January 27th, 2026

Politics - Baltic Sea to be closed to “Shadow Fleet”

- EU Membership and Ukraine’s Security

Combat Ops - Russian gains west of Siversk

- Pressure on Kostiantinivka and Hulyaipole

- Cold weather to worsen next week

Weather

The cold weather eases just a bit this week, as rain and then snow move in, but returning to very cold weather next week; with wind chills of minus 20 possible in some areas, to include Kyiv.

Cloud cover over much of the country will degrade commercial satellite imaging, limiting assessment of changes to the front lines.

Kharkiv

17 and cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Ice - rain - snow mix tonight and for the following 4 days, clouds may break a little begging Sunday. A bit warmer for the next four days, lows near 30, highs in the mid 30s. But next week very cold, high of 14 on Saturday, then daily highs in single digits all next week, wind chills minus 10 or worse. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

24 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, except Wednesday afternoon, rain turning to snow Friday through Monday. Temperatures in the 30s Wednesday through Saturday, then back into the 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

24 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Freezing rain or snow tonight and through Wednesday and Thursday. Cloudy Friday then partly cloudy for the following week, Daily temperatures in the upper 20s to 30, through Thursday, then colder, in the teens on Friday, then into single digits through next week, several days of extreme cold, highs near zero, wind chills of minus 20 or more possible.. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

14 European countries have announced they will close the Baltic Sea to Russia’s “Shadow Fleet.” Ships that conceal their origin, change flags, switch off transponders, or operate without proper documentation will be considered as vessels without nationality and accordingly may be detained.

The 14 countries are: Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The statement reads:

We, the Coastal States of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea (Belgium, Denmark,

Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway. Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) with Iceland, are approaching the International Maritime Community, especially flag and port states, national authorities, flag registries, classification societies, shipping companies, managers and operators as well as seafarers, with this letter.

Dear Members of the International Maritime Community, Modern maritime transport is fundamentally built on the reliability of satellite-based navigation. For over three decades, global shipping has advanced by developing vessel operations to increasingly depend on the position, timing, and navigation (PTN) data provided by satellite systems. This shift has brought great efficiency but has also created a new dependency.

The accurate and uninterrupted functioning of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is not a technical luxury; it is a critical safety requirement. GNSS signals support not only ship navigation but also precise time synchronisation vital for systems such as the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS). Disruption of these signals is a risk to the safety and reliability of maritime transport. We are now facing new emerging safety situations due to growing GNSS interference in European waters, particularly in the Baltic Sea region. These disturbances, originating from the Russian Federation, degrade the safety of international shipping. All vessels are at risk.

The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration was demanding Ukraine concede territory to Russia. The White House has denied this.

Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, commented

"This is totally false — the US's only role in the peacemaking process is to bring both sides together to make a deal.”

President Zelenskyy considered EU membership - by 2027 - as a key element of Ukrainian security.

"Ukraine's accession to the European Union is one of the key security guarantees not only for us, but for the whole of Europe. After all, the common strength of Europe is possible, among other things, thanks to Ukraine's security, technological and economic contributions. That is why we are talking about a specific date - 2027 - and we count on our partners to support our position.”

EU membership requires unanimous agreement among current members. Hungary and several other countries are opposed to Ukrainian membership, Germany and Slovakia at least partly so, Hungary adamantly so.

Hungarian PM Orban said that he would summon Ukraine’s ambassador to discuss what Orban has labeled as interference in Hungarian parliamentary elections in April (April 12th).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KKHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and Ukrainian military reporting notes that Russian forces have pushed back into Andrivka as of the 25th, placing them roughly 14 miles north of Sumy City.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv and Ukrainian military sources confirmed Russian forces have taken Dehtyarne and pushed west from there and have now also taken Nesterne (the next village to the west, with a population of less than 200 (before the war).

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area, particularly east and south-east of Kupyansk, as well as in the area north-east of Borova, but there were no changes to the front lines in either area.

Fighting continues around Lyman, and south-east of Lyman, and in the terrain west of Siversk. Imagery confirmed Russian gains in several areas (probably last week) and that the front line east of Slovyansk runs from Zakitne (about 15 miles east of Slovyansk, on the Donets River), south of Platonivka (just to the east of Zakitne), then arcs to the south to the area of Riznykivka and then on to the area of Pazeno (a small town about 10 miles due north of Bakhmut). The imagery also suggests that several towns and villages east of that line, which had been holding, have now been taken by the Russians.

Imagery also confirmed Russian forces are in the east side of Lyman, and advancing up Pushkin Street, the major road along the east side of the town.

