January 27th, 2026

Politics - Baltic Sea to be closed to “Shadow Fleet”

- EU Membership and Ukraine’s Security

Combat Ops - Russian gains west of Siversk

- Pressure on Kostiantinivka and Hulyaipole

- Cold weather to worsen next week

Weather

The cold weather eases just a bit this week, as rain and then snow move in, but returning to very cold weather next week; with wind chills of minus 20 possible in some areas, to include Kyiv.

Cloud cover over much of the country will degrade commercial satellite imaging, limiting assessment of changes to the front lines.

Kharkiv

17 and cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Ice - rain - snow mix tonight and for the following 4 days, clouds may break a little begging Sunday. A bit warmer for the next four days, lows near 30, highs in the mid 30s. But next week very cold, high of 14 on Saturday, then daily highs in single digits all next week, wind chills minus 10 or worse. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

24 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, except Wednesday afternoon, rain turning to snow Friday through Monday. Temperatures in the 30s Wednesday through Saturday, then back into the 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

24 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Freezing rain or snow tonight and through Wednesday and Thursday. Cloudy Friday then partly cloudy for the following week, Daily temperatures in the upper 20s to 30, through Thursday, then colder, in the teens on Friday, then into single digits through next week, several days of extreme cold, highs near zero, wind chills of minus 20 or more possible.. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

14 European countries have announced they will close the Baltic Sea to Russia’s “Shadow Fleet.” Ships that conceal their origin, change flags, switch off transponders, or operate without proper documentation will be considered as vessels without nationality and accordingly may be detained.

The 14 countries are: Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The statement reads:

We, the Coastal States of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea (Belgium, Denmark,

Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway. Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom) with Iceland, are approaching the International Maritime Community, especially flag and port states, national authorities, flag registries, classification societies, shipping companies, managers and operators as well as seafarers, with this letter.

Dear Members of the International Maritime Community, Modern maritime transport is fundamentally built on the reliability of satellite-based navigation. For over three decades, global shipping has advanced by developing vessel operations to increasingly depend on the position, timing, and navigation (PTN) data provided by satellite systems. This shift has brought great efficiency but has also created a new dependency.

The accurate and uninterrupted functioning of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is not a technical luxury; it is a critical safety requirement. GNSS signals support not only ship navigation but also precise time synchronisation vital for systems such as the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS). Disruption of these signals is a risk to the safety and reliability of maritime transport. We are now facing new emerging safety situations due to growing GNSS interference in European waters, particularly in the Baltic Sea region. These disturbances, originating from the Russian Federation, degrade the safety of international shipping. All vessels are at risk.

The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration was demanding Ukraine concede territory to Russia. The White House has denied this.

Anna Kelly, deputy White House press secretary, commented

"This is totally false — the US's only role in the peacemaking process is to bring both sides together to make a deal.”

President Zelenskyy considered EU membership - by 2027 - as a key element of Ukrainian security.

"Ukraine's accession to the European Union is one of the key security guarantees not only for us, but for the whole of Europe. After all, the common strength of Europe is possible, among other things, thanks to Ukraine's security, technological and economic contributions. That is why we are talking about a specific date - 2027 - and we count on our partners to support our position.”

EU membership requires unanimous agreement among current members. Hungary and several other countries are opposed to Ukrainian membership, Germany and Slovakia at least partly so, Hungary adamantly so.

Hungarian PM Orban said that he would summon Ukraine’s ambassador to discuss what Orban has labeled as interference in Hungarian parliamentary elections in April (April 12th).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KKHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and Ukrainian military reporting notes that Russian forces have pushed back into Andrivka as of the 25th, placing them roughly 14 miles north of Sumy City.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv and Ukrainian military sources confirmed Russian forces have taken Dehtyarne and pushed west from there and have now also taken Nesterne (the next village to the west, with a population of less than 200 (before the war).

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area, particularly east and south-east of Kupyansk, as well as in the area north-east of Borova, but there were no changes to the front lines in either area.

Fighting continues around Lyman, and south-east of Lyman, and in the terrain west of Siversk. Imagery confirmed Russian gains in several areas (probably last week) and that the front line east of Slovyansk runs from Zakitne (about 15 miles east of Slovyansk, on the Donets River), south of Platonivka (just to the east of Zakitne), then arcs to the south to the area of Riznykivka and then on to the area of Pazeno (a small town about 10 miles due north of Bakhmut). The imagery also suggests that several towns and villages east of that line, which had been holding, have now been taken by the Russians.

