June 26th, 2026
Politics - President Trump shifts toward Ukraine
- EU changing status of Ukrainian refugees
- Crimea - state of emergency
Combat ops - Little change on ground
- Drone strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
72 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20, rain later today. Partly cloudy through the weekend, rain Monday night. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
79 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the mid 80s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
74 and mostly sunny, gusting over 30. Partly cloudy tomorrow and for the next 4 days. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics
President Trump appears to have shifted his position vis-a-vis Russia-Ukraine.
Trump posted:
"I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form… With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particularNATO, the original borders from where this war started, is very much an option. Why not?”
This change was noted by President Macron who commented:
“They stand with us on the issues of supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, providing military aid, energy support, and sanctions against Russia. He [President Trump] arrived thinking that Ukraine was losing. But he changed his mind … Yes, a real shift took place during this G7 summit.”
The European Commission (EC) announced the extension of “temporary protection” for Ukrainians until March 4th, 2028.
The proposed extension will not apply to NEWLY ARRIVING Ukrainians eligible for military service.
There are currently 4.33 million Ukrainians with official “temporary protection” in the EU, with adult males (military eligible) representing 26.6% of the total, or 1,152,000 men.
The Russian government in Crimea declared a state of emergency following the most recent strikes. Sergei Aksyonov, governor of the Republic of Crimea (the Russian subordinate government):
"Dear residents of Crimea, a state of emergency is being introduced in the Republic of Crimea from 13:00 today. This regime is being introduced in coordination with Mikhail Razvozhayev, Sevastopol [Governor of Sevastopol], and it will operate jointly and synchronously. This regime is being introduced in order to regulate financial, credit, contractual and other relations.”
The state of emergency "allows for the most rapid resolution of tasks related to ensuring the stable functioning of all sectors on which the population's essential services depend.”
As reported yesterday, Belarus appears to have turned off and kept off the signal repeaters along the border. While the Kremlin applied pressure, Minsk said no. There may be a great deal of Russian activity inside Belarus but they have not yet been - as has been suggested by some - de facto swallowed whole by Russia.
160 POWs exchanged.
Ground Operations
Activity on the ground remains limited. Small units in contact were reported up and down the line and Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue but there are few changes noted, and none appear to have changed the front line.
If there is any area of note it is the continued Russian efforts around Kostiantinivka. There is no change in control north-west of the T0504 roadway, but Russian elements continue to infiltrate into the north and west sectors of the city. South-east of the roadway more reporting suggests that that terrain is in Russian hands, but this has not been confirmed.
To the north, there are reports of increased numbers of glide bomb strikes into Slovyansk (both FAB 500 and FAB 1500) weapons. These weapons (1100 and 3300 lb guided glide bombs) are used to destroy hardened positions. Ukrainian forces continue to hold the east side of the city, Russian forces hold the center and west side of the city.
Glide bomb strikes were also reported on Druzhkivka (about 8-10 miles north-west of Kostiantinivka), again striking hardened positions. The FAB glide bombs are also used to drop bridges and interdict ground lines of communication (GLOC).
Fighting continues north of Pokrovsk, but there were no changes in the lines.
Across southern Ukraine there were multiple infiltration efforts but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. However, reporting suggests, that Russian forces have made some gains on the ground north-west of Hulyaipole, pushing westward of Vozdvyzhivka and may have taken terrain as far west as Rivne, about 8 miles north-west of Hulyaipole, placing them about 14 miles north-east of Orikhiv.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of June 25th-June 26th Ukrainian forces conducted more strikes into Crimea, as well as Bryansk, Moscow and Tula oblasts. Russian air defenses for es claimed that they shot down 660 missiles and drones. There was no report on how many reached their targets. Normal rate of successful engagement by both countries has been consistently in the 90-95% range, which would suggest an overall strike package of 695 - 730 missiles and drones.
Ukrainian forces also struck the oil depot in Poltavska, Krasnodar and two refineries in Ufam Bashkortostan.
Commercial imagery shows damage to the main antennas at the Vladimir Space communications center following the June 22nd strike.
Ukrainian special forces claimed that drones struck two cable laying ships (Volga and Vyatka) and a ferry (Petropavlovsk) in the Zatoka Shipyard in Kerch. This has not been confirmed.
During the night of June 25th-June 26th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 7 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 189 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 3 ballistic missiles and 174 drones.
Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ballistic missile strikes were reported in Poltava.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; a power outage was reported in eastern Poltava oblast.
There were at least 1 civilian killed and 8 civilians wounded in these attacks.
