February 18th, 2026

Politics - Talks wrap up in Geneva - limited progress 

- $15 billion needed to purchase weapons

 

Combat Ops - No counter-offensive (no more gains)

Weather

Kharkiv

25 and cloudy, windchill 17. Rain showers tonight, Turing to snow tomorrow afternoon, more snow Friday. Temperature could move briefly above freezing tomorrow morning, but then colder, with highs in the 20s through Monday, lows in the teens, windchill near zero. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

37 and cloudy, gusting to 30, windchill 27. Rain showers possible tonight. Except for some clearing tomorrow afternoon, cloudy for the next 7 days. Daily lows upper 20s to low 30s, daily highs upper 30s to low 40s, except Friday, which may see highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

17 and cloudy, gusting to 20; windchill 5. Snow tonight and tomorrow AM, partly cloudy Friday and Saturday, then cloudy next week. Daily highs and lows will be in the teens for the next 4 days, wind chill in single digits. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff hasn’t made a statement yeet today (that I have seen), but before the meetings today commented:

“President Trump’s success in bringing both sides of this war together has brought about meaningful progress, and we are proud to work under his leadership to stop the killing in this terrible conflict. Both parties agreed to update their respective leaders and continue working towards a deal.” 

Ukraine Presidential Chief of Staff Budanov:

"The next round of negotiations in Geneva has been completed. The conversation was difficult, but important. Together with the team, we are preparing to continue - in the near future. We will stand firm.”

Vladimir Medinsky, of the Russian delegation, commented that the talks were "tough but business-like."

President Zelenskyy on the talks:

"Yesterday there were really difficult meetings, and we can state that Russia is trying to drag out negotiations that could already reach the final stage. I thank the American side for its attention to detail and patience in conversations with the Russian representatives present.”

Yesterday there were different formats of meetings: both bilateral - between Ukraine and America, and multilateral.

In particular, there were negotiations between Ukrainian, American and Russian representatives in two directions, namely - on military and military-political issues. The Ukrainian delegation, together with the American team, also met with European representatives - Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland.

Among other things, the humanitarian direction should be discussed today, namely - steps to exchange prisoners of war and release civilians.

"Today we spoke in detail several times with our team at the negotiations in Geneva. There was a second day of meetings – both in a three-way format and other formats. Ukraine is interested in reaching results.”

“As of today, we cannot say that the result is sufficient. The military discussed some of the issues seriously and meaningfully. Sensitive political issues, questions about possible compromises, and the necessary meeting of leaders have not yet been sufficiently worked out.”

"I also tasked the delegation to discuss the humanitarian track – the need for prisoner of war exchanges and civilian releases. We look for information for each person and always work to bring back our people – bring back Ukrainians to their home. Each exchange matters.”

“I am also grateful to our soldiers on the front, those who are conducting active assaults and replenishing the exchange pool for us, for Ukraine. Our soldiers' courage is what ensures all of this: humanitarian results and our ability to diplomacy, as well as our strong diplomatic position.”

Hungary has stopped shipping diesel oil to Ukraine and will not resume shipments  until Ukraine repairs the Druzhba oil pipeline, per Hungarian ForMin Szijjártó. Slovakia has also announced an end to shipping petroleum products to Ukraine.

PM Fico of Slovakia also commented that Slovakia may stop electricity flow to Ukraine.

President Zelenskyy commented on the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (“PURL”):

"I am grateful to everyone who contributes to PURL. In 2026, we already have financial contributions from the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, Iceland and Latvia for a total of USD 584 million... At the same time, the total need for PURL in 2026 is USD 15 billion. This will help deprive Russia of the tool of air terror, and we call on everyone interested in security to join and expand their contributions to the PURL program.”

France has released the Russian “Ghost Fleet” tanker “Grinch” after the owners paid a “several million euros” fine, per French ForMin Barrot.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continues north of Sumy City, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

There are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains south-east of Sumy City along the border.

Fighting was reported north of Kharkiv as well as east of Kharkiv, along the border north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery of Kupyansk showed Ukrainian troops probing into the city, suggesting that some Russian troops remain dug in, in northern Kupyansk; as you’ll recall, the estimate from Ukrainian HQ was that 22 Russian troops remain in the city.

