February 23rd, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy defines victory 

- Hungary says no to EU Loan

Combat Ops - Large strike night of the 21st

- Few changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy, snow tonight, tomorrow and into Wednesday. Through Friday daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the mid 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and partly cloudy, rain showers tonight, rain tomorrow, cloudy through Friday. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

32 and light snow, gusting to 20, windchill 23. Snow ends before midnight, cloudy for the next week, fog in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the 30s through Wednesday afternoon, then colder. Thursday through the weekend daily lows will be in the low 20w, but highs may reach 30. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy, in an interview with BBC, defined victory for Ukraine:

"I believe that stopping Putin today and preventing him from occupying Ukraine is a victory for the whole world. Because Putin will not stop at Ukraine.”

As to whether victory would mean restoring Ukraine to its 1991 borders:

"We'll do it. That is absolutely clear. It is only a matter of time. To do it today would mean losing a huge number of people - millions of people - because the [Russian] army is large, and we understand the cost of such steps. You would not have enough people, you would be losing them. And what is land without people? Honestly, nothing.”

"So at the moment it is impossible, but returning to the fair borders of 1991 is undoubtedly not only a victory, but also justice. The victory of Ukraine is the preservation of our independence, and the victory of justice for the whole world is the return of all our lands.” 

On Friday Hungary’s ForMin Szijjártó accused Ukraine of "blackmailing" Hungary as the EU works on a 90 billion euro ($106 billion), while Hungary demands that Ukraine resume letting Russian oil and and gas pass through Ukraine to Hungary - which was terminated January 27, after Hungary had agreed to support the loan. 

The loan will be interest free to Ukraine, the interest on the loan will be paid by EU members, minus Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

"We will not give in to this blackmail. We do not support Ukraine's war, we will not pay for it. As long as Ukraine blocks the resumption of oil supplies to Hungary, Hungary will block European Union decisions that are important and favorable for Ukraine.”

“Until Ukraine resumes oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, we will not allow decisions important to Kyiv to move forward.”

And, Slovak PM Fico over the weekend threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine unless the pipeline is reopened. 

At the same time, Paula Pinho, spokeswoman for the European Commission, said that the EC expects Hungary to honor the pledge it gave in December to approve the loan.

The agreement in December was that Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia would not pay their share of the interest on the loan, in exchange for approving the loan (which requires unanimous approval).

ForMin Szijjártó has also said that Hungary will not approve the latest sanctions package that the EU has drafted, and to be voted on today.

 

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes in the lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city and east of Kharkiv, north of the Oskil River, but there were no changes to the line in either area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area as well as east and north-east of Borova but there were no changes to the lines along this entire section of the front.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, imagery confirmed Russian forces operating in Riznykivka (about 6 miles west-south-west of Siversk). Ukrainian forces reporting notes Russian forces occupying Zakitne (about 6 miles south-west of Lyman), and further noted that Russian forces had pushed through Zakitne, and passed Kryva Luca and have entered Kalenyky. These are all small farming villages that are now mainly empty, having been “rolled over” several times in the last 4 years. Russian forces have claimed to have controlled Zakitne several times since the middle of January, but it now appears that they do, in fact control it, using extreme cold of last week to push across the ice on the Donets and take the town.

Ukrainian forces reporting notes heavy fighting taking place just north-west of Lyman as Russian forces try to cut the road into Lyman from the west and thereby isolate the city. 

Fighting continues just south-west of Chasiv Yar, and south-west and east of Kostiantinivka, but there were no changes in the lines over the last several days.

Further west, in the area north of Pokrovsk, though not confirmed by imagery, Russian forces appear to have made gains pushing westward from eastern Rodynske and may control that town. 

In the area of Pokrovsk, while there were no confirmed changes, Ukrainian General Staff reports fighting on the north edge of Pokrovsk, but there was no reporting from Myrnohrad or from most of Pokrovsk, and the small pocket immediately north of Pokrovsk is clearly being squeezed from the north and south and east. Other reporting also supports an assessment that Russian forces have gained some small pieces of terrain just north and west of Udachne, but this too is not confirmed.

There were no changes in the line further to the west and south-west to the Vovcha River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There is no change to the line north of Hulyaipole, in the general area of Verbove (about 20 miles north of Hulyaipole, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold the ground gained earlier in the month, but they have not advanced in since the middle of last week. Russian forces also made no new gains around Hulyaipole. 

South-west of Hulyaipole imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had regained some ground just west of Myrne.

Air and Maritime Operations

Per President Zelenskyy, during the past week Russian forces launched 96 missile, 1,300 strike drones and 1,400 glide bombs into Ukrainian air space.

During the night of February 22nd-February 23rd Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 126 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 105 drones.

