April 17th, 2026

Politics - Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin

- US weapon deliveries to Europe delays

- Hungary oil supplies via Drubzha

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Some troop movement 

- Drone strikes

Economy - Oil prices dropping

Weather

Kharkiv

66 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow. Cloudy to mostly cloudy through Monday morning, then some sunlight, clouds move back in around midday. Rain showers Friday night and Saturday morning, possibly again on Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

65 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through next week. Rain showers possible Sunday and Tuesday. Daily lows mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

53 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight, mostly cloudy through the weekend, partly to mostly cloudy next week. Daily lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, daily highs in the low to mid 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ukrainian ForMin Sybiha says President Zelenskyy is ready to meet President Putin in Turkey, with President Erdogan and President Trump taking part.

The US is pushing off transfer of some weapons to European nations in the wake of the war in Iran, as the US works to restock magazines. Reuters suggests that this will affect European aid to Ukraine, and is apparently worrisome to Baltic and Scandinavian countries as well.

There are renewed calls for Europe to expand its current arms production capacity.

Hungary’s new Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, commented earlier today that Russian oil flows to Hungary, through the Druzhba pipeline may resume as early as next week. 

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLAST

Fighting continues along the front line north of Sumy City but there were no changes reported.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv city, and along the border east of Kharkiv, north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes.

ALONG THE OSKIL RIVER

Fighting continues in the Kupyansk area and east of Borova but there were no changes to the lines.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery showed Ukrainian gains in the open terrain east of Lyman. Of note, Russian forces appear to retain control of the woods east of Lyman, part of the Serebrianske forest, a site of 4 years of very ugly fighting that the Russians took in the last 6 months.

There was no change to the front line in Kostiantinivka, but imagery confirmed more Russian recon probes into the city and into neighboring Ivanopillia as the gray zone of the eastern end of the city slowly expands westward.

Fighting continues north, northwest and west of Pokrovsk, but there were no changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There were no confirmed changes to the lines across southern Ukraine, but imagery did confirm Russian probes into Ukrainian positions in the Ternove area, as well as in the west end of Zalinychne - west of Hulyaipole. Zalnychne (the name means “railway”) was built as a transportation hub for local farms and had a pre-war population of just over 1,000. 

Fighting was reported near Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, north of Kamyanske.

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovsky bridge, up river from Kherson, but there were as usual no details.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of April 16th-April 17th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 172 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 147 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.

During the night of April 15th-April 16th Russian forces launched at least 19 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missile, 20 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 659 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 7 ballistic missiles, 19 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 Iskander cruise missile, and 636 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 17 killed and 100 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr16 Apr17

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 96.75 95.61 / 88.48

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 92.53 90.68 / 82.71

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.61 2.67

Wheat      8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 6.01 6.05

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 76.33 75.94

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.78 43.89

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 116.40 114.65

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 100.81 100.81

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 101.47 102.53

Oil prices continue to drop in the wake of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.  The prices for West Texas Intermediate and Brent are shown above for around 0800 EDT and again around noon.

Thoughts

There are renewed calls for Europe to expand its current arms production capacity. This is, sadly, laughable: 4 years into the war and the same calls for expansion of  European the arms industry; without of course, explaining how the expensive social programs AND an expanded arms industry will both be funded.

Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) believes that Russian forces will move 20,000 “fresh troops” into the south-eastern sector of the front, adding to the GUR current estimate of 680,000 Russian troops committed to the war.

The estimate for more than a year has placed the Russian force commitment between 600,000 and 710,000. An accurate count of regiments and brigades in the Russian force isn’t possible, but a reasonable estimate (digging through various web sites) gives a total of 60-70 brigades and 100 - 110 regiments. The distinction between the two is one of additional assets (supply, medical, engineering, air defense, etc.) attached to each, and how it is going to be commanded and operated. But the fighting force is still 3 or 4 battalions, each with - roughly 400 to 600 troops in each. 

At this point in the war, the actual number of “trigger pullers” in each battalion in the Russian force is probably closer to 400 than 600. This yields an estimate (using mid point numbers) of actual Russian combat troops in the war in the neighborhood of 275,000 to 310,000. So, a plus-up of 20,000 fresh troops, assuming they are all basic infantry (and this is an infantry - artillery (drone) war), would be an overall 7% plus up.

The size of the Ukrainian force is surprisingly similar. There are roughly 800,000 - 900,000 troops in the Ukrainian army, and a total of 141 to 148 brigades or regiments (depending on how you count): 41 mechanized infantry, 3 tank, 7 motorized infantry, 7 specialized (mountain, assault, Jaeger), 12 artillery, 4 aviation, 19 air defense (4 army, 15 UAF), 9 Marine, 11 Air Assault, 5 SOF regiments, 30 territorial defense. As for actual numbers on the front lines, last year a number leaked out that the Ukrainian army was down to between 200,000 and 240,000 infantry, and, to get more trigger pullers on the front lines, personnel were (for the second time in the war) stripped out of rear echelon units and moved forward.

