February 9th, 2026

Politics - 1,400 buildings in Kyiv alone without heat

- Cities in 12 Oblasts without either power or heat

Combat Ops - Large strikes on Power grid

- Hulyaipole falls to Russian forces

Weather

Kharkiv

14 and clear, windchill 4. Sunny tomorrow, then clouds return, rain or snow Friday through Monday. Tomorrow and Wednesday cold, lows in the teens, highs in the 20s, then warmer, Thursday through Monday temperatures will remain in the 30s, then colder next Tuesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

18 and clear, windchill 6. Sunny tomorrow and Wednesday, then mostly cloudy through Monday, rain Saturday through Monday. Tomorrow and Wednesday lows in the teens, highs in the mid 20s, then warmer, Thursday through Monday lows in the 30s, highs in the low 40s, then back below freezing next Tuesday. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

3 and partly cloudy, wind chill minus 9. Some sun tomorrow afternoon, but other than that, cloudy for the next week, with rain or snow next weekend. Tomorrow very cold, but Thursday through Sunday temperatures will hover around freezing, then cold again next week. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

As of this morning some 1,400 apartment buildings in Kyiv were without heat, and other cities and towns were also with significant losses in power and heating. Six towns in Kherson Oblast were also without power as were sections of Lviv and several other oblasts.

President Zelenskyy posted:

"I held a coordination call on the situation in the energy sector and on efforts to eliminate the consequences of Russian strikes. The most challenging conditions remain in the capital: more than 1,400 apartment buildings in Kyiv are still without heating, and it is crucial that people in every one of these buildings receive all the support they need.”

"The situation in the Kherson region was discussed separately – 6 settlements in the region are facing extremely difficult energy conditions due to constant drone strikes, creating extraordinarily challenging circumstances for restoration work. Regional authorities must ensure additional efforts in this area, both protective and recovery-related.”

Zelenskyy also commented on power and heat problems in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomir oblasts.

"I held a detailed discussion with [Ukraine's] minister of energy on the situation with nuclear generation. For the Russian army, our nuclear energy facilities – including the infrastructure and grids linked to nuclear power plants – remain, in effect, constant targets."

ForMin Sybiha commented on the peace negotiations in Dubai and noted that the Ukrainian and Russian leaders need to meet and work out a settlement and that only President Trump has the power to make that happen and and the war.

He noted that only a few items remain to be worked out, but they are the most sensitive and the leaders of the two countries need to deal with this directly. 

He also noted that US negotiators have said that the security guarantees will be presented to Congress for ratification, and he also noted that France and the UK have agreed to send troops to Ukraine as a deterrent.

Hungary’s ForMin Szijjártó posted on his support for Ukrainians who flee Ukraine and seek sanctuary in Hungary after an Hungarian was arrested in Ukraine for helping five Ukrainian men get across the border and into Hungary:

"This case also clearly shows that the war needs to end as soon as possible, and the forced conscription needs to be stopped immediately… [Ukrainians] desperately trying to escape from Ukraine to avoid conscription, and with it, being sent to the front and likely death.”

There are an estimated 25,000 Ukrainians in Hungary but there is no breakdown by age or sex.

On Friday there was an assassination attempt against LTGEN Vladimir Alexeyev, the deputy of Russia’s GRU. Alexeyev was hit three times, twice in his stomach, once in one leg, and reportedly lost a good deal of blood but is now stable and recovering.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has two men in custardy (one returned from Dubai on Sunday): a Ukrainian-born Russian citizen Lyubomir Korba, who was extradited from Dubai, and his suspected accomplice Viktor Vasin.

The FSB reports that the two men have confessed to the attempted murder, and that they were in the employ of Ukraine’s Special Services (SBU). The FSB claims that Korba admitted that he was recruited last August by the SBU, was trained in Kyiv, and was paid in crypto-currency. He was to receive $30,000 if successful.

Speculation on my part but Korba may also confess to the Kennedy assassination.

Alexeyev’s boss, Admiral Kostyukov, is leading the Russian negotiation team.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City as well as north of Kharkiv City but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines over the last 4 days. 

Fighting was also reported east of Kharkiv, along there border north of the Oskil river, but there were no confirmed charges to the lines.

Russian forces claim they have pushed across the border north-west of Sumy city and taken another small patch of Ukraine, Sydorivka, a slice of farm land about 55 miles north-north-west of Sumy, with no full-time inhabitants. There is no confirmation of this seizure.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, and east and north-east of Borova; Russian forces remaining inside Kupyansk reportedly consists of the remnants of several platoons, perhaps 50 troops total. Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces advanced a short distance north-east along the P-79 roadway about 5-6 miles north-east of Borova.

