October 19th, 2026       British Surrender at Yorktown 1781

NEXT SUMMARY WEDNESDAY, the 21st

Politics - Protests  at the Mayor’s office

- Starshield and Intelligence support

- Zelenskyy says Trump withholding Patriots

Combat Ops - Little change on ground

- Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

59 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to cloudy all week, light rain Tuesday night. Daily lows in the 40s, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

63 and rain, winds gusting over 25. Rains taper off tonight, cloudy or partly cloudy all week. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

55 and rain, gusting over 25. Rain tapers off early tonight, more rain on Wednesday. Partly c to cloudy all week. Daily in the mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Several hundred to several thousand people (sources vary in the estimate of the crowd) gathered in front of Mayor Klitschko’s office to demand his resignation, after President Zelenskyy accused him of failing to prepare the city for winter.

Klitschko responded by accusing the central government (the Zelenskyy administration) of failure to collaborate on city services and slow-rolling on the transfer of funds and then lying about it. The Mayor also asked why the central government has failed to provide adequate air defenses for the city.

A second crowd also appeared, in support of Klitschko and demonstrated against the demonstrators.

President Zelenskyy insists Starlink - Starshield restrictions remain in place and that the system will not support flights in excess of 160KPH (100 kts).

Further revelations suggest this is different than it appears.

Starshield, is an encrypted, jam-resistant service similar to Starlink but developed for the US military. In December 2024 a contract was signed with the Pentagon that provided a total of 3,000 terminals and Starshield support to Ukraine for 2025.

It appears (though there are gray areas) that that contract was, for whatever reason, not renewed, and accordingly expired. So, when SecStare Rubio noted that Ukraine does not have access to Starshield, he meant they had no contract. 

Starshield, when provided to Ukrainian forces at the end of 2024, was provided with certain limitations, unlike the system as presented to the US military. (It would be a reasonable leap to assume that all the functions of Starshield have been made known generically to Ukrainian forces, and that they have asked (probably repeatedly) for those capabilities).

Starlink is a commercial system that has many of the same features as Starshield but is not designed for military applications, though it has been used for such purposes before (to include - illegally - by Russian forces).

It is not clear but it appears that Ukrainian forces retained some access to Starshield into 2026, after the contract ended. 

At the same time, there was, apparently, no change in the intelligence support provided to Ukraine by the Pentagon 

Meanwhile, President Trump posted this on his 

My decision on Russia is a very simple one. I am in the process of negotiating Peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and don't want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table. Great progress is being made, and that includes current hostage negotiations! Signing that document at this time will do that, and I can sign it later, or any time that I want! Perhaps more importantly, Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic of Iran, compared to what they could be doing, and I want to keep it that way, and will, unless stupid people get in the way. Lastly, Zelenskyy is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelenskyy doesn't care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn't want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead. I WANT THIS WAR END! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Earlier today President Zelenskyy accused President Trump of withholding Patrito missiles from Ukraine:

"We have paid for this weapons. Only a portion has been approved by the US, while the rest has not. And this is not a technical malfunction.”

He noted that the US is only providing Ukraine with 12 Patriot missiles per month — 1/4 of what was provided under President Biden.

Ground Operations

Overall there has been little change on the ground over the last 4 days.

There are several spots - one spot near the border east of Sumy, two east of east of Slovyansk, where Ukrainian forces were imaged in terrain reported by Russian bloggers as under Russian control. In these three cases the terrain noted was either fields or woods outside of towns, and represented no tactically significant change.

Similarly, Russian forces were noted to have conduced infiltrations and recon probes inot terrain in the Kostiantinivka area, Dobripillia area, and near Orikhiv, but again, none of this was tactually significant.

Two items are of note:

Multiple reports of small unit movements by both sides in the Kostiantinivka area, and at the north-west end of the city; Russian forces do not fully control the city but Russian presence in much of the city is increasing in density and Ukrainian control is now a narrow salient into the city about 5 miles long and less than a mile wide, printed north-west to south-east. The rest of the city is the now expected “checkerboard of Russian and Ukrainian positions, but the Russian density is slowly increasing. It will become increasingly costly to keep the salient open, particularly as logistics support will, for the next several months, be forced onto roads and hence more easily targeted.

