January 23rd, 2026

Politics - Trilateral talks in UAE

- Power Grid in Kyiv still a problem, 1,200 buildings still without

Combat Ops - Both sides marginal gains, Myrnohrad difficult 

Weather

The very cold weather continues.

Kharkiv

11 and partly cloudy, winds gusting to 20. Clouding up tonight and cloudy for the next week. Snow showers or snow-sleet showers on and off for the next week. Very cold through Tuesday, with high temperatures in the teens, wind chills below zero. Wednesday through the end of next week temperatures in the low 30s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

20 and light snow, gusting to 20. Cloudy all week, snow on Saturday, snow-ice Monday. Daily highs in the mid 20s, daily lows on the low 20s through Tuesday, then several days of temperatures in the low 30s. Wind chills in the teens. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

14 and light snow, gusting to 20. Cloudy through all next week, snow starts on Sunday, rain-ice-snow mix for the following 7 days. Very cold through Sunday, daily highs in the low teens, warming on Monday to low 30s, but high 20s rest of the week. Wind chills around zero this week, low 20s next week. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

The first trilateral meeting - Russia, Ukraine, USA - is reportedly ongoing as I write this, in the UAE, with a second meeting scheduled for tomorrow. 

Ambassador Witkoff and Presidential Advisor, Mr Kushner met with President Putin (before flying to Switzerland); following the meeting Witkoff commented that the negotiations between Russian and Ukraine are “down to one issue” and then added that "And we have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it's solvable.”

Witkoff and Kushner will be present for the talks in the UAE.

Witkoff did not hint what that issue might be, but I would guess (along with several tens of million others) that it has something to do with ceding land to Russia (de facto, not de jure).

Witkoff commented, before leaving Switzerland for the UAE: 

"The President [President Trump] has talked about a tariff-free zone from Ukraine that I think would be game-changing.”

"I think we made a lot of progress. I think in the beginning of this process there was a little bit of confusion. I was going to Moscow quite a bit, but I think it was important that we go there because we're at the end now and I actually am optimistic.

The director of the League of Energy Development, Oleksandr Holizdra, commented on sate of the power grid: 

"Next week should be easier, provided that the Russians do not strike hard again. Provided that there are no new strikes, the schedules may be approximately 3-3.5 lines.”

This would translate into about 12 hours of electricity per day for Kyiv’s residents.

As of 1800 Kyiv time today (0900 EST) there were 1,200 apartment buildings in Kyiv with no power, per Mayor Klitschko, and efforts continue to restore power and water and heat, an improvement from 1,940 buildings as of this morning in Kyiv, and 2,600 last night.

"Utility workers and power engineers continue working to restore the heat supply to all residential buildings that remain without heating."

Politico has published a draft agreement between the US, EU and Ukraine for an $800 billion, multi-year year recovery plan for Ukraine, with funding through 2040.

The plan would include $500 billion in public and private capital from the US, EU and various international financial institutions (IMF, etc.), plus $100 billion in budget support from the EU, and $200 billion in private investment. 

It would also include a “fast-track” EU membership for Ukraine, with membership by 2027.

At the same, Hungarian PM Orban commented that no Hungarian Parliament would agree to Ukrainian membership in the next 100 years. New members require unanimous approval from current members.

In the “interesting comment” section, President Zelenskyy sniped at Europe:

"Last year, here in Davos, I concluded my speech with these words: 'Europe must know how to defend itself.' A year has passed. And nothing has changed.”

Ukrainian MinDef Fedorov dismissed 5 deputy defense ministers yesterday (Anatoliy Klochko, Oleksandr Kozenko, Mykola Shevtsov, Volodymyr Zaverukha, and Hanna Hvozdiar). No reason was given, and reportedly several will remain in the ministry at other positions.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued north of Sumy City and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. There are reports of small Russian gains in eastern Vovchansk, and the Russian MinDef claims Russian gains south of Vovchansk, but neither can be confirmed.

