Crisis Ahead
May 17th, 2026
History repeats itself… Heaven alone knows who first said that - I’d wager the Greek historian Herodotus, but there are enough examples to satisfy anyone who wants to look. Of course, technology changes things, but the essence, the patterns through the centuries, are remarkably similar.
A number of years ago William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a book on the very subject - “The Fourth Turning,” identifying a four-generation cycle that can be seen to repeat itself at least as far back as the 1400. There is, as with any such a discussion, room to argue, but the key point is that there is a 4-phase cycle, each lasting roughly 20 years, though some are shorter, some longer. The first involves emerging from a crisis, a more unified country, the belief in a greater future and the restoration of the society’s culture, the second sees this unity start to shift to an increased inward look, the third generation follows with an unraveling and a rise of collective guilt, and the 4th generation is one of crisis.
Following the crisis - assuming the society survives - the country returns to the first generation and the cycle begins again.
As a general rule the crises peak in the last few years of the 4th generation. The last US crisis phase was the period from the late 1920s until the end of WWII, followed by a new cycle. We are now approaching the end of the 4th phase of that post-war cycle. Some folks have recently done a good deal of computer modeling on this concept and the models suggest that the peak crisis years are just in front of us: 2027 - 2028.
What might his mean?
Before trying to offer an answer to that question, the modeling suggests that there are two major versions of the crisis; the first is an internal social-economic crisis, the second is an external political crisis. Said differently: we are now facing the very real possibility of a civil war or a foreign war. Or both. Given the US role as the leader of the Western world (western culturally), the cycle includes the possibility of an “internal - economic crisis” in Europe, and among US allies elsewhere who share many aspects of our culture as well as being linked to the US economically.
What might a civil war look like? In the US we have already seen, in a throwback to the Civil War, efforts by some state governments to nullify federal law and to ignore federal authority. There has been some violence though, thankfully, it has been mostly contained. Perhaps the US has enough resilience and social inertia that it can survive the next several years and emerge intact. I think an argument that we won’t see a civil war such as we saw 165 years ago; rather a low-grade level of violence, rising occasionally to short bursts of inner city violence, burning and looting, integrated with efforts to use various forms of lawfare and legislation to change the nation. These may well be the battles of this civil war, and it may have already begun.
It’s also worth noting, however, that there are countries in Europe that are arguably in substantially worse shape socially than the US: the UK, France, Germany, Spain all are suffering from a great deal of internal strain and may have less resilience and less “social inertia” than the US and it isn’t a foregone conclusion that these countries will survive the next few years. Several European countries appear to be questioning traditional definitions of rights versus state authorities, and the changing understanding of governments role, and this is leading to direct confrontations between the citizenry and the state.
At the same time there is the issue of war, in particular a great power war, a war fought not by proxies but directly between the US and China, or worse, between the US and China - Russia. Such a war has been increasingly discussed and yet many seem to have ignored the reality of large nuclear arsenals on each side; even China now has at least 600 nuclear weapons and is reportedly making 70 nuclear weapons each year.
All of which leaves us where?
First, no one who has not been living under a rock doubts that we are in a period of great stress. Call it the Crisis, call it, as the authors do, “the Fourth Turning,” but we appear to be rapidly reaching a critical moment. We don't really have time to simply sit and study the problem.
Second, a general war between the great powers needs to be prevented. That is simply stated: we must deter such a war and only an overwhelming strength can do so. How do we get there is 1 - 2 years? First, reactivate both some tactical nuclear weapons and some strategic weapons. It must be made crystal clear to both China and Russia that, no matter what, they will not win. We might not either, but they will be destroyed. We aren’t going to start the war, but they must understand we will set the terms for war termination.
Second, light a fire under the nation’s industries. Set immediate deadlines, start building - ships, airplanes, weapons, tens of thousands of weapons, tens of thousands of drones. All the pieces need to be boosted. Cyber, Electronic Warfare, Intelligence, etc. etc. 5% of GDP to deter a great power war is a cheap price.
Third, we as a nation, and as the Western World, need to come together. End the cynicism in public life. Use this 250th anniversary of our nation to focus on our remarkable legacy - a legacy overwhelmingly good and moral - and resolve to strengthen that legacy. Public figures of all kinds, everyone who considers themselves an “influencer,” need to set that example to all.
We are less than 7 weeks from the 250th anniversary of the founding of this nation and we are looking at the possibility of another Civil War and perhaps another World War. Maybe we all should just repeat the last sentence of Lincoln’s Gettysburg address: he summed it all up magnificently:
It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us – that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion – that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain – that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom – and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.
