April 24th, 2026

Politics - POW exchange

- France and Poland deterrence training 

- EC approves loan

Combat Ops - Ukrainian strike on drone production facility and oil facility

- Russian “Grind” continues

Economics - European economic troubles

Weather

Kharkiv

46, light rain, gusting over 25. Rain should end tonight, but rain again on Sunday. Partly to mostly cloudy next week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s, except Sunday - in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

49, cloudy and windy, gusting over 25. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers and windy again on Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Kyiv

43, cloudy and windy, gusting over 30.  Mostly cloudy, rain Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. After early morning, winds westerly, 20-25kts.

Politics

193 Ukrainian POWs were exchanged for 193 Russian POWs this morning. This follows a 175-for-175 exchange on April 11th.

France and Poland will hold exercises that reportedly will involve the deployment of nuclear strike capable Rafale aircraft to Poland, as part of French nuclear deterrence training, with Poland providing providing strike escort and reconnaissance support.

France’s nuclear strike capability involves their sea launched ballistic missiles, and the ASMP (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée - Medium-Range Air-to-Surface) is a nuclear armed, supersonic cruise missile with a range over 300 miles and a 300KT warhead.

The European Council formally adopted a piece of legislation that provides for the 90 billion Euro ($105 billion), interest free loan to Ukraine.

Note, Ukraine will only need to repay the principle if it receives reparations from Russia.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

As noted yesterday, Russian FPV drone strikes continue across the border into Sumy oblast, and a Ukrainian Army spokesman reported that Russian force had pushed across the border and the village of Myropilske, a village of perhaps 30 houses, about a half mile from the Russia - Ukraine border, about 18 miles due east of Sumy city. The spokesman also noted that Russian forces had moved inside Ukraine 2 - 3 kilometers (about 1-1.5 miles) along a stretch of border from the town of Myropillia, past Myropilske, southward along about 20 miles of the border.

The town of Bohodukhiv (20 miles north-west of Kharkiv city), noted yesterday as one of targets of the Russian FPV drone strikes, was struck by another 50 FPV drones on the 22nd, what appears to be Russian efforts to interdict and complicate logistics support in the border region.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Russian recon probes continue in and around Kupyansk, but there were no changes to the front lines here or east of Borova.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Russian counter-logistics drone strikes continue across much of the front lines in this area, and Ukrainian military sources note some Russian buildup of forces, but there were no changes to the lines noted north-east of Slovyansk. 

South-east of Slovyansk imagery showed a Russian element had infiltrated into the east end of Rai Oleksandrivka (about 12 miles south-east of Slovyansk). Russian forces appear to be working westward along the road that runs between Kalenyky to the east and Rai Oleksandrivka, and the small river that runs beside the road. 

Ukrainian elements continue to hold a position in south-west Chasiv Yar, while Russian forces continue probes into Kostiantinivka but therefore no changes in the lines around that city.

Russian recon elements remain active north and north-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines across southern Ukraine. Imagery did confirm that Ukrainian elements continue to control Charivne, a small village (about 40 houses) about 12 miles south-west of Hulyaipole, but this also confirms that the western edge of the “gray zone” has pushed westward and is now just east of that town about a mile.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of April 22nd-April 23rd Ukrainian drones struck the Gorky oil pumping station in Neshika, Nizhny Novgorod (about 225 miles east of Moscow), and reported that they damaged three storage tanks; the damage has not been independently confirmed.

Ukrainian drones also struck Novokuibyshev petrochemical plant on the 22nd, about 500 miles south-east of Moscow, a major producer of fertilizer, there is no damage report yet. 

The Ukrainian Navy reported on April 23rd that it intercepted and destroyed a Russian unmanned surface vessel (USV) as it neared Odessa.

A Ukrainian missile strike on the 19th on the Atlant Aero facility in Taganrog (just east of the east end of the Sea of Azov) appears to have destroyed two production facilities and damaged 4 others. The facilities make Molniya drones.

During the night of April 23rd-April 24th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 107 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 96 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zhytomyr oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. Power outages were reported in more than 100 towns Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy,  and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 2 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.

During the night of April 22nd-April 23rd Russian forces launched at least 155 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 139 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 10 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 19 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr23 Apr24

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 101.40 104.20

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 92.46 94.56

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.68 2.54

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.10 6.18

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 75.64 75.30

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.95 44.04

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 104.08 107.49

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 106.18 109.35

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 105.41 107.34

Sweden’s Prime Minister Kristersson commented that Sweden is developing options to reduce national fuel consumption if the war in Iran continues.

“We are not planning any rationing right now, but we are prepared for it to happen.” 

The Swedish Finance Minister described this as “the worst crisis in a very long time, when it comes to energy.,” and added that “Government rationing is something that you absolutely want to avoid in every situation. That is why we are working on measures that will ensure that we do not get there.”

