March 5th, 2026

Politics - 200 POWs exchanged

- Hungary - Ukraine: pipeline friction

Combat Ops - Little movement on ground

- Action at sea, 1 ship sunk, several naval units damaged 

Weather

Warmer weather  continues, thawing continues, mud season arriving.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy gusting to 20. Snow tonight. Cloudy Friday and Saturday, then 5 days of partly to mostly sunny weather. Daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and sunny, gusting over 20. Cloudy Friday, but then clouds will break, mostly sunny all next week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the 40s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

35 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Snow showers possible tonight.  Cloudy until Saturday morning then mostly sunny for 5 days. Daily lows for the next week at or just below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday, then 5 days with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

During the last round of talks, Russian and Ukrainian negotiating teams agreed on a. 500 for 500 POW exchange. The morning, both sides exchanged 200 POWs, the seconds exchange of 2026. The first exchange, on February 5th, inlaced 157 POWs from each side.

The issue of the Druzhba pipeline and Russian natural gas supplies to Hungary (and by extension Slovakia) continues to fester. Oil flow terminated on January 27th filling a drone strike on the pipe. Yesterday both PM Orban of Hungary and President Zelenskyy of Ukraine had comments on the situation:

PM Orban:

"We will win. And we will win by force. We have political and financial tools, and with these we will compel them, unconditionally and preferably as soon as possible, to reopen the Friendship oil pipeline.

I want to make it clear that we will win here, and we will win by force. So I will make no pact; there will be no compromise. We will defeat them. We will break the oil blockade. We will force the Ukrainian to restart deliveries. Not through business, not through agreement, not through compromise, but by force."

President Zelenskyy:

"To be honest, I wouldn't repair it [Druzhba]. This is my position. I've said this to European leaders, and I've said it to people who have called me about this issue and to the EU leadership as well – because this is Russian oil."

“”They [Russians” are killing Ukrainians, yet we're supposed to give oil to Orbán because, poor thing, he can't win the elections without this oil.”

Serhii Koretskyi, CEO of Naftogaz Group, has estimated it would take “one-and-a-half months to repair the pipeline.

Zelenskyy again:

"We can provide information that resumption may be possible within these one and a half months… But this does not mean that everything that was destroyed will be repaired, and some things can be done in parallel.”

Orban is blocking a 90 billion euro ($106 billion) loan from the EU unless Ukraine repairs the pipeline. Zelenskyy commented:

"And I have asked for this to be official as well, so that no one says we are inventing things or preventing anyone from doing anything. So we are waiting for an official request. I think it will certainly come in one format or another.”

Followed with this comment:

"We hope that a certain person in the European Union will not block the €90 billion, or the first tranche from the €90 billion, and our defenders will have weapons. Otherwise, we will give that person's address to our Armed Forces, to our lads, so they can call him on the phone and speak to him in their own language."

President Putin of Russia meanwhile commented on simply ending all gas sales to Europe.

"They plan to introduce restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas, including liquefied, in a month, and in a year, in 2027, new restrictions, up to a complete ban. And now other markets are opening. And, perhaps, it is more profitable for us to stop supplies to the European market right now. Go to those markets that are opening and gain a foothold there… This is not a decision yet, but thoughts out loud.”

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines in either area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and east and north-east of Borova, but there were no confirmed changes tot eh front lines.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

There were no changes in the lines in and around Kostiantinivka.

Further west, imagery confirmed Russian gains east of Sofiivka, and Russian forces appear to be pushing slowly northward along the small Poltavka River and the string of reservoirs and ponds on that river. This line will become very difficult very soon, as the weather continues above freezing.

Fighting continues west and north-west of Pokrovsk, as Russian forces continue to probe into Hryshyne, and are now operating from the north, east and south side of the town, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed that a Ukrainian probe has pushed eastward along the T0814 roadway, past Zaliznychne and reached Hulyaipole. It isn’t clear what sized element made this raid, but it is unreported on some sites and noted on others, suggesting it is a small element.

Imagery confirmed multiple Russian probes west of Zaliznychne and in Rizdvyanka, but it is isn’t clear whether there were any changes in the lines.

There were multiple reports of Russian attacks along the lines westward to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 4th-March 5th Russian forces launched at least 155 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 136 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv and Odessa, oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

No Civilian casualties reported

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

During the night of March 3rd-March 4th Russian forces launched at least 3 x ballistic missiles (type not identified) and 149 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 129 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts; ballistic missiles struck in Dnipro city, Voznesensk, Mykolaiv, and in southern Odessa.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

Between March 1st and March 4th Russian forces have conducted 18 strikes on Ukrainian rail, damaging 17 stock cars and 34 other pieces of repair equipment.

A Russian LNG tanker - Arctic Metagaz, out of Murmansk, was struck by two unmanned surface vessels (USV) in international waters about 150 south-east of Cape Passero, Malta, 250 miles north-east of Tripoli. and has since sunk. The tanker was reportedly headed to Port Said, Egypt for offloading, but Egyptian authorities deny this. The cargo consisted of 62,000 tons of LNG. 

All 30 crew members have been evacuated from the ship. The USVs were reportedly launched from Libya.

During the night of March 1st-March 2nd Ukrainian drones struck the Admiral Grgorivich class frigate Admiral Essen, in Novorossiysk harbor, as well as an Kvamarin class patrol boat, a Nastya class minesweeper and two Grisha V class ASW corvettes.

The strike reportedly involved more than 200 drones.

Earlier today Russian drones struck a Panamanian flagged ship departing Chornomorsk (just south of Odessa), outbound with a load of corn. Three crew members were injured and have been evacuated. The ship, which appears to be (they aren’t releasing the name) “Sapphire X,” is currently anchored off Chornomorsk but is now scheduled to put into Romania, apparently for repairs.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar4 Mar5

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 81.28 83.68

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 74.24 77.43

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.95 2.96

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.67 5.73

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.78 78.63

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.90 43.63

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 68.83 70.31

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 72.90 72.90

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 73.87 73.78

Note the ESPO and Sokol prices, which are Eastern Asia markets.

Jun 16, 2025 was the last time Urals oil was above 70.

Thoughts

As is evident, ground operations have slowed down a great deal, and most, if not all of that reduction in activity a result of the start of the thaw. It will now be anywhere for 6 weeks (last week or two of April) to as late as late May before the ground is solid enough for movement off the roads, weather dependent.

In the interim, expect both sides will engage in drone strikes, both deep strikes and in the use of FPV drones for strikes immediately behind the front line.

Russia will benefit economically as long as the Strait of Hormuz is constricted by war and high insurance rates. Even after the Strait returns to normal operations, China still must compensate for the 1.3 - 1.4 million barrels per day it was buying (at bargain prices) from Iran. 

Whether Russia benefits from China feeling squeezed because it - China - has one less friend in the world remains to be seen. 

As for President Zelenskyy’s comment about his soldiers making a call on PM Orban seems an odd way to make friends… 

v/r pete