May 22nd, 2026

Politics - Russian Strategic Forces Exercise quick wrap-up

- SecState Rubio comments on status of negotiations 

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Air Strikes continue

- Drones in Latvia 

Weather

Kharkiv

83 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next week, a chance of isolated thunderstorms daily. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

86 and sunny. Mostly sunny though Tuesday, but chance of afternoon thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

75 and partly cloudy, gusting to 30. Partly cloudy through the middle of next week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Russian strategic forces completed their 3 day exercise. Russian government reporting noted launches of:

-1 x Yars ICBM (SS-29) from Plesetsk, presumably impacting in the Kamchatka impact area

- 1 x Sineva SLBM (SS-N-23 - normally launched from Delta IV SSBNs, (Russia has 5 Delta IVs in its fleet), also presumably impacting in the Kamchatka impact area)

Launches also included 1 or more Zircon hypersonic missile, 1 or more cruise missiles (not further identified) from TU95 Bear aircraft, 1 or more Kinzhal air launched ballistic missile, and at leasts 1 x Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar. 

Reuters reports that “virtually all” of Russia’s “major refineries” in central Russia have halted or scaled back production following the Ukrainian strike campaign of the last several months, affecting 30% of Russia’s gasoline output and 25% of diesel output.

However, this does not reflect that most Russian refineries have excess capacity nor does it reflect repair times for damage, making this a difficult problem to assess without a very detailed strike assessment laid on top of a detailed knowledge of the operations at each refinery. In short, this sounds very good but it is, unfortunately, probably not as extensive damage as it is presented.

Meanwhile, some prices, which have not changed markedly 

Gasoline in Moscow as of Monday was R68 per liter ($3.62 per gallon), up from R60 last September (up 13%)

Diesel in Moscow as of Monday R77 per liter ($4.05 per gallon), up from R74 (5%)

SecState Rubio commented on the state of peace negotiations between Russian and Ukraine:

"Despite leaks that are not true, despite stories out there about us forcing the Ukrainians to take this position or that position, which are not true. If we see an opportunity to pull together talks that are productive, not counterproductive, and that have the chance to be fruitful, we're prepared to play that role."

"But we hope that will change because that war can only end with a negotiated settlement. It will not end with a military victory by one side or the other, at least from a traditional standpoint of how military victories are defined.”

"So, we're more than happy to do that if the opportunity presents itself to have constructive and productive talks. We're also not interested in getting involved in an endless cycle of meetings that lead to nothing.”

Rubio also added, apparently just a bit frustrated:

“…if someone else would like to handle it, they should".

Ground Operations

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. However, multiple Russian recon and infiltration events were noted across the front and Russian recon elements appear to have probes as far south as the Ivolzhanske area, about 10 miles north of Sumy City.

There were multiple reports and claims of Russian gains north and east of Sumy and north of Kharkiv City, but none were no confirmed.

Fighting continues along most of the rest of the frontline but there were no confirmed changes. Ukrainian forces reporting notes increased Russian activity in the Pokrovsk are, in particular increased FPV drone activity.

Ukrainian forces reporting notes increased Russian recon probes west and north-west of Hulyaipole.

Imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces control most of Mala Tokmachka, south-east of Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of May 21st-May 22nd Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 124 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 115 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was no report of civilian casualties.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

During the night of May 21st-May 22nd Ukrainian forces again struck the Yaroslavl refinery (about 150 miles north-east of Moscow). There is no damage estimate. 

Ukrainian forces also struck the oil refinery in Samara last night (about 500 miles south-east of Moscow); imagery showed a fire at the site. Again, actual damage is unknown.

During the night of May 20th-May 21st Russian forces launched strikes into Ukrainian airspace, with at least 1 x ballistic missile (not yet identified) and 116 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 109 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There was at least 4 civilians killed and 16 civilians wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian towns.