I’m not certain, but it appears that Ukrainian forces ceded the fight for some of these small villages after it became clear that the Russians had the high ground in the middle (just west of Siversk), and had brought the relevant ground lines of communication under direct fire, and those Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to defensive lines east of but closer to Slovyansk.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Russian forces remained on the attack in eastern Kostiantinivka, as well as in villages in an arc from the south-west to east to north-east, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further to the west, Russian forces were noted active in Novyi Donbas (about 10 miles north of Pokrovsk) and appear to control the town of Ivanivka, immediately east of that town.

In the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, and Ukrainian forces still appear to hold position in both cities, though Ukrainian forces reporting shows the areas controlled by Ukrainian forces slowly shrinking.

Further to the south-west, fighting continues in and around Novopavlivka, but here were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Vovcha River and Hairchur River but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

Fighting also continues in and around Hulyaipole, and there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

However, Ukrainian forces reporting suggests that Russian forces pushing on Hulyaipole from the east have now reached the T0401 roadway and control everything east of that road. Russian forces also appear to control all but a small wedge of the city north of the T0814 roadway. Fighting was noted in the city center, where these two roadways come together.

Fighting continued across Southern Ukraine but there was no significant activity to report.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 26th-January 27th, Russian forces launched at least 165 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 135 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 killed and 37 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

As of last night 926 houses and apartment buildings inside Kyiv were still without heating

In Kharkiv, 80% of the city was said to be without electricity as of yesterday afternoon.

During the night of January 25th-January 26th Ukrainian drones struck the Slavyansk oil refinery (about 50 miles east of the Kerch Strait), and claim they hit the processing plant. Authorities in Krasnodar Krai reported drone strikes at the refinery on the 26th; extent of hte damage is unknown.

DTEK reported on the 26th that their power generation capacity was only 30-40% of its nominal installed capacity and that they have sustained $64 billion in damage. Ukrainian citizens are now averaging 3 to 4 hours of electricity per day.

During the night of January 25th-January 26th, Russian forces launched at least 138 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 7 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan26 Jan27

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 65.41 66.13

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 60.55 61.17

NG       3.97        3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 6.11 6.03

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.25 5.22

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.46 76.23

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.00 42.87

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 55.51 56.10

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 57.06 58.09

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 61.40 60.09

Natural gas prices continue to reflect increased demand due to extreme cold in the northern hemisphere.

Thoughts

There are some interesting propaganda wars going on between Kyiv and Moscow with each side claiming to be “devastating” the enemy. What is of note is that Ukrainian forces have begun to tell of a new strategy of using more sophisticated drones and more sophisticated tactics to create deeper “kill zones” as an attrition tactic and the claim that Russian forces recruitment is now falling well behind the casualty numbers.

Part of this “reporting” was focused on the fight for Siversk, asserting that the Russian capture of Siversk in the last few weeks was a trap that the Ukrainian forces has set up and that the Russian army had walked into the trap and were being “slaughtered.”

As has been true for the entire war, there are no good casualty figures, but there is no reporting - except for several streams that originate in Ukrainian army HQ - that support any sort of large scale slaughter of Russians. (There is an analogous stream out of Moscow.)

But what is of concern is that both Ukrainian and Russian propaganda have regularly shifted propaganda into high gear when they are suffering a setback. Thus, the Ukrainian claims of massive Russian casualties as the Russians grind forward - and the Ukrainians are forced to withdraw. Talk of Russian forces suffering “devastating blows” and Russian leadership calling for “meat assaults” might be an indication that Ukrainian forces are suffering higher losses than expected and are losing ground in several key cities.

Compared to the pace of this war since the fall of 2022, the Russian fight for Hulyaipole and for Kostiantinivka, and the advance on Slovyansk in the last several months, have been substantially quicker and it is possible these advances - and the propaganda - and the suggestion of new, drone-centric tactics, are indicators of a problem with adequate numbers of trained infantry in the Ukrainian army.

v/r pete 

 January 26th, 2026

Politics - Talks meet again on February 1st

- Power grid struggles

Combat ops - Few changes

- But Myrnohrad pocket is slowly shrinking 

Weather

The cold weather eases just a bit this week, as rain and then snow move in, but returning to very cold weather next week.

Cloud cover over much of the country will degrade commercial satellite imaging, limiting assessment of changes to the front lines.

Kharkiv

14 and partly cloudy, winds gusting over 20. Clouding up tonight and cloudy for the next week. Wednesday through Saturday sleet turning to snow. Very cold Tuesday, with high temperatures in the teens, wind chills below zero. Wednesday through Saturday temperatures hovering around 30, very cold weather returns on Saturday. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

18 and cloudy gusting to 25. Cloudy all week, except Wednesday afternoon, rain Turing to snow Friday through Monday. Temperatures in the 20s tomorrow, in the 30s Wednesday through Saturday, then back into the 20s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

21 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Freezing rain turning to snow by tomorrow night, then daily snow showers through the weekend. Daily temperatures in the upper 20s to 30, through Thursday, then colder, in the teens on Thursday and Friday, then into single digits through next week; wind chills below zero. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

US, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met last week in the UAE and the talks were labeled as “very productive” and “constructive,” and the next session has been scheduled for February 1st. There are no details on what specifically was discussed.