SLOVYANSK - LYMAN - SIVERSK 

Fighting continues across much of the front line in this area, with imagery confirming Ukrainian forces pushed back into Nykyforivka, a small town about 12 miles south-east of Slovyansk. Russian forces had pushed up the road from Bondarne last week; Ukrainian forces have now retaken parts of the town. The town was a small village (about 800 people) before the war, and mainly consists of a string of houses along a single street.

Fighting around Lyman is reportedly heavy, but Russian probes have so far failed to penetrate deeply into the city.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Russian probes continue into Kostiantinivka. Over the weekend Russian forces retook Novomarkove and Pryvillia (north of Chasiv Yar), and parts of Ivanopillia (south-east of Kostiantinivka) and Stepanivka (south of Kostiantinivka), but made no further gains into eastern Kostiantinivka itself.

Further east, north of Pokrovsk, Russian forces made small gains in Rodynske, and fighting was reported north and northwest of Pokrovsk, and imagery confirmed small Russian gains just north-west of Pokrovsk, just east of Hryshyne.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains about 8 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole, west of the Haichur River, with Ukrainian forces pushing back into Russian lines. But Russian forces still control the river and remain west (in control of) of the Ukrainian defensive positions.

Of note, imagery confirmed that Russian forces have full control of Hulyaipole. Russian forces will now press westward along the line of the T0814 roadway.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 8th-February 9th Russian forces launched at least 11 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 149 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 116 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporozhzia oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses; this included a strike on a NaftoGaz Group natural gas facility in Poltava.

There are reports of at least 4 injured civilians.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

During the nights of February 5th-February 8th Russian forces launched the following missiles and drones into Ukrainian airspace:

7th-8th at least 1 x ballistic missile and 101 striek drones. The UAF defeated 69 drones. Targets were struck in Chernihiv, Dniproptetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Poltava Oblasts. 

At least 1 civilian was killed.

6th-7th at least 2 x Zircon hypersonic missiles, 21 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 16 x Kalibr cruise missiles 408 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it brought down 24 missiles and 382 drones 

Targets were struck in Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Vinnytsia, and Violin oblasts. The strike focused on thermal power plants (TPPs) and substations, and left 600,000 people in Lviv oblast without power, and no heat or water in Ivano-Frankivsk.

At least 1 civilian was killed.

5th-6th at least 2 x Khinzhal ballistic missiles, 5 x Kh59/69 cruise missiles, 328 x attack drones. The UAF claimed that it shot down all the missiles and 297 drones. Targets included energy infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia oblasts.

A Russian interceptor drone was shot down on the 7th that had an R-60 air-to-air missile (NATO nomenclature AA-8 Aphid) mounted on the top of the drone, facing aft. The missile is an infra-red guided missile with a maximum range of 5 miles - and a minimum range of only 300 meters (1,000 feet).

During the night of February 4th-February 5th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 183 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 156 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are no casualty reports yet.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

Per President Zelenskyy, during the first week of February Russian forces launched 116 x missiles, more than 1,200 glide bombs, and more than 2,000 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. Targets were predominantly the power grid and transportation systems.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb5 Feb9

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 67.76 68.57

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 63.48 64.04

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.45 3.20

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.25 5.29

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.57 77.40

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.14 43.03

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 55.69 56.37

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 61.05 59.77

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 63.28 62.85

Thoughts

The seizure of Hulyaipole is of note; Russian forces were pressing on Ukrainian lines east of Hulyaipole last May, and were conducting drones, artillery and glide-bomb strikes into city all summer, but really didn’t begin the investment of the city until the end of November, which makes this a rather rapid siege for the Russian army. By way of comparison, the city of Velyka Novosilke fell about a year ago also after several months “investment,” while the city of Vuhledar, further to the east, had been holding off attacks from the beginning of the war until early October 2024 (and actually, since 2014), and was the site of brutal attacks for 2 years and the mauling of two Russian regiments for no gain in 2023.

There are a number of reasons for this, though it should be noted that there was a very well prepared Ukrainian defensive line that ran along the east edge of the city that the Russians crossed with relative ease.

Ukrainian commentary has noted that the Russians used the poor weather to advance, but as one George Patton once noted, “the enemy has the same weather.”

