August 17th, 2026

Politics - Russia preparing to attack NATO?

- Drones shot down August 13th an 14th

Combat Ops - Few changes on ground

- Strikes continue, drones improve

Weather

Kharkiv

86 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

85 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week, except Wednesday - possible afternoon showers. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

82 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25, light rain tonight. Rain tomorrow, then 2 days of clouds, then more rain on Friday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that “US Intelligence sources” believe that Russia “could be planning” a limited incursion against NATO in the coming weeks.

The wording is typically atrocious; of course he could be planning. 

At the same time Russian ForMin Lavrov announced on Friday that Russia will continue striking Ukraine, but will target Western support.

"We have submitted a series of questions to the State Department requesting comment, including on the matter of intelligence data and the fact that the US is far more deeply involved in organizing and executing strikes deep within Russian territory against civilian targets. We await a response.”

"Russia will intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and seek to destroy every element used by the West to sustain Kiev’s war effort.”

Lavrov accused Ukraine of "brazen acts of terrorism,” then added:

"We will not sink to their level. Instead, we will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kiev’s war machine. We are already doing this, and they are already moaning.”

 

On August 13th a Spanish Air Force F-18, on a NATO mission, shot down a drone over  Romania. On August 14th an Italian Air Force, on a NATO mission, operating out of Lithuania, shot down a drone over Latvia.

Lithuanian DefMin Kaunas had earlier commented that there was intelligence that suggested Russia was preparing a flat flag operation using Ukrainian drones.

“We have information that Russia is considering carrying out unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.” 

“It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this. Since Ukraine successfully attacks Russia, some of the Ukrainian drones are intercepted by Russia while defending themselves, and some of the drones crash. Russia has these drone parts or fragments, and it is capable of constructing them, molding them into a working device, and the theoretical possibility that such drones could be used for a false flag operation exists.”

Ground Operations

Overall, there was little change on the ground, with only small confirmed changes along the line, multiple false claims of gains by Russian forces, continued Russian recon probes and infiltrations, and the never ending drone, artillery and glide bomb strikes. 

Some hard fighting is reported east of Slovyansk and Russian forces are being supported by multiple glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions. Multiple glide bomb strikes against hardened Ukrainian positions are noted daily in the fortress belt cities  of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhivka, and Kostiantinivka.

Further north, in the Kupyansk area, Russian forces continue to probe back towards Kupyansk and had confirmed small gains on the east bank of the Oskil River, just opposite Kupyansk.

Russian forces continue to slowly consolidate positions inside Kostiantinivka but the city still remains a patchwork of Russian and Ukrainian elements.

Further west, Russian forces continue to press north and west in the general Dobropillia area, and multiple glide bone strikes were reported in that city as well, over the weekend. Nevertheless, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces retook terrain just north of Bilytske, just south-east of Dobropillia.

Further to the south-west, Ukrainian forces claim that Ukrainian forces have retaken Fillia, just south of Novopavlivka.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian facilities involved in weapons production, as well as oil industry and logistics centers.

During the night of August 13th-August 14th Ukrainian forces again struck the Ust-Luga oil refinery, east of St. Petersburg. Russian sources reported 1 civilian was killed and 6 wounded.

During the night of August 14th-August 15th two Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missiles struck the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara City, Samara Oblast. The facility builds elements of the Soyuz rocket. The facility was reported to be on fire.

During the night of August 15th-August 16th Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensy plant in Rostov Oblast. The plant produces propellant for the Russian multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), among other things.

Also struck was a Wildberries warehouse in the Moscow area.

During the night of August 16th-August 17th Ukrainian missiles struck a logistics center in Belgorod. Russian sources reported that the strike killed 6 civilians and wounded 4 more.

Russian Forces

For the week of August 9th - August 15th Russian forces launched over 1,550 long range strike drones, 62 missiles (the bulk being ballistic missiles) and almost 1,560 glide bombs.

During the night of August 13th-August 14th Russian forces launched at least 112 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF did not report on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 27 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 5 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).

