January 20th, 2026

Politics - Power outages continue

- Some small progress in talks in Florida

Combat Ops - Marginal Russian gains

- More drone and missile strikes  

Weather

The very cold weather continues.

Kharkiv

18 and partly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Very cold, high temperatures in the teens through Sunday. Wind chills near zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

16 and partly cloudy. Cold and clear tomorrow mooring, but warming into the upper 20s. Snow on Thursday, rain showers daily, Monday through Thursday next week. Temperatures will be in the 20s through Sunday, then warming into the 30s next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

10 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then clouding up on Thursday, snow on the weekend. Very cold weather continues through Saturday, daily highs in the teens. Sunday will see some warming into the upper 20s, then colder again nest week. Wind chills around zero this week, single digits next week. Winds westerly through tomorrow, 5-10kts, then easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics

Emergency restrictions on electricity usage remain in effect in much of Ukraine.

A Ukrenergo spokesman (Ukrenergo is the state run electricity “company”)  commented:

"Power engineers from Ukrenergo and other companies are doing everything possible to restore supply to all consumers or at least significantly reduce outage times in each oblast of Ukraine. But for this, the power system needs help."

“This is because the aggressor [Russia] carried out a combined strike that damaged both generation facilities and the electricity transmission and distribution networks.”

Kyiv city, Kyiv Oblast, and Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava and Sumy oblasts are currently have the greatest number of unscheduled power outages. But, as of this morning  Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Rivne are also without power following last night’s strikes; Odessa reported 30,800 houses without power.

In eastern Kyiv (on the east bank of the Dnepr River) 3,500 buildings were without water or electricity this morning, and 5,600 residential buildings in western Kyiv were also without heating this morning. Vice PM for Reconstruction / Minister of Energy Kuleba said that they expected to restore power and heat and water by the end of today.

"The situation remains difficult, we are working on specific and systemic solutions… The strategic task is a plan for the development of the city's distributed generation. We must reach additional capacities of over 100 MW. This will make the capital more resistant to attacks.”

Lead Ukrainian negotiator Umerov commented that Ukrainian and Russia representatives met in Florida this past weekend, discussed security guarantees “in detail,” with “a focus on practical mechanisms for their implementation.”

Talks will reportedly continue in Davos, Switzerland.

Czech President Pavel on Friday reiterated a promise made in 2024 that the Czech Republic would provide L-159 aircraft (designed as a basic jet trainer, also used for light attack) to Ukraine for use in shooting down drones.

On Monday Czech PM Babis corrected that, and said the republic will not  provide aircraft to Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no substantive changes to the front lines in the last several days. Imagery did confirm small Russian gains south-east of Sumy city in the village of Vysoke (population of 28 before the war), about 3 miles north of Hrabivske (population of, perhaps, 700 prior to the war) which the Russian forces occupied a few days before Christmas. The town offers no tactical or operational value, so presumably is an irritant, trying to push Ukrainian forces to shift and weaken other areas of the line.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv, with reports of repeated Russian recon probes, as well as east of Kharkiv, along the border just north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes in these areas.

However, imagery did for the first time show Russian forces had seized the small “peninsula” of land called Dehtyarne, a farm and village of perhaps 4 families, north-east of Kharkiv about 60 miles, that connects to the rest of Ukraine through a single, 2 lane road. Russia has repeatedly claimed that it has taken this piece of terrain over the past half year, this is first imagery that shows actual Russian occupation.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk, and in the large pocket east of Kupyansk, but there have been no substantive changes in the front lines. The pocket, all east of the Oskil River, is about 12 miles north to south, and 9 miles east to west, the west edge formed by the Oskil River. What is of note is that President Putin referenced that there were 15 Ukrainian battalions in the pocket (he suggested they are trapped, they are not). But, assuming his statement as to numbers is roughly accurate, there are 6 Russian brigades along the perimeter of the pocket, which would be consistent with 15 battalions (roughly 5 brigades) defending. 

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains west and south-west of Zarichne about 3 miles, pushing on the eastern edge of Lyman, and now control all the terrain east of a line running due north out of Lyman, and the terrain east and south-east of Lyman, to Siversk. This places firmly controlled Russian terrain within 12 miles of Slovyansk. The northern-most city on the fortress belt.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Imagery confirmed that Russian forces control the towns of Stupochky and Predtechyne, south-west of Chasiv Yar, have advanced north-west of Predtechyne, and continue recon probes and infiltration into Kostiantinivka. At the same time imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in Ivanopillia, south-east of Kostiantinivka, about 5 miles north-west of Toretsk.

Further west, fighting continues along the front line north of the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad battlefield, but there were no confirmed changes.

In the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad area, the southern border of the Myrnhrad pocket now appears to be the H-32 roadway, the west edge of the pocket perhaps 2,000 feet east of the village of Svitle, and the east edge a bit more than a mile away, just on the east side of the remains of the large coal mine; the north edge of the pocket is a little more than a mile away; the north-west remains open as an avenue for resupply or withdrawal, but is under direct fire and drone strike from Russian forces.

Ukrainian forces continue to control the north-west end of Pokrovsk and probe into the city. Gen Syrskyi maintains that Ukrainian forces will retake Pokrovsk.  

Further to the southwest, between Pokrovsk and the Vovcha River there were no changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along there front lines south of the Vovcha River, in and around Hulyaipole and west, to include reports of fighting near the Antonvosky bridge, just up river from Kherson. But there were no confirmed charges in the front lines in any of these areas.

