May 28th, 2026

Politics - US Embassy Kyiv: Embassy still Open

- EU’s Kallas: Everyone stayed except America

- Sweden: Gripens later this year

Combat Ops - Few changes on ground

- Drone strikes continue

- 3 oil tankers struck off Turkey 

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Showers on Thursday nd Friday, then partly to mostly cloudy for the following week. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25. Daily rain showers likely through next Wednesday. Daily lows in the mid 40, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

57 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 35. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, rain showers Thursday and Friday and again Tuesday. Tomorrow will be windy. Through the weekend lows will be in the low 40s, highs around 60, warming next week. Winds westerly, 15-20kts tomorrow, then 5-10kts rest of the week.

Politics

From the US Embassy in Kyiv early today:

The U.S. Embassy is open. There are no changes to our operations and reports otherwise are false. The State Department has no higher priority than the safety and security of Americans and regularly reviews the security posture of Embassy Kyiv. We reiterate our message that Americans should not travel to Ukraine for any reason due to the armed conflict

US Chargé d'Affaires Davis also commented on earlier comments from Kaja Kallas the US Embassy was evacuating from Kyiv:

"I am, in fact, here in Kyiv in person. I am absolutely delighted that we have Senator Blumenthal, that we have Representative Himes here today. They have had an incredibly active and engaged couple of days."

Earlier, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kallas responded to the Kremlin’s warning that the various embassies in Kyiv should depart Kyiv by announcing that

"This is what Russia does because it's not really gaining ground on the battlefield. So what they are doing now is really increasing the terrorist attacks because you can't really describe it in other ways. Creating fear inside the society. It hasn't worked for years, but I don't think that it's going to work now.”

"Also, what we heard from Ukraine yesterday was that all the embassies stayed except one. So that also takes courage from those embassies. But yes, all the Europeans stay. America left.”

Ukraine’s ForMin spokesman also reacted:

"The information about the departure of the US embassy is not true.”

President Zelenskyy’s spokesman noted:

“The US Embassy is open. There are no changes to our operations and reports otherwise are false. The State Department has no higher priority than the safety and security of Americans and regularly reviews the security posture of Embassy Kyiv,” the agency said in a statement.

President Zelenskyy’s Office announced that the first JAS-39 Gripen fighter aircraft will be delivered from Sweden in the next 10 months - and hopefully by the end of 2026. Sweden will transfer 16 x Gripen C/D aircraft to Ukraine, and sell 22 x Gripen E aircraft as well. 

Sweden will also provide Meteor air-to-air missiles with the aircraft. Sweden wants to sell 100 - 150 Gripens to Ukraine.

The Saab Gripen was developed int he 1980s but has undergone extensive upgrades, with the Gripen E in production since 2016. Gripen E are now being delivered with an AESA radar, IRST, a NATO standard data-link and a sensor fusion package.

Meteor is estimated to have an effe five range of 120 miles, and a “no escape” range against a maneuvering aircraft of more than 35 miles. 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces have re-entered the town of Zapsillia, about 18 miles north-east of Sumy city, about 2 miles from the Russian border.

Imagery also shows that Ukrainian forces cleared the town of Shesterivka, but this also means that Russian forces were 4 miles further south (of Vovchansk) than perviously estimated, and ostensibly retain control of the terrain between the town and the towns to the immediate north.

EAST OF THE OSKIL RIVER

Imagery confirmed that a small number of Russian troops (less than 10) remain inside Kupyansk.

Further south, Imagery showed Ukrainian forces operating north of Shykivka, in the fields south-west of the village of Zelenyi Hai, a farm village of perhaps 30 houses. 

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along the entire front but the only confirmed changes in the line are minor Russian gains in western Rodynske, north of Pokrovsk. It should be noted that a good deal of fighting is reported in this sector of the line, but few changes.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian infiltration into Dobropillia and Vozdvyzhevka (both north-east of Hulyaiplle) were confirmed in imagery, but otherwise there is little real change all across southern Ukraine.

