June 23rd, 2026
Politics - Poland - Ukraine strain continues, Medal returned
Combat Ops - Slow on the ground, but Kostiantinivka is of concern
- Drone wars continue
Weather
Kharkiv
80 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow, partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
86 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
79 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, daily highs around 80. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
The Poland - Ukraine diplomatic discord continues.
Yesterday, President Zelenskyy returned the “Order of the White Eagle” to Poland after Poland’s President Nawrocki called for stripping Zelenskyy of the award.
As you’ll recall, on May 26th Zelenskyy gave Ukraine’s Special Operations Command North the honorific “Heroes of the UPA.” The UPA [ Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia - Ukrainian Insurgent Army] was the army of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN-B - under Stepan Bandera), whose goal was an ethnically and religiously homogenous Ukraine, and which at one time or another fought against nearly every possible side in WWII. At one point the UPA sided with Nazi Germany and took part in anti-Jewish pogroms, and the UPA also fought the Polish underground, and massacred Poles at Volhynia (50,000 - 60,000) and Eastern Galicia (25,000) as well as smaller killings, with a total estimate of having killed more than 100,000 Poles.
Nawrocki, noting that Poland’s "pain threshold" had been exceeded, posted on Friday:
“The Ukrainian Insurgent Army remains above all a formation responsible for cruel crimes against the citizens of the Polish Republic during World War II.”
President Zelenskyy posted:
“We believed that the Order of the White Eagle, awarded in 2023, was meant for the Ukrainian People and our army. That is what was said at the time. Today, I sent the Order back to the President of Poland.”
On Saturday, Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Budanov; Ukraine’s ambassador Bodnar and ForMin Sybiha also said they would return awards from Poland.
Budanov posted:
“Our nations have long-standing relations and different pages of history – both heroic and tragic. However, this should be an occasion for deep reflection, not crude political speculation.”
Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN Andrii Melnyk commented that Ukraine the UN needs to act on the war, that Ukraine’s patience “is not endless.”
“Ukraine stands ready to engage in direct negotiations with Russia to secure a just and lasting peace in accordance with the U.N. Charter, but our patience is not endless.”
“If the Security Council would further choose a wait-and-see approach, I cannot exclude that Ukraine may recalibrate and modify its offer. Ceasefire along the de facto front line is already a great compromise.”
Ground Operations
Along most of the line there is, as expected, little change. In several spots there are small Russian gains: north of Hulyiapole and west of Vovchansk (north of Kharkiv). Elsewhere, east of Vovchansk, Russian forces straightened the line and “filled in” a small, would-be salient.
But there are two places on the line that are of note:
Neasr Lyman, Russian forces have made gains on the ground along the north-east edge of the city, and appear to have probed into the center of the city and now hold parts of Lyman. This is of note in that taking Lyman would allow Russian forces to directly pressure Slovyansk with artillery while beginning probes and infiltrating into the city.
At the same time, Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka and in the last several days appear to have pushed into the east and north-east sides of the city and Russian forces appear to have taken control of perhaps 1/2 to 2/3rds of the city. Against, depending on which reporting you follow, Russian forces occupy two large “pincers,” one on the west side, extending north-west about 3 miles from the T0504 roadway, and one on the east that extends perhaps 4 miles north-west from the same roadway. In between the two pincers is a salient that is not quite 2 miles wide and 3 miles long, which represents Ukrainian forces holding the center of the city.
Some force lay-downs suggest that Ukrainian control actually extends another 3 miles to the south-east, to the east edge of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, but most of the maps of the front line place this area either in Russian control or firmly in a no man’s land, that is, as contested terrain, rather than under Ukrainian control.
Air and Maritime Operations
President Putin commented on the various Ukrainian drone attacks:
"First and foremost, the task of eliminating these threats lies with the Ministry of Defence and other security agencies. The government of the Russian Federation must also take additional measures to minimise, to reduce to zero, the consequences of such actions."
Ukrainian drones struck facilities in Kerch, Mariupol, and north-west Crimea, at least on bridge was struck in Crimea, and power outages were reported in north-west Crimea and in Mariupol.
Ukrainian General Staff reporting notes the June 21st strike on the Dubna Space Communications Center (about 65 miles north of Moscow), and imagery yesterday confirmed a fire at the facility, but there did not appear to be an interruption in broadcasts or telephone communications.
The Ukrainian drone strike effort has, per Meduza (a Russian opposition media company) now extended the medium range strike range out to the 15 - 20 mile range beyond the lines. Note that the bulk of the thousands of drones each side launches each day are looking for targets within just a few miles of launch point and those constitute the overwhelming bulk of all drones.
Of interest, A Russian blogger claims that the recent Ukrainian strike on the facility in Voronezh (about 300 miles south-south-east of Moscow) that makes components for several Russian missile systems, may have included a Storm Shadow missile (UK manufactured, 300 NM range) and perhaps an ERAM (Extended Range Attack Munition, US, 280NM)
During the night of June 22nd-June 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (type know) and 135 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 118 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts; the ballistic missile struck in Dnipro city.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.
There was at least 1 civilian killed and 3 wounded in these attacks..
RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.
On the 21st Russian drones struck the MV Victress (Panamanian flag (also reported as UK flag), 2,500 deadweight tons), en route Romania from Turkey; Victress is a dry cargo ship and was in the western Black Sea when struck. One crewman, from Egypt, was killed int the attack.
Ukrainian forces struck a ferry in the Kerch Strait, and oil tanks in Kerch port; partial blackouts reported in Crimea. Ukrainian drones were also reported in the Moscow area early on the 22nd, and at least one reportedly struck a “space communications center” in Dubna (Moscow area); and while there is a significant fire, the damage to the comms facility has not been confirmed. A blackout was reported in parts of Crimea earlier today.
During the night of June 21st-June 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 88 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 79 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; Russians strike bridge in Zaporizhzhia city; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
There was at least 1 civilian killed and 11 wounded in these attacks.
RuAF tacair struck at least 2 Ukrainian towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun22 Jun23
Brent 94.71 106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 79.18 77.25
WTI 92.10 103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 75.31 73.29
NG 3.97 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.31 3.25
Wheat 8.52 6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.08 6.05
Ruble 85 78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 73.84 74.55
Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.97 44.85
Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 66.58 64.42
ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 78.28 75.97
Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 73.43 71.33
Thoughts
Concerning the situation on the ground, while the actual line of control remains vague, the trend line is not: Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Kostiantinivka (and to a lesser extent Lyman) and Ukrainian forces inside the the first city in particular are being forced back. Video reports from soldiers and reporters cornered in the city sound dire, though it is likely the Ukrainian forces will hold longer than the tone of these reports. But the Russian squeeze of this de facto salient will continue and Ukrainian forces appear to lack the assets - infantry - to stop the Russian squeeze.
How long it might take Russian forces to take Kostiantinivka is anyone’s guess, it could be 1 or 2 months, it could be another 6 or 8. But short of a miracle, the city will fall.
Meanwhile, the drone wars continue. Press reporting has focused on the Ukrainian successes in Crimea and in particular around Moscow. But, two points are worth remembering: first, while the strikes are dramatic, Russian refinery excess capacity remains and the Russian oil industry has mostly adjusted to these strikes.
Second, while these strikes continue, so do Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid, which is less robust than the Russian oil industry.
Nor does there appear to be any indication at all that the leadership or the population of either country wishes to give in, in the face of these attacks. If anything, they are growing more angry.
v/r pete
