July 24th, 2026    

Politics - Rubio calls for “New Ideas”

- Russian attacks: Ukrainian maritime trade, grain

Combat Ops - Minor Russian gains on ground

- Missile and drone strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

SecState Rubio called for an end to the war, saying that “new ideas” must be brought into the discussion. 

“New ideas” are needed, what has already been proposed were “not acceptable to Ukraine at the time, and I don’t think it’d be acceptable to them [Russia] either; in fact, probably less acceptable to them. If, when peace comes, it’ll be because of some new idea and some new concepts, and we’re prepared to offer some of those in the right setting and form if the opportunity presents itself and the conditions are right. We’re prepared to play that role in a positive way.”” 

“We want a peace deal. We want the war to end. We’re prepared to play whatever positive role we can to end the war, and that in order to end this war will require something that both Russia and Ukraine can agree to. That’s not going to happen at a press conference. That’s not going to happen in one meeting here in the Philippines. That’s going to require a lot of work. We invested in the past in it. It was unsuccessful, at least unfruitful at the time. If conditions and factors have changed to make that possible, we’re ready to go."

Rubio added that for President Trump, the most important thing is for people to stop dying, for people to stop being killed, for Ukraine to finally be able to live in peace.

Following a series of strikes on ships Ukrainian ports over the past week, ship traffic has slowed to zero in Odessa, with reportedly no ships entering port in the last 24 hours. In the last month Russian strikes have hit 28 merchant ships and killed 21.

As reported last week, about 1/3 of the grain loading capacity in Odessa has been damaged and is currently inoperative. Odessa has a nominal 6 million tons per month to about 4 million tons per month (as of July 14th).

The last grain export from Odessa was on July 12th - 20,000 tons of corn, the last grain export from Chornomorsk was on July 19th (65,000 tons of corn, and nothing from Pivdennyi in more than a week.

Ground Operations

Overall, there are minor change on the ground, as recon probes - infiltrations continue along much of the line, the bulk of it by Russian forces. There are three areas of interest:

Russian forces continue to expand the area of infiltration in and around Kostiantinivka, pushing further north-west into the city, and have now conducted infiltrations into essentially every area of the city. This does not mean they control the city, far from it. It would appear that the Russians control the city on the “south” side of the T0504 roadway (the road runs roughly south-west — north-east), as well as portions of both the east and west side of the city, but more than half of the city is still contested. But, the Russians have now managed to put small elements (anywhere from 5 to 20 troops on average) in each section of the city and leave them there for short periods of time, up to several days (though some longer). They have also managed to infiltrate into the towns on either side of Kostiantinivka and have reportedly conducted patrols up to the south-east edge of Druzhkivka.

To the west, in the Pokrovsk area, Russian forces continue to push in several salients to the north-west (toward Kucheriv Yar and Dobropillia, and Ukrainian reporting suggests some hard fighting but it is impossible to quantify. There are at least 3 Russian motorized rifle brigades and 1 Russian Marine regiment in the area, but at least another 6 brigades are less than 10 miles behind the front - based on Ukrainian maps, and that only relates where the brigade HQ is located. Where all those battalions are and how deployed is unknown.

Further to the south, in the terrain about 10 - 15 miles north-north-east of Hulyaipole, Ukrainian forces continue to both clear small villages they rolled over in March, and there is some indication that they have made some small gains along the front lines between roughly Maliivka and Novomykolaivka.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out); this involves thousands of FPV drones per day by both sides.

A Ukrainian Army spokesman claims that Russian forces are now using the Rassvet constellation for command and control of drone strikes.

Rassvet is a Russian analog to Starlink, a planned initial constellation of 288 low earth orbit satellites, reportedly optimized for 5G use. The plan is to begin launch of the operational (vice test) satellites in 2026 (38 are believed on orbit right now, including 6 test satellites), 250 satellites in 2027, with an initial steady pace of at least 150 satellites per year after that, rising to 700 in 2030, and 900 by 3025.

