February 3rd, 2026

Politics - Strikes on Power Grid 

Combat Ops - Russian strike - 521 drones and missiles

- Few gains on ground

Ukraine Rail  - Defaults

Weather

The very cold weather continues for the next several days, then some relatively warmer air (in the 20s) and snow or snow - rain mix. Wind chill will still be very cold.

Kharkiv

5 and mostly clear, windchill -3. Partly cloudy Wednesday, then clouds move in, snow starts Friday night, continues through Sunday. Temperatures will increase a bit each day, by Saturday highs will be in the upper 20s. Monday will return to highs of single digits. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

15 and partly cloudy, windchill single digits. Some sun tomorrow morning then clouding up, cloudy through Monday, rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures rising starting at dawn tomorrow, in the teens Wednesday through Friday morning, in the low 30s Saturday and Sunday, Monday highs back into the teens. Windchills through Friday will still be in single digits. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

3 and clear. Mostly cloudy to cloudy this week, snow showers Thursday through Sunday. Some gradual “warming,” tomorrow morning will start at minus 8 but temperatures will start to climb and Thursday through Sunday will be in the high teens to low 20s. But, next Monday will see temperatures back into single digits. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Russia Security Council Chair Medvedev commented on the offer to the US to extend START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), said that President Putin has offered to extend it for a year if the US agrees, noting that the Doomsday Clock is advancing. START expires on Thursday, February 5th.

Russia targeted the Ukrainian power grid during the night of February 2nd-February 3rd, with President Zelenskyy commenting on it and Minister of Energy Shmyhal showing damage to NATO SecGen Rutte.

President Zelenskyy:

”There was another targeted strike on energy facilities: the russians used a significant amount of ballistic missiles in combination with other missiles - more than 70 and 450 strike drones. The Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv and the capital, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Vinnytsia Regions were hit. As of now, it is known that nine people were injured in the attack. There is damage to ordinary residential buildings and energy infrastructure. In Kyiv, there were fires in high-rise buildings after drone strikes, a kindergarten was damaged. Wherever possible, the necessary services have been involved.”

”And this very clearly demonstrates what is needed from partners and what can help. Timely supply of missiles for air defense systems and protection of normal life is our priority. Without pressure on russia, there will be no end to this war. Now Moscow is choosing terror and escalation, and because of this, maximum pressure is needed. I thank all partners who understand this and help us.”

Later he noted:

"Each such strike by russia confirms that the attitude in Moscow has not changed: they still count on war and the destruction of Ukraine and do not take diplomacy seriously. The work of our negotiating team will be adjusted accordingly.”

In an initial statement Kyiv Mayor Klitschko reported 1,170 ‍residential buildings were without ‌heat. He identified the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts of the city as being particularly hard hit.

"The infrastructure facility that provides heat to these houses was severely damaged tonight. Experts are assessing the extent of its damage and the prospects for restoration.”

Yesterday, Kremlin Spokesman Peskov had insisted that the agreed suspension of attacks on the power grid was only through February 1st, not for a full week.

Earlier, Zelenskyy had noted that during January alone Russia has launched more than 6,000 strike drones, 5,500 glide bombs, and 158 missiles of various types.

Later, Zelenskyy commented:

"Today was a record russian strike using ballistics. There were 28 cruise missiles, as well as 43 more missiles of various types that enter the target on a ballistic trajectory and can only be shot down by the Patriot. This means that missiles are needed for these systems and that the supply is operational.”

He brought this up during his meeting with SecGen Rutte, and the two men discussed the availability of Patriot missiles.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s comments: welcomed in Moscow, anger in Kyiv.

Infantino commented on Monday that the ban on Russian participation had “not achieved anything.”

"We have to [consider readmitting Russia]. Definitely. This ban has achieved nothing; it has only created more frustration and hatred. Allowing boys and girls from Russia to play football in other parts of Europe could help. It’s something we have to do, definitely, at least in the youth categories."

Kremlin Spokesman Peskov noted:

“We have seen these statements [by Infantino], and we welcome them. It’s high time to think about this… Our footballers, our national team, must have their rights fully restored … We hope that sooner or later such discussions will take place in FIFA.”

Ukraine’s Sports Minister Bidnyi called Infantino’s comments “irresponsible” and “infantile.”

“Let me remind you that the Russians have killed more than 650 Ukrainian athletes and coaches during their full-scale aggression… 679 Ukrainian girls and boys will never be able to play football – Russia killed them… And it keeps killing more while moral degenerates suggest lifting bans, despite Russia’s failure to end its war.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. There is an unconfirmed report that Russian troops pushed across the border near the village of Pokrovka, a village with a pre-war population of 771. Pokrovka is the Ukrainian border crossing opposite the Russian town of Kolotilovka, and is about 25 miles south-east of Sumy City.

Imagery of the Vovchansk area, north of Kharkiv, showed small Russian gains, pushing south along Sobrna Street, and have cleared the south side of the city where the road turns into the T2104 roadway.

KUPYANSK AND DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupayansk. Imagery confirms Russian forces in Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces striking them. Imagery also confirms Russian gains just north of Pishchane (about 7 miles east-south-east of Kupyansk).

Fighting continues other the south, but there were no changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area; based on the movement back and forth the engagements, this appears to have shifted into a series of see-saw engagements with each side taking a small piece of terrain and holding it for a few days, then losing it to the other side. The process then repeats.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

There are reports that Russian forces have taken control of Nykyforivka (about 12 miles north of Bakhmut), but these have not been confirmed.

