Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Next Four Years - And Beyond

To those who read my blog a hearty thank you and an apology.  I have been busy with several issues, to include writing a book, and have not been diligent in finishing a number of items that I started.  Further, one might think that in the run-up to an election as significant as this one seems to be that it would behoove me to write more.  But, frankly, there are many who are more capable of writing about such things and I leave it to them.

I believe Governor Romney will win this election, though I encourage all his supporters to get out and vote – there is no such thing as a sure thing.  I hope the Governor wins the election and I believe he will be a good president – better than average.

That being said, as I said to a very pleasant fellow who came by the other day and encouraged me to vote, this election is not the end, it is the beginning.  We cannot and should not even try to delude ourselves that is it, to steal Churchill’s phrase, ‘the end of the beginning.’  No, this is truly the very beginning.

There is so much that needs to be done.  The list is long and I will only mention the key items:

We must institute steps that lead to a balanced budget.  The current plan – the one endorsed by President Obama (for which he claims to have reduced the deficit by $4 trillion) – looks forward 10 years and leaves the U.S. with a national debt of $24 trillion (down from a projected $28 trillion – hence the ‘reduction.’)  That means 10 more years of deficits greater than $500 billion each year.  We need to reduce that annual deficit to zero and beyond – the government needs to be running small surpluses.

We need to ‘enshrine’ those surpluses.  The Federal Government has shown beyond any shadow of doubt that it is a terrible steward of the people’s wealth and cannot be trusted with the power of raising debt.  The Constitution should be amended to preclude the use of debt in all but Congressionally recognized national emergencies.

Entitlements need to be reduced.  As painful as that will be, the simple numbers don’t lie: over the next 75 years the U.S. government is scheduled to pay out $211 trillion (yes, $211 trillion) in entitlements.  Remember, that number is over and above all routine government spending (Defense, highways, national parks and all of that).  That number is unsustainable.  There are two steps that need to be taken to survive this problem as a nation: we need robust economic growth – greater than 3% per year real growth (over and above inflation), and we need to reduce unemployment to less than 4% while increasing labor participation to greater than 65%.  In short, we need to create a minimum of 2.5 million new jobs every year, for at least the next 40 years – then the number per year has to increase.  To put that in perspective, between 2008 and today, the net job growth in the US is around 1 million jobs – so we are 9 million short for the last 4 years.  There are many incredibly painful interconnected issues: tax codes, healthcare codes, regulation of businesses – that will bear directly in whether we can sustain real economic growth.  Congress will have its work cut out for it.

We need to reduce the cost of energy.  Raw, basic energy is the driver of every element of the economy – and the cheaper it is, the more you can do.  We need cheaper electricity, and we need cheaper transportation.  We need to invest in oil, gas, coal, nuclear power, as well as any and all ‘renewables’ on an even playing field – economic viability is the only metric we should use.

The world, despite all the hopes of man, remains a dangerous place, and despite some recent reporting, is probably going to get more dangerous as certain technologies proliferate.  We need to be safe and we need to protect our interests and those of our allies and true friends.

Four huge issues: rein in government, spur the economy and set it on a path of long-term and sustained growth, move to energy independence, and protect the nation.  It can be done.  It will be a long and often difficult journey, and we are only – hopefully – beginning on Tuesday.  We must recognize that, after we ‘pop the champagne’ this week, the real work is just beginning.

Still, every journey begins with a single step, and Tuesday, we take that first step.

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