October 30th, 2026
Politics - G20 meeting in Atlanta - October 30th-31st
- Putin comments on relations with Europe
- Ceasefire in Oleshky holding
Combat Ops - Strikes continue
- Ship sinks off Bulgaria
Weather
Kharkiv
56 and sunny, gusting over 20. Rain tomorrow afternoon and evening, solid clouds for 5 days. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
55 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow, mostly cloud through next week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
47 and cloudy. Cloudy all next week, daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs around 50. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting has begun in Atlanta and will run through tomorrow.
Russia’s ForMin Lavrov is in attendance.
The G20 consists of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, the USA, and the EU and the African Union.
President Putin, at a summit with leaders of several African countries, commented on relations with Europe, a potential war, and his recent phone-call with Presidents Store and Stubb.
“Many people are constantly talking about preparing for war by 2030. Is this right or wrong? First of all, we are ready, but we don’t want any war with Europe.”
“If anyone wants to, let them prepare, but [Europe] not yet achieved their goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.”
“And if it goes too far, there will be no winners at all. Let no one forget this.”
Concerning his phone-call with Store and Stubb, Putin said:
“I think it was right [that they called]. Ultimately, there are people in Europe who don’t want to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, like some, but rather want to establish some kind of constructive dialogue, [supports] any steps … aimed at restoring full and comprehensive relations with European countries. Either with all of them together, in the form of the well-known EU organization, or bilaterally. We’re all right, whatever they want.”
Stubb earlier noted that:
“The discussion was frank and substantive. We are neighboring countries to Russia. The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on our and the broader European security. Ending the war requires direct discussions.”
Store commented:
“The war comes with enormous human and material costs. The suffering and destruction will impact generations. In the call we stressed the importance of de-escalation.”
Sweden and Denmark had a different perspective, with Denmark’s PM Frederiksen saying she was “very skeptical about this Norwegian and Finnish initiative,” noted it was that it was not coordinated with Denmark or Sweden, and she “cannot see any signs that Russia wants peace with Europe.”
Sweden’s PM Kristersson commented: “… everyone wants peace except Putin…I have pretty low expectations for this kind of talk.”
The ceasefire in and around Oleshky is holding.
Ukraine’s PM Koretskyi announced earlier today that the operations was about to include the evacuation of 527 residents, but he retracted that statement, and suggested the numbers keep changing.
There is a demining effort taking place around the town as part of the process of evacuating the citizens.
Air and Maritime Operations
Ukrainian Forces
Ukrainian drones and missiles again struck the oil facilities at Samara and Russia’s Vice PM Novak reported an attack on two other oil faculties and a chemical plant, noting “minor damage” at one plant, but did not provide any further details.
Restrictions on aircraft arrivals and departures were again in place today at Moscow's Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky airports, with flights in and out of Sheremetyevo Airport remaining on schedule.
During the day on October 29th Ukrainian drones struck the Sterlitamak chemical plant 650 miles east of Moscow.
During the period October 28th-October 29th Ukrainian forces struck targets in the Moscow area, with Russian forces reporting 613 drones launched into Russian airspace. Russian sources claimed that “most” were destroyed, and that 231 were destroyed “as they approached” Moscow.
Moscow’s four airports - Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky - were closed at various times during the day but returned to normal operations.
Russian Forces
During the period October 29th-October 30th Russian forces launched at least 7 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 4 Kh-59/69 missiles, and 113 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The ballistic missiles struck in the Kyiv area and in Kremenchuk, Poltava oblast. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 3 of the Kh-59/69 missiles and 96 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The attacks hit power and logistics infrastructure and related targets. A power outage was reported in Dnipro city.
Dnipro city and Zaporizhzhia city were both struck by several glide bombs.
Civilian casualties included at least 7 killed and 77 wounded.
Contship Jet (Liberian flag), struck by 3 x USVs two days ago off the coast of Bulgaria (October 28th), sank yesterday 17 miles off Cape Kaliakra. All 18 crewmen had been rescued, taken off the ship as the ship began listing heavily to starboard. Several Bulgarian patrol boats rescued the sailors after they abandoned ship, with assistance from a French Atlantique providing spotting and overwatch.
