February 24th, 2026 Next Summary Thursday, February 26th
Politics - Bloomberg claims White House has July 4th deadline
- Another Round of talks before the end of February
- SVR says France talking to Ukraine about nuclear weapons
Combat Ops - Imagery shows Ukrainian gains - counter-attack was more successful
- Russian giant elsewhere
Weather
Kharkiv
34 and light snow, snow tonight and into tomorrow afternoon. Partly cloud Friday, then more clouds. Through Thursday daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the mid 30s, but colder Friday, into the teens over the weekend. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
35 and light rain. Rain or snow showers Wednesday and Thursday, then clearing, sunny weekend. Daily lows near freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
33 and cloudy, fog this afternoon. Snow showers tomorrow morning, cloudy for the next week. Temperatures dropping, low 30s tomorrow, then in the 20s for the rest of the week, windchills in the teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
Bloomberg is reporting that President Trump wants a peace agreement by Independence Day. An anonymous source (the only kind…) who claims to be familiar with he negotiations, commented:
"Allies say the US is pushing for a deal before Trump hosts the 250th anniversary celebrations of American independence on July 4, but there’s no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to reach an agreement that doesn’t grant his central demands.”
President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff announced that the next round of negotiations will take place “at the end of this week.” Later, President Zelenskyy said “before the end of the month.” No location was given.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (“SVR” внешняя разведывательная служба "Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki”) is asserting that France and the UK are discussing providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons and have discussed specifically providing Ukraine with French TN75 warheads.
The TN75 is a 150KT nuclear weapon, and is currently deployed on France’s M51 submarine launched ballistics missiles.
Yesterday Hungary blocked the €90 billion ($106 billion) European loan to Ukraine.
The General Affairs Council did approve 2 acts that allow for the preparation of loan, but the loan itself has not been approved.
EU Deputy Minister for European affairs Raouna commented:
"Today, we formally adopted the regulations on the Ukraine support loan and the Ukraine Facility as planned… at a time when Russia is intensifying strikes on critical key infrastructure and as humanitarian needs intensify, the EU must stand firm in its support towards Ukraine.”
European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU will find a way to implement the agreement despite Hungary voting no on the loan.
The World Bank’s latest estimate on rebuilding Ukraine is $588 billion.
Slovakia’s PM Fico announced that he would refuse any request from Ukraine for electricity unit the Druzhba oil pipeline resumes operations.
Later, Slovakia’s Economic Minister said that the Ukrainian government has said that oil deliveries will start again tomorrow.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
There were no confirmed changes in the line north or east of Sumy city, but unconfirmed reporting notes Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in the town of Pakrovka, the border town about 18 miles south-east of Sumy City.
There were no changes in the line north of Kharkiv City, or east of Kharkiv along the border north of the Oskil River.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting was reported near Kutkivka (about 12 miles north of Kupyansk), but there was no change in the line. Imagery did confirm Ukrainian gains just north of Kupyansk on the west side of Holubivka. A small Russian element continues to hold a small patch of terrain inside Kupyansk, and the Ukrainian Task Force spokesman noted that they control “3%” of the city, which works out to a square kilometer. The Russian force size is still estimated at less than a platoon in size.
BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
North of Bakhmut fighting and recon probes continue, but the only confirmed change was in relation to a probe into the village of Lypivka, a village that held just a few families prior to the war (there appear to be 3 or 4 houses in the village. What is of note is that the Russian would need to control Nykyforivka before probing into Lypivka, so while not confirmed, that is probably true; as of Friday they had simply reached the center of the Nykyforivka from the east.
In the Kostiantinivka area: imagery confirmed gains just north of Kostiantinivka and just to the east and south-east. These gains are, for the most part, the same “see-saw” gains we've seen before: a small unit takes control of a couple of blocks of buildings, the Ukrainians counter-attack and retake it after a few days - and then the Russians re-attack. Both sides take casualties, that section of town is pounded into rubble.
Fighting continues further west and to the south-west, but there were no confirmed changes to the line orate of Pokrovsk, through Pokrovsk and south to the Vovcha river.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Imagery has revealed more changes in the line north of Hulyaipole than was evident earlier, suggesting that Russian units withdrew to the south and east. The front line now appears to run roughly westward from Ternove to Verbove, then south-west to the Rybne area, then west to the Dobrypillia area.
This isn’t completely clean, however, and Russian forces have counter-attacked and there are troops in contact a bit more than 2 miles north of Dobrypillia (near Radisne) and also troops in contact 2 miles west of Verbove.
This action gives Ukrainian forces control again of their second defensive line, at least from Dobrypillia north, along the Haichur River, to the area of Nechaivka, and from Nechaivka east to terrain just west of Ternove.
Using an unofficial map of Russian defensive lines constructed in the area, it appears that the Ukrainian strike reached the - recently constructed - Russian defensive lines but did not penetrate them. Ukrainian forces are presumably still probing the lines, while Russian forces are counter-attacking.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of February 22nd-February 23rd Russian forces launched at least 1 x Zircon hypersonic missile, 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 133 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 111 drones.
Damage reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid.
Civilian casualties reported include at least 11 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.
During the night of February 22nd - February 23rd Ukrainian forces struck the Kaleykino oil pumping station. This station is one of the hubs that moves crude oil from Siberia to the Druzhba pipeline. Imagery confirmed that there was a fire at the facility after the reported strike.
As you’ll recall, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic insist Ukraine reopen the Druzhba pipeline, that brings oil into Eastern Europe. (See report above in “Politics”)
During the night of February 22nd-February 23rd Russian forces launched at least 1 Iskander ballistic missile and 126 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 105 drones.
Targets again included the power grid in Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with more than 12,000 homes without power in Zaporizhzhia.
Civilian casualties reported include at least 3 killed and 6 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb23 Feb24
Brent 94.71 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 72.05 71.86
WTI 92.10 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 66.85 66.73
NG 3.97 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.09 2.94
Wheat 8.52 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.76 5.75
Ruble 85 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.02 76.20
Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.29 43.22
Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 57.78 58.60
ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 64.76 63.11
Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 67.21 66.80
Thoughts
In some of the reporting and analysis there seems to be some debate as to how much land Ukrainian forces retook in southern Ukraine in the last month or so (the “Counter-offensive”): 200 square kilometers or 300 or 400, etc. (75 sq miles, 112.5 sq miles or 150). The numbers may have some minor significance but it is minor. What might or might not be negotiated has some bearing, if they get there. But the issue right now is whether Ukraine can maintain the initiative in the area, keep attacking, and press through the Russian defensive line.
Right now there is no evidence that additional Russian forces have flowed in any sort of numbers into the area. Reporting suggests 7 or 8 brigades / regiments in the area, as there were a month ago, and additional Russian forces are not being shifted to this section of the front.
If in fact Ukrainian forces reached, but failed to breech the Russian line and have been stopped, it does serve to once again point out the difficulty in getting through a well prepared defensive line given the current mix of weapons and surveillance systems, and the reportedly excellent Russian engineers.
The SVR comment on the French talking about giving Ukraine a nuclear weapon is bizarre. Besides being a clear violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which France “acceded,” it’s hard to imagine the French would let go of a number of nuclear weapons (they have 290), or their nuclear technology.
But, more to the point, Russia could very easily decide that Ukrainian possession of nuclear weapons represented an “existential threat” and therefore the use - by Russia - of nuclear weapons to prevent this would be at least worthy of consideration by Moscow.
The question is whether the SVR believes it, or are they using this as a means to rattle their sabers.
v/r pete
