June 19th, 2026

Please reply (just to me) if you have missed any summary in the past week. I have been receiving multiple “Could Not Deliver” messages, but the names vary from day to day. Trying to figure it out… Sorry for the inconvenience.

Politics - Aid to Ukraine

- Russian oil sanctions waiver expires 

Combat Ops - Few changes, Russian activity increasing around Kostiantinivka

- Air operations continue - both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

73 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with 250 million Euros ($285 million) to develop drone capabilities and an additional 250 million euros to purchase US weapons.

Germany will provide $400 million to Ukraine, half of which will be for the purchase of Patriot missiles.

The UK will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones and 350 surface to air missiles by the end of the year.

Sweden will provide $108 million for weapons purchases.

Belgium will provide Ukraine with 3 operational F-16s and 4 F-16s as hangar queens.

The US - Iranian MOU is in effect and the US has let expire the waiver on sanctions on Russian seaborne oil.

President Zelenskyy called for the EU to accelerate Ukrainian entry into the union, and asked for help to prepare for next winter with more air defense systems and missiles, and pressed for eat need to apply pressure on Russia to end the war.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine deserved membership as it has paid for Europe’s security and freedom.

"Every democratic nation in Europe deserves EU membership, and Ukraine deserves it because it has paid more than any other country for its right to be free, independent and... European. The future of Europe - free, united and, of course, peaceful - is decided in our defense.”

"Of course, we want to end this war by winter - through diplomacy and pressure on russia. But we understand who we are dealing with. Putin is a war.” 

Slovak PM Fico met with President Zelenskyy on the 18th and afterwards concluded that the tow governments have opposing views on key issues, but wants to continue dialogue with Zelenskyy. Fico stressed that he places Slovakia’s interests first but that: 

"One can have different views and still maintain cooperation. And I want to ask to respect Slovak views.” 

Ground Operations

There were essentially no changes in the front lines along most of the front. 

Russian forces had marginal gains north-east of Slovyansk, gaining ground in the town of Zakitne (which has changed hands several times in the last several months). Russian infiltrations also continue into and around Lyman. Due east of Slovyansk there is a good deal of reporting of troops in contact, but the line has only showed marginal changes in the last several weeks.

Of note, Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka and in particular into that city from the west, which negates the advantage of the bluff that looks down on the center and east side of the city. The number of Russian troops in the city probably remains below several hundred, scattered about in a dozen or more elements. But there are multiple reports of more recon probes and infiltration teams pressing into the west and center of the city.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces had small gains north Hulyaipole, but the overall situation remains unchanged. 

To give some indication of the scale of each action, Ukrainian forces reported a Russian “motorized assault” just south-east of Orikhiv, pointed at it as it was unusual - a “motorized assault;” the assault consisted of 20 motorcycles and 12 ATVs and resulted in 10 Russian casualties.

Air and Maritime Operations

As reported yesterday, the Ukrainian strike on Moscow on the 17th was part of a perhaps 600 drones launched into Russian airspace that night (the night of the 17th-18th). Regular Russian reporting does not provide an overall number, just the number that were shot down. However, Russian engagement success have averaged between 90 and 95% - when those times the numbers get out (the same success rates as Ukrainian engagements), but they did claim 555 successful engagements, ergo 600 total.

The Russian MinDef later claimed that on the 16th (night of 16-17 June) Russian air defense shot down 992 drones and 4 missiles. This would imply an 1100 drone and missile strike. 

These are substantially larger strike packages than normal for the Ukrainian Air Force and are reflective of President Zelenskyy’s statement that they were in retaliation for recent strikes on Kyiv.

Ukrainian strikes into occupied Kherson oblast left 20,000 residents without power.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 90 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79  drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 4 civilians killed and 25 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.

Ukraine’s Deputy PM Kuleba reported that Russian drones struck two merchant ships in the Black Sea, one Panamanian flag, 1 crew member killed, 1 wounded, and a Nevis and St Kitts Flagged vessel, on which 3 crewmen were reportedly injured.

However, there have been no other reports of these incident, the ship names have not been released, nor are there any other reports; normal shipping incident channels are, so far, quiet.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 7 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 239 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 212 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; the energy ministry reported power outages Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Poltave, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least  1 civilians killed and 10 wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun18 Jun19

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 78.50 79.81

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 75.33 76.02

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.17 3.22

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.20 6.13

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 73.28 73.33

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.93 44.86

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 64.54 61.19

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 77.55 77.55

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 74.55 75.62

Thoughts

Some more numbers to chew on and some questions: 

If Gen. Syrskyi is being completely honest, and Ukrainian drone use rates are 1.5 times that of Russia, and we know - via Ukrainian sources and released comments from intelligence agencies in the Baltics - that Russian drone use is over 10,000 per day, that would place Ukrainian use at 15,000 per day, which is credible in that they were trying to get to 19,000 by the end of the year (as are the Russians). 

