August 11th, 2026
Politics - Drone may have struck the AN-124
- Hunt for Patriot missiles continues
Combat Operations - Marginal Russian gains
- Missile and drone strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
85 and sunny. Sunny or mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
89 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s to 80s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
78 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
Bild, the German newspaper, reports that the drone that was discovered between two AN-124 aircraft at the airfield in Leipzig on August 4th did in fact hit one of the aircraft but failed to detonate. In addition, DNA traces linked the drone to a firebomb mailed to the same airfield in July 2024. That device did go off and set a freight container on fire.
The hunt for Patriot missiles continues. Former DefMin Fedorov tried to talk up the idea of getting a total of 20 Patriot missiles from various European nations, with the added offer that if he could find them, Germany’s DefMin Pistorius would add another 5.
At the same time, BG Jürgen Schrödl, German Defense Ministry, commented: "We are really reaching our limits here. We also have to ensure our own protection.”
It’s not clear as of today that Fedorov has “found” the 20 Patriots.
Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence (the officer who replaced Kyrilo Budanov when Budanov became Zelenskyy’s chief of staff), is reportedly removing individuals who were appointed by Budanov to leadership positions in the MI Directorate.
At the same time, Oleksandr Polkad, acting director of the Ukrainian Security Service, is working with Ivashchenko to identify personnel who are part of what is being called “the high risk group,” that is, personnel loyal to Budanov.
Budanov and Poklad were apparently never on friendly terms, and rumor has it that Budanov threatened to resign as chief of staff if Zelenskyy officially nominated Polkad as head of the Security Service.
Ground operations
Overall, there has been little change on the ground. Russian forces continue to make small, incremental gains in several areas. East of Kharkiv, in the border area north of the Oskil River, Russian forces are making small advances in several areas at the same time that there have been marginal Russian gains to the north-west on a section of the Ukrainian border that runs roughly east-west. Looked at from a map, with the two Russian forces about 30 miles apart, absent commentary on the very slow, grinding pace of Russian movements, this might be seen as a Russian effort to envelop the Ukrainian forces in the north-east corner of the country (north-east from Kharkiv). But the movement is too slow for any sort of envelopment and if the Russians were to try to close the pincer, the rate of closure would allow any unit inside the potential pocket to withdraw in good order.
Nevertheless, the Russians are slowly - very slowly - taking that corner of the country.
Fighting and infiltrations continue in Kostiantinivka. Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had taken possession of positions held by Russian troops in the north-west corner of the city. Given how these fights have progressed (as in Pokrovsk, Bakhmut and several other cities) the give and take, see-saw nature of these fights are somewhat routine, if deadly, and don’t in and of themselves, show whether either side has any longer term advantage.
Russians appear to be building up forces in the general area of Dobropillia and Druzhivka, the next towns on the list to grind down. Fiber optic drone and glide bomb strikes into both cites are said to be increasing
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
A UAF MiG-29 was lost over Odessa; the pilot safely ejected. The reason for the loss of the aircraft has not been released.
Fire was reported at an oil refinery in Komsomolsk (eastern Russia, 450 miles north-east of Vladivostok).
Fire was reported at a power station in Irkutsk (on Lake Baikal).
Fire was reported at an oil refinery in Orsk (about 800 miles south-east of Moscow).
Another Wildberries was reported to be on fire.
There are no independent reports yet on the extent of damage at these facilities.
During the night of August 9th - August 10th Ukrainian forces struck an oil facility in Nizhnekamsk (500 miles east of Moscow). Russian reports claimed 13 civilians were killed in the attack and 39 others wounded.
Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed they intercepted 450 Ukrainian drones.
Additionally, Ukrainian drones struck the Sibur oil facility, in Tobolsk (about 600 miles north-east of Moscow).
And 1 ship was reported on fire off the coast of Novorossiysk.
Russian Forces
During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched several Iskander ballistic missiles, several Zircon missiles, and 120 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF did not report on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged (see my Thoughts below).
