August 19th, 2026
Politics - Khmara (DefMin) Sybiha (ForMin) approved
- Fedorov calls for elections
- Corruption probe hits Zelenskyy Deputy COS
Combat Ops - Marginal gains, grind continues
- Ukraine large strike into Russia
Weather
Kharkiv
72 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow and then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
71 and mostly cloudy. Clear tomorrow and through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
69 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy through Friday, afternoon thunderstorms on Friday, then clearing through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
This morning the Verkhovna Rada voted to appoint Gen(Ret) Khmara as the Minister of Defense and Andrii Sybiha as Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Former DefMin Fedorov then issued a statement calling for elections in Ukraine, stating that the war was not a viable excuse and that this “suspension” of democracy was contrary to the goal of the war: freedom.
Ukraine’s constitution specifically states that there cannot be a national election while martial law is in effect. President Zelenskyy’s nominal term ended in May 2024.
Fedorov:
"Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia. We are fighting precisely because we want to remain a free European state. Therefore, we must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to restore a full democratic process even amidst a prolonged war.”
Fedorov noted that:
"Democracy is not a peacetime luxury. Democracy is part of what we are fighting for today… People can’t endlessly live in a state where they do not understand why certain decisions are made.”
“Democracy could not simply be postponed.”
"We need to ensure the security of the electoral process, the independence of institutions, and trust in the outcome… but that complexity did not mean it could not be done. Ukraine has repeatedly done what the world considered impossible. We can find a solution here as well.”
“Elections are not just a ballot. This is the moment when the government again comes to the citizen and says: "This is what we have done. Now you decide whether to trust us further… It is this principle that distinguishes a democratic state from a system where the government itself decides when society can evaluate it. We should not allow Putin to decide when Ukrainians can choose their government. Ukrainian democracy should not depend on the goodwill of the Kremlin.”
President Zelenskyy’s Office (not Zelenskyy himself) had several comments in response:
It was "highly bizarre to plan elections amidst missiles and drones” and Fedorov’s statement "This demonstrates a complete lack of realism.”
There was a 103 POWs for 103 POWs swap completed this morning.
President Zelenskyy has dismissed Iryna Mudra as deputy chief of staff of his office after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) reported that her offices had been searched as part of an anti-corruption investigation.
The NABU and SAPO issued a statement that said they’d begun “a special operation to expose a criminal organization that operated under the leadership of current and former people’s deputies of Ukraine, with the participation of high-ranking officials of the Office of the President of Ukraine and other persons.”
Justice Minister Halushchenko and Energy Minister Grynchuk resigned last November, amid ongoing corruption probes.
Corruption charges are also pending against the president’s former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
A Ukrainian has been arrested in Croatia and will be extradited to Germany as part of the ongoing investigation into the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. The man, identified as Vladimir Z, is the second Ukrainian arrested as part of this investigation.
German Minister of Justice spokesman commented:
“We’re simply glad that the federal prosecutor’s office is making progress in these investigations, because it’s important that the bombing of the pipelines be clarified as well.”
German prosecutors say that Vladimir Z is a trained scuba diver and he worked with Serhii K (the first man arrested) to plant the explosive charges on the pipeline.
Ground Operations
Imagery shows Ukrainians gains in the fields north of Novomykhailivka (SE of Borova) - gained ground on 1 tree line.
In several towns east and north-east of Slovyansk fighting continues and both sides claim minor gains, which may in fact be correct, but are still followed by more infiltration attempts by Russian forces.
Imagery confirms Russian forces have consolidated their hold on parts of eastern and central Kostiantinivka. Russian forces now perhaps 1/3rd of Kostiantinivka and have infiltration elements spread across the rest of the city. Russian recon probes also continue to push out north and north-west of the city and there are Russian infiltration elements in the town to the immediate north and south, Russian forces control small sections of both these towns, and recon elements have probed into the south-east edge of Druzhkivka.
Further to the west Russian forces continue to push north and north-west from the general Pokrovsk area, infiltrating Dobropillia and towns both east and south of that town.
One blogger noted that the small town of Krasnyi Kut (before the war a small town of perhaps 30 houses along one street), had been reduced by glide bomb strikes to the point that there were no buildings remaining to use as defensive positions for Russian troops. Russian forces appear to have taken that town during the last few days of July; the town is about half way between Kostiantinivka and Dobropillia.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces launched 600 drones and missiles into Russian airspace. Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 453 drones and missile.
An oil refinery in Ufa, oil tanks are said to be burning (though there is no independent confirmation of what was and what was not struck).
Local reporting noted at least1 civilian killed and 3 wounded.
In the last two days Ukrainian forces claim to have struck 5 bulk carriers in the eastern Black Sea.
Commercial imagery of the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara shows damage to the facility that was being used to modernize TU-95 bombers.
During the night of August 17th-August 18th Ukrainian forces launched strikes into Ufa and Nizhniy Novgorod.
Ukrainian long range drones struck Moscow as well as Crimea and the near rear, to include 5 tactical command posts.
Ukrainian sources are reporting that the tanker Skiros (Greek flag, 900 feet, 159,000 deadweight tons, also listed as Liberian flag) was struck just off the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, Sunday after taking on a load of fuel.
The ship has secured its AIS and is un-located but in the eastern Black Sea
During the night of August 16th-August 17th Ukrainian missiles struck a logistics center in Belgorod. Russian sources reported that the strike killed 6 civilians and wounded 4 more.
Russian Forces
During the night of August 18th-August 19th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballast missiles and 65 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 1 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Sumy Oblast and 5 border towns in Chernihiv Oblast.
During the night of August 17th-August 18th Russian forces launched at least 147 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 111 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Civilian casualties include at least 10 civilians killed and 8 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns.
Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Sumy Oblast.
Ukrainian army sources note that some Russian drones are being equipped with both microphones and “magnetic detectors” - what sounds like a magnetic anomaly detector and a motion sensor so that a vehicle passing nearby will set off the warhead. The drone is then “landed” on netting over roads and sits and waits for a target to pass under it.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug18 Aug19
Brent 94.71 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 91.09 81.59
WTI 92.10 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.13 85.80
NG 3.97 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.72 2.83
Wheat 8.52 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.35 6.90 6.99
Ruble 85 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 85.15 84.56
Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.75 44.70
Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 84.60 85.60
ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 87.37 87.52
Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 86.98 87.48
Thoughts
The drone and missile strikes are of note, but the call by Fedorov - who was until a month or two ago a very strong ally of President Zelenskyy could be very disruptive. Demonstrations - all peaceful - have continued in support of Fedorov in multiple cities across Ukraine; he is a very favorably regarded across Ukraine. He also, obviously knows the Ukrainian law precluding elections under martial law.
In several Ukrainian papers there were immediate editorials supporting Zelenskyy though there are editorials over the past month the clearly posture Fedorov as possibly the next president. As one oped author noted earlier in Ukraine Pravda, the firing of Fedorov, and the subsequent firing of Sysrskyi is a probable “Black Swan” for President Zelenskyy. Fedorov’s statement may be the Black Swan taking wing.
v/r pete