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of July 23rd - July 24th Ukrainian missiles struck the Aviatek facility in Kirov (about 500 miles north-east of Moscow), which makes components for “Tor” surface-to-air missiles, as well as comments for the Kh-101 and Kh-59 missiles. Pictures showed a large plume of smoke from the facility but the extent of damage is not yet known.

Overall, Russian forces claimed to have brought down 571 drones last night but there is no count of how many got through.

Local reporting noted 6 civilians killed and 32 wounded in Kirov.

Drones also struck a logistics center in St Petersburg; news coverage showed a large fire and a burning warehouse.

Strikes continued on Crimea, and on the 23rd Ukrainian missiles hit the electrical substations in Feodosia, Prymorske, Haspara, Hurzuf, as well as the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant.

Strikes continued on barge and ship traffic on the Sea of Azov and in the eastern Black Sea, and Ukrainian sources now claim to have hit 196 ships since early July.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 23rd-July 24th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 3 x ballistic missile (not identified), 5 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 180 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile,  4 cruise missiles and 160 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy oblast. The 2 ballistic missiles impacted in Kyiv - at the weapons demonstration. Two droens also hit 2 cargo ships pier side in Mykolaiv. 

Civilian casualties include at least 14 dead and 38 injured, in addition to the below:

The two ballistic missiles that were not intercepted struck an Army training facility where there was an ongoing weapons demonstration for the Ukrainian Defense Department. Casualties so far are “at least 10 killed and 100 wounded.”

The event had been advertised on line, with online registration and schedules. 

During the night of July 22nd-July 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 5 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 168 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 2 cruise missiles and 154 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, and  Zaporizhzhia oblast. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Odessa. Targets struck included power and transportation infrastructure targets.

Civilian casualties include at least 6 dead and 46 injured.

Economic Reporting

       Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9        Jul23 Jul24

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 98.77 97.72

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 90.76 89.84

NG       3.97      2.73        2.79        3.14        3.12        2.95        2.95

Wheat     8.52          5.79 6.14         5.82 6.06          7.07 6.74

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 78.45 77.89

Hryvnia 28.6        43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.81 44.82

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 80.73 84.26

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 93.07 87.98

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 85.95 86.47

Thoughts

Another interesting escalation with the strikes on merchant shipping out of the major Ukrainian commercial ports (Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi). Russia has, for the most part, let grain shipments leave since the Black Sea Grain Initiative went not effect in July 2022. That effort ended in 2023, but the Russian response since then has, for the most part, been to allow grain shipments to continue - though not always. 

It is of note that the price of wheat has not spiked. Prices moved briefly above $7 per bushel (first time since 2023) but have come back down a bit. But Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have both suspended operations from Ukrainian ports. 

Also worth a note is the missile strike on the weapons show in Kyiv - with the “targeting” provided to Russian forces online… OpSec, OpSec, OpSec…

v/r pete    

 July 23rd, 2026    

Politics - Rubio, Lavrov meet

- Protests continue over Cabinet Firings

- Zelenskyy offers Fedorov new job, turned down

Combat Ops - Some Russian ground gains

- Missile and drone strikes continue

 

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

68 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

SecSstate Rubio met with Russian ForMin Lavrov in Manila earlier today. 

Rubio posted:

“Met today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the ASEAN Ministerial,We discussed the U.S.–Russia relationship and the need to end the Russia–Ukraine war.”

“We had a good conversation, a frank conversation,

“The United States, the president’s been clear that ... we are prepared to play a constructive role in bringing about an end to a senseless war, and we’re ready to do that.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated:

“…during the discussion of the Ukrainian issue, Sergey Lavrov briefed his American counterpart on the real state of affairs along the line of contact and emphasized the unacceptability of further armament of the Kyiv regime and the generally destabilizing policies of European countries, which continue to seek a ‘strategic defeat’ for Russia.”… the ForMin "reaffirmed Russia’s readiness for a political and diplomatic resolution of the conflict,” … Moscow remained committed to the “proposals put forward by the American side at the meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, to which the Russian leader agreed.”

