April 8th, 2026 Orthodox Easter April 12th

Passover ends April 9th

No Summary on Thursday

Politics - Hungary’s elections on Sunday

- Norwegian F-16s

Combat Ops - Few changes

- Drone strikes 

Economics - Oil Prices drop

 

Weather

The brief return of cold weather and rain will complicate movement again for a few days and further complicate the ground war. This weather is forecast to last into the weekend.

Kharkiv

44 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain showers possible very day. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and rain showers. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Thursday and Friday. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

44 and cloudy, gusting to 40, snow showers tonight. Snow or snow - rain mix Thursday and Friday, cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the low to mid 40s. Winds northerly, 15kts.

Politics

Hungary’s parliamentary election April 12th, with much of the EU and Ukraine hoping that PM Orban’s Fidesz party will lose to the Tisza and he will be replaced by Peter Magyar; Orban has been in power for 16 year.

In Ukraine, documents and tapes leaked from a government investigation suggest that members of Orban’s government, to include the Foreign Minister, worked with Russian officials to delay Ukraine’s admittance into the EU.

The Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK) reports that, of the 6 x F-16s promised to Ukraine by Norway in August 2023, none has been delivered, two are receiving maintenance in Belgium (and have been there for more than a year), the other 4 aircraft are not flight worthy, and each requires more than a year’s worth of work once removed from the crates in which they are currently stored.

The Verkhovna Rada has “terminated” the powers of Daria Volodina, a member of the Servant of the People Party, following her announcement of her resignation. This leaves the Servant of the People’s Party with 227 MPs; 226 MPs are necessary for a clear majority (450 total MPs).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

.Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no charges to the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City and east of Kharkiv along the border, but there were no changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues around Kupyansk and east and south-east of that city, as well as further south, in the area east and north-east of Borova, but again there were no changes to the front lines.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had pushed into central Yampil (about 12 - 14 miles east-north-east of Slovyansk), Yampil had a pre-war population of almost 2,000; the town has changed hands several times and been subject to a great deal of artillery fire and by the end of 2022 it was noted that every building in town had been damaged by artillery fire; the Ukrainian unit imaged in town on the 6th was being shelled at that time.

South-east of Slovyansk there are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains outside of Nykyforivka and fighting taking place inside that town as well as to the west of that town.

Probes continue into Kostiantinivka and fighting is reported to the east and north-east of the city but there were no changes to the lines.

Russian forces continue to conduct probes and assaults north and north-west of Pokrovsk and this would appear to be the most active section of the front. But again, there were no changes to the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian forces continue probes south and south-east of Verbove but there were no changes to the front lines

Fighting was reported in the Hulyaipole area but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting was reported in the vicinity of the Antonovosky bridge, up river from Kherson City, but as usual there were no details. 

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of April 7th-April 8th Russian forces launched at least 176 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 146 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least killed and 1 wounded

RuAF tacair struck 8 towns.

During the night of April 6th-April 7th Russian forces launched at least 110 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 77 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 killed and 19 wounded

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr7 Apr8

Brent      94.71   63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 109.90 91.78

WTI     92.10   59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 115.50 93.53

NG       3.97      4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.86 2.73

Wheat      8.52  5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.96 5.79

Ruble     85          80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.43 78.54

Hryvnia 28.6 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.56 43.45

Urals 91.66 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 121.17 124.85

ESPO 94.52 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.77 103.27

Sokol 99.31 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 107.29 96.88

Reporting on Urals and ESPO oil prices sometimes run late, but obviously oil prices reflect optimism that there will be a ceasefire in the Gulf.

Thoughts

Overall, there is very little confirmed change to the entire front line since the last few days of March. Ukrainian and European reporting continue to insist that the Russian spring offensive has begun (some have assigned the date of March 18th as the start) but the total number of assaults on the line have not changed appreciably. Note that in most areas Russian forces continue to conduct recon probes into Ukrainian terrain, but these probes can’t be said to change the front lines. There has been both a slight increase in the number of assaults in the Pokrovsk area, as well as near Kostiantinivka and east of Slovyansk, but at the same time Ukrainian forces reporting notes that essentially all Russian forces movements are now just a handful of troops and in some cases recon probes are executed 1 man at at time, with groups of 3 - 5 troops slowly assembling inside the target area. 

The improved Ukrainian drone operations and the reduced effectiveness of Russian drone operations (the latter because of the loss of Starlink for command and control (C2), the first as a result of copying the Russian Starlink C2) is at least partly responsible for the very slow grind on the front lines. The switch back to colder weather, and rain (and muddy roads) is also not favorable for support to forward elements. 

I think there may also be some wishful thinking in some channels, that if the current activity is labeled a Russian offensive, then the lack of Russian progress can be trumpeted as a demonstration that Russia is losing. At the same time, the improved Ukrainian drone C2 supported their counter-offensive south of Verbove (between Hulyaipole and the Vovcha River), but there have been no Ukrainian gains in that area since the last few days of March.

v/r pete 

 April 7th, 2026 Orthodox Easter April 12th

Passover ends April 9th

Politics - Power Plant hit, war on energy continues 

Combat Ops - Russian Navy Frigate struck

- Few changes on the ground

 

Weather

The brief return of cold weather and rain will complicate movement again for a few days and further complicate the ground war. This weather is forecast to last into the weekend.

