November 2nd, 2026  

Politics - False Alarms

- Oleshky relief and evacuation completed, ceasefire ends

- State Department approves sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3s

Combat Ops - Strikes continue, power outages in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk 

- Sheremetyevo temporarily closed

- Little change on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

47 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, rain on Friday. Daily lows in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday, highs in the low 50s. From Thursday through next week, daily lows in the 30s and daily highs in the high 30s to low 40s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and partly cloudy. Cloudy or mostly cloudy all week. On Tuesday and Wednesday daily lows in the 40s, highs in the low 50s; from Thursday on daily lows in the 30s and daily highs in the 40s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

47 and cloudy. Cloudy all next week, rain showers in Friday. Daily lows and highs in the 40s, tomorrow, then colder, daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Russian Emergency Situations Ministry resources and regional operational headquarters channels were hacked, sending Russians false alerts to Russian citizens claiming that nuclear warheads had been launched toward Russia.

The ceasefire in Oleshky ended with the safe evacuation of almost 800 people. First Lady Melania Trump: 

“The mission was a success, delivering critical aid to the region and enabling the evacuation of nearly 800 people. On behalf of America, I commend Russia and Ukraine for their leadership and cooperation surrounding the Oleshky ceasefire.”

She added that she hoped this: “serves as a foundation for lasting peace between both nations.”

Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner Lubinets noted that:

“Throughout this period, both sides honored their commitments. This made it possible to deliver humanitarian aid to Oleshky and help civilians who wished to leave the city safely.”

The final count of how many are evacuating to Ukrainian controlled territory, how many evacuating to Russian controlled territory and how many remain in Oleshky has not yet been released.

Discussions continue between the two sides as to how to ensure humanitarian supplies reach the remaining citizens on a monthly basis.

The State Department has approved the sale of 500 x Patriot PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine at a cost of $2.1 billion. Per the State Department the delivery dates run from 4th quarter 2030 through 4th quarter 2033. Congress must now give final approval to the sale.

Pre President Zelenskyy’s office, Ukraine has been receiving 12 Patriots per month since the beginning of 2026.

Air and Maritime Operations

Ukrainian Forces

During the night of October 31st - November 1st Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil refinery in Kstovo.

Ukrainian forces struck two oil refineries in Ufa on October 31st.

Ukrainian forces struck the Moscow area on the 31st, forcing Sheremetyevo airfield to temporarily close.

Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky industrial facility in Rostov on October 30th. The Kamensky plant produce rocket fuel for battlefield rockets (MLRS).

Russian Forces

During the period October 29th-November 2nd Russian forces launched at least 7 x Iskander class ballistic missiles, 4 Kh-59/69 missiles, multiple Banderol loitering drones, and 877 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAW claimed it defeated 3 cruise missiles, and at least 96 drones during the night of the 29th-30th. Interception numbers for the next three nights have not been released, except to state that no ballistic missiles were intercepted.

Attacks ranged across much of central and eastern Ukraine, and power outages were reported in the Kyiv area and Dnipropetrovsk.

Ground operations 

Ground operations continue to grind along. There are few reports of anything other than continued Russian infiltrations, the bulk of them concentrated east of the fortress belt in the south.

It’s of note that Russian infiltrations continue in the area just south of Lyman to the area of Kramatorsk, despite the assertion that Operation Vivaldi has taken the initiative away from Russian forces.

Further south, Russian infiltrations continue north and west of Kostiantinivka, and west from that city towards the area just south of Dobripillia. Fighting in the gray zone (what I’ve referred to as the checkerboard battleground of Kostiantinivka) is reportedly intense and there appears to be an increase in the number of engagements reported in and around that city. But there is no definitive change in the line of control around the city.

Further south, Russian forces continue to infiltrate Ukrainian controlled towns west of Hulyaipole / north-east of Orikhiv and appear to be putting the press on to expand the front-line / infiltration zone to include Orikhiv.

Per Ukrainian military commentary, Russian elements have pushed north-west from Hulyaipole and entered the small town of Vozdvyzhivka (a farming town of less than 1,000 people, about 8 miles north-west of Hulyaipole).

Ukrainian military reporting also notes that Russain forces now control Charivne, a village of perhaps 35 houses,12 miles south-west of Hulyaipole, roughly equidistant between Orikhiv and Hulyaipole. The slow Russian grind to squeeze Orikhiv continues, despite all the other issues (main theater fighting is to the north, the terrain is flat and open, the foliage is now mainly gone). Ukrainian forces continue to slow the advance but the Russian effort continues.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22   Jul9 Aug7 Sep8 Oct8 Oct30 Nov2

Brent      94.71   77.93 81.75 98.19 105.80 117.20 106.00

WTI     92.10   73.11 76.66 93.28 92.99 103.90 97.30

NG       3.97        3.12   2.64  2.95   3.16 2.84 2.93

Wheat     8.52           6.06   6.35   7.46 6.86 6.03 6.05

Ruble     85         76.31 82.61 86.21 85.20 80.59 81.21

Hryvnia 28.6 44.51 44.73 44.63 44.93 45.36 45.70

Urals 91.66 57.80 79.19 89.44 123.93 102.94 101.12

ESPO 94.52 73.53 78.79 98.44 108.70 122.88 125.64

Sokol 99.31 71.56 77.42 94.09 109.20 121.60 117.03

ESPO Forward, 02 November - 132.56

Thoughts

The ceasefire worked, Oleshky has been reached, some were evacuated, others remain, humanitarian aid was provided. That the civilians were assisted is of note; that the two sides were able to set up a ceasefire and adhere to it is of more note. 

But it has now ended. It certainly isn’t clear that there is, despite some talk, any real momentum to set up another, larger ceasefire. Still, talks are to resume in Abu Dhabi in the next two weeks (though no official date has been given).

There is an opportunity for this to succeed, and a good deal of room for things to fail. That Russian citizens received alert notifications on their cell phones - on a Russian government released app, that warned of an incoming nuclear attack - ought to give everyone a little pause. One might well ask: “What if the Russians believed it?”

And yes, ostensibly the Russian leadership would be careful about what followed. But that translates into “We trust Putin to make the right call.” Think about that.

Lots of reasons to end this war, very few good ones to keep it going at this point. Cyber attacks and nuclear alert hooliganism is not comforting. Russia still has the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world.

I have repeatedly characterized this war as the Somme with cell phones and drones. Really, it is the Somme with cell phones, drones and the Kaiser has nuclear weapons.

v/r pete