Still, Ukrainian resistance inside the city is said to be holding ground; expect Russian use of guided 1100lb bombs to increase.

And:

More reports have surfaced of Russian raids on the islands of the lower Dnepr River, with multiple Russian raider craft (rubber boots) landing on islands near the mouth of the river. As usually for such events the reporting lacks all detail, but there is some new effort on the river and it bears closer watching.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 17th-October 18th Ukrainian forces conducted a large raid on the city of St. Petersburg, the Leningrad Oblast generals, and Crimea, and Russian air defense forces claiming to have shot down a total of 1,015 drones. 

Targets included a data and server center, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, a large commercial warehouse, and a bridge.

During the night of October 16th-October 17th Ukrainian forces struck a Gazprom facility in Surgut (about 1200 miles east of Moscow).

During the night of October 15ht-16th Ukrainian forces struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery (about 1025 miles south-east of Moscow).

President Zelenskyy commented on a ceasefire on oil refineries in the wake of Russian strikes on Kyiv, noting “We’re done.” Ukraine forces then struck the Russian oil refinery at Ryazan (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces also struck the data center for the Russian State Bank in Saratov.

Russian Forces

During the period from October 18th-October 19th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Banderol loitering munitions, as well as 269 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it had shot down or defeated 4 cruise missiles and 243 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 dead and 19 wounded.

During the period from October 17th-October 18th Russian forces launched multiple Iskander ballistic missiles and 180 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 152 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Rivne, Lviv, Lutsk, Odessa, Ternopil, Volyn, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 7 dead and 17 wounded.

During the period from October 16th-October 17th Russian forces launched at least 23 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Kalibr cruise missiles, an unknown number of Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, and 332 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 Kaley cruise missiles and 289 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites. 6 Iskander struck the Zaporistal steel mill. 

Civilian casualties included at least 3 dead and 47 wounded.

During the period from October 15th-October 16th Russian forces launched at least 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and associated infrastructure, as well as logistics related sites.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 24 wounded.

Two more tankers were struck by drones while in Romanian waters:

MV Sea Destiny (Marshall Islands Flag, 623 feet, 55,000 DWT) was struck by a drone inside Romanian territorial waters.

MV Dania J (Tanzania Flag, 279 feet, 3,500DWT) was struck inport Izmail, Ukraine. In both cases the types of drones were not specified.

Seven sailors are still missing of the tanker Wine Trader.

Technology

The UAF reports that Russian forces launched some 3,520 jet-powered strike drones, and 4,900 piston engines strike drones in September; the UAF noted that it engaged 90% of the piston engine powered drones (roughly 4,400 of 4,900) but only 54% of the jet-powered drones (roughly 1900 of 3,520).

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that some Russian long-range strike drones are being fitted with incendiary warheads; the drones normally carry a 22lb (10kg) explosive warhead. The size of the incendiary warhead was not given.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct16 Oct19

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 106.00 107.80

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 97.98 100.50

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95 3.16 3.11 3.14

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.57 6.60

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 85.55 82.63

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.90 45.09

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 114.30 111.06

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 131.92 139.86

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 112.20 113.70

ESPO Forward (January deliveries) are 130.93.

Thoughts

Concerning the US importation of diesel fuel, the total purchase of the Russian diesel fuel will total cost perhaps $6 billion. The US has purchased other energy related material from Russia during the course of the last five years to include: between $3 and $4 billion in the first half of 2022, and a similar total amount ($3-4 billion) in enriched uranium over the course of 2022 through 2026, so, not quite $ 8 billion through this year, plus the roughly $6 billion in diesel fuel, a total of perhaps $14 billion in 5 years.

During that period the EU has purchased $209 billion (the European Commission’s number) or $266 billion (per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (an independent Finnish group - CREA)), or $321 billion per Russia’s Energy ministry.

