August 4th, 2026 Next Summary August 6th
Politics - Zaluzhnyi - NATO not up to Ukrainian standards
Combat Ops - No real changes on the ground
- Strikes continue
- “War at sea” is an issue
Weather
Kharkiv
89 and partly cloudy. Sunny through Friday, thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 70, daily highs in the mid 90s. Winds northerly, 5kts.
Melitopol
92 and sunny, scattered showers. Mostly sunny through Saturday, thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows in the low 70s, daily highs in the upper 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
88 and sunny. Mostly sunny through Friday morning, Friday afternoon and Saturday will see showers and thunderstorms. Daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
Ukraine’s Ambassador Zaluzhnyi (UK), former CINC of the Ukrainian armed forces, poked hard at NATO, at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors in Kyiv.
"I know NATO very well. For 12 years, I must have personally been working to ensure that we mastered NATO standards, and every year I listened to tales that we were about to join NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join it!”
"Most likely, NATO will remain in the same form as it is, and will be for 12 years, like Ukraine, moving to the standards that need to be achieved in order to be at least half the level of the Russian federation.”
"Ukraine needs technologies that are still available in NATO countries today [PATRIOT], it is impossible to join an organization that possesses the doctrines of World War II with the level of development that exists in the armed forces of Ukraine."
Ground operations
Overall, the situation on the ground is little changed. Infiltrations continue, primarily by Russian forces but also in counter-attack by Ukrainian forces in certain areas. But there are no significant changes in the lines and only a few small, marginal gains. Nevertheless, the fighting continues with the same intensity with an average of more than 200 Russian assaults per day (virtually all less than a platoon in size) across the length of the line.
In the south-east, Ukrainian military reports that Ukrainian forces have gained some ground in the terrain just south-west of Fillia, across the Vovcha river (about a mile south-west of Fillia), pushing about a mile along the west bank of the Mokri Yaly river. Several smaller Ukrainian gains have also been reported along the lines further to the south-west, but have not been confirmed.
Ukrainian sources also report that in the "fortress cities” - Kostiantinivka, Druzhivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk - Russian glide bombs are now seemingly a daily event, each city being struck several times per day by glide bombs. These strikes continue to break Ukrainian hard points and support further Russian infiltration efforts.
There have also been several more glide bombs strikes on Pavlohrad city (about 50 miles north-west of Pokrovsk). Russian forces are not infiltrating Pavlohrad, but this city is now acting as a logistics and personnel hub to support the center of the line. Glide bomb strikes will obviously degrade logistics support to the front.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
Ukrainian strikes again hit Wildberries warehouses as well as two oil facilities. Oil facilities struck were:
The oil refinery in Syzran - 450 miles south-east of Moscow
The oil facility in Kstovo - 275 miles east-north-east of Moscow
Warehouses were hit in the Moscow and St Petersburg areas.
Casualty reports included 15 civilians killed and 56 wounded.
The Cameroon flagged RO/RO Nadezhda (Turkish crew, Turkish owner, 390 feet, 4,400 dead weight tons) was struck by a drone 30 miles outside Novorossiysk. 4 members of the crew were injured. The ship was carrying a load of fresh fruit and vegetables from Samsun, Turkey to Novorossiysk.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian shipping continue; since the start on July 6th, Operation Molochkha (Молочка = milk, and is also a colloquial for milk products) has struck 129 ships in the Sea of Azov and 72 in the Black Sea. Per the Ukrainian unit commander, the intention is to damage but not sink the ships.
Russian Forces
During the night of August 3rd-August 4th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 136 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 117 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.
Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. The port facility in Mykolaiv was again struck, damaging 3 ships.
Civilian casualties include at least 4 killed and 34 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian strikes into Odessa and other Ukrainian ports had, as reported several weeks ago, reduced total loading capacity from 6 million tons per month to 4 million. Amid the continuing strikes, there is no timeline as to when repairs will be affected, and there has been some additional damage in the last 3 weeks; the greater Odessa area ports account for 90% of Ukraine’s grain and oils export.
Russia has also begun regular strikes on ships entering and leaving Odessa ports, with at least 28 ships damaged, 10 sailors killed another 34 wounded. And, strikes on both off-loading facilities and on trains themselves has caused the Ukraine state railroad to limit certain train travel into Odessa.
During the night of August 2nd-August 3rd Russian forces launched at least 181 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 163 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts.
Russina droens also struck a a civilan tugboat in Odessa.
Civilian casualties include at least 4 killed and 33 wounded.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug3 Aug4
Brent 94.71 91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 83.45 83.54
WTI 92.10 93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 79.51 79.61
NG 3.97 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.76 2.71
Wheat 8.52 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.39 6.47
Ruble 85 78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 80.15 80.60
Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.89 44.64
Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 87.50 85.21
ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 87.62 80.77
Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 78.30 79.91
Thoughts
File this under speculation, but I have a sense that the last 4 - 6 weeks have marked another shift in the war. As noted on July 24th, the Russian Rassvet satellite constellation is now in an initial operations phase and Russian forces are using it to support longer range strikes into Ukraine and presumably to provide better command and control for strikes on “near rear” Ukrainian GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication). These were the strikes - the logistics interdiction effort - that Russian forces had developed and honed in 2024-2025 using Starlink, which produced gains in 2025, but which was denied them at the start of February this year. This is also the process that was adopted by Ukraine (DefMin Fedorov) beginning at the start of this year that showed real success in limiting Russian gains.
But it now seems, and there is more of feel than hard data on this, that the Russian attacks on Ukrainian logistics has become just a bit more effective in the last month and that Ukrainian forces, which seem to have challenged Russian forces for the initiative in the past 4 or 5 months, may again be losing it to the Russians. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on the Russian oil industry and on other elements of the economy continue, but arguably, Russia is adapting - as Ukraine has - and people are learning to live with the pain.
None of this means large or rapid changes in the battlefield, as it remains “not that kind of war.” But it will add greater strain to an already strained nation, on top of the continuing Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid.
All told, I think both countries will have hard winters, but it appears at this point that the continuing grinding damage done to the Ukrainian power grid will make this winter in Kyiv worse than last.
v/r pete