Ukraine’s Southern Command reports increased Russian activity on the southern eastern and north-western approaches to Hulyaipole, and Russian probes continue into the center and west side of the city.

One Russian source reports that Russian forces are having trouble consolidating positions in the towns west of Orkihiv because there are literally no buildings or walls left standing and therefore nothing to uses as a starting point for defensive positions. Given some pictures I have seen of some of these towns, this sounds sadly, bizarrely credible.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 19th-January 20th, Russian forces launched at least 1 x Zircon hypersonic missile, 18 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 15 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 339 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 14 ballistic missiles, 13 cruise missiles, and 315 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target; 287 buildings remain without power in Kyiv.

Ni civilian casualty report had been released as I wrote this. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 10 towns.

During the period from January 16th through January 19th Russian forces launched at least 461 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 252 drones. 

Damage was reported in cities scattered across most of eastern and central Ukraine.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 4 wounded.

Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) is reporting that Russia is considering strikes on certain substations that support Ukraine’s nuclear power stations, as part of the campaign to reduce electricity supply (and heat and water in many cases) to Ukrainian cities.

As a reminder, Ukrainian civilian (domestic) power requirement is 18 GW; current generation capacity is 11 GW. Striking one or more of these substations would further reduce the available supply.

Ukrainian forces claim to have struck the Saratov oil refinery (on the Volga River, about 400 miles south-east of Moscow) during the night of January 18th-19th

Ukrainian drones also struck the power grid in Luhansk Oblast, causing a short power outage.

Ukrainian forces released a video showing a Ukrainian “Sting” drone, designed to intercept Russian dozens, hitting and bringing down a jet-powered Shahed drone, a demonstration of the continual and rapid development cycles on both sides 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan16 Jan20

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 64.29 64.96

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 59.67 60.37

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.08 3.85

Wheat     8.52         5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.19 5.10

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 78.15 77.73

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.34 43.28

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 54.57 55.73

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 56.08 56.22

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 58.99 59.35

Thoughts

There is a great deal of goofy reporting going on, as the propaganda machines seem to have cycled into high gear.

Ukrainian propaganda reports that the Russian economy teeters on the brink, that Russia’s army is crumbling and will fall apart before the end of the year and that Putin will have no option but to mobilize and that point his people will rise up and throw him out. Meanwhile, Russian casualties, so the story goes, continue to mount at what can only be called a phenomenal rate and the Ukrainian Army, having learned from the last 4 years, and especially from the 2023 counter-offensive, will go on the attack this year and will “devastate” the Russian army.

Meanwhile, the Russian propaganda machine, also in full gear, cranks out story after story about Russian forces in this or that village, this or that town, this or that city, when, in fact, there are no more than a handful of Russian soldiers anywhere near that village or town or city. And several key Russian figures (Medvedev, Lavrov, and Putin) continue to make all sorts of promises and threats that simply don't match any actions.

It is as if nothing that is said by any capital anywhere (to include not just Kyiv or Moscow, but London, Paris and Berlin) has any real contact with reality and should just be ignored, at least in regard to how the war on the ground is being fought.

Meanwhile there is this, the tale of numbers told by one sad, harsh element of the war in which both sides are actually doing what they promised: the exchange of the dead.

On December 19th Russia and Ukraine exchanged bodies of dead soldiers; Ukraine turned over the bodies of 30 dead Russian soldiers; Russia turned over the bodes of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers. That brought the total for calendar year 2025 to 16,070 dead Ukrainian soldiers turned over to Ukraine and 191 dead Russian soldiers turned over to Russia (assuming my math is correct). You read that correctly: less than 200 versus more than 16,000.

This is a strange and gory facet of this war, the exchange of bodies, but it serves, if nothing else, to point out that whatever the correct count is on casualties (which I assume we will never see), the public counts are mostly wrong, and probably vastly so. 

That a great many have been killed is a given. But it begs credulity that an army could have been so badly manhandled as the Russian army by the Ukrainian army, as most reporting claims, that they suffered more than a quarter million KIAs in 2025 (some accounts place the number at 400,000 or more), while Ukraine suffered fewer than 20,000 killed, and yet Ukrainian forces recovered fewer than 200 Russian bodies, and Russian forces recovered something like 75% of all Ukrainian KIAs??? Yet, Russian ground gains have been very slow, and a very high percentage of casualties are, by all accounts, caused by artillery and drone strikes on troops in or immediately in front of their own lines. 

Something really doesn’t match. But the numbers are real: 16,070 Ukrainian dead returned compared to 191 Russian returned.

Meanwhile, as the poor citizens of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities freeze in the dark, Ukrainian forces responded by striking other power grids. Beginning in December they have conducted strikes into Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, knocking out the power to some 60,000 houses in Belgorod last week, at least for a few hours.

While this may not provide any real strategic benefit to Ukrainian war aims, there is a public morale component that makes sense - people do want revenge.

But over the past several week power grid targets were struck in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and over the weekend in occupied Zaporizhia oblast, the latest knocking out power to more than 200,000 people in Mariupol for the better part of a day. And while the strikes on Belgorod has merit, in some sense (revenge has some “appeal" in war), Kyiv insists those people are all Ukrainians; so they are now attacking their own people?

v/r pete