Targets again included the power grid,, with more than 12,000 homes without power in Zaporizhzhia.

Civilian casualties reported include at least 3 killed and 6 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.

During the night of February 21st-February 22nd Russian forces launched 4 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 22 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 18 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 x Iskander K cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 297 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 2 Zircons, 8 Iskander ballistic missiles, all but 1 cruise missile, and 274 drones.

Targets were struck Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.Targets again included the power grid and logistics infrastructure, specifically the rail system. At least 16,000 houses were without power in Mykolaiv alone. 

Civilian casualties reported include at leas 2 killed and 34 wounded.

During the night of February 20th-February 21st Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 120 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 108 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid and warehouses.

During the night of February 19th-February 20th Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 128 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid. 

Civilian casualties reported include at leas 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

During the night of February 20th-February 21st Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian missile production facility in Votinsk (about 600 miles east of Moscow). The facility makes, among other things, the SS-29 (“Topol”) ICBM, the Iskander ballistic missile and the Kinzhal ballistic missile. There is no report on the extent of the damage. 

During the same night Ukrainian drones struck at a natural gas plant in Samara (about 500 miles south-east of Moscow). Imagery shows a fire and smoke in that area but there is no damage estimate.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb20 Feb23

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 71.21 72.05

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 65.97 66.85

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.98 3.09

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.72 5.76

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.84 77.02

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.25 43.29

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 58.58 57.78

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 N/A 64.76

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 67.21 67.21

Thoughts

Little change on the ground over the past three days, but the number of Russian probes and assaults remains high and the Russian use of glide bombs continues to slowly but steadily climb, as the Russians continue to improve their ability to reduce Ukrainian hard-points. 

The Russians were handicapped by the loss of the use of Starlink as a command and control system that was particularly useful in drone strikes. But, they appear to be adapting and Ukrainian sources note that a few good days but in the last few days more Russian strikes behind the lines.

Winter is still harsh in eastern Ukraine, so they can maneuver off the roads, but within several weeks the ground could start getting soft, at least in the south, and that will force folks back on the roads, and the Russian interdiction effort will become Monroe effective.

Meanwhile, the Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic frustration will continue. PM Orban and his part face a vote in April and currently his party his trailing. But there is reason to believe that there may be less change in regard to Hungary’s policies vis-a-vis Ukraine and Russia than Kyiv might want even if Orban falls out of power.

v/r pete 

 February 20th, 2026

Politics - President Trump extends Russia sanctions another year

- Ukraine’s Power Grid problems continue

- Gear and Assistance promised to repair Grid

Combat ops - No significant changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

27 and light snow, windchill 20. Some sun on Saturday and Sunday, then cloudy all next week, snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daily lows in the teens, daily highs in the 20s through Monday, then several days hovering at freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 31. Cloudy through the next week except Monday morning, which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 20s, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

23 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25; windchill 10. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then solid cloud cover for the next week, snow showers Monday and Tuesday, may turn into rain. Through the weekend daily lows will be in the teens, daily highs in the 20s, wind chills as low as zero. Then warmer, temperatures right at freezing from Sunday evening through Wednesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump extended sanctions against Russia yesterday’ The sanctions would have expired on March 6th; they have now been extended through March 6th, 2027.

Prime Minister Meloni of Italy commented on the status of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia; she noted that “important steps forward” have been made, but sees it as a starting point, "not so much a turning point as a contact on the ceasefire, which is still very far away in Ukraine." 

"The issue of the territories that Russia continues to claim, in my opinion, is completely unfounded.”

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid.

This morning in Zaporizhzhia, 41,000 homes were without power. By early afternoon, about 8,000 still had no power. Areas of Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy also were without power.

Last night Russian strike drones damaged the Naftogaz facility in Myrhograd, Poltava and caused a large fire. This is the 20th attack on the fact this year.

Ukraine, the EU and the US have finalized a 600 million Euro ($708 million) plan to purchase energy and 6 decommissioned CHPPs (Combined Heat and Power Plants). 

Minister of Energy Shmyal posted: “Contributions to the Energy Support Fund of Ukraine in the amount of more than EUR 250 million; agreements with the US on a separate assistance program through the SPARK project worth USD 276 million; agreement with France on EUR 71 million of humanitarian support to be provided in 2026.

"The equipment [from Austria, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany and Latvia], will be moved and quickly assembled. We are talking about at least 6 decommissioned CHPPs and TPPs that will be transferred to Ukraine. This way we will be able to quickly restore the operation of key stations destroyed by the enemy.”

"We are creating a new architecture for coordinating aid - a single energy pipeline - so that aid comes faster, the nomenclature meets our needs and the efficiency of its use increases. Together with the Baltic States, Poland, Finland, Denmark and Norway, we have launched the Regional Coordination Platform for Energy Sustainability for the countries of the EU's north-eastern flank. We will have a common framework for understanding risks and jointly respond to numerous challenges.”

