July 23rd, 2026
Politics - Rubio, Lavrov meet
- Protests continue over Cabinet Firings
- Zelenskyy offers Fedorov new job, turned down
Combat Ops - Some Russian ground gains
- Missile and drone strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
74 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
78 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
68 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
SecSstate Rubio met with Russian ForMin Lavrov in Manila earlier today.
Rubio posted:
“Met today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the ASEAN Ministerial,We discussed the U.S.–Russia relationship and the need to end the Russia–Ukraine war.”
“We had a good conversation, a frank conversation,
“The United States, the president’s been clear that ... we are prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war, and we’re ready to do that.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry stated:
“…during the discussion of the Ukrainian issue, Sergey Lavrov briefed his American counterpart on the real state of affairs along the line of contact and emphasized the unacceptability of further armament of the Kyiv regime and the generally destabilizing policies of European countries, which continue to seek a ‘strategic defeat’ for Russia.”… the ForMin "reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic resolution of the conflict,” … Moscow remained committed to the “proposals put forward by the American side at the meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, to which the Russian leader agreed.”
Also in attendance were:
Russian Deputy ForMin Rudenko;
Dir. Foreign Policy Planning Department Drobinin
President’s Permanent Rep to ASEAN Zagaynov,
For the US UnderSecState Political Affairs Hooker
Special Presidential Envoy Gore
Protests of the dismissal of the cabinet, and in particular of MinDef Fedorov continued for the 7th day, with protests reported in Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kremenchug, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava, Ternopil, and Vinnytsia.
While the protests continued, videos show ordered, peaceful protests.
President Zelenskyy appointed Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) Deputy, MGEN Ihor Skybyuk as the new Chief of the UGS, replacing MG Hnatov. Skybyuk was the commander of Airborne Forces prior to being named the Deputy UGS. No follow-on assignment has yet been mentioned for Hnatov.
Former MinDef Fedorov thanked Gen Syrskyi for his defense of the nation. At the same time, he noted that the country needed to move faster:
"We need to move even faster and write new chapters, correcting all previous mistakes.”
Fedorov also identified what he considered to be the main tasks facing the new leadership:
- Preserving the lives of Ukrainian military personnel
- Robotization of the front
- Carrying out asymmetric strikes on Russia
- Exhausting the Russian economy
President Zelenskyy commented on the tasks facing Gen Drapatyi (New Armed Forces CINC) and acting MinDef Khmara:
"Undoubtedly, both Drapatyi and Khmara will have to fulfill the main task facing us today after a long and exhausting war for everyone. The tasks that I set for both [Mykhailo] Fedorov and [Oleksandr] Syrskyi (because you can't separate them, nor can we say that one is to blame and the other is not) were the issue of 'closing the skies', the issue of how military enlistment offices are run and the issue of giving mobilization a more human face, if I can put it that way. Until the war ends, all of this will have to be done together, in unity. Unfortunately, that unity did not exist before."
President Zelenskyy yesterday offered former MinDef Fedorov the post of Deputy PM for Military Innovation.
"Mykhailo is on the team. I has offered him several positions, without going into the details of all our meetings: the latest position was deputy prime minister for military innovation, and this is very important, because any innovations must be coordinated with the leadership of the Ministry of Defence, with military command, with the commander-in-chief of our army and with the president. All of this can be done, and must be done every day.”
Fedorov already turned down the offer. Fedorov was Deputy PM for Digital Transformation (2019 - 2025) and Innovation (2023-2025) prior to being named MinDef.
Fedorov noted that it would be impossible to implement his strategy to stop Russia without the real powers held only by the Ministry of Defence.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) transferred $690 million to Ukraine, the 2nd tranche of a 4 year, $2.2 billion loan.
President Zelenskyy commented on the next six months:
"We have two paths ahead of us this winter. The first path is that we find a way to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia and end this war. This is the priority. That's what I'm focused on. We understand who we're dealing with. Which means that the alternative, which is always sought not by Ukraine but by Russia, is an escalation of the war and an increase in mobilization.
I have received a broad intelligence briefing, and we can see that there are people around Putin who want to end the war, who can see the economic collapse and the logistical collapse. But there are military figures who want to see the war escalate and mobilization be stepped up. That's what they want, they want to kill us. So we need to prepare a plan for getting through the winter."
