July 29th, 2026    

Politics -  Zelenskyy asks for 300 Patriots

- Sanctions bill advances in Senate

Combat ops - Marginal changes on ground

- Strikes continue

Combat Ops

Weather

Kharkiv

68 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly cloudy on Thursday, partly cloudy on Friday, then sunny through next Wednesday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

75 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny tomorrow and through next Monday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

72 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 35. Mostly sunny tomorrow and through next Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Trump and President Zelenskyy met on Tuesday, and the key issue, as noted yesterday, was the number of Patriot missiles Ukraine needs to defend itself over the course of the next year. Zelenskyy asked Trump for an emergency “winter package” to protect Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter approaches. The Kyiv Post reports that Zelenskyy said he needs 300 Patriot missiles.

The Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 passed a procedural vote 86-12 and now moves to a final vote in the Senate. It will not move to the House until the end of August. The bill provides, among other things, the President authority to impose a 500% tariff on all Russian imports, specifically including oil, natural gas and refined products, as well as increased authority to penalize shadow fleet ships. The bill has been opposed by some for giving too much authority to the executive branch.The bill also names several Russians who will face increased sanctions.

Iran’s ForMin Araghchi commented that he was assured that the attack over the weekend on the Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea was unintentional and that Ukraine does not seek an escalation. But, Araghchi made it clear that any attack was unacceptable and that there must be restitution for losses. 

There are no new reports of protests over the firing of DefMin Fedorov. It’s not clear if protests simply aren’t being reported or have simply died out.

Ground Operations

Russian small unit ground assaults and infiltrations continue along the entire front. There were few changes to the line or the areas in which infiltrations are taking place.

A Russian infiltration was noted just south-east of Lyman (north-east of Slovyansk), which is of note as the area has been noted repeatedly as under Ukrainian control.

Russian recon robes pushed into western, northern and central Kostiantinivka and, again, while the city is still very much contested, the Russian infiltration seems to be spreading like a slow-growing cancer. More to the point, the Ukrainian elements in the city are not stopping it.

It is also of note that, while the Russians do not control the city, they have effectively denied it to Ukrainian forces; the civilian population (before the war: 78,000) is gone, and the city is, as with any number before them, being pummeled.

In the south-east, north of Hulyaipole about 10-12 miles, there are multiple reports of small Ukrainian and Russian gains, but none have been confirmed.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

During July 27th Ukrainian forces struck multiple facilities in Moscow as well as an oil depot in Perm (650 miles east-north-east of Moscow) and an oil depot in Ryazan (100 miles south-east of Moscow). There are pictures of facilities on fire, but there has been no verification of the damage.

Ukrainian force struck a logistics facility in Podolsk (right  outside Moscow), leaving the warehouse on fire. The company - Unix - makes “non-food” products.

Ukrainian forces also continued strikes on Crimean energy infrastructure, with a resultant loss of both power and water in Feodosiya and power outages across much of Crimea.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 28th-July 29th Russian forces launched at least 1 missile (not further identified) and 80 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 65 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. The missile struck Odessa.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 3 wounded.

During the night of July 27th-July 28th Russian forces launched at least 131 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts

On the 27th Russian drones struck 2 cargo ships on the Bug River, 2 in Mykolaiv, and port facilities in Odessa and Chornomorsk.

Civilian casualties include at least  killed and 11 injured.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul28 Jul29

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 86.75 90.06

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 81.42 84.56

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.68 2.66

Wheat     8.52  5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.62 6.64

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 78.52 79.42

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.98 44.89

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 76.94 71.90

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 86.07 86.07

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.63 80.79

Thoughts

Metaculus - the online prediction engine is predicting a ceasefire on November 24th, 2027. This seems to be more like as Jimmy the Greek his opinion than anything else.

The drivers for their calculation is the rise in Russia’s debt, the rise in Russian losses, and the virtually stalemated front line.

The front line is stalemated, though the war is one of attrition, not maneuver.

But this raises the issue of what data are they using. It appears that they are taking the Western News report casualty figures as gospel - which really don’t have any Ukrainian casualty figures or systems losses to compare them with, so, comparing apples to, well, nothing. And there appears to be a firm conviction that federal deficit in Russia is fundamentally different than federal deficits in the rest of the world, as if the Keynesian economists all started quoting von Mises.

Russia, it notes, is running a budget deficit of about 5% of GDP, with the implication that Russia’s economy clearly can’t sustain the war. Meanwhile, France, the UK, Poland and Romania all have budget deficits as large or larger than Russia’s, as a percentage of GDP.

As for the sanctions package, one editorial noted that it will hardly impact the major traders with Russia, particularly China.

v/r pete    

 July 28th, 2026    

Politics -  Zelenskyy in Washington, Graham Funeral, met with Trump

- Odd accusation from Iraq

Combat Ops - Marginal change on ground

- Air strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and partly cloudy, thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Mostly cloudy on Thursday then sunny through next Tuesday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

73 and partly cloudy, thunderstorms tonight, then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

69 and rain showers, gusting over 25.  Partly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 5 days of sun. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy is in Washington, and met with both President Trump and members of the Senate today. He is scheduled to attend Senator Graham’s funeral.

Zelenskyy had said that in his talks with Trump, air defense - Patriot missiles - is the number one priority. After the meeting he commented:

"The President and I discussed licenses for Patriot interceptor production and several other ideas that could help. We also spoke about diplomacy – it's important that the diplomatic process be reinvigorated. Our teams will arrange the details of their further communication. I am grateful to the United States for its firm support.”