European nations continue to buy energy from Russia. Belgium, France, Hungary, Slovakia and Spain are still buying natural gas from Russia and will continue to do so through December 31st, when it finally becomes illegal in the EU. 100% of Belgium’s LNG purchases in July were from Russia.

So far this year the EU has purchased some $21 billion in energy from Russia in 2026, to include 12.2 million tons of LNG (about $8 billion). Current estimates are that Russian energy sales to the EU for 2026 will total around $25 billion.

Turkey - NATO ally - will, it’s estimated, purchase between $27 and $29 billion in energy from Russia this year.

v/r pete       

Something Versus Nothing

October 18th, 2026

As you may, or may not, recall, early on in the Russia - Ukraine war it was pointed out that the Russians were using tens of thousands of artillery rounds per day and the US and Europe started pushing artillery rounds into Ukraine to match Russian artillery. Several things followed and more howitzer rounds (155MM howitzers), mortar rounds, and battlefield rockets (HIMARS - the HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System) were rushed to Ukraine. And, the slow, then rapid production of drones - small, short range drones (the FPV - First Person Video - drones) followed.

In the last year or so the drones have captured seemingly all of the attention, but the artillery is still a major slice of the problem.

Now, Ukraine has done some marvelous things - granted, with the aid of components and funding from the West - and are hoping to reach a production rate of 19,000 drones per day (7 days per week) by the end of this year (Russian production is about the same). But they’re still using howitzers and HIMARS. When it became clear that more rounds were needed, a good deal of attention was focused on the US and European production of ordnance. This all was taking place by late 2022.

While this was going on, it was also pointed out that the Russian economy was not strong, that Western sanctions would weaken it further, and that there was a distinct possibility that the Russian economy would fail within a year or two, so the experts said. Nevertheless, it was deemed appropriate to fix various weapons programs and to more generally press ahead with weapon development programs and increased defense expenditures.

It is, of course, worth pointing out that the US and Europe combined have 3 times as many people and 20 times the collective GDP of Russia, as well as leading the world in virtually every field of technology.

So, how have we done?

Consider the 155MM artillery shell. As of early 2022 the US Army was buying some 175,000 shells per year. (Recall that Ukraine was using well in excess of 5,000 per day, some days more than 10,000 per day). Over the course of 2022-2025 Ukraine fired well in excess of 4 million rounds. The US Army, which overseas the manufacturing of 155 rounds, aimed to increase production to 100,000 rounds per month by October 2025. As of March of 2026, per the Pentagon’s Inspector General, production stood at 36,000 per month, with a goal to get production to 71,000 per month by September (last month). No word yet on whether that has happened.

As for Europe, they were producing a combined total (there are several plants) of perhaps 35,000 per month. They set a target goal of 167,000 per month (2 million per year) by 2025. Hard numbers have not been released this year but estimates suggest the total is a bit more than 100,000 rounds per month. But production will reach 150,000 per month in 2027.

As for battlefield rockets (like the that go into HIMARS), current production sits at just under 1,200 per month, with a goal of increasing production to about 1600 per month by 2028.

As Annie sang: Tomorrow is only a day away…

And the failing Russian economy? The Russians have sustained a steady production rate of 152MM (their analog to the 155MM), 122 MM, and 120MM Mortar rounds of 12,000 per day (4,000 each per day, 120,000 per month - 1.5 million each per year). And, the Russians seem to be maintaining a rate of 1400 - 1500 battlefield rockets per day (500,000+ per year). That would be the Russians with the failing economy and the broken Defense Industrial Base. So much for net assessments.

What about the big ticket items? What about Patriot missiles to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles?

When the war started production stood at 350 per year (call it 30 per month). Lockheed did manage to increase production slightly in 2023 to somewhere in the neighborhood of 500 missiles year (almost 40 per month), and in 2024 produced 500 (biggest year ever) and in 2025, reportedly 620. Finally, in January of 2026 a new contract was signed with the Pentagon to increase production to 2,000 per year by 2030. 

