May 8th, 2026 V.E. DAY

NEXT SUMMARY MAY 19th

Politics - Russian Ceasefire for 24 hours

- SecState Rubio: US wants to mediate a peace

Combat Ops - Very little movement, many drone strikes across front lines 

- Ukrainian drones strike refineries in Yaroslavl and Perm

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers daily beginning Monday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

75 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, scattered showers starting Monday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

80 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Showers possible tonight, rain probable daily through Thursday (a break possible on Monday). Cooler, daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, highs in the low 60s. Winds westerly, 10kts.

Politics

The unilateral Russian ceasefire will go into effect at midnight tonight (Moscow time - 4PM EDT) and end 24 hours later (Midnight on the 9th  4PM EDT Saturday.

The Russian Ministry of Defense again issued a series of threats of retaliation against Kyiv if there are strikes into Moscow, and called on Ukraine to cease hostilities for that period.

Kyiv has stated that it “…see(s) no reason to observe the ceasefire.”

The Kremlin has revoked press credentials for a number of foreign press representatives who were to cover the parade. These include: Der Spiegel, ARD, ZDF, Sky News, Agence France-Presse, Rai, and NHK.

A Kremlin spokesman commented:

"The format of the parade coverage has been changed due to the current situation. Therefore, foreign media outlets that had already been granted accreditation are no longer permitted.”

Der Spiegel commented:

“Only Russian media are permitted.”

SecState Rubio commented on the peace process, acknowledging that there not yet “a fruitful outcome” but 

“… it has not led to a fruitful outcome for a variety of reasons”

"We remain prepared to play that role [mediator] if it can be productive. We don't want to waste our time and invest time and energy on an effort that's not moving forward. But if we see an opportunity to act as a mediator that brings both sides closer to a peace deal, we'd like to see it… both sides are paying very heavy prices for it, both economic and obviously at a human level".

"We're prepared to play whatever role we can to bring it to a peaceful diplomatic resolution; unfortunately … those efforts have stagnated, but we always stand ready if those circumstances change.”

A Russian Opposition group, the Dossier Center (located in London, founded by the Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky) has published a brief, out of the office of Putin’s Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko, which it claims shows “the most plausible scenario” for the end of the war. 

That scenario involves the US signing separate peace agreements with Ukraine and Russia, Russia controls Donetsk and Luhansk in their entirety’s nd the front lines are frozen across the south in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The US will then lift sanctions against Russia, Ukraine would be neutral (presumably not a member of NATO), and Russia would receive a symbolic de-nazification of Ukraine. Zelenskyy would remain president.

Whether these slides are real or some sort of propaganda effort or Information Warfare effort remains to be seen.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

No significant changes noted.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting - and Russian assaults - are reported along the entire front lines but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Russian reporting claimed that Russian forces took the small town of Pryshyb (pre-war population of 443), about 6 miles north-west of Lyman, and about 10 miles north of Slovyansk. There is nothing particularly significant about the town itself except that it is on the south side of the Donets River, which is of note. If the report is accurate,  Russian forces would have a “toe-hold” across the river in this area. I would expect Ukrainian forces to move aggressively against the Russian forces here if this report is correct.

Multiple reports of recon probes and infiltration by Russian forces into Kostiantinivka, and the checkerboard continues to slowly grow around the eastern end of the city, and arguably the “gray zone” or no man’s land contains to slowly grow.

One interesting note, Ukrainian sources talking about the Kramatorsk area report a drop in infiltration attempts and an increase in the use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) planting mines while also increasing the use of drones to strike ground lines of logistics supporting the city’s defenders.

Ukrainian reporting notes an increase in the number of Russian elements attacking in the general Pokrovsk area and notes that Russian attacks are taking place around the clock, with no real let-up at night.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continuers west and north-west of Orikhiv, but there are no confirmed changes to the line.

South-east of Orikhiv Ukrainian forces appear to be holding in the town of Bilohirya, with Ukrainian forces on the north side of the small Konka River, Russian forces holding on the south side. 

Further east, Russian probes that had pushed into central Prymorske have been pushed out and the line now seems to lie just north of Stepnohirsk and across the south end of Prymorske; Ukrainian counter-attacks appear to be on the increase and it would seem that Ukrainian forces currently have the initiative in the Orikhiv area and points west to the Dnepr River.

Air and Maritime Operations

Last night Ukrainian drones struck the refinery in Yaroslavl, about 150 miles north-east of Moscow. Extent of the damage is unknown, but fires were reported.

There is no new assessment on the damage to the Perm refinery, which was struck again last night - the third strike on the refinery. An assessment published early on the 7th said that the facility was operating at 70% capacity (roughly 250,000 barrels per day).

During the night of May 6th-May 7th Russian forces launched at least 67 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 56 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

RuAF tacair struck 6 towns.

During the night of May 6th-May 7th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (not identified) and 102 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 92 drones. 1 ballistic missile was successfully engaged over Dnipropetrovsk city. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 6 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 3 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May7 May8

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 97.41 100.50

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 91.32 94.91

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.78 2.79

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.10 6.14

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.53 74.26

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.86 43.90

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 98.46 92.56

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 107.27 105.56

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 97.42 95.96

Thoughts

 

While Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure has made the news, reporting suggests an increase in the number of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian tactical positions immediately behind the front lines. The extent of these strikes is difficult to gauge as the number reported is still small in absolute terms: with strikes on one or two tactical vehicles, antennas, command posts or a gathering of troops reported every day. 

These strikes are always small: a single vehicle, an antenna, a gathering of a squad or a slice of platoon. And, the language is always absolute but at the same time not definitive: a “facility was struck and is now on fire.” At the same time Ukrainian reporting notes increased Russian drone strikes across the front lines into the Ukrainian rear. 

What doesn’t match are the numbers: reporting covers only a handful of incidents, but then overall numbers are related that suggest tidal waves of drones. Both sides report that they are using thousands of FPV drones per day; Gen. Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian tactical drones struck 150,000 targets in March alone, while using 11,000 FPV drones per day. Russian reporting suggests FPV drone usage of a similar scale - thousands per day.

And yet Ukrainian reporting singles out that they “stopped a mechanized assault" as a key event of the day, and then it is revealed that the assault consisted of a single infantry fighting vehicle and 12 guys on all terrain vehicles.

At the same time, the “objective” coverage is often framed in hyperbolic terms: the facility was “destroyed,” yet later independent imagery shows much of a facility undamaged.

All together it suggests that there is a very difficult time assessing what the real outcomes are of these attacks and so the answer is to judge everything based on the “input” - as much for propaganda effect as anything else, and then simply extrapolate: in March 330,000 FPV drone sorties were flown, 150,000 targets were attacked and destroyed, 35,000 Russians were killed, all this a 10% increase over February. Russian numbers aren’t quite as over the top, but perhaps only because they aren’t published as much.

Yet, the front line really is stagnant. And my best estimate is that each side is suffering something on the order of 150 - 200 KIAs per day, and a similar number of severally wounded per day. 

v/r pete