February 12th, 2026 Next Summary February 16th
Politics - Negotiations next week - still tentative
- Mrs. Trump assists in return of children
- Small generators for Kyiv
Combat Ops - Little change on ground
- Another CHPP damaged in Kyiv
Weather
Kharkiv
35 and light rain. Cloudy for the next week, rain Saturday through Monday morning, rain may turn into snow Sunday night. Temperatures in the 30s through Monday morning, then the cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
38 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, daily rain or snow showers possible Friday through Wednesday. Daily low temperatures in the 30s, daily highs in the 40s, through Monday, then cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
34 and cloudy, gusting over 20, fog. Cloudy for the next week, snow or rain showers Saturday through Monday. Warmer temperatures through Sunday morning, low to mid 30s. Sunday temperatures will start to fall, back into the teens by Monday night, single digits by Tuesday. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
Another round of negotiations have been tentatively scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday (February 17th and 18th) in the US (Miami) but Russia has yet to officially agree.
The White House reports that Mrs. Trump helped in returning kidnapped Ukrainian children to their families, the third time that she has provided this assistance. In this case it involved 7 children being returned to their families in Ukraine. In October and December Mrs. Trump helped return 15 children to their families. Mrs. Trump has also been involved with the return of Russian children to ther families, though there are no further details.
"I appreciate that Russia and Ukraine are dedicated to bringing back the children who have been displaced because of the circumstances surrounding this conflict. Although all parties are cooperating and our communications remain robust, I urge Russia and Ukraine to intensify their efforts to ensure the safe return of every child to their families and guardians.”
More small generators have been turned over to Mayor Klitschko from the EU, bringing the total to 500 x 20 and 22KW generators.
Mayor Klitschko:
"Kyiv has received the second batch of 323 more generators from the European Union. They were handed over to the capital by EU Commissioner for Preparedness, Crisis Management and Equality Hadja Lahbib, with the participation of First Deputy Minister of Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine Aliona Shkrum. In total, Kyiv received 500 autonomous power sources from the EU. In particular, 438 generators with a capacity of 20 kW and 62 generators with a capacity of 22 kW… The first batch (177 generators), which was received earlier, has already been sent by the city to connect to individual heating stations in buildings where there is such a possibility. The second batch will also be used mainly to power the heating stations. We are grateful to our European partners for this much-needed assistance in the context of the energy crisis in Ukraine and Kyiv!"
CHPP - 6 (Combined Heating and Power Plant 6), located in the Troieshchyna area of Kyiv (north-eastern Kyiv), was damaged during the Russian drone and missile strike last night.
Maksym Bakhmatov, Head of Desnianskyi District State Administration in Kyiv, commented:
"Another hit on the CHP plant. Heating in Ukraine's largest district has stopped again. If we don't start thinking now about de-centralized heat and power generation, the Desnianskyi district will freeze next year.
"There are 130 small boiler houses in Kyiv, and they are providing heating right now. That is the right bank [the city west of the Dnepr River]. We don't have that. By 15 September, we must build 100 MW of electricity capacity and 300 MW of heating. Or more. That volume will definitely give us a chance to get through the next heating season. Without an alternative for electricity and heating, there won't even be a chance in the years ahead.”
2,600 apartment blocks in Kyiv had no heating following attacks last night, in addition to the 1,100 buildings with no heating from earlier strikes.
The United Kingdom has said it will provide 1,000 “Lightweight Multirole Missiles” to Ukraine to improve defense against drones and missiles. The missile, also known as the “Martlet,” is a 29lb, laser-guided missile with a 5 mile range, and can be launched from used as an air-to-air, air-to-surface, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface weapon.
The missile has been in development or initial production since 2011 but was not declared fully operational until October 2025. Initially the UK said it would provide 5,000 Martlet’s to Ukraine.
The UK also announced that it will transfer Nightfall hypersonic missiles to Ukraine.
Nightfall is planned to be a short-range (400+nm), hypersonic ballistic missile with a 660lb warhead. However, MODUK has not yet awarded a development contract (scheduled for March 2026).
The CEO of Hypesonica, one of the companies involved, said deployment will take place before 2030.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Imagery showed Russian forces moving into terrain just north of the small town of Nova Sich (about 12 miles north-north-east of Sumy city. This is mainly open farmland and two small forested areas just to the north-east and north-west of the town. The town had a population of 373 before the war started.
This represents the furthest south Russian forces have pressed along this front since they withdrew at the end of 2022.
Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City but there were no changes to the lines.
East of Kharkiv city, north of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces pushed eastward and have retaken the small village of Chuhunivka. Russian forces had pushed into the town from the east over the weekend, but had been stopped by Ukrainian forces from getting past the center of the town. Ukrainian forces have now pushed past the town center and appear to control the entire town.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues east and south-east of Kupyansk, but there was no change in the lines. Fighting appears to have finally ended inside Kupyansk, suggesting the last small Russian elements have been cleared - about 60 days to clear 60-80 troops.
Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains north-north-east of Borova (about 5 miles) as Russian forces pushed into the town of Bohuslavka (a town of perhaps 1300 before the war) from the south-east, and appear to have reached the P-79 roadway and the rail line, that both run in from the south. There is a Ukrainian unit, probably less than a battalion in size, that has been operating just north of this town since late December; Russian control of the road will make resupply difficult.
Just south of the Donets River, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, Russian forces continued to push westward and north-westward from the Bondarne area, across open farmland and pushing north-west up Zarichna street, and have entered the south-east edge of Nykyforivka.
Attacks continued elsewhere, with Russian probes again noted both near and inside Lyman.
BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK
Multiple Russian probes, and multiple attacks were noted from north of Chasiv Yar, through south-eastern Kostiantinivka, to north of the Pokrovsk pocket, and north-west Pokrovsk, and on past Novopavlivka to the Vovcha River but there were no confirmed changed in the line in that entire stretch.
However, Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) maps appear to show just a small corner of the very north end of Pokrovsk as not under Russian control. Myrnohrad, Rivne, and Svitle - all east of Pokrovsk, are shown to be under Russian control.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Reporting and imagery show Ukrainian gains at multiple points west and north-west of Hulyaipole, with Ukrainian forces pushing into Ternuvat and Tsvitkove, north-west of Hulyaipole, west of the Haichur river. Ukrainian forces also pushed into Staroukrainka (west of Hulyaipole) and pushed as much as a kilometer into Zaliznychne (south-west of Hulyaipole).
Russian forces were also attacking along much of this line; Ukrainian commentators suggest that this is not part of some Ukrainian counteroffensive, but rather part of an aggressive clearing operations, and the Russian presence in these area were mainly large probes.
Further west, imagery confirmed both small Russian gains and losses north-east of Stepnohirsk, as Russian forces continue to try it advance up the southern road from Stepnohirsk to Lukyanivske; Russian forces now appear to be just to the west and south-west of Lukyanivske.
Air and Maritime Operations
There was warning of an IRBM missile launch into Ukraine this morning, but it appears the launch did not take place.
During the night of February 11th-February 12th Russian forces launched at least 24 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 219 x strike drones strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 15 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and 197 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava oblasts; the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses, with at least one large transformer in Kyiv struck in the strikes, damage assessment pending.
There are reports of at least 2 civilians killed and 19 wounded..
RuAF tacair struck targets in 17 towns.
The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian Flamingo missiles struck two Russian military faculties, to include an arsenal, in the vicinity of Kotluban, Volgograd, about 150 miles east of Ukraine.
The UGS also reported a successful strike onboard the LukOil facility in Ukhta, Komi Republic, about 800 miles north-east of Moscow.
During the night of February 10th-February 11th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missile and 129 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, both Kinzhals and 112 drones.
Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.
There are reports of at least 7 civilians killed and 26 wounded..
RuAF tacair struck targets in 16 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb11 Feb12
Brent 94.71 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 69.87 68.95
WTI 92.10 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 64.98 64.28
NG 3.97 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.16 3.27
Wheat 8.52 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.29 5.40
Ruble 85 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.17 77.20
Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.03 43.05
Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.54 57.66
ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 60.41 61.05
Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 64.27 64.60
Thoughts
Tip of the hat to Mrs. Trump… well done.
Russian glide bomb strikes appear to be slowly but steadily increasing, as do the number of towns struck on a daily basis.
The smallest of the Russian glide bombs was a FAB-250, a 250KG (550lb) weapon (analogous to the US Mk-82 500lb bomb), but in fact, the more common weapon is the FAB-500, a 500KG weapon (1100lbs - the US Mk-83). These are far more destructive than drones, or artillery; a 152MM howitzer - with a 40KG (88lb) shell. Even Russia’s largest battlefield MLRS (similar to HIMARS), a 300MM in diameter rocket, carries a 250KG warhead, half the size the FAB-500.
The combination of more fiber optic FPV drones, with longer ranges, and the deep strike glide bombs - now up to 180 KM 100nm (some sources say 200 KM), as well as improved Russian reconnaissance and intelligence, means Ukrainian army assets and faculties are being struck deeper and deeper in Ukrainian controlled territory, and when they get hit by an 1100 lb bomb the level of damage is simply that much greater.
While Ukrainian forces are quite proficient at hitting Russian targets in the area immediately behind the front lines, it does appear that Russian forces are more destructive, simply because of the use of more, heavier ordnance, and that currently the Russians have a clear edge in deep strike and in disruption to the ground lines of communication, as well as in the more rapid reduction to a strong point in any given town or city.
v/r pete
