September 8th, 2026      Summaries for the next several weeks will be intermittent

Politics - Amb. Witkoff statement 

- EU - Money for Patriot missiles

- Prosecutor General resigns

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Strikes continue 

Economics - Financial aid reaches $200 billion

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny Wednesday and Thursday, then 5 days of mostly cloudy weather. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s, except Thursday, when temperatures will reach into the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

72 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable 5-10kts.

Kyiv

70 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy through the week except Thursday, which will be sunny. Daily lows in the 50s, highs Wednesday and Thursday around 80, highs Friday through next week in the 60s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff’s posting:

At President Trump's direction, United States negotiators visited both Moscow and Kyiv in order to facilitate additional dialogue to end the Russia-Ukraine War. Ahead of the trip, the Russians and Ukrainians agreed to a three-day no-shoot policy to enable these discussions to occur. Special Envoy Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and officials from the National Security Council, State Department, and Treasury Department met with both President Putin of Russia and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine in order to discuss each side's proposals with the other. In Kyiv, the delegations were also joined by national security advisors from the United Kingdom, Germany, and France to collaborate on the path forward. Substantive progress was made, including movement on scheduling additional trilateral talks.

President Zelenskyy announced that possible sites for the trilateral meeting are:

UAE, Switzerland or Turkey.

The EU has agreed to purchase 3.2 billion euros ($3.7 billion) of Patriot missiles for Ukraine, under the EUs current 90 billion euro ($104 billion) loan program.

EC President Von der Leyen: 

"Together with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, I welcome the agreement by Member States on the derogation for Ukraine to purchase crucial products for Patriot air defence systems… This will enable Ukraine to better protect its skies from Russia's indiscriminate attacks.”

"This comes on top of €8.4 billion already disbursed under the Ukraine Support Loan, including for air defence.”

Patriot missiles production currently sits at 50 - 55 per month (600 - 650 per year), but is being increased to 165-170 per month (2,000 per year) by 2030, expected to reach 100 per month next year. But there is a backlog of 4,200 missiles and that number is growing. The missiles currently cost about $4 million per missile. 

Ukraine is currently negotiating with a number of other countries to buy missiles they have in stock.

Ruslan Kravchenko, Ukraine’s Prosecutor General (Attorney General equivalent) submitted his resignation Monday afternoon.

On the 5th Kravchenko’s office was searched by NABU personnel and NABU and SAPO (National Anti-Corruption Bureau, and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office) are investigating members of his office; Kravchenko has not been charged.

A department manager in the Prosecutor General’s office - Serhiy Kropiva - allegedly took bribes to provide protection for a fake call center that was defrauding Ukrainians.

"This is a political decision. And I made it deliberately. I do not want the office of Prosecutor General to be used as a tool of political confrontation. My position regarding the allegations remains unchanged.”

France and Italy are preparing the transfer of SAMP/T air defense system transfer to Ukraine. SAMP/T (Sol-Air Moyenne-Portée/Terrestre or Surface-to-Air Medium-Range/Land-based) uses Aster 15 (20 mile range) and Aster 30 (70 mile range) missiles to proved a layered defense capability. The Aster 30 is credited with being capable of engaging tactical ballistic missiles

Saudi Arabia’s ForMin Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud met with Russia’s ForMin Lavrov this morning. Lavrov beat the drum on “root causes,” commenting:

"We are thankful to our Saudi friends for their principled, responsible, and well-balanced position on Ukraine, for their aspiration to make a contribution to the settlement of humanitarian problems that emerged amid this situation, and for their overall role in the common efforts toward ensuring a lasting political settlement on the basis of removing the well-known root causes of this crisis.”

"If we focus on the main point, first and foremost, talks must be held - and we are always ready for them - based on an understanding of the root causes and on reaching agreements to address the root causes of the current Ukrainian crisis, which was created by the West, primarily by the previous US administration and by the European Union and NATO members, who are still trying, as they put it, to inflict a defeat on Russia and support Ukraine in everything.”

After praising the Trump administration for trying to find a solution, he commented on the EU:

"It is the European Union that continues to do everything to prevent the situation from moving toward an examination of the root causes and an examination of paths toward a reliable, long-term settlement based on the elimination of these root causes."

Ground Operations

Fighting continues along most of the line, but with few changes.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold ground and make small gains around Lyman (north-east of Slovyansk). It isn’t clear as to where exactly the hardest fighting is taking place, but reports suggest that Russian forces are holding inside several small towns as Ukrainian forces are using the tree lines to press on those towns. If that is the case, the increase in Ukrainian activity reflects the fact of the approach of autumn and the loss of foliage. They need to take advantage of the foliage to press their attacks; once the trees shed their leaves the recon drones and FPV drones will become more effective and movement will be more difficult.

