October 14th, 2026      

Politics - US Intelligence support issue

- Zelenskyy - Klitschko bang heads

Combat Ops - Little change on ground

- Missile strikes continue

Weather

The fall rains appear to have arrived, which will slow down the already slow ground war and will also accelerate the loss of foliage and concealment.

Kharkiv

57 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Showers possible tonight. Rain all day tomorrow and into Friday morning, more rain starting early Sunday and lasting into mid-day Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

6o and cloudy, gusting to 20. Showers tonight. Rain all day tomorrow and into Friday morning, then rain starting again Saturday morning and lasting through Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

55 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week. Rain starting Friday morning, rain on and off through Monday night. Lows may dip into the 30s tomorrow, then daily lows around 50 and daily highs near 60. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

On the 13th President Zelenskyy commented that the US and its European partners did not provide real-time intelligence on the Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv during the night of the 12th-13th.

On the 14th President Zelenskyy said that again there was no intelligence warning of the missile strikes during the night of the13-14th.

“Unfortunately, there was no warning from our partners regarding this strike. Intelligence data on the launch of Russian ballistic missiles helps save lives, and this is one of the most critical issues. It is precisely this that helps prevent deaths when there is a warning about ballistic missiles.”

Of note, on the 13th, ForMin Sybiha stated that the as of the 13th, there was no change in US - Ukraine intelligence cooperation.

President Trump said the same thing later in the day.

Of note, the UAF spokesman, Col. Ihnat, noted that this was not the first time, that there have been other instances where launch alerts failed to reach UAF air defenses assets in time; he suggested that these were probably technical failures [most likely communications systems failures], as they have been in the past.

It’s interesting that the communications linkage failed two nights in a row and makes me wonder if there were some sort of cyber attack taking place as the missiles launched. 

Prime Minister Koretskyi noted that the attacks last night hit all three of Kyivs operational combined heat and power plants.

As a result of the attacks last night, 600,000 residents of Kyiv were without power this morning.

In related news. President Zelenskyy announced that the government is working on changes to the nation’s “Resilience Plans,” which provide guidelines to how the country, and individual towns, should prepare for sustaining power, heat, water, transportation, etc., especially through the winter.

Zelenskyy commented that the city of Kyiv is the least prepared city in the country. 

"As of mid-October, virtually across the entire country – even in border and frontline regions – the implementation of resilience plans is further advanced than in Kyiv. And Kyiv residents certainly feel it – when even isolated hits by Shaheds cause electricity and water outages across large parts of the capital."

“Today I began consultations on urgent security and administrative measures to rectify the situation in the city, accelerate the implementation of Kyiv’s resilience plan, and ensure greater support for the people. I spoke with representatives from the security sector, the business community, and local government, including Vasyl Maliuk, Ivan Fedorov, Ihor Terekhov, Kostiantyn Yefymenko, and Maksym Yefimov. There are substantial proposals, and I am grateful for them. I will hold additional consultations, and more meetings are planned.”

“Protecting energy facilities and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, carrying out tasks in coordination with the government and the military, understanding people’s needs, and rationally adjusting the management protocols for Kyiv—we are preparing solutions.”

Kyiv’s Mayor Klitschko, who has evolved into a political rival of President Zelenskyy, rejects Zelenskyy’s accusations and suggests that it’s an effort by the Zelenskyy administration to undermine local government.

Klitschko noted that Kyiv’s two major Combined Heat and Power Plants (CHPP-5 and CHPP-6) have been repeatedly struck throughout the war: 12 missiles and drones in 2022, 7 in 2023, 0 in 2024, 19 in 2025, and almost 50 times so far this year.

"Throughout this time, experts have been working, repairing equipment and preparing the facilities for winter every year. And Kyiv has stood firm.”

Klitschko noted that the city now has almost 700 generators, 70 mobile boilers, 3 diesel power stations, a backup water intake system, and more than 6,000 pieces of equipment for supporting the management of power in the city.

In addition, the city’s water system has 103 generators and are expecting more that are now being made outside the country. 285 generators have been set up at the city’s schools, 480 at the city’s hospitals, 15 hospitals have their own wells, and 6 more are digging wells. 11 hospitals have independent heating and 10 more will by the end of the year. 

As a reminder, working on old Soviet designs, many building complexes in Ukraine have central hot water and heat systems.