Ground Operations
There are again, some marginal changes, mainly Russian gains, along the lines from the Lyman area (just north-east of Slovyansk) to the area west of Hulyaipole.
There are several exceptions of note: Russian forces have clearly made gains (confirmed by Ukrainian military) at several points in a line about 12 miles long, roughly north of Pokrovsk, beginning just north of Hryshyne (which is west of Pokrovsk) and including 7 villages and 4 salients, to the area of Kucheriv Yar, about 11-12 miles north-east of Pokrovsk. It isn’t clear how many additional forces the Russians are pushing into these gains, that should become clear in the next week or two, but obviously, Ukrainian forces need to stop these gains. That said, the Russians have routinely made these sort of gains and then been slow to reinforce and the gains are often marginalized; I’ll keep my eye on these areas.
In, and in the area immediately around ,Kostiantinivka Russian forces continue to infiltrate to the north-west into the northern end of the city, even as Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in the city center, further expanding the “checkerboard” disposition of forces in the city. There are a good many differences in the various reports on the actual front line but all show a creeping expansion of the Russian infiltration areas, though there remains no way to define a “front line” in this area.
Elsewhere, in some of the areas where there is less activity - north of Sumy City, east of Sumy City along the border, and along the border north of the Oskil River, it appears that Russian forces continue to slowly harden their hold on these areas. If - IF - the Russians stick with SOP, there would be engineering units moving in and improving defensive positions. But reporting on these engineering units is lacking. It should also be noted that the prepared Russian defensive lines have, to date, proven very difficult to breach.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out), of which there is very little reporting.
Ukrainian Forces
The Ukrainian counter logistics effort in Crimea continues, with power outages again noted yesterday across Crimea.
Ukraine is getting excellent press coverage of the strikes on the Wildberries warehouses, though there is reasoned commentary that sees it as a diversion, and that they would be better served continuing to attack oil industry targets.
An oil pumping station in Bashkiria (about 550 miles east-south-east of Moscow) was hit yesterday and photographs showed a fire at the facility but there is no independent assessment of damage.
Russian Forces
During the night of July 22nd-July 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 5 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 168 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 2 cruise missiles and 154 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Odessa.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 19 injured.
During the night of July 21st-July 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 3 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 216 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 cruise missiles and 204 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Sumy oblasts
Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 19 injured.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul22 Jul23
Brent 94.71 91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 93.96 98.77
WTI 92.10 93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 86.76 90.76
NG 3.97 2.73 2.79 3.14 m 3.12 2.92 2.95
Wheat 8.52 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 7.02 7.07
Ruble 85 78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 78.52 78.45
Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.81 44.81
Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 73.12 80.73
ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 92.01 93.07
Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 85.02 85.95
Thoughts
It is worth noting that, while the protests are peaceful, there are protests. Put in the context of nearly any other country on earth, the idea of protests because of the firing of the Minister of Defense seems ludicrous.
But Fedorov was very popular before the war even started, is widely credited with modernizing the army, and his dismissal is viewed by many as something much darker.
Fedorov was responsible - before he was MinDef - of modernizing paperwork across much of the Ukrainian government, famously allowing you to file for standard things like drivers license renewals, and file taxes, on your cell phone (among a long list of achievements).
When he arrived in the Defense Ministry he began an earnest, aggressive effort to modernize and make transparent all contracting in the Ministry. Now consider that in 2021 Ukraine’s defense budget was just short of $7 billion, in a country with a GDP of $160 billion. In 2026, with a population reduced by 25%, and a GDP that exists almost completely of EU grants, the defense budget will be $100 billion.
And Fedorov was trying to make all that spending transparent to the average Ukrainian citizen, readily available on a laptop or cell phone, while making the “Main Directorate for State Quality Assurance” - 1,000 people, most of whom are Army LtCols and Cols, into a civilian agency. The Army was not pleased.
There are, it seems, a great many Ukrainians who believe that there are too many people in the bureaucracy in Kyiv who could not risk the aggressive reform of procurement and defense spending that Fedorov was trying to usher in.
It is worth noting that during the summer of 2025 an effort was made to bring the anti-corruption offices in the government more closely under Presidential control, and this too resulted in protests that resulted in overturning the proposed changes. It remains to be seen if there will be any reversal of course, but the dismissal of nearly every minister will make a reversal that much more difficult than last year’s course correction.
v/r pete
