February 10th, 2026

Politics - 1400 buildings in Kyiv without heat

- Nothing new on attempted assassination

- Zelenskyy calls for improvements in air defense

Combat ops - Small gains by both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

16 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain Saturday and Sunday. Cold tomorrow but warming tomorrow night, Thursday through Monday temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, then the cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

23 and clear. Partly cloudy and in the 20s tomorrow, then clouding up but warmer. Cloudy through next week, temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, rain on Saturday and Sunday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

15 and sunny, gusting over 20, windchill 3. Clouding up tonight, cloudy for the next week, snow Sunday and into Monday morning. Warming tomorrow, temperatures in the 20s, then Thursday through Saturday temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Sunday temperatures will start to fall, back into the teens by Monday night. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Kyiv’s Mayor Klitschko reported this mooring that there are still 1,400 apartment buildings in Kyiv with heat; 1,126 of them in the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi Districts and cannot get heat because the Darnytsia Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHPP) has been severely damaged, and there is no means to supply them with heat without the power plant.

There have been only 10 confirmed deaths this winter - civilians freezing to death - but this is said to be because the way data is collected, preventing an accurate count until after winter ends.

But, estimates now suggest more than 200 civilians have already died from the cold so far this year.

An additional 18 are known to have died from carbon dioxide poisoning, having started wood fires to keep warm but in buildings with inadequate ventilation. And the number of Ukrainians suffering cardiovascular problems is reportedly soaring, but, again, there are no hard numbers.

There is little new on the attempted assassination of LTGEN Alexeyev, Deputy Director of Russia’s GRU. Russia insists the two men (Lyubomir Korba, a Russian - the shooter, and Viktor Vasin, a Ukrainian), in custody have confessed. A third individual, Zinaida Serebritskaya, has been named by the Russians, but what exactly her role was has not been said. The GRU has also accused the Polish government of assisting the attackers.

President Zelenskyy poked at the UAF to improve their response to Russian attacks.

"The Air Forces must act much more quickly to increase its ability to protect Kharkiv and other regions bordering Russia from Shaheds and other attack drones. Ukraine does not have time to wait for individual elements of the Air Forces to adjust.”

He later commented:

"Today I had a lengthy conversation with the military – the commander-in-chief [of the Armed Forces of Ukraine], the chief of the General Staff and the defence minister of Ukraine. There are significant changes underway in the way air defence works. In some oblasts the system is being almost completely restructured – interceptors, mobile fire groups, and the entire short-range air defence component.”

Not much new in negotiations; Russian ForMin Lavrov made an extreme statement on Russian requirements - basically the same as President Putin made immediately prior to the start of the war (which would make Ukraine a vassal state), and accused the US of reneging on a de facto understanding reached in Alaska.

Ground Operations

SUMY ASND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv City but there were no changes in these areas. However, imagery confirmed that Russian forces had pushed across the border and have pushed into the town of Pokrovka (about 25 miles east-south-east of Sumy City. Pokrovka was the site of a border crossing (the Russian town of Kolotilovka is just on the other side of the border), and remained open until August, 2024 as the site for exchanges of personnel, particularly humanitarian exchanges.

East of Kharkiv, along the border north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed fighting in the Ukrainian border town of Chuhunivka (about 16 miles north of the Oskil River). Imagery appears to show Ukrainian forces pushing into the town from the west and Russian forces apparently occupying the center of the town. Ukrainian forces claimed to have cleared the entire town; Chuhunivka is a small village (basically one street lined with houses) about a mile inside Ukraine along the T2104 roadway.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and imagery confirmed Russian attacks into Podoly and Petropavlivka, south-east of Kupyansk.

Ukrainian forces state they have control over Kupyansk but several small Russian elements (each smaller than a platoon in size) continue to hold ground inside the city.

Fighting was also reported south to the Lyman area but there were no changes in the lines.

In the Lyman - Slovyansk - Siversk area imagery confirmed small Russian gains into eastern Lyman.

