August 28th, 2026

Politics - Trump: Putin won’t attack NATO

- Negotiations resume in September?

- Ukraine: 90% of warehouses destroyed

Combat ops - Marginal changes, but fighting continues 

- Strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next five days. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and cloudy, gusting over 25; rain tonight. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

70 and clear, gusting over 25. Partly to mostly cloudy through Tuesday, rain on Sunday, thunderstorms on Tuesday. Tomorrow low in the upper 40s, then daily lows near 60; daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Trump commented on the visit of CIA Director Ratcliffe and on concerns of Russia attacking NATO:

“I’ve had good talks with him [Putin]. He’s not going to be attacking a NATO territory.”

Asked about reports on Ratcliffe’s mission, the President said;

“I don’t want to comment on that, but they’re not going to attack.”

Trump said the trip was “standard business…Ratcliffe sees his Russian counterpart once every six months or once every year. They have a very good relationship. There was no message and there was nothing unusual.”

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov, when asked of the visit, commented only that Putin did not meet with Ratcliffe:

"There was no such meeting, no contacts with the president.”

He also noted that there was a meeting "with intelligence agencies."

President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview yesterday, commented that negotiations could resume as early as September. When asked if there might be a direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators he answered:

"I hope so, yes. Well, with the Americans already. Without them, no way.”

Budanov also commented on the idea of elections during war:

"Elections during war, apart from technical problems, carry a serious threat… Elections during war call their results into question to some extent. Because not everyone can vote normally. Questions start being asked: some people voted, others could not, how many were unable to vote, and so on.”

“And in a society that is not entirely united, this creates grounds for, say, one particular oblast simply to say: 'Sorry, we are for Ukraine, but we do not recognize all this, and until everything is sorted out, we will remain autonomous.' This is a path towards the state breaking apart.”

He urged all Ukrainians to:

”…calm down a little and look at the situation in Ukraine more broadly.”

Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture Vysotskyi this morning commented on the damage done to Ukrainian food and warehouses and storage:

"Ninety per cent have been destroyed. But that doesn't mean Ukrainians will be left without food. There is no threat of famine.”

He did comment that those will Lilly affect the range of items available to consumers, that the system will need to flex to “just in time delivery,” which will be more expensive, and noted that the entire Archie tire is private, not state controlled. 

"When it comes to the supply and sale of goods, we currently have no state operator in this chain. These are purely commercial and contractual relations between the parties involved. Nonetheless, from our point of view, an equal distribution of risk would be fair.”

As for losses due to Russian strikes, he commented on compensation:

"It would be fair for the distribution of risk on goods to be set out depending on the final economic impact. It can't be 100% on one side. But it should be done on a case-by-case basis, depending on the product category and the terms of cooperation."

Ground ops

Overall, very little change in the lines, with a few marginal gains by both sides, though the fighting continues with little let-up.

Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov (and others) continue to report significant Russian gains on the ground. The bulk of these gains are in fact, mostly the labelling of recon probes and infiltrations as advancements and the “seizing” of towns, and various claims need to be taken with large dose of salt.

However, they do all have an element of truth: Russian forces remain active along the entire line, and continue to conduct recon of “the next town” wherever it might be, as well as continuing to infiltrate more squads of soldiers into “no-mans land,” while continuing drone strikes into Ukrainian lines and Ukrainian villages immediately behind the lines. 

Russian forces did have confirmed gains just inside the border north-west of Sumy city.

In the center Russian forces continue to infiltrate forward in and around Kostiantinivka and imagery confirmed a small Russian element - infiltration - has pushed up the west side of the reservoir immediately west of the city, and it suggests that the Ukrainian hold on the bulk of the city is growing more tenuous.  

Further south, the situation around the town Novosoloshyne (12 miles north of Orikhiv, perhaps 15 miles north-west of Hulyaipole) has clarified a bit; it does appear that a Russian element of some sort reached the town but they were either rolled up or withdrew. Russian forces control terrain about 5-6 miles east of the town and have probed forward to the town and the terrain immediately to the east, but Ukrainian forces retain control of T0408 roadway and the smaller unnamed road immediately west, two of the three (along with T0803) GLOCs into Orikhiv and the southern front.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

On August 27th Ukrainian forces struck warehouses in Blagoveshchensk and Orenburg City

During the last 24 hours Ukrainian forces struck a ferry in Tuapse, an oil refinery in Yaroslavl, and continued to strike commercial warehouses, hitting two more last night. 

