May 6th, 2026

Politics - Russia disregards, breaks Ukrainian ceasefire

- US sells 1500 JDAM ER to Ukraine

Combat Ops - Minor ground gains

- Drone and missile strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

78 and sunny. Mostly sunny through Friday, cloudy weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs near 80. Winds westerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

72 and mostly cloudy. Sunny Thursday and Friday, then clouds return. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

84 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny Thursday, clouding up on Friday and Saturday, rain on Sunday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs around 80 tomorrow, mid 70s on Friday, mid 60s on Saturday. Winds out of the south-west, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy posted that Russia has violated the ceasefire that he (Zelenskyy) announced beginning at midnight on the 5th and running to midnight on the 6th. Russia did not accept the ceasefire; Ukraine has not accepted the ceasefire for May 9th.

"Following yesterday’s brutal attacks on our cities and communities—Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, and others—the Russian army has continued active combat operations and terrorist shelling throughout the day. Russia’s choice is a clear rejection of peace and the preservation of lives… As of today, we confirm that the Russian side has violated the ceasefire. Based on the evening reports from our military and intelligence, we will determine our next steps.”

Zelenskyy noted 1,820 ceasefire violation.

”Ukraine has clearly stated that it will respond in kind, given the persistent Russian appeals through the media and social networks asking for a ceasefire during the Moscow parade. It is obvious to all reasonable people that a full-scale war and the daily killing of people make this a bad time for public ‘celebrations.’"

Ukraine’s ForMin Sybiha posted on X.

"Moscow has once again ignored a realistic and fair call for a cessation of hostilities, supported by other states and international organizations. This indicates that Russia rejects peace, and its false calls for a ceasefire on May 9 have nothing to do with diplomacy. Putin cares only about military parades, not human lives.”

The Pentagon has approved the sale of 1,500 JDAM-ER kits to Ukraine. JDAM-ER (Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range) is a kit that attaches to a regular bomb body, equipped with an inertial navigation system (INS) with a GPS (Global Positioning System - satellite based) navigation assist, to provide a precision strike capability “beyond 40 nm.” Accuracy (CEP) is said to be 98 feet with INS alone, and 16 feet with GPS update.

This is roughly equivalent to the kits the Russians use on their glide bombs.

Ukraine’s MinDef reported on the current stockpile of Russian missiles:

• More than 2,600 Kh-29/31/35/58/59 air-to-surface missiles
• 690 x Onyx cruise missiles
• 460 x Kalibr cruise missiles
• 350 x Kh-22/32 anti
• 230 x Zircon hypersonic missiles 
• 200 x Iskander ballistic missiles
• 50 x North Korean KN-23 missiles 
• 100 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles
• 10 x Oreshnik IRBMs

Ground Operations

Overall, little change. Successful infiltrations by Ukrainian forces into Russian controlled terrain were noted north-east of Sumy city, and into Bilytske (about 10 miles north of Pokrovsk).

Successful Russian advances were noted along the border south-east of Sumy city near the village of Ryasne, 2 miles from the Russian border, a pre-war population of just over 800.

Russian forces were also noted in Zemlyanky, a small border village (pre-war population of about 300) about 65 miles north-east of Kharkiv city.  Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Russian position.

Russian forces continued recon probes in the Kostiantinivka area and there were several successful infiltrations into the city, one of note being into the western edge of the city, which brings into play the high ground in the city - the real core of the defensive positions. Moving against the city from the east requires forcing your way up the high ground; approaching from the west is over flat terrain.

Several Russian recon probes were also noted in Ukrainian controlled terrain north-west and west of Pokrovsk, and north of the west end of Hryshne.

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact but there were no other noted changes.

It is worth noting that the largest Russian element noted in Ukrainian reporting was a “platoon” of 18 troops, operating as a single element north of Sumy city.

Air and Maritime Operations

BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) on the Kirishi refinery (south-east of St Petersburg) still is not definitive. There are reports that three of four operating cracking towers were damaged and that the plant is at least temporarily shut down. Other reports suggest that the Russians were able to bring one idle unit on line, personnel at the refinery are working on bringing another on line, and the facility is now operating at approximately 70% capacity.

The refinery was producing some 350,000 - 400,000 barrels of refined products per day, and there is at least one unit that is completely off line; the off-line unit was capable of up to 160,000 barrels per day output. Reuters suggests that repairs to this unit will take several months.

Other reports suggested that 3 cracking towers had been damaged and that the entire plant had been shut down, but the reported BDA doesn’t support that. The plant may have been temporarily shut down to fight the fire but some elements within the complex are again operating.

During the night of May 5th-May 6th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-31 missile, and 108 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 89 drones. The Kh-31 used over land is normally used as an anti-radiation missile. Ukrainian forces have had some success in shooting them down with Patriot (the Kh-31 is a Mach 3.5 missile), but when not shot down (as last night), that usually means a radar has been struck.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; power outages were reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 12 civilian killed and 38 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 towns.

Russian forces dropped more than 8,000 glide bombs in March (258+ per day) and more than 7,000 in April (233+ per day), the two highest monthly totals in the war so far.

As noted before, the use of glide bombs is significant in as much the much greater destructive effect than cruise missiles or droens which for the most part have substantially smaller warheads.

Note the transfer reported JDAM-ER kits to Ukraine.

On May 5th Ukrainian drones struck the oil refinery at Kirishi, about 50 miles south-east of St Petersburg. 

Kirishi is a large refinery, producing roughly 125 - 150 million barrels of refined product per year (350,000 - 400,000 barrels per day). There is a fire as a result of the strike but the extent of damage is not yet known.

During the night of May 4th - May 5th Russian forces struck Naftogaz (Ukraine’s national natural gas company), hitting facilities in Poltava and Kharkiv, using both ballistic missiles and strike drones. The extent of the damage is not yet known, but at least 5 workers were killed and 37 wounded.

During the night of May 4th-May 5th Russian forces launched at least 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 164 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 149 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure, to include gas and oil infrastructure in Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts; power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least 7 civilian killed and 43 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 6 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May5 May6

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 113.30 101.90

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 104.60 95.11

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.83 2.78

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.37 6.11

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 75.44 74.78

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.94 43.95

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 110.58 112.49

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 NA NA

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 103.41 103.41

Thoughts

The Ukrainian Intelligence report on Russian missile production shows a Russian Defense Industrial Base that, if not robust, has learned how to cope.

Russian forces continue to use these missiles yet the stockpiles for some of the use missiles has actually grown. Since December, by my count, Russian forces have used at least 17 Kinzhal missiles and the stockpile has grown from 50 to 100, suggesting a production rate of 15 - 16 per month, though Ukrainian intelligence says probably only 10 per month.

Iskander ballistic missile production: 60 per month

Kalibr cruise missiles production: 25 per month

Kh-35 cruise missile production: 20 per month

It is worth noting that during the night of February 20th-21st 2026 Ukrainian missiles struck the production facility in Votinsk, the manufacturing site for Kinzhal missiles, and Iskander ballistic missiles but, despite hopeful reports, production continued uninterrupted.

Worth noting that the only system that the Ukrainians have that can defeat Iskander ballistic missiles or Kinzhals aero-ballistic missiles is Patriot. Patriot missile production is currently hovering at 600 per year (50 per month).

v/r pete