Remembrance

September 11th, 2026

In thinking back 25 years it helps to look back a little bit further in order to put things in perspective.

1966 was 25 years after Pearl Harbor. The Japanese were no longer the enemy. In fact, they had already become solid allies. And even though the US and Japan would face some difficult economic relations in the years ahead, no one seriously considered Japan an existential threat to the US or to the Western world in any sense. 

But it would be incorrect to say that the existential threat from radical Islam has faded.

September 11th, 2001 did not mark the first battle between radical Islam and the US, or more generally the West. After all, the Beirut barracks bombing took place 43 years ago. We have been squared off against the Islamic Republic of Iran for 47 years.

But the history is far older than that.

Some like to argue that that problem actually began with the First Crusade, suggesting that, in a certain sense “we started it.” Well, not exactly; that’s a bit off. The 1st Crusade sprung from a request by the Byzantine emperor Alexios I in 1095, asking for help in fighting off the Seljuk Turks, who were attacking his borders; the Byzantine empire had been under attack for a while.

In fact, the first contact between the armies of expanding of Islam and the Western World was in 629 AD, 466 years before the 1st Crusade. Wars of conquest - large and small - by the armies of Islam continued, pretty much nonstop until, well, today. 

In 711 the Umayyad general Tariq ibn Ziyad (Gibraltar - Jebel Tar - Tar’s Mountain) invaded the Iberian peninsula. In the 8th century Umayyad armies invaded France. They were defeated at the Battle of Tours (October 10th, 732) by Charles Martel (Charles the Hammer, or the Hammer of God), and slowly withdrew back into the Iberian Peninsula. They continued to occupy all or part of Iberia until Islamic Grenada surrendered in 1491, some 780 years later.

Constantinople - Istanbul, was founded by the Romans in 324, built on top of the city of Byzantium - a Greek city founded in 667 BC. Constantinople was Roman, or Western, until conquered by Ottoman armies under the Ottoman emperor Mehmed II in 1453. So, comments that land “has always been…” or has “historically been” Muslim is a bit of a spin. 

Jerusalem sits on top of settlements that stretch back 5,000 years - the site of a spring at the intersection of trade routes, connecting Egypt with Sumer and Mesopotamia, and sitting at the north end of what became known as the Frankincense Road, that started around Aden and ran up the west side of the Arabian peninsula. The Jewish people first moved into the region some time before 1,000 BC and have lived there since, though they have been driven off the land several times, only to return. The first mention of the Palestinians, not really to be conflated with the Philistines, is from the early 1800s.

And the last Crusade ended in 1291 - 835 years ago, after a mere 195 years of fighting. But multiple wars in the Balkans, wars of attempted conquest by Islamic empires, the battle of Lepanto, the siege of Vienna, all took place well after the last faint echo of the Crusades had faded away.

Radical Islam’s wars of conquest, or attempted conquest, really have not stopped. Think of the bizarre scenes in Ceuta. Think of those ongoing scenes in countries across Europe - and in several states into the US - where communities exist that insist on the protections of US or Western law, but who, at the same time don’t agree with that law, who want to be physically here, but to live under another system of law, who do not wish to assimilate. Communities in the US who do wish to force change on the rest of the US, who would, if they could, change our very system of government. That’s the definition of unlimited war - the overthrow of a government.

In a very real sense, this has been ongoing for 1400 years, pretty much endless war. But not one the West started. Has radical Islam given up? No. Radical Islam seeks to destroy the West, and they say as much. If they were given the means, it is hard to imagine they would not use it.

And the means to destroy us are growing. Cyber warfare and biological warfare - as demonstrated by COVID, mean a growing list of threats. Modern technology - drones, AI, robotics - means growing threats in the years ahead. 

The war isn’t over, not even close. Radical Islam is still a threat. And likely to remain so for a long time into the future. Have we made mistakes? Yes. But the threat hasn’t faded in the last 25 years. Or 1400. Today, on the 25th anniversary of the September 11th attack, we need to remember that fact. And we need to be vigilant. The war is not over.