South-east of Slovyansk, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have pushed west from Bondarne. Imagery over the weekend showed Ukrainian forces had pushed into Nykyforivka (2.5 miles north-west of Bondarne), and were pushing south-east down Zarichne street to Bondarne. Russian forces have now re-attacked and are pushing west from the town and have regained some of that land. This land is all open farmland with one small reservoir between the two towns.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed Russian forces moving along International Street in southern Kostianitnivka, about a block south-east of T0504 roadway and 3 blocks north-east of the train station. This is, or was, a very residential area of the city, small houses and small yards, each house separated by just a few yards from its neighbor. The T0504 roadway, which runs north-east — south-west, is almost completely under Russian control. But the 3 mile stretch that runs through Kostiantinivka is still in Ukrainian hands and they appear to be using it as a defensive line as they work to hold the city. 

Fighting continues north of Pokrovsk and in the Pokrovsk area, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines. Reporting continues to reflect Ukrainian elements encircled inside Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk, but the Russians appear to have control over both cities, and from Rodysnke southward to Rivne, everything east of the T0515 roadway (the Myrnohrad pocket) is clearly under Russian control.

Fighting continued to the south-west, toward Novopavlivka and the Vovcha River, but there were no changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian Forces continue efforts to consolidate Hulyaipole and the string of villages along the Haichur River, and Ukrainian forces continue to push back. Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces pushed back into Ternuvate and Strarnokrainka, north-west of Hulyaipole (west of the Haichur River), and there is speculation by some bloggers that Ukraine has started a counter-offensive in this area. 

Fighting continues inside Hulyaipole as Russian forces clear Ukrainian elements encircled in the town, and there are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains south-west of the city.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 9th-February 10th Russian forces launched at least 125 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are reports of at least 4 injured civilians.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 9 towns.

During the night of February 8th-February 9th Russian forces launched at least 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 116 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporozhzia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses; this included a strike on a NaftoGaz Group natural gas facility in Poltava.

There are reports of at least 4 injured civilians.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb10

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 68.78

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 63.95

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.12

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.29

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.40

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.10

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.94

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 61.74

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 64.27

India announced it will end direct purchase of Russian oil. There are current contracts that expire in March, but there appear to be no contracts for April. One refinery, backed by Russian money, is scheduled to be shut down at the end of March for maintenance. There is speculation it will be allowed to purchase Russian oil when it reopens but that is still tentative.

Thoughts

There are claims of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in southern Ukraine (in the general area between Hulyaipole and the Vovcha River), though Ukrainian forces spokesmen deny this. Ukrainian Southern Command does contend that Ukrainian forces have pushed back on Russian gains and retaken several towns, but suggests that the real issue here is that Russian commanders have been inflating reports of battlefield successes and now creating reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks so they can trim some of their more egregious claims and make the maps more closely align with reality.

Two thoughts: 

1) Both sides have both exaggerated their battlefield successes and downplayed their battlefield losses; that is to be expected. At the same time, both sides have used claims of battlefield successes in one area in an attempt to mislead the other side to shift forces, with some small successes. These events have only become clear weeks to months after the shift of forces; if that is happening here it will take a while to sort out.

2) If the Ukrainians are engaged in some sort of counter-offensive in the south, it is an interesting gamble, as it would require moving some forces from one area of the line - weakening the line in one area - in the hope of a gain elsewhere. Looking at the Russian force presence in the south - and at the continued efforts of Russian engineers to improve and expand defensive positions, it would be doubtful Ukrainian forces could build adequate combat mass, and logistical tail, to make a deep thrust. Perhaps, but a real gamble. 

That said, driving into the Russian gains in the south might recover some terrain before Russian engineers have time to build the next defensive positions, forward of the defensive positions they built last year.

And, it might well be that such an event, whether it succeeded all the way or just became a hard thrust and reclaiming of some small slice of territory, might be a necessary morale boost for the army and the country.

In any case, it should sort out in the next several weeks to month.

v/r pete