The Russian use of strike drones with longer ranges to affect Ukrainian movement of troops and supplies forward (and exhausted and wounded troops to the rear), and the use of many more glide bombs to more quickly reduce hard points in the Ukrainian defensive positions, are certainly part of the explanation. But also of note are the comments made more than a year ago after Vuhledar fell, that there was a shortage of trained infantry. The Russian grind, and the resultant need for fresh troops, has made it very difficult for Ukraine to properly train new infantry, which simply compounds the troubles.

As for the Russians, there is still no real capability to thrust rapidly forward, that is not the Russian way of war. They will continue to press slowly west over the Haichur River, and they will move to press on Orikhiv from the east, pushing down the T0814 roadway. Orikhiv is about 23 miles further west; given the way the Russians move, they could be pushing on Orikhiv in several months.

v/r pete 

 

Bring Back the Board

 February 8th 2026

In 1881 newly inaugurated James Garfield - a lover of new technology - appointed Southern Republican William Hunt as Secretary of the Navy. Hunt’s term was short (March of 1881 to April 1882) but he is arguably the single most influential Secretary the Navy has had, followed by his successor Secretary William Chandler. The modern Navy, with which the US entered the 20th century, was a direct result of their efforts. 

Perhaps the most important single event was Hunt’s creation of the Naval Advisory Board, a small board of senior Naval offices who were tasked to make recommendations for modernizing the Navy, bringing new technology into the fleet. 

It’s worth reminding ourselves that it was the “hide bound” Navy that introduced fully steel ships turrets (USS Monitor), but following the end of the Civil War procurement of new ships essentially fell to zero and only a handful of ships were brought into the fleet between 1865 and 1880. Hunt was going to fix that and wanted the Board to produce hard recommendations for new ships.

This they did. The initial recommendation, in November 1881, was for 20 steel (vice iron) armored ship and 70 other ships. Congress debated for 18 months and then authorized 4 ships - the ABCD ships (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago and Dolphin), but the intellectual log jam had been broken and the Navy moved into the era of steel ships.

There followed a series of Boards, and a remarkable effort to keep up with technology. Ships became larger, faster, much more heavily armored, and much more heavily armed. Over the following 25 years the US began construction of scores of classes of ships, only to cancel them as they were overcome with technology. Few classes had more than 2 ships, and it was understood things were changing fast. The first heavily gunned ships, USS Texas and USS Maine - Maine was actually laid down first, both examples of what were later (and now) known as a pre-Dreadnought Battleships, were ordered in 1886 for construction to begin in 1888 (Maine was begun in 1888, Texas was begun in 1889). Over the course of the next 16 years the Navy went through 20 different battleship designs. 20. In 16 years.

So? I’ll return to that in a moment.

At the same time, there is some concern over the number of laborers that US shipyards need to add over the course of the next ten years. Secretary Phelan has commented - and been pilloried by some - that we - the US - will need to add 250,000 people to the business of building ships in the next 10 years.

There are currently about 105,000 shipyard workers in the US, and as they cycle at retirement, there is an annual replacement rate of roughly 2,500 - 3,000 per year. Total workforce for shipyards and the direct support labor is about 400,000, which means 10,000 retire every year.

Secretary Phelan has an amazing opportunity. But it requires just a small adjustment in thought: the US doesn’t need to add 25,000 workers per year (250,000 workers in ten years), with an end workforce of 550,000, we need to add tens of million of production-hours in labor. Right now we get about 800 million man-hours of labor out of this industry. We need to boost that to 1.1 - 1,.2 billion (or more). But why do it only with more shipwrights, etc? We are at the dawn of a revolution in robotics, AI, extremes of automation. We can change shipbuilding as much as Henry Ford changed the car industry.

So, there are several opportunities here for Secretary Phelan.

1) Slash the OPNAV staffs, particularly NavAir and NavSea, and replace them with a Navy Board. Yes, the Board was stood down in 1951 because it was said to have grown hidebound (maybe it had, maybe it hadn’t). But the system that grew up in its place has now become terribly hidebound. Much worse than the board was. We need a new approach, one that is much more streamlined - 8 or 9 senior officers making recommendations to CNO and SecNav. Make sure there are  several Marines - 2 SWOs, 2 Aviators, 2 submariners, 2 Marines, and the President of the board - perhaps a retired 4 star who agrees to not work for any defense contractors ever.

Will the board become hidebound in 40 to 50 years? Probably. We can get rid of it then. Right now, we need a changed approach and the Board has worked.

2) Recognize what we understood in the 1880s: get a design and execute. Build 2, and then adjust. Make things better in a stair-step fashion, recognize that good enough right now is better than wonderful in 15 years. Push hard, demand short cycle times. I saw a statement the other day that there is no possibility of cutting steel on the Defiant class until the early 2030s, that it will take 4 or 5 years to work out the design. Don’t accept that. If there is anything at all to AI, those planning timelines should be substantially shortened. Demand answers in months, not years.