This thus reduces to a slightly larger Russian force (300,000 trigger pullers) assaulting perhaps 220,000 Ukrainians.

v/r pete 

 April 16th, 2026

Politics - Magyar win in Hungary, supports EU funds for Ukraine

- NATO and EU Aid, Russian Response

- Military Expert Council

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground, air strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

64 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy to mostly cloudy through Sunday morning, then some sunlight. Rain showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

65 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through next week. rain showers possible Tuesday. Daily lows mid 40s, daily highs in the mid 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

62 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight, mostly cloudy through the weekend, mostly cloudy next week. Daily lows in the lower 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Tisza party received 53.5% of the vote and 138 of 199 seats in Hungary’s election on 12 April. Peter Magyar is now the Prime Minister, replacing Victor Orban, who had been PM since 2010. Orban’s Fidesz party received 37.8% of the vote and 55 seats in Parliament (with 97.35% of precincts having reported). Magyar has promised to improve relations with eh EU, and has said he will work to release the EU funds for Ukraine, funds that have been blocked by Hungary’s veto.

As for the Easter Truce on April 12th, (Orthodox Easter), both sides accused the other of wide-ranging violations: 

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Russian forces had committed at least "2,299 ceasefire violations,” to include: "28 enemy assault, 479 shellings, 747 strikes by attack drones, 1,045 strikes by FPV drones.” 

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian forces had committed: “1,971 ceasefire violations,” to include: "258 shillings, 1,329 FPV drone strikes, and 375 strikes by various types of dropped munitions munitions.”

As for suggestions that the truce be extended, Kremlin Spokesman Peskov commented:

“Sustainable peace can come when we secure our interests and achieve the goals we set from the very start. This can be done literally today. But Zelenskyy must accept these well-known solutions… Until Zelenskyy musters the courage to assume this responsibility, the special military operation will continue after the truce expires.”

NATO members will provide $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026, separate from the 90 billion euro ($104 billion) EU loan.

NATO SecGen Rutte noted:

"We have to focus funding on priorities - air defense, drones and long-range munitions. These are the priorities.”

UK MinDef Healey announced UK’s largest aid package to date, to include more than 120,000 drones per year, and includes strike drones, reconnaissance drones, logistics drones, and anti-ship weapons. Deliveries are scheduled to begin this month. Funding will exceed 3 billion pounds.

"In the fifth year of a brutal war, the UK continues to increase its support and this year will provide Ukraine with the largest number of drones. ... With the world's attention focused on the Middle East, Putin wants us to be distracted, but Ukrainians continue to fight with great courage. Nothing will distract us from continuing to stand by their side for as long as it takes to secure peace.”

"Today's announcement follows a new leading defense partnership concluded last month that will allow the UK and Ukraine to work together to strengthen global defense capabilities against the proliferation of low-cost, high-tech military equipment, including drones.”

This was the response from the Russian Ministry of Defense: 

The leadership of several European countries has decided to increase the production and supply of UAVs to Ukraine for strikes on Russian territory. A significant increase in UAV production for Ukraine is planned through increased funding for Ukrainian and joint ventures located in European countries that produce attack drones and their components. We view this decision as a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military-political situation throughout Europe and the creeping transformation of these countries into Ukraine's strategic rear area.

Ukraine has set up a “Military Expert Council ARES” (Allied Reform and Expert Support), as an advisory body to Gen. Syrskyi. The council is headed by Gen. Richard Shirreff (British Army, retired, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (DSACEUR) 2011-2014).

The council is supposed to exchange best practices between NATO and Ukrainian forces. In a prepared statement the council noted:

"This is an important step for the systemic strengthening of the Armed Forces: The Council will help implement institutional changes in the Armed Forces management system, support the transformation of the army and increase its effectiveness.” 

Other members of the council include:

Gen. David Petraeus (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, 2011–2012)

Adm. Manfred Nielson (Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, NATO, Germany, 2016–2019)

LtGen. Pavel Macko (Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic, 2013–2018)

VADM Sir Martin Connell (Second Sea Lord and Deputy Chief of the Naval Staff, United Kingdom, 2022–2025)

LtGen Andrew Leslie (Commander of the Canadian Army, 2006–2010)

MGEN Patrick Carpentier (Commander of Joint Task Force North, Canadian Armed Forces, 2017–2020)

Comm. Hans Helseth (Representative of the Royal Norwegian Navy to NATO structures)

Slovak ForMin Blanár stated that his country will block a new EU sanctions package against Russia, but will not oppose the €90 billion ($104 billion) loan.

The European Commission expects the first tranche of the to be sent to Ukraine in the 2nd quarter of 2026. The loan will be provided over the course of 2 years, 45 billion euros per year,16.7 billion for the state budget and 28.3 billion for support to the military, each year. 