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged. Strike results in Kyiv included damage to a children’s hospital; there were no killed or wounded at the hospital. Also hit in the strikes last night was the Zaporizhzhia Steel Works, and all operations have been temporarily suspended. Seven employees were killed and 21 wounded during the strike.
Civilian casualties include at least 8 killed and 30 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 10 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (north-east of Kyiv).
During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 3 x Banderol cruise missiles, and 126 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 Banderols and 92 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.
Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged.
Civilian casualties include at least 5 killed and 39 wounded.
Of note, Ukrainian reports noted that 19 border towns in northern Ukraine (north-east of Kyiv) were struck with artillery fire.
Local officials reported that, due to Russian drone strikes, there are no working gas stations left in the Opishnyanska Hromada (a town of a bit more than 5,000, located about 30 miles due north of Poltava (an hromada is a town and surrounding land - larger than a village, but not quite a city)).
The Russian government also claimed that Russian missiles had struck the Odessa Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP) as well as 7 substations on the 9th, but this has not been confirmed by other sources.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug10 Aug11
Brent 94.71 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 84.82 87.88
WTI 92.10 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 79.49 82.23
NG 3.97 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.77 2.76
Wheat 8.52 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.35 6.50 6.33
Ruble 85 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 82.63 82.43
Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.86 44.78
Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 81.08 81.87
ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 79.99 84.22
Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 77.91 77.91
Sokol oil spot price has not moved in several days. At the same time, there are 3 sanctioned tankers, listed as headed for India, holding nearly 5 million barrels of oil - possibly Sokol oil, who are holding off of Sri Lanka.
Thoughts
The Ukrainian Air Force has stopped publicly reporting details of Russian missile attacks. This morning the UAF noted that they had brought down 98 of 120 strike drones, but did not give any data on number of cruise or ballistic missiles the Russians had fired or how many had been engaged and brought down.
Press reports noted that “more than a dozen” ballistic missiles had struck in the Kyiv area.
The UAF now reports that they intercepted just 29 of 195 ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine during July. On July 31st the UAF reported that they during July they had had 36 successful ballistic missile engagements out of 126 missiles, a 29% success rate. But these new numbers paint a grimmer picture, with 29 intercepted (vice 36), out of a total of 195, a successful engagement rate of 15%.
Of course, this is tightly bound to the matter of the Patriot missile count. There are only a few missiles that can reliably shoot
August 11th, 2026
Politics - Drone may have struck the AN-124
- Hunt for Patriot missiles continues
Combat Operations - Marginal Russian gains
- Missile and drone strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
85 and sunny. Sunny or mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
89 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s to 80s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
78 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
Bild, the German newspaper, reports that the drone that was discovered between two AN-124 aircraft at the airfield in Leipzig on August 4th did in fact hit one of the aircraft but failed to detonate. In addition, DNA traces linked the drone to a firebomb mailed to the same airfield in July 2024. That device did go off and set a freight container on fire.
The hunt for Patriot missiles continues. Former DefMin Fedorov tried to talk up the idea of getting a total of 20 Patriot missiles from various European nations, with the added offer that if he could find them, Germany’s DefMin Pistorius would add another 5.
At the same time, BG Jürgen Schrödl, German Defense Ministry, commented: "We are really reaching our limits here. We also have to ensure our own protection.”
It’s not clear as of today that Fedorov has “found” the 20 Patriots.
Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukrainian Military Intelligence (the officer who replaced Kyrilo Budanov when Budanov became Zelenskyy’s chief of staff), is reportedly removing individuals who were appointed by Budanov to leadership positions in the MI Directorate.
At the same time, Oleksandr Polkad, acting director of the Ukrainian Security Service, is working with Ivashchenko to identify personnel who are part of what is being called “the high risk group,” that is, personnel loyal to Budanov.