Fighting was reported on Bilohrudyi Island, just south-west of Kherson, about 10 miles up the Dnepr from the mouth of the river.

There is regular reporting of fighting on some of these islands and along the river as far north as the Antonovskyi bridge, and occasionally further north along the river. The fighting cycles between sniping, artillery sniping, and small element raids, and a steady stream of FPV drone strikes. The Russians have made an effort to grab several of the islands in the river, and set up observation posts, and the Ukrainians then respond and push them off. At this point it appears that neither side has anything approaching the necessary forces and support elements to move across the river and take and hold any sizable pieces of terrain.

Air and Maritime Operations

Maritime drones (USVs) struck 3 oil tankers off the north coast of Turkey earlier today, all in the general area 45 - 50 miles north of the Turkish port of Turkisheli 

MV James II, Palau flag, was last reported adrift about 60 miles north-east of Istanbul. JAMES II can carry 149,000 tons of oil.

MV Altura (160,000 tons, Sierra Leone flag) and MV Velora (160,000 tons, Sierra Leone flag) were in the same area, conducting a ship-to-ship transfer when struck. No crewmen were injured in the attacks.

During the night of May 27th-May 28th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 Kinzhal ballistic missile and 147 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 138 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava and Sumy oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. The Kinzhal missile (possibly two) struck targets in Khmelnytskyi.

There were at least 3 civilians was killed and 3 civilians wounded as a result of these strikes.

RuAF tacair struck at least 7 Ukrainian towns.

During the night of May 26th-May 27th Ukrainian forces attacked Taganrog airfield and the nearby Aircraft Repair Plant 325 (at the east end of the Sea of Azov), as well as the Baltimore Air Base in Voronezh (about 300 miles south-south-east of Moscow). Fires are again reported the Tuapse Oil Refinery (about 100 miles down the coast from Kerch strait).

During the night of May 26th-May 27th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 163 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 150 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. Power outage were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were at least 1 civilian was killed and 12 civilian wounded as a result of these strikes.

During the night of May 25th-May 26th Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 122 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure. Ballistic missiles strikes were reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa.

There were at least 6 civilian wounded as a result of these strikes.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May26 May28

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 100.10 94.89

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 93.92 89.40

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 2.96 3.16

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.37 6.22

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 71.94 70.84

Hryvnia 28.6 3.03 43.93 43.45 43.90 44.28 44.26

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 96.32 88.78

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 104.21 96.25

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 94.41 93.26

Bloomberg is reporting that the average Russian refinery output for April fell to 4.69 million barrels per day (BPD). Russian refinery output averaged 6 million barrels per day in 2022, by 2024 it had fallen to 5.4 million BPD. Russia is still producing 10.8 million BPD of crude.

Thoughts

The drone wars continue. Some analysts report that Ukrainian forces have seriously disrupted Russian logistics in southern Ukraine, striking the Main Supply Route that runs from Rostov in Russia (east of the Sea of Azov) to Crimea with newer, more capable drones, disrupting resupply and troop rotation efforts.

At the same time, reports suggest resupply and troop rotation for forward Ukrainian troops have also become very difficult. This makes any real ground gains very slow and the result has been very small units moving forward at any given time. Russian troops have for more than a year been “caught on camera” sneaking forward and raising Russian flags as if to show that they have taken a position, but the fact is that small Ukrainian elements also probe forward, raise a flag, but then have been quickly forced to withdraw.

And, there is a decided lack of the hard data needed to accurately evaluate these qualitative assessments: how many troops are actually getting forward, how much ammunition, how much food and fuel? The various reports provide no hard data form either side. 

Taken together, this again makes the defining of the front line nearly impossible unless you use a very fat pencil and a very small scale map. 

Western reporting also suggests that the Russian recruiting problem is getting worse, but hard numbers are again difficult to come by and there is no data to suggest that Ukrainian forces have solved their recruiting and manpower problems.

As for EU High Commissioner Kallas, what can possibly be said that hasn’t already been said?

 

v/r pete