Russian sources reported there were at least 1 civilian killed and 30 civilians wounded.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 27th-August 28th Russian forces launched at least 164 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 137 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odesa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 14 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 15 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Of note, Ukrainian air defenses were able to utilize their Patriot systems on the night off August 26th (missiles having been delivered earlier this week), shooting down 7 Iskander ballistic missiles and 1 Onyx supersonic (Mach 3) cruise missile.

Patriot is the only system in the Ukrainian inventory that can engage these two systems.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9        Aug7 Aug25 Aug28

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 89.55 89.23

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 82.59 82.73

NG       3.97      2.79           3.14 3.12           2.64 2.72         2.85

Wheat     8.52            6.14   5.82           6.06 6.35 6.97 7.71

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.80 85.75

Hryvnia 28.6         43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.61 44.57

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.51 77.10

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 90.17 87.70

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.62 86.42

The jump in wheat prices reflects several issues: the war in Ukraine - and the recent increase in strikes of ships across the Black Sea, drought in Europe and a smaller  wheat harvest, and normal seasonal wheat demand from several countries.

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world largest container carrier, stopped accepting offers for movement of any cargo into or out of Novorossiysk, after one of its ships was struck by a drone. 

The MSC container ship Ulsan III (39,000 tons / 2,700 TEUs) was struck on August 25th shortly after leaving Novorossiysk, en route Turkey. There were no injuries and the ship is currently off Tekirdag, Turkey.

Thoughts

The rise in wheat prices is attributed to several things, but the damages to Ukrainian port facilities and warehouses is perhaps greater than it appears and is partly  reflected in the market pricing of wheat. Earlier estimates suggested as much as 30% of Ukraine’s wheat harvest will need to find another way out of the country rather than Odessa’s ports. 

But the harvest is just beginning and the Russian strikes continue on port facilities and grain handling and grain storage, as well as warehousing for food and goods around the country. Telling people “Don’t Panic!” nearly seems to draw a Pavlovian response to do just that. 

Just two days ago the Military governor off Kherson Oblast recommend that ‘if you have someplace to go outside of Kherson, you should go.’

This following the Fedorov firing, calls for elections, etc. Ukraine needs a “victory” of some sort. 

v/r pete  

 August 27th, 2026

Developments: Politics

There was a great deal of speculation as to CIA Director’s unannounced visit to Moscow, but President Trump appears to be tamping down the rumors.

“He’s there, you know, sort of as a matter of routine. I don’t want to disappoint people. John Ratcliffe is a fantastic guy. He’s the head of the CIA, and he is not in there for any of the things that you said. Now something may come out, you know, out of it. We’re working very hard to get that war ended, and frankly, they both want to see it ended at this point.”

Ratcliffe flew into Moscow on the 25th for a brief set of meetings.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal insists that anonymous sources (of course) who were briefed on Ratcliffe’s visit said that he was sent to deliver a specific message:

Do not attack any NATO country.

Earlier today the Russian Foreign Office appeared to threaten the UK following the announcement of the transfer of technology to Ukraine that would provide for the production of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

“They [London and Paris]  are trying to dodge responsibility for deep strikes into Russia by shifting the assembly role to Ukraine. They should understand this is “playing with fire” and that the consequences could be unpredictable, including for them.” 

“We have repeatedly warned that any British military installations and equipment in Ukraine and beyond its borders could be targeted in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory carried out using British weapons. We propose that the British leadership once again carefully analyze the situation and immediately, in the most resolute and unequivocal manner, abandon the hostile, aggressive line, which can only ... create the risk of the conflict escalating to an entirely new level.”

Development: Combat Ops

Missile and drone strikes continue by both sides, and last night Ukrainian forces again hit the Lukoil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod.

At the same time, Russian strikes into Kherson Oblast have had a cumulative effect: during the evening of August 26th-August 27th Russian forces struck the Kherson Combined Heating and Power Plant (CHP) and apparently the CHP sustained significant damage.

Oleksandr Prokudin, head of Kherson Oblast, stated:

"Overnight, Russian forces again attacked the Kherson CHP with aerial bombs. Unfortunately, this is not the first time. But this time the facility sustained very serious damage.”

“Therefore, frankly, we can no longer count on the combined heat and power plant or other critical infrastructure facilities operating normally this winter…

So we must be honest: Kherson may be left without electricity and heating not for hours or days, but for an extended period.

“I again appeal to the residents of Kherson, especially families with children and elderly people: if you have the means, relatives or friends in safer regions – leave."

