May 1st, 2026

Politics - New Personnel Policies

Combat Ops - Marginal gains on ground

- Ukrainian strikes continue on Russian oil

- Ukrainian strikes pass Russia in March 2026

Weather

Kharkiv

46 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend, mostly sunny next week. Daily lows in the low 30s through the weekend, in the 40s next week. Daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

50 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the week, rain on Monday. Lows this weekend in the 30s, next week daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

51 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, but mostly sunny next week. Low tomorrow in the mid 30s, lows in the 40s next week, high tomorrow in the mid 50s, this weekend and next week highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy announced changes to personnel policies in the Ukrainian military, which will ostensibly allow for the de-mobilization of personnel for the first time since the start of the war.

"I have instructed [Ukraine's military leadership] that the contract system in the defence forces be strengthened so that, by expanding the contract component, defined service duration terms are ensured and – starting already this year – a phased discharge from service becomes possible for those who were mobilised earlier, based on clear time-based criteria."

"Next week, I expect a report on concrete steps to implement the reform – including the schedule for increased payments starting in June and the system of updated contracts.”

This follows on the order signed out by Gen Syrskyi yesterday specifying mandatory 60 day rotations off the front; all of this in the wake of a rising chorus from the general population on what is perceived as very poor treatment of army personnel.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north and east of Sumy City, and north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Both sides reported the other side was attacking in the area east of Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces gained ground in the terrain south of the town of Kolodyazi, creating a narrow salient in mainly open farmland, between the towns of Zarichne on the east side and Stalky on the west (all north-east of Slovyansk). 

Further south, Russian reporting suggests Russian forces now control the town of Zakitne (about 15 miles east of Slovyansk). Zakitne, which sits on the south bank of the Donets river, with the west end of the town in an oxbow in the river, has been the site of what was termed heavy fighting and Ukrainian forces made a determined effort to retake the town earlier in the year. 

In eastern Kostiantinivka and in the terrain just east and south-east of that city, imagery confirmed several Ukrainian recon elements had infiltrated into Russian positions. 

Fighting continues further to the west but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian forces do claim that Russian forces pushed into  Novooleksandrivka, a village just north of Hryshyne; this hasn’t been confirmed but is credible.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to probe into each other’s lines but there were no confirmed changes in the lines. Reporting does indicate Russian recon probes have reached into Hulkiiaipilske and Charivne, two small towns about 10 and 12 miles south-west of Hulyaipole.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces again struck refineries in Perm and in Tuapse. The Tuapse refinery continues to burn, with at least 24 storage tanks at the facility having been destroyed. The refinery is currently shut down. The refinery has an installed capacity of 240,000 barrels per day.

Ukrainian forces struck two Russian patrol boats (“Sobol” and “Grachonok”) near the Kerch Strait early in the morning on April 30th, the attack carried out by USVs. There has been no independent report of the extent of damage to either patrol boat.

During the night of April 30th-May 1st Russian forces launched at least 409 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 388 drones. 

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 12 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 towns.

During the night of April 29th-April 30th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 206 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 172 drones. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Dnipropetrovsk city.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. 

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 18 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 22 towns.

Russian forces launched 6,583 long range strike drones into Ukrainian airspace during April, a 2% increase over March.

Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in Russia totaled a bit over 7,000 in March 2026, the first month of the war in which Ukrainian long-range drone use was greater than Russian long-range drone strikes into Ukraine (6,583).

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr30 May1

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 114.30 108.30

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 104.90 101.40

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.62 2.78

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.44 6.38

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.90 75.02

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.94 43.90

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 116.06 112.05

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 117.44 117.44

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 109.53 103.41

Thoughts

Overall, Russian recon elements continue to probe into the center of the city of Kostiantinivka, while Ukrainian elements push back, and continue to infiltrate into “no mans land” east of the T0504 roadway. The painfully slow Russian way of war has, however, pushed the edge of the “gray zone” from 4 - 5 miles east of Kostiantinivka, one of Ukraine’s "fortress cities,” to the middle of city, over the course of the last 6 months. The objection is made that the Russians are barely making progress, and that at this rate it will take Russia decades and decades to conquer Ukraine. Further, Russia is said to be taking huge casualties, 5 times as many as Ukraine, if the Ukrainian General Staff is to be believed.

But, they aren't to be believed. Ukrainian officials have admitted that they are having difficulty keeping overall force strength at 800,000, despite taking in some 25,000 - 27,000 every month. In as much as no one is allowed to leave the army (note the paragraph above in changes in personnel policies) except those who are severely wounded and can no longer serve, that means that the Ukrainian casualty rate (KIA + Severely wounded + desertions + POWs) is roughly at a rate of 25,000 permanent casualties per month.

Note that, per the Ukrainian army medical leadership, 70% of all wounded return to full active duty status, most of them within 30 days. Russian army leadership makes similar claims about Russian casualties.

Gen Syrskyi just a week or so ago commented that Russian casualties are on the order of 35,000 total casualties (KIA + All WIA + POWs) per month. That would translate into roughly 6,500 KIA + 6,500 severely wounded + 21,000 other wounded + 1.000 POWs per month, or 14,000 permanent casualties per month.

This underlines the Russian army effort: to fight a war of attrition and grind down the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian countryside.

