October 11th, 2024 Navy Birthday, October 13th, 1775

Next Summary Monday

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Weather

Kharkiv

68 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy for the next week rain on Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

69 and clear. Mostly cloudy on Saturday, followed by two days of rain, rainfall may be significant. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

61 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow, cloudy Sunday, then more rain on Monday and Tuesday. Daily highs will be in the low 50s, lows in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces had confirmed gains south-east of Korenevo and more - unconfirmed - gains south of Korenevo, and Russian forces claimed gains near Novaya Sorochina - due north of Subzha about 12 miles.

North of Kharkiv

        Fighting continued along the perimeters of both Russian controlled pockets but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

North of the Donets

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, with some Russian gains a few miles east and south-east of Kupyansk, and a good deal of fighting taking place north-west of Kreminna and also north of Terny, near the Zherebets River.

Bakhmut

North and north-east of Bakhmut reporting suggests that Russian forces either did not gain control of Verkhnokamyanske (east of Siversk) or Ukrainian forces retook parts of it in the last few days, as well as some terrain north of Siversk.      

West of Bakhmut, the Russian attack on Chasiv Yar continues, and Russian forces made small gains to the north, the east and south-east of Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

  West of Horlivka saw both Russian and Ukrainian forces active, with Ukrainian forces pushing back on the Russian advance into Torestk, retaking a block in the center of the town. The Toretsk fight has now fully evolved into what we have seen repeatedly, grinding street-to-street, house-to-house fighting that involves every weapon available, the destruction of nearly every building, and in the end, squads of infantry clearing every building, room to room.

Russian forces also appear to have made small gains immediately to the north-east and south-west of Torestk.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to push west from both north and south of Selydove, while also grinding slowly westward from positions just east of Selydove. At the same time Russian forces in a half dozen small towns due east of Pokrovsk continue to attack, and probably made incremental gains to the west. Pro-Ukrainian reporting continues to reflect Russian elements operating west of the E50 roadway, due south of Pokrovsk about 4 miles.

Imagery confirms that Russia controls - and has controlled for at least several days - the area around Zhelanne Pershe, south-east of Ukrainske. Controlling this terrain, and considering the reports - or lack of reports - of activity further east from the area suggests Ukrainian forces have already withdrawn from the pocket between that town and Nevelske, south of the Pokrovsk salient. This is consistent with other Russian operations along the eastern front over the last 18 months, where salients have not been allowed to persist, the Russians shifting forces as necessary to close up small pockets before they can be exploited by the Ukrainians, as well as keeping lines more or less straight, minimizing the number of troops needed to maintain security along the front.

West of Donetsk City Russian forces contain to push westward and north-westward from the Hostre - Heorhivka area. 

South-west of Donetsk City Russian forces continued to attack to the west along much of the front lines that runs from Vuhledar to Marinka. Russian reports noted ground gained west of Vodyane but that has not been confirmed. Fighting was also reported in the vicinity of Zolota Nyva, west of Vuhledar.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Russian forces continued operations across southern Ukraine, and “heavy fighting” continues near Kamyanske, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Ukrainian military spokesman report a buildup of Russian forces near Robotyne.

Air Operations 

Early this morning Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 Kh-31P Anti Radiation Missile (ARM) and 66 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 29 drones, and that 31 drones were “lost” (defeated by electronic warfare), spread over 9 oblasts.

Later reports note that 2 ballistic missiles truck Odessa, killing at least 8.

A missile (or drone) was also reported striking a building in Cherkasy.

Russian strikes on the night 9-10 October consisted of 2 x Iskander Ballistic missiles, 3 x S-300 ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-31P ARM, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 62 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, The missiles and the remaining drones struck power grid related infrastructure in 3 oblasts.

Officials with Odessa Oblast report that in strikes on the 5th and the 9th, Russian missiles struck three ships in or near port Odessa, loading grain: a Panamanian flag ship, a Palau flag ship and a St Kitts and Nevis flag ship. Russia sources later claimed the ships were carrying weapons, but there is no evidence that is so. 

The ships all sustained damage, the ship from Palau had 1 crewman killed and 5 wounded, but none sank.

A Ukrainian drone strike into Krasnodar Krai on the 9th hit several warehouses that reportedly held 400 Shahed drones. How many drones were present at the time of the strike and how many destroyed is not known.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct10 Oct11

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 78.19 79.43

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 74.73 75.96

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.65 2.66

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.99 6.04

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.60 96.11

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.26 41.17

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 70.29 70.29

ESPO       65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 69.97 71.40

Thoughts 

Several interesting reports out in the last 24 hours, to include a report from an anonymous DOD official (are there any other kind?) that Russian casualties now exceed 600,000 (killed and wounded - which would break to something like 125,000 KIA and 475,000 WIA), and that the month of the September was the worst month of the war for Russia.

This is essentially in line with Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reporting and substantially exceeds other estimates. In particular, the Mediazone reports, which are certain the most compressive public estimates suggest Russia casualties are about 450,000 (roughly 100,000 KIA and 350,000 WIA).

At the same time, President Zelenskyy’s key advisor, Mykhailo Podoliak in an interview with Die Welt, noted the Russian purchase of ammunition from North Korea as a sign that Russian exhaustion is “already obvious.”

Other reports in the past week note the increasing number of Russian troops who arrive at the front line with no training, the number of Russian vehicles that have been lost, the shoddy workmanship in Russian weapons, and the overall poor quality of Russian leadership.

A few thoughts.

First, Per the Western media and Ukrainian government, the Russian army is poorly led, poorly fed, poorly trained and poorly armed force. But it’s winning on the battle field. What does that say about the army they are fighting?

Second, whatever Russian casualties are, Ukrainian casualties are within a few percentage points of Russias. President Zelenskyy stated there had been 31,000 KIA as of last fall some time. A member of the Verkhovna Rada noted last week that in the previous 24 months there had been 38,000 KIA. Average those numbers out over the 31 months of this war and you have about 50,000 KIA.

At the same time the Minister of the Interior commented that there were 55,000 Missing in Action. Then later commented in an aside, that we know they’re mostly dead. 

That would certainly suggest that the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers is in the vicinity of 100,000. And that is a very conservative number. That would yield overall Ukrainian casualties of 450,000 - 500,000. And Russia has 4 times as many people a Ukraine.

Obviously, a large part of these story lines are propaganda. 

But there is value in people knowing the hard truth, particularly when you don’t know how long this is going to last.

Consider what has come to be known as the Stockdale paradox. VADM Stockdale was asked, years after he had come home after years in the “Hanoi Hilton,” who were the folks (POWs) who didn’t survive. His answer was: the Optimists. 

The guys who kept saying ”Well be home by Christmas,” etc., would be psychologically crushed each time a hope failed. The guys who survived and dealt with problem the best were the realists.

Listening to the spiels that come forth from Kyiv, Washington, London, et al, one gets the sensation that there are a lot of optimists…

Meanwhile, they may not like the Russians, but there is no denying that the Russians are tough soldiers.

I hope there are enough realists around.

v/r pete