November 10th, 2026 Tomorrow Veterans Day / Armistice Day

Politics - First day of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi

- Zelenskyy: Russia targeting bridges

- Germany: no more Patriots for Ukraine

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Ground ops tempo slows

Economics  - Budgets and Deficits 

Weather

Kharkiv

39 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain on Wednesday and again on Friday. Temperature in the low 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

42 and cloudy. Cloudy and rain daily through Saturday. Daily lows in the 30s, highs in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

41 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy and rain all week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

The Kremlin commented that het first day of talks were “…very productive," but "There's a lot of work to be done in that regard. It's not like something that's on the verge of being solved in the next 24 hours or anything like that."

Beyond the US, Ukraine and Russia, representative from France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the EU, and NATO were present in Abu Dhabi, but the talks were just among the US, Ukraine and Russia.

Ambassador Witkoff noted that the discussion included “how to build upon existing European security institutions and agreements” after the end of fighting, and the need for “credible security guarantees.”

“The shared objective is to develop a practical and mutually reinforcing security framework that strengthens Ukraine’s long-term security and builds the confidence necessary to reach a negotiated settlement.”

President Trump commented:

“I think we’re going to have it done, and I think it’s going to happen and they’re going to end up with a little bit different shape Ukraine.”

President Zelenskyy has commented that he expects concentrated Russian attacks on the bridges over the Dnepr River.

There are 32 bridges and 7 hydro-dam crossings of the river. This has long been an obvious concern - and long discussed - first noted in 2022, that if the Russians really wanted to complicate the Ukrainian situation, they would start dropping bridges across the Dnepr…

SecState Rubio in response to a question as to why there is dialogue with Russia, after a comment by EU foreign policy director Kallas that Russia doesn’t bargain in good faith.

Well, look, we're just going to keep trying. I mean, in terms of - I can certainly tell you that your chances of success are zero if you're not trying, so we're going to continue to try. We seem to be the only country in the world and the President the only leader in the world that can get the Russians and the Ukrainians to the same table. But we recognize it will not be easy to reach an end to this. If it was easy, we would've done it a year and a half ago. This war's almost on its fifth - going into its sixth year in February, so we - we understand the difficulty of it, but I think the President deserves credit and his team deserves credit for the amount of time they've put into this despite the fact that it hasn't proven productive to this point. At some point, this war will end, and it will end, we all believe, through a negotiated agreement. And so we're going to keep trying. and that's what - that's what's going on today and over the next couple days. But yeah. No, I mean, I think if we don't try, the chances of it working are zero.

Germany’s MinDef Pistorius stated on Saturday (the 7th) that Germany has exhausted its supply of Patriot missiles and has no more missiles to provide Ukraine. Earlier in the year Germany gave Ukraine 5 x PAC 3 Patriots. Germany’s actual number is not reported but is estimated to be several hundred missiles.

As noted last week, Germany is scheduled to receive 75 x PAC 3 in 2028 and 45 PAC 3 in 2029, but none until then.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishi refinery (about 60 miles south-east of St Petersburg) on the night of November 8th.

Ukrainian Forces struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery (about 90 miles east of the Kerch Strait), in Krasnodar Krai, on November 6th. This is the 5th time the refinery has been struck this year. The refinery has a total output of a it over 6 million tons per year - the 9 million tons per year quoted n the press is the intended output after a planned expansion. 

There is no figure on the actual output so far this year (at full capacity it would have produced a bit more than 5 million tons through the end of October). 

Ukrainian forces also struck the Saratov Refinery (400 miles south-east of Moscow) on the 6th.

On November 5th Ukraine forces struck the oil refinery in Ryazan (90 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces struck the Yaroslavl refinery on the 2nd; Yaroslavl is about 150 miles north-east of Moscow.

Russian Forces

Between November 3rd and today, Russian forces continued their strikes against Ukrainian power generation capabilities, the power grid as a whole, and against transportation and logistics infrastructure. Strikes included glide bomb attacks on the port facilities in Odessa and  at least 4 Iskander ballistic missiles striking the north bridge in Kyiv.

Overall Russian forces launched at least 53 ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace, as well as 50 cruise missiles, an unreported number of Banderol loitering drones, and at least 1,371 strike drones.

Ukrainian forces engaged and brought down 3 of the anti-ship cruise missiles, no Iskander ballistics missiles, 49 cruise missiles and at least 558 strike drones - though the reporting on strike drones suggests that the actual number brought down is on the order of 1,200 - but the count was not released.