Poland’s President Nawrocki yesterday signed into law the elimination of a "special assistance" for Ukrainians. Ukrainian refugees will now be covered by the  general law protecting all foreigners. This act also extends the period of legal stay of Ukrainian citizens in the country until March 4, 2027. 

Ground Operations

Overall, poor weather across most of Ukraine reduced somewhat the amount of activity on the ground. Note that the cloud cover also degraded overall imagery coverage of the front lines, so the situation at various points along the front may have changed but has not been detected.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Fighting continues both north of Kharkiv city and east of the city, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed marginal Ukrainian gains in central Kupyansk, though reporting also continues to suggest that the Russian force left in Kupyansk is less than a platoon (less than 40 troops) in size. Russian forces do continue to make small recon probes into Kupyansk as well,

Further south, there was fighting reported in the general area east of Borova and north of Lyman, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut, particularly in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed north-westward from terrain just west of Bondarne and have reached central Nykyforivka. This gives the Russians two “alients pushing north-west, on that has reached Pryvillia and the forces in Nykyforivka, though still about 15 miles form Slovyansk.

Fighting continues in eastern Kostiantinivka and points to the east and south-east of the city, but there were no changes in the line.

Further west, north of Pokrovsk (where there was no significant reporting), and in the Pokrovsk area, and to the west and south-west of Pokrovsk, there were no confirmed changes in the lines, though some Ukrainian reporting suggests Russian gains in Hryshyne, presumably in the eastern end of the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Haichur River north-west of Hulyaipole, and in the area of the small salients further to the north-west from the Haichur, but there are no reported changes to any of the lines in this ares, though there is an unconfirmed report that Russian forces have pushed back into Ternuvate, along the Haichur ( about 8 miles northwest of Hulyaipole) 

There were no confirmed changes to the line further west, to the Dnepr River.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of February 19th-February 20th Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 128 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Poltava and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid and 

Civilian casualties reported include at leas 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 301 Ukrainian drones, 10 missiles and two guided bombs.

During the night of February 18th-February 19th Russian forces launched just 37 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 29 drones. This is one of the smaller strikes in the past year.

Damage was reported in Donetsk and Kherson oblasts.

There were no civilian casualties reported.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

Russia has begun using Geran-2 drones as “mother-ships” to carry FPV drones deeper into Ukrainian airspace. The Geran 2 is one of the larger variants of the Shahed drone: about 11 feet long, 8 foot wingspan, weighs 440 lbs, with a 1,600nm range and a top speed of 100kts, with a 110lb warhead. FPV (First Person Video) drones appear to be attached on top of the drone, and once separated from he Geran, the Geran acts as a communications and video relay for the FPV “pilot.”

During the night of February 18th-February 19th Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Velikolukskaya oil depot in Pskov (about 150 miles south-west of St. Petersburg, 20 miles east of the Estonian border). Imagery confirmed a fire but the extent of the damage is unknown. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb19 Feb20

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 71.02 71.21

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 65.81 65.97

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.93 2.98

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.58 5.72

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.75 76.84

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.28 43.25

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 57.42 58.58

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 N/A since 17th

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 65.46 67.21

Thoughts

The relatively low level of activity is of note. Despite the fact that the actual number of reports of troops in contact was in a normal range (between 400 and 500 per day), the Russians continue to set the tempo, engaging and withdrawing. Said differently, the Russians retain the initiative on the ground. Ukrainian forces have had some successes - pushing the Russians out of Kupyansk, the two small salients north of Hulyaipole, but they are small. Further, as has been the case with both sides, when there is a success, it is slow and painful. 

The Russian troops in Kupyansk (one estimate several days ago said 22, another “30 to 40”) are all reportedly in the same apartment building. And they are holding on and the Ukrainians can’t dig them out. 

As for the two small salients, which the Ukrainians are quick to label as “not a counter-offensive,” seemed to proceed as have a number of similar events in the last 2 years (since fall of 2023): Ukrainian elements find a seam between two Russian units, they shift forces and attack, more nimble than the Russian forces, they penetrate perhaps as far as 10 miles in a narrow thrust, and then they are stopped and the Russians move additional forces into the area and slowly squeeze the salient shut.

Pervasive ISR makes very difficult any sort of massing of forces for a large-scale attack. But Russian forces have managed, through hundreds of very slow, small probes, and an extensive drone-centric interdiction of Ukrainian logistics, managed to crawl forward. Ukraine has yet to develop a counter to these tactics. Both sides continue to take casualties. But Russia is very slowly taking ground with its tactics. Ukraine seems to be just taking casualties.

v/r pete