February 9th, 2026

Politics - 1,400 buildings in Kyiv alone without heat

- Cities in 12 Oblasts without either power or heat

Combat Ops - Large strikes on Power grid

- Hulyaipole falls to Russian forces

Weather

Kharkiv

14 and clear, windchill 4. Sunny tomorrow, then clouds return, rain or snow Friday through Monday. Tomorrow and Wednesday cold, lows in the teens, highs in the 20s, then warmer, Thursday through Monday temperatures will remain in the 30s, then colder next Tuesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

18 and clear, windchill 6. Sunny tomorrow and Wednesday, then mostly cloudy through Monday, rain Saturday through Monday. Tomorrow and Wednesday lows in the teens, highs in the mid 20s, then warmer, Thursday through Monday lows in the 30s, highs in the low 40s, then back below freezing next Tuesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

3 and partly cloudy, wind chill minus 9. Some sun tomorrow afternoon, but other than that, cloudy for the next week, with rain or snow next weekend. Tomorrow very cold, but Thursday through Sunday temperatures will hover around freezing, then cold again next week. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

As of this morning some 1,400 apartment buildings in Kyiv were without heat, and other cities and towns were also with significant losses in power and heating. Six towns in Kherson Oblast were also without power as were sections of Lviv and several other oblasts.

President Zelenskyy posted:

"I held a coordination call on the situation in the energy sector and on efforts to eliminate the consequences of Russian strikes. The most challenging conditions remain in the capital: more than 1,400 apartment buildings in Kyiv are still without heating, and it is crucial that people in every one of these buildings receive all the support they need.”

"The situation in the Kherson region was discussed separately – 6 settlements in the region are facing extremely difficult energy conditions due to constant drone strikes, creating extraordinarily challenging circumstances for restoration work. Regional authorities must ensure additional efforts in this area, both protective and recovery-related.”

Zelenskyy also commented on power and heat problems in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomir oblasts.

"I held a detailed discussion with [Ukraine's] minister of energy on the situation with nuclear generation. For the Russian army, our nuclear energy facilities – including the infrastructure and grids linked to nuclear power plants – remain, in effect, constant targets."

ForMin Sybiha commented on the peace negotiations in Dubai and noted that the Ukrainian and Russian leaders need to meet and work out a settlement and that only President Trump has the power to make that happen and and the war.

He noted that only a few items remain to be worked out, but they are the most sensitive and the leaders of the two countries need to deal with this directly. 

He also noted that US negotiators have said that the security guarantees will be presented to Congress for ratification, and he also noted that France and the UK have agreed to send troops to Ukraine as a deterrent.

Hungary’s ForMin Szijjártó posted on his support for Ukrainians who flee Ukraine and seek sanctuary in Hungary after an Hungarian was arrested in Ukraine for helping five Ukrainian men get across the border and into Hungary:

"This case also clearly shows that the war needs to end as soon as possible, and the forced conscription needs to be stopped immediately… [Ukrainians] desperately trying to escape from Ukraine to avoid conscription, and with it, being sent to the front and likely death.”

There are an estimated 25,000 Ukrainians in Hungary but there is no breakdown by age or sex.

On Friday there was an assassination attempt against LTGEN Vladimir Alexeyev, the deputy of Russia’s GRU. Alexeyev was hit three times, twice in his stomach, once in one leg, and reportedly lost a good deal of blood but is now stable and recovering.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has two men in custardy (one returned from Dubai on Sunday): a Ukrainian-born Russian citizen Lyubomir Korba, who was extradited from Dubai, and his suspected accomplice Viktor Vasin.

The FSB reports that the two men have confessed to the attempted murder, and that they were in the employ of Ukraine’s Special Services (SBU). The FSB claims that Korba admitted that he was recruited last August by the SBU, was trained in Kyiv, and was paid in crypto-currency. He was to receive $30,000 if successful.

Speculation on my part but Korba may also confess to the Kennedy assassination.

Alexeyev’s boss, Admiral Kostyukov, is leading the Russian negotiation team.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City as well as north of Kharkiv City but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines over the last 4 days. 

Fighting was also reported east of Kharkiv, along there border north of the Oskil river, but there were no confirmed charges to the lines.

Russian forces claim they have pushed across the border north-west of Sumy city and taken another small patch of Ukraine, Sydorivka, a slice of farm land about 55 miles north-north-west of Sumy, with no full-time inhabitants. There is no confirmation of this seizure.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, and east and north-east of Borova; Russian forces remaining inside Kupyansk reportedly consists of the remnants of several platoons, perhaps 50 troops total. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces advanced a short distance north-east along the P-79 roadway about 5-6 miles north-east of Borova.

