May 29th, 2026
Politics - US Condemns attack on Kyiv
- Russian strike drone hits apartment in Romania
Combat Ops - Ukrainian gains in the south, Russian gains in the north
- Russian drone strikes merchant vessel just after leaving Odessa
Weather
Kharkiv
57 with rain showers, gusting over 20. Showers continue Saturday and Sunday, then partly cloudy all next week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds westerly, 5kts.
Melitopol
59 and light rain, gusting to 20. Rain showers likely Saturday and Monday Mostly cloudy through Wednesday. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
55 and light rain, gusting over 35. Rain Saturday and Sunday, then partly cloudy all next week. Daily lows in the 40s through Tuesday, daily highs will be slowly climbing, in the 50s during the weekend and then upper 60s to low 70s next week. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
US Deputy Ambassador Bruce (UN) condemned the recent Russian attack on Kyiv during a meeting of the UN Security Council.
"The latest massive attacks on Kyiv by Russia are a dangerous and barbaric escalation… The United States again calls for an immediate comprehensive ceasefire as a step towards a sustainable negotiated end to the war.”
Shortly after 0100 local time this morning, a Russian strike drone entered Romanian air space and struck an apartment building in the eastern city of Galati. A pair of Romanian Air Force F-16s intercepted the drone but there are conflicting stories as to whether they engaged it and it crashed or they held fire because of concerns about their ordnance hitting houses below the flight path.
The strike drone hit an apartment building, detonated, and injured two people.
The Romanian government summoned the Russian Ambassador following the crash to issue a formal complaint. The Romanian government statement noted:
“We will officially communicate the consequences that this lack of responsibility on the part of the Russian Federation will have for the diplomatic relations between our countries, as well as the next steps at the European level regarding sanctions packages.”
The Supreme Council of National Defense met in Bucharest this morning and declared the Russian consul in Constanta persona non grata and announced that the consulate in that city will be closed.
Ukraine’s Verkovna Rada has ratified the agreement with the EU allowing Kyiv to accept a total of to billion euros ($105 billion) in loans to fund two years of givernemtn spending.
An amendment to yesterday’s report on Gripen fighters: Ukraine will receive 16 x Gripen C/D beginning in early 2027, and will procure 20 (vice 22) x Gripen E/F aircraft, with first delivery in 2030.
This means the UAF will have F-16, Mirage 2000 and the Gripen, as well as legacy aircraft: MiG-29, Su-25, Su-24 and Su-27. Presumably, by the time the Gripen E/F are delivered they will phase out the older, Russian aircraft, simplifying maintenance, supply, training, etc.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Imagery confirmed that Russian forces continue to push across the border to the east and south-east of Sumy City (about 20 miles) and now control a stretch of terrain about 2 miles wide and perhaps 6 or 7 miles long (north to south) near the small towns of Popivka and Vysoke, and have pushed west towards Taratutyne and Novodmytrivka, and probably control parts of Ryasne.
These are small villages - farms and a few houses along a single street, and are, by themselves of no tactical or operational value. This will, however, result in commitment of some Ukrainian assets, stretching logistics lines and presenting Russian drone units more targets to attrit.
North-east of Kharkiv Ukrainian forces pushed into terrain south of Vilcha and it appears that the Ukrainians and Russians are again trading terrain in this region. Ukrainian forces are attacking northward and also appear to be moving forces in the direction of Zybyne (about 6 miles east of Vovchansk) presumably to attack westward along the road and river line, into Vovchansk.
Fighting is also reported along the border north of the Oskil River and Ukrainian forces are claiming they have entered the border town of Odradne.
EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER
Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and east and north-east of Borova, but there were no changes to the front lines. Both sides continue to report increased drone strikes behind the lines.
SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Heavy fighting reported east of Slovyansk but there does not appear to be any change in the front lines.
Russian recon probes continue into Kostiantinivka and Russian and Ukraiain elements remain in a checkerboard-like disposition in eastern and now central and western Kostiantinivka. Who exactly is winning the fight is impossible to say, but both sides are now striking buildings inside the city, slowly reducing parts of the city.
No changes noted in the general Pokrovsk area or north of Pokrovsk, though there was a good deal of reports of troops in contact, with 11 separate towns noted in the Ukrainian General Staff report for the Pokrovsk area.
Further to the south-west imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had retaken the town of Zelenyi Hai (about 20 miles south-west of Pokrovsk) and several small adjacent villages, along the Vovcha River.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Fighting was also reported further south of the Vovcha river and Ukrainian forces have pushed into the Piddubne area, about 7 miles north-east of Vorone.
Fighting was reported west and north-west of Hulyaipole but there were no changes in the line.
Fighting was also again reported in and around Bilohrudyi Island (just south-west of Kherson City), but there were no details on the fighting.
Air and Maritime Operations
The merchant vessel ANT (5,000 ton dry bulk, Vanuatu flag) was struck by a Russian UAV early this morning after departing Odessa. The drone caused a fire on the superstructure, and two crewman were injured. The two crewmen were taken off the ship and moved to a hospital in the Odessa area.
The three tankers struck by Ukrainian surface drones (USVs) early yesterday remain off shore, north-east of Istanbul.
During the night of May 28th-May 29th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 232 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 217 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk and Odessa oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. The impact site of the Iskander ballistics missile has not been reported.
There were at least 2 civilians killed and 27 civilians wounded as a result of these strikes.
RuAF tacair struck at least 1 Ukrainian town.
During the night of May 27th-May 28th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile and 147 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 138 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Odessa, Poltava and Sumy oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. The Kinzhal missile (possibly two) struck targets in Khmelnytskyi. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.
There were at least 3 civilians was killed and 3 civilians wounded as a result of these strikes.
RuAF tacair struck at least 7 Ukrainian towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May28 May29
Brent 94.71 68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 94.89 92.31
WTI 92.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 89.40 88.23
NG 3.97 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.16 3.36
Wheat 8.52 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.22 6.20
Ruble 85 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 70.84 71.10
Hryvnia 28.6 3.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.26 44.27
Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 88.78 86.38
ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 96.25 96.70
Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 93.26 89.94
Thoughts
Ukrainian forces are making some gains on the ground in the south - though Russian forces are still grinding out gains, and both sides continue to take casualties. The Ukrainian gains appear to be, once again, a case of Ukrainian forces seeing weak points in the lines and seams between units and shifting and attacking and the slower Russian forces not responding, and in some cases not seeming to care to respond. These gains are small, and have not reached Russia’s prepared defensive positions, but they are real.
Of course, whether the Kremlin reports it accurately to Putin is a good question and some are suggesting that they are not. We’ll see.
In the meantime, President Zelenskyy may have just stirred up a political hornet’s nest all by himself, giving Ukraine’s Special Operations Command North the honorific “Heroes of the UPA.” The UPA [ Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia - Ukrainian Insurgent Army] was the army of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B - under Stepan Bandera), whose goal was an ethnically and religiously homogenous Ukraine, and which at one time or another fought against nearly every possible side in WWII. They also sided with Nazi Germany and took part in anti-Jewish pogroms. The UPA also fought the Polish underground, and the UPA massacred Poles at Volhynia (50,000 - 60,000) and Eastern Galicia (25,000) as well as smaller killings, with a total estimate of having killed more than 100,000 Poles.
Poland’s President, Karol Nawrocki, has now called for the Polish government to strip Zelenskyy of the Order of the White Eagle, Poland’s highest honor, presented to Zelenskyy by President Duda in 2023.
This will also, as an astute friend notes, infuriate the Russians, and further deepen their paranoia that they are fighting Nazis.
v/r pete