 September 8th, 2026      Summaries for the next several weeks will be intermittent

Politics - Amb. Witkoff statement 

- EU - Money for Patriot missiles

- Prosecutor General resigns

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Strikes continue 

Economics - Financial aid reaches $200 billion

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny Wednesday and Thursday, then 5 days of mostly cloudy weather. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s, except Thursday, when temperatures will reach into the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

72 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable 5-10kts.

Kyiv

70 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through the week except Thursday, which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 50s, highs Wednesday and Thursday around 80, highs Friday through next week in the 60s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff’s posting:

At President Trump's direction, United States negotiators visited both Moscow and Kyiv in order to facilitate additional dialogue to end the Russia-Ukraine War. Ahead of the trip, the Russians and Ukrainians agreed to a three-day no-shoot policy to enable these discussions to occur. Special Envoy Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and officials from the National Security Council, State Department, and Treasury Department met with both President Putin of Russia and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine in order to discuss each side's proposals with the other. In Kyiv, the delegations were also joined by national security advisors from the United Kingdom, Germany, and France to collaborate on the path forward. Substantive progress was made, including movement on scheduling additional trilateral talks.

President Zelenskyy announced that possible sites for the trilateral meeting are:

UAE, Switzerland or Turkey.

The EU has agreed to purchase 3.2 billion euros ($3.7 billion) of Patriot missiles for Ukraine, under the EUs current 90 billion euro ($104 billion) loan program.

EC President Von der Leyen: 

"Together with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, I welcome the agreement by Member States on the derogation for Ukraine to purchase crucial products for Patriot air defence systems… This will enable Ukraine to better protect its skies from Russia's indiscriminate attacks.”

"This comes on top of €8.4 billion already disbursed under the Ukraine Support Loan, including for air defence.”

Patriot missiles production currently sits at 50 - 55 per month (600 - 650 per year), but is being increased to 165-170 per month (2,000 per year) by 2030, expected to reach 100 per month next year. But there is a backlog of 4,200 missiles and that number is growing. The missiles currently cost about $4 million per missile. 

Ukraine is currently negotiating with a number of other countries to buy missiles they have in stock.

Ruslan Kravchenko, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General (Attorney General equivalent) submitted his resignation Monday afternoon.

On the 5th Kravchenko’s office was searched by NABU personnel and NABU and SAPO (National Anti-Corruption Bureau, and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office) are investigating members of his office; Kravchenko has not been charged.

A department manager in the Prosecutor General’s office - Serhiy Kropiva - allegedly took bribes to provide protection for a fake call center that was defrauding Ukrainians.

"This is a political decision. And I made it deliberately. I do not want the office of Prosecutor General to be used as a tool of political confrontation. My position regarding the allegations remains unchanged.”

France and Italy are preparing the transfer of SAMP/T air defense system transfer to Ukraine. SAMP/T (Sol-Air Moyenne-Portée/Terrestre or Surface-to-Air Medium-Range/Land-based) uses Aster 15 (20 mile range) and Aster 30 (70 mile range) missiles to proved a layered defense capability. The Aster 30 is credited with being capable of engaging tactical ballistic missiles

Saudi Arabia’s ForMin Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud met with Russia’s ForMin Lavrov this morning. Lavrov beat the drum on “root causes,” commenting:

"We are thankful to our Saudi friends for their principled, responsible, and well-balanced position on Ukraine, for their aspiration to make a contribution to the settlement of humanitarian problems that emerged amid this situation, and for their overall role in the common efforts toward ensuring a lasting political settlement on the basis of removing the well-known root causes of this crisis.”

"If we focus on the main point, first and foremost, talks must be held - and we are always ready for them - based on an understanding of the root causes and on reaching agreements to address the root causes of the current Ukrainian crisis, which was created by the West, primarily by the previous US administration and by the European Union and NATO members, who are still trying, as they put it, to inflict a defeat on Russia and support Ukraine in everything.”

After praising the Trump administration for trying to find a solution, he commented on the EU:

"It is the European Union that continues to do everything to prevent the situation from moving toward an examination of the root causes and an examination of paths toward a reliable, long-term settlement based on the elimination of these root causes."