President Zelenskyy commented on the talks after the meeting:

”We also talked about complex political issues that have not yet been resolved. We analyzed the key positions of the parties. We defined the framework for further diplomatic work. We are preparing for new trilateral meetings this week.”

Russian Presidential Spokesman Peskov commented:

"I can't make an assessment yet. It would be a mistake to count on any such high efficiency of the first contacts. This is a very complex substance. Complex issues are on the agenda, it's no secret, and it is our consistent position that the territorial issue, which is part of the Anchorage formula, is of fundamental importance to the Russian side.”

 Zelenskyy also noted that the proposed US security guarantees is “100 percent ready.”

“For us, security guarantees are first and foremost guarantees of security from the United States. The document is 100 percent ready, and we are waiting for our partners to confirm the date and place when we will sign it.”

He also noted Ukraine’s membership in the EU in 2027, calling it an “economic security guarantee.”

He later commented:

"For the first time in a long while, there was again a format involving the Americans and the Russians. They managed to discuss a range of primarily military issues – those concerning steps towards ending the war and real control and monitoring. There are issues that need to be prepared for the next meeting. Preliminary discussions indicated that the teams would meet again on Sunday. It would be good if this meeting could be moved up."

"Ukraine has always been and will remain on the side of peace, and the only reason this war continues is Russia. Real results from diplomacy are needed so that there is no impression that the Russians are also using the negotiation process for a very cynical and brutal purpose – pushing back new pressure measures against Russia that could actually work. And pressure is needed… Partners must not forget this."

Concerning the Ukrainian power grid, particularly in the Kyiv metropolitan area,

As of Sunday night Mayor Klitschko reported that some 1,300 apartment buildings were without heating.

DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, reported early this morning that emergency power is being pushed into more areas of the Kyiv oblast and that the grid was now stable, but emergency outages remain in effect for several district of the city.

President Zelenskyy commented on the situation:

”I held a special coordination call and received briefings on the situation in the regions where the energy situation is the toughest. First and foremost, this concerns Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv and its oblast, Chernihiv, Sumy, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Kyiv took up the greatest share of attention and discussion time."

"I instructed the Prime Minister of Ukraine, together with the Minister of Finance, to analyze the possibility, including for Kyiv, of urgently procuring everything that is genuinely needed right now for alternative electricity generation and heat supply.”

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHAKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there have been no changes in the lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv just inside the border. There have been no confirmed Russian gains over the weekend but overall, since the first week of January, Russian forces have made gains both south and east of Vovchansk, as well as in the very north-east tip of Ukraine, where Russian forces have slowly expanded their holding just west of Dehtyarne.

There has been no change to the lines just north of the Oskil River to the Milove area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the front line. Russian probes continue in and around Kupyansk. It is not clear if the Ukrainians have dug out the last pocket of Russian troops inside Kupyansk proper. Fighting continues east and south-east of Kupyansk and Russian forces over the past week have gained some ground south-east of Kupyansk, but the extent of those gains remains unclear

Fighting continues along most of the front line south to the Donets River, with small Russian gains north-north-east of Borova. Further south, Russian probes continue into Lyman but there is no change to the front line in this area.

A little further to the south, that is, just west and north-west of Siversk, Russian forces continue high levels of probes and daily attacks, supported by drone and artillery attacks; imagery confirmed Russian gains in Riznykivka during the middle of last week, but there were changes in the front lines over the weekend.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along most of this front line. Imagery confirmed Russian gains west of Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar, east of Kostiantinivka) along the T0504 roadway. Multiple probes continue into and around Kostiantinivka, but there were no changes to the lines.

Further south-west, a good deal of fighting was also reported but there were no confirmed changes either north of the Pokrovsk pocket or within the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad area. That said, the general gist of a good deal of unconfirmed reporting suggests that the Myrnohrad side of the pocket continues to slowly collapse. The south side of the pocket now appears to be immediately north of the north edge of the town of Svitle, and the west end of the pocket - the north-south front line - lies just east of the eastern edge of Svitle. There are probably small pockets of Ukrainian troops inside Myrnohrad, but they are probably surrounded.

Russian forces appear to hold most of Pokrovsk, but Ukrainian troops still hold parts of north and north-west Pokrovsk.