Multiple civilian killed and wound were reported but there is no final count.

Damage was reported across most of the county, and power outages were also reported over much of the country. As usual, the bulk of the strikes and the bulk of the damage took place in the greater Kyiv area. The Kyiv area was also suffering through water supply issues, on top of the power outages.

The northern bridge, struck on the night of the 6th-7th, has been repaired and was partially reopened on Sunday.

Technology 

As an indicator of the small drone war that continues on a daily basis along the front lines, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Russian forces launched 7,947 strike drones on tactical strikes on November 5th, and claimed to have intercepted 7,225 of these drones. The intercept number is probably accurate, the total number launched is, arguably, an undercount. Nevertheless, it gives a sense of a “routine day” on the front line - a near constant “buzz” of lethal drones.

Analysis by “Defense Industry Europe” suggests that the Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missile has had a 15% success rate in striking designated targets, with a total of 6 confirmed hits out of 39 launched.

This sounds bad, but it isn’t simply a poor missile. Rather, the numbers fail to account for Russian air defense forces and for electronic warfare counter-measures.

It should be noted that Ukrainian forces are engaged in much the same sort of defensive efforts; the enemy always gets a vote.

And in the world of EW, Ukrainian forces have begun deploying a more advanced EW system around Kyiv to interfere with the newer Russian command and control links for strikes into the Kyiv area.

Ukrainian Intelligence also reports that Russian forces are fielding a further modified long range strike drone - Geran 5K, smaller and narrower than the Geran 5, 275 kts, 600nm range, and a 90kg (200 lb) warhead.

Ukrainian intelligence reports modifications to Iskander ballistic missiles to include active radar seeker heads and electro-optical seeker heads, and that CEP has reportedly been reduced to 1 meter (take with salt). They have also reportedly improved the S-300 / 400 missile (not further described) to increase lethality against bridges.

Ground Operations

The essence of the ground war for the last week is “more of the same,” though overall, the tempo of operations on both sides has decreased bit, primarily due to weather.

Infiltrations continue along most of the line and there are reports of small changes, but there are no tactically significant changes in the line.

Ukrainian forces have published more detail on the offensive operations begun in February, stating that Ukrainian forces in the area south of the Vovcha River (along the south-east sector of the front, west of Donetsk City) have retaken 800 sq. KMs of land (about 300 sq miles, a block of farmland and towns perhaps 20 miles long and 15 miles wide).

The situation is little changed in the center, but Ukrainian forces reporting of increased numbers of Russian positions to strike in the north end of the city, suggests that Russian forces are slowly consolidating control over Kostiantinivka.

There are also more reports of Russian infiltrations onto the islands at the mouth of the Dnepr River as well as raids onto the western bank of the River, in the area just north of Kherson city.

Ukrainian forces also reported that they have concluded a 7 week operations in northern Sumy oblast that cleared about 2.5 sq. miles of forest along the border east of Sumy city, killing 107 Russian troops and capturing 29.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Nov3 Nov10

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 105.30 89.80

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 97.47 84.69

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95   3.16 2.91 3.23

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.02 5.88

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 81.52 82.99

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.60 45.36

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 91.03 72.96

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 N/A 118.57

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 117.03 99.38

ESPO Forward, 03 November - N/A

More reports of Russian economic strain, with this year’s deficit reaching 2.2% of GDP. Unfortunately, this compares budget deficits in Poland (7.2%), US (6.1%), France (5.1%), UK (4.4%), Finland (3.8%), Italy (3.1%), Turkey, 3%), and Germany (2.9%).

Thoughts

A report has surfaced that suggests, based on documents hacked from Russian systems, that there have been some 450,000 Russian KIAs in the war.

This number is consistent with reporting from one reliable source (Mediazone) which has shown a steady tracking of Russian casualties.

Mediazone put Russian KIAs at 365,000 last Sumer (August 2025), so 75,000 in 14 months, just below 5,000 per month. This is consistent with certain other, somewhat obscure, data points. As importantly, it points to a rate of KIAs that has fairly solidly tracked at 5,000 to 8,000 per month, and only rarely exceeded those limits. 

What is left out of this report is any mention of Ukrainian casualties, but that number is roughly the same, the same tactics and the same results, and also ties into the averages, leaving Ukrainian KIAs at approximately the same number, with lower and upper cases on the order of 400,000 - 475,000 KIAs.

v/r pete

Good and Other:

Raise the Bar

November 8th, 2026

I was reading an item in the news about how certain folks had approached a certain issue and the word that occurred to me - as it often does when I read such articles - was “mediocre.”

