May 21st, 2026

Politics - Russian nuclear exercise concludes

- Putin, Xi meetings wrap up, no pipeline deal yet

 Combat Ops - Some minor changes in the line

- Status of Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Hryshyne 

Weather

Kharkiv

85 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy through Tuesday, with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Saturday, and morning thunderstorms on Monday. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

81 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny though Tuesday, but chance of afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

85 and mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy through the middle of next week, chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the low 80s dropping to the low 70s by Monday. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

The Russian nuclear war exercise wrapped up today. There is no reporting - yet - that they launched any strategic systems.

President Xi and President Putin hailed their mutual ties, signed some lesser agreements, but it isn’t clear they have reached a final agreement on the proposed second pipeline across Siberia. Simply put, money remains the issue.

Both took a few thinly veiled shots at President Trump, Xi noted that:

“The international situation is marked by intertwined turbulence and transformation, while unilateral hegemonic currents are running rampant,” and he commented that Russia and China should improve their “comprehensive strategic coordination.”

Xi and Putin also took the opportunity in a joint statement to comment on proposed US missile defense systems:

“The parties believe that the US ‘Golden Dome’ project… poses a clear threat to strategic stability. These plans completely negate the key principle of maintaining strategic stability, which requires the inseparable interconnection of strategic offensive and strategic defensive weapons.”

The joint statement also called for an end to the war int he Arabian Gulf:

“A comprehensive cessation of war brooks no delay, restarting hostilities is even less desirable, and persisting with negotiations is particularly important.”

Ground Operations

No confirmed changes in fighting in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts.

East of the Oskil river, one item of note is that Ukrainian forces are saying that, as of yesterday, they have cleared Kupyansk. 

Russian forces moved into Kupyansk early last fall - never in more than battalion strength, and were mostly pushed out by December, when President Zelenskyy noted that there were 40 to 60 Russian troops left in the city. Reporting never went above 2 platoons since, and over the last two months the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) has repeatedly reported “less than a platoon” remains in the city, and then less than 20. But, they remained dug in until just the past few weeks when apparently they were overrun or exfiltrated; which is not clear.

Ukrainian forces reporting as of this morning notes Pokrovsk and Hryshyne are controlled by Russian forces. These towns have been in de facto Russian control for a while, and Pokrovsk was devoid of any operational value to Ukrainian forces as a personnel and logistics center almost a year ago, and had fallen to full Russian control by the middle of February this year. But small Ukrainian elements remained in Pokrovsk and Hryshyne until just recently. This now confirms that reality.

This has been the enduring story of this fight, on both sides: units get surrounded and simply hang on. In some cases the numbers have been large (roughly a brigade’s worth in Mariupol in the Azov steel plant during spring and early summer of 2022) or small - mostly small, but both sides have shown an amazing tenacity.

Reporting also suggests some more Russian gains in straightening lines in the terrain east of Slovyansk, not taken any towns, but just "filling in” between towns and closing up some would-be salients in the line.

Imagery has confirmed what has been suspected: the gray zone south-west of Hulyaipole - the area where Russian recon elements are infiltrating into Ukrainian terrain - contains to expand westward, and now reaches a point about 3 miles south-west of Hulyaipilske.

The gray zone northwest of Hulyaipole may also have expanded westward, though the reporting is a bit less clear.

Ukrainian reports suggest Ukrainian forces in the south have retaken Mala Tokmachka (just southeast of Orikhiv) and pushed through Novodnylivka (just south of Orikhiv). Reporting also suggests Ukrainian forces pushed back into southern Prymorske.

Russian forces have been attempting to move up the coast road to Prymorske (and eventually Zaporizhzhia city) as well as push through Mala Tokmachka for quite some time, but the effort appears lackadaisical, and they have several times over the last 6 - 8 months pulled a unit out and only gradually rotated in a replacement unit. Ukrainian forces, which continue to be able to move more rapidly about the battlefield, have taken advantage in both cases and now have pushed the Russians out of these positions.

The results aren’t of major consequence in redefining the front line, but are small but real victories for the Ukrainians and a setback to the Russians.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of May 20th-May 21st Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (not yet identified) and 116 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 109 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 4 civilians killed and 16 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Kstovo  (225 miles east of Moscow) on the night of the 19th, and imagery confirmed fires at the refinery. Exact damage is still undetermined.

During the night of May 19th-May 20th and the morning of May 20th, Russian forces launched two waves of strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (later identified as an Iskander ballistic missile) and 154 x strike drones launched during the night and another 84 x strike drones launched this morning into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 206 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Initial reports suggested the ballistic missile landed in Odessa, with one report suggesting the impact was in an open field about 2.5 miles south of Bilhorod Dnistrovskyi (a port city just south of Odessa); later reports claimed that missile struck residential areas in Dnipropetrovsk.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 2 civilian killed and 8 civilians wounded.

Over the past few months it appears that the Russians have settled into a pattern of 3 or 4 times per week firing 1 Iskander ballistic missile at a given target. They are rarely intercepted, suggesting they are selecting targets based on known locations of Patriot missiles, almost as if they are “sniping” with a ballistic missile. The targets continue to be power grid or logistics infrastructure.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May20 May21

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 107.20 108.30

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 100.70 101.90

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.08 3.05

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.59 6.56

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 71.27 70.86

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.15 44.24

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 101.32 96.17

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 121.28 105.04

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 103.86 101.30

Thoughts

 

Two overriding impressions of the battlefield, essentially along the entire line: drone “sniping” is the vast majority of the activity - by both sides, but the infiltration, particularly by Russian forces, continues. Much is made of the number of drones the Ukrainians are flying every day, and there is a good deal of reporting - propaganda - of how effective the Ukrainian drone hunts are. They claim 1,000 successful strikes per day (19,000 Russian casualties so far this month). That number needs to be taken with a great deal of salt. It also needs to be remembered that the Russians are flying roughly the same number of drones per day over the battlefield and claiming similar numbers. 

Two thoughts, though on the numbers: if the number is taken as total casualties (killed, severely wounded, lightly wounded, return to duty in less than 30 days), 1,000 casualties per day is probably an exaggeration by both sides but only a bit; grinding through the numbers gives daily numbers on each side, on the order of perhaps 200 killed, 200 severely wounded (never return to duty) and 400 - 450 lightly wounded. Some days will be worse than that, others better.

A second thought is this: on the ground, troops on both sides are struggling to stay out of sight of drones, and both sides are flying lots of drones, more than 11,000 per day on the Ukrainian side, per Gen. Syrskyi, and they can't use all the ones they make. They are achieving a hit rate of not quite 1 in 10, assuming the hit reports are accurate. Russian use is estimated to be less, in part because of the widespread use of fiber optic controlled drones that are more survivable, but still they are using thousands every day.

v/r pete