February 27th, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy comments on recovering all land

- EU extends “temporary protection”

- IMF approves new loan

Combat Ops - Kostiantinivka - very active front lines

- Ukrainian counter-offensive in south continents to slowly churn

Weather

Kharkiv

33 and sunny. Clouding up tonight, cloudy for the next week except Sunday afternoon, which should be sunny. Daily lows in the 20s, in the 30s on  Saturday, in the 40s Sunday and Monday, then cooling a bit next week, back into the 20s and 30s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

42 and sunny. Mostly sunny through Monday afternoon. Daily lows will be in the upper 20 to low 30s, highs in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and cloudy. Clouds will clear Saturday afternoon, Sunday will be sunny, then clouds return. Through the weekend lows will be in the 20s, highs in the upper 30s, then several days of lows and highs in the 30s; wind chills may still dip into the teens at night.Winds from the south-west, 10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of recovering Ukraine’s 1991 borders by force:

"Returning all our land today is very difficult. This would mean too many human casualties.” 

He stressed that Ukraine is not going to voluntarily give up territory, but he thinks that there is a “Window of Opportunity” between now and the US elections in November to end the war peacefully. He did add in an interview that only the Ukrainian people can make the final decision on Ukrainian territory.

The EU has extended “temporary protection” to all Ukrainians in the EU. When asked if that included military age males, the European Commission spokesman responded:

"Temporary protection is something that we have decided at EU level, at member state level until 2027, so until next year, March, the current rules are in force. And this is what I can say at the moment."

An estimated 4.3 million Ukrainians currently have “temporary protection” in the EU.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a new $8.1 billion loan to Ukraine, as announced by Ukrainian PM Svyrydenko:

"The first tranche - about USD 1.5 billion - will arrive in Ukraine in the near future. The funds will be used to finance the budget deficit and support macro-financial stability… The program supported by the IMF is part of a broader financial framework designed to cover the projected state budget deficit of USD 136.5 billion over four years… The partners confirmed the extension of the current moratorium on servicing official debt and the readiness to complete the restructuring after the situation stabilizes.”

President Macron commented that France has replaced the US as Ukraine’s key partner in intelligence support.

Ukraine’s Commissioner for Missing Persons Artur Dobroserdov reported that there are more than 90,000 missing persons since the start of the war. This number includes military personnel as well as civilians including children.

Previously (more than a year ago), when the Commission reported the number as “in excess of 50,000,” they admitted privately that the vast majority of them were military and that they knew that most of them were dead.

Polish officials report that they found 4 tunnels dug under the border fences, from Belarus into Poland, and that 180 men have used the tunnels to enter Poland. They did not say what the time frame was, except that it occurred in 2025. The tunnels are 60 meters (about 200 feet) in length, so, presumably just under the border fences. The officials stated that the Belarus government “recruited experts” from the Mid East to design the tunnels

The tunnels were approximately 5 feet high, reinforced with concrete and were said to be similar to the tunnels Hamas had constructed under Gaza. One tunnel began 50 meters (165 feet) inside Belarus, and extended about 10 meters (33 feet) beyond the fence into Poland. The 180 men who illegally entered Poland were primarily from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Most of the Poland - Belarus border is a single heavy chain link fence with regularly spaced surveillance cameras and a dirt road. In multiple spots woods and farmland abut the road. 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city and south-east of Sumy city near Pokrovka. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces made small gains south of Varachyne (due north of Sumy city). Varachyne was a small village (less than 100 people), surrounded by manicured farmland.

Fighting continued north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed charges in the line.

East of Kharkiv, on the border north of the Oskil River, Russian forces claimed to have seized the small town of Chuhunivka, the small border town where the T2104 roadway crosses into Russia. If the Russian report is accurate, the town has now changed hands 3 times in the last 3 weeks

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Ukrainian forces continue clearing efforts in Kupyansk. Interestingly, the reporting is a bit contradictory, with Ukrainian and Russian forces still engaged in fighting in the city despite the Russians clearly having been forced out and the Ukrainians being shown in video to have control of the city. What it really speaks to is how tenacious both sides can be in holding small pieces of terrain and simply refusing to yield. Ukrainian forces do in fact control the city. And Russian forces, having been for the most part forced out, retain a small “toe hold” on parts of the city, and have resumed conducting recon probes back into the rest of the city.