Also in attendance were:

Russian Deputy ForMin Rudenko; 

Dir. Foreign Policy Planning Department Drobinin

President’s Permanent Rep to ASEAN Zagaynov,

For the US UnderSecState Political Affairs Hooker 

Special Presidential Envoy Gore

Protests of the dismissal of the cabinet, and in particular of MinDef Fedorov continued for the 7th day, with protests reported in Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kremenchug, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava, Ternopil, and Vinnytsia. 

While the protests continued, videos show ordered, peaceful protests.

President Zelenskyy appointed Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) Deputy, MGEN Ihor Skybyuk as the new Chief of the UGS, replacing MG Hnatov. Skybyuk was the commander of Airborne Forces prior to being named the Deputy UGS. No follow-on assignment has yet been mentioned for Hnatov.

Former MinDef Fedorov thanked Gen Syrskyi for his defense of the nation. At the same time, he noted that the country needed to move faster:

"We need to move even faster and write new chapters, correcting all previous mistakes.” 

Fedorov also identified what he considered to be the main tasks facing the new leadership:

• Preserving the lives of Ukrainian military personnel
• Robotization of the front
• Carrying out asymmetric strikes on Russia
• Exhausting the Russian economy

President Zelenskyy commented on the tasks facing Gen Drapatyi (New Armed Forces CINC) and acting MinDef Khmara: 

"Undoubtedly, both Drapatyi and Khmara will have to fulfill the main task facing us today after a long and exhausting war for everyone. The tasks that I set for both [Mykhailo] Fedorov and [Oleksandr] Syrskyi (because you can't separate them, nor can we say that one is to blame and the other is not) were the issue of 'closing the skies', the issue of how military enlistment offices are run and the issue of giving mobilization a more human face, if I can put it that way. Until the war ends, all of this will have to be done together, in unity. Unfortunately, that unity did not exist before."

President Zelenskyy yesterday offered former MinDef Fedorov the post of Deputy PM for Military Innovation.

"Mykhailo is on the team. I has offered him several positions, without going into the details of all our meetings: the latest position was deputy prime minister for military innovation, and this is very important, because any innovations must be coordinated with the leadership of the Ministry of Defence, with military command, with the commander-in-chief of our army and with the president. All of this can be done, and must be done every day.”

Fedorov already turned down the offer. Fedorov was Deputy PM for Digital Transformation (2019 - 2025) and Innovation (2023-2025) prior to being named MinDef.

Fedorov noted that it would be impossible to implement his strategy to stop Russia without the real powers held only by the Ministry of Defence.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) transferred $690 million to Ukraine, the 2nd tranche of a 4 year, $2.2 billion loan.

President Zelenskyy commented on the next six months:

"We have two paths ahead of us this winter. The first path is that we find a way to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia and end this war. This is the priority. That's what I'm focused on. We understand who we're dealing with. Which means that the alternative, which is always sought not by Ukraine but by Russia, is an escalation of the war and an increase in mobilization.

I have received a broad intelligence briefing, and we can see that there are people around Putin who want to end the war, who can see the economic collapse and the logistical collapse. But there are military figures who want to see the war escalate and mobilization be stepped up. That's what they want, they want to kill us. So we need to prepare a plan for getting through the winter."

Ground Operations 

There are again, some marginal changes, mainly Russian gains, along the lines from the Lyman area (just north-east of Slovyansk) to the area west of Hulyaipole. 

There are several exceptions of note: Russian forces have clearly made gains (confirmed by Ukrainian military) at several points in a line about 12 miles long,  roughly north of Pokrovsk, beginning just north of Hryshyne (which is west of Pokrovsk) and including 7 villages and 4 salients, to the area of  Kucheriv Yar, about 11-12 miles north-east of Pokrovsk. It isn’t clear how many additional forces the Russians are pushing into these gains, that should become clear in the next week or two, but obviously, Ukrainian forces need to stop these gains. That said, the Russians have routinely made these sort of gains and then been slow to reinforce and the gains are often marginalized; I’ll keep my eye on these areas.

