January 30th, 2026
Politics - Power Grid off the target list for now
- Ground Lines of Communication struck
Combat ops - No let up in fighting, bit few changes
- Drones keep gaining capabilities
Weather
The very cold weather returns over the weekend; with wind chills of minus 20 possible in some areas, or lower in Kyiv.
Cloud cover over much of the country for the next several days will continue to degrade commercial satellite imaging, limiting assessment of changes to the front lines.
Kharkiv
26, rain and ice, gusting to 20. Ice - snow mix continues through Saturday, then clearing and colder. Temperatures already dropping. Highs tomorrow in the teens, highs for the week (Sunday through Thursday) will be single digits; lows will be well below zero, windchills as low as minus 20. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Melitopol
41 and cloudy. Rain tonight, tomorrow freezing rain or snow. Clearing Sunday and temperatures falling. By Sunday highs will be in the teens, and stay there through Wednesday. Lows will be near zero, windchill as low as minus 10. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
10 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy tomorrow morning, then 4 days of sun; very cold. Tomorrow’s high will be in the low teens, the highs for the following 3 days will be single digits or lower. Lows at night will be well below zero, windchills could pass minus 20. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.
Politics
President Trump called President Putin and made a direct appeal that he not strike Kyiv or any other cities for the next week of very cold weather and Trump said he agreed to do that.
"Because of the extreme cold…I personally asked President Putin not to fire on Kiev and the cities and towns for a week, he agreed to do that, we’re very happy. And I have to tell you, it was very nice. A lot of people said 'Don't waste the call.' You're not going to get that. And he did it, and we're very happy..., because on top of everything else, that's not what they [Ukrainians] need, [that is] missiles coming into their towns and cities. So I just thought, I should say, I thought it was a very, very good thing, and Ukraine almost didn't believe it, but they were very happy about it, because they are struggling badly.”
President Zelenskyy commented:
“I thank the U.S. side for its efforts to stop the attacks on the energy sector at this time, and we hope that U.S. will be able to ensure this. There is a statement by the President of the United States today. The situation now at night and these days, the real situation at our energy facilities, in our cities will show this.”
There were no strikes on the Ukrainian power grid during het night of January 29th-30th.
He later noted:
”We are now observing a shift by the Russian army toward strikes on logistics."
"Furthermore, a ballistic missile was used against the Kharkiv region – warehouses belonging to a civilian production facility were damaged, and this is an American company."
President Zelenskyy commented on the suspension of attacks on the energy grid, saying that Ukraine was ready to adhere to a reciprocal policy, assuming Russia actually stops attacking the power grid.
Kyiv Mayor Klitschko reported that 454 residential buildings are still heating in the city.
The United Nations has called for a truce in the lead upend during the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. The games will be held February 6th-22nd and March 6th-15th respectively.
UN Secretary-General Guterres:
"I believe that the Olympics are a great moment to symbolize peace, respect for international law and international cooperation.”
Constantinos Filis, director of the International Olympic Truce Centre commented:
"For ethical reasons, we want to send a message that the Olympic Truce, the Sacred Olympic Truce, must be respected.”
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting continues north of Sumy city and east of Sumy city along the border, with one change: north-west of Sumy city about 50 miles, Russian forces appear to have pushed across the border and seized a farm named Bila Bereza, a farm with a single farm house and perhaps 300 acres of land.
As with other such incidents, this represents a two-pronged effort: if there is no Ukrainian response, it represents a propaganda success showing “Russian mastery” of the border, and if the Ukrainian army responds, it means the movement of troops away from higher value terrain to lesser value terrain.
North, and east, of Kharkiv City there were no changes in the front lines; Ukrainian forces report Russian drone strikes 15KM or more (10 miles) behind the front lines, as Russian forces continue to strike at the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOC).
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues in and to the east and south-east of Kupyansk, but there were no changes in the front lines. Ukrainian commanders note increased Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian GLOCs into the area. A Ukrainian army officer noted that roughly 50 Russian troops remain in Kupyansk - a number unchanged for several weeks. Whether that means that Russian forces have been infiltrating into the city to reinforce or that earlier force estimates were too low (which seems doubtful), isn’t clear.
