January 15th, 2026

Politics - Ukraine National Emergency - Power Grid

- MinDef Fedorov: 2 million missing, 200,000 AWOL

Combat Ops - No significant changes in the front lines

- Russian gains near Hulyaipole

Weather

The very cold weather continues.

Kharkiv

11 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly to partly cloudy for the next week. Very cold, daily high temperatures will remain in the low teens, daily lows in single digits, often near zero, wind chill near or below zero, at times dropping to as low as minus 10. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

19 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Snow showers possible tomorrow, cloudy through the weekend. Cold, daily highs around 20, daily lows in the low teens, occasionally in single digits, wind chills at or below zero.   Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

5 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next week, very cold. In only 3 of the next 5 days will temperatures rise into double digits - in early afternoon reaching 11 or 12 degrees. At no point in the next 10 days is the temperature forecast to reach 20, and the long range forecast says that the cold will deepen at the end of next week. Daily lows will be at or below zero. Wind chills could be lower than minus 10. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Today, per the order of President Zelenskyy, Ukraine is working through a national emergency as it struggles to repair damage to the power grid as a result of Russian drone and missile strikes.

As of Wednesday 471 buildings inside Kyiv still had no heat and as of today more than 300 still do not have heat - this from damage as a result of air strikes over the last week. 

At one point during last weekend more than 6,000 apartment buildings in the city were without heat. 

Last night a “major power facility” in Kharkiv - not further identified, has been struck by Russian strike drones, is reportedly “destroyed,” and the city is apparently mostly blacked out.

Zelenskyy on X:

A meeting on emergency situation in Ukraine’s energy sector, with special attention to Kyiv.

The consequences of Russian strikes and deteriorating weather conditions are severe. Repair crews, energy companies, municipal services, and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine continue to work around the clock to restore electricity and heating. Many issues require urgent resolution. I thank everyone involved and working at full efficiency.

First – a permanent coordination headquarters will be established to address the situation in the city of Kyiv. Overall, a state of emergency will be declared for Ukraine’s energy sector. The First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Energy of Ukraine has been assigned to oversee work supporting people and communities under these conditions, as well as to address practical issues.

Second – government officials will maximize efforts with partners to obtain the necessary equipment and additional support. The Cabinet of Ministers will ensure maximum deregulation of all processes for connecting backup energy equipment to the grid during this situation. Work is also underway to significantly increase the volume of electricity imports into Ukraine.

Third – I have tasked the Government with preparing a review of curfew regulations for this extremely cold weather. People must have the greatest possible access to assistance points, and businesses – every opportunity to plan their operations according to the situation in the energy system. In Kyiv, the number of Points of Invincibility must be increased, and existing ones inspected. We expect proposals from the Ministry of Education and Science and from local authorities regarding formats for the educational process during this state of emergency.

It is crucial that state institutions, businesses, and all levels of local government now work coherently and in coordination. The outcome of each contributes to the collective result for the entire country. Glory to Ukraine!

As noted yesterday, Ukraine has a new Minster of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov (the 4th MinDef since the start of the war). Fedorov commented yesterday:

“I don’t want to be a populist, I want to be a realist.”

“The Ministry of Defence falls into my hands with minus 300 billion [hyrvnia, $7 billion], two million Ukrainians who are wanted, and 200,000 are absent without leave (AWOL). Therefore, we need to decide, do our homework on the problems that exist today, so that we can move forward.”

Poland’s Deputy PM Gawkowski reported on Tuesday that Russia conducted a cyber attack on the Polish power grid at the end of December, targeting a thermal power plant and there was a significant risk of a nation-wide blackout.

Energy Minister Motyka: “In the final days of 2025, a large-scale attempt was made to hack the energy system, the most powerful attack on the Polish power system in years… it was successfully repelled. This is the first time we’ve encountered multiple attempts at attacks on individual generating sources – solar farms and even individual wind turbines. It involved an attempt to disrupt communication between generating installations and grid operators across a large area of Poland.”

“We have not see this type of attack [on smaller-scale renewable facilities] before, but we can expect it to happen again.”

Gawkowski, answering a question, commented that Poland had come close to a blackout… very close.”

“The scale of this attack, the vector of entry and who was behind it indicate that it was a coordinated operation intended to deliberately cut off power to Polish citizens. Everything points to Russian sabotage…intended to destabilise the situation in Poland.”

