September 30th, 2026

Politics - Russian Drone near Polish border; ROE Change

- 3 more F-16s

- Nuclear rhetoric

Combat Ops - Marginal changes on ground

- Strikes continue, ballistic missiles strike Kyiv

Weather

Kharkiv

59 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow, partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

58 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tomorrow, then mostly sunny through the weekend. Tomorrow low int he 50s, then daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds from the north-east, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

56 and clear. Partly cloudy tomorrow and through the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

On the 28th a Russian strike drone struck a truck in a parking lot in the Yahodyn area, about a mile from the Ukraine - Poland border. Yahodyn is located on the E373 roadway, just east of the border.

Following the attack, Poland’s DepDefMin Tomczyk stated that Poland will change the ROE (Rules of Engagement) to allow PAF fighters to use radar to obtain a positive ID, vice visual ID, in order to engage a target.

President Zelenskyy announced an agreement with Belgium that would mean the transfer of 3 more F-16s to Ukraine by the end of the year.

It should be noted that in the past transfers have not always gone as smoothly as the first announcements, and that in some cases aircraft ownership was transferred but the aircraft were not operational.

In the wake of a British docu-drama and a recent news article which both suggested NATO forces might attack Kaliningrad, the Russian Embassy in London commented that: 

“Any British or NATO military action against Russian territory would be met with a response using all means at Russia’s disposal, including nuclear weapons.”

“Russia has repeatedly made clear that it neither seeks confrontation with NATO and Europe nor intends to attack them. But should anyone choose to unleash such a conflict, they must be under no illusion that Russia will respond accordingly.”

In addition, the Russian Embassy in Brussels posted on FaceBook cockering a:

“…sharp escalation in the rhetoric of Western military-political circles, especially on NATO’s eastern flank…” and suggested that Western Europe was “deliberately increasing the degree of confrontation…statements about the possession of NATO capabilities to strike military targets in the Kaliningrad region … organizing new ‘aggressive’ exercises at Russian borders.”

Ground operations

Russian forces continue recon probes and infiltrations along much of the front lines, but there were no confirmed significant changes in the line in the last 24 hours.

East of Slovyansk, fighting is taking place just outside Mykolaivka and Rai Oleksandrivka, with Russian forces holding the woods and Ukrainian forces operating in the field just outside of (just south of) the woods. Fighting in and on the edges of woods has been a problem since the beginning of the war, with both sides having, at times, great success in using the woods as safe havens and also taking substantial numbers of casualties in trying to clear enemy forces out of the woods. Success has usually been a function of adequate numbers of infantry and the use of heavy artillery. The woods have usually become difficult places to fully utilize FPV drones.

North-east of Kostiantinivka, there is renewed fighting in the area immediately south and south-west of Chasiv Yar, as Ukrainian forces have infiltrated into the town of Mykolaivka (a town distinct from the one referenced above) and then into Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian elements have remained dug in, in the woods just to the south of Chasiv Yar, since the summer of 2024, when the city itself was taken by the Russians. For the most part, the Russians have not tried to dig the Ukrainians out of those woods.

Fighting is taking place just south-west of Druzhivka, with blogger reports suggesting some small Ukrainian gains in this area, but this has not been confirmed.

Ukrainian forces were confirmed to have pushed out of the south-east corner of Orikhiv and back into the north-west end of Mala Tokmachka. This is a small but important gain in that it provides a little security for Orikhiv, a city Ukraine needs to hold to provide for stability of the current line across the south. Russian infiltrations continue but for now the Ukrainian forces have regained a little bit of a margin. To a certainty, Russian forces will re-attack towards Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Russian forces have added live video capability to the jet powered strike drones in order to improve strike accuracy (and provide a certain level of strike assessment), and the strike drones electronic counter-measures now allows a degree of “jamming avoidance” while en route a target.

Ukrainian intelligence also reports that Russian forces are fitting Iskander ballistic missiles with a lighter warhead that will increase the weapon’s range from 330 nm to 420 nm.

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian missile and drone strikes continue and during the last several days. There were no confirmed damage assessments of the strikes, however. 

