November 11th, 2026 Veterans Day / Armistice Day

Politics - Talks end, POW exchange agreed

- EU will openly send military advisors to Ukraine

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Little change on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

40 and light rain.  Cloudy through the weekend, rain on Wednesday, rain and warmer on Friday. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs near 40, except Friday which will see a high in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and light rain, gusting over 20. Cloudy through the weekend, rain on Thursday and again on Saturday. Lows in the upper 30s, highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, rain Thursday and Friday. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the low 40s, except Friday, with highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Talks in Abu Dhabi concluded at 1310 local (0710 EST). Mr Kushner commented that: 

"I will travel to Moscow on Thursday with Witkoff to meet with Putin, then to Dublin to meet with Zelenskyy."

The two will meet with President Putin and “…make more progress on some of the issues that were discussed, because we see some openings and some opportunities there.”

The talks did yield an agreement for another POW exchange 

President Zelenskyy made a comment about the question of ceding territory to Russia:

“This is a simple way to negotiate with the Russians: put pressure on us to leave Donbas, and there will be a deal. We are not ready for such a deal; we are not ready to trust Putin.”

“Of course, it’s easier to put pressure on us, but I hope the U.S. will find another way, together with Europe. We are counting on that.”

The European Council (the “symbolic head of state of the EU”) announced that EU military personnel will be sent to Ukraine as part of a military training mission - the EU Military Assistance Mission in Ukraine (EUMAM). There has been military assistance to Ukraine up to this point, but nominally, it has all taken place outside of Ukraine. Now it will include personnel openly stationed inside Ukraine.

The EC press statement noted: 

"The Council also decided to establish a presence in Ukraine to ensure direct and effective coordination with the Ukrainian military authorities.”

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

On November 10th Ukrainian forces struck the oil pumping facility at Ust Luga, about 60 miles west of St Petersburg, and the oil refinery in Omsk, about 1,200 miles east of Moscow.

On November 9th Ukrainian forces struck the 123rd Aircraft Repair faculty in Staraya (about 125 miles south of St. Petersburg, a facility that is major maintenance site for the A-50 Mainstay (Russia’s AWACS aircraft).

Ukrainian forces struck the Kirishi refinery (about 60 miles south-east of St Petersburg) on the night of November 8th.

Ukrainian Forces struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery (about 90 miles east of the Kerch Strait), in Krasnodar Krai, on November 6th. This is the 5th time the refinery has been struck this year. The refinery has a total output of a it over 6 million tons per year - the 9 million tons per year quoted n the press is the intended output after a planned expansion. 

There is no figure on the actual output so far this year (at full capacity it would have produced a bit more than 5 million tons through the end of October). 

Ukrainian forces also struck the Saratov Refinery (400 miles south-east of Moscow) on the 6th.

On November 5th Ukraine forces struck the oil refinery in Ryazan (90 miles south-east of Moscow)

Ukrainian forces struck the Yaroslavl refinery on the 2nd; Yaroslavl is about 150 miles north-east of Moscow.

Russian Forces

During the night of November 10th-November 11th Russian forces launched an undisclosed number of KH-59/69 cruise missiles and 163 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. There was no UAF report on numbers intercepted.

During the day on the 11th Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, an unreported number of Banderol loitering munitions and 155 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW 14 Banderols and 124 drones.

Glide bombs struck targets in Zaporizhzhia.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

A power outage and water outage was reported n Pavlohrad.

Civilian casualties included at least 3 killed and 20 wounded.

Between November 3rd and November 10th, Russian forces continued their strikes against Ukrainian power generation capabilities, the power grid as a whole, and against transportation and logistics infrastructure. Strikes included glide bomb attacks on the port facilities in Odessa and  at least 4 Iskander ballistic missiles striking the north bridge in Kyiv.

Overall Russian forces launched at least 53 ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles into Ukrainian airspace, as well as 50 cruise missiles, an unreported number of Banderol loitering drones, and at least 1,371 strike drones.

Ukrainian forces engaged and brought down 3 of the anti-ship cruise missiles, no Iskander ballistics missiles, 49 cruise missiles and at least 558 strike drones - though the reporting on strike drones suggests that the actual number brought down is on the order of 1,200 - but the count was not released.

Multiple civilian killed and wound were reported but there is no final count.

Damage was reported across most of the county, and power outages were also reported over much of the country. As usual, the bulk of the strikes and the bulk of the damage took place in the greater Kyiv area. The Kyiv area was also suffering through water supply issues, on top of the power outages.

The northern bridge, struck on the night of the 6th-7th, has been repaired and was partially reopened on Sunday.

Technology

Russian forces continue to deploy new variants of their drones and cruise missiles, and continue to push up the top speeds and ranges of their drones with a present production effort to produce “tens of thousands” of small drones / cruise missiles with top speed of 350 kts or more.

Russia introduced the Banderol last year, referred to as a “loitering munition,” with cruise speed of just under 300kts, a 290lb warhead and a 300 mile range. 

A newer system, the Dan-T, is now being introduced but costs 35% less, with essentially the same performance as the Banderol.

They are also working on increasing warhead size while keeping similar performance specs, and have also developed a weapon with a 700 mile range, at 450 kts, carrying a 220lb warhead, and another with a 500kt top speed. 

Of note, one thing they all have in common are many Chinese components, in particular Chinese jet engines.

Ground Operations

Activity was reported along much of the line of contact, but there were few confirmed changes.

In the center, north-east of Lyman, Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are building up forces east of the Zherebets River in anticipation of an attempt to push back across the river. 

This is undoubtedly true, but previous successful assaults across that river took place in summer - when the mud had dried, or winter, when the river was frozen. Whether they will wait that long or not remains to be seen.

Further south, imagery continues to show slow Russian consolidation of positions in central and northern Kostiantinivka, and further infiltration to the north and north-west edges of the city.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  Jul9         Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Nov10 Nov11

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 89.80 93.77

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 84.69 87.90

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64 2.95   3.16 3.23 3.35

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46  6.86 5.88 5.94

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 82.99 82.59

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.36 45.30

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 72.96 72.16

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 118.57 117.49

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 99.38 100.41

ESPO Forward, 11 November - 114.45

Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian refineries and are reporting a 30% drop in production as a result of these strikes; that is a “point in time” number. Outside of Ukrainian forces and the Ukrainian General Staff numbers, the source most people are quoting are two unnamed sources who keep reporting through Reuters. Per those two individuals, Russian production for the first week of November was on the order of 500,000 tons per day, down from 700,000 tons per day. 

But the Russian repair cycle appears to be improving. Overall, the same sources provide data that suggests that Russian refining output from January 1st through the end of October was about 188 - 190 million tons, compared to 219 million tons last year, a 14% drop.

Initial claims of strikes in November suggest November production numbers will be lower, but the Russians continue to learn and continue to adapt.

Thoughts

The EUMAM will irritate the Russians but the mission will not materially change the war. They do not appear to be deploying any additional combat or intelligence capabilities, so it is unlikely to change any of the facts on or across the front line.

It will assuredly anger Moscow and presumably Russian forces will look for an opportunity to put some sort of warhead on top of an EUMAM facility.

To affect the outcome on the ground or in the air, the EU would need to deploy and sustain combat forces, something they are unable to do to any meaningful degree without US assistance. To get a good look at this, look at the exercises Dacian Spring 25 and Dacian Fall 25 and the difficulty in moving a single BCT across western and central Europe. 

However, it would presumably get their “noses under the tent” for participation in a future ceasefire or peace treaty and the follow-on security guarantee. But, it might also so irritate the Kremlin that is pushes any possible settlement further to the right.

v/r pete