Finally!

Of course, Russian Iskander ballistic missiles and S-300 missiles (a surface-to-air missile that has been adapted to be used in both an anti-aircraft mode and as a surface-to-surface missile) can only be shot down by Patriot missiles (maybe by Aster 30s, but those haven’t been provided to Ukraine yet in any numbers yet). The Russians are producing 60  x Iskander missiles and 50 x S-300s per month. S-300 production is supposed to double by the end of 2026 (these numbers are per Ukrainian Intelligence, and are not otherwise confirmed). But even as production stands as of early 2026, the Russians are producing some 110 ballistic missiles per month. In addition, the Russians are making some 10 x Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles per month, 4 x Zircons per month and 7 x Oniks per month - missiles that also can only be engaged by Patriot. That’s 130 missiles per month, rising to perhaps 180 per month by the end of the year, that can only be addressed by Patriot missiles. So, if 100% of Patriot production - in 2030 - were to go to Ukraine, it would roughly equal Russian missile production. Of course successfully engaging these missiles sometimes requires 2, or even 3, Patriots… 

So, answer this: How is it that with as clear a demand signal as is possible: a war on Europe’s doorstep, there is still this fumbling around, and this de facto lackadaisical approach, to the West’s defense industrial base?

And it’s not just in artillery and rockets.

How many years have we been hearing about China’s shipbuilding and yet the Navy staff is being dragged, seemingly kicking and screaming, into new shipyards and new ships. Does anyone think the Navy will begin work on a new ship any time soon? Anyone who knows the system knows the truth: there are bureaucrats - many in uniform - dug into places like NAVSEA and NAVAIR (and their opposite numbers in the Air Force and the Army) who deep down in their hearts of heart intend to wait out the current administration and then go back to business as usual.

Here’s the thing: it wasn’t always like this.

The U-2, which is still flying, progressed from approval of a basic idea to first flight in less than a year.

The A-12 / SR-71 went from approval to first flight in less than 3 years, for an airplane in which we had to develop technology that didn’t exist at time of approval.

USS Nautilus - the first nuclear powered ship of any sort - went from approval to her first shakedown cruise in 47 months.

USS Enterprise (CVAN-65 - with 8 nuclear reactors) was ordered in November 1957, was launched in September 1960, and was at sea on a shakedown cruise in January 1962, and was fully operational prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Meanwhile the USS Zumwalt, laid down in 2011, first deployed on 2019 - to Alaska, reached Guam in 2022, moved to Pascagoula for upgrades in 2023, and has evolved into a de facto white elephant.

The V-22 - which Secretary of Defense Cheney tried to kill - first flew in 1989, wasn’t fielded 2007. Similar stories about the F-35 and the USS Ford are familiar to all. And maintenance delays on virtually every ship are now nearly legendary.

C-17s are great airplanes but they’re all getting old. Don’t overthink it, just restart the program. We don’t need a new airframe, we just need airlift.

Simply put, better is the enemy of good enough. An old boss of mine, a superb sub skipper, used to note regularly whenever issues like this came up that you can’t beat something with nothing. A submarine without all the bells and whistles, or an aircraft, or a cruiser, may not be exactly what you want. But a basic cruiser here now, at sea, is far better than an empty ocean and a promise of a “really great ship” in 10 years.

Go back and look at the Navy’s ship building history from 1882 - 1932; the Navy went through more ship designs than one can easily count. Orders were stopped and designs were changed. We learned, the Navy evolved. Surely we can write contracts like that today, Surely there are a few people in Congress who understand. Surely there are one or two people at NavSea, et al, who get it. Surely there are some folks around who can fix the problem of a new forge for artillery shells NOW, not next year.

There are people at the top who are trying. God bless SecNav. But there are bureaucrats - and many Congressional staffers falls into this category as well - who have no sense of urgency. They believe they can continue to study the problem. They all need to go. And bring in some new people who will stop talking and start doing.