Budanov and Poklad were apparently never on friendly terms, and rumor has it that Budanov threatened to resign as chief of staff if Zelenskyy officially nominated Polkad as head of the Security Service.
Ground operations
Overall, there has been little change on the ground. Russian forces continue to make small, incremental gains in several areas. East of Kharkiv, in the border area north of the Oskil River, Russian forces are making small advances in several areas at the same time that there have been marginal Russian gains to the north-west on a section of the Ukrainian border that runs roughly east-west. Looked at from a map, with the two Russian forces about 30 miles apart, absent commentary on the very slow, grinding pace of Russian movements, this might be seen as a Russian effort to envelop the Ukrainian forces in the north-east corner of the country (north-east from Kharkiv). But the movement is too slow for any sort of envelopment and if the Russians were to try to close the pincer, the rate of closure would allow any unit inside the potential pocket to withdraw in good order.
Nevertheless, the Russians are slowly - very slowly - taking that corner of the country.
Fighting and infiltrations continue in Kostiantinivka. Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had taken possession of positions held by Russian troops in the north-west corner of the city. Given how these fights have progressed (as in Pokrovsk, Bakhmut and several other cities) the give and take, see-saw nature of these fights are somewhat routine, if deadly, and don’t in and of themselves, show whether either side has any longer term advantage.
Russians appear to be building up forces in the general area of Dobropillia and Druzhivka, the next towns on the list to grind down. Fiber optic drone and glide bomb strikes into both cites are said to be increasing
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
A UAF MiG-29 was lost over Odessa; the pilot safely ejected. The reason for the loss of the aircraft has not been released.
Fire was reported at an oil refinery in Komsomolsk (eastern Russia, 450 miles north-east of Vladivostok).
Fire was reported at a power station in Irkutsk (on Lake Baikal).
Fire was reported at an oil refinery in Orsk (about 800 miles south-east of Moscow).
Another Wildberries was reported to be on fire.
There are no independent reports yet on the extent of damage at these facilities.
During the night of August 9th - August 10th Ukrainian forces struck an oil facility in Nizhnekamsk (500 miles east of Moscow). Russian reports claimed 13 civilians were killed in the attack and 39 others wounded.
Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed they intercepted 450 Ukrainian drones.
Additionally, Ukrainian drones struck the Sibur oil facility, in Tobolsk (about 600 miles north-east of Moscow).
And 1 ship was reported on fire off the coast of Novorossiysk.
Russian Forces
During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched several Iskander ballistic missiles, several Zircon missiles, and 120 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF did not report on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged (see my Thoughts below).
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged. Strike results in Kyiv included damage to a children’s hospital; there were no killed or wounded at the hospital. Also hit in the strikes last night was the Zaporizhzhia Steel Works, and all operations have been temporarily suspended. Seven employees were killed and 21 wounded during the strike.
Civilian casualties include at least 8 killed and 30 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 10 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (north-east of Kyiv).
During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 3 x Banderol cruise missiles, and 126 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 Banderols and 92 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.
Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged.
Civilian casualties include at least 5 killed and 39 wounded.
Of note, Ukrainian reports noted that 19 border towns in northern Ukraine (north-east of Kyiv) were struck with artillery fire.
Local officials reported that, due to Russian drone strikes, there are no working gas stations left in the Opishnyanska Hromada (a town of a bit more than 5,000, located about 30 miles due north of Poltava (an hromada is a town and surrounding land - larger than a village, but not quite a city)).
The Russian government also claimed that Russian missiles had struck the Odessa Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP) as well as 7 substations on the 9th, but this has not been confirmed by other sources.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug10 Aug11
Brent 94.71 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 84.82 87.88
WTI 92.10 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 79.49 82.23
NG 3.97 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.77 2.76
Wheat 8.52 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.35 6.50 6.33
Ruble 85 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 82.63 82.43
Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.86 44.78
Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 81.08 81.87
ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 79.99 84.22
Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 77.91 77.91
Sokol oil spot price has not moved in several days. At the same time, there are 3 sanctioned tankers, listed as headed for India, holding nearly 5 million barrels of oil - possibly Sokol oil, who are holding off of Sri Lanka.