At the same time, other European countries are facing some economic problems.

Germany’s Economics Minister Reiche has cut Germany’s economic projections for the next two years and now expects only 0.5% growth for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027.

Thoughts

The reports of increased numbers of Russian FPV drones striking across the border and across the front lines, as well as the increased number of probes and infiltrations is probably the visible signs of the Russian “Spring Offensive.” 

There seems to have been some small amount of shifting of forces, but the key issues are the FPV drone strikes to complicate Ukrainian troop movement and logistics support to forward elements, and a steadily increasing number of infiltrations - still each in small teams (2 - 5 troops) - but more of them, particularly focused in the area from Pokrovsk to Slovyansk, and in the general Hulyaipole area. 

What is of note is that the Ukrainian army personnel reporting on the Russian drones are once again presenting them as a problems s they were during the fall and winter. What this suggests (but doesn’t prove) is that the Russians have figured out a way to provide the necessary command and control (C2) for more effective strikes behind the lines against moving targets, the effectiveness they lost when they were denied Starlink at the beginning of February.

v/r pete 

 April 23rd, 2026

Politics - Russian Oil moving through Druzhba pipeline

- Erdogan wants to restart Ukraine - Russia talks 

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Russian recon probes increase in number

Weather

Kharkiv

46, cloudy, light rain, windy, gusts over 40. Rain may change to snow tomorrow morning, temperatures in the low 30s. Mostly cloudy all week, rain again on Sunday. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s, except Sunday - in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

55, cloudy and windy, winds 20, gusting to the mid 30s, with rain showers, winds and rain dropping off by tomorrow morning. Partly to mostly cloudy through the week, rain showers and windy again on Sunday. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the mid 50s. Winds variable, 15-20kts, gusting over 30.

Kyiv

44, cloudy, and very windy, winds over 30, gusts to the high 50s, gusts and rain expected to fall off by early morning tomorrow.  Mostly cloudy this week, rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. After early morning, winds westerly, 15-20kts.

Politics

Slovak Economy Minister Saková reported that as of the 23rd in Slovakia, Russian oil is flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia, after a suspension of 3 months.

"Currently, oil is being received according to the agreed plan.”

Turkey’s President Erdogan and NATO SecGen Rutte met in Ankara on Wednesday and Erdogan told Rutte that he wished to get the peace talks going again between Ukraine and Russia. 

The official statement from Erdogan’s office noted:

“Erdogan said we were engaged, as Turkiye, for the Ukraine-Russia war to end with peace, and that we are working to revive negotiations and start talks at leaders’ level.”

Erdogan also spoke with Germany’s President Steinmeier; Erdogan’s office noted:

“Erdogan said Turkiye was working to end the Ukraine-Russia war through negotiations and reach lasting peace, just as it is trying with regards to Iran.”

Early on Wednesday Ukraine ForMinSybiha noted that Ukraine has asked Turkey to host a leader’s level meeting - Zelenskyy and Putin.

“We asked the Turks about it, we asked some other capitals.” 

The Ukrainian government has said Zelenskyy is ready to meet Putin any place other than Belarus or Russia.

Russia’s Kremlin Spokesman Peskov commented that a leader’s meeting is only appropriate if there is already some basic agreement.

“The main thing is the goal of this meeting. Why should they meet? Putin has said he is ready for a meeting in Moscow at any moment… The main thing is that there should be a reason to meet, and the main thing is that the meeting should be productive. And it can only be for the purpose of finalizing agreements.”

File under: Remembering One’s History: Comrade Putin has renamed the Federal Security Service Academy the Felix Dzerzhinsky Academy, restoring the name that was stripped from the academy in 1992. “Iron Felix” (1877 - 1926) was head of the Cheka, the GPU and the OGPU and was a key architect of the Red Terror. Appointed by Lenin as head of the Cheka in 1917, he died of a heart attack in 1926. Some 200,000 Russians were executed by the Cheka during the revolution, just a small slice of what he was responsible for.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery shows Ukrainian forces in the town of Andrivka, about 12 miles north of Sumy city, having retaken that town in the last several days.

Imagery and other reports indicate some Russian gains north of Kharkiv, as Russian forces pushed out of southern-central Vovchansk in the direction of the east end of Vilcha.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

There were no changes in the line of contact, but Ukrainian units report that Russian recon probes into and around Kupyansk have been slowly increasing in number over the past several days.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

There was no confirmed change in the lines in the area east of Slvoyansk, but heavy fighting continues in the area just east and south-east of Rai Oleksandrivka (about 12-13 miles south-east of Slovyansk).