During the night of August 14th-August 15th Russian forces launched at least 152 strike drones and a number of missiles into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF later reported that 127 drones and 3 Banderol loitering drones were brought down.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilians killed and 13 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 13 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).

During the night of August 15th-August 16th Russian forces launched a number of ballistic and cruise missiles and at least 106 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles  and 85 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, and Poltava oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. More than 10,000 homes in Chernihiv suffered a power outage.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 22 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

During the night of August 16th-August 17th Russian forces launched at least 128 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 106 drones.

Damage was reported in oblast Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 16 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 4 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).

Odessa was struck hard over the weekend, with 5 dry cargo ships struck, as well as fuel tanks and warehouses.

Drone technology contains to advance. Ukrainian forces note that Russian drone communications links are shifting to frequency hopping spread spectrum links, further complicating efforts to jam control links. These drones are now operating up to 24 miles (40KM) beyond the front lines.

Russian drones are also being quipped with microphones to transmit audio to the controller to allow “sleeper” drones (drones that are sent forward, landed, and then wait for a potential target to pass near) more opportunity to identify possible targets.

Also of note, is that the number of Russian strike drones powered by jet engines continues to climb.

Early in the year Ukrainian efforts in drone engagements has resulted in, on an average night, between 5% and 10% of strike drones getting past air defenses. Over the past month or so, as more jet engine powered drones reach the battlefield, the percentage has inched up to roughly 20%.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9        Aug7 Aug13 Aug17

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 88.08 88.85

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 82.29 82.57

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64   2.74 2.69

Wheat     8.52          6.14    5.82   6.06  6.35   6.53 6.70

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.35 84.90

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.71 44.80

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 84.86 85.10

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 85.68 85.02

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 84.72 83.47

Thoughts

A threat consists of two things: capability and intent.

Russia has all sorts of plans to do all sorts of things; the plans exist. Putin knows of the plans and certainly can order them adjusted.

Russia has a demonstrated capability to conduct cyber attacks, drone attack, missile attacks, special operations attacks, etc. It has developed a long list of capable drones and missiles and has built a series of forward bases in Russian and Belarus that, given current drones, can reach Turkey and much of Eastern Europe. And certainly Russian planning staffs have drafted plans that would allow the use of these various capabilities, singular or in concert, to strike into NATO countries.

Presumably, only Putin has the authority to order such a strike. Whether he will or won’t is speculation. Even if Putin were overheard discussing doing this, it still would depend on his final decision. Lavrov’s comments are of note, but the real issue is the capability, which is real, matched with Putin’s intent, which is unknown. 

Meanwhile, cyber attacks have been going on for years. 

And drone attacks have, in fact, already taken place. Several months ago two Ukrainian drones “went off” course and struck the same building in Lithuania. 

As for the idea of a “false flag” attack, at this point everyone is going to blame Putin anyway, so the false flag issue seems to me to be moot.

In the last few incidents NATO fighters have launched and intercepted the drones - Russian forces undoubtedly have a handle on response times and capabilities. A false flag attack isn’t going to tell him anything he doesn’t already know.

If there is anything to this, the issue is for Putin to really test NATO’s response: from an operational perspective, how well does NATO respond to 8 or 10 drones and what is the immediate follow-up, which forces go on alert, etc. More importantly, what is the political response out of NATO of 8 or 10 drones hitting a warehouse or two full of weapons headed to Ukraine? That would be something Putin might want to know.

v/r pete  

A World At War

August 16th, 2026

Perhaps a year ago one of my correspondents asked whether it’s possible that the next great power war - the next world war - has already started. It’s worth remembering that there was a great deal of fighting around the world in the years prior to both WWI and WWII which have since been pointed at as “indicators” that something was wrong, that the world was about to come off the rails, and in some cases were directly responsible for elements of what came to be called World War II. I’ve since answered that I think we might draw some analogies between the wars in the Balkans in 1912, or the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, the Italian war in Abyssinia, the Spanish Civil War… but none of this is in any way dispositive. There are a long list of differences between now and those two periods. 

