January 7th, 2026 Russian Orthodox Christmas

Politics - Coalition of the Willing statements, elements of the plan

- War Department boosts Patriot production 

Combat Ops - Few gains, but Russian gains in Hulyaipole

Weather

Clouds, rain, snow continue. Next week will be much colder, wind chills in single digits or below freezing. Clouds and snow-rain will continue to make reconnaissance more difficult, as well as limiting independent verification of changes in the battlefield.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy, gusting to 20, showers possible tonight, more showers tomorrow. Cloudy all week, snow on Sunday. Daily highs in the mid to upper 30s, daily lows near freezing through Thursday, then much colder, temperatures in the low 20s or lower. Winds south-easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

43 and rain, gusting to 20. Rain continues through Sunday, with a possible brake on Friday. Daily highs in the low 40s, daily lows in the 30s through Friday morning, then temperatures dropping into the 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

25 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Snow - ice mix tonight and tomorrow, more snow showers Friday and into Saturday morning. Daily highs will be in the upper 20s through Thursday, then much colder, highs in single digits from Saturday through most of next week. Lows after Saturday will be near zero, wind chill below zero. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

The “Coalition of the Willing” met in Paris yesterday and have nearly reached an agreement on a security guarantee as part of a peace plan. President Zelenskyy, who flew to Cyprus after the meeting in Paris, commented that the details - to include size and functions of various foreign elements are nearly complete but he did not release any details.

"Yesterday, there was a detailed briefing by our generals from France, the UK, the United States of America and from Ukraine… In principle, all the details have been agreed upon between the countries. In principle, I believe we already have answers to the questions you are asking. There are answers there on support, armaments and presence – there are answers to all these questions. But… for now, I am not ready to speak about this publicly.”

Of note, there is no discussion of a “nuclear umbrella” provided by France or the UK.

Macron commented that “several thousand” French troops would be deployed.

Chancellor Merz noted that: 

Germany will accept responsibility for the security of Ukraine and for the continent as a whole.

Croatian Prime Minister Plenkovic: “Croatia will not send troops … will continue to provide other forms of assistance, particularly in [Ukraine’s] reconstruction and economic revitalisation.”

Czech Prime Minister Babis:”… would not send troops and would no longer provide funding for ammunition for Ukraine, although it will continue in the role of coordinator for the ammunition initiative.”

Belgian Prime Minister De Wever said Belgium would provide naval and air support, and the army would be involve in training the Ukrainian army.

De Wever said that this was possible now because “the US Backstop was now on paper.”

The proposed agreement, as signed by UK’s Starmer and France’s Macron, includes:

1. Participation in a proposed US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism. There will be a continuous, reliable ceasefire monitoring system, including contributions from members of the Coalition of the Willing. The Coalition of the Willing will also be represented in the Special Commission that will be established to address any breaches, attribute responsibility, and determine remedies.
2. Support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Coalition agreed to continue critical long term military assistance and armament to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to ensure their sustained capability, as they will remain the first line of defence and deterrence. This will include but not be limited to : long term defence packages ; support for financing the purchase of weapons; continued cooperation with Ukraine on its national budget to finance the armed forces; access to defence depots which can deliver rapid additional support in the case of a future armed attack; provision of practical and technical support to Ukraine in building defensive fortifications.
3. A Multinational Force for Ukraine made up from contributions from willing nations within the framework of the Coalition, to support the rebuilding of Ukraine's armed forces and support deterrence. Coordinated military planning has been conducted to prepare for reassurance measures in the air, at sea and on land and for the regeneration of the armed forces of Ukraine. We confirmed that these reassurance measures should be strictly implemented at Ukraine's request once a credible cessation of hostilities has taken place. These elements will be European-led, with the involvement also of non-European members of the Coalition, and the proposed support of the US
4. Binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia in order to restore peace. We agreed to finalise binding commitments setting out our approach to support Ukraine and to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack by Russia. These commitments may include the use of military capabilities, intelligence and logistical support, diplomatic initiatives, adoption of additional sanctions.
5. Commitment to deepen long-term defence cooperation with Ukraine. We agreed we would continue to develop and deepen mutually beneficial defence cooperation with Ukraine, inter alia: training, defence industrial joint production, including with the use of European relevant instruments, and intelligence cooperation.

The War Department signed an agreement with Lockheed yesterday to increase Patriot missile production to 2,000 missiles per year, the majority being Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles, the most advanced of the missile variants.