June 24th - June 25th
Ukrainian forces conducted more drone strikes into Crimea on the 24th, with attacks centered on Simferopol and Sevastopol, hitting multiple oil and power related facilities in stat area of Crimea, and causing power outages in much of Sevastopol. Oil industry facilities were also hit in Krasnodar oblast (east of Crimea). Drones were also reported over Moscow and flights in and out of Moscow’s several airports were temporarily suspended.
Overall, Ukraine launched “nearly 300,” drones (no accurate total given) and Russian air defense claimed to have shot down 269 drones, with drone strikes reported in 12 oblasts (not specified, but including Moscow and Krasnodar).
President Macron announced that the French Navy intercepted the sanctioned tanker Deliver (Cameroon flag, 150,000 deadweight tons) Tuesday, about 60 miles south-west of Agrigento Sicily.
During the night of June 24th-June 25th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x ballistic missiles and 90 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 83 drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Ballistic missile strike in Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outage in eastern Kyiv.
There was at least 2 civilian killed and 3 wounded in these attacks..
RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns, and there are multiple reports of front line positions being struck by FAB 500 and FAB 1000 glide bombs.
Ukraine is reporting that the signal repeaters in Belarus were turned off yesterday.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jun25 Jun26
Brent 94.71 106.40 91.78 100.50 93.82 73.43 72.71
WTI 92.10 103.60 93.53 94.91 90.59 70.02 69.44
NG 3.97 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.14 3.28 3.40
Wheat 8.52 6.25 5.79 6.14 5.82 5.96 5.92
Ruble 85 78.20 78.54 74.26 73.10 75.70 77.71
Hryvnia 28.6 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.90 44.88
Urals 91.66 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.33 58.83 60.11
ESPO 94.52 84.99 103.27 105.56 95.51 72.16 73.27
Sokol 99.31 101.55 96.88 95.96 89.90 68.70 69.78
Reporting on the Moscow oil refinery notes the refinery will be shut down for 6 months. This is based on a single, anonymous source who was first quoted by Reuters immediately after the strike and then repeated many times. Reuters inferred that the source was “in the know,” but the source remains unknown
Commercial imagery shows a large storage tank destroyed, and scorch marks elsewhere. Reuters claimed that the two main units of the facility were struck (Euro+ and CDU-6) and that these are now off line; if accurate this would mean the facility is shut down, but at this point it’s not know if that statement is completely accurate nor how long it will take to repair.
It is currently estimated that some 20% of Russia’s refining capacity has been damage. Russia has something on the order of 16% excess capacity system wide, so, this would mean, beyond short gaps, a 4 or 5% shortfall, again depending on how long is required to actually repair damage.
That said, loss of storage tanks will cause slow-downs in production; crude coming in needs to be stored, refined product going out need to be stored, as it’s handled, processed and shipped out. It is obviously possible to do some refining, but loss of some storage will impact output.
(Frankly, the targeting of oil tanks rather than the refinery “machinery” is appealing in that it still causes the refinery to slow down production, while creating magnificent photo opportunities, with roaring fires, the “oil rain,” and magnificent smoke plumes - it’s both an operational target and and a great piece of InfoWar.)
Thoughts
Across the entire front Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to use drones to strike GLOCs and GLOC related targets (supply, ammo and fuel dumps, and personnel control points. There continues to be no objective reporting on the Ukrainian situation (and precious little on Russia’s), but it appears that Ukraine’s access to EU wealth and assets, coupled with the more effective command and control (C2) provided by Western communications (in particular Starlink) have given Ukraine the advantage at this point in the air interdiction campaign.
However, this needs to be taken with a grain or two of salt; the lack of objectivity and the willingness to publish anything at all that shows Ukraine in a favorable light clouds most analytic statements. Add on to that the nearly total lack of any reporting on Ukrainian losses and the picture that emerges is arguably badly skewed.
Hopefully, there is someplace inside the Washington DC swirl some office that is collecting hard intelligence on Ukraine and has an accurate, scrubbed assessment of Ukraine’s losses and an accurate assessment of their current readiness and combat capabilities, and that this information is reaching the President.
In the past 3 weeks we have had multiple statements from highly credentialed commentators that the Russian fronts are collapsing, that tens of thousands (even hundreds of thousands) of Russian troops are panicked and the lines are collapsing in the south, in the north, in the center, and Ukrainian forces are in fact inexorably advancing. And yet none of those things happened. Add on top the discussion about millions of Ukrainian drones without recognizing equal numbers of Russian drones, leaves the war mischaracterized… Not yet time to break out the bubbly.
v/r pete