I’ll contrast that with some folks I found myself among just the other day. I was at the funeral of VADM Tony Less. If you ever had the chance to meet him, you are better for it and you will not have forgotten him. An A-4 and A-7 pilot over Vietnam, the first squadron commander of the Blue Angels, an Air Wing commander, captain of USS Ranger, Commander of a Battle Group, etc, etc, etc. Always calm and easy going, yet at the same time, for 34 years in uniform, he personified excellence and the idea that we can do “that” (whatever that might be) better.

And at the funeral Mass were a host of folks who had served with him, all of them practitioners of that pursuit of excellence: pilots with hundreds and hundreds of combat missions, MiG kills, and all those various marks of fighter excellence.

And there is a lesson there, a lesson about how to get better. 

Someplace else you might find that is at Tuskegee. If you have a few minutes, after you find VADM Less’s bio, search online for MG Mark Brown, who is now President of Tuskegee University. Read some of his interviews, he’s clearly on the right track, we need more of him.

In my mind, the phrase “Good and Other” serves to encompass the entire idea. The first time I saw the phrase “Good and Other” it was written on a white board in the squadron ready room with a vertical line between the two words. What followed was a debrief of a flight of 2 x F-14s that had just spent about an hour out over the ocean off San Diego, engaged in “ACM” (Air Combat Maneuvering) with 2 x A-4s from a squadron on base whose major function was to provide “aggressor aircraft” (bad guys) for the F-14 squadrons to fight, and thereby hone their skills.

I was a new guy in the squadron and was still in quiet awe of virtually everyone in the squadron. What followed was eye-opening. The briefer - who had been flight lead for the 2 x F-14s - proceeded to rip into tiny shreds nearly everything that the two crews had done. As I recall, there were 2 or 3 bullets on the “Good” side, and the rest of the board was filled with “other” - stuff they had either gotten wrong, or really wrong or totally messed up.

I was stunned. How could these guys - who were the creme de la creme, get so much so wrong?

And while there was some arguing, for the most part, they noted and took notes and when they did argue, they argued over fine points, not ego.

Then I started to notice something as the debrief continued. The “conversation” wasn’t simply “you did this wrong,” the debrief included Why this or that maneuver was wrong, and what they had missed in the moments prior to the maneuver that led them to doing the wrong thing, and then how to fix that problem, not simply what is a better maneuver, but how to assess a situation and make the right choice to drive the developing situation into one that you can control and the other guy can’t. 

And then, assuming we had the flight hours (fuel money), they would try to do it again, either that afternoon or the next day.

I saw this again when working with some folks who were retired SEALs, the task being to train SEAL teams in preparation for deployment; it was the same story: an element of the SEAL team would conduct some specific action and there were observers (all retired SEALs from one of those units that doesn’t exist) watching every step, and then, when the SEAL element returned to the post, they would, just as with the fighter aircrew, go through very detailed debriefs of everything they had done. 

Always there were a few things that went well, as with the fighter aircraft.

And there was a long list of things that could be done better.

And always there followed a discussion on how to fix this, how to get better, how to avoid this or that mistake, why you should do “B” rather “A,” how to exploit this or that mistake by the other guy, how to drive the problem and the enemy into the solution you want.

And then they would go off and practice and the next night’s exercise would be modified to force these same SEALs to walk through the same sort of problems and address them.

What struck me about both these situations, and I was fortunate to run into others as I wandered through a Navy career, was that it was the very best pilots, SEALs, submariners, etc., the real cream of the crop, (and the Army and Air Force have similar “Pros” who are as demanding) who were the ones who were most critical of the day’s training - including their own.

Always the focus was on outcomes, always they were forced to “leave egos at the door,” (and rank - which cannot make a “good” out of an “other”), always they were expected to learn, always they were expected to go out the next time and get it better.

MG Brown (President Brown) has reduced this to a simple phrase you - that everyone - can use to address every day when you get up, no matter what you do. He is an Air Force guy but as some friends of mine would say, we’ll forgive him that. His statement is in league with US Navy and Air Force and Marine fighter pilots, with SEALs and Army Special Operations, with those elements in each of the services that simply do not accept the current performance, no matter how good it might look from the outside. President Brown simply asks, and I suspect VADM Less would echo his thoughts: “Why don’t we raise the bar?”