The ship was carrying 421 containers when it sank.
The launch point and source of the USVs has not been determined but are being assumed to be Russian.
During the period October 28th-October 29th Russian forces launched at least 112 x strike drones and several Banderol loitering munitions into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 97 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kkharkiv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Civilian casualties included at least 19 killed and 82 wounded.
Technology
There are some interesting notes: earlier reports had suggested that Ukrainian drone production and usage had already passed 4 million per year (11,000 per day) and that by the end of this year production numbers would reach 19,000 per day, and reach 30,000 per day by the end of next year. Just the other say, MinDef Khmer asked EU nations for additional funding to double drone production to 16 million drones. 8 million per year would place current production (and presumably usage) at 22,000 per day, and 16 million would equate to just under 44,000 per day.
Per the UGS, Russian FPV drone production was in excess of 10,000 per day as of July, Russian sources suggested it was higher, in the range of 13,000 to 15,000 per day, and would soon reach 19,000 per day.
This is of note as the bulk of casualties are caused by drones (estimates run from nearly 80% to over 90%).
Ground Operations
Operations on the ground continue much as before, with attempted infiltrations along much of the line, the bulk of them by Russian troops, some by Ukrainian troops, and some minor changes in the line.
Russian forces made some small gains south of Dobripillia (north of Pokrovsk), and Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground on the northern edge of Kostiantinivka.
Further south, Ukrainian forces made gains just north of Fillia (along the Vovcha river), and further west, activity was lighter, perhaps a reflection of the local ceasefire around Oleshky.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct29 Oct30
Brent 94.71 77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 113.60 117.20
WTI 92.10 73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 100.30 103.90
NG 3.97 3.12 2.64 2.95 3.16 2.94 2.84
Wheat 8.52 6.06 6.35 7.46 6.86 5.96 6.03
Ruble 85 76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 81.23 80.59
Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.33 45.36
Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 110.48 102.94
ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 123.32 122.88
Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 119.53 121.60
ESPO Forward, 30 October - 130.15
Thoughts
The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian forces inflicted 49,040 casualties on Russian forces as of October 28th, which, assuming normal casualty figures for the 29th, 30, and 31st, will push them well over President Zelenskyy’s goal last year of inflicting 50,000 casualties per month on Russian forces by the end of this year.
Excuse my skepticism but this feels a great deal like the body counts passed back to McNamara’s office during the Vietnam War.
The UGS numbers have climbed fairly steadily since late last summer when they started reporting monthly casualties near 30,000 per month. With only one or two exceptions, each month has been higher than the previous month’s numbers (September’s count was 46,230). But it gets more complicated. Gen. Syrskyi noted early this spring that the “normal” KIA to WIA ratio of 1 to 3 did not apply, that Russian KIAs out-numbered WIAs.
Assuming a 50% split (KIA / WIA), that would mean the KIA count for these months would have been 23,000 and 25,000. It has also been noted - repeatedly - that about 30% of WIAs are severely wounded personnel who will never return to combat (both the Russians and the Ukrainians have used that number). So, severely wounded would have been 7,000 and 7,500 per month, for a total of 48,000 KIAs and another 14,500 severely wounded, no return to duty for the last two months; 60,000 in 2 months, 8% of the total force in 2 months.
Further, the total numbers for 2026 are in excess of 350,000, suggesting 175,000 KIAs and another 80,000 severely wounded, 36% of the total Russian commitment to the Ukrainian theater. If that had happened, why hasn’t the Russian front collapsed?
An army that held together with that scale of losses would have to be a superb fighting force with truly superior leadership…
More simply, since January the Russian army, which, per the UGS is suffering 8 times as many casualties as the Ukrainian army, has turned over the bodies of 4,995 Ukrainian soldiers. During that same period, during which the Ukrainian army claims they have inflicted perhaps 175,000 KIAs on the Russian army, the Ukrainian army has turned over the bodies of 258 Russian soldiers.
Simply put, these numbers don’t track…
v/r pete
