February 4th, 2026

Politics - First day of talks concluded in Dubai

- Meet again tomorrow

Combat Ops - Yesterday’s strike damage extensive

- Russian gains around Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole 

Weather

The cold weather continues for the next several days, then some relatively warmer air (in the 20s) and snow or snow - rain mix. Wind chill will still be very cold.

Kharkiv

8 and partly cloudy, windchill 2. Cloudy tomorrow through Monday, freezing rain or snow on weekend. Thursday and Friday highs in the teens, weekend highs in the upper 20s, Sunday night the very cold weather returns. Except for the weekend, windchills will remain at or below zero. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

19 and partly cloudy, windchill single digits. Cloudy through Monday morning, rain Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures in the teens to low 20s Thursday and Friday, in the 30s Saturday and Sunday, then cold weather returns next week. Windchills through Friday will still be in single digits. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

8 and cloudy, windchill -5, snow showers later tonight. Cloudy into Monday, snow showers tomorrow and on the weekend. Temperatures slightly warmer, highs in the low 20s through Sunday, then colder. Windchills in single digits except Sunday, will rise into the teens. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

The first day of talks have concluded in Dubai, UAE; no details were released; talks will resume tomorrow

Ukraine’s lead negotiator, Defense Secretary Umierov, commented: 

"The work was substantive and productive, focused on concrete steps and practical solutions. We are preparing a report for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”

Ukrainian delegation :

• Rustem Umierov
• Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the President's Office
• First Deputy Serhii Kyslytsia
• Davyd Arakhamiia, leader of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction
• Andrii Hnatov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces
• Oleksandr Bevz, Presidential Advisor

US Delegation:

• Special Envoy Ambassador Witkoff
• Presidential Advisor Kushner and 
• Presidential Adviser Gruenbaum
• Army Secretary Driscoll
• General Grynkewich, SACEUR

Russian Delegation:

- Admiral Kostyukov, Director Main Intelligence Directorate, General Staff

Other members? A mystery

The 203 foot tall, Soviet, titanium “Motherland” (Rodina) statue, erected in 1979, was damaged during last night’s strikes into Kyiv.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

KUPYANSK AND DONETS RIVER

Fighting still continues in Kupyansk and to the east and south-east of that city, as well as further south in the general area north-east and east of Borova, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

Fighting continues in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area; imagery confirmed Russian gains just north of Lyman, as Russian forces have pushed into the southern tip of the village off Stalky (about 3-4 miles north-east of Lyman), and are advancing down the O0526 roadway.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

A great deal of fighting continues to be reported north, north-east, east and south-east of Kostiantinivka, and there continue to be Russian probes into the city. The reporting varies from source to source, but there is more than a square mile of eastern Kostiantinivka which may or may not be under Russian control, but it is clearly not under Ukrainian control.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad area, Russian forces remain active and imagery shows Russian gains in the town of Zatyshok, about 6-7 miles north-north-east of Pokrovsk.

In the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad pocket, imagery confirmed Russian forces made gains pushing into the center of the pocket from the north, just to the west of Rivne, and the gap between northern and southern Russian forces is now less than a mile and may be less than 1,000 yards. All of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad has now been at one time or another held by Russian forces and the fight has devolved into a patchwork of building-to-building, house-to-house fights. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Vovcha and Haichur Rivers but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines north-west of Hulyaipole.

Just to the south of Hulyaipole imagery confirmed Russian gains north-west of the village of Dorozhyanka (a village of about 300 before the war). This furthers extends to the north-west the “lower jaw” of the envelopment of Hulyaipole, with the northern and southern jaws being at most 6nm apart, and Hulyaipole at the north-east corner, 5 miles from the west-facing opening. The only logistic line (GLOC) into the pocket is the T0814 roadway, at most 3 miles from Russian positions.

Fighting was again reported upriver from Kherson city, near the Antonovskyi Bridge, to include reports or Russian artillery and FPV drone strikes across the river.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 3rd-February 4th Russian forces launched at least 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 88 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. A drone also struck a market in Druzhkivka, killing at least 7 and wounding 15.

At least 9 civilians killed and 36 civilians wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 7 towns.

Imagery from Monday confirmed two coordinated ballistic missile - drone strikes by Russian forces against HIMARS launchers in the Kharkiv area; one was located about 30 miles south-east of Kharkiv city, about 22 miles behind the lines, the second about 20 miles north-west of Kharkiv, about 15 miles south of the Ukraine - Russia border. Russian reconnaissance and “quick-strike” response to mobile targets continues to improve.

Russian forces have used a Gerbera drone to carry an FPV (first person video) strike drone. Gerbera is a Russian produced variant of the Iranian Shahed drone, built using low-cost parts (parts of the body are styrene foam, and the use a small, Chinese made gasoline engine, for example). Gerberas cost about $10,000 each, versus a Shahed which costs between $150,000 and $200,000 each. The range is variously said to be 180 - 360 miles (300 - 600 KM).

Post strike reports from yesterday’s strike noted:

- 1,170 apartment buildings were without heat in Kyiv

- 200,000 people in Kharkiv were without power

- 50,000 people were without power in Odessa

-  50 towns in Vinnytsia were without power

During the night of February 2nd-February 3rd Russian forces launched at least 4 x Zircon hypersonic missile, 32 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 7 x Kh-22/32 cruise missiles, 28 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 450 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 23 cruise missiles, 11 Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 Zircon hypersonic missiles, and 412 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being power grid (note BDA above), industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. Multiple ballistic missile strikes were reported in Dnipro city and in Kyiv. 

Of note, Patriot missiles did knock down the 4 Zircons. Zircon is reportedly a true maneuvering hypersonic missile, with mid course speed of Mach 8, powered by a ramjet. But, like all hypersonic missiles, Zircon must slow below Mach 5 for the seeker head to “see” anything, or to update positions via satnav (GloNass - Russian analog to GPS).

At least 9 civilians wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb3 Feb4

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 66.42 67.60

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 62.34 63.37

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.23 3.43

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.27 5.23

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.96 76.14

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.25 43.11

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 53.26 53.84

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 58.80 58.98

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 61.07 63.08

Thoughts

Waiting to see what emerges from the talks tomorrow, if anything… 

v/r pete