Thoughts
The Ukrainian Air Force has stopped publicly reporting details of Russian missile attacks. This morning the UAF noted that they had brought down 98 of 120 strike drones, but did not give any data on number of cruise or ballistic missiles the Russians had fired or how many had been engaged and brought down.
Press reports noted that “more than a dozen” ballistic missiles had struck in the Kyiv area.
The UAF now reports that they intercepted just 29 of 195 ballistic missiles fired at Ukraine during July. On July 31st the UAF reported that they during July they had had 36 successful ballistic missile engagements out of 126 missiles, a 29% success rate. But these new numbers paint a grimmer picture, with 29 intercepted (vice 36), out of a total of 195, a successful engagement rate of 15%.
Of course, this is tightly bound to the matter of the Patriot missile count. There are only a few missiles that can reliably shoot down ballistic missiles. The ones not made by the Russians (or the Chinese copies) are the Patriot, of course, the SM family of missiles, THAAD, and the Aster (French/Italian). There are simply not enough Patriots, and THAAD is even more limited in every sense; only a handful of units and they are all already forward here and there.
The SMs are associated with Aegis and need an Aegis system to work. The nearest systems are in Poland and Romania. Each has 24 x SM-3 missiles. Those are great missiles but can’t defend Kyiv (both about 500 miles from Kyiv). The missile flies that far but defending against a short-range ballistic missile would require a radar much closer to the incoming missile. Any ballistic missile flying 250 - 300 miles won’t get much above 40 miles in altitude. That would mean that it would be visible to a radar at 450 miles out for just a brief period of time at the top of its trajectory.
Aster 30 has an anti-ballistic missile capability, and Ukraine received two full batteries, but the number of missiles is, again, the issue. Ukraine received - reportedly - only 30 x Aster 30s in March of 2024. and there are hints that they are out of missiles.
Ukraine has signed a licensing agreement with France last month to produce the missiles, but the current production cycle for the missile is 40 months - longer than for a Patriot.
Meanwhile, Russian production of Iskander missiles has reached 65 per month, 40 per month for the RM-48U (the rocket fired from the S-400 SAM system used as a surface to surface missile), and 6 per month for the Zircon hypersonic missile; each of these missiles can only be engaged by Patriot missiles.
v/r pete down ballistic missiles. The ones not made by the Russians (or the Chinese copies) are the Patriot, of course, the SM family of missiles, THAAD, and the Aster (French/Italian). There are simply not enough Patriots, and THAAD is even more limited in every sense; only a handful of units and they are all already forward here and there.
The SMs are associated with Aegis and need an Aegis system to work. The nearest systems are in Poland and Romania. Each has 24 x SM-3 missiles. Those are great missiles but can’t defend Kyiv (both about 500 miles from Kyiv). The missile flies that far but defending against a short-range ballistic missile would require a radar much closer to the incoming missile. Any ballistic missile flying 250 - 300 miles won’t get much above 40 miles in altitude. That would mean that it would be visible to a radar at 450 miles out for just a brief period of time at the top of its trajectory.
Aster 30 has an anti-ballistic missile capability, and Ukraine received two full batteries, but the number of missiles is, again, the issue. Ukraine received - reportedly - only 30 x Aster 30s in March of 2024. and there are hints that they are out of missiles.
Ukraine has signed a licensing agreement with France last month to produce the missiles, but the current production cycle for the missile is 40 months - longer than for a Patriot.
Meanwhile, Russian production of Iskander missiles has reached 65 per month, 40 per month for the RM-48U (the rocket fired from the S-400 SAM system used as a surface to surface missile), and 6 per month for the Zircon hypersonic missile; each of these missiles can only be engaged by Patriot missiles.
v/r pete