Ukraine’s strikes on the Russian oil industry has been quite destructive, but the Russian campaign of attrition is equally or perhaps more destructive. How the changes in Ukrainian personnel policies will affect the actual flow of personnel into the army remains to be seen. It is worth noting that Ukrainian army figures are suggesting that by the end of this year or early 2027, Ukrainian forces will be launching 30,000 FPV drones per day across the front (10 million per year) and suggest that this will allow them to drive the Russians back, implying that the smaller infantry footprint in the army will be more than compensated by the increase FPV drone use.

v/r pete 

 April 30th, 2026

Politics - Mandatory Troop Rotations at 60 days

- Grain ship departs Israel

Combat Ops - Some Marginal gains on the ground

- More drone strikes, Ukrainian forces hit Perm

- Drone intercept numbers

Weather

Kharkiv

49 and mostly cloudy, winds gusting over 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the 50s, but warming beginning Sunday. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

54 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain on Monday. Daily lows near 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

45 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the weekend, but mostly sunny next week. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s for the next several days, but warming on Sunday, next week lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Gen Syrskyi, Commander in Chief of the Ukraine armed forces, has signed an order that limits troop ratios on the front lines to 60 days. At 60 days all troops will have mandatory rotation to the rear, and each will have a mandatory medical examination.

Syrskyi also noted that troops on the front lines must be regularly supplied with food and ammunition.

This follows the recent removal of the Commander of the 14th Mechanized Brigade after reports surfaced (to include pictures) of troops who were emaciated and the commander has been accused of concealing the conditions of his forces from the chain of command. The matter is now under investigation.

The difficulty in troop movement and in resupply is a consequence of the persistent presence of FPV drones over the battlefield.

An Israeli importer has refused to take delivery of the grain on the MV Panormitis, beloved to be carrying Ukrainian grain stolen by Russian forces, and the ship has departed Israeli waters.

Russia has announced that it will not include military equipment at the annual Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9th.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the line of contact, but there were no changes to the line. Russian sources claimed minor gains along the border region east of Sumy City but these have not been confirmed.

There were no changes north of Kharkiv City or along the border north of the Oskil River.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues in and just east of Kupyansk, as well as south-east of Kupyansk, and imagery confirms continued Russian recon elements infiltrating Ukrainian positions, but there were no changes to the front line.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues across this entire front, and there were confirmed gains by both the Ukrainians and Russians in the terrain north-east, east, and south-west of Kostiantinivka, but these are small unit (squad-sized) gains, further expanding the “checkerboard” of intermixed positions.

Ukrainian sources insist that the Russians are suffering from a manpower shortage and this prevents any gains, though it should be noted that the Ukrainian forces are reportedly suffering their own manpower shortage and have in the past used this kind of commentary to both mask and report their own difficulties.

There is also some confusing reporting on Russian control - partial control - of Novodmytrivka (a village of perhaps 100 houses just north of central Kostiantinivka), with Russian claims of having taken the town and other claims that the control is not complete, meaning they have most of it, and that Russia forces need to control terrain to the north and north-east of the town to fully exploit it.

That said, that seems to miss the other point, that Russian forces have managed to push 2.5 miles north-west of the T0504 roadway and now have forces to the north and south of the city, developing a slow but growing envelopment of Kotiantinivka.

Further to the west a Ukrainian element pushed into Russian controlled terrain and appears to have seized a farm about 2 miles north of the north edge of Pokrovsk, and are holding that position.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed several marginal gains by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, but no substantive changes in the front lines.

Further west, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed further into Novodanylivka (just south of Orikhiv) and may have reached the southern edge of that town. There is some symbolism here: just a bit further south of the town was the old defensive line from which the Ukrainians began the counter-offensive in 2023. When the Russians pushed north in Novodanylivka last fall they were taking “new territory.” At least for now, Ukrainian forces have taken it back.

Further west, Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack Russian forces in southern Prymorske, but Russian forces continue to hold positions in that town.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of April 28th-April 29th and again during the night of April 29th-April 30th Ukrainian forces struck the oil transfer station in Perm, apparently striking the storage tanks and causing a large fire. This is the 19th strike on a Russian oil facility in April, to include 2 on Perm (a bit more than 700 miles east-north-east of Moscow) and 3 on Tuapse (on the Black Sea). In most cases the Ukrainian strikes appear to be targeting the storage tanks, not only affecting refinery operations (oil has to go somewhere as it exits the refinery), but also creating very large, very visible, and noxious plumes of smoke. 

During the night of April 29th-April 30th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 206 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 172 drones. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Dnipropetrovsk city.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. 

There was at least 1 civilian killed and 18 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 22 towns.

During the night of April 28th-April 29th Russian forces launched at least 1 ballistic missile (unknown type) and 171 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 154 drones. The ballistic missile struck Dnipropetrovsk city.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. 

There were at least 6 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

The UAF has released data showing drone intercept results:

Of more than 300 counter drone teams, who all apparently have been trained to the same standards:

- 66 crews have intercepted 10 or more drones

- 170 crews have zero intercepts 

The UAF report noted that this indicates that there are enough teams, but that the problem is in organization, command and control, and how they are utilized (SOP for deployment).

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr29 Apr30

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 117.50 114.30

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 105.30 104.90

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.56 2.62

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.65 6.44

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.76 74.90

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 44.09 43.94

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 108.57 116.06

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 111.40 117.44

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 102.89 109.53

Thoughts

The issue of drones remains near the center of the war, right beside manpower.

The press has fawned over Ukrainian drones, and they have done some remarkable things, but this is a two way street. And the interdiction of supplies to the front lines has been squeezing both armies. 

Interestingly, Ukrainian forces have regularly noted Russian forces rotating in and out of forward areas, while Ukrainian forces remain forward for extended periods of time. Clearly, the 60 day period is better than no planned rotations. But, as one of my correspondents related, by the time the trench war in the west settled in, during WW I, the rotation periods dropped to 1 week forward and several days to the rear. While the constant cannon fire of the Western Front has gone, the constant faint buzz of drones would seem to be as disturbing, particularly in as much as the targeting is so much more lethal.

Syrskyi has called for 60 days and a medical exam… implementing that may be a challenge.

v/r pete