What's It All About?

To listen to some of the ads on TV for the various politicians it would seem that we have two men arguing about the same thing, only who is more committed to doing so:  Cut the deficit, cut unemployment, create jobs, grow the economy, reduce taxes, defend the nation, etc., etc., etc.  Both insist that they are the ones who will do it, while insisting that the other guy won’t.  Recently, President Obama has even come out a statement asserting that the problem ‘can’t be fixed from the inside,’ that it can ‘only be fixed from the outside.’

What does he mean by ‘insider?’  Well, he didn’t really elaborate, but the implication was a ‘politico,’ one of those people who ‘live and breath the Washington DC air,’ who have spent their entire lives in politics and who view everything through the lens of politics.

This seems a little odd for someone – President Obama - who has been an insider since he reached law school, and has been the DC ‘fast mover’ since he was the featured speaker at the Democratic National Convention in 2004.

But let’s look at it from another perspective.  People have been complaining about the deficit for many years (though, granted it hasn’t been this extreme relative to GDP since World War II), people have been complaining about the growth in entitlement programs (again, it is worse now), people have been complaining about the complexity of the tax code and the seemingly glaring inconsistencies.  And so on and so forth.  But no one does anything about it.  Even when President Obama had overwhelming majorities for two years in both the House and Senate, not only did he not do anything about it, he didn’t even pass complete budgets for those years.  (In fact, in January, win or lose, he will become the first President in history to fail to ever pass a complete budget; another historical first, along with the downgrading of US credit ratings.)

Why, despite all the talk, is nothing being done?  Simply because all of this is, at least to those in power, is theater.  This election, perhaps more than any in recent memory, is about power.  The simple truth is that the President, and many of the leaders in the Democratic Party, is more concerned with power than with any of the problems facing the US.  Simply put, if they were asked a simple either - or question, would you trade your position in office for an elimination of the budget deficit, they would answer no.

The root of this whole mess however is that this election isn't about Republicans and Democrats, its not about foreign policy or tax policy or entitlements; this election is about power, and about the ruling clique holding power - an amorphous association of career politicians, main stream media, academia, a major slice of bureaucrats, and certain elements of the private sector that have long been in cahoots with the government (think GM, elements of the Banking and Housing industries, some union leadership, for example).  The split on the polls are laughable, with poll after poll samples so badly skewed that most of them represent no real data at all.  If President Obama wins in November - and I don't believe he will - it will only prove that those in power can manipulate the organs of government to maintain control - a fact we already knew.  Few if any of the senior members of the Federal Bureaucracy really care if there is a debt problem or a default or a ten year recession or a global depression.  What they care about is whether they maintain, and if possible increase their span of power.  

Where does that leave us?  First, we need to vote in November, vote to remove the incumbent from the White House, and to turn over control of the Senate.  Then we need to hold the Republicans accountable.  And vote them out in 4 years if they fail to improve the state of the nation.  But, more importantly, we find ourselves in a position that is really no different then where most countries have found themselves from time to time throughout history.  What is does beg is the question: What do we really do?  It suggests that there needs to be a few amendments to the Constitution to wrest more power from the 3 branches (and maybe also bringing the '4th branch' (the Federal Reserve) under some sort of control that is responsive to the citizenry.  We must limit the power of the government to tax, limit the power to spend, limit the power to pass eternal legislation, and finally limit the power of the executive to create de facto legislation under the title of ‘regulations.’  Actually, all of that is possible.  But WE THE PEOPLE will have to do it, because the guys in power don’t want to let go.

Some Common Sense on Spending...

Submitted into the Congressional Record, Fall 1949, by Congressman Clarence J. Brown, R - Ohio, who claimed that it had been written by "a prominent Georgia Democrat" (thanks to JB):

DEMOCRATIC DIALOG

Father, must I go to work?
    No, my lucky son.
We're living now on Easy Street
    On dough from Washington.

We've left it up to Uncle Sam,
    So don't get exercised.
Nobody has to give a damn-
    We've all been subsidized.

But if Sam treats us all so well
    And feeds us milk and honey,
Please, daddy, tell me what the hell
    He's going to use for money?

Don't worry, bub, there's not a hitch
    In this here noble plan-
He simply soaks the filthy rich
    And helps the common man.

But, father, won't there come a time
    When they run out of cash
And we have left them not a dime
    When things will go to smash?

My faith in you is shrinking, son,
    You  nosy little brat;
You do too damn much thinking, son,
    To be a Democrat.

Libya, Egypt, Yemen, et al

We begin by noting the brutal murders of the Ambassador and three other Americans – staff and support for the Embassy.  These acts, and the storming of the embassies in several other countries, are intolerable and unless the governments of the respective countries condemn them immediately, in the strongest possible terms, and then take every possible step to round up those responsible, the US should take steps to alter the relationship between the US and that country (note: the other guy already has).  It is little solace to their families and friends that the dead were heroic and noble.  It is also of little note in trying to determine what happens next.  But several points need to be made.

