Ukraine: Time for a Ceasefire?

In an interesting development the Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Army (the Ukrainian equivalent to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) released an essay last week, just as an interview was published in The Economist. In the essay and interview it was reported that Gen Zaluzhnyi said the war was "at a stalemate." That was later corrected to say that the war was at "a dead end." That was later corrected to say there there was a “technological dead end.”

Whatever he actually said (I don’t read Ukrainian) it was close enough  to “stalemate” that President Zelenskyy felt the need to make a statement that the war was “not at a stalemate,” and added that “Ukraine has no right to even think about giving up,” and insisted there are no secret negotiations.

Some well known analysts also issued an explanation of the General’s paper that sought to explain that what the General really discussing was how to win the war. In a sense he did; Zaluzhnyi talked about the need for a host of improvements, to include:

Modern command and control that has the ability to respond across the entire county while operating in a hostile cyber warfare environment.

Gaining air superiority - in particular improved drones, flooding Russian air defenses, neutralizing Russian attack drones, better anti-drone capabilities, but this also includes manned aircraft (150 F-16s) and surface to air missiles. There has been repeated talk about the ability to defend the entire country from drones and cruise missiles. That would require a nation-wide integrated air defense.

He also mentioned: 

More and better mine clearing as well as integration with drones to allow clearing mine fields while concealed

More effective counter-battery fire - more and better reconnaissance drones, more assets, more artillery, and better integration of artillery with the reconnaissance and command and control

Creating and training reserve forces - a nationwide registry, training facilities to increase the quantity and quality of reserve training

Improving Electronic Warfare - employing complex EW across the front, and a nationwide integrated command and control capability

There is more, to include getting ahead of and staying ahead of Russia in establishing and maintaining situational awareness, and establishing a single, integrated information environment.

He also called on Ukraine to develop its own arms industry.

These are all worthy goals. The problem is that none of them are easy or cheap. Ukraine had a pre-war defense budget of less than $4.5 billion, with total national security spending (to include intelligence and national police) totaling less that $7.5 billion. 

Then consider that a single Patriot battery costs, per Wikipedia, about $1 billion for the US. Exports are more expensive. How many batteries will they need to cover the major cities and industrial facilities (power plants) across Ukraine?

Said differently, the force described above cannot be afforded by Ukraine; NATO and the US would need to pay for it, and sustain it.

And, even with the equipment on hand, the manpower problem is serious. Ukraine has a shrinking population, one that is likely to shrink even more as the war drags on. And the military he describes is one that will require a large cadre of professionals plus a constant churn of reservists. And professional soldiers are expensive to create both in time and money.

He finished with a statement that there’s need for technological breakthroughs - which sounds a lot like “wonder weapons.” 

But Gen Zaluzhnyi isn't stupid, he knows all this; all the pieces that he discussed have been discussed before in the press and by various figures in the Ukrainian government. So, what was the point?

As one of my smart correspondents noted: this is Zaluzhnyi subtly telling the chain of command - President Zelensky and the senior civilians - that the country is hurting and that the country not only may not have enough to win, but it may not have enough to sustain a stalemate.

None of us knows the real casualty counts on either side, both sides have striven mightily to hide their own casualties while spreading rumors about the other side. But there are snippets of data which suggest that the total number of casualties is staggering, with each side losing well over 100,000 killed in action and perhaps 400,000 wounded. It’s worth mentioning that there are some estimates that triple each of those numbers.

Another one of my smart correspondents noted a strange echo from the past: as World War I dragged on, the political leadership in London and Paris began to develop skepticism about the course of the war, while the generals kept saying that “this is not time to stop, we’re going to break through on the next push.” Now the roles might be reversed, but the grind on the front line appears to be very similar.

So, maybe there are no secret negotiations, as President Zelensky insists. But perhaps Gen, Zaluzhnyi is telling him that there should be.