Ukrainian artillery (howitzers, battlefield rockets and heavy mortars) fire is on the order of 3,000 - 4,000 per day (Russian forces are using  about 12,000 per day).

IF we use the Ukrainian number of 39,000 Russian casualties per month, and we assume that all casualties are caused by drones or artillery fire (both the Russians and Ukrainians suggest the number is around 90%), then this would work out to 450,000 drones and 36,000 - 48,000 shells per month, or roughly 500,000 “rounds” causing 39,000 casualties, or 13 rounds per casualty.

If we adjust for other data (90% of casualty caused by drones and artillery), and reduce the number of Russian casualties to the more likely 21,000 per month (6,000 KIA 15,000 WIA), 18,900 casualties caused by drones and artillery, we end up with one casualty for every 26 drones or artillery round. When we consider that half of all casualties are returning to combat (true on both sides), this number doubles: 52 FPV drones per hard casualty.

There is now an immense amount of data; it needs to be pulled apart. Then, we might want to ask a few questions (partial list):

Would better ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) help?

What is the right mix of FPV drones and surveillance drones? 

Would an increase in lethality (warhead size, etc.) improve the casualty count? Increased speed? Increased range? Etc… 

Would a tighter, perhaps AI assisted, Command and Control (C2) improve or degrade results?

How much training do drone operators need to maximize their lethality? What is the point of diminishing returns on training? Is there one?

What percentage of successful attacks are carried out by small, highly trained units and what percentage by “rookies?”

How effective are multi-axis, swarm tactics as opposed to “sniping?”

Of the roughly 90% of FPV drones sorties that are not a success, how are they “lost?” (Bad ISR, bad command and control, enemy electronic warfare, shot down, technical malfunction, etc., etc.)

v/r pete       

 June 18th, 2026

Politics - G7 meeting - leaders comment

- Bodies Exchanged 

Combat Ops - No significant changes on the ground

- Drone wars continue - Moscow Refinery

Weather

Kharkiv

73 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

71 and light rain. Partly to mostly sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms Tuesday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and cloudy, gusting to 30. Rain showers tonight, Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend, thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Overall, the G7 restated support for Ukraine as well as a desire to restart peace talks, while also promising to continue to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.

Some statements from G7 leadership:

Macron: 

The balance of power in Ukraine has changed; Ukrainian forces are advancing while Russia is retreating. We want to support Ukrainian air defenses. The G7 summit was held under complex circumstances and allowed for coordination to address current crises and challenges.

Trump on Russia-Ukraine: 

Both are losing a lot of soldiers, Russia's losing more, because they're the offensive ones, and when you're offensive in war, you lose more, pretty simple. I think they both want to do something, they just don't know how to do it.

He added:

“We had a very good conversation with President Putin and a very, very good conversation with President Zelenskyy. I think they both want to do something. They just don't know how to do it. They want to do it. They just don't know how.”

Zelensky: 

Just spoke with US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. An important coordination conversation that can change a lot. We summed up our negotiations at the G7 summit. I am grateful to President Trump for his attention to Ukraine and his willingness to help bring peace closer. I am grateful to Emmanuel for the excellent organization of the summit and the consistently strong joint work. We are working to strengthen Ukraine, our cooperation and diplomatic prospects. We need peace. And we are doing everything to bring peace closer

Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of dead yesterday, with Russia turning over 522 fallen Ukrainians and Ukraine turning over 30 fallen Russians. This brings the total bodies exchanged since the beginning of 2025 (when they agreed to the exchange) to 20,321 Ukrainian fallen returned by Russia, and 376 Russian fallen returned by Ukraine. There is still no explanation as to the glaring discrepancy between numbers of Russian bodies and number of Ukrainian bodies.

In a letter to EU members, EC President von der Leyen called on EU governments to add restrictions on accepting Ukrainian refugees. While her letter does not state it directly, it is believed that the EC is discussing barring Ukrainian men of conscription age from the “expanded temporary protection” status has been in place since March 2022.

Ground Operations

Russian recon probes and infiltrations continue north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv city, and also in several more spots on the border east of Sumy city. Fighting continues along much of the front line east of the Oskil River, but there were no changes in the line.

