February 11th, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy comments on key issue: Donbas Free Economic Zone 

- Kyiv: 2 months to repair CHPP

Combat Ops - Russian gains west of Hulyaipole

Economy  - Russians access precision tools

- Russian owned refinery in Germany

Weather

Kharkiv

22 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain Saturday through Monday. Warming tonight, Thursday through Monday temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, then the cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

28 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, daily rain showers possible Friday through Monday. Starting tomorrow, daily low temperatures in the 30s, daily highs in the 40s, through Monday, then cold weather returns. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

25 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 3. Cloudy for the next week, snow or rain showers possible daily through Monday. Warmer temperatures through Sunday, low to mid 30s. Sunday temperatures will start to fall, back into the teens by Monday night. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy commented that the next round of negations are tentatively scheduled for February 17-18 (next Tuesday and Wednesday), in the US, but Russia has yet to agree.

According to Zelenskyy and others, the key issue is the Donbas, and the US proposal for an economic free trade zone as a buffer between Russian occupied terrain and the rest of Ukraine.

According to Zelenskyy, both the Ukrainian and Russian sides are ‘skeptical’ of the idea.

"None of the sides is keen on the idea of the free economic zone – neither the Russians, nor us… We have different views on it. And agreements were as follows – let's come back with the vision of what it may look like for the next meeting.”

"If this is our territory – and this is our territory – then the country to which it belongs should govern it.”

Kyiv’s Mayor Klitschko commented on the problem with suppling heat to the

1,126 houses and apartment buildings in the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts of Kyiv, after he convened a council on energy security with various engineers and housing specialists. 

The two districts are in eastern Kyiv (east of the Dnepr River, and form the south-east quadrant of the city). The Darnytsia CHPP (Combined Heating and Power Plant) has been heavily damaged and must be repaired before heat is restored, which he said will take about 2 months.

  "We discussed both the prospects for restoring damaged critical infrastructure facilities of the city and the possibility of introducing alternative capacities in individual neighborhoods. Since it is impossible to completely replace the centralized heating system of the capital (the largest in Europe and once built for large CHPPs) with heat supply from local heat sources or cogeneration plants. All experts and specialists emphasized this.”

In Odessa drone and missile strikes left 95,000 people were without power and many of them also without heat, in 42 towns and villages across the oblast.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy and imagery confirmed small Russian gains just south of the small border town of Kostyantinivka (a village of 250 people prior to the war, not to be confused with the city of the same name further south).

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv City, as well as east of Kharkiv along the border, but there were no changes to the lines in either area.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and east and south-east of the city but there were no changes to the lines. It is not clear if the last Russian elements have been dug out of Kupyansk yet.

Fighting also continues east and north-east of Borova, but again there were no changes to the lines. 

In the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk area: Russian probes continue in and around Lyman, Russian forces do not control any part of the city but credible reporting confirms that Russian recon elements are operating inside the city.

Further south, reporting suggests Russian forces have pushed west and north-west from Bondarne and are pressing on the south-east edge of the town of Nykyforivka.

Reporting also notes increased Russian drone and glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian logistics related faculties inside Slovyansk.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed small Russian gains immediately south-east of Kpstiantinivka, and Russian probes continue into the city itself, but there is no change to the lines inside the city.

Further west, north of the Pokorvsk pocket, Ukrainian forces pushed back into Novyi Donbas (about 10 miles due north of Pokrovsk). Novyi Donbas is a small village (perhaps 40 - houses) surrounded by groomed farmland; the village was evacuated early last fall as a result of the Russian advance.

Fighting continues in Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian forces still holding a slice of northern Pokrovsk. In addition, small Ukrainian elements remain encircled in both central Pokrovsk and in Myrnohrad.

Fighting continued west and south-west of Pokrovsk, roughly along the line of the Solona River to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha River along most of the Haichur and Vovcha River line.

Ukrainian army sources are hinting that there may indeed be a small counter-offensive taking place in this area, about 10-12 miles north of Hulyaipole, but there is still too little reporting to sort this out.

Imagery confirmed reports from yesterday that suggested Russian forces had pushed westerly down the T0814 roadway, with Russian forces now controlling Zalizychne (about 3 miles west-south-west of Hulyaipole). Zalizychne was a town of about 1,000, but as of 2024 fewer than 50 remained in the town. The town, whose name means “railway,” grew up on this site after a large railway station was built on the site in the 1930s. The rail line, which runs roughly south-east - north-west and connects to the rail liens that parallel the coast, if intact, would support Russian logistics movement to the front.

Further west, imagery also confirmed small Russian gains in and around Novoandrivka, about 4 miles west-south-west of Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 10th-February 11th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missile and 129 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, both Kinzhals and 112 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are reports of at least 7 civilians killed and 26 wounded..

RuAF tacair struck targets in 16 towns.

During the night of February 9th-February 10th Russian forces launched at least 125 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 110 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are reports of at least 4 injured civilians.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 9 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Feb10 Feb11

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 68.78 69.87

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 63.95 64.98

NG       3.97        3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.12 3.16

Wheat     8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.29 5.29

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.40 77.17

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.10 43.03

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 56.94 56.54

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 61.74 60.41

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 64.27 64.27

PCK Schwedt Refinery of Germany has warned that US sanctions are hurting business and could affect fuel supplies in Berlin and the capital region. The company has, in the past, been granted exemptions to various sanctions. But the exemptions are set to finally expire 29 April. Last week the company sent a letter to Germany’s Energy Minister Katherina Reiche asking her to resolve the issues with the United States.

PCK Schwedt is owned by Russia’s Rosneft, Russians 2nd largest oil and gas companies, and is a state-run company.

Unimot, a Polish fuel importer that buys roughly 2 million tons of refined product from Schwedt each year, also noted the risk, saying there is no available replacement.

A Ukrainian open source site reports that Russian modernization of Uralmash Plant #9 (which manufactures and upgrades tanks and self-propelled guns) includes at least 22 precision machine tools from Germany, Italy, Taiwan and the UK. This is consistent with reporting from last year that showed that during 2023 and 2024 Russia acquired some $18 billion in CNC (computerized numerical control) machines and various components from China, Taiwan, South Korea, Italy and Germany. It appears that the machinery and parts are being bought through subsidiaries of the European companies operating in China and south-east Asia.

The Ukrainian source noted that their sources report that Russian firms are confident that they can continue to acquire the machinery and components despite sanctions.

Thoughts

There was a report this morning that the European effort to make a next generation fighter aircraft is unraveling. It seems to be just another example of troubles.  The inability, after 4 years of war, to really crank up production of various weapons, the inability to wean themselves of Russian energy, the inability to make sanctions stick… And, of course, the reality that any sort of security guarantee to Ukraine is irrelevant, except that the US is the guarantor.

Four years ago this war should have been a wake-up call to Europe, and Europe’s 450 million people (3 times as many as Russia) and $20 trillion collective GDP (7 times as large as Russia), but it seems very little has changed. If I were cyclical I might think that Putin isn’t waiting for Europe to quit, rather, Europe already has.

v/r pete