Fighting continues in the Lyman - Siversk - Slovyansk area and Russian recon elements continue to probe into Lyman.
BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK AREA
Fighting continues in the eastern end of Kostiantinivka, as well as east of the city and south of the city, but there were no changes along the front lines. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports had troops in contact just east of the center of the city, about a half mile north-east of the train station.
Ukrainian reporting continues to emphasize Russian troops continuing to infiltrate into central Myrnohrad, and imagery confirmed Russian operations in north-western Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed change to the front line.
That said, there were 11 separate engagements noted inside the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area, with two clearly a case of Ukrainian troops isolated and holding inside central Pokrovsk.
There were no confirmed changes in the front line to the south and south-west of Pokrovsk, north of the Vovcha River.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
There are no confirmed changes in the front line south of the Vovcha River and along the Haichur River line, and no change around Hulyaipole, but there is a good deal of UGS reporting suggesting Ukrainian elements continue to hold positions in a number of the small towns along the river that are “claimed” by the Russian forces, as well as Ukrainian recon elements raiding Russian positions in these villages.
Fighting continues across the south, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.
Imagery confirmed marginal Russian gains north-west of Stepnohirsk, and Russain forces appear to control the terrain west of the city, south of the city and the city center. Just north of the city center there are 8 - 6 to 8 floor apartment buildings which the Ukrainian army has become adept at turning into very hard fighting positions and I would assume that the fight will now begin to shift to these buildings.
Although not confirmed with imagery, UGS reports confirm troops in contact east and east-north-east of Stepnohirsk, in the area of Lukianivske and Pavlivka (4 and 6 miles respectively from Stepnohirsk), suggesting Russian forces have moved into the farmland east of Stepnohirsk.
Fighting was again reported near the Antonovskiy bridge, up river form Kherson City, and Russian artillery struck Ukrainian positions across the river, near the river’s mouth.
Air and Maritime Operations
During the night of January 29th-January 30th, Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 111 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 80 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, the targets being industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.
At least one civilian has been killed and 5 wounded in the attacks.
RuAF tacair struck targets in 7 towns.
The Ukrainian MinDef is reporting that Russian FPV drones - using Starlink as the command and control system, is conducting FPV drone strikes 50 kilometers (27NM) behind the front lines, in attacks on Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOC). The MinDef is working with SpaceX to try to prevent this use.
Imagery from the 28th shows a Russian drone - type unknown, speculation is that it was a Molniya drone - striking a moving Ukrainian vehicle north-west of Slovyansk, 97KM (53NM) behind the front lines.
Russian forces claimed to have shot down 111 Ukrainian drones on January 29th.
During the night of January 28th-January 29th, Russian forces launched at least 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 84 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Odessa, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.
At least one civilian has been killed and 6 wounded in the attacks.
RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.
An RuAF Su-34 was reportedly shot down over the Black Sea early Thursday, but this has to date only been reported by the UAF.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan29 Jun30
Brent 94.71 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 71.02 70.48
WTI 92.10 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 66.17 65.36
NG 3.97 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.79 3.87
Wheat 8.52 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.42 5.44
Ruble 85 84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 75.38 75.89
Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 42.86 42.78
Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.28 59.00
ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.04 61.18
Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 63.33 63.70
Thoughts
President Trump demonstrated the value of talking to both sides and apparently has achieved some sort of temporary cessation of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities… We shall see if it holds. If it does, this would, perhaps, represent a first real step towards a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the drone fight continues. What is clear is that the two sides are very close in the drone capabilities, both are beginning to use AI both to enhance autonomous operation, to assist in target discrimination, and to defeat enemy jamming and deception. Ukrainian drone tech is benefiting from US and European tech support, Russia from Chinese tech support.
The ability of the drones to strike moving targets deeper and deeper into enemy territory is of note.
I’ll put out a separate piece on casualties, to address the latest analysis and numbers.
v/r pete