First, and it must be said: This was predicted.  Everyone seems to willfully forget that this kind of behavior had been quite accurately forecast, and equally ignored by the President and the Secretary of State.  Both government officials and others, writing publicly in blogs and journals (including this author), noted over the past 2 years that: 1) we did not have a coherent policy in the Arab world; 2) providing moral and military support to rebels without knowing who they were was likely to recoil against us; 3) complicity in the overthrow of an ally would in no way endear us to those who led the overthrow; 4) wishful thinking as to the future of these various countries was a miserable substitute for a meaningful plan that had real ‘teeth’ in it; and finally, the Muslim Brotherhood may be many things, but it most assuredly is not a friend of the US, and would sooner or later get around to attacking US interests.  The administration has failed on these issues.  Saying otherwise is a lie.  When several US embassies have been overrun, when the US flag is torn down and al Qaeda’s flag is flying over a US embassy, when an Ambassador is killed inside a US Consulate – you have lost that round Mr. President.  That is YOUR failure.

Second, it should come as no surprise to any sentient being that September 11^th is a day when the US embassies ought to be not only aware of what is happening around them, but that also a good day to take extra precautions and a good day to have some prepared responses – both from an information management perspective and a security perspective.  The administration failed on this issue.

Third, while there was clearly a sense that things might happen on the 11^th, the intelligence community apparently failed to penetrate the Muslim Brotherhood sufficiently to learn of the plans to coordinate demonstrations.  This is not a failure of case officers; this is a failure of the senior personnel who set the guidance for the various agency offices around the world.  Is the Muslim Brotherhood on the list of organizations of interest to the intelligence community?  Certainly.  But it is now also clear that the level of effort/acceptable level of risk calculus failed.

There is an old saw that goes: ‘Once accident, twice coincident, three times enemy action.’

Simply put, anyone who believes that it is simply coincidence that independent riots in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Sudan and elsewhere sprang up within 24 hours of each other, all directed at the US Embassies is beyond naïve.  But again, this is not ‘news’ to many in the intelligence community.  There has been clear concern about this type of action for years.  But the question is this: was enough done to ensure that the US had reliable sources inside the Muslim Brotherhood and other like minded organizations who could keep our people informed as planning developed for this kind of operation?  Clearly, the answer is no.  The fact that we are holding this conversation is proof. 

But the question is why?  Are our case officers incapable of finding sources who could penetrate these organizations?  To the contrary, the facts have shown that they can.  It can be difficult, but it can be done.  So where was the failure?  There can only be one answer: failure of leadership: in the intelligence community, in the State Department and particularly in the Oval Office. In the Intelligence Community it is a combination of not enough case officers, not aggressive enough leadership, risk averse leadership, and a desire among the very senior members of the intelligence community to view certain elements through politically correct lenses all contributed to this current problem.  And all of these issues are, in the end, a failure of leadership – the leadership of the IC and a failure of policy at the very highest levels of government. 

In the State Department it is a willful disregard of the simple truth that many people not only disagree with the US, they hate us and want to do evil things to the US. The Administration can seek to point fingers, and can assign blame to a wide range of forces – including I am sure (somehow) the last President, but the fact remains that multiple US embassies were unprepared for assault, 4 good people are dead, several US embassies were at least for a short time overrun, US interests have been damaged, and the US strategic message has been badly mauled by the public image of rioters on top of embassies, US flags being burned, another flag flying on our flag poles, and our Ambassador being dragged through the streets.

But finally, this is the President’s fault.  While the President plays golf, produces campaign ads, and appears on talk shows, he fritters away any sense that the rest of the world needs to take seriously the President of the United States.  Mr. Obama, as much as you believe it is about you, it isn’t.  Someday, hopefully soon, you will no longer be the President.  But there will still be a president.  That office is more important than you, as hard as it is for you to grasp that.  You need to take seriously the office and your responsibilities.  That means you are not supposed to be high-fiving talk show hosts or practicing your one-liners, but trying to lead.  You have shown yourself to the mob as frivolous and vacillating and weak.  That is what they will read out of this – weakness.  And weakness does not lead to peace, it leads to violence and war.  We already have seen the violence start – Thank you, Mr. President, Good Job.

This disaster is yours – no one else did this.  You have had more than 3 years to establish your foreign policy and it is now close to a burning wreck.  And your answer is to go to Vegas, and to have your minions attack your opponent because he pointed out that the US response to this disaster was week.

This is a foreign policy disaster of high order.  It has the possibility of getting worse.  People should be fired, policies need to be changed, and You, Mr. President need to show the world that you are going to start taking seriously all of your duties, not just campaigning and doing the things you like.