October 12th, 2026 COLUMBUS DAY
Politics - Trump announces energy ceasefire but no let-up
- Kremlin gives no ground
Combat Ops - Russian energy strikes continue
- Some small changes on the ground
Weather
If the forecasts are accurate, it would appear that the fall rains will begin this week which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.
Reports are already surfacing of units - primarily Russian - reducing ops tempo as the trees have lost their leaves in the last several days, particularly in the northern end of the front.
Kharkiv
70 and clear. Mostly cloudy tomorrow and the rest of the week, showers Wednesday through Friday. Daily lows around 50, high tomorrow in the low 70s, after that highs will also be in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
71 and clear. Mostly cloudy all week, rain showers daily. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the 60s, gradually dropping into the upper 50s by week’s end. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
53 and light rain. Mostly cloudy all week - some partial clearing possible on Wednesday and Thursday, rain showers next weekend. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
On Sunday President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” in the war. There is no indication that either side has complied. As you will recall, Ambassador Witkoff and Mr Kushner met with both Putin and Zelenskyy during the last week of September, and the Ukrainian negotiating team was in Florida on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times is reporting that the the US has contacted other NATO members concerning possible suspension of intelligence sharing and the PURL program (Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List) as part of the pressure to push Ukraine to halt strikes on the Russian energy sector.
Some of the public dialog follows:
President Trump
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
President Zelenskyy
"Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them — 'nyet' [no].”
"The announcement about the ceasefire was news to me. But if the Russians agree to a ceasefire in the energy sector, Ukraine will also agree. If President Trump agreed to this with Putin, please let us know when the ceasefire begins. We are ready and will agree to it.”
“I just spoke with Mark Carney, Alexander Stubb, and Mark Rutte. We discussed the ceasefire on attacks against energy infrastructure announced by President Trump. Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well. We are awaiting details from the American side. Ukraine has always fully supported steps toward de-escalation, protecting lives, and making the decisions necessary to end the war and ensure lasting peace.”
“If Russia does not agree to a truce in the energy sector this winter, we will respond”
This afternoon Kyiv time (0950 EDT), Zelenskyy noted:
“We refrained from targeting Russian energy infrastructure last night in response to a proposal by President Trump”
“Russia continues to target gas facilities and energy infrastructure in Ukraine despite Trump's initiative”
Kremlin Spokesman Peskov
“Russia is ready to halt strikes against Ukraine for the elections day, not 60 days”
Some speculation on who might be the next president if Ukraine were to hold elections right now (the “standard list”):
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, current Ambassador to the UK, retired Commander in Chef of the Armed forces, credited with the successful defense of Ukraine in 2022, perhaps the most trusted Ukrainian. Seen as the most likely winner, right now.
President Zelenskyy - approval ratings have cycled up and down, but they spike whenever he and Trump bang heads.
Kyrylo Budanov: current chief of staff for Zelenskyy, former LtGen, director of military intelligence.
Mykhailo Fedorov, former Minister of Defense, former Minister of Digital Transformation, 35 years old, popular in the younger half of the population. Fedorov has called for elections - which set him at odds with much of the population.
A bit more of the outside chance:
Yevhenii Khmara, current Minister of Defense, career intelligence officer
Andrii Sybiha, Foreign Minister, career diplomat.
Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s President 2014 - 2019, before that Foreign Minister and Minister of Trade and Development
Vitali Klitschko, Mayor of Kyiv since 2014, former heavyweight boxer (World Champion 1999), has generally enjoyed a great deal of popularity in Kyiv, and has had a rocky relationship with Zelenskyy
Ground Operations
The ground war continues, and it appears, as noted above, that the weather is starting to make things more difficult, which will be the case until the ground hardens from the cold.
There are marginal changes in the Sumy area and in the north-east, north of the Oskil River, with some Russian probes reaching 5 or more miles from the border, but these are probes and whether these forces control any terrain at all isn’t clear. Much of the reporting is contradictory, and when sorted out it appears to distill down to continued Russian infiltration and continued Ukrainian counter-attacks, all at the small unit level, smaller than platoon - sized engagements.
North-east of Slovyansk, parts of Operation Vivaldi continues, with fighting continuing in the Zarichne area. Reports are not clear but some suggest that Ukrainian forces have reached the Zherebets River, others that they remain just west of the river. Taking a look at the terrain and the various reports, my take on it is that the Ukrainian forces probed through the woods just west of the Zherebets River, between the towns of Yampil and Zarichne, and have since fallen back, and that there is fighting going on in the woods, in an effort to control the road that runs north-south through the woods, connecting Yampil and Zarichne, a bit less than a mile west of the Zherebets.
The woods in this area have been the scene of very difficult fighting since the war began and very rarely has anyone moved quickly through the woods. This is likely to drag out a while.
Just to the south, the fight for Rai Oleksandrivka continues and Ukrainian forces appear to have the upper hand in that town right now. But, there are also continued infiltrations and the checkerboard nature of the front is, if anything, spreading.
Russian forces continued probes in the Kostiantinivka area and around Dobripillia (west of Kostiantinivka, north of Pokrovsk) and there were some Ukrainian reports suggesting the Russian ops tempo around Dobripillia has increased over the past several days, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.
Further south, Ukrainian forces appear to have pressed south out of Komar along the Mokri Yaly River and reached the north end of Fedorivka.