3) We need more workers, but what we really need are more “production hours.” Again, AI, machine learning, robotics are the answer. We have a chance right now to change the nature of shipbuilding, not simply in the US but worldwide. Why not set a goal of - via AI and robotics - tripling the actual productivity of shipyard workers in the next 5 years? And offer them the pay-boost to make that worthwhile.

The first nuclear powered ship - USS Nautilus - at the time truly beyond cutting edge technology, was authorized in 1951 and commissioned in 1954. If we can do that  70 years ago with technology as radical as nuclear propulsion, surely we can do that today, assisted by AI and all the rest.

What we must not do is settle for the NavSea, NavAir, Pentagon and contractor bureaucracy response. We need a sense of urgency but also a sense that there is an amazing opportunity here to change the way the Navy does business.

 February 5th, 2026 Next Summary Monday, February 9th

Politics - Talks conclude in Dubai 

- Discussed ceasefire implementation procedures 

- START expires

Combat Ops - Russians take Myrnohrad 

- One CHPP in Kyiv will require 2 months to repair

Weather

Kharkiv

15 and mostly cloudy, windchill 4. Cloudy through Monday, freezing rain or snow on weekend. Friday temperatures will begin to climb, low 30s Saturday and Sunday, then the cold returns. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Melitopol

20 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy through Monday morning, showers on Saturday. Friday afternoon through Sunday night temperatures will be in the 30s, may reach 40 Saturday afternoon; Monday clearing and colder.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

17 with snow showers, gusting to 30. Snow showers to continue through Sunday, then clearing. Temperatures in the teens to mid 20s through Sunday, then colder. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Talks concluded in the UAE.

A comment from USEUCOM is interesting:

"Following the progress towards President Trump's goal of peace in Ukraine made by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff over the past week, the U.S. and Russia agreed today in Abu Dhabi to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue."

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented:

"The UAE affirms that it will continue its efforts to support all endeavors aimed at reaching a peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine and mitigating its humanitarian consequences."

SecState Rubio noted that there would be no detailed public release until there was “a breakthrough.”

Ambassador Witkoff, commented that “…significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.”

The two sides did agree to an exchange of POWs, 157 from each side.

Ukraine’s MinDef Umierov called the talks “meaningful and productive”

Umierov then posted “results” of the talks which he said included discussions on how a ceasefire might be implemented and monitored.

The two sides agreed to continue trilateral talks.

UN Secretary-General Guterres commented on the expiration of the START treaty: 

"For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the Russian Federation and the United States of America – the two States that possess the overwhelming majority of the global stockpile of nuclear weapons.” 

He called on the US and Russia to negotiate a new treaty, to: "reset and create an arms control regime adapted to a rapidly changing context.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north, north-east and south-east of Sumy city but there were no changes in the lines.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv and north-east along the border, but there were no changes to the lines.

KUPYANSK AND THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces were active in and around Kupyansk, and conducted recon probes into the city, but there were no changes to the lines. At least one Russian unit (less than a platoon in size) remains dug in, in northern Kupyansk.

Fighting was also reported further south, and Russian forces claimed gains northeast of Borova, but this has not been confirmed.

Along the Donets River, just east of Lyman, Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting for control of the town of Zakitne, with Russian forces, who it now appears had been pushed out of the town center, pushing west through the town center and Ukrainian troops pushing north into an oxbow of the river - which is the north end of the town. Additional Russian elements have pushed south-west from Platonivka (just east of Zakitne) and appear to be attempting to circle the town to the south and cut off the Ukrainian force in the town. The town had a population of roughly 500 before the war.

Further south, Ukrainian forces have pushed eastward down Travneva street, through Riznykivka and reached the west end Sviato-Pokrovske and are holding their position. Just to the south-west of this position, Russian forces have pushed west and taken Minkivka and Orinoco Vasylivka (just south of Minkivka, and at the same time reached Nykyforivka and are pushing south on Pryvillia.

In short, the Russian forces are trying to seize the small villages in the farmland in the general area between Slovyansk and Siversk as a prelude to attacking Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces are trying to hold the small villages and thereby prevent the Russians from setting up another “siege” of a city.

