September 1st, 2026 Next Summary September 3rd

Politics - Bessent meets with Russia’s Siluanov

- Ukraine Budget Austerity measures

Combat Operations - Hard fighting, see gains by both sides

- Strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next five days. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs around 80. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

80 and sunny. Mostly sunny into the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

65 and cloudy, rain showers possible tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy all week, isolated thunderstorms Thursday and on the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

SecTreasury Bessent met with Russian Finance Minister Siluanov yesterday at the G-20 meeting in Asheville, NC.

Russia’s Finance Ministry spokesman said that the two discussed Russia-US cooperation on financial matters. 

A US Treasury spokesman said that they discussed the Trump peace plan and economic growth. Bessent apparently made it clear that there would be no economic relief for Russia as long as the war continues in Ukraine.

Many nations protested the presence of the Russians. When asked about it, President Trump commented:

“We’re going to see what happens, but we like getting along with everybody. One of the reasons that I’m so successful, I get along with everybody.”

Ukrainian PM Koretskyi has announced non-defense budget austerity measures.

"The government is introducing austerity measures for budget funds that are not earmarked for defence needs. As a result, we have already identified UAH 70 billion (about US$1.6 billion) in savings, which will be allocated in full to defence needs.”

“Meanwhile, we must fulfill all necessary social commitments. Therefore, there will be no problems regarding pensions or [public sector] salaries.”

The current 2026 budget is being “revised” due to a need for more defense funds.

Hungary refused to approve the results for Ukraine’s “Clusters 2 and 3.”

The process of joining the EU includes bringing a country’s laws into agreement with the laws of the EU. These laws are divided into 6 groupings, called clusters (1 - Fundamentals of the accession process, 2 - Internal Market, 3 - Competitiveness and inclusive growth, 4 - Green agenda and sustainable connectivity, 5 - Resources, agriculture and cohesion, 6 - External relations).

At the latest meeting the EU Council, Hungary approved Cluster 3 for Moldova but did not approve Clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine. There is no date yet set as to when Ukraine’s accession will again be discussed.

The Lindsey Graham Sanctions Bill, which passed the Senate 86-11 on August 7th, appears to be hung up in the House, as senior Democrats feel the bill gives President Trump too much power, and there are enough Republicans who are soft on the bill to leave passage in doubt.

Ground Operations

Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have retaken the town of Novoselivka (12 miles north-east of Slovyansk  - just 2 miles north-west of Dobrysheve.

What this highlights is that Ukrainian forces are trying to press on what might be called the northern flank of the Russian push on Slovyansk. 

Fighting is slowly increasing in this area as Ukrainian forces commit more assets into the woods north Lyman, to try to cut off some Russian elements in the area, and to bring pressure on the north face of the Russian push on Slovyansk, recognizing that there are only another 4 - 6 weeks of summer weather and then the fall rains will begin and will make movements more difficult, both due to mud and due to the loss of foliage, which will make surveillance easier and FPV drone strikes more effective.

Further south, Russian forces continue to make small but meaningful gains both due east of the fortress belt (particularly in the area east of Kramatorsk) and also in and around Kostiantinivka, particularly just west of Kostiantinivka. 

Ukrainian army spokesman have commented on Russian gains at multiple sites in this area and note that Russian elements are now holding ground just 4 miles east of Kramatorsk.

A look at a map of the lay-down of forces shows that a series of small salients have developed as Russian forces push forward, and that the Russians are now trying to close off the salients - connect the western ends - before Ukrainian forces can reinforce elements inside the salients. 

There is little of note from south-east and south fronts, but there was one note of Russian recon elements being attacked in the eastern edge of Orikhiv, which is the first Ukrainian army report of Russian elements reaching Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

In the last 24 hours Ukrainian drone and missile strikes hit 7 logistics warehouses in Belgorod and Sverdlovsk oblasts.

BDA of the Kirishi oil refinery (outside of St Petersburg) following the August 30th strike showed damage to a pipeline and there were indications that the facility “partially suspended operations." 

Ukrainian forces struck a refinery in Samara and the Ust Luga oil loading facility outside St Petersburg.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 30th-August 31st Russian forces launched more than 5 x Iskander ballistic missiles, multiple Zircon, Kalibr, Kh-310 and Banderol cruise missiles, and 218 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 5 ballistic missiles, 5 cruise missiles, 2 Banderol loitering cruise missiles and 187 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts. Another border post was struck, this a post on the Romanian border. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities. A power outage was reported in Odessa.

Civilian casualties included at least 8 killed and 17 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 6 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

During the night of August 30th-August 31st Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59 and 121 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 96 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure, particularly port facilities. A power outage reported in Kharkiv.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 20 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

The Russian Rassvet satellite payload (16 satellites) launched on July 19th appears to have had some problem and to date none of the 16 satellites has reached its intended 550 kilometer (300nm) altitude. The satellites are currently in orbit at altitudes between 180 and 240nm. 

Rassvet is a Russian analog to Starlink.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug31 Sep1

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 90.41 92.06

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.24 87.82

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12   2.64 2.92 2.90

Wheat     8.52           6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35 7.65 7.76

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 86.16 86.70

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.47 44.47

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 77.99 77.99

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 87.81 93.37

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 87.68 88.17

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Budanov, in an interview on Ukrainian TV on the 28th, commented that Ukraine must mobilize no less than 30,000 per month

"No matter how much we say that we will call differently now, the quantitative indicators will not change, which means that the number of dissatisfied people will not change either. You can't do anything about it.”

He also commented on not believing the end of the war was near at hand.

"I think very soon everyone will see negotiations, but it will be more about the technical side and preparation for something big, which I hope we will get to someday. We will not stop the war now. Not because we don't want to, it's just not realistic."

Budanov’s number serves as a mark on losses.

In the first year of the war (2022), the Ukrainian army surged in size and by the end of the year had reportedly reached 1.3 million. At that point the recruitment - enlistment effort reportedly stabilized at 25,000 per month. 

At that point the army also started to shrink. As there were - and still are - very few people who are allowed to leave the army without a severe wound, that number represented unrecoverable losses: killed, severely wounded (will never return to active duty, POWs, and desertion). POW numbers remain relatively low - perhaps less than 1,000 per month (and perhaps a good deal less than that).

Desertions as of last December were, depending on the source, between 6,000 and 15,000 per month. KIAs were generally slightly higher than the number of severely wounded, 5 KIA to 4 Severally Wounded, or perhaps 5 to 3.

A year ago it was stated that the Army, which had been 1.3 million in size during 2022 and early 2023, was having trouble remaining at 900,000, despite recruiting 25,000 per month since late 2022. At that time there were indications that the army was in fact pulling in more men, but the official number remained 25,000. Budanov has now “raised the number.”

If the number of desertions is running 10,000 per month, then KIA + Severe WIA is on the order of 20,000 per month, which is 11,000 KIA per month.

For a frame of reference, Mediazone, the one deliberate, methodological,  independent source of Russian casualties, puts Russian losses in the last year at in the range of 2,500 to 9,000 KIAs per month, and interpolating between several numbers it would seem Russian losses are between 7,000 and 8,000 KIAs per month average for the last year.

v/r pete