Fighting was also reported around the small village of Ambarne, on the edge of a small forest just north-east of the town, about 14 miles north of the Oskil River, perhaps 3 miles west of the Ukraine - Russia border, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along essentially the entire front line from the Donets River north to Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes except in the immediate Lyman area. Of note, Ukrainian forces spokesman commented that there are no more than 50 Russian troops remaining in Kupyansk. Since mid-December the Ukrainian forces estimate has remained below 100 Russian troops in the city (it was never more than a light battalion, it was “fewer than 200" by the end of November), but Ukrainian forces are having difficulty digging out these few troops, 

This is a hallmark of the fighting in this war on both sides: small elements get isolated, but dig in and hold for extended periods of time, as the Russians are still digging small pockets of Ukrainian troops out of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues in the general area west of Siversk, between Siversk and Slovyansk, as well as in an arc north and just east of Lyman. Russian reports claim Russian gains in this area but they can’t be confirmed. Imagery confirmed Russian gains south-west of Siversk, pushing into the small village of Riznykivka (population was less than 500 before the war). The village lies just west of Sviato-Pokrovske, and lies on the banks of the Sukha River. These two towns lie immediately south (less than a half-mile) of a plateau - ridge that is about 150 - 200 feet higher than the towns themselves. The Russians control the high ground which makes holding the towns very difficult. There is a third village, Kalenyky, immediately west of Riznykivka, which will be equally difficult to hold.

North-west of Toretsk imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces seized a small lodgment at the southern end of Ivanopillia, and imagery also confirms Ukrainian forces holding pockets inside eastern Kostiantinivka even as Russian recon probes keep pushing into the east end and center of the city.

Further west, north of the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad pocket, imagery confirmed Russian gains just north of Dorozhnie, as fighting continued along most of that northern facing edge of the front line.

There is no imagery to confirm this, but Ukrainian forces maps show the Myrnohrad pocket shrinking and the southern edge of Ukrainian controlled territory is now (per the Ukrainian General Staff reports) roughly a mile north of the T0504 (or H32) roadway, a shift north of about a mile in just three days. The east end of the pocket has also shifted west a bit more than a mile, meaning that the pocket (assuming the map is correct) has been squeezed to half its size in the last 3 or 4 days.

Fighting continues in the north-west quadrant of Pokrovsk, but there was no change to the front lines. Russian forces did have small confirmed gains in south-eastern Hryshyne, northwest of Pokrovsk, 

Further to the west and south-west, Russian forces had confirmed gains in Novopavlivka, pushing into the south-west edge of the city. At the same time, reporting suggests that Russian forces have nearly finished straightening lines east of Filiia, clearing the mostly empty farmland east of that town.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along much of the front line in Southern Ukraine, and imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed back into Russian controlled terrain and have pushed back into the south side of the village of Kosivtseve (north-west of Dobrypillia about 3 miles). Ukrainian forces also pushed into the village of Zelene, also along the Haichur River, a bit more than 3 miles downriver from Hulyaipole.

At the same time, Russian forces continue to push into Hulyaipole, and Russian forces appear to have reached the west edge of north-western Hulyaipole. Russian forces have also pushed further southwest on the T0814 roadway, and are at or near the west edge of Hulyaipole and about 1.5 miles from Zaliznychne. If accurate, this gives Russia control of perhaps 80% of Hulyaipole.

Fighting continues south-east and west of Orikhiv but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 22nd-January 23rd, Russian forces launched at least 101 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 76 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. There was an initial report this afternoon that Russian forces have struck the thermal power plant in Slovyansk. There is no report yet as to the extent of damage.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 dead and 10 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

During the night of January 21st-January 22nd, Russian forces launched at least 1 ballistic missile and 94 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 80 drones. The Ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih, in Dnipropetrovsk.

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 dead and 16 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 11 towns.

During the night of January 20th-January 21st Ukrainian drones struck the Oryol thermal power plant causing a power outage in that city; Oryol is about 100 miles north-east of the north-east corner of Ukraine, about 200 miles south-west of Moscow.

During the night of January 20th-January 21st, Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander Ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-22 cruise missile, and 97 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 84 drones. 

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 dead and 3 wounded. 

RuAF tacair struck targets in 12 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan21 Jan23

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 64.94 65.78

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 60.41 61.02

NG       3.97        3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 4.62 5.23

Wheat     8.52  5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.09 5.21

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 76.70 75.70

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.15

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.85 54.76

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 57.19 55.47

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 59.62 59.72

Thoughts

Weather is the issue, on top of the power grid. Next week is supposed to be marginally warmer in Kyiv, assuming the forecasters are correct. But that only matters if there is some power. 

At the same time, it’s worth noting that the Russians haven’t had a large scale strike package in several days, which means one is probably due this weekend. 

Currently, Kyiv’s residents are, for the most part, hanging tough. Running out of heat and water and lights and not having workable toilets can be managed for a few days. But only for a few days. The toilets, individually, and the sewers and waste treatment collectively, can become a very difficult health problem very quickly. Individual toilets and pipes freeze up but can be fixed quickly.. The sewers and major water pipes were drained to prevent catastrophic freezing and they will need to be refilled, something that presents real risks if the power is unreliable and the strikes (and cold weather) continue. 

v/r pete