May 7th, 2026

Politics - Ukraine’s Umierov to Washington DC

- Zelenskyy posts objectives: humanitarian issues, diplomacy, security

- Air Defense assets to Moscow

Combat Ops - Marginal ground gains

- Strikes continue, Perm refinery hit again

Thoughts - Putin weakening???

Weather

Kharkiv

81 and sunny. Sunny tomorrow, then 3 days of clouds, rain showers Monday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs near 80. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

75 and sunny. Sunny or partly sunny through the weekend, scattered showers Sunday night. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

82 and sunny, gusting over 30. Clouds come in tonight, partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, high tomorrow in the 70s, then cooler, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Ukraine’s unilateral ceasefire came and went and was never recognized by Russian forces.

Ukraine’s chief negotiator Umierov will be in Washington this weekend for talks with President Trump and the US negotiating team.

President Zelenskyy stated 3 objectives for the talks later this weeks with President Trump:

"First, the humanitarian track. We hope it will be possible to carry out a new stage of the release of prisoners. 

“Second, the reinvigoration of the diplomatic process. We are in constant communication with the American side and know about the relevant contacts of our partners with the Russian side. We are working to ensure that this helps bring a dignified peace closer and guarantee security.”

"Third, there are several specific security-related instructions for the NSDCsecretary concerning our cooperation with the United States. Following today's meetings, I expect a detailed report.”

Zelenskyy also posted on talks with European nations:

"We are preparing the agreements reached at the highest level, as well as new steps in joint technological work. There must be more security.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry has warned the diplomatic missions present in Kyiv in the lead-up to the May 9th Victory Day celebration:

“The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly urges the authorities of your country, the leadership of your organisation, to treat this statement with the utmost responsibility and ensure the timely evacuation from the city of Kyiv of the personnel of diplomatic and other representations in connection with the inevitability of a retaliatory strike on Kyiv by Russia’s Armed Forces.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has made “aggressive and threatening statements…Several EU countries were present… None of them reprimanded the ringleader of the Kyiv regime.”

Ukrainian intelligence is reporting Russian air defense assets are being moved to the Moscow area in preparation for the May 9th Victory Day parade, which, frankly, seems prudent, from the Russian perspective.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along virtually all of the front lines, with Russian recon probes reported by every sector of the front. But confirmed gains were few, as usual.

About 60 miles north-north-west of Sumy city imagery confirmed Russian forces control the small border town of Sopych, along the Kleven River. The town had a pre-war population of 763, but has been mostly evacuated. Russian forces claimed they occupied it in early March but this is the first confirmation of Russian control.

Fighting continues in the town of Myropillia, north-east of Sumy City.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and Russian sources claim gains in this area and also along the border east of Kharkiv (north of the Oskil river), but none of this has been confirmed.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues but nothing significant to report.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues in the general area east of Slovyansk, with both sides reporting that the enemy is conducting multiple probes, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Imagery in the Kostianitnivka area confirms that Russian elements have infiltrated into the west side of that city, north of the town of Illinivka. This is of note as, as noted before, the west side of the city allows an attack on the city’s defenses over level, flat terrain. Russian recon probes also continue into the middle of the city.

Further west, north of Pokrovsk, unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukrainian forces have retaken Bilytske (about 7 miles north of Pokrovsk), and probably do have control of the western half of the town. Bilytske was a coal town, with a population of about 8,000 prior to the war. It has now been rolled over several times by both armies.

There are other unconfirmed reports of Russian gains west and north-west of Pokrovsk, and there are reports of increased Russian drone activity in these area.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery showed Ukrainian forces shelling Dobropillia (about 7 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole), which would seem to suggest that the Russians have retaken that town, and there were confirmed Russian probes into Ukrainian lines elsewhere, but the front line remains unchanged.

Further west, north and north-east of Kamyanske, Ukrainian forces are trying to regain control of the open terrain north-east of Kamaynske and appear to have moved one tree-line ahead.

Not directly in response, but as part of the Russian effort in this area, elements of a Russian airborne division have arrived in this area, having been shifted from the Sumy front.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Karakurt-class corvette, in the Caspian Sea, near its home port of Kaspiysk, Dagestan. 

The Karakurt (220 ft, 860 tons) can carry Kalibr long-range cruise missiles in 8 vertical launch cells.

Ukrainian drones struck Perm oil refinery again, no new independent damage assessments. 

Drones were also were reported over Moscow

During the night of May 6th-May 7th Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile (not identified) and 102 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 92 drones. 1 ballistic missile was successfully engaged over Dnipropetrovsk city. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 6 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 3 towns.

During the night of May 5th-May 6th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-31 missile, and 108 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 89 drones. The Kh-31 used over land is normally used as an anti-radiation missile. Ukrainian forces have had some success in shooting them down with Patriot (the Kh-31 is a Mach 3.5 missile), but when not shot down (as last night), that usually means a radar has been struck.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; power outages were reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 12 civilian killed and 38 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 4 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May6 May7

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 101.90 97.41

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 95.11 91.32

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.78 2.78

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.11 6.10

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 74.78 74.53

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.95 43.86

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 112.49 98.46

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 NA 107.27

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 103.41 97.42

Of note, gasoline prices continue to rise in Moscow and across Russia, but still not as bad as elsewhere. Yesterday’s prices in Moscow showed 95 Octane between $1.87 and $3.43 per gallon, with an average of $2.52 per gallon. The US average for premium (93 Octane) was $5.08.

Thoughts

Over the last several days there have been multiple reports in Western media on the state of mind of Tsar Putin, suggesting that he is increasingly assuming a bunker mentality, that he is increasingly paranoid, that there is growing opposition, etc. 

This all may be true, but it’s difficult to prove. Polls continue to show support for Putin at least above 70% and often above 80%. And obviously, there is the issue of people protecting themselves and giving the answer they are “supposed to give.”

In fact, poll taken in the last week showed 80% of the country support Putin and his rule, and only 15% disapprove.

But, at the same time, Russian society does, historically support the leadership and the government, and the worse things get, the more they dig in.

There are also rumors of growing unease among the elite. Yet, reports of a brewing putsch or coup of some sort is somewhat silly: if a coup hasn’t started and it’s being talked about, it’s over before it began. The only successful coup in Moscow would be one we read about after it starts. 

And it bears repeating that throughout history, through the present, very few intelligence offices have been successful in forecasting the death - loss of power - collapse of regime. Not only is it very difficult to get that level of insight, it is the sort of thing that is layered with a whole host of biases. The end result is that the overwhelming percentage of such predictions are wildly wrong.

And, it is worth asking: who would replace Putin if he were removed or died or whatever? The best answer to that question is: “Someone an awful lot like Putin.” And would he end the war? The best answer tooth is: “Maybe yes, maybe no… it’s 50 - 50. He might escalate it.” 

My own sense is that these reports are a mix of propaganda and wishful thinking. There was a similar flurry in the spring of 2023, led by a prediction by then head of Ukrainian intelligence, LTGEN Budanov (now Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff), that there was clear intelligence that Putin was on his death bed, and was about to be replaced. That didn’t quite play out…

If there is a coup brewing, we will know when it happens… 

Other than that, this all strikes me as a hope for some sort “Deus ex Machina” ending to the war. It would be nice, but, as has been said before: “the race isn’t always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”

And I know how China would bet… 

v/r pete