Fighting also continues east and south-east of Kupyansk, as well as east and north-east of Borova, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines in these areas.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, fighting continues in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area, but there were no changes to the front lines.

In and around Kostiantinivka, both Russian and Ukrainian forces have been very aggressive in the last few days and there is a constant churn along the lines as Russian forces keep probing and Ukrainian forces keep making attempts to retake pieces of terrain. Imagery confirmed Russian forces have occupied most of the terrain immediately south-east of Kostiantinivka, yet at the same time, Ukrainian forces have carved out 3 lodgments in that same area (in the town of Ivanopillia).

Imagery also confirmed that Russian forces have moved into the north-east corner of Kostiantinivka, but they clearly do not control it, and there is a Ukrainian element holding another lodgment in the middle of the area that the Russians have swept through.

All in all, it seems another “checker-board” is developing over much of the eastern end of Kostiantinivka. As a reminder the city west of the T0516 roadway and north of the T0504 roadway (west of the Kryvyi Torets River) is built on a small bluff (about 100 feet higher than the rest of the city). This will make the south-west the preferred axis to attack the city as that terrain is the same elevation.

North of Pokrovsk are there were no confirmed changes.

Imagery did confirm Russian gains north-west of Pokrovsk, as Russian forces pushed westward into the south side of Hryshyne, just north-west of Pokrovsk.

Fighting continues further west and south-west from Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

The small Ukrainian counter-attack continues to grind but has made no further gains in the terrain south of Verbove. There was a good deal of reporting of fighting north-west of Hulyaipole and Russian sources claim multiple gains in the towns of Prydorozhnie, Pryluky and Varvarivka (all three north-west of Hukyaipole), but none of these reports have been confirmed. The latter two seem possible, but Prydorozhnie would require a very aggressive push or a broad seam in the Ukrainian defenses.

Further west, along the Dnepr, imagery confirmed Russian gains in the terrain just east of the town of Prymorske. This places Russian forces within 12 miles of the center of the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of February 26th-February 27th Russian forces launched at least 187 strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 165 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and natural gas facilities. 

Civilian casualties include at least 2 killed and 1 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.

Authorities in Kharkiv report that a Russian fiber-optic FPV drone struck a car on the M03 roadway on the north side of Kharkiv, at least 13 miles from the nearest Russian controlled terrain.

Ukrainian forces Ukrainian have commented that the loss of Starlink for command and control has caused 20-40% reduction in Russian drone effectiveness.

It isn’t exactly clear how they are measuring effectiveness, but they estimate that it will take at least several months to replace that capability.

Perhaps, though I would suspect that the Russians will try to convince China to give them some help.

During the night of February 25th-February 26th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 24 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 420 strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, both Zircon missiles, 4 Iskander ballistic missiles, all 26 cruise missiles, and 374 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets again included the power grid and natural gas facilities. A large electric grid substation in Odessa suffered “significant damage.” DTEK, the private energy utility company, report that 45% of there substations have been destroyed. Last night’s attack resulted in power outages in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least 25 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 16 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb26 Feb27

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 70.35 72.78

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 64.94 67.41

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 2.81 2.88

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.70 5.87

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.96 77.23

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.23 43.15

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.73 57.84

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 62.19 62.34

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 66.12 66.61

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy is now more readily talking about an end to the war that does not include the 1991 borders, and has now mentioned the idea of “decisions about territory” though in terms of the Ukrainian people deciding. That represents a substantive difference from a year ago, when there seemed to be universal agreement in the Ukrainian government that there could be no peace except with a return of land to the original borders.

Whether the US can use this to bring Putin to the table, or Russia sees this as a weakening of the Ukrainian position and a reason to fight on… remains to be seen.

There has been more chatter about Russian forces preparing for a renewed offensive when the weather warms up, post “mud season” ( the rasputitsa, a Russian idiom meaning roughly “season of bad roads” or besdorizhzhia, a Ukrainian idiom meaning roughly “roadlessness.”) Speculation seems to favor a focus on Kostiantinivka and Slovyansk, while pretty much holding elsewhere. So far, however, there is little definitive evidence - troops being shifted to one area of the line vice another - that can might identify where any Russian summer offensive will focus.

v/r pete