More Russian probes and infiltrations were reported in eastern Kostiantinivka, as well as just east and north-east of that city, and there seems to be a steady rise in the number of daily probes, but there is no indication of changes in the line of contact. Instead, the span of no mans land (the gray zone) appears to be slowly increasing, spreading block by block westward into Kostiantinivka.

Similar reporting is coming out of the Ukrainian forces north and north-west of Pokrovsk, that there is an increase in the number of infiltrating Russian elements, though, again, no changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There were no changes in the front line across all of southern Ukraine. There are reports of Russian recon elements infiltrating into Ukrainian territory west and north-west of Hulyaipole, and Russian sources claim that Russian forces have pushed into Hirke (a small village of perhaps 40 houses, surrounded by manicured farmland), about 7 miles west of Hulyaipole.

It is worth noting that much of this farmland has not been farmed for several years  because of the war, and wild grasses and bushes have started to grow where before was open farmland and managed crops. This results in better concealment as the Russian recon elements move forward, and Ukrainian drone operators have commented that finding the Russian fire teams as they move is more difficult this year than last.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces report an increase in the number of Russian FPV drone strikes across the border, from Russia into Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, and that these strikes are making movement more difficult and are impacting logistics support in these oblasts. One town, Bohodukhiv (population 14,000), located about 20 miles north-west of Kharkiv city, and about 45 miles south-east of Sumy city (and 10 miles from the Russian border) was struck by 110 FPV drones over the course of 5 days (April 18-22).

During the night of April 21st-April 22nd Russian forces launched at least 155 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 139 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 10 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 19 towns.

During the night of April 21st-April 22nd Russian forces launched at least 215 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 189 drones.

Adding some confusion to reporting, Prosecutor General Kravchenko stated that 35 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles were launched and overflew Chernobyl, but his comments later referenced missile overflights over the course of the entire war.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and civilian infrastructure, with power outages in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts; 54,000 houses in Chernihiv oblast temporarily lost power.

Civilian casualties include at least 9 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 19 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr22 Apr23

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 101.40

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 91.73 92.46

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.74 2.68

Wheat      8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.10 6.10

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.75 75.64

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.93 43.95

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 98.84 104.08

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 103.24 106.18

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 101.00 105.41

Thoughts

Spring Offensive

There is a slow but steady climb in reports of Russian infiltration elements, particularly in the Slovyansk - Kostiantinivka - Pokrovsk area and west of Hulyaipole. Whether this is the “spring offensive” or simply Russian forces taking advantage of firmer ground and the new, spring foliage (and the cover it provides) isn’t clear. But the overall level of Russian activity is up, and the Russians are once again claiming the initiative.

Meanwhile, reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources suggest Russian airborne units are being moved from the Sumy region to the Kherson front. Russian Airborne units are considered elite units and are often moved to provide extra fighting capability when a front bogs down. Shifting them to Kherson would seem to conflict with earlier reports that the Russian “spring offensive” is focused on the Pokrovsk - Kostiantinivka - Slovyansk sector.

Dutch military intelligence service - MIVD (Militaire Inlichtingen- en Veiligheidsdienst or Defence Intelligence and Security Service) is reporting that Russia will be ready to start war with NATO within a year after ending the war in Ukraine.

In its annual report the MIVD suggests, that, under ideal conditions, Russia could challenge NATO with regional gains, even though it would not try to defeat NATO militarily, but rather divide the alliance.

MIVD Director VADM Peter Reesink commented:

“Russia poses the greatest and most direct threat to peace and stability in Europe, and thus to our national security and our interests.”

Russia’s tactics and methods “creates a real risk of unintended and therefore difficult-to-control escalation.” The report noted this was not possible as long as the current war continued:

“As long as the Ukrainian defense holds, the build-up of a potential Russian military threat toward NATO territory is thereby delayed.”

The report also noted that Russian forces have had a “significant qualitative improvement,” and are “demonstrating a strong adaptive capacity… The Russian armed forces have not only grown larger but have also become more effective than before the war in Ukraine,” and noted that the Russian economy has shown “an adaptive weapons industry both quantitatively and qualitatively.”

And in regard to Russia and China, while Russia alone “cannot fully achieve the [technologic] pace required for modern warfare… The MIVD observes a concerning collaboration between Chinese companies and the Russian state in the field of space technology. This collaboration is expected to intensify further in the coming years.”

It should be noted that just 3 days ago Estonian ForMin Tsahkna refuted comments by President Zelenskyy that Russia is preparing to attack the Baltic states. 

"We do not see Russia concentrating its troops or in any way preparing for a military attack on NATO or the Baltic states - quite the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, nor economically,” and he suggested that such comments play into Russian propaganda.

I think the Estonian ForMin is more right than VADM Reesink… 

v/r pete