Ground Operations

Please see my Thoughts (below) for an overall assessment of the Ground Situation.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Claims of Russian gains east of Vovchansk, but these are unconfirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian probes continue but no changes.

SLOVYANSK - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Ukrainian forces continue to try to push north and east along the T0513 roadway in western Zakitne, about 15 miles north-east of Slovyansk, and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian elements have reached the center of that town.

Imagery showed small gains by both sides in areas just to the south-east and south of Kostiantinivka. This continues a see-saw battle, resembling a patchwork of terrain held by elements of both sides, with occasional swapping of control.

An estimated 2,500 civilians are said to remain inside Kostiantinivka. Like Pokrovsk before it, the military utility of the city has been negated, except as a hard point in the defensive perimeter.

There have been no changes in the lines in the Pokrovsk area or to the west and south-west for more than a week.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting contains along virtually the entire line but, again there have been no significant changes for more than a week.

Fighting was reported just upriver from Kherson city, near the Antonovskyi bridge, but no details were provided.

Air and Maritime Operations

Per Ukrainian MinDef Fedorov, the UAF has, since last November, achieved an 80% interception rate against cruise missiles (nearly Russian cruise missiles were launched against Ukraine in that period) and a 90% interception rate against strike drones (approximately 27,000 launched).

Fedorov did not provide an interception rate of the 462 ballistic missiles launched against Ukraine.

During the night of April 15th-April 16th Russian forces launched at least 19 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 5 x Iskander cruise missile, 20 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 659 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 8 ballistic missiles, 19 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 Iskander cruise missile, and 636 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy and Vinnytsia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 13 killed and 59 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

On April 15th Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in Bashkortostan (about 800 miles east of Moscow); the facility produces ammonia, nitrogen-based fertilizers and jet fuel.

During the night of April 14th-April 15th Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 324 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 309 drones.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 5 killed and 14 wounded.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Jan8 Feb9 Mar9 Apr8 Apr10 Apr16

Brent      94.71   61.26 68.57 106.40 91.78 95.96 96.75

WTI     92.10   57.10 64.04 103.60 93.53 97.95 92.53

NG       3.97      3.41 3.20 3.37 2.73 2.67 2.61

Wheat      8.52  5.22 5.29 6.25 5.79 5.71 6.01

Ruble     85          80.35 77.40 78.20 78.54 77.15 76.33

Hryvnia 28.6 43.10 43.03 43.93 43.45 43.45 43.78

Urals 91.66 50.40 56.37 90.97 124.85 121.78 116.40

ESPO 94.52 52.28 59.77 84.99 103.27 103.92 100.81

Sokol 99.31 55.57 62.85 101.55 96.88 101.19 101.47

Urals oil hit 125.14 on the April 7th - an all time high (though not when adjusted for inflation).

Thoughts

The overall situation on the ground has shown very little change since the last few days of March, mainly consisting of small elements infiltrating across the lines (both directions) and assorted claims by each side as to ground regained. The site DeepState (an independent site inside Ukraine, made up of members and former members of the Ukrainian military) noted that Russian forces had small gains near a number of towns but that Russian forces failed to capture a single town in more than a week. 

But two things stand out. 

First, the Ukrainian counter offensive launched in the south (south-east of Verbove) in early February, appears be slowly giving ground to the Russian grind. The UGS at first didn’t call it a counter-offensive, than claimed it as it made some ground, but now it has been several weeks and there are small - very small - areas along the edges where Russian infiltration is taking place regularly and there does not appear to be any Ukrainian infiltration in the other direction; in short, the Russians appear to have regained the initiative in that area.

Second, whether the Russians have begun a spring offensive remains - at least to me - an open question. There simply does not seem to be any surge anywhere, just more of the same. Add on top of that the several days of at least lower levels of activity around Easter and it all seems very slow. Ukraine’s Gen Syrskyi says that Russian activity has increased along the entire front; it appears to me to be a slow ramp-up, and there is no one spot that stands out.

Interesting numbers from MinDef Fedorov. I counted up the numbers I have for Russian ballistic missiles launched against Ukraine since January of this year; my total is 258, though I may have missed a few in the last week. Of that 258, the Ukrainian Air Force claimed intercepts on 87 missiles, an intercept rate 34%. Of note, it does not appear that it is a function of numbers and of “overloading” the defenses. Ballistic missiles were launched against Ukraine on 44 separate days, but of that number, on 28 days the number launched was just 1 to 3 missiles. Of those 28 days, on only 4 days were any ballistic missiles successfully intercepted. 

On those days when the Russians launched large numbers of ballistic missiles, the numbers are (engaged versus number launched): 0/9, 8/14, 2/18, 14/18, 15/36, 1/11, 1/11, 15/26, 8/22, 8/13, for totals of 72/178 or a 40% interception rate.

I think the Russians are engaged in some “sniping,” keeping very close track of where the Patriots are and striking targets when they aren't covered.

v/r pete