Russian Forces

During the period of September 29th-September 30th Russian forces launched at least 16 x ballistic missiles (mix of Iskander and Zircon ballistic missiles), and 285 x strike drones into Ukraine airspace, last night and today; the missiles were directed at Kyiv. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 5 ballistic missiles and 254 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr oblasts. 

Strikes continued to target energy and port infrastructure, including one merchant ship, Palau flagged. A power blackout was reported in pats of Kyiv oblast.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 18 wounded.

During September 28th-September 29th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 x Zircon missiles and 152 x strike drones into Ukraine airspace, last night and early this morning, followed by an additional 124 strike drones this afternoon. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 2 Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 Zircon missiles and 106 drones during the first wave of strikes and 86 strike drones in the second wave.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Strikes continued to target energy and port infrastructure, including one merchant ship, Palau flagged. A power blackout was reported in Vinnytsia oblast.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 22 wounded.

The RuAF struck at least 17 towns with at least 171 glide bombs.

Russian forces have begun using strike drones on high voltage power poles, as well as steel bridges with a 40kg (88lb) warhead designed specifically to be used against power lines.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Sep4 Sep8 Sep29 Spe30

Brent      94.71   93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19 103.10 103.70

WTI     92.10   90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28 90.04 91.41

NG       3.97      3.14          3.12   2.64 2.95          2.95 3.02 3.01

Wheat     8.52           5.82   6.06   6.35   7.45   7.46 6.92 6.77

Ruble     85         73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21 83.97 83.41

Hryvnia 28.6 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63 44.76 44.70

Urals 91.66 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44 110.94 110.40

ESPO 94.52 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44 110.28 107.59

Sokol 99.31 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09 106.56 104.24

Thoughts

No comments today

v/r pete 

 September 29th, 2026

Politics - Putin increases size of Russian forces

- Arson in Estonia: Russian SVR

Combat Ops - Some more gains in Operation Vivaldi

- Other gains marginal

- Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

55 and clear. Partly cloudy to sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and clear, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny on Wednesday, rain showers possible Wednesday early evening, then partly cloudy to clear into the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds from the north-east, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

65 and clear. Sunny tomorrow, sunny on Thursday, then partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Putin singed off on an increase in Russian uniformed forces, adding 15,500 personnel, increasing Russian forces by 47,860 so far this year; this is the 4th increase this year.

This raises the total authorized strength to 2,441, 630, of which 1,550,500 are authorized uniformed personnel. Earlier additions included 137,000 personnel in August 2022, 169,400 in December 2023, and 180,000 in September 2024.

This total includes 50,000 in the Strategic Rocket Forces, 165,000 in the Aerospace Forces, 140,000 in the Navy, about 500,000 in the regular Army (nominally), 60,000 in Airborne units, and 29,000 in railway and logistics troops, and a small SOF force of several thousand, and 180,000 faces designated as support staff.

There are 710,000 Russian uniformed personnel in Ukraine in or direct support in adjacent Russian terrain.

Ukrainian forces are between 700,000 and 1 million - they do not release the data.

The Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has concluded that the fire at the Milrem Robotics factory in Tallinn, during the night off August 14th-15 was arson set by special service personnel of the Russian SVR.

Ground Operations 

Ukrainian forces continue to provide details on Operations Vivaldi, the Ukrainian army counter-offensive north and north-east of Lyman. Overall, the three phases of the operation have led to retaking some 68 square miles (176 square kilometers) of terrain and in the latest phase have led to the retaking of the town of Nove, which was a logistics hub for Russian army operations north of Lyman. 

This now squeezes the Russian salient west of the Zherebets river and places Ukrainian forces (in Nove) 4 miles west of that river.

It’s worth noting that the operation is considered to be part of the overall Ukrainian offensive that began in early February, timed to begin shortly after Russian forces lost access to Starlink terminals and the resultant superior command and control.

The particular operation in the Lyman area began at the end of May with a series of attacks south-east of Borova (on the northern flank of the Russian salient), which lead to the gradual erosion of Russian positions around Ridkodub (a tiny village on the north-west end of the salient) which was retaken in early June, then appears to have been retaken by Russian forces, and then was retaken in late August or early September by Ukrainian forces. Fighting has been going on just to the north and west of Nove since June, with a renewed push to retake the village (population of less than 900 before the war) in August. 

