there were few confirmed changes in the line and none in the last 24-48 hours that were of operational significance.

In the Sumy and Kharkiv areas and the area east of the Oskil river, Russian infiltrations were noted on border towns north of Kharkiv along the Lopan River, as well as in Podoly, south-east of Kupyansk.

Fighting was also reported north-east of Borova.

There are clusters of increases in reports of Russian assaults - but there is no detailed breakdown of the number of assaults or the number of troops involved. The clusters:

East and north-east of Slvoyansk

East, south-east, south and south-west of Kostiantinivka.

In the general area of Pokrovsk - from north-west of Shakhove westward as far as Udachne there appears to be an increase in the number of Russian assaults.

There were no confirmed changes to the front lines in the south either, but there appears to be several areas where there is an increase in activity: 

The west end of the line (west of Orikhiv, between Shcherbaky and Stepnohirst.

West of Hulyaipole - in the general area of Charivne and north along the line as far as Vozdvyzhivka.

 From Dobropillia along the line eastward and north-east to Oleksandrohrad. Of note, mandatory evacuations of families with children was ordered for 5 small villages in the area just north-west of Vodyane, about 20 miles north of Hulyaipole, which supports the reporting that fighting is increasing in this area, and also supports reporting that Russian elements have been infiltrating into this general area.

Of note, the largest force movement in all this increased reporting was a Russian company (minus), yesterday that consisted of 1 tank, 3 x IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles) 5 commandeered civilian cars and 28 motorcycles and an estimated 100 soldiers. 

Two points are of note: as there is no specific report that the tank or IFVs were destroyed, it's a reasonable bet that they broke off and headed to the rear as soon as the engagement began and the assault was pressed on foot. In most cases the motorcycles and cars are simply abandoned once the force nears the front lines. Also note that this is the first company sized (barely) movement for at least a week. Between the Russians (about 150 - 170 brigades and regiments) and Ukrainians (120 - 130 brigades and regiments) there would be a total of 2,500 - 3,000 companies on the front lines, and a single company moving as one unit stands out, pointing out how much this a small unit war.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of June 15th-June 16th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 119 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 97 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 2 civilians killed and 2 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long range strikes on Russian oil facilities as well as medium range strikes on bridges, picking at Russian GLOCs, with a particular focus on hitting at the roads and bridges running into Crimea from the mainland, and the M-14 roadway that runs east - west across southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces struck the sanctioned tanker FINA A (Equatorial Guinea flag, 62,000 tons) in the north-east Black Sea; the ship was inbound to Novorossiysk.

Yesterday a UAF SU-24 Fencer crashed at Khmelnitsky, both aircrew were killed. All UAF SU-24s are based out of Starokostiantyniv Air Base in Khmelnitsky oblast. This is at least the 14th lost since the start of the war and leaves the UAF with 14 aircraft.

During the night of June 15th-June 16th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 132 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

There were at least 3 civilians killed and 9 civilians injured.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun16 Jun17

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 81.04 80.05

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 78.44 77.22

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.16 3.14

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.03 6.14

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 72.29 72.80

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.83 44.83

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 67.80 64.16

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 82.24 79.13

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 78.65 74.67

Thoughts

Just a few more numbers on drones and artillery: 

Current Ukrainian production and use is running a bit more than 11,000 FPV drones per day - and headed to 19,000 (will be there by the end of the year and probably before that), and total artillery and rocket usage is between 3,000 and 4,000 rounds per day.

Current Russian FPV drone production is 15,000 per day produced, usage in the 10,000 - 11,000 per day range. Russian artillery production is 12,000 per day, split evenly: 4,000 per day each of 152MM, 122MM rockets, and 120MM mortar rounds.

Note that the per day production and usage is literally 365 days per year.

Ukrainian intentions are to increase drone production to 30,000 per day. I would guess Russian aims are similar.

Point is, both sides are using roughly the same number of drones daily, Russia has a decided advantage in artillery, and a decided advantage in aircraft delivered bombs. It is difficult to conceive how there could be a large disparity in casualties given similar ordnance use and mainly static positions.

Also of note is that the Russian DIB is now producing between 2,500 and 3,500 FAB kits per month (JDAM kit equivalents) and continue to try to increase that production. These are of note as they are so much more destructive than any other weapons used by either side, except for the Russian ballistic missiles.

v/r pete