Fighting also continues between Kostiantinivka and Dobropillia (to the west) and Ukrainian forces appear to be holding and may have gained some ground near Stepanivka (about 4 miles south-west of Kostiantinivka). 

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

On the 8th Ukraine forces struck the Saratov oil refinery (350 miles south-east of Moscow).

On September 6th and 7th Ukrainian forces conducted long range strikes on oil refineries in Tatarstan (400 miles east of Moscow) and Perm (650 miles east of Moscow), and also struck a target (not specified) in the Black Sea.

Russian air defense forces claimed they shot down 12 JDAM, a HIMARS rocket, and 713 strike drones.

Russian reporting also noted 46 civilians killed and 266 wounded in Ukrainian missile and drone strikes last week.

Russian Forces

During the night of September 7th-September 8th Russian forces launched at least 10 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, several Onix missiles, 32 x Kh-101 cruise missiles and 166 strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 ballistic missiles, 31 cruise missiles and 142 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power grid and logistics facilities, as well as a TV studio in Kyiv. At least one strike drone hit the TV studios of “We Are Ukraine.”

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 29 wounded.

Russian forces shelled 15 border towns in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.

During the night of September 6th-September 7th Russian forces launched more than 92 x strike drones as well as an unspecified number of Banderol loitering drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 71 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties included at least 14 wounded.

The final count for August: the UAF intercepted 8 of 71 ballistic missiles fired at Ukrainian cities.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Sep4 Sep8

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.69 98.19

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 89.17 93.28

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64  2.95 2.95

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82           6.06 6.35 7.45 7.46

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.38 86.21

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.52 44.63

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 86.70 89.44

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 94.52 98.44

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.94 94.09

With the latest tranche for financial aid Ukraine has now received $200 billion in financial aid since February 2022. This is in addition to an estimated $200+ billion in military aid; that total is harder to quantify because weapons are sometimes transferred reflecting purchase price and sometimes reflecting replacement price. Also, a good deal of aid is provided that has no “cost” as such - certain intelligence support, communications support, etc. In addition, there has been between $15 billion and $30 billion in humanitarian assistance. 

Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 was $199 billion.

Thoughts

Prosecutor General Kravchenko had been criticized for failing to reform the PG office, and for attempting to limit the power of NABU and SAPO.  Andrii Osadchuk, a member of the opposition in the Verkhovna Rada, and the deputy chair of the the Verkhovna Rada’s Law Enforcement committee, said that this scandal points out the need for reform. Addressing government corruption is also necessary for membership in the EU.

Osadchuk commented that:

"It will be very ‌difficult for Ukraine to move forward if we do not change the approach to selecting and appointing the prosecutor general and prosecutors at lower levels.”

Last year one of President Zelenskyy’s former business partners was accused of running a $100 million “kickback” scheme while sitting as the minister of energy (Halushchenko). Since November, 2025, the following key figures have left or been “shuffled:”

Andriy Yermak - Zelenskyy’s Chief of staff - resigned

Herman Halushchenko - Justice Minister, former Energy Minister - resigned, arrested in February trying to leave Ukraine

Svitlana Hrynchuk - Energy Minister - resigned

Oleksiy Chernyshov - former Deputy Prime Minister - charged with “illicit enrichment”

Rustem Umerov - Defense Minister - under suspicion by NABU, moved to  Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

Timur Mindich - a former Zelensky business partner, fled to Israel

This problem needs to be read in tandem with the report on total aid received: $200 billion in 4 years. The amount of money moving through the system is tremendous - imagine $30 trillion in “extra funds” (the total US GDP, or $7.5 trillion per year) dropped into the hands of the federal bureaucracy. There will be folks who want to get rich quick. 

v/r pete

 September 7th 2026 Summary of Action

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner were in Moscow on the 5th and met with President Putin and then flew to Kyiv and met with President Zelenskyy on the 6th.

A three day ceasefire covering Kyiv and Moscow was in place during their visit.

A broad ceasefire was offered by Kyiv but Putin rejected it.

More broadly, Putin reiterated Russia’s demand for all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, which includes considerable areas of land that the Russians have yet to reach.

President Zelenskyy met several times with the two men on Sunday.

The two men told Zelenskyy that they want to return to a three-sided negotiation process (Ukraine - US - Russia), that they will meet with President Trump when they return to Washington DC and that Trump will then call Zelenskyy and Putin.

Witkoff and Kushner apparently suggested that the Russian negotiating position will ease after the Duma elections September 18th - 20th.

European Pravda, quoting an unnamed source in the French government, reported that the French, German, UK and Ukrainian governments are now preparing their terms for further negotiations with Russia, based on the results of France’s national security advisor Emmanuel Bonne’s meeting with Putin, as well as Bonne’s meeting with Witkoff and Kushner yesterday. Bonne and the national security advisors of Germany and the UK (Günter Sautter and Jonathan Powell respectively) all met with Witkoff and Kushner in Kyiv.