Since July 1st Kherson has been struck by 170 glide bombs, 1,700 strike drones, and, in the past week, 6,500 FPV drones.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces made gains in the terrain south-east of Borova, and have retaken terrain east of the Nitrous River, between Nove and Katerynivka. This is all well-tilled farmland, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed across farmland just north of Ridkodub and pushed southward, just west of Katerynivka. The open farmland only has a few tree lines to hide in; the key is to take and hold the towns and villages, the open land is of little consequence if you can’t take the surrounding towns. Ukrainian forces need to take the towns back. Russian forces will, obviously attempt to hold the towns. The terrain between the towns has proven to be very difficult to hold.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold the northern end of Kostiantinivka, but a Ukrainian army spokesman stated that they had withdrawn forces eastward across the Kryvyi Torets River (it runs basically south-east to north-west), ceding the west side of the city to Russian forces.

This leave Ukrainian forces with a solid hold only on the north end of the city and the north-west corner, as well as isolated elements scattered across the center of the city. Ukrainian forces acknowledged that Russian forces also took the two towns of Illinivka and Stepanivka, west of Kostiantinivka.

Drone notes

A Ukrainian brigade commander commented on FPV drone use and noted that in some cases it will take 10 drones to kill one Russian.

This has come up before; while there are hundreds of videos circulating on the internet showing a drone performing amazing feats (flying into widows, flying into bunkers, etc.) the bulk of the reporting has regularly shown that multiple drones are needed for every successful attack; this is true for both sides. At one point early this year one Ukrainian drone unit commander noted that in some cases, particularly when the Russians had jammers active, they might use 20 FPV drones to get one hit, and it would take 4 or 5 hits to disable a vehicle, in short, as many as 100 FPV drones to “kill” a vehicle.

Russia launched a satellite on the 24th, believed to be part of the Russet system (a copy of the Starlink system).

During the night of August 15th-16th Ukrainian missiles struck the Progress Space Center in Samara, and reporting now suggests that the strike severely damaged the Soyuz workshop, which would threaten the launch schedule of the Russet system.

Thoughts

The drone and missile strikes have become the most visible side of this war. Western press continues to report on the damages to Russian oil facilities and to warehouses. In the wake of several strikes on warehouses and oil facilities in the past few days, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry noted that they have caused some $45 billion in damage to the Russian economy - though the specifics aren’t clear.

Clearly, this is a non-trivial amount. But it is important to note that the Russian GDP for 2026 is expected to come in at $2.7 trillion. Meanwhile, Ukraine, with a GDP of $225 billion - more than half of which is grants or aid from outside the country - has suffered, per the World Bank, $195 billion in “direct physical damage," and will need $588 billion for “recovery and reconstruction.” Note that there are no comparable figures from the World Bank on Russia, just the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s numbers.

And in some cases, such as Kherson (see above), it is now becoming apparent that the cumulative damage is going to seriously impact Ukrainian citizens in the coming winter..

Meanwhile, the Russian grind on Kostiantinivka continues. The city will fall, there will be no swift follow-on as Russian forces are not trained or equipped for such things, but it points out again that the Ukrainian army is neither manned no equipped to stop the Russian army’s way of war.

v/r pete  

 August 25th, 2026 Next Summary August 27th, 2026

Politics - CIA Director in Moscow

- Zelenskyy’s former Deputy COS arrested

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Fighting may be picking up in the south

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and sunny, gusting to 20. Cloudy through Friday, morning showers on Thursday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and sunny. Cloudy Tomorrow through Saturday morning, showers on Friday. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the lower 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny into the weekend, rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

CBS News reported that the Director of the CIA (John Ratcliffe) in in Moscow for meetings. When asked early today, Kremlin spokesman Peskov claimed to have no knowledge of the visit, or who was in fact visiting. 

Iryna Mudra, the President Zelenskyy’s former deputy Chief of Staff, has been arrested and the High Anti-Corruption Court has set post bail at UAH 20 million ($450,000).

Mudra’s office was raided by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) on the morning of August 19th (last Wednesday) and Mudra was fired by Zelenskyy later that afternoon.

Mudra, a lawyer and former Deputy Minister of Justice, is charged with, among other things, laundering some UAH 150 million ($3750,000) to post bail for the former Ukrainian Minister of Justice German Halushchenko (who is charged with skimming some $100 million worth of state energy funding.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry reports that North Korea is “continuing preparations” for deployment of forces into Russia but, per a South Korean legislator, Rep. Yoo Yong-won, Korean intelligence has not detected indications that the deployment is imminent. 

Earlier reporting has suggested that as many as 50,000 North Korean troops would be deployed to Russia, but that number has not been confirmed.

