June 4th, 2026 Battle of Midway June 4-6, 1942

Next Summary June 8th

Politics - St Petersburg International Economic Forum 

- Oil flowing through Druzhba pipeline 

- Rubio says aid issue will be settled “fairly soon”

Combat Ops - Air strikes continue 

- No confirmed changes on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

70 and mostly cloudy. Rain showers Friday, partly cloudy through the weekend and into Monday Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

75 and mostly sunny. Partly or mostly cloudy through the weekend, isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Kyiv

70 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Tuesday, scattered thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

The St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is underway (June 3rd - June 5th) and some 130 countries are expected to send representatives. 

President Putin is expected to present the keynote address.

The EU will open the first “cluster” as part of negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova for integrating into the EU.

(Note: Clusters are defined as: Groups of firms, related economic actors, and institutions located near each other and with sufficient scale to develop specialized expertise, services, resources, suppliers and skills.)

Russian oil is flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia; current volume is 165,000 barrels per day. The pipeline (actually a network of pipelines) was shut down in August of last year after it was reportedly struck by drones from Ukrainian Special Operations forces.

The Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline carries oil from Siberia to Belarus and Poland and Germany and connects to other pipelines (currently providing oil from Kazakhstan at a rate of 25,000 barrels per day), and through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Maximum capacity is 1.4 million barrels per day.

SecState Rubio commented to a Senate committee yesterday that the US aid to Ukraine, that is being held while the Pentagon sorts out its weapon inventory issues, will be resolved “fairly soon,” but provided no further details.

Ground Operations

Fighting was reported along most of the front lines, Russian probes and infiltration operations continue but there were no confirmed changes in the lines for the last 24 hours.

Imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces still hold parts of Dobrysheve and Novoselivka and several of the smaller villages in this area (10 miles north of Slovyansk), and Ukrainian forces report that they - the Ukrainian forces - are counter-attacking in this area and east of Lyman.

Air and Maritime Operations

As noted yesterday, Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and naval facilities in the St Petersburg area. Independent damage assessments are not yet available, but the imagery of thick, black clouds from the oil fire won’t play well during the 3 days (June 3rd - June 5th) St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

During the night of June 3rd-June 4th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 293 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 264 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure;  food storage warehouse in Dnipropetrovsk is still  on fire, and a blackout was reported in Donetsk oblast.

There were at least 10 civilians killed and 24 wounded in strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 8 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of June 2nd-June 3rd Ukrainian forces struck a precision tool plant in Tambov (about 200 miles south-east of Moscow), a plant that manufactures control devices for aircraft and missiles.

During the night of June 2nd-June 3rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 198 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 189 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Rivne, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure;  food storage warehouse in Dnipropetrovsk is on fire.

There were at least 6 civilians reported to have been wounded in strikes.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun3 Jun4

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 97.22 94.66

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 95.00 92.68

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.15 3.31

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 5.94 5.86

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 73.77 73.66

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.34 44.35

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.94 88.72

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 96.44 98.64

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 91.76 90.62

Thoughts

Yesterday at the St Petersburg Forum, Russian media mogul Konstantin Malofeev presented several scenarios - visions of possible Russian futures in the 2036 - 2050 timeframe, that spanned from full Russian control of Ukraine and the collapse of the EU, to loss of the war, Ukraine going NATO and the colonization of Russia. Of note, he speculated about the use of nuclear weapons if the war continued by 2036.

Malofeev is not in government and this has no real impact, accept that the man is a vocal supporter of Putin and this gives a little light to what the virulent Russian nationalists are thinking and allows Putin to appear “moderate” to their more extreme positions.

As for the Russian Spring Offensive, a review of the Russian combat forces inside Ukraine shows about 175 regiments and brigades deployed inside the country, which does not represent a significant change since the start of the year.

Counting Russian units yields a “fuzzy” number as the only sources readily available are unofficial Ukrainian sources, so that number needs to be taken with a grain of salt. If anything, it is probably a bit too high, at least in regard to units that exist in the field and not simply on paper.

What is of note is that the number of units (brigades or regiments) found between the general Pokrovsk area northward to the Donets River is on the order of 80 to 90 brigades or regiments, which would seem to be an increase of perhaps 20 units since the start of this year. And, those units appear to have come from elsewhere along the line, with perhaps another half-dozen brought into the theater for the first time.

What that distills down to is that there does appear to be some increased effort in the terrain east of Slovyansk south to Kostiantinivka and then to Pokrovsk, but it hardly comes across as some sort of major plus-up in forces or a grand “Spring Offensive.”

Ukrainian forces remain essentially the same with, again on paper, a total of some 120 regiments or brigades (infantry, mechanized, tank, and artillery). Actual numbers of personnel appear to remain about the same: some 220,000 - 240,000 Ukrainian troops on the front lines, and a total force of 800,000 - 900,000 (600,000 in support) versus a Russian force with perhaps 325,000 troops on the front lines and a total force in the Ukraine theater of war of about 700,000 (375,000 in support).

v/r pete   

 June 3rd, 2026

Politics - Greece files diplomatic protest over USV

  - US, Ukraine deal on Patriot missiles

Combat Ops - Few changes

        - Air strikes continue by both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and cloudy. Cloudy or mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain showers Thursday and possibly Friday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs near 80. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and mostly cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Partly or mostly cloudy through the weekend, isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

69 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain showers tonight, partly to mostly cloud next five days, scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has filed a diplomatic note with Ukraine, objecting to the presence of armed but unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in Greek territorial water. 