The four countries have a list of demands that include security guarantees and return of Ukrainian territories, as well as the process for relief of sanctions.

This morning Kyiv Mayor Klitschko banned mass entertainment or sporting in open air arenas or sites without shelters, effective September 10th.

"Regarding restrictions on mass gatherings in the city. Due to the deteriorating security situation in the capital, all entertainment and sports events in open areas and facilities without shelters will be temporarily banned.”

(Please see my “Thoughts” below).

Ground Operations

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact. Of note, Ukrainian forces made marginal gains at several points east of Slovyansk. What this has done, and the same has taken place at other points along the front lines, is to generate multiple small, would-be salients. As Russian forces continue to probe Ukrainian positions and infiltrate into various towns, the result is a series of small “fingers” that represent possible salients for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are, as per their SOP, trying to cut off these small salients and straighten lines, but it is slow going.

The arrival of autumn weather in the next 4 - 6 weeks, and the accompanying rain, will force most resupply and personnel movements onto the roads, simplifying targeting and complicating operations on these lines.

Meanwhile, Russian forces appear to be moving additional troops forward in the Pokrovsk - Kostiantinivka area, and may have begun a troop rotation north of Sumy.

As first noted a couple of weeks ago, Russian forces north-east of Kharkiv (north of the Oskil River border crossing) are pressing to the north-west while other Russian forces, east of Vovchansk) are pressing to the south-east. On paper, this presents an opportunity for the encirclement of perhaps a brigade sized Ukrainian army formation. However, as also noted, Russian forces are not moving quickly enough to complete such an encirclement. 

There has been Russian reporting - propaganda - over the weekend that such an encirclement took place. But there is no information that supports that statement.

Russian forces are still trying to “cut off” that corner of Ukraine, but they have not yet done so, and would not appear to be close to achieving that result. Russian forces continue to fight the Russian way of war, which is slow, deliberate, and from an operational and tactical sense, low risk. Casualties will be high on both sides, but there is very little possibility of the Russian forces making glaring errors.

In the south-east Ukrainian forces continue to clear and consolidate terrain they retook in the March April time frame, from Fillia (about 20 miles south-west of Pokrovsk) to roughly the Dobropillia area (another 30 miles further south-west, about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole). It should be noted that both sides have thinned out forces in this area and that, if there is a spot on the line that could change relatively quickly, this is probably it.

At the same time, Russian forces continue to press north-west and west from the Hulyaipole area, and long range probes have pushed out to areas north-east of Orikhiv.

Of note, the Russian probes and infiltrations toward Orikhiv from the west, the south-east, and as just mentioned above, from the north-east, all threaten the GLOCs that support Orikhiv. This will be of particular note in the coming weeks as cold, rainy weather arrives.

Air and Maritime Operations 

There was, as noted above, a three day ceasefire covering Kyiv and Moscow (ends tonight), but other strikes continued.

Over the weekend Ukrainian forces continued strikes against Russian oil and logistics infrastructure, hitting the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant and the nearby Avangard munitions factory (about 650 miles east of Moscow), and an oil refinery in Ryazan (about 110 miles south-east of Moscow.

Russian forces contend to strike the power grid and logistics related targets, launching an unspecified number of Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-31P anti radiation missiles and at least 396 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace, 313 of which were shot down.

Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. 

Approximately half of the strike drones are now jet powered strike drones.

There were, as well, a number of Banderol “loitering” drones - please see my “Thoughts” below.

Thoughts

I read an interesting article over the weekend which related how people in Kyiv are dealing with drones and missile strikes. Despite Mayor Klitschko’s efforts to keep safe the citizens of his fair city, it appears the citizens are taking a different approach. One might call it studied indifference. People have learned when to expect attacks, but also when to ignore them. Banderols apparently are readily recognizable and can be easily judged to be either a threat or something to be ignored. Other drones also can be waved away as inconsequential as the noise indicates it is “passing by” and therefore represent no immediate threat to a given listener.

This is a testimony to how adaptive people can become.

It is also a story I’ve read elsewhere, both in other reports from Ukraine and from reports from Crimea and elsewhere in Russia. 

As with the English, and Germans, and Japanese, and Russians in World War II, and others elsewhere, people can adapt to nearly anything, they do so rapidly and, in the case of this war, it appears that they have.

What does that mean? The majority of the people of Ukraine - and Russia - are not going to rise up and demand Zelenskyy - or Putin - end the war. In fact I would suspect that if you could poll those people who are growing increasingly competent at dodging strike drones around Kyiv, as they grow more capable of dodging drones, they become more adamant that their forces need to hit Moscow harder. And I suppose the same is true of Russians. It means that the people aren’t going to give in. And that means this war is going to go on for quite some time… 

v/r pete