Ground Operations

Fighting continues along most of the line, but with few changes.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground and make small gains around Lyman (north-east of Slovyansk). It isn’t clear as to where exactly the hardest fighting is taking place, but reports suggest that Russian forces are holding inside several small towns as Ukrainian forces are using the tree lines to press on those towns. If that is the case, the increase in Ukrainian activity reflects the fact of the approach of autumn and the loss of foliage. They need to take advantage of the foliage to press their attacks; once the trees shed their leaves the recon drones and FPV drones will become more effective and movement will be more difficult.

Fighting also continues between Kostiantinivka and Dobropillia (to the west) and Ukrainian forces appear to be holding and may have gained some ground near Stepanivka (about 4 miles south-west of Kostiantinivka). 

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

On the 8th Ukraine forces struck the Saratov oil refinery (350 miles south-east of Moscow).

On September 6th and 7th Ukrainian forces conducted long range strikes on oil refineries in Tatarstan (400 miles east of Moscow) and Perm (650 miles east of Moscow), and also struck a target (not specified) in the Black Sea.

Russian air defense forces claimed they shot down 12 JDAM, a HIMARS rocket, and 713 strike drones.

Russian reporting also noted 46 civilians killed and 266 wounded in Ukrainian missile and drone strikes last week.

Russian Forces

During the night of September 7th-September 8th Russian forces launched at least 10 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, several Onix missiles, 32 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 166 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 ballistic missiles, 31 cruise missiles and 142 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and logistics facilities, as well as a TV studio in Kyiv. At least one strike drone hit the TV studios of “We Are Ukraine.”

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 29 wounded.

Russian forces shelled 15 border towns in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.

During the night of September 6th-September 7th Russian forces launched more than 92 x strike drones as well as an unspecified number of Banderol loitering drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 71 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 14 wounded.

The final count for August: the UAF intercepted 8 of 71 ballistic missiles fired at Ukrainian cities.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Sep4 Sep8

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64  2.95 2.95

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82           6.06 6.35 7.45 7.46

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09

With the latest tranche for financial aid Ukraine has now received $200 billion in financial aid since February 2022. This is in addition to an estimated $200+ billion in military aid; that total is harder to quantify because weapons are sometimes transferred reflecting purchase price and sometimes reflecting replacement price. Also, a good deal of aid is provided that has no “cost” as such - certain intelligence support, communications support, etc. In addition, there has been between $15 billion and $30 billion in humanitarian assistance. 

Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 was $199 billion.

Thoughts

Prosecutor General Kravchenko had been criticized for failing to reform the PG office, and for attempting to limit the power of NABU and SAPO.  Andrii Osadchuk, a member of the opposition in the Verkhovna Rada, and the deputy chair of the the Verkhovna Rada’s Law Enforcement committee, said that this scandal points out the need for reform. Addressing government corruption is also necessary for membership in the EU.

Osadchuk commented that:

"It will be very ‌difficult for Ukraine to move forward if we do not change the approach to selecting and appointing the prosecutor general and prosecutors at lower levels.”

Last year one of President Zelenskyy’s former business partners was accused of running a $100 million “kickback” scheme while sitting as the minister of energy (Halushchenko). Since November, 2025, the following key figures have left or been “shuffled:”

Andriy Yermak - Zelenskyy’s Chief of staff - resigned

Herman Halushchenko - Justice Minister, former Energy Minister - resigned, arrested in February trying to leave Ukraine

Svitlana Hrynchuk - Energy Minister - resigned

Oleksiy Chernyshov - former Deputy Prime Minister - charged with “illicit enrichment”

Rustem Umerov - Defense Minister - under suspicion by NABU, moved to  Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

Timur Mindich - a former Zelensky business partner, fled to Israel

This problem needs to be read in tandem with the report on total aid received: $200 billion in 4 years. The amount of money moving through the system is tremendous - imagine $30 trillion in “extra funds” (the total US GDP, or $7.5 trillion per year) dropped into the hands of the federal bureaucracy. There will be folks who want to get rich quick. 

v/r pete