July 30th, 2026
Politics - Fedorov was to change recruitment
- Russian missile lands in Poland
Combat Ops - Russian gains
- Air strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
64 and light rain, gusting over 35. Mostly sunny to sunny through next Wednesday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
81 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny through next Monday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
77 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Sunny tomorrow and through next Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds north-westerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
Former MinDef Fedorov reported that on the day of his dismissal he was prepared to sign orders that would change the allowed procedures for territorial “recruitment” centers, but did not have time to do so.
"I had a meeting scheduled for Wednesday, at the time of my dismissal, with all key stakeholders in mobilization, where I was supposed to sign an order to remove balaclavas, cameras, how to put the territorial recruitment centers in order, a digital funnel, etc. That is, to take the first step towards reform.”
"Our task was to show it in July and launch it in August so that in September we would no longer have this problem at all. That was the timeline.”
Member of the Ukrainian Parliament Maksym Buzhanskyi commented:
"Mykhailo pondered the order to remove the balaclavas for seven months, finally dared to execute it, and then he was fired. What it means to "put the territorial recruitment centers in order", "take a step for reform" and "move further according to the plan" is also unknown. What is the essence of the reform, what plan is unclear.”
A Russian Kh-101 cruise missile (5,300 LBS, 2,000 mile range, 900LB warhead) appears to have gone off course, and impacted in a field outside of Tarnawa Kolonia, about 60 miles west of the Ukrainian border, shortly before 0400 local time. There were no injuries or damage. PM Tusk announced that Poland was coordinating with NATO, and later it was announced that there was no indication that Poland was the target, that is, the missile simply went off course.
A Polish Air Force F-16 was launched in response to the missile, but the missile dove into the ground before the intercept.
Ground Operations
There were numerous reports of marginal gains by both sides but, two are of note:
East of Kharkiv, north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed earlier reports that Russian forces have pushed across the border near the village of Artilne, a border village of perhaps 30 houses, about 16 miles north of where the Oskil River crosses the border, about 3 miles north of where the T2104 roadway crosses the Russian border. The reporting is not completely clear, but this suggests that Russian forces now are on the Ukrainian side of the border from Artilne southward, and that Russian forces have pushed further west and have taken at least parts of the village of Ivashkyne (a village of perhaps a dozen houses, 4 miles due west of Artilne). The actual disposition of forces in the area is not clear, but the terrain, and the fact that this is groomed agricultural land with a very small population, invites speculation that the Russians would try to "cut off the corner” and encircle the Ukrainian border forces remaining in that area. But that would be dependent on the forces present and there is no evidence of that sort of action yet.
In the Kostiantinivka area, Ukrainian reporting notes that the Russians have taken control of Molocharka (a bit more than a mile north of the center of Kostiantinivka) and have pushed into Izhevka (north-west of Molocharka about 2.5 miles north-west of Molocharka and 2 miles due north of the northern tip of Kostiantinivka. At the same time, Russian recon probes reportedly have reached into Druzhkivka. There is also increased reporting of Russian glide bomb attacks of hardened positions in these various cities and towns.
As you’ll recall, the glide bombs have been used for the last 2+ years to reduce Ukrainian “very hard” fighting positions and break down Ukrainian holds on key positions. Russian industry has been increasing the production of the glide bombs and Russian forces appear to be increasingly comfortable using the weapons.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
Imagery confirmed yesterday’s report on strikes Ryazan and Perm oil facilities - both are burning, and the imagery confirms that one of the processing units at Perm had been struck. Perm was struck again last night.
Russian air defense assets claimed to have shot down 258 missiles last night
An UAF F-16 crashed about 5 miles north of Orikhiv, about 10 miles from the front lines; the pilot safely ejected.
During July 27th Ukrainian forces struck multiple facilities in Moscow as well as an oil depot in Perm (650 miles east-north-east of Moscow) and an oil depot in Ryazan (100 miles south-east of Moscow). There are pictures of facilities on fire, but there has been no verification of the damage.
Ukrainian force struck a logistics facility in Podolsk (right outside Moscow), leaving the warehouse on fire. The company - Unix - makes “non-food” products.
Ukrainian forces also continued strikes on Crimean energy infrastructure, with a resultant loss of both power and water in Feodosiya and power outages across much of Crimea.
Russian Forces
During the night of July 27th-July 28th Russian forces launched at least 9 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 61 x cruise missiles (mix of Kh-59s and Kalibrs), and 284 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile, 54 cruise missiles, and 265 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts
Civilian casualties include at least 8 killed and 32 injured.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
During the night of July 28th-July 29th Russian forces launched at least 1 missile (not further identified) and 80 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 65 drones.
Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. The missile struck Odessa. Power outages were reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia, oblasts
Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 3 wounded.
On the 28th Russian forces struck a Liberian flagged ships at anchor off Odessa. The ship was unmanned and had no cargo onboard.
Following a reported year of successful tests, Russia has begun mass production of the S-8000 “Banderole” cruise missile, which reportedly uses only commercial, off the shelf parts. The missile flies at 300 kts, carries a 330lb warhead, has a 300nm range and has a 30 meter CEP. The missile has already been used as a decoy to force consumption of Ukrainian air defense assets.
The missile reportedly costs less than $300,000 a copy, and one report claims only $150,000 per copy.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul29 Jul30
Brent 94.71 91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 90.06 89.90
WTI 92.10 93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 84.56 83.82
NG 3.97 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.66 2.69
Wheat 8.52 5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.64 6.78
Ruble 85 78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 79.42 79.90
Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.89 44.69
Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 71.90 85.39
ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 86.07 84.42
Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 80.79 84.63
Thoughts
The Fedorov statement is illuminating: whether to remove balaclavas as a recruiting tool…
As for the continued Russian use of the glide bombs, reading between the lines, but it seems to me that the Russians have, over the past three years, figured out something analogous to the US joint targeting process, that allows virtually any unit to nominate a target, work it through a deliberate process, and get a weapon assigned to that target, and gets the target attacked.
The US system has been worked and worked and is now fairly smooth and the time lines are short and yet the vast majority of targets are given a thorough scrub to make certain that the right target is hit while issues of collateral damage, etc., are given due regard.
I’m not suggesting all that is taking place with the Russians, but compared to several years ago, there does seem to be fairly short time line for small elements to ID hard targets in places like Kostiantinivka, etc., get that target up the chain, get it approved, get a weapon “assigned” to it, and get the weapon dropped.
The enemy learns…
v/r pete