Further south, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position inside the city of Lyman, so, Russian forces have penetrated into the city. As with most other situations, there appears to be a developing patchwork on the north-east quarter of the city. There are Russian claims of probes into other parts of the city but those have not been confirmed.

Multiple infiltrations were reported in Kostiantinivka and the surrounding area but there is no confirmed change in the line and Russian reporting of control of most of that city is mainly propaganda. There were also Russian claims of taking the town of Stepy, (about 12 miles north of Pokrovsk), but there is no confirmation of that event.

Further to the west, south-west of Pokrovsk, and all across southern Ukraine, there are reports of Russian probes and Russian infiltrations, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces hit oil facilities in the Rostov area, outside of Belgorod, and, most spectacularly, in Moscow, the Kapotnya refinery, destroying at least two large storage tanks and generating a very, and very large and very “photogenic” fire.

The Russian MinDef claimed that 555 drones were shot down over Russia last night, 180 over Moscow; they did not comment on how many drones were detected.

Overall estimates of Russian oil production suggest that there has been a 5% drop in production year on year for the month of May, and that some form of gasoline rationing for civilians is now in place across most of Russia. It’s probable that Russian excess capacity is large enough to take up that slack but there will be both brief periods of drops in production and, perhaps more significantly regional shortfalls due to inability to store as a result of the destruction of storage tanks. 

The psychological impact may well outweigh the actual damage to Russia’w oil production capacity.

Both sides continue to strike at ground lines of communication (GLOC) in the rear areas, with the Ukrainians appearing to be a bit more successful, though this may well be a function of reporting. 

The Ukrainian General Staff noted strikes on two bridges in Crimea, and Crimean resupply appears to be stressed.

Both sides continue to strike at ground lines of communication (GLOC) in the rear areas, with the Ukrainians appearing to be a bit more successful, though this may well be a function of reporting. 

The Ukrainian General Staff noted strikes on two bridges in Crimea, and Crimean resupply appears to be stressed.

Russian forces also continue to conduct Ukrainian GLOC interdiction strikes behind the lines. Some analysts suggest that these strikes are purposefully targeting civilians but the numbers don’t seem to support that assessment with single digit or low double digit civilian wounded on any given day, while the average day sees Russian forces flying more than 10,000 FPV drones per day.

During the night of June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 7 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 239 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 212 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least  1 civilians killed and 10 wounded.

During the night of June 16th-June 17th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 119 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 97 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least 2 civilians killed and 2 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 Ukrainian towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun17 Jun18

Brent      94.71   106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 80.05 78.50

WTI     92.10   103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 77.22 75.33

NG       3.97      3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.14 3.17

Wheat     8.52  6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.14 6.20

Ruble     85          78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 72.80 73.28

Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.83 44.93

Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 64.16 64.54

ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 79.13 77.55

Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 74.67 74.55

Thoughts

The Propaganda War continues at full throttle. In the latest round, one well known analyst and retired army officer reported (yesterday) that in the previous 96 hours Russia’s entire northern front had collapsed, calling it a “tactical and operational collapse,” and that Russia had no hope to recover the front.

I have searched for any sign that this is so and again, as with his analysis 2 weeks ago that the southern front had similarly "collapsed along a 140 km front," could not find evidence of that collapse. I am a slave to the various web sites that I search through, but it would seem to me that if such a collapse had, in fact, taken place, major newspapers would be covering it. However it goes, one of us is very wrong.

As part of the propaganda war, the images of burning oil tanks around Moscow might be seen as a real “victory” by Ukraine and many will interpret it as sign that “Ukraine is winning.” (Note Macron’s comment).

I’ll leave that debate to others. 

Certainly, there is the possibility it will prod Putin to act to reach some sort of ceasefire. Conversely, it may well be interpreted as approaching an existential threat to Russia, and perhaps cross Putin’s red line - whatever that might be. Putin would then have several options, two of them are: first, he could declare a general mobilization and throw the entire army into the fight, doubling the number of forces inside Ukraine. Or, he could actually use tactical - battlefield - nuclear weapons. Much has been made of the idea that the Ukrainian strikes are cutting bridges into Crimea from the north. The use of low yield nuclear weapons on the bridges across the the Dnepr would cut the country in two. 

An interesting addendum - President Trump noted that overall KIAs - combined Russian and Ukrainian killed - are running “about 25,000 people every month.”

That number is, if not exactly what I have come up with, is at least of the same magnitude; my estimate is that total KIAs is on the order of 15 - 20,000 per month, split almost evenly between the two sides.

v/r pete