It appears that the Ukrainian drones that crashed in Latvia several days ago didn’t simply crash in open fields, they struck oil storage tanks which luckily, were empty. Apparently, this happened several times. 

The odds that drones would “go astray” and accidentally hit oil tanks in a “neutral” country on separate occasions beggars the odds. What it does suggest is that Russian jamming and intrusion techniques continue to evolve.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May8 May21 May22

Brent      94.71   68.57 106.40 91.78 100.50 108.30 104.10

WTI     92.10   64.04 103.60 93.53 94.91 101.90 97.55

NG       3.97      3.20 3.37 2.73 2.79 3.05 3.00

Wheat     8.52  5.29 6.25 5.79 6.14 6.56 6.49

Ruble     85          77.40 78.20 78.54 74.26 70.86 71.44

Hryvnia 28.6 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.9 44.24 44.13

Urals 91.66 56.37 90.97 124.85 92.56 96.17 101.30

ESPO 94.52 59.77 84.99 103.27 105.56 105.04 103.50

Sokol 99.31 62.85 101.55 96.88 95.96 101.30 100.28

Thoughts

 

Clausewitz, in perhaps his clearest and most important statement, reminded us that all war is a struggle of will. In the end everything else is secondary. Looking at the war in Ukraine, this seems to be routinely forgotten as - particularly in the west - the press gushes over some piece of technology, especially a new drone, that appears on the battlefield, or a Russian casualty figure that has been well padded, while Ukrainian casualty figures are kept well hidden. And, as has been demonstrated too often through the years, wunderwaffe rarely produce the strategic results their advocates predict.

On Wednesday, Jim Geraghty of National Review, related comments from Witold Rodkiewicz, a senior fellow at the Russia Department of Poland’s Center for Eastern Studies, an independent foreign-policy think tank, when he asked about changes in Russia or an end to the war:

“There’s a tendency in mainstream Western media and community, there is a demand for a specific type of news. People want to have a solution, a deus ex machina. They don’t want to deal with the problem, they are tired. They are looking with hope that the Russians are going to provide a solution.”

“The situation in Russia is slowly changing, but I think we are very far from a breaking point. I think the Russian ship of state, if you can call it that, or the Russian mafia system is still on the same course. There is still a fundamental belief that they are likely to win this, a total win. . . . They look at things through the ratio of global power, and they believe that the power ratio is shifting in their favor, in the favor of their camp, namely China.”

“The Russians believe that China is the future. Russian elite used to look down on China, [but they have] learned to admire [the] Chinese elite, they think China is bound to win, they look at international relations in Darwinian terms, it’s a power struggle, to the death.”

In short, Putin thinks China is ascendant and that he (Putin) is on the winning team. At the same time, Western press receives propaganda out of Kyiv as if it were from the burning bush, believes that technology does indeed win wars, and discounts a whole host of hard facts. All of which makes me wonder if we are about to be bitten by the Stockdale Paradox… 

It’s also of note that China’s President Xi is coming off of several hard months of high oil prices and meetings with both President Trump and President Putin. For a country that currently imports 12.5 million barrels of oil per day - 75% of their oil - and that number is growing, as well as 40% of their natural gas, the lesson of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has probably not been lost on Xi. As long as Taiwan does not declare independence - and as long as Trump is in office, Xi is likely to leave Taiwan alone. 

But it shouldn't be lost on anyone that the war in Ukraine has some real benefits for China: it is a major distraction to the west, it has highlighted strains in the US alliances, it has caused a major expenditure in US weapons stockpiles, and it has allowed China to learn about various US and European weapon systems performances. It has also allowed China to develop and test a number of capabilities, via the Russians. China will continue to support Russia.

I would think that Putin, if not ebullient, is satisfied that China will do what is necessary to support Russia and keep the grind goin, despite the failure, so far, to get funding for a second pipeline.

Point is, Russia thinks it’s winning, that time is on their side. China would seem to agree… Russia’s oil industry may be suffering, but this war isn’t going to end soon… 

v/r pete