Ground Operations

North-east of Slovyansk imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces active just east of Dibrova (a town with a population of less than 400 before the war). Dibrova is on the north side of the Donets River (which runs roughly east-west in this area), and it appears that Russian forces are trying to push westward along the slightly elevated southern banks while Ukrainian forces are trying to hold on the northern bank and along the T0513 roadway. Much of this terrain was woods (part of the Serebrianske forest) but much of the forest has been burned as a result of 4 years of war and artillery fire.

In the terrain south of this area Russian forces continue to probe westward, with probes reportedly reaching into Mykolaivka (5 miles east of Slovyansk) as well as Zapovidne (about 6 miles south-west of Slovyansk, just south of the M03 roadway, west of the Donets canal). There are also credible claims that Russian forces have taken control of Orikhuvatka (2.5 miles west of Rai Oleksandrivka, 6 miles east-south-east of Slovyansk). If accurate, it almost certainly means that Rai Oleksandrivka has been secured by the Russians, closing up some of the would-be salients into the Russian controlled terrain, but that has not been confirmed.

There were no changes in the Kostiantinivka area, but there is a good deal of reporting concerning fighting around Dobropillia (north of Pokrovsk, and claims that Russian forces are pressing on the east edge of the town but imagery shows that terrain still held by Ukrainian forces.

Further south, Ukrainian forces report that they have cleared Russian elements out of Novosoloshyne (a small village that sits astride the T0408 roadway, 6 miles north of Orikhiv, about 12 miles west-north-west of Hulyaipole), but the implications are that activity is increasing in this area.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had received “a small batch” of Patriot missiles.

The Russians have struck 3 border posts (control entry points) west of Odessa in the last several days. These posts are control points for traffic between Ukrainian ports and Moldova and Romania, in particular, the Romanian ports that are being used to try to supplement Ukrainian ports due to the damage done to Ukrainian port facilities by Russian strikes. Damage to the border posts won’t prevent movement of grain trucks, for example, but it will complicate the process, making it simply more difficult and slowing the movement of trucks back and forth. In short, it’s harassment.

Ukrainian Forces

Since August 22nd Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 3 x air surveillance radars, a MiG-29 and a Ka-52 attack helicopter at Russian bases along the periphery of eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces also struck the Kamensky military-industrial plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast.

Ukrainian forces also struck two more logistics centers / warehouses and the Afipsky oil refinery - 75 miles east of Kerch.

Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 460 strike drones, 8 JDAM, and 5 HIMARS rockets.

On August 22nd Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in Samara City. The refinery was also struck on the 18th.

A logistics warehouse was also struck in Samara.

The Yeysk oil complex was also struck on the 22nd.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 24th-August 25th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-31p missile, and 150 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 124 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.  3 checkpoint in the general area west of Odessa have now been struck in the last 4 or 5 days.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 killed and 22 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 22 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported (but it has not been confirmed) that Russian forces struck a ship in port Pivdennyi (about 15 miles north-east of Odessa) as well as port facilities in the area.

During the night of August 23rd-August 24th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Onix missiles, 6 x Kh-31p or 59 missiles, 143 x strike drones and at least 2 x Banderol loitering munitions. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 1 Onix, 2 cruise missiles, 2 Banderols, and 109 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhia, oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 26 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 6 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 12 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Aug24 Aug25

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.08 89.55

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.45 82.59

NG       3.97      2.79           3.14 3.12           2.64   2.81 2.72

Wheat     8.52            6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35 7.00 6.97

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.36 83.80

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.64 44.61

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 85.87 86.51

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 92.49 90.17

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 89.63 88.62

Thoughts

The fighting in the south - in and near Novosoloshyne - is of note as that town, and the town just to its south (Mykilske), sit astride two of the very important ground lines of logistics (GLOCs) for the fight in the south-east and south. 

Novosoloshyne and Mykilske - which is immediately south of the first town - are both small towns that sit astride the T0408 roadway and one unnamed road, 6 miles north of Orikhiv, and about 12 miles west-north-west of Hulyaipole. These two roads constitute 2 of the 3 GLOCs into Orikhiv. Russian control of these towns, and hence the roads, as summer ends and autumn rains begin would present difficulties to support of Ukrainian forces in the south and south-east.

Various Russian blog commentary (the more sane ones) report fighting has increased in the area and the Ukrainian report that they have cleared the town has to be placed against some earlier Ukrainian commentary last week that the Russians weren’t there. Blogger comments note that some Russian forces have been shifted into this area and that the fight for the town is not over; rather, it’s just beginning. Further, there are suggestions that Russian recon probes are already pushing on Mykilske.

v/r pete