A Nuclear North Korea: Now What?

September 10th, 2016

North Korea detonated a bomb September 9^th.

If you haven’t been following closely, during the past year the North has conducted multiple missile tests – short, medium and long-range missiles, and also tested a sea-launched ballistic missile. And last Friday they detonated a 10 – 30 kiloton weapon (that is, 10 – 30 thousand tons of TNT).

(The test was underground; because of the limits of seismology, while it can be determined with a high degree of certainty that it was a man-made event, determining the actual size of the explosion is limited by knowledge of the specific geology where the explosion took place, hence the estimate: at least 10 kilotons, but probably not more than 30 kilotons. For reference, the bombs used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 kt and 20 kt, respectively.)

How did we get here?

For decades the US has been in on-again, off-again talks with Russia, China, the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan vis-à-vis North Korea and, among other things, how to keep them from developing nuclear weapons. China and Russia have direct contact with North Korea so there was always communication with the North.

Following revelations of a substantial North Korean nuclear weapons program in the early 1990s, the Clinton Administration entered into negotiations to try to end the North’s development program. This resulted in an agreement: the North Korean – US ‘Agreed Framework,’ signed in October 1994 to end the weapons program, and build 2 nuclear power stations in North Korea.

The agreement broke down in 2002 when we accused North Korea of continuing uranium enrichment, violating the agreement. The North countered that the US had no definitive proof. In December 2003 all work ceased on the reactors. Talks resumed and by 2005 some in the State Department were hopeful that the North would adhere to the agreement.

That didn’t quite play out. And whatever the interim truth, the recent detonation shows that they in fact have a successful weapon program.

Previously, the US, Japan and the ROK would meet with Russia and China and they would use ‘carrots and sticks’ (‘carrots’ mainly consisting of fuel and food, sticks mainly being targeted sanctions on bank accounts and the moving of money into and out of North Korea) to get North Korea ‘back in the box.’

That has unraveled. Sanctions – on paper – are now very tight. But there seems to be a reasonable conclusion that China is not really enforcing the sanctions. And, there is informed speculation that China has assisted in at least elements of the nuclear weapon and missile programs.

Why would China support the North? Because, despite rhetoric otherwise, the last thing China wants is a unified Korea. A unified Korea would leave a true capitalist state, and a US ally, on China’s border. That’s clearly not in China’s national interest. In fact, such an outcome is unacceptable to China. Nor can they let North Korea fall apart. So, whatever is necessary to sustain the North – and prevent unification, is justifiable.

How does a nuclear North Korea help China? Simply, nuclear weapons make North Korea ‘too dangerous to fail.’ Without nuclear weapons the world could, arguably, let the North collapse economically and politically: ‘let China and the ROK fix it.’ It would be ugly, but it could happen.

Adding nuclear weapons into the mix changes the equation; it is arguably too dangerous to let a nation fail when armed with nuclear weapons. So, with nuclear weapons, North Korea must be ‘saved,’ and China need not worry about a unified Korea.

China will, however, use this situation to ‘stir the pot’ and call for steps to reduce tensions, which they will equate to reducing US presence in Korea and the Western Pacific, while continuing calls for the US to remove ballistic missile defense systems from the region.

What should the US do?

The US needs to recognize the primary issue isn’t North Korea; the primary issue is China. North Korea survives, and North Korea has a viable ballistic missile force and a nuclear weapons program because, in the end, China has aided and abetted the programs and sustained North Korea’s ruling regime.

China is looking after what it perceives as its interests.

It’s time the US does the same. There are many steps to take, to include modernizing our deterrence forces, and strengthening our missile defense capabilities. But we need to begin by recognizing that China’s interests clearly are not ours.