In, and in the area immediately around ,Kostiantinivka Russian forces continue to infiltrate to the north-west into the northern end of the city, even as Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in the city center, further expanding the “checkerboard” disposition of forces in the city. There are a good many differences in the various reports on the actual front line but all show a creeping expansion of the Russian infiltration areas, though there remains no way to define a “front line” in this area.

Elsewhere, in some of the areas where there is less activity - north of Sumy City, east of Sumy City along the border, and along the border north of the Oskil River, it appears that Russian forces continue to slowly harden their hold on these areas. If - IF - the Russians stick with SOP, there would be engineering units moving in and improving defensive positions. But reporting on these engineering units is lacking. It should also be noted that the prepared Russian defensive lines have, to date, proven very difficult to breach.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out), of which there is very little reporting.

Ukrainian Forces

The Ukrainian counter logistics effort in Crimea continues, with power outages again noted yesterday across Crimea. 

Ukraine is getting excellent press coverage of the strikes on the Wildberries warehouses, though there is reasoned commentary that sees it as a diversion, and that they would be better served continuing to attack oil industry targets.

An oil pumping station in Bashkiria (about 550 miles east-south-east of Moscow) was hit yesterday and photographs showed a fire at the facility but there is no independent assessment of damage.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 22nd-July 23rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 5 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 168 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 2 cruise missiles and 154 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, and  Zaporizhzhia oblast. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Odessa.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 19 injured.

During the night of July 21st-July 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 3 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 216 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 cruise missiles and 204 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, and  Zaporizhzhia oblast. Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Sumy oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 19 injured.

Economic Reporting

       Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9        Jul22 Jul23

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 93.96 98.77

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 86.76 90.76

NG       3.97      2.73        2.79        3.14 m     3.12        2.92        2.95

Wheat     8.52         5.79        6.14        5.82         6.06 7.02 7.07

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 78.52 78.45

Hryvnia 28.6        43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.81 44.81

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 73.12 80.73

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 92.01 93.07

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 85.02 85.95

Thoughts

It is worth noting that, while the protests are peaceful, there are protests. Put in the context of nearly any other country on earth, the idea of protests because of the firing of the Minister of Defense seems ludicrous. 

But Fedorov was very popular before the war even started, is widely credited with modernizing the army, and his dismissal is viewed by many as something much darker. 

Fedorov was responsible - before he was MinDef - of modernizing paperwork across much of the Ukrainian government, famously allowing you to file for standard things like drivers license renewals, and file taxes, on your cell phone (among a long list of achievements).

When he arrived in the Defense Ministry he began an earnest, aggressive effort to modernize and make transparent all contracting in the Ministry. Now consider that in 2021 Ukraine’s defense budget was just short of $7 billion, in a country with a GDP of $160 billion. In 2026, with a population reduced by 25%, and a GDP that exists almost completely of EU grants, the defense budget will be $100 billion.

And Fedorov was trying to make all that spending transparent to the average Ukrainian citizen, readily available on a laptop or cell phone, while making the “Main Directorate for State Quality Assurance” - 1,000 people, most of whom are Army LtCols and Cols, into a civilian agency. The Army was not pleased.

There are, it seems, a great many Ukrainians who believe that there are too many people in the bureaucracy in Kyiv who could not risk the aggressive reform of procurement and defense spending that Fedorov was trying to usher in.

It is worth noting that during the summer of 2025 an effort was made to bring the anti-corruption offices in the government more closely under Presidential control, and this too resulted in protests that resulted in overturning the proposed changes. It remains to be seen if there will be any reversal of course, but the dismissal of nearly every minister will make a reversal that much more difficult than last year’s course correction. 

v/r pete