Kharkiv

43 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain showers possible very day. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

47 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy for the rest of the week, afternoon showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

40 and raining, gusting to 20. Cloudy through the weekend, rain on and off through Saturday, snow possible Friday and Saturday. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy posted commentary on Russian targeting of transportation systems - originally trains, now to include busses. 

"The russians [sic] continue their targeted terror against people in Nikopol and other cities and communities near the front line. The other day there was a cynical attack on the Nikopol market, which took the lives of five people, and 28 more were injured. In fact, there are constant "safaris" against people in Kherson: there are victims every day. It is important that a significant part of the drones are still managed to be shot down. But when such terror against people and life occurs every day, blocking new sanctions against russia [sic], attempts to ease sanctions and trade with russia [sic] look wild.” 

On April 6th, DonbasEnergo halted operations at the Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Mykolaivka (about 7 miles east-north-east of Slovyansk) in the wake of Russian attacks on the facility, and the need to safeguard their employees. Three employees were killed in a Russian attack on the TPP in February.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the front lines north of Sumy City, but there were no confirmed changes.

It can't be confirmed, but anecdotal reporting suggests that both sides have slowly pulled units from this area, the Ukrainians shifting them to the south, the Russians pulling them back and reconstituting them, presumably to then push them forward again.

Fighting also continues north of Kharkiv city but there were again no confirmed changes to the lines.

East of Kharkiv, along the border north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had moved into the terrain just west of Mylove, just north of Ambarne, and probably into Ambarne - Ambarne is a tiny village (maybe 20 houses), located in the middle of farmland, a little over 3 miles from the border.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues east and south-east of Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Ukrainian forces continue to report that a Russian element of 10-15 troops are still holding the remains of the (ruined) hospital in Kupyansk and are being resupplied by small drones. 

Fighting also continues east and north-east of Borova, but again with no confirmed changes in the lines.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery confirms Russian forces operating in the area of Rai Oleksandrivka (about 9 to 10 miles east-south-east of Slovyansk), though it is not clear that they control that town. Imagery did show Russian forces in what are assessed to have been Ukrainian trench works and suggested they were clearing the area. Meanwhile, imagery shows Ukrainian elements remain north of Riznykivka.

Ukrainian forces note that there is a slow build-up of Russian forces east of Slovyansk (well behind Russian lines) and speculate that there will be a push against Slovyansk.

Imagery confirmed new Russian probes into Kostiantinivka, but there is no meaningful change in the tactical situation in or around that city.

Fighting also continues further west north of Pokrovsk and north-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines in these areas.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian recon probes into Ukrainian positions in and around Ternove and Berezove, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Fighting continues wedge nd south-west of Hulyaipole but there were again no confirmed hangs in the lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

President Zelensky posted that Russian forces launched 2,800 strike drones, almost 1,350 glide bombs, and more than 40 missiles into Ukraine during the past week. Note that the Russian use of glide bomb usage remains in the range of 175 - 200 per day and has for the last 3 months.

Ukrainian forces struck the Ust-Luga port facility north-west of St Petersburg this morning. And, a fire continued to burn all day yesterday at the oil loading pier in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.

Baltic Sea oil and gas loading facilities have been damaged and reportedly loading at Ust-Luga was suspended for 9 days (March 25th - April 3rd), and naphtha loading was down 70% from that same port during the last week of March.

Imagery confirmed that last night a Ukrainian surface drone (USV) struck a Russian navy frigate (Admiral Makarov, an Admiral Grigorovich class frigate, 409 ft, 4,000 tons, 8 x Kalibr or Zircon surface-to-surface missiles, 24 x surface-to-air missiles), in port Novorossiysk.

During the night of April 6th-April 7th Russian forces launched at least 110 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 77 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 killed and 19 wounded

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr6 Apr7

Brent      94.71   63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 106.40 108.80 109.90

WTI     92.10   59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 103.60 110.60 115.50

NG       3.97      4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.84 2.86

Wheat      8.52  5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.94 5.96

Ruble     85          80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.88 78.43

Hryvnia 28.6 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.52 43.56

Urals 91.66 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 90.97 121.17 121.17

ESPO 94.52 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 84.99 117.03 103.77

Sokol 99.31 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 101.55 105.70 107.29

Thoughts

It still isn’t clear that a Russian spring offensive has begun. As for an assault on Slovyansk, an attack from the east or north-east would require the Russians to cross open fields and press through several towns or small cities - a difficult task in this war. The easier approach would be from either the north, which would still require reaching and then crossing the Donets River and crossing open fields, or the south-east, essentially following the route of the M03 roadway. That said, the Russian army doesn’t appear to like tricky maneuvers and appears well adjusted to the slow, steady pounding approach. It is, after all, a war of attrition… 

Tip of the hat to the Ukrainian navy for the strike on the frigate, but, the Russian navy continues to amaze me. In 1904 they had at least some of their torpedo nets out, and so stopped most (not all) of the Japanese torpedoes at the battle at Port Arthur. That 122 years later, and 4 years into this war they still don't have barriers (there should be inner and outer barriers) in their harbors and around their ships to protect them is remarkable. The Russian army has shown that it can learn, the Russian Navy appears to not have that capacity.

I would also add that the breadth and depth of reporting on the war dropped after the start of the strikes into Iran and continues to slowly decline. I think it’s remarkable that in the world of instant communications, digital cameras, and AI, the world struggles to cover two wars at once. And the lack of understanding of the many difficulties that must be overcome to produce accurate bomb damage assessment is also “enlightening.”

v/r pete