Klitschko commented:

"Kyiv is working, rebuilding and repairing, and keeping the city running. This is happening amid staff shortages at municipal utilities and suspended payments, while the enemy is tearing the city apart every day and every night.”

He noted this was all going on even with  "the spiteful slaps that the central government constantly tries to deliver".

"Kyiv is functioning under difficult wartime conditions, under constant devastating attacks by the enemy. These attacks target infrastructure, the energy sector, industry, businesses and every resident of the capital.”

Ground Operations 

In the north, Ukrainian forces made small gains in the town of Yanukivka, north.

North-east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces announced that they had retaken the red towns of ZelenaDolyna, Lypove and Kolodyazi. These towns were overrun by Ukrainian forces in September, but it appears that the Ukrainian forces have just finished clearing the towns. 

Russian forces continued infiltration efforts in and around Kostiantinivka and further west towards Dobripillia, and Russian forces have taken the town of Matiasheve, between Dobripillia and Pokrovsk.

In the south-east fighting continues in the vicinity of Fedorivka,

On a curious note, Ukrainian forces are reporting that Russian forces attempted to cross the Dnepr River near the town of Prydniprovske, about 8 miles up river from the city of Kherson (on the west bank). The report suggested the Russian forces were trying to seize the position but the operation consisted of just a single rubber raiding craft, so presumably it was just another raid, but it is the first one mentioned in a while.

All that said, one of the more conservative Ukrainian online sites reported that, overall, for the month of September, Russian controlled terrain shows a net increase of 154 square kilometers - 60 sq miles.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). These attacks can involve from a handful to scores of FPV drones per day into any given village.

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces struck a repair facility for Iskander launch vehicles, in Kursk oblast.

Imagery from the 12th showed that the 10 October Ukrainian strike on the oil pier in Rostov, damaged 7 of 12 storage tanks.

Ukrainian forces are reporting that SpaceX introduced a limit on Starlink support that degrades operations above 160KPH (about 100kts), causing intermittent signal loss above that speed.

Per the Ukrainian forces spokesman:

"According to our observations, during flights, the connection could drop for 10–20 seconds at speeds of just 110–120 km/h. The drones kept moving, but these interruptions made them harder to control.”

SpaceX has not responded (at least not publicly).

Russian Forces

During the period from October 13th-October 14th Russian forces launched at least 39 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, and 129 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 4 ballistic missiles and 115 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Per President Zelenskyy the Russian targeted Kyiv’s TPP-4 (thermal power plant); per the PM, all of Kyiv’s TPPs were targets, though it is not clear which ones were hit.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 dead and 62 wounded.

During the period from October 12th-October 13th Russian forces launched at least 5 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 9 x Banderol loitering munitions, and 108 X strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 88 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Lviv, Rivne, Sumy, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Dnipropetrovsk was struck by several glide bombs. 

Civilian casualties included at least 5 dead and 60 wounded.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct13 Oct14

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 104.90 106.00

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 92.55 95.43

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95  3.16 3.18 3.22

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 6.71 6.67

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 83.99 84.06

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.08 44.99

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 120.94 118.15

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 115.15 115.69

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 112.08 113.00

Thoughts

Two issues:

On the operations side, the assessment from DeepState that overall Russian forces had gained ground during September throws a little cold water on the good news assessments of Operation Vivaldi. Op Vivaldi has been hailed as a great success, and it has been suggested that it has stopped the Russian effort to envelope the Donetsk Fortress belt, it regained terrain north of Lyman, and it continues to eat away at Russian held terrain north of Hulyaipole. 

But DeepState, which is widely quoted by the Ukrainian newspapers and the Ukrainian government, suggests things aren’t quite what they seem. What the real “line of contact” looks like is, of course, another matter… 

Meanwhile, the stress inside the system continues, and the animosity between Zelenskyy and Klitschko seems to be steadily increasing. The Verkhovna Rada which is controlled by Zelenskyy’s party, has called Klitschko in front of a committee to discuss the status of Kyiv, which certainly didn’t make Klitschko happy.

Klitschko has done a good deal to get the city ready for winter, but damage to power plants and the power grid are not simply difficult and expensive to repair, many items in power grids last so long (large transformer, for example) that no one keeps spares, they are simply built anew when it comes time to replace them. 

v/r pete