December 4th, 2025   Next Summary December 8th

Politics - European leadership warns Zelenskyy of the US

- Turkey warns Ukraine and Russia

Combat Ops - War grinds on, both sides make gains  

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, thick fog continues to be reported.

Kharkiv

37 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through Friday, then three days of partly cloudy weather, then more clouds. Temperatures Friday through next Wednesday colder, daily highs around freezing, daily lows in the upper 20s, wind chill dipping into the low 20s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

40 and mostly cloudy. Some sun possible on Friday and the weekend, then more clouds. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy, gusting to 20. More rain showers tonight, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows and highs in the low 40s through Friday, then colder, temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday through Tuesday. Winds south-easterly, 10kts.

Politics

Der Spiegel Reports that in a conference call among President Macron (France) Chancellor Mer (Germany), President Stubb (Finland), NATO SecGen Rutte, and President Zelenskyy, Merz and Macron warned Zelenskyy that the US may abandon Ukraine.

“There is a chance that the US will betray Ukraine on territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Macron said.

Merz commented that Zelenskyy must be “very careful”… “They are playing games with both you and us.”

Stubb then added: ”We can't leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” and Rutte agreed with Stubb.

General take in Europe on the talks in Moscow on Tuesday is that there was no progress; President Putin commented that all of Russia’s territorial claims must be met.

“It all boils down to this: either we will liberate these territories by force, or Ukrainian troops will leave these territories and stop fighting there.”

Ambassador Witkoff and Mr. Kushner are to meet with Ukrainian negotiations team lead Umerov in Florida this afternoon.

SecState Rubio commented that Putin seems to be the “most difficult” person in the negotiations.

The Turkish Government summoned Ukraine’s Ambassador and Russia’s chargé d'affaires and expressed concern over the attack on shipping in the Black Sea.

ForMin Hakan Fidan called the Ukraine attack on MidVolga 2 as “very scary” and said it threatens Turkey. The strike took place in Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

In a related development, the Romanian Navy blew up an USV 36 miles from the port of Constanta. They identified it as a “Sea Baby,” a Ukrainian unmanned naval drone. Ukraine denied it was their drone.

Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Poland will provide $500 million to Ukraine for the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL - the NATO funded purchasing of US weapons for Ukraine).

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no changes in the front lines.

North of Kharkiv, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces regained ground in Synelnykove, the town just south-west of Vovchansk, just west of the T2104 roadway. 

There was no change in the front line near the border, north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continued along virtually the entire front lines but there were no confirmed changes in the lines. Reporting on the situation in Kupyansk remains contradictory, and the earlier assessment that this has devolved to another street-to-street, house-to-house fight in several sections of the city seems to be the best guess at this point.

In the south Ukrainian reporting notes a good deal of Russian activity, with a claim of as many as 40 Russian recon probes into the city of Lyman per day. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, in the Siversk area, imagery confirmed Russian gains north-east and east of the city, and at the same time imagery confirmed that Russian forces south of Siversk had already pushed westerly and have taken the east side of the town of Sviato-Pokrovske (a small town of 500, about 2 miles south-west of Siversk) and control the T0513 roadway that runs through that town into Siversk. Just north of the town is a bluff, about 200 feet higher than the town; the Ukrainians will obviously try to hold the high ground, and the Russians will try to take it.

The GLOCs into Siversk are all now controlled by Russian forces; logistics support to Siversk now waits on the ground freezing so that the Ukrainians can move over the fields.

North-west of Toretsk there are multiple claims of Russian gains but they have not been confirmed. Imagery did confirm that Ukrainian forces made an incursion into the west side of Ivanopillia.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there were no changes in the front lines.

In the Pokrovsk area and the Pokrovsk pocket, fighting continues, with both sides claiming tactical gains. Ukrainian forces insist that they still have access to the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad and that the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad are not trapped. 

West of Pokrovsk Ukrainian forces made gains north of Udachne, retaking the coal mine about a mile north of the town.

Further to the west, Russian forces were confirmed to have taken control of the small village of Molodetske.

South-west of Novopavlivka, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed back through the small town of Ivanivka and into Zelenyi Hai (which the Russian occupied last week).

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha, Ukrainian sources claim Ukrainian forces holding ground about 2 miles south-east of Velykomykhailivka - which would leave them with Russian forces to their south, east and west. 

In the Hulyaipole area and in terrain to the north of that town, there are multiple reports of Russian attacks, and there are Ukrainian reports that suggest the Russians have massed a very large number of forces on the two major fronts (Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole (claims approaching 200,000 troops around Pokrovsk, and somewhat smaller number near Hulyaipole). But, a count of the brigades or regiments (they have roughly the same combat power in the Russian army) shows about 40 in the Pokrovsk area (about a 50 mile front) and 20 in the Hulyaipole area (about a 30 miles front).

All that said, there were no significant confirmed changes in the line.