Imagery also confirmed Russian forces are in the east side of Lyman, and advancing up Pushkin Street, the major road along the east side of the town.

I’m not certain, but it appears that Ukrainian forces ceded the fight for some of these small villages after it became clear that the Russians had the high ground in the middle (just west of Siversk), and had brought the relevant ground lines of communication under direct fire, and those Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to defensive lines east of but closer to Slovyansk.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Russian forces remained on the attack in eastern Kostiantinivka, as well as in villages in an arc from the south-west to east to north-east, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further to the west, Russian forces were noted active in Novyi Donbas (about 10 miles north of Pokrovsk) and appear to control the town of Ivanivka, immediately east of that town.

In the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, and Ukrainian forces still appear to hold position in both cities, though Ukrainian forces reporting shows the areas controlled by Ukrainian forces slowly shrinking.

Further to the south-west, fighting continues in and around Novopavlivka, but here were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Vovcha River and Hairchur River but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

Fighting also continues in and around Hulyaipole, and there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

However, Ukrainian forces reporting suggests that Russian forces pushing on Hulyaipole from the east have now reached the T0401 roadway and control everything east of that road. Russian forces also appear to control all but a small wedge of the city north of the T0814 roadway. Fighting was noted in the city center, where these two roadways come together.

Fighting continued across Southern Ukraine but there was no significant activity to report.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 26th-January 27th, Russian forces launched at least 165 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 135 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 killed and 37 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

As of last night 926 houses and apartment buildings inside Kyiv were still without heating

In Kharkiv, 80% of the city was said to be without electricity as of yesterday afternoon.

During the night of January 25th-January 26th Ukrainian drones struck the Slavyansk oil refinery (about 50 miles east of the Kerch Strait), and claim they hit the processing plant. Authorities in Krasnodar Krai reported drone strikes at the refinery on the 26th; extent of hte damage is unknown.

DTEK reported on the 26th that their power generation capacity was only 30-40% of its nominal installed capacity and that they have sustained $64 billion in damage. Ukrainian citizens are now averaging 3 to 4 hours of electricity per day.

During the night of January 25th-January 26th, Russian forces launched at least 138 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 7 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan26 Jan27

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 65.41 66.13

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 60.55 61.17

NG       3.97        3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 6.11 6.03

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.25 5.22

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.46 76.23

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.00 42.87

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 55.51 56.10

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 57.06 58.09

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 61.40 60.09

Natural gas prices continue to reflect increased demand due to extreme cold in the northern hemisphere.

Thoughts

There are some interesting propaganda wars going on between Kyiv and Moscow with each side claiming to be “devastating” the enemy. What is of note is that Ukrainian forces have begun to tell of a new strategy of using more sophisticated drones and more sophisticated tactics to create deeper “kill zones” as an attrition tactic and the claim that Russian forces recruitment is now falling well behind the casualty numbers.

Part of this “reporting” was focused on the fight for Siversk, asserting that the Russian capture of Siversk in the last few weeks was a trap that the Ukrainian forces has set up and that the Russian army had walked into the trap and were being “slaughtered.”

As has been true for the entire war, there are no good casualty figures, but there is no reporting - except for several streams that originate in Ukrainian army HQ - that support any sort of large scale slaughter of Russians. (There is an analogous stream out of Moscow.)

But what is of concern is that both Ukrainian and Russian propaganda have regularly shifted propaganda into high gear when they are suffering a setback. Thus, the Ukrainian claims of massive Russian casualties as the Russians grind forward - and the Ukrainians are forced to withdraw. Talk of Russian forces suffering “devastating blows” and Russian leadership calling for “meat assaults” might be an indication that Ukrainian forces are suffering higher losses than expected and are losing ground in several key cities.

Compared to the pace of this war since the fall of 2022, the Russian fight for Hulyaipole and for Kostiantinivka, and the advance on Slovyansk in the last several months, have been substantially quicker and it is possible these advances - and the propaganda - and the suggestion of new, drone-centric tactics, are indicators of a problem with adequate numbers of trained infantry in the Ukrainian army.

v/r pete