What has captured interest here is the use of robotics to assist the Ukrainian attack, to include the use of various systems (to include automated BTR-80s) to lay mines, delver supplies to forward elements, and simply to roll forward and detonate near Russian hard-points. But that activity is really a subset of very hard combat arms work in this area.

Elsewhere, ground operations, and Russian infiltrations continue but there were marginal changes to the lines across the rest of the front.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian missile and drone strikes continue and during the last several days. There were no confirmed damage assessments of the strikes, however. 

Russian Forces

During September 28th-September 29th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 6 x Zircon missiles and 152 x strike drones into Ukraine airspace, last night and early this morning, followed by an additional 112 strike drones this afternoon. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 2 Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 Zircon missiles and 106 drones during the first wave of strikes and 95 strike drones in the second wave.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Strikes continued to target energy and port infrastructure. A power blackout reported in Vinnytsia oblast.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 22 wounded.

The RuAF struck at least 17 towns with at least 171 glide bombs.

Russian strikes continued over the weekend, and were continuing through today as I wrote this summary, with more than 265 drones and some missiles launched into Ukrainian airspace since last night

Strikes were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, and civilian casualties included at least 4 killed 99 wounded.

Of note, the Russian strikes on the 27th were - again - strung out through most of the day, with the first strike / air raid siren sounding in Kyiv at 2235 the previous night (on the 26th) and lasting past midnight and strikes following in 4 different period through the day, the all clear being given at 56 minutes past midnight on the 28th; the longest period of no air warning was just 2 hours and 36 minutes long. Effectively, this kept the entire city in shelters and on edge all night and day and kept air defenses forces up, and emergency crews up for nearly 30 hours.

During the week from September 20th through 27th, Russian forces 2,200 long-range strike drones, 38 missiles (predominantly ballistic missiles), and 1650 glide bombs.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Sep4 Sep8 Sep28 Sep29

Brent      94.71   93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19 106.70 103.10

WTI     92.10   90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28 94.30 90.04

NG       3.97      3.14          3.12   2.64  2.95   2.95 3.08 3.02

Wheat     8.52           5.82   6.06   6.35   7.45   7.46 6.94 6.92

Ruble     85         73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21 84.41 83.97

Hryvnia 28.6 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63 44.92 44.76

Urals 91.66 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44 110.54 110.94

ESPO 94.52 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44 124.11 110.28

Sokol 99.31 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09 105.83 106.56

Thoughts

The slow expansion of the Russian army continues. Meanwhile the Ukrainian army, actually bigger than the Russian army, appears to be having trouble reaching and maintaining the targeted 800,000 man force. As it stands, the two forces inside Ukraine are, on paper, of similar size. The Russian force has a larger ground force ratio (about 325,000 - 350,000 combat arms was the last SWAG I saw, with the Ukrainian ground force around 220,000 - 240,000 (another SWAG). Some estimates place the Russian number above 400,000 and the Ukrainian number at 300,000, but from what I have read, both those numbers are unlikely.

As for the Ukrainian gains, I think it’s of significance that the actions detailed in Operation Vivaldi have been ongoing as part of the sustained Ukrainian counter-offensive, not short duration operations. It’s also been noted that the Ukrainian forces kept the overall gist of the plan out of the public eye for two months, an excellent piece of operational security (OPSEC).

One interesting data point is that in the several weeks of fighting Ukrainian forces note that they inflicted on the order of 3,000 total Russian casualties (KIA and WIA) in the operations around Lyman during Phase 2 and 3 of Operation Vivaldi. This strikes me as credible reporting, vice the fantastical data points that sometimes trickle out, with claims running orders of magnitude higher.

Also worth noting (since he agrees with me…) that Finnish analyst Emil Kastehelmi, who works for the Finnish Blackbird Group, analyzing commercial imagery and open source material, cautions that the recent announcements reflect a series of operations that mostly reflect gains from February and March and that the Ukrainian government has only chosen to announce them now. A number of the gains announced several weeks ago in the south-east, were only announced after they had finished a very slow and painful clearing of small, dug-in Russian elements. The towns had been retaken in March, but clearing wasn’t complete until the end of August.

v/r pete