January 14th, 2026

Politics - Nation-wide emergency due to damage to power grid

- New Defense Minister, tasks listed.

Combat Ops  - Cold weather slows both armies

- Some Russian gains, some Ukrainian gains 

Weather

The very cold weather continues.

Kharkiv

13 and mostly cloudy. Mostly to partly cloudy for the next week. Very cold, daily high temperatures will remain in the low teens, daily lows in single digits, often near zero, wind chill near or below zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

20 and with light snow. Snow showers possible for the next several days, cloudy through the weekend. Cold, daily highs around 20, daily lows in the low teens, wind chills at or below zero.   Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

5 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next week, very cold. In only 3 of the next 5 days will temperatures rise into double digits - early afternoon 11 or 12 degrees. At no point in the next 10 days is the temperature forecast to reach 20. Daily lows will be at or below zero. Wind chills could be as low as minus 10. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

President Zelenskyy announced a nation-wide state of emergency as a result of damage to Ukraine’s power grid.

"In general, an emergency situation will be introduced in the energy sector of Ukraine. The First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Energy of Ukraine, has been appointed to lead the work on supporting people and communities in such conditions, as well as solving practical issues.”

He noted that repair work continues and they are working on bringing more electricity in from Europe.

As part of the emergency there will be nationwide power outages all through the day on the 15th of January, and citizens were encouraged to check with local officials so that they knew when the power outages would affect their neighborhood.

As you will recall, in many Ukrainian apartment complexes, the power, water and heating services are all linked.

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (legislature) approved the appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as the new Minister of Defense. Until yesterday Fedorov was the Minister of Digital Transformation,

One of his first tasks, per President Zelenskyy, is to provide proposals to solve recruitment across the country. Zelenskyy commented:

"A meeting with Ukraine's Minister of Defence Mykhailo Fedorov. I am grateful to the members of parliament for supporting Mykhailo. We immediately identified the first priorities for the Ministry of Defence.”

Points identified after the meeting included:

• Air Defense - “There are concrete decisions that must be implemented as quickly as possible.”
• Technology - Improve the use of technology to halt the Russian army.
• Recruitment - "Decisions have already been made to ensure a more equitable distribution of personnel among combat brigades. However, much broader changes are needed in the mobilisation process that will guarantee more opportunities both for Ukraine's Defence and Security Forces and for economic processes in our state.”  "But we need much more ambitious changes in the mobilization process, which guarantee more opportunities for both the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine and the economic processes in our country.”

- Funding - “In particular, an expedited audit of defence sector funding will take place. Mykhailo will present ways to address the existing shortages.”

This would also include increased financial support for soldiers.

- Drones - "We are also working separately on drone supplies – the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine must introduce a basic level of drone provision for combat brigades and ensure the procurement of specialized drones capable of striking the enemy at greater depth.”

Zelenskyy also called on Fedorov to eliminate funding gaps in the defense budget and provide better support to the front line. 

National Anti-corruption Bureau of Ukraine charged MP Yulia Tymoshenko with corruption, in an attempt to influence vote in Verkhovna Rada; she has been implicated in a vote-buying scheme within the legislature.

Tymoshenko was Prime Minster in 2005 and again from 2007 through 2010. is the leader of the Batkivshchyna (“fatherland”)  Батьківщина) political party, and was key figure in the 2004 Orange Revolution.

The Verkhovna Rada voted against naming formerDefense Minister Shmyhal as Minister of Energy.

Ground Operations

Overall, there are multiple comments about reduced combat operations due to poor visibility and extreme cold. At the same time, Ukrainian sources note further increases in Russian glide bomb usage, but insist that they aren’t taking casualties (which seems doubtful). One brigade near Kupyansk noted it was being struck regularly with 20 to 40 glide bombs daily.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there has been no change in the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv, along the border, as well as along the border north of the Oskil River, but there was no change in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Overall, Ukrainian forces continue to clear Kupyansk and the small towns just 

east and south-east of Kupyansk, and Russian recon teams continue to probe back into these same areas, with no noted changes in the front lines.

The Ukrainian forces spokesman suggested that the Russian forces left in Kupyansk totals “several dozen."

Fighting continues around the small pocket of Ukrainian troops in the Russian line about 7 miles north-east of Borova (near the town of Bohuslavka). Imagery showed Russian forces gaining ground at the eastern end of the pocket.

On both sides of the Donets River there are reports suggesting a good deal of Russian activity as Russian forces continue to push roughly south-west from the Dibrova area and west from the Siversk area, in the general direction of Slovyansk, but there were no confirmed gains in the front lines. Imagery did show that Russian recon probes from the Dobrysheve area (due north of Slovyansk about 10 - 11 miles) have crossed the Donets River and are operating south of the River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

West of Bakhmut (north-west of Chasiv Yar) imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces have pushed back into Maiske and now appear to control that town. This town has changed hands several times in the last several months.

North-west of Toretsk imagery confirmed Russian probes continue in eastern Kostyantinivka, with forces noted operating within 1 block of the rail yard, and 2 blocks south of the T0504 roadway as it passes through the center of Kostiantinivka.