Fighting also continues on the south and south-east edges of Novopavlivka, but there is no confirmed change to the front lines. Reporting does suggest however, that the would-be pocket south-east of Filliia has now been largely closed by Russian forces.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River fighting continues along the Vovcha river line and just west of the Haichru River, but there were no confirmed changes in the line in that area.

Fighting continues in and around Hulyaipole, and reporting suggests northern Hulyaipole is now controlled by Russian forces, but this has not been confirmed; there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains on the south side of Mala Tokmachka (south-east of Orikhiv), with Russian forces still attacking from the east.

Troops in contact were again reported near the Antonvosky bridge. There are very few details on any of this action and in all likelihood it consists of small teams from both sides conducting recon and harassment raids across the river; and the continual “exchange” of control of islands in the river: one side sets up an observation post, the other side keeps attacking and eventually forces the other side off. Repeat… 

Air and Maritime Operations 

President Zelenskyy reported that Russian forces launched more than 1,700 strike drones, 1,380 glide bombs and 69 missiles into Ukrainian during the period from January 18th through January 25th.

DTEK reports that their power generation capacity is only 30-40% of its nominal installed capacity and that they have sustained $64 billion in damage. Ukrainian citizens are now averaging 3 to 4 hours of electricity per day.

During the night of January 25th-January 26th, Russian forces launched at least 138 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad,  and Sumy oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 7 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

During the night of January 24th-January 25th, Russian forces launched at least 2 x Ballistic missiles (not further identified) and 102 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 87 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target; there is no report yet as to the extent of new damage. As of Sunday the Mayor noted that 1,676 apartment buildings were without power following the latest strikes.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 dead and 3 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

The Ukrainian MinDef reported that on Saturday Russian forces used Shahed drones to attack a Ukrainian airfield, with the link via Starlink vice another drone; this is the second reported use of Starlink to control strike drones, the previous use being on January 15th (this year).

During the night of January 23rd-January 24th, Russian forces launched at least 2 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 6 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 12 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 375 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 5 ballistic missiles, 9 Kh-22 cruise missiles, the K—59/69 cruise missile and 357 drones. 

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Kyiv oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. There was a blackout in Chernihiv, and 800,000 people were without power in the greater Kyiv area, at least 2,000 houses have no heat, 6,000 houses have only limited heat, blackouts also in Dnipro city.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 dead and 31 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 9 towns.

During the night of January 22nd-January 23rd, Russian forces launched at least 101 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 76 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. There was an initial report this afternoon that Russian forces have struck the thermal power plant in Slovyansk. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 10 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan23 Jan26

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 65.78 65.41

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 61.02 60.55

NG       3.97        3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 5.23 6.11

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.21 5.25

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 75.70 76.46

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.15 43.00

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 54.76 55.51

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 55.47 57.06

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 59.72 61.40

Note the price of natural gas, which is a direct response to increased demand for emergency power - natural gas powered turbine generators - across large areas of the entire northern hemisphere.

Thoughts

Ukrainian and Russian and US negotiators met in the UAE, in what were said to be “very productive” and “constructive.” I recall being told by a State Department fellow many years ago (who was engaged in some negotiations with a US ally), that “productive” meant both sides learned how much the other side hated them, but constructive meant that, after telling each other to engage in a physical impossibility, they had agreed to meet again. So, next meeting February 1st.

The slow collapses of the Myrnohrad pocket serves to again underline the nature of this war: it IS a slow grind, a deliberate war of attrition. Russian forces are pushing forward very slowly, as they inflict casualties. And, yes, they are taking casualties, but clearly at a rate they can accept. The particular way of war the Russians have settled on is one with very low risk of losing. Ukrainian forces can move more quickly but they have yet to demonstrate that they can sustain the high loss rates in personnel, and as a result, they slowly keep giving ground. It appears that Myrnohrad will soon be overrun by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will have inflicted casualties in the Russians, but probably in roughly the same number as they have suffered. Myrnohrad itself will have been reduced mainly to rubble. The Russians will slowly grind on.

As for claims on both sides that the other side is nearing collapse, that is a mix of propaganda and semantics. Russian forces are not being “devastated” by Ukrainian forces. Casualties mount every day, but the Russians are managing it. Ukraine’s line will not crumble into dust.

If there is an eventual “collapse” of the Ukrainian line, it will be nearly invisible for quite some time. The only collapse will be a situation where the Ukrainian forces have no reserve unit to fill in when a seam is exposed to Russian attack. If such an event occurs, the Russian will not pour through, a la a Panzer attack into France. If there were no army in front of them the Russians would move forward, but expect that pace to be no more than that of a steady walk. Their movements are likely to be very slow and deliberate. Even this past August when Russian recon elements found a large gap north-north-east of Pokrovsk, Russian recon units moved 15 miles over the course of 2 days and then Russian forces never sent more than several battalions to hold the entire salient.

v/r pete