Our Unraveling Security

 October 30th, 2016

Shia radicals launch missiles at a US Navy destroyer, missiles provided by Iran, probably made in China.

North Korea continues development of a nuclear weapon and an ICBM.

Russia bombs insurgents in Syria; Russian naval forces return to the Mediterranean; Russian intelligence personnel return to Cuba.

China pressures Japan on islands in the East China Sea.

In the midst of even a routine presidential election, it can be difficult to keep up with what is happening elsewhere. This year, well… Yet, there are things happening around the world that we not only should be watching, we might want to consider before we vote.

The Syrian civil war grinds on, with Russian forces providing substantial support to President Assad. Russian aircraft have been giving the city of Aleppo a working over, despite protests from the international community, and it’s clear Russia is going to insure Assad remains in power. Turkey, a NATO ally, has read the writing on the wall and is talking with the Russians. In Iraq, the long awaited and much publicized offensive against ISIS forces in Mosul is pressing forward, with US help. Mosul will be retaken and ISIS pushed out, but the city will suffer a great deal. Iraq will be the nominal winner and ISIS will shrink back towards Syria.

The real winners will be Russia, Iran and Syria. The Shia-leaning government of Iraq, and the Iraqi Shia militias that are found on the battlefields of northern Iraq, will not become US allies when Mosul is cleared of ISIS. Iran’s position will likely grow stronger and the US position will grow weaker.

In Yemen, the Houthi insurgency, backed by Iran, continues fighting for a radical Shia state. The Saudi – UAE – Yemeni coalition has bogged down, while Iran provides advanced weapons to the Houthis; there’s little indication the coalition has a comprehensive strategy that will produce anything approaching victory.

The Afghanistan war grinds on. Technically, the US is no longer at war there. The Taliban, however, are. Nothing suggests this is going to end soon. Or well.

In the South China Sea, Chinese muscle flexing increases every week, with more aggressive naval patrols; and more aggressive aerial patrols near Japanese islands in the East China Sea; and more aggressive political and economic diplomacy among former US allies. The Philippines moves steadily in the direction of China, Thailand too. Meanwhile, North Korea continues testing its missile force, and continues its nuclear weapon development program. It’s only a matter of time before they have a nuclear weapon and a missile capable of carrying it to the US.

In Europe, Russia continues flexing its muscles. Is it going to attack into Europe? Probably not. But it doesn’t need to, everyone in Europe knows “the score.” Russia controls the oil and gas pipelines that lead to Europe. And Russia, with its once-more-robust alliance with Syria, sits astride any future pipeline from the Middle East to Europe. A recent well-publicized study by the Rand Institute noted that in any conventional Russian assault into Eastern Europe the fighting would be over before the US could move any significant forces into theater.

So?

First, much of what we’re witnessing is other countries flowing into the vacuum left by the US as it has backed out of the Middle East, Asia and Europe. The Obama – Clinton – Kerry legacy is that they’ve accentuated and highlighted the power vacuum. Their decisions have consequences and we’ll be paying for them for years to come.

Second, the problems associated with all this muscle-flexing are just starting. We can anticipate more problems; for example, between India and Pakistan (both with substantial nuclear arsenals), as well as a whole host of possibilities as China, Japan and North and South Korea confront each other in the next few years. The possibility of Japan and South Korea deciding that, absent a clear US nuclear umbrella they will need their own nuclear arsenals is now, incredibly, a real possibility.

Third, any hope that Mrs. Clinton will somehow reverse what she helped engineer is ludicrous.

The Obama administration (and the progressives) has gotten what it wanted; the administration spent 8 years focused on internal political maneuvering and expansion of entitlement programs, with no real focus on the broader aspects of US national security. Now, the global security picture is unraveling and the next president must try to restore some stability. We’ll be living with legacy for a long time to come.