Also Present were:

Secretary of State Rubio, Treasury Secretary Bessent, Secretary of War Hegseth.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's ambassador to the US, Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the President's Office, Foreign Minister Sybiha; Davyd Arakhamia, leader of the Servant of the People party (the ruling parliamentary faction); Rustem Umierov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine; Serhii Kyslytsia, First Deputy Head of the President's Office; and Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the President's Office.

Ukraine’s acting MinDef Khmara is also  talking to various EU nations looking for more Patriot missiles, talking with the UK this afternoon.

Late on Monday the Iraqi government reported arrests a Ukrainian sabotage group. The Iraqi National Security Advisor, Qasim al-Aboudi, stated:

"Ukrainian intelligence cells carry out attacks in Iraq and attribute them to resistance groups. We have disbanded a number of groups that carried out attacks inside Iraqi territory, and targeted several state facilities. During interrogations, they confessed to affiliation with Ukraine.” 

This morning the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry answered, said that the accusations were had no basis, and that this was the result of Russian propaganda, trying to discredit Ukraine with Mid East nations. 

President Putin signed the authorization to increase the Russian Armed Forces total strength to 2,426,130 from 2, 399,130 (a 1.1% increase), also increasing military personnel total to 1,535,000, up from 1,510,000, a 1.6% increase. Overall, the Russain army has increased in size year by year from 2022, growing in size by 487,000.

This number includes some growth in all the service, not simply the army.

Peaceful protests continue in repose to the firing of MinDef Fedorov.

Ground Operations 

There has been little change on the ground along the length of the front, though reporting suggests no significant change in the level of infiltrations and assaults.

Imagery confirmed Russian infiltrations continue in and around Kostiantinivka and into Druzhkivka. 

Further south, Imagery confirmed Russian recon elements just north of Hulyaipilske, about 9 miles south-west of Hulyaipole, along the T0814 roadway. Overall, tis area west of Hulyaipole remains another widely infiltrated, somewhat confused “checkerboard” but Russian forces appear to be making some very slow headways westward along the roadway.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

During July 27th Ukrainian forces struck multiple facilities in Moscow as well s the Prioritet oil depot in Udmurtiya (650 miles east-north-east of Moscow). There has been no verification of the damage.

Russian Forces

During the night of July 27th-July 28th Russian forces launched at least 131 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

On the 27th Russian drones struck 2 cargo ships on the Bug River, 2 in Mykolaiv, and port facilities in Odessa and Chornomorsk.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 injured.

During the week of July 19 - July 26 Russian forces launched more than 1,700 strike drones, 95 missiles, and more than 1630 glide bombs. 

During the night of July 26th-July 27th Russian forces launched into Ukrainian airspace a number of missiles (not yet clarified) and at least 147 x Strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot or defeated with EW, 123 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia  oblast.  Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties included at least 2 killed and 25 injured.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Jul27 Jul28

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 89.69 86.75

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 83.28 81.42

NG       3.97      2.73 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.76 2.68

Wheat     8.52  5.79 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.71 6.62

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 78.03 78.52

Hryvnia 28.6 43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.88 44.98

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 83.56 76.94

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 86.07 86.07

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 78.89 77.63

Multiple reports have noted that Kazakhstan’s oil imports are being cut off as a result of the ongoing war. Kazakhstan normally exports about 1.7 million barrels per day, and its oil I not sanctioned by any country. But the majority of Kazakhstan’s oil is moved via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which runs east from eh Caspian Sea basin to a terminal on the Black Sea just outside of Novorossiysk. Italy, the Netherlands, France, India Greece and Turkey all receive oil via the pipeline, with the pipeline accounting for 15% of Europe’s crude imports. In the last 3 months oil sold to Europe averaged 1.42 million barrels per day. Due to strikes on oil tanners in the eastern Black Sea in the past month, the CPC stopped accepting oil from Kazakhstan on July 21st.

With the closing of the pipeline, which is Kazakhstan’s major oil outlet to the world, other faculties are cutting back on production and this week Kazakhstan’s total production has dropped from an early July average of 2.1 million barrels per day (MBPD) to 1.6 MBPD.

Thoughts

The quest for more Patriot missiles is interesting. Per online sources (so take with appropriate amounts of salt) more than 10,000 Patriot missiles - all variants - have been produce in the past 40 years. Up until this year production of the PAC-3 SME (Patriot Advanced Capability 3 Missile Segment Engagement) was 620 per year, but a contract signed in January bumped that to 2,000 per year.

Since the war started in Ukraine, Ukraine has - per Lockheed - more than 250 successful engagements, but there have been unsuccessful engagements and engagements that required more than 1 missile and unofficial estimates place the number used as high as the low 600s.

As for how many have been fired in the various engagements in the Mid East (Houthis, Iran 2024, Iran 2025, Iran 2026) and various shooters (US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.), estimates are in the neighborhood of 2,000 missiles used. Given some of the reporting (for example, UAE reported engaging 537 ballistic missiles, but did not list types of missile used for each engagement), that number might be low.

Further, ordering an increase in production and getting more missiles inset the something. The missile itself - guidance, warhead, etc, reportedly takes nearly 2 years to build, but the long pole in the tent is the engine, with the solid propellant needing some 30 months to cure. 

It is, of course, possible to use a different, faster curing propellant. But that would change the performance of the missile and, given the intricacy of these weapons, its probability of intercept.

As an additional note, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Air Defense - also built by Lockheed), is a very capable system, but Lockheed delivered its 900 missile in January of 2025 and make 8 missiles per month, so 152 since, so, 1052 missiles built to date, and roughly 350 have been fired in combat. 

v/r pete