Russian drone strikes continue and are reportedly increasing in number and depth, striking the ground lines of communication (GLCO) that support the Ukrainian units in these cities and towns.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces made gains and pushed into central Ivanopillia (about 2 miles south-east of the east edge of Kostiantinivka, about 5 miles north-west of Toretsk), pushing down Lenin street to the middle of the town. At the same time, Russian probes have again reached into central Kostianitnivka. Russian sources claim to have taken control of Stepanivka, about 5 miles south-west of Kostiantinivka.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk pocket, there were no confirmed changes.

In the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad pocket imagery appears to confirm that Russian forces now control all of Myrnohrad and Svitle, and may have for several days. Russian forces are moving into Myrnohrad and Russian forces have reportedly set up a command post inside the city, suggesting that the last Ukrainian troops have been cleared.

Fighting continues inside and just north and north-west of Pokrovsk, particularly in the east end of Hryshyne and in Rodynske.

Fighting continued to the south-west but there were no changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Multiple changes to the lines in the fighting around Hulyaipole. North-west of the Hukyaipole Russian forces seized several towns along the Haichur river (Zelene, Olenokostyantynivka and Pryluky) during the last few days, poor weather (both clouds and fog) obscuring the events. And Russian forces continue to probe westward from Hulyaipole and appear to have reached Staroukrainka (about 6 miles west of Hulyaipole).

At the same time, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces are holding a position about a mile south of Hulyaipole at a small bend in the road where several tree-lines and some broken terrain merge. How large a unit isn’t known.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of February 4th-February 5th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 183 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 156 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses.

There are no casualty reports yet.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

1,100 apartment buildings in Kyiv still have no heat.

The Darnytsia combined heat and power (CHP) plant (Kyiv), damaged into the strike on February 3rd, will take 2 months to repair. Mayor Klitschko:

“This CHP plant supplied heat to some of the apartment buildings in the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts – more than 1,100 multi-story residential buildings. The water was drained from the heating systems in these buildings on the morning of 3 February to prevent it from freezing."

During the night of February 3rd-February 4th Russian forces launched at least 105 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 88 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia  oblasts, the targets being, again, power grid, industrial and logistics related facilities and warehouses. A drone also struck a market in Druzhkivka, killing at least 7 and wounding 15.

At least 9 civilians killed and 36 civilians wounded in the attacks.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 7 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb4 Feb5

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 67.60 67.76

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 63.37 63.48

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.43 3.45

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.23 5.25

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.14 76.57

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.11 43.14

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 53.84 55.69

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 58.98 61.05

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 63.08 63.28

The US has reached an agreement with Ukraine to provide LNG to Ukraine via a pipeline that runs from Revithoussa, Greece (about 15 miles west of Athens), through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova, terminating at Ukraine’s Naftogaz system. The agreement calls for transfer of up to 100 million cubic meters of gas per month, which if, my math is correct works out to about 72,000 tons per month. An LNG tanker arrived in Poland earlier this week and has begun offloading.

Thoughts

President Zelenskyy commented yesterday: “In Ukraine, officially the number of soldiers killed on the battlefield – either professionals or those conscripted – is 55,000.”

in September 2024 the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine commented that there were 55,000 missing Ukrainians, and when pressed noted that they were really virtually all soldiers and it was probable that they were all dead. At the same time a member of the Verkhovna Rada commented that there were more than 51,000 KIAs. Both men withdrew their comments within hours and said that those weren’t the correct numbers. 

The actual number of deaths remains unknown (and is considered a state secret in Ukraine), but it was presumably well more than 100,000 more than 18 months ago. But, I would suspect that this is how the numbers will be “squared” when all is said and done: there will be an official KIA number, and a larger (probably much larger) "Missing” number. Individual families will know, but the compiling of the death notifications will be obstructed by government red tape and secrecy and it will take years to work out the right casualty numbers.

Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR) has commented on Russian formation of drone units - Unmanned Systems Forces. And while it isn’t crystal clear, it appears that the Russians currently have 1 division, 7 regiments, 25 battalions, and 3 special detachments, in addition to the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies (which operates the most advanced Russian drones).

GUR adds that they - the Russians - are in process of standing up 2 more divisions, 1 brigade, 4 regiments, 96 battalions and 82 companies.

This force currently includes 87,000 troops.

The numbers don’t seem to add up yet, there are far too many battalions (121) for 1 brigade and 11 regiments, and exactly how they integrate with the rest of the military is evolving as they learn lessons in the war; presumably many of these are set to operate independently, and to operate special capability drones. 

But, it does serve to point out that the Russians have seen the role drones can play on the battlefield and are evolving their forces and force structure to, at least in part, reflect those lessons learned.

v/r pete