But, at the same time, there are far more risks today. Not only are the economies of the US and its friends more dependent on external supply lines, many of those supply lines involve several of our would-be enemies. Not only does the US and many others import both finished goods and raw materials from China, consider that Europe is still buying LNG from Russia and will continue to do so until the last day of 2026. Add on top of that the presence of both cyber warfare and nuclear weapons and this is a far riskier world than in 1914 or 1939.

At the same time I’ve heard discussions of computer modeling of the world which suggests that there are indeed great generational shifts that occur and that we are entering the heart of one likely period some time in the next 12 - 24 months. Per the modeling, the great generational shift will revolve around a truly existential war.

But, these models aren’t exact, and my earlier estimate could easily have been off; perhaps we already missed the start. In short, has the world war already begun?

To provide some small measure of clarity, IF there is a world war in gestation, the bad guys are clear: Russia (only listed first as they have 5,000+ nuclear weapons), China, Iran and North Korea.

Have they formed a “Pact of Steel” as Germany and Italy did? No. But, arguably they wouldn’t want to. Better to keep everyone guessing. But two things are fairly clear:

They ARE cooperating, And China is the ring leader.

First, Chinese writing spells out that they’ve been waging Political Warfare aggressively for quite a few years. Per the Center for Strategic and International Studies; this is taking place literally cross the entire spectrum of political, economic and military activity’s and includes intelligence operations, cyber operations, information warfare, military operations (regular and irregular), economic coercion, etc. 

As has been recently pointed out, a good deal of the negative Artificial Intelligence reporting in the West begins in China, even as China aggressively pursues AI. Chinese refineries have for years used various schemes to access sanctioned Iranian - and Russian - oil. Multiple reports suggest Chinese air defense systems are being sent into Iran. Chinese components are key elements of the various drones and missiles Russia is building launching at Ukraine.

It’s not difficult to see how a militarily exhausted US, and Europe, benefits China and Russia. Meanwhile China maintains a strong grip on the rare earths markets, which play a vital role in the various technologies found across our entire economy, not just our military and intelligence sectors.

The Chinese effort is pervasive. They’ve made every effort to touch every sector of our society and economy. The Chinese Communist Party’s fingers can be found trying to touch everything from missile seeker heads to new stories on social media.

There’s no doubt that the Chinese want to see us weakened, as do the Russians, and the Iranians want to see us destroyed. And certainly there are folks in each country smart enough to recognize an opportunity when presented with it. Perhaps it has already happened, perhaps they are already moving forward with some sort of coordinated effort.

The question is: What might we do?

There are some obvious points: reduce dependence on China, Russia and Iran; strengthen alliances, strengthen economies, rebuild our militaries.

All these things NEED to be done. In particular in Asia alliances need to address China directly. And the US needs to develop sources of rare earths and other items that are in friendly terrain. And there are other obvious points that have been well discussed by folks smarter than I.

But what if the war has already started, that is, the folks in Beijing and Moscow already consider that the war is on, but are waiting for some situation that they might exploit to strike hard at the west - politically, economically or militarily? Is there anything we can do to stop them before they take that action? Is there anything that we might do to deter them from progressing to, if you will, the next phase of the war?

There are two types of options I think that we might consider:

Full scale economic isolation, not applied gradually, but applied all at once, on Russian and China as well as Iran. This sounds satisfying but in fact the economies over lap so deeply that this would do a great deal of damage to the US and our allies.

And, it is the sort of thing that has lead to war before - see Japan, 1941…

The other option might be to “escalate to deescalate.” That is, do something very destructive, more than, arguably, anyone wants to address and cause everybody to pause, because no one would want the situation to escalate any further.

Consider for example a nuclear strike on several of the Iranian nuclear sites, Pickaxe mountain et al. Russia and China would not be directly affected, key sites are well away from population centers, and it would shock the entire world, which in this case is, arguably, what is  needed. 

There will be an immediate gasp that THAT can’t be the right answer. But… What is clear is that the war in Iran has demonstrated that Eisenhower’s thesis that you cannot deter a great power with conventional weapons is correct. Conventional forces of all kinds are needed so that we can, if necessary fight conventional (that is, non nuclear) warfare when and if needed. We need a means to deter a great power, and in particular, to convince a great power to stand down after a war has already begun…