Further west, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces gaining control of parts of Stepnohirsk; it is unlikely that they have control over the entire city, but it does appear that there was some ground gained by Russian forces on the west end of the city and in the small apartment complex just south of the city. Ukrainian sources note what has been suspected, that Russian forces are moving through the dense vegetation that grew up in the now drained reservoir, to move north and flank Ukrainian defensive positions along the old coast in Prymorske.

Russian forces were again active near the Antonovskyi bridge, up river from Kherson.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, and 138 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 114 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mikolaiv oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, a temporary blackout was reported in Kramatorsk.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 civilians killed and 7 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 3 towns.

During the last 3 days Ukrainian drones have struck the Nikiforovsky Oil Refinery “Tambovnefteprodukt” in Dmitriyevka, Tambov oblast (about 200 miles south-east of Moscow), a section of the Druzhba pipeline also in Tambov Oblast, the Livny Oil Depot in Oryol Oblast (about 225 miles south of Moscow), and a chemical plant Nevinnomyssk (about 200 miles east of the Kerch strait).

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile of unknown type, and 111 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 83 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson oblasts, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; a ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilian killed and 2 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec3 Dec4

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.93 62.99

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.16 59.31

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.94 4.94

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.39 5.36

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.68 76.82

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.16 42.18

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.18 54.32

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 57.67 56.67

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 59.39 59.84

Thoughts

The negotiations grind on, the fighting grinds on. The weather is getting colder, next week is forecast to include several days during which the temperature may not rise above freeing. The cold will be miserable for the troops, but if it stays below freezing it will mean less foggy days as well as frozen terrain, improving both reconnaissance and mobility off road.

Nevertheless, if the reports of Russian forces massing is roughly accurate, disregarding the count of brigades and regiments (which may not be accurate), the increased combat power wouldgreatly stress the Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and in Hulyaipole. It is possible that both could be taken by the Russians before the end of the year.

v/r pete 

 December 3rd, 2025  

Politics - Witkoff - Putin - talks “constructive” 

- EU to prove 90 Billion Euros over the course of 2026-27

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Kostiantinivka, Pokrovsk

- More gains north of Hulyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog continues to be reported.

Kharkiv

37 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through Friday, then three days of partly cloudy weather, then more clouds. Temperatures in the mid 30s through Thursday, then colder, lows and highs in the low 30s, occasionally dropping into the upper 20s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

41 and cloudy. Cloudy through Thursday, some sun possible on Friday and the weekend, then more clouds. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain showers tonight, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows and highs in the low 40s through Friday, then colder, temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday through Tuesday. Winds south-easterly, 10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with President Putin and Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov for almost 5 hours yesterday. Ushakov summed up the meeting:

“So far, we haven’t found a compromise, but some American solutions can be discussed,”and described the meeting as “very useful and constructive” but “a lot of work lies ahead both in Washington and in Moscow.”

Before the meeting Putin has commented on the EU that:

“They are on the side of war… We can clearly see that all these changes are aimed at only one thing: to block the entire peace process altogether, to make such demands which are absolutely unacceptable to Russia.”

President Trump commented:

“Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled… Not an easy situation. What a mess.”

President Zelenskyy’s former press secretary Yulia Mendel (press secretary from 2019 to 2021), in an interview with Radio Liberty, called Zelenskyy’s former chief of Staff Andrii Yermak:

"A very dangerous person… every day I thank God that I am alive. I understand that no one will believe this now, but I pray to God every day and thank God that I am alive. Because Andrii Borysovych is a very dangerous person. He is a very dangerous person. And those who know him will understand this.”

Mendel accused Yermak of stopping the work of various police agencies, and manipulating the power of his office for his own benefit. She also suggested that he wanted to become president after Zelenskyy.

European Commission President von der Leyen announced that the EU will provide 90 billion euros ($104 billion) over rate course fo 2026-2027) to Ukraine to support the government.

"Today, we are proposing to cover two-thirds of Ukraine's financing needs for the next two years, so this is €90 billion. The remainder would be for international partners to cover."

"First, we would use the money for Ukraine budget support, and here we would build on the success of existing instruments. You know them both. That is, on one hand, either macro-financial assistance and/or the Ukraine Facility.”

And for military assistance:

"Here, the main goal is to further boost Ukraine's defence industrial capabilities and integrate their capacities into our defence industrial base.”

"The funds would be used predominantly to produce and purchase from Ukraine and the European Union and so-called EEA[European Economic Area] after countries. But if we have urgent needs that cannot be met by Ukraine or the European Union, then we allow with this money the purchase of these urgent needs from outside.”

The EU has reached an agreement to end all purchase of Russian oil by the end of 2027. Imagine, less than 6 years…

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city; imagery confirmed Russian forces made marginal gains east of Kindrativka (about 12 miles due north of the Sumy city), and more fighting was reported in that area and along the perimeter of most of the Russian lodgment.

