May 5th, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy announces unilateral ceasefire to begin tonight

Combat Ops - Ukrainian forces strike Kirishi Oil refinery

- Russian forces strike Naftogaz facilities 

- No substantive change on ground

Weather

Kharkiv

4 and sunny. Mostly sunny through Friday, cloudy weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs near 80. Winds westerly, 5kts.

Melitopol

70 and cloudy. Cloudy through Wednesday then three days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the high 40s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

81 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through Thursday, clouding up on Friday, rainy weekend. Cooler next week. Daily lows in the 50s, highs around 80. Winds out of the south-west, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy said that there is no official proposal for a ceasefire for Russia’s Victory Day celebration, but has announced a ceasefire from midnight on the 5th to midnight on the 6th, and has urged Moscow to answer this ceasefire, commenting that Ukraine would maintain the ceasefire as long as Russia reciprocates.

The Swedish Coast Guard seized the tanker “Jin Hui” (a known sanctions violator, sailing under the Syrian Flag, 600 feet, can carry 46,000 tons of oil), the 5th ship the Swedish CG has seized since early March. Jin Hui was, reportedly riding high.

Ground Operations

Ground operations continue as before, with continued efforts to infiltrate small recon elements by both side - though substantially more probes by Russian elements, and a great deal of FPV drone activity, again by both sides, that results in very little movement day-to-day. The Ukrainian General Staff reported multiple Russian assaults all along the front lines, but few changes.

Confirmed activity that resulted in any change included a Russian probe south-east of Lyman as they pushed along the Donets railroad just outside the city; the Russian activity appears to have extended, if not the area of Russian controlled space, at least the “no mans land” to the edge of the T0514 roadway as it arcs around the east and south end of Lyman.

Imagery also confirmed that Ukrainian forces are still holding terrain just east of Rai Oleksandrivka (about 12 miles south-east of Slovyansk). Russian forces are still trying to straighten their lines but in this area in particular the front line is full of gray areas and a number of small salients. This is mostly manicured farmland (that hasn’t been tended properly in several years), interspersed with small stands of forest and some small creeks, presenting the same opportunities or problems for those trying to hold, and for those trying to clear.

Multiple probes were noted in the Kostiantinivka area and in the east and south-east end of the city, but there were no substantive changes.

Further west imagery confirmed Russian probes south of Hryshyne, and Ukrainian army sources report Russian forces regrouping in the Pokrovsk area, to include redeploying several drone units in the area.

Ukrainian forces continue efforts to clear Russian elements out of Prymorsk, along the Dnepr, but there were no confirmed changes in that area.

Air and Maritime Operations

On May 5th Ukrainian drones struck the oil refinery at Kirishi, about 50 miles south-east of St Petersburg. 

Kirishi is a large refinery, producing roughly 125 - 150 million barrels of refined product per year (350,000 - 400,000 barrels per day). There is a fire as a result of the strike but the extent of damage is not yet known.

Last night Russian forces struck Naftogaz (Ukraine’s national natural gas company), hitting facilities in Poltava and Kharkiv, using both ballistic missiles and strike drones. The extent of the damage is not yet known, but at least 5 workers were killed and 37 wounded.

During the night of May 4th-May 5th Russian forces launched at least 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 164 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 149 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure, to include gas and oil infrastructure in Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts.

There were at least 7 civilian killed and 43 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 6 towns.

During the night of May 3rd-May 4th Russian forces launched at least 155 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 135 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

Targets included the power grid and transportation infrastructure.

There were at least 7 civilian killed and 23 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 27 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 May4 May5

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 113.20 113.30

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 104.20 104.60

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.87 2.83

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.41 6.37

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 75.44 75.44

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 44.01 43.94

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 110.58 110.58

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 NA NA

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 103.41 103.41

Thoughts

It appears that Russia will increase infrastructure attacks in response to Ukraine’s successful - and very visible - attacks on Russia’s oil industry. If I were to guess, based on historical precedent, neither country is going to give in any time soon, though it would be good to see this ceasefire announced yesterday segue into a real ceasefire… say a prayer.

This isn’t to harp on one side or the other, but it is meant to point out the problem with the reporting on this war, as well as to point out that the real issue in this war is not terrain, it’s attrition.

A story released yesterday in Al Jazeera (which has a much more level-headed reporting record than most in regard to this war) was headlined:

“How to escape Russia’s army”

And a secondary headline:

“Soldiers serving in Ukraine seek a way out”

The story then went on to discuss how Russia’s army faces a desertion crisis and that some 50,000 Russian soldiers have deserted since the start of the war.

This is true and it represents a not inconsiderable 1.7% (roughly) of all who have served in Russia’s army since 2022. (For context, the US Army desertion rate in 1971 (the peak Vietnam War year) was 3.4%).

What is misleading is that - 35 paragraphs later - the article points out that more than 200,000 Ukrainians have deserted. In fact, the number now exceeds 290,000, as of several months ago. This is a desertion rate of 14.5% 

It has been noted elsewhere that some 600,000 - 900,000 Russian men left the country. But more than 1 million Ukrainian men have left the country and another 1 million are believed to be still in the country but in hiding. 

Note that Ukraine has a population of about 32 million (pre war about 43 million), Russia has a population of 147 million.

Said differently, some 2.3 million Ukrainian men, out of a pre-war male population (over 18 years of age) of roughly 18 million, 2.3 million - 13% - don’t want to serve. The equivalent Russian number is about 1.2%.

“For Ukrainian forces, this is a real crisis, and for the Russian army, it isn’t,” commented Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University.

v/r pete