Of note to my correspondents who spent time in Korea, Ukrainian forces reported striking a Koksan gun, a 170MM self-propelled field piece made by the North Koreans. The gun has a 35 mile range and was designed to be able hit Seoul from the DMZ.

Further south, Russian forces had confirmed gains in the terrain about 12 miles east-south-east of Borova, in the farmland and woods just south of the small town of Novoiehorivka, a tiny town of fewer than 50 people.

BAHKMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues in the Slovyansk - Siversk - Lyman area, but with no confirmed changes in the line. There does appear to be general agreement among the various blog sites and the reports as issued by the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) that Russian forces are squeezing the pocket west of Siversk (its eastern edge about 3 miles west of Siversk, about a 2 mile by 2 mile pocket), and Russian forces appear to have either reached the Nykyforivka or are holding ground just south-east of that town.

West of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have probed into the south-west corner of that city. Most of Chasiv Yar has been held by Russian forces since the end of May of 2025. But, there has been a Ukrainian lodgment in the wooded residential area in south-west (west of the reservoir (Dniprovskyy Pond)) that the Russians have picked at slowly but have not tried to dislodge since last summer.

In south-east Kostiantinivka imagery confirmed Russian forces active in the dacha area, and have pushed a short distance across the T0504 roadway. Russian forces were also active to the south-east, just south of the town of Pleshchiivka, where a Ukrainian element penetrated last week.

Further west, north of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Russian recon probes northwest of Rodynske.

There were no confirmed changes to the lines in the Pokrovsk area but overall reporting suggests Russian control of Pokrovsk is tightening and that the Ukrainian forces contesting terrain just north of the city have control of a perhaps 20 blocks of a residential area on the north edge of the city.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There is a good deal of fighting from the Vovcha River south to Hulyaipole and then west to the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

The two Ukrainian salients - south of Sosnivka and south-east of Vidradne - have shown no change in the last several days and the narrow salient east of Dobrypillia appears to have been closed up and presumably the Ukrainian unit withdrew.

Ukrainian forces spokesman refused to call these counter-offensives, referring to them only as clearing operations. In any case, they appear to have been stopped by Russian forces in the area.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of February 17th-February 18th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 126 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 100 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv and Donetsk oblasts; at least 1 ballistic missile struck in Chernihiv. Targets struck included the power grid.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 killed and 4 injured.

RuAF tacair struck 20 towns.

Russian forces claimed to have shot down 151 Ukrainian drones last night.

During the night of February 16th-February 17th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Iskander ballistic missile, 20 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 x Iskander cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 396 strike drones.  The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, all 25 cruise missiles and 367 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts; targets struck included railways and the power grid. 28,000 homes lost power in Kharkiv oblast, and more than 10,000 in Odessa oblast.

Civilian casualties included 3 killed and 2 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 19 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb17 Feb18

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 68.75 67.71

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 63.84 62.61

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.12 3.01

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.39 5.48

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 76.84 76.23

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.26 43.30

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.21 55.25

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 N/A NA

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 63.30 62.64

Thoughts

As noted above, the “counter-offensive” - or “clearing operation” - has ended. The US Army definition of a clearing operation is the removal of obstacles, not under hostile fire. That wouldn’t seem to fit here. But, in September 2022 Ukrainian forces attacked into Russian lines south-east of Kharkiv, west of the Oskil River. That attack reportedly began as an attack "of opportunity” dreamt up by two Ukrainian brigade commanders and a small Ukrainian special operations element who saw a poorly set up Russian line and some worn out forces behind them and attacked. When they broke through the line and the Russian units started to withdraw - in poor order - the area commander took credit for it. 

Was this the same thing? I don’t know. But the fact that they claim it was a clearing operation leaves me scratching my head.

Russian Presidential Aide, former Security Council Secretary (2008-2024) and former director of the FSB (1999-2008) commented in an interview that Russia must give a "firm rebuff” to any effort by the US and the West to block Russia’s access to the Atlantic, and said the the Russian Navy would break any future blockade, and described the Russian navy as “ the most powerful and flexible geopolitical instrument.”

The Russian Navy has some excellent weapons, and some excellent ship designs, and their submarine force has always operated professionally. But considering their surface ships' contributions to the current war, (or WWII, or WWI for that matter) it has been wholly consistent with the Russian Navy's performance in the Russo-Japanese War.

v/r pete