May 1st, 2026
Politics - New Personnel Policies
Combat Ops - Marginal gains on ground
- Ukrainian strikes continue on Russian oil
- Ukrainian strikes pass Russia in March 2026
Weather
Kharkiv
46 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the weekend, mostly sunny next week. Daily lows in the low 30s through the weekend, in the 40s next week. Daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5kts.
Melitopol
50 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the week, rain on Monday. Lows this weekend in the 30s, next week daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
51 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, but mostly sunny next week. Low tomorrow in the mid 30s, lows in the 40s next week, high tomorrow in the mid 50s, this weekend and next week highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy announced changes to personnel policies in the Ukrainian military, which will ostensibly allow for the de-mobilization of personnel for the first time since the start of the war.
"I have instructed [Ukraine's military leadership] that the contract system in the defence forces be strengthened so that, by expanding the contract component, defined service duration terms are ensured and – starting already this year – a phased discharge from service becomes possible for those who were mobilised earlier, based on clear time-based criteria."
"Next week, I expect a report on concrete steps to implement the reform – including the schedule for increased payments starting in June and the system of updated contracts.”
This follows on the order signed out by Gen Syrskyi yesterday specifying mandatory 60 day rotations off the front; all of this in the wake of a rising chorus from the general population on what is perceived as very poor treatment of army personnel.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north and east of Sumy City, and north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.
EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER
Both sides reported the other side was attacking in the area east of Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.
SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA POKROVSK
Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces gained ground in the terrain south of the town of Kolodyazi, creating a narrow salient in mainly open farmland, between the towns of Zarichne on the east side and Stalky on the west (all north-east of Slovyansk).
Further south, Russian reporting suggests Russian forces now control the town of Zakitne (about 15 miles east of Slovyansk). Zakitne, which sits on the south bank of the Donets river, with the west end of the town in an oxbow in the river, has been the site of what was termed heavy fighting and Ukrainian forces made a determined effort to retake the town earlier in the year.
In eastern Kostiantinivka and in the terrain just east and south-east of that city, imagery confirmed several Ukrainian recon elements had infiltrated into Russian positions.
Fighting continues further to the west but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian forces do claim that Russian forces pushed into Novooleksandrivka, a village just north of Hryshyne; this hasn’t been confirmed but is credible.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to probe into each other’s lines but there were no confirmed changes in the lines. Reporting does indicate Russian recon probes have reached into Hulkiiaipilske and Charivne, two small towns about 10 and 12 miles south-west of Hulyaipole.
Air and Maritime Operations
Ukrainian forces again struck refineries in Perm and in Tuapse. The Tuapse refinery continues to burn, with at least 24 storage tanks at the facility having been destroyed. The refinery is currently shut down. The refinery has an installed capacity of 240,000 barrels per day.
Ukrainian forces struck two Russian patrol boats (“Sobol” and “Grachonok”) near the Kerch Strait early in the morning on April 30th, the attack carried out by USVs. There has been no independent report of the extent of damage to either patrol boat.
During the night of April 30th-May 1st Russian forces launched at least 409 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 388 drones.
Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.
There were at least 12 civilians wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 4 towns.
During the night of April 29th-April 30th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 206 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 172 drones. The ballistic missile appears to have struck Dnipropetrovsk city.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa oblasts.
Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.
There was at least 1 civilian killed and 18 civilians wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 22 towns.
Russian forces launched 6,583 long range strike drones into Ukrainian airspace during April, a 2% increase over March.
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes in Russia totaled a bit over 7,000 in March 2026, the first month of the war in which Ukrainian long-range drone use was greater than Russian long-range drone strikes into Ukraine (6,583).
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr30 May1
Brent 94.71 61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 114.30 108.30
WTI 92.10 57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 104.90 101.40
NG 3.97 3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.62 2.78
Wheat 8.52 5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.44 6.38
Ruble 85 80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.90 75.02
Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.94 43.90
Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 116.06 112.05
ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 117.44 117.44
Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 109.53 103.41
Thoughts
Overall, Russian recon elements continue to probe into the center of the city of Kostiantinivka, while Ukrainian elements push back, and continue to infiltrate into “no mans land” east of the T0504 roadway. The painfully slow Russian way of war has, however, pushed the edge of the “gray zone” from 4 - 5 miles east of Kostiantinivka, one of Ukraine’s "fortress cities,” to the middle of city, over the course of the last 6 months. The objection is made that the Russians are barely making progress, and that at this rate it will take Russia decades and decades to conquer Ukraine. Further, Russia is said to be taking huge casualties, 5 times as many as Ukraine, if the Ukrainian General Staff is to be believed.
But, they aren't to be believed. Ukrainian officials have admitted that they are having difficulty keeping overall force strength at 800,000, despite taking in some 25,000 - 27,000 every month. In as much as no one is allowed to leave the army (note the paragraph above in changes in personnel policies) except those who are severely wounded and can no longer serve, that means that the Ukrainian casualty rate (KIA + Severely wounded + desertions + POWs) is roughly at a rate of 25,000 permanent casualties per month.
Note that, per the Ukrainian army medical leadership, 70% of all wounded return to full active duty status, most of them within 30 days. Russian army leadership makes similar claims about Russian casualties.
Gen Syrskyi just a week or so ago commented that Russian casualties are on the order of 35,000 total casualties (KIA + All WIA + POWs) per month. That would translate into roughly 6,500 KIA + 6,500 severely wounded + 21,000 other wounded + 1.000 POWs per month, or 14,000 permanent casualties per month.
This underlines the Russian army effort: to fight a war of attrition and grind down the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian countryside.
Ukraine’s strikes on the Russian oil industry has been quite destructive, but the Russian campaign of attrition is equally or perhaps more destructive. How the changes in Ukrainian personnel policies will affect the actual flow of personnel into the army remains to be seen. It is worth noting that Ukrainian army figures are suggesting that by the end of this year or early 2027, Ukrainian forces will be launching 30,000 FPV drones per day across the front (10 million per year) and suggest that this will allow them to drive the Russians back, implying that the smaller infantry footprint in the army will be more than compensated by the increase FPV drone use.
v/r pete