SLOVYANSK - LYMAN - SIVERSK 

Fighting continues across much of the front line in this area, with imagery confirming Ukrainian forces pushed back into Nykyforivka, a small town about 12 miles south-east of Slovyansk. Russian forces had pushed up the road from Bondarne last week; Ukrainian forces have now retaken parts of the town. The town was a small village (about 800 people) before the war, and mainly consists of a string of houses along a single street.

Fighting around Lyman is reportedly heavy, but Russian probes have so far failed to penetrate deeply into the city.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Russian probes continue into Kostiantinivka. Over the weekend Russian forces retook Novomarkove and Pryvillia (north of Chasiv Yar), and parts of Ivanopillia (south-east of Kostiantinivka) and Stepanivka (south of Kostiantinivka), but made no further gains into eastern Kostiantinivka itself.

Further east, north of Pokrovsk, Russian forces made small gains in Rodynske, and fighting was reported north and northwest of Pokrovsk, and imagery confirmed small Russian gains just north-west of Pokrovsk, just east of Hryshyne.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains about 8 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole, west of the Haichur River, with Ukrainian forces pushing back into Russian lines. But Russian forces still control the river and remain west (in control of) of the Ukrainian defensive positions.

Of note, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have full control of Hulyaipole. Russian forces will now press westward along the line of the T0814 roadway.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 8th-February 9th Russian forces launched at least 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 116 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporozhzia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses; this included a strike on a NaftoGaz Group natural gas facility in Poltava.

There are reports of at least 4 injured civilians.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

During the nights of February 5th-February 8th Russian forces launched the following missiles and drones into Ukrainian airspace:

7th-8th at least 1 x ballistic missile and 101 striek drones. The UAF defeated 69 drones. Targets were struck in Chernihiv, Dniproptetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Poltava Oblasts. 

At least 1 civilian was killed.

6th-7th at least 2 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 21 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles 408 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it brought down 24 missiles and 382 drones 

Targets were struck in Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Violin oblasts. The strike focused on thermal power plants (TPPs) and substations, and left 600,000 people in Lviv oblast without power, and no heat or water in Ivano-Frankivsk.

At least 1 civilian was killed.

5th-6th at least 2 x Khinzhal ballistic missiles, 5 x Kh59/69 cruise missiles, 328 x attack drones. The UAF claimed that it shot down all the missiles and 297 drones. Targets included energy infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia oblasts.

A Russian interceptor drone was shot down on the 7th that had an R-60 air-to-air missile (NATO nomenclature AA-8 Aphid) mounted on the top of the drone, facing aft. The missile is an infra-red guided missile with a maximum range of 5 miles - and a minimum range of only 300 meters (1,000 feet).

During the night of February 4th-February 5th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 183 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 156 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are no casualty reports yet.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

Per President Zelenskyy, during the first week of February Russian forces launched 116 x missiles, more than 1,200 glide bombs, and more than 2,000 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. Targets were predominantly the power grid and transportation systems.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb5 Feb9

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 67.76 68.57

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 63.48 64.04

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.45 3.20

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.25 5.29

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.57 77.40

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.14 43.03

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 55.69 56.37

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 61.05 59.77

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 63.28 62.85

Thoughts

The seizure of Hulyaipole is of note; Russian forces were pressing on Ukrainian lines east of Hulyaipole last May, and were conducting drones, artillery and glide-bomb strikes into city all summer, but really didn’t begin the investment of the city until the end of November, which makes this a rather rapid siege for the Russian army. By way of comparison, the city of Velyka Novosilke fell about a year ago also after several months “investment,” while the city of Vuhledar, further to the east, had been holding off attacks from the beginning of the war until early October 2024 (and actually, since 2014), and was the site of brutal attacks for 2 years and the mauling of two Russian regiments for no gain in 2023.

There are a number of reasons for this, though it should be noted that there was a very well prepared Ukrainian defensive line that ran along the east edge of the city that the Russians crossed with relative ease.

Ukrainian commentary has noted that the Russians used the poor weather to advance, but as one George Patton once noted, “the enemy has the same weather.”

The Russian use of strike drones with longer ranges to affect Ukrainian movement of troops and supplies forward (and exhausted and wounded troops to the rear), and the use of many more glide bombs to more quickly reduce hard points in the Ukrainian defensive positions, are certainly part of the explanation. But also of note are the comments made more than a year ago after Vuhledar fell, that there was a shortage of trained infantry. The Russian grind, and the resultant need for fresh troops, has made it very difficult for Ukraine to properly train new infantry, which simply compounds the troubles.

As for the Russians, there is still no real capability to thrust rapidly forward, that is not the Russian way of war. They will continue to press slowly west over the Haichur River, and they will move to press on Orikhiv from the east, pushing down the T0814 roadway. Orikhiv is about 23 miles further west; given the way the Russians move, they could be pushing on Orikhiv in several months.

v/r pete