May 26th, 2026 Next Summary May 28th

Politics - Kremlin issues warning

- Syrskyi status question mark

Combat Ops - Little change on ground

Weather

Kharkiv

63 and partly cloudy, gusting over 30. Partly to mostly cloudy all week, a chance of isolated showers tomorrow. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs around 60. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

67 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Parlty to mostly cloudy this week, rain showers and thunderstorms possible daily. Daily lows near 40, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

66 and mostly sunny, gusting over 35. Clouding up tonight, possible showers tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday windy. Tomorrow in the 50s, then 4 days with lows near 40, highs around 50 and mostly cloudy. Winds westerly, 15-20kts, gusting higher.

Politics

Yesterday Russian ForMin Lavrov told SecState Rubio that Russia is beginning “systematic, continuous strikes on decision-making centers, command posts and defense industry sites” in Kyiv. The “defense industrial sites” appears to be focused on drone production facilities.

Lavrov later urged foreign nationals, diplomatic staff and embassy personnel to leave Kyiv.

The response from the diplomatic community is that personnel will remain in Kyiv.

Putin’s extreme mouthpiece Medvedev commented:

Well, apparently they’ve got diplomats to spare and need to trim the headcount.

Moscow earlier today commented that Russian forces will not target the Verhovna Rada or the Office of the President.

Ukraine’s ForMin Sybiha urged allies not to give in to “‌Russian blackmail.”

French Ambassador Veyssiere noted people going about their daily business in Kyiv:

“It’s a way to demonstrate resilience, and I think it’s extremely important that we, around the world, we would support that.”

The Czech Republic is amending current law to revoke temporarily protection status for anyone who has been outside the “Schengen Area (the EU) for more than 30 days and Ukrainians receiving humanitarian aid will be required to be inside the Czech Republic 16 days per month or more, effective January 1st, 2027.

Mariana Bezuhla, a member of the Verhovna Rada, in a one-on-one meeting with President Zelenskyy, asked Zelenskyy about military reform and the possible removal of Gen. Syrskyi, and reported this:

"He spoke about our constant striving for peace, about the conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the military leadership, about replacing Syrskyi, and whether there is anyone to replace him with… The answer was quite detailed and logical, but not very encouraging.”

Ground Operations

Overall, operations on the ground show few changes in the last 4 or 5 days. Recon probes and small unit infiltration and never-ending drone strikes, continue along virtually the entire line. There are some indications that some Russian elements have been withdrawn from the Sumy area and from the area just east of Kupyansk, though whether this is part of some troop rotation or shifting units to other parts of the line - or both - isn’t yet crystal clear. My guess, based mainly on inference, is that both shifting forces and rotation of units is taking place. This will probably leave the Russian line between Borova and Kupyansk slightly less capable for the near term.

The same appears to be happening in the south, from the general Orikhiv area westward to the Kamyanske area.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces continue intense drone strikes across the forward edge of battle and this continues to tie down forces. Both sides are using more fiber optic drones, with Russian fiber-optic controlled drones now reaching as 30 miles (50 kilometers) beyond the lines and have begun to strike targets in north-eastern Kharkiv City. Note that Russian fiber optic lines in large part come from China.

Ukrainian forces reports more aggressive Russian use of spring foliage and it does appear that the irregular “checkerboard” disposition of Russian and Ukrainian forces is slowly spreading westward along much of the front line. Interestingly, Russian forces still seem able to rotate troops into and out of the checkerboard no-mans land more regularly than the Ukrainian units, but why that is so isn’t clear, as both are suffering under the threat of persistent ISR and FPV drone strikes.

Ukrainian forces have noted that they are counter-attacking in the Slovyansk area, but there were no gains. There were both small Ukraine gains and Russian gains confirmed in the general Kostiantinivka, as the “checkerboard" continues to evolve. Overall, it appears that there is some further spreading of the infiltration area westward into that city.

And Russian forces made small confirmed gains in the towns north of Pokrovsk.

North of Hulyaipole (in the Verbove area) Russian recon probes continue and the infiltration checkerboard is growing; the same is true west and north-west of Hulyaipole. However, the area actually controlled by Russian forces in this area has shown very little change in May.

Further west, imagery confirmed some Ukrainian gains just south of Novodanylivka (just south of Orikhiv).

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian forces struck the Belets oil depot in Unecha, about 35 miles north of the Ukraine - Russia border, 80 miles north-east of Chernihiv.

The Ukrainian General Staff claims that since March 1st Ukrainian missiles and drones have struck 81 Russian air defense sites, and since January 1st that includes 12 x Pantsir medium range mobile SAM (surface-to-air missile) systems.

The Belarusian Security Council claims that Ukrainian drones violated Belarusian air space 116 times during the past week.

Ukrainian forces have used flight paths along Belarusian borders - particularly the western border - in strikes into the St. Petersburg area. Flying along the borders will complicate engagements by Russian and Belarusian forces.

During the night of May 25th-May 26th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 122 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. Ballistic missiles strikes were reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa.

There were at least 6 civilian wounded as a result of these strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

During the night of May 24th-May 25th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 262 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 246 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 14 civilians wounded as a result of these strikes.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May22 May26

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 104.10 100.10

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 97.55 93.92

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.00 2.96

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.49 6.37

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 71.44 71.94

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.13 44.28

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 101.30 96.32

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 103.50 104.21

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 100.28 94.41

Thoughts

 

Russia’s strike into Kyiv is - per the Kremlin - in response to the Ukrainian strike on Starobilsk during the night of May 21st-22nd, which hit a college dormitory (Russian version) or a drone unit’s command post (Ukrainian version). The Russian Foreign Office called the attack a “flagrant disregard for international humanitarian law… yet another blatant demonstration of the Nazi and terrorist nature of the Kyiv regime.” 

The building was, at one point, part of a college. Whether it was being used as such 4 days ago, or as a CP, or both, isn’t crystal clear. And I suspect that with every hour that passes determining which version of the story is correct will become increasingly more difficult. But for the Russians, they have a justification for retaliation and escalation. 

What isn’t clear is what they will actually do to escalate. They have been producing and using missiles and drones (the larger strike drones - variations of Shahed drones) pretty much at a steady pace; there aren’t a great deal of extra missiles and drones sitting around. 

One disturbing possibility would revolve around civilian casualties. Russian operations have, in 4 years, killed just short of 16,000 civilians and wounded perhaps 40,000. This number is not just from missile and drone strikes, it’s all civilian casualties. Note: this does not include the civilians killed and wounded in the Mariupol area during the first 6 months of the war (not definitively known but estimated at one point at over 20,000 killed.)

The number - 16,000 - while individually horrible, appears to be a very low number given the number of missiles and drones launched into Ukraine. Daily reported casualties from bomb and missile and drone strikes often are in single digits, and sometimes there are none reported. 

Could the numbers be much larger and are being withheld by the Ukrainian government out of worry as to what the people of Ukraine would say if they knew the real number? Might this be an effort by the Russians to deliberately push up the casualty count and change the political debate inside Ukraine, in the hope of forcing concessions?

I have no way of knowing but to a certainty, but I will repeat what I was told many Moons ago by a good friend and F-4 guy, with a bunch of time over Vietnam: Dropping bombs on people pisses them off.

Russia is now very pissed off, and Ukraine is very pissed off and about to get more pissed off.  There is going to be an escalation.

v/r pete