Imagery confirmed Russian gains just south of Novomarkove (5 miles due north of Chasiv Yar). The town sits between two small, east-west ridges, each perhaps 150 to 200 feet above the town and local terrain. The Russians appear to have taken the southern high ground.

Fighting continues north-east, east and south-east of Kostiantinivka, and probes continue into the city, but there is no confirmation that the front line has shifted. That said, it isn’t crystal clear where the front line is, and there may well be a few small Russian elements already dug in, in the east end of the city.

Fighting continues in north-west Pokrovsk and in northern Myrnohrad. Ukrainian forces continue to hold in both these positions, Russian forces are shifting troops into southern Myrnohrad and also into terrain just east of Hryshyne (the town north-west of Pokrovsk). Small elements of both forces remain interspersed with enemy elements. Both sides also continue to report that the enemy is having trouble fighting in the extreme cold, perhaps a deadly case of projection… 

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces just east of Hryshyne pushing north, expanding their control of terrain between that town and Pokrovsk; this movement begins to form an outer block for the Pokrovsk pocket, with Russian troops about 3 miles from Russian troops on the north side of the gap.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

In Hulyaipole, Russian and Ukrainian forces remain engaged in the center of the city and there has been no substantive change in the lines in the city for several weeks, and it would appear that they are engaged in another street-to-street, house-to-house fight. As one Ukrainian army spokesman said of the city: “There is no clear front line anymore - it’s a continuous field of battle."

Fighting continues on most of the front line south of the Vovcha River, and particularly just west of the Haichur River, as Russian forces try to control the river line and the small towns along it, as part of the effort to isolate Hulyaipole and grind down that town. Imagery confirmed Russian troops in Olenokostyantynivka (about 4 miles north-west of Hulyaipole along the river), and Russian troops have pushed into Prydorozhnie, a further 5 miles to the north-west, but neither is in Russian hands at this point.

Russian and Ukrainian forces were in contact across the southern front, from just west of Hulyaipole to the Dnepr River but here were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 2nd-February 3rd Russian forces launched at least 4 x Zircon hypersonic missile, 32 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 7 x Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, 28 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 450 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 23 cruise missiles, 11 Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 Zircon hypersonic missiles, and 412 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being power grid (note comments above), industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. Multiple ballistic missile strikes were reported in Dnipro city and in Kyiv. 

Of note, Patriot missiles did knock down the 4 Zircons. Zircon is reportedly a true maneuvering hypersonic missile, with mid course speed of Mach 8, powered by a ramjet. But, like all hypersonic missiles, Zircon must slow below Mach 5 for the seeker head to “see” anything, or to update positions via satnav (GloNass - Russian analog to GPS).

At least 9 civilians wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

 

During the night of February 1st-February 2nd Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 171 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 157 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. Ukrainian sources are reporting Russian attacks on the power grid in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy; there is no report yet as to the extent of damage. 

It should be noted that there are ongoing efforts to repair the power grid and this may have led to power outages on Sunday. The Ukrainian grid suffered power outages in several oblasts over the weekend. These outages were the result of a mix of existing damage - which has left the grid less robust than a normal power grid, plus the mixing of old and new technologies, ongoing repair work, the need to take some parts of the grid off line while repairs are being carried out, and other unexpected complications. The various facets “added together” cascaded into unexpected power outages.

At least 1 civilian has been killed and 4 wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb2 Feb3

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 66.07 66.42

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 62.01 62.34

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.54 3.23

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.27

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.56 76.96

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.07 43.25

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.76 53.26

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 60.91 58.80

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 60.87 61.07

Rating Agency Fitch has downgraded Ukrainian Railways Eurobonds from C to D (default), after defaulting on $703. Million in securities on January 22nd, and a further $353 million on January 27th.

Thoughts

One of my smart correspondents pointed out that this is the first truly harsh winter of the war: the last three winters have bene, in relative terms, mild. And that is changing the how the war is being fought. Whether that will be a short-lived change or will shift the whole war remains to be seen, but my guess is that it will be a function of how long winter pushes into spring.

But this harsh winter obviously makes the attacks on the power grid that much more significant.

As I noted above, problems with the power grid can have a “negative synergy” as a loss of power in one area overloads an adjacent section of the grid and you get accelerating degradation across the system. On top of that, as has been noted since the first winter, many parts of the Ukrainian power grid are Soviet elements, old, outdated, and in many cases not able to easily work with modern, western replacement and repair parts. This makes every “fix’ that much more complicated.

Some have interpreted Medvedev’s comments on START as a thinly veiled nuclear threat, with the idea that the US would agree to the extension and grant negotiation concessions to Russia in any Ukrainian settlement in exchange for that extension.

I think there may be more to it: Russia does not want to have to accept any sort of challenge from the US in a new round of nuclear force improvements. Nuclear forces are too expensive and the Russians have other systems they need to procure. Meanwhile, the US is already at the start of an extensive nuclear force modernization, President Trump has already mentioned retuning nuclear weapons to sea (the Defiant class battleships would be nuclear armed) and the US is clear that any future nuclear arms talks needs to include China, that is, be tri-lateral. Simply extending START leaves China with no limitations and leaves the US trying to make Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), a bilateral strategy, fit with China; three-way duels don’t work. 

Accordingly, there would seem to be no real value in the US extending START without a major concession from Russia.

v/r pete