While this is labeled as the south side of the city, this really places Russian recon probes in the city center.

Further west, in the area north of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, fighting continues, with claims of Russian gains north of Pokrovsk, but there is no confirmed change in the front lines.

Fighting continues to the south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes in the lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues in and around Hulyaipole and in the small towns and villages along the Haichur River - principally just west of the Haichur River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Further west, imagery confirmed Ukrainian positions on and immediately south of Molodizhna Street, the northern most east-west street in Stepnohirsk. What this also confirms is that the bulk of Stepnohirsk is now controlled by Russian forces. Imagery also confirmed Russian forces have pushed north from Stepove and are now due east of Stepnohirsk about 6 miles, potentially creating a small pocket of Ukrainian forces.

Air and Maritime Operations 

Some quick numbers on Russian strikes and Russian drones:

During 2024 Russian forces launched 3 strikes with more than 200 drones and missiles; the largest strike consisted of 287 drones and missiles.

During 2025 Russian forces launched 42 strikes with more than 300 drones and missiles; the largest strike had more than 823 drones and missiles.

Since the invasion Russian forces have launched more than 13,300 missiles and 142,300 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace.

Since February 2022 Russian forces have killed 15,000 civilians and caused more than 40,000 civilian wounded.

The new Molniya 2 FPV (First Person View) drones is equipped with Starlink, which has apparently resulted in a significant improvement in its effectiveness in an electronic warfare environment. Russian claims to have made 900,000 of these drones in the first 8 months of 2025, at a cost of roughly $1 billion  ($1,100 apiece) though Ukrainian sources say the number is closer to 400,000 ($2,500 apiece); the drone has an effective range (link range for the video) of 230 kilometers or 125NM.

During the night of January 13th-January 14th, Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 113 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 89 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy  oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and damage from earlier strikes is still being repaired across the country. As of this morning more than 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without power.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 killed and 10 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

During the night of January 12th-January 13th, Russian forces launched at least 18 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 7 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 293 strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 2 ballistic missiles, 5 cruise missiles and 240 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. There were multiple reports of losses of power, to include 46,000 houses in Odessa.

Russian drones also struck 2 cargo ships (1 Panamanian flagged, 1 San Marino flagged, both in the vicinity of Chornomorsk (just south of Odessa)). Initial reports suggest minimal damage to both tankers.

Probable Ukrainian drones struck 2 tankers offshore Novorossysk (“Matilda” and "Delta Harmony”) causing minimal damage and no injuries.

Ukrainian forces claimed Ukrainian missiles and drones struck several Russian targets on the 12th and 13th, to include Atlanta Aero facility in Taganrog (north-east corner of the Sea of Azov), manufacturer of Molniya drones) and the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in Oryol (about 200 miles south-west of Moscow). There is no confirmation of the first, there is a report of a fire at the second.

During the night of January 11th-January 12th, Russian forces launched at least 156 x drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 135 drones. drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Odessa oblasts. Kryvyi Rih reported being stuck by at least two ballistic missiles. Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and damage from earlier strikes is still being repaired across the country. As of this morning more than 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without power.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 killed and 10 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan9 Jan12

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 63.04 65.92

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 58.75 61.49

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.21 3.11

Wheat     8.52         5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.24 5.11

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 78.33 78.50

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.26 43.38

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 53.62 55.85

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 55.49 57.45

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 58.04 59.94

Thoughts

Fighting continues despite the extreme cold, and despite the slow nature of the was, Russian forces appear to be grinding down pockets of Ukrainian pockets in the Pokrovsk area as well as Hulyaipole. Russian grinding - and gains - are also of note at the west end of the line, along the Dnepr River. 

Ukrainian forces have made some gains as well, but my sense of them is that this is consistent with what has been in evidence for the last 2.5 years, Ukrainian tactical gains that in the end they can’t hold against the Russian grind. 

Meanwhile, I think it is significant that Russian use of glide bombs continues to slowly rise. These weapons (mainly 500 and 1500 kg (1100 and 3300lb)) are far more destructive that artillery or battlefield rockets (122MM rockets) and the steady destruction of Ukrainian towns and cities, and defensive positions, continues at a slowly increasing pace. 

Meanwhile, the air defense picture appears to be weakening. Several nights ago, during which a number of missiles struck in the Kyiv area, there was, reportedly, only a single Patriot missile fired in response. There are multiple possible explanations, but the simple fact remains that only one missile was fired (and reportedly did not intercept the target it was fired at).

Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia are having less impact than was hoped and the Russia economy and Russian society is proving more resilient than earlier assessments.

Russian sources can read the newspapers as well as anyone else and will realize that the Ukrainian power grid continues to degrade and presumably will continue to strike it. Meanwhile, glide bomb strikes on targets in Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole, Konstiantinivka and Slovyansk can be expected to continue. Those cities are being slowly reduced and are in different stages of destruction. It is going to be a very long winter for Ukraine, especially for the cities near the front lines.

v/r - pete