President Putin attended a Russian Orthodox Christmas service at St George Victory Bearer Church. After the Mass he commented:

“Russia’s warriors have always, as if at the Lord’s behest, carried out this mission of defending the fatherland and its people, saving the motherland and its people … At ‌all times in Russia, this is how people have regarded their warriors, as those who, as if at the Lord’s behest, carry out this holy mission.”

He met with soldiers and their families after the mass.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Numerous claims of advances but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines either north of Sumy City or north, or east of Kharkiv City.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Imagery confirmed that Novoplatonivka, north-north-east of Borova, remains in Ukrainian hands.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed small Russian gains north-west of Siversk, with fighting taking place on the north bank of the Donets River; Russian forces appearing to be pushing slowly out of the woods just north of the River, heading south, trying to reach across the T0513 roadway, which is just south of the engagement. The town of Dibrova, just west about 3 miles, remains in Ukrainian control.

From the Kostiantinivka area to Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk pocket and then to the north bank of the Vovcha river there is a great deal of fighting but no real changes in the front lines.

What is of note is that Ukrainian reporting is showing more Russian probes into Kostiantinivka and Ukrainian reporting also notes that Russian recon elements are moving into the city and then remaining in place, resupplied by larger drones, rather than withdrawing when they run out of supplies and ammo.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) acknowledged Russian forces have penetrated into southern Hulyaipole.

Overall, the UGS has also acknowledged Russian occupation of the terrain immediately south-east of Hulyaipole. Based on maps with UGS reported troops in contact, Russian forces appear to control more than half of Hulyaipole, and the entire east bank of the Haichur River as far north as the village of Dobropillia.

This afternoon the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Administration has ordered the evacuation of all children and their parents of ten villages in the Vasylivka area (about 30 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole).

An Ukrainian Southern Command spokesman is again noting Russian elements moving north along what was the bottom of the Kakhovka Reservoir, using the now mostly dry terrain to flank Ukrainian positions along the coast, north of Kamyanske, as part of the effort to take Stepnohirsk and push up the coast road. The flanking movement  would allow not only taking Stepnohirsk but provide better interdiction of ground lines of communication leading into Orikhiv and to the Hulyaipole area. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonovsky Bridge, just up river from Kherson, but there were no further details. There are also reports of Russian UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles) operating in Kherson, but again, there are no details.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 6th-January 7th, Russian forces launched more than 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 95 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 81 drones. drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Odessa reported being stuck by at least two ballistic missiles. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. 22,000 houses were without power in Dnipropetrovsk.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 killed and 25 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns. Of note, a FAB-500 (500kg - 1,100 lb) glide bomb struck a natural gas facility in Kramatorsk.

During the night of January 5th-January 6th Ukrainian forces struck a missile storage facility near Neya, about 250 miles north-east of Moscow. Imagery showed a smoke plume in the general area. During the same time period Ukrainian forces reported they struck Russian troop concentrations between Belgorod and the Ukrainian border; there is no independent verification yet.

Russian forces claimed they shot down 129 Ukrainian drones last night.

During the night of January 5th-January 6th, Russian forces launched at least 5 x ballistic missiles and 61 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 53 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 killed and 2 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 5 towns.

During the night of January 4th-January 5th Ukrainian forces struck the Energiya chemical plant in Yelets, about 200 miles south of Moscow; the plant produces, among other things, batteries used in various weapon systems.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan6 Jan7

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 62.12 60.32

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 58.62 56.46

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.37 3.51

Wheat     8.52         5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.12 5.18

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.81 80.55

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 42.55 42.89

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 51.38 51.47

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 55.76 53.01

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 57.32 55.69

From the beginning of the war, through the end of 2025, Russia has earned 996 billion euros ($1.12 trillion) in sale - export - of oil and gas. The EU accounted for 22% of that oil and gas ($246 billion) and China 46% ($325 billion)

Thoughts

Several thoughts occur as I look at the reports on Kramatorsk and Kostiantinivka: the Russian probes are going deeper and are staying longer, and Russian glide bomb usage on these cities appears to be slowly ramping up. The point is that these cities are two of the cities in the so-called “fortress belt” that stretches from Kostiantinivka through Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk to Slovyansk. And what we are seeing is that the Russian slow grind - a “rock-soup” approach - is already bing applied to grind these cities down.

The case of Pokrovsk is instructive: the city was a key logistics and personnel marshaling hub for a large slice of the front. Russia still does not control the city but the city stopped bing of operational value to the Ukrainian army in July and has been for the most part pounded into rubble.

As for the possible peace agreement security guarantee, it remains to be seen what, if anything, Putin might accept. 

v/r - pete