January 29th, 2026

Politics - SecState Rubio: Security Guarantees means the US

- Land (the Donbas) is the one issue

- Chancellor Merz: No EU membership in 2027

Combat Ops - Marginal changes on the ground

Weather

The cold weather eases just a bit for a day or two, as rain and then snow moves in, but returning to very cold weather next week; with wind chills of minus 20 possible in some areas, or lower in Kyiv.

Cloud cover over much of the country for the next several days will continue to degrade commercial satellite imaging, limiting assessment of changes to the front lines.

Kharkiv

37 and light rain. cloudy. Ice - rain - snow mix continues through Saturday, then clearing and colder. Temperatures start dropping Friday midday, in the teens all day Saturday, zero by Sunday at dawn. Daily highs from Sunday through Wednesday will be in the low single digits, wind chills well below zero. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

41 and light rain, gusting to 20. Cloudy with rain or snow through Saturday night, then some clearing. Temperatures will fall starting Saturday afternoon, in the teens by Sunday morning. Daily highs through next Thursday around 20, low single digits at night, wind chills below zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

26 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy tomorrow Friday and Saturday morning, then 4 days of sun. Temperature will start dropping this afternoon, low teens by sunrise tomorrow. Then a little colder each succeeding day. Wednesday temperature at dawn forecast to be minus 14 (-26C), high for that day forecast as zero. Wind chills for the next week remain below zero all day, just before dawn could reach minus 30 (-34C). Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

1,000 Ukrainian bodies were returned yesterday, as well as 38 Russian bodies returned.

Since the two sides started returning bodies last year Russia has returned 17,070 Ukrainian bodies, Ukraine has returned 229 Russian bodies.

SecState Rubio commented to Senators on the US policy on NATO and any security guarantee for Ukraine:

“There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French and UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years… Now, hopefully that's going to change. Hopefully that is changing, and in some cases, and in some particular countries, it's already changed. But this is a fact that we cannot ignore.”

Rubio also commented directly on the negotiations, stating that the issue of possession of the Donbas remains the key issue:

"I know there’s active work going to try to see if both sides’ views on that can’t be reconciled. It’s still a bridge we haven’t crossed.” 

“It’s still a gap, but at least we’ve been able to narrow down the issue set to one central one, and it will probably be a very difficult one.”

The next round of talks will February 1st in the UAE, but Rubio said that Ambassador Witkoff and Presidential Advisor Kushner won’t attend.

"There may be a US presence, but it won't be Steve and Jared, and we're trying to move forward.”

Germany’s Chancellor Merz commented on Ukraine’s entry into the EU in 2027:

"Accession on January 1, 2027 is excluded. It is impossible.”

Merz went on to say that full compliance with the Copenhagen criteria, as well as adopting EU standards, take more time.

"We can gradually bring Ukraine closer to the European Union. This is always possible, but such a quick accession is simply not advisable.”

As of this morning, Mayor Klitschko reported 639 apartment buildings in Kyiv still have no heat.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. There were Russian blogger reports suggesting additional Russian probes across the border east of Sumy city but there is nothing to confirm these reports.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv City, as well as along the border north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines in these area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed a Russian recon probe into Kutkivka (about 11 miles north of Kupyansk), the first confirmed activity in this area in several months. 

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, and the pocket east and south of Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Russian operations continue north-east and east of Borova, but there were no changes to the front lines.

In the general area east of Slovyansk (the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk general area) fighting continues and Ukrainian reporting notes increased levels of activity and suggestions that Russians are moving additional troops into the area - particularly in the Serebrianske forest (just north of the Donets River, north-west of Siversk) in preparation for a more focused assault on Slovyansk and the small towns just east of it.

Ukrainian reporting also notes increased Russian drone strikes on the ground lines of communication (GLOC) into the Slovyansk area.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues north-west and south-west of Bakhmut, and probes continue into Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines, despite Russian claims of gains north-west of Bakhmut, near Minkivka (about 7 miles north-west of Bakhmut).

North of Pokrovsk there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

In the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad area fighting remains confused, with Ukrainian forces holding small patches of both cities even as Russian forces try to clear them. At the same time, imagery confirmed a Ukrainian element had pushed back into the north-west corner of Pokrovsk, as Russian forces continue to push on Hryshyne from the south-east.

Further to the south-west, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces were holding terrain in Novopavlivka that had been under Russian control several days ago.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian General Staff reporting confirms that Russian forces continue to straighten lines and taken most of the would-be pocket east of Filliia, north of the Vovcha River.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Operations continue along the Haichur River and inside Hulyaipole, but there are no confirmed changes to the lines in this area or across southern Ukraine to the Dnepr River.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 28th-January 229th, Russian forces launched at least 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 84 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia  oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

At least one civilian has been killed and 6 wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

An RuAF Su-34 was reportedly shot down over the Black Sea early today. 

The Telegraph is reporting that it has identified $10.3 billion of advanced technology sent to Russia by China - no time frame is given. Equipment includes computer controlled (CNC) machines used for precision tooling of parts for missiles, as well as microchips, memory boards, ball bearings, telescopic sights, etc.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian drones struck the Khokholsky Oil Depot in Khokholsky, Voronezh Oblast (about 300 miles south of Moscow, 100 miles east of Ukraine), during the night of January 27th-January 28th. Voronezh Oblast government officials reported drone activity and a fire. There is no report on the extent of damage.

During the night of January 27th-January 28th, Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 146 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 103 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 12 killed and 4 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan28 Jan29

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.15 71.02

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 63.08 66.17

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 6.14 3.79

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.33 5.42

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.30 75.38

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 42.88 42.86

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 54.48 56.28

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 58.46 59.04

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.34 63.33

Oil prices are up over concerns about interruptions in oil flow out of the Mid East if the US acts against Iran.

The huge drop in natural gas prices, despite the cold weather in the northern hemisphere, is an effect of contract rollovers into March. 

Thoughts

SecState Rubio has illuminated, appropriately, two obvious points that needed stating:

There is no security guarantee without the US. 

The issue of Land - the Donbas in particular - is central to any solution.

At the same time, some interesting comments from Ukrainians interviewed on the street (by Al Jazeera), the recurring statements kept distilling down to something like: “Too many people have died for us to simply end the war now.” 

This argument, the “sunk cost” argument, is a horrible place to find yourself, as it makes any sort of negotiated settlement very difficult to reach.

There is a recent assessment on casualties on both sides; I am looking at it right now, and will try to put something together tomorrow.

v/r pete