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces continue to attack but there are no confirmed gains in the area. That said, Gen. Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff (Russia’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs equivalent), claimed that Russian forces now controlled all of Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces denied the claim, and Gerasimov’s claim does appear to be more disinformation.

Fighting continues just north of the Oskil River along the border but, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in Kupyansk, as do contradictory claims. Russian sources continue to claim they control the city, Ukrainian sources continue to claim they have essentially pushed the Russians out. Recent imagery confirms both are spinning tales. Imagery shows Ukrainian forces have gained ground in the south-east sector of the city, and shows Russian forces in the north-central section of the city, and Russian probes and Ukrainian counter-attacks continue over much of the city.

Further south, fighting continues north and north-east of Borova but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Nor were there any confirmed changes around Lyman or along the Nitrius River; recon probes continue into Lyman.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along the east edge of Siversk, north-east of the city, and north-west of the city, but there were no confirmed changes in the frontline.

West of Chasiv Yar Russian reporting now denies that Russian forces seized Klynove (north of Kostiantinivka) but there may have been a recon probe into that town. Fighting does continue on the east edge of Kostiantinivka, and imagery confirmed several recon probes into the city itself, one about a half mile north-east of the rail yard and another within a block of the south end of the rail yard. 

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) situation map was apparently updated yesterday and showed that Russian forces controlled up to the southern shore of the Kleban Byk Reservoir some time before December 1st, and that the towns of Katerynivka, Shcherbynivka and Kleban Byk were in Russian controlled territory, meaning that the Ukrainian elements that had been holding in those towns either withdrew or were overrun.

Fighting continues in and just north of Pokrovsk, as well as in Myrnohrad. Russian forces continue to press, Ukrainian forces continue to hold.

In Pokrovsk Russian forces are appear to be advancing slowly - street-to-street, house-to-house, trying to dig out Ukrainian elements. In Myrnohrad, reporting is more contradictory, but, it appears that Ukrainian forces are slowly withdrawing from the southern end of the pocket, and have concentrated in the center of the city. At the same time other Ukrainian elements are using drones, ATVs, etc. to continue to supply elements inside the pocket. Fighting also continues north of the pocket, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Imagery showed a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian position in northern Pokrovsk, confirming Russian control of that part of the city. 

South and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha river, Russian forces continue to attack but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian forces moving just north of the town of Dobropillia (8 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole), and advancing southward along the T0401 roadway (paralleling the Haichur River). Reporting from earlier in the week suggested that Russian forces were pressing westward along a fairly broad front and some reporting suggests that Russian forces control most virtually all of the terrain north of Hulyaipole, east of the Haichur River.

Imagery also showed Russian elements being attacked inside Hulyaipole, confirming that Russian recon elements are operating inside the city.

Fighting continues immediately south and south-east of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. West of Orikhiv, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains into Prymorske and Stepnohirsk

Fighting was again reported in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy bridge, up river from Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile of unknown type, and 111 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 83 drones

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts; a ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilian killed and 2 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 12 towns.

Russian tanker MidVolga 2 arrived in Sinop, Turkey after being struck by surface drones on Monday. Ukraine has denied it struck the ship.

MidVolga 2 was carrying several thousand tons of sunflower oil.

Russian forces launched more than 3,500 glide bombs in November (116 per day), below the average so far this year of 131 per day (44,000 from January 1st through November). The average for 2024 was 109 per day (40,000 weapons).

During the night of December 1st-December 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 39 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts; the struck targets being predominantly elements of the power grid. At least 36,000 homes in Odessa oblast were left temporarily without power.

There are no casualties reports yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 2 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec2 Dec3

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.23 62.93

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.44 59.16

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.91 4.94

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.33 5.39

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.18 77.68

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.32 42.16

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.22 54.18

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.88 57.67

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.05 59.39

Thoughts

Russian forces pushing into Kostiantinivka, as well as in the fight for Hulyaipole and the surrounding area, are moving faster than has been the norm over the past 18 months. I have no proof, but it seems that the Ukrainian line is continuing to thin.

The recent probes into Kostiantinivka over the last last several days (recognizing that Russian forces had not taken Klynove, but there still appears to have been a probe into that town), hint at a front line with many seams, suggesting a manpower shortage.

I’m speculating, but could the more rapid than expected Russian gains in and around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, around Kostiantinivka, and around Hulyaipole, be a function of deception? (All warfare is based on deception per Sun Tsu…) Russian spokesmen kept saying “Kupyansk is ours,” even to the point that Putin claimed it had fallen to Russian forces on 21 November. President Zelenskyy then claimed there were only 200 Russian soldiers in Kupyansk and then shifted at least 1 brigade to the city, perhaps more. Could that have simply been Putin and his generals conducting a head fake to weaken the lines elsewhere, as they pushed on Pokrovsk, Myrhnohrad, Kostiantinivka, and Hulyaipole?

Of course, that leads to wondering how much of a reserve element the Ukrainian army has remaining; the sense is that there is essentially no strategic reserve for the army.

v/r pete