Iran, North Korea and the Fat Lady
March 1st, 2026
In October 1971, about 25 miles or so north-east of Shiraz, a city in south-central Iran, there was a gathering of more than 60 heads of state at huge tents, set up at that spot, more than a mile above sea-level, in the Zagros mountains. The site was Persepolis, the ancient capital of Persia, and the event was the official celebration of the 2,500th anniversary of the founding of the Achaemenid dynasty by Cyrus the Great, in 550 BC. Shah Pahlavi was trying to point out to Iran and the world both the amazing history of Persia (Iran), and just how far the country had moved in modernizing during the 20th century.
And they had. There were several guys in my first tour in the Navy who had been instructors in F-14s in Iran. I recall one telling me that he was in an F-14 with an Iranian student and they passed over a small village north-west of Isfahan and the student (who was in his early 20s) pointed down and noted that he had been born there, and that when he was born, the town had no electricity.
The student had graduated from college, had an engineering degree, and was flying an F-14; and Iran was building nuclear reactors so that they would not always be dependent on oil and natural gas. Progress.
But, seven years and 4 months later the Shah was gone.
Now it appears that the rule of the Ayatollahs is gone.
There are 1,001 questions to ask as we all chew on these events, but one that comes to mind is: why didn’t we do this to North Korea before they finished their bomb?
Indeed, why didn’t we?
As it turns out, it was contemplated. In fact, per a story I heard from a dear and very smart friend, in early 1996 General Gary Luck, the commander of Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea, was faced with this exact prospect and he told President Clinton that the war could be fought, “For a million, a hundred billion, a trillion.”
He then went on to explain that North Korea was an armed camp and if strikes were conducted, it would reignite the Korea war, and it would cost the US 1 million casualties, and $100 billion and would cause at least $1 trillion in damage to the Republic of Korea.
The other part of that equation that Gen. Luck also understood in detail, was that, despite all the rhetoric in the news, the leadership in North Korea had and has one overriding strategic aim that eclipses any and all other issues: survival of the Kim family. Unlike some members of the leadership in the Islamic Republic of Iran, there was and is no fondness for martyrdom. The result is that North Korea is stable. They may be a complete mess, but they are stable. And they view their nuclear arsenal as an insurance policy to prevent just this sort of thing.
As for Iran, assuming that the regime is forced out, and also assuming that there is some sort of popular uprising and a new government, what might happen?
Not to belabor the point, but we need to remember Iran has been around a while.
And their history has been turbulent for much of that 2,500 years, and there were peoples living in what is now Iran for at least 3500 year before Cyrus. After the Achaemenids came Alexander the Great and then the Seleucids, the Parthians (whose empire lasted for nearly 500 years), the Sassanids, the Umayyad Caliphate, the Abbasids, a fracturing and several smaller dynasties that each ruled part of Iran, the Mongol conquest, the rule of Timurlane and the Timurids, the Safavids, Nader Shah and the Afsharids, and the Qahar dynasty (which ruled from 1789 to 1925) and was pushed out in a coup in 1925 and replaced with the Pahlavi dynasty. Reza Shah Pahlavi ruled until 1941; one of the many pieces to WWII, because of the need to both assure access to oil and to open a logistics line from the sea across Iran into the Soviet Union, he was deposed (by the British and Soviets) and replaced with his son, Reza Pahlavi..
In 1951 Iranian’s Prime Minister Mossadegh and the Iranian Parliament moved to nationalize the “Anglo-Persian Oil Company,” (which later became British Petroleum). The British responded by forcing Mossadegh out and giving the Shah more power. The Shah sat on the Peacock Throne from 1941 to 1979 until he was pushed out by the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Ayatollah Khomeini.
Now it appears that the rule of the Ayatollahs is gone.
There are a great many folks who served in uniform, or in the intelligence community, or the state department over the last 5 decades who, with the US and Israel striking targets in Iran, are finally satisfied in some sense that a door is finally closing on the horror that was the Islamic Republic of Iran. And we all tip our hats to the Soldiers, Sailors, Airman, Marines and Guardians who are executing this operation.
But, as the long and at times torturous history of this country shows, there is no reason to believe somehow this is all at an end. It isn’t over yet. Not only has the fat lady not sung, even when we think she has, it’s not really over.
The President has rid us of a major problem, and that is wonderful news. But, more will follow. Even assuming a new government, with a population of 93 million, Iran will be unsettled for quite some time, they have tremendous resources but tremendous problems: among them a worthless currency, a nationwide drought caused by bad policies, and an oil infrastructure that needs investments and modernization.
And there will be unintended consequences: With the flow of crude oil from Iran to China now cut, and with oil prices rising, China will presumably buy more Russian oil. This would not only help Russia’s economy and stiffen their war-time economy, it would also presumably push these two countries closer together. And these strikes will further tighten the supply of smart weapons that might be used in Ukraine or elsewhere.
Of course, it may also occur to China, in light of our excellent execution of this operation, that they probably don’t want to go a few rounds with the US right now, and that would be a good thing.
But, as Clausewitz pointed out, we need to remember that the results in war are never final.
And the unintended consequences are going to take years to reveal themselves.