On May 7th Greek fisherman recovered an USV near the island of Lefkada in the Ionian Sea. The drone was found with engines still running and 70KGS (155lbs) of explosives on board. After an investigation Greece claimed it was involved in several attacks int he Mediterranean Sea over the past several months. The Ukrainian government denies any involvement.

The drone was identified by the Greek government as a "Kozak Mamai,” an Ukrainian USV that can carry up to 850KGs (1875lbs) of explosive. The USV is a 6 meter (19.5 feet) hull covered in kevlar, and SatCom link, and is capable of reaching 65 kts in calm seas. The Greek government believes that drone was transported to the Mediterranean by an unmarked vessel that pulled into the Ukrainian base (Mellitah) in Libya, but does not believe the USV was launched from Libya.

Ukraine reportedly has 200 personnel in Libya, operating out of 3 facilities: Misrata (the Libyan Air Force Academy, also a site where US AfriCom has a presence, as well as British Intelligence, about 100 miles east of Tripoli, along the coast), Zawiya (near the Mellitah oil field, abut 30 miles west of Tripoli - used to launch both USVs and UAVs), and a third site on the road to the airport in Tripoli, at the 111th Brigade’s HQ; the 111th is the Libyan Army unit responsible for security in Tripoli.

The Greek MOFA noted that:

“…the unmanned surface vessel discovered in Greek territorial waters posed a serious threat to maritime navigation and could have caused the death of innocent citizens. Furthermore, it could have caused incalculable damage to the environment.”

"The transfer of military operations to the Mediterranean Sea, a great distance from the actual front lines of the war, jeopardizes our national security, and our national economy is suffering a decisive blow.”

The MOFA note insists that Ukraine’s right of self-defense “cannot justify such actions,” and is calling on Ukraine to abstain from these actions in the future and stop the transfer of military operations in the Mediterranean Sea.

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine the US and NATO have an agreement to supply more Patriot missiles to Ukraine as well as to provide for the manufacturing of those missiles, and includes provisions for other countries, which are waiting for delivery of Patriot missiles, to give their “place in line” to Ukraine.

"The queue for Patriot systems is measured in years. We could receive this new package [of ordered systems] around 2030 at the earliest, which did not suit me... So there was an agreement with certain countries that could give us their place in the queue so that we could receive the Patriot system. But you can only take that place in the queue if you have paid for the contract. And we have to pay.”

"We must do whatever it takes to pay for this contract. Otherwise, all the systems and missiles will arrive in 2030.”

"I know it is difficult but the Foreign Ministry, the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine and the Defence Ministry are obliged to do this… We must find this money. It doesn't matter where. Just find it. Because securing both the Patriot systems and a place in the delivery queue is even more difficult."

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue, but there were no changes to the lines.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

It is in this area - specifically north-east of Slovyansk, where the two sides appear to have “traded” land - Russian forces apparently gains some terrain north-east and south-east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces gain terrain due east of Lyman, and Russian forces appearing to pick up land due east of Kramatorsk, as well as in the south-east end of Kostiantinivka and along the western edge of Kostiantinivka. Of these various gains and losses, the issue of taking terrain immediately west of Kostiantinivka is of note, as the city can be approached on level terrain from the west. The West side of the city is, however almost 100 feet higher than the center and east side, and sits on a small bluff, making it a substantively more difficult assault.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

As elsewhere, Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue, but there were no changes to the line.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of June 2nd-June 3rd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 198 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 189 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Rivne, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure;  food storage warehouse in Dnipropetrovsk is on fire.

There were at least 6 civilians reported to have been wounded in strikes.

Ukrainian drones hit Russian infrastructure targets in Murmansk and St Petersburg areas. Ukrainian reports also claim hits on the Steregushchy class corvette BOIKIY (343 feet, 2100 tons) at the Kronshtadt naval base, St Petersburg. Russian reports claim 59 drones shot down in the St Petersburg area, and 354 drones shot down overall. Ukrainian drones also struck a city bus in Yanakijeve (in occupied Donetsk, south-east of Horlivka), killing 8 and injuring 11 civilians.

As warned on the 31st, during the night of June 1st-June 2nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 33 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 27 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 5 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 656 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 11 Iskander ballistic missiles, 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles and 602 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Khmelnitsky, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure; power outages were reported in several sections of greater Kyiv.

There were at least 23 civilians killed and 132 civilians wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 Jun2 Jun3

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 94.60 97.22

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 91.87 95.00

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.13 3.15

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.02 5.94

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 72.71 73.77

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.31 44.34

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 86.70 86.94

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 96.44 96.44

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 87.99 91.76

Thoughts

Overall, both Ukrainian and Russian forces remain active, but there are few changes. No mans land continue to slowly grow and expand westward but Russian forces still find it very difficult to operate under the Ukrainian drone “umbrella” that has evolved over the past year or so. But, Ukrainian forces find it equally difficult to operate.

Ukrainian forces report that the spring vegetation continues to thicken and this is complicating detection of Russian recon probes as they push forward. Russian troops have become adept at use of foliage (much more than 2 or 3 years ago, and IR cloaks have proliferated and deny easy IR detection of individual troops. Still, there is no reason to believe there will be any rapid changes along the front.

What is of concern is that the Russians, unlike last year, are keeping the power grid on their target list and more frequently returning to already struck targets. Actual damage reports on the Ukrainian power grid aren’t released, but comments from various individuals over the past month or so suggest that the grid is in worse shape now than it was in late fall 2025. A sustained “revisit rate” by the Russian strike complex would seem to set the stage for a very hard Ukrainian winter in 7 months.

v/r pete