May 19th, 2026

Politics - Putin in Beijing

- Russian Strategic Forces Exercise

Combat Ops - Little ground change, drone and missile strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

79 and light rain. Thunderstorms tomorrow, then two days of mostly sunny weather, then rain showers and thunderstorms daily through the end of next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

79 and partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible tonight and daily through the weekend. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

78 with rain showers, gusting over 20. More rain tonight, thunderstorms tomorrow and and possible daily through Saturday. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 10kts.

Politics

President Putin is in Beijing for meetings with President Xi. It is expected that they will both commemorate the 25th anniversary of the 2001 "Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation” and further tighten the relations between the two countries: China needs oil, Russia needs both a customer for her oil and technology and support to keep fighting the war. 

And China is learning a good deal about how the next war might be fought.

Presumably talks will include discussions on building the proposed “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline, a proposed 1,600+ mile long pipeline from the Yamal gas field in northern central Siberia, through Mongolia, into China. In particular, Putin will try to get Chinese funding for the construction of the pipeline.

There is already a pipeline (Power of Siberia 1) that moved 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas into China last year (100 million cubic meters per day). The new pipeline will, when built, move 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year (135 million cubic meters per day).

China cruelty produces about 60% of it’s natural gas, but there is little room for growth; China’s natural gas consumption for 2025 was roughly 435 billion cubic meters (1.2 billion cubic meters per day), and is expected to increase by 5% by the end of 2026, and has been forecast to peak at over 700 billion cubic meters per year by the mid 2030s. China therefore needs to access more sources of natural gas.

Russian Strategic Rocket Forces and the Northern and Pacific fleets, with the support of some Belarus forces, are conducting a nuclear force deployment exercise, to run from today through the end of Thursday.

Yesterday Ukraine successfully tested a 250KG (550lb) “smart” glide bomb and will introduce it into daily operations in the near term. Ranges are estimated to be in the “tens of kilometers” range (20 km = 12 miles).

Ukraine has been using US JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) and the JDAM-ER (Extended Range) to strike Russian targets being the Russian line.

Ground Operations

Russian recon probes and small unit (squad minus) infiltrations continue along most of the line, with the most activity concentrated in the center, from Slovyansk to Pokrovsk, but there were few changes in the line in this area. Weather conditions have improved in the last several weeks, allowing better ISR drone operations, which has increased the overall effectiveness of FPV drone strikes, even as the new foliage improves concealment, which decreases ISR and FPV drone effectiveness. 

Both sides continue to increase FPV drone activity across the front lines and work to interdict logistics and personnel movement as they approach the lines. Drones have now become the principal “artillery” weapon, with each side launching thousands of FPV drones every day. The result is that within several miles of the front line the majority of all movements are on foot, further slowing any ground operations.

The only confirmed change in the line was is in the south, at the very western end of the line, near the Dnepr River, where imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had pushed back into the center of Stepnohirsk. This appears to be another case of Russian forces pushing into a gap, reaching the next town - Prymorske, then not moving more forces in quickly. In fact, there was some reporting over the past several weeks that Russian forces had withdrawn at least one brigade from that general area of the line and it wasn’t clear that the brigade had been replaced. Ukrainian forces then counter-attacked and pushed the Russian infiltration elements out of Prymorske and have now pushed back into Stepnohirsk.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of May 18th-May 19th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (not further identified) and 209 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 180 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure, as well as the grain export piers in Izmail, on the Danube River.

There were at least 4 civilians killed and 21 civilians wounded.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Grachonok class patrol boat (102 ft, 150 ton patrol boat) in the Caspian Sea, just south-east of Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan. The strike has not been independently confirmed.

Ukrainian drones struck the Yaroslavl oil refinery this morning (about 150 miles north-east of Moscow); an independent damage assessment has not been published yet.

In Perm, (700 miles east-north-east of Moscow), after repeated strikes on the oil refinery, it now seems that local priests (Russian Orthodox Church) held prayer services last week to pray for the protection of the city.

A drone entered Estonian airspace Tuesday, shortly after local noon, and was shot down over Lake Vortsjarv, in south-central Estonia.

The Ukrainian Foreign Office apologized and explained that Russian electronic warfare forces Ukrainian drones into the Baltic states deliberately.

During the night of May 17th-May 18th Russian forces launched at least 18 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 8 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 524 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 4 cruise missiles and 503 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad,  Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 33 civilians wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May18 May19

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 108.90 110.40

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 104.70 103.30

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.04 3.02

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.56 6.69

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 72.46 71.22

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 43.96 44.18

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 101.00 102.47

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 108.74 111.48

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 105.50 104.09

Several financial web sites noted this morning that the Russian ruble is performing well and value is up more than 10% in the past year, due both to the rise in oil prices as well as Russia negotiating some oil sales in rubles vice dollars, increasing demand for rubles among those buyers.

The US Treasury Department did not extend the exemption for sale of Russian oil, but it appears that does not include oil already at sea.

Thoughts

 

A correction on a report from yesterday: Russian sources turned over 526 vice 528 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers, and Ukraine turned over the bodies of 41 Russian soldiers. This brings the 15 month totals to 19,799 Ukrainian dead returned by Russia, 346 Russian dead returned by Ukraine.

The issue of drone overflight of the Baltics is of note. Ukrainian forces have launched long range drones from western Ukraine, targeted against sites in the St. Petersburg area. The tracks used appear to have been hugging the western border of Belarus, which would make it more difficult for Russian and Belarus air defense assets to engage them due to concerns about violating the airspace of the Baltic states.

The item of note is that Russian (and Ukrainian) electronic warfare capabilities continue to improve, particularly the ability to “intrude” into the various systems - drones and missiles - and steer them off course. As you recall, two years ago the Russians demonstrated the ability to electronically defeat the Excalibur 155MM “smart round” as well as to significantly degrade the accuracy of the HIMARS rockets. Presumably a great deal is being learned by all sides about the next generation of electronic warfare systems.

The rise of directed energy weapons (lasers and destructive microwave systems) and ever more sophisticated electronic warfare, is, I suspect, going to be as much, perhaps more, of a revolution in how battles are fought than will be the maturation of drones.

v/r pete