Further to the west, fighting continues around Orikhiv and Ukrainian forces appear to have regained control just south-east of Orikhiv, pushing into the broken terrain and scrub woods north-east of Novoandylivka, likely using the terrain as cover for the probe. Russian forces remain in the east half of Novoandylivka.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). These attacks can involve from a handful to scores of FPV drones per day into any given village.
Ukrainian Forces
On the 11th Ukrainian forces hit the Samara oil refinery, damaging the remaining (previously undamaged) storage tanks and the Volgograd oil refinery.
On the 10th, Ukrainian forces struck the Yandex data center in Vladimir City (about 100 miles east of Moscow)
On the 10th Ukrainian forces hit the oil loading terminal in Rostov-on-Don.
On the 9th Ukrainian forces struck the Yandex data center in Kaluga (about 100 miles south-west of Moscow), after hitting the Yandex data center in Sasovo (about 175 miles south-east of Moscow) on the 8th. Yandex is similar to Google.
On the 8th Ukrainian forces struck the Barmin Research Institute of Launch Systems, in Dalneye Konstantinovo, about 225 miles east of Moscow (missile and space systems), and the Center for the Elimination of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (weird name - set up in 1993 to destroy old ICBMs as part of the arms reduction agreements), also about 225 miles east of Moscow, produces missile fuel, and the Redkino Research Plant (60 miles north-west of Moscow (fuel for cruise missiles).
On October 8th Ukrainian forces struck the Gazprom Oil Refinery in Salavat, and the Omsk Oil Refinery in Omsk City.
Ukrainian forces also struck a data center in Sasovo, Ryazan Oblast .
During the last 24 hours Ukrainian forces also truck the chemical plant in Redkino (75 miles north-west of Moscow), and a space infrastructure support facility in Nizhny Novgorod (about 180 miles east of Moscow).
Russian Forces
During the period for October 11th-October 12th Russian forces launched at least 121 X strike drones and several Kh-59 cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace. There has been no report on number of drones shot down.
Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Civilain casualties included at least 11 dead and 52 wounded.
During the period for October 10th-October 11th Russian forces launched at least 116 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 94 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Rivne, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There was damage to the Kyiv water supply system and water was temporarily shut off to parts of the city.
Civilian casualties included at least 2 dead and 29 wounded.
During the period for October 9th-October 10th Russian forces launched at least 160 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 117 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There was damage to the Kyiv water supply system and water was temporarily shut off to parts of the city.
At least 5 glide bombs struck Zaporizhzhia city, killing at least 20 and wounding 32.
During the period of October 8th-October 9th Russian forces launched at least 136 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF shot down, or defeated with EW, 114 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Pavlohrad and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets struck included power grid, logistics centers, data centers and road and rail related targets. Ukrenergo reports multiple power outages.
Civilian casualties included at least 2 killed and 11 wounded.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct9 Oct10
Brent 94.71 77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 103.30 107.00
WTI 92.10 73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 91.18 93.77
NG 3.97 3.12 2.64 2.95 3.16 3.15 3.15
Wheat 8.52 6.06 6.35 7.46 6.86 6.82 6.72
Ruble 85 76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 85.24 83.84
Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 44.91 45.06
Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 129.17 118.23
ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 112.78 126.52*
Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 109.75 109.75
* This is not the spot price (normally reported), rather the ESPO Forward price in Shandong, China. ESPO prices routinely - but not always - are Brent or Dubai plus some premium. Brent is up more than $4 since Friday, which would suggest ESPO spot would be up a similar amount, perhaps $117 per barrel.
Thoughts
Whatever understanding that was reached with Putin, and presumably with the Ukrainian negotiating team in Florida on Friday, it does not seem to have been well understood, if at all. The Russian strikes on the power grid continued into this morning and I am sure the Ukrainian strikes this afternoon will retaliate.
I have read some fascinating speculation on the supposed Byzantine plan that Trump is executing but frankly, I don’t think even Robert Ludlum could actually follow all the twists and turns.
Surely, Trump wants a deal on energy. But it isn’t hard to believe he wants to end the war and wants to do something massive to get this “off top dead center.”
That said, perhaps Putin is growing weary, he wants to end it and he wants a victory; there is nothing in his words, his tone or his body language that suggests he will give up. And he has 5,000 nuclear weapons. He has commented several times recently about nuclear weapons.
Someplace out there in his metaphysical reality is a red line and beyond it are tactical nuclear weapons. Did he communicate that to Mr Ratcliffe (DCIA) when he visited several weeks ago, or to Amb. Wiykoff and Mr. Kushner? Putin agreeing that the war needs to end and ‘the war needs to end and I have the means to end it’ would be two massively different positions.
At the time, Operation Vivaldi notwithstanding, this major Ukrainian effort - that lasted the better part of 9 months, and some suggest well more than a year, allowed them to - most favorable estimate - regain about 600 sq km - less than 240 sq miles of terrain. This is a 21st century Somme or Passchendaele, this is the Somme with cell phones and drones.
And energy prices are worse in Europe than the US, and there are NATO countries that are still buying natural gas from Russia - and in fact at an increased rate right now as they struggle to fill storage tanks for winter.
Perhaps Trump may be grasping at straws, but meanwhile, it appears to me that there is no strategy for victory in Europe; they seem to be hoping for a miracle.
v/r pete
PS If you have never read Morison’s “Admiral of Ocean Sea,” a biography of Christopher Columbus, I highly recommend it.