He added:

“Polish security services and the Polish institutions responsible for cybersecurity rose to the occasion. We have well-prepared institutions and there is no need to panic; Poland is the most [cyber]attacked country in the European Union.”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV

Fighting continues north of Sumy City but there were no changes to the front lines in that area. However, Russian MinDef claims that Russian forces have pushed across the border about 40. Miles north-west of Sumy City and seized the small town of Komarivka (perhaps 20-30 houses on either side of a dead-end road in the middle of farmland). This is similar to the Russian seizure of the Hrabovske (south-east of Sumy City), a few days before Christmas - a small Russian unit pushing across the border and seizing an undefended town. If the Ukrainian army moves a unit, the Russians slowly withdraw, and the “success” is the movement of the Ukrainian army unit. If not, then it becomes a small propaganda victory.

North of Kharkiv, fighting continues along the perimeter of the Russian lodgment, and imagery confirmed Russian recon probes into eastern Vovchansk.

There was no change to the lines just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting is reported just east of Kupyansk and to the south-east of Kupyansk but there were no changes to the lines in that area.

Fighting was also reported along most of the line southward to the Donets River but there were no confirmed changes to the line.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues south-east of Lyman, on both sides of the Donets River, as Russian forces continue to probe westward. But there were no confirmed changes to the front lines in this area.

From eastern Kostiantinivka westwards to Dobropillia, Russian forces continue to probe into Ukrainian terrain but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. That said, Ukrainian reporting notes Russian glide bomb and MLRS (battlefield artillery rockets) strikes into the cities, with at least 1 civilian wounded in Slovyansk by a rocket strike.

In and around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad there continue to be multiple daily reports of troops in contact, and particularly in Myrnohrad they appear to be well scattered across the city, with elements dug in and holding in street-to-street, house-to-house fighting with no real “front line.”

Russian forces appear to be forcing a bit of order on most of Pokrovsk itself, with only the north-west corner of the city still showing the presence of Ukrainian troops.

Further to the south and south-west fighting continues in and around Novopavlivka, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces continue to probe into Ukrainian towns on the front line, but there were no changes to the front lines 

In the Hulyaipole area imagery confirmed Russian forces operating several miles west of the city. This is all open farmland and the Ukrainian fortifications in the area were constructed oriented towards a possible attack from the south or south-east; the Russian units are now just north and west of those positions.

There were no changes to the front lines further west.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 14th-January 15th, Russian forces launched at least two unidentified ballistic missiles and 82 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 61 drones. The ballistic missiles (probably MLRS rockets) struck Mykolaiv. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. As of this morning more than 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without power.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 killed and 4 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

During the night of January 13th-14th Ukrainian drones struck a chemical plant in Rostov City (just east of the east end of the Sea of Azov), and imagery confirmed a fire near the plant.

During the night of January 13th-January 14th, Russian forces launched at least 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 123 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 1 ballistic missile and 99 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy  oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target, and damage from earlier strikes is still being repaired across the country. As of this morning more than 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without power.

Civilian casualties include at least 4 killed and 10 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 6 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan14 Jan15

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 65.92 63.70

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 61.49 59.27

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.11 3.04

Wheat     8.52         5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.11 5.14

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 78.50 78.47

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.38 43.55

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 55.85 56.62

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 57.45 59.52

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 59.94 59.85

Thoughts

The power grid situation is grim, but it appears that the Ukrainian government, and particularly the Kyiv city government are getting their arms around it.

What is perhaps of greater concern is the statement by the MinDef: 2 million wanted, 200,000 AWOL.

What the minister means is that there are 200,000 (that is the conservative number, some government estimates place it closer to 300,000) soldiers who have deserted, and the more than 2 million Ukrainian men of conscription age: 25 - 60, who have dodged conscription - perhaps half by leaving the country, the rest by going into hiding inside Ukraine.

The desertion versus AWOL issue revolves around Ukrainian law, which sees little meaningful difference between not showing up for duty (AWOL) and desertion (going over the hill). The result is that once you have gone AWOL, there is little incentive to return, and the AWOL soldier becomes a casualty of sorts.

To put this in perspective, Russian desertions (again, Russia has a larger army and 5 times more people) are estimated to be approximately 50,000.

But, more disconcerting are the 2 million men who have managed to avoid the draft, more than a million by simply leaving the country. (The similar number for the Russians is between 650,000 and 900,000.)

The problem with this is that demographically Ukraine is approaching a real limit. During WWII the US peaked with 13 million in uniform, right at 10% of the population. (Nazi Germany had 19%, and they were self destructing in doing that.) But in fact, we had a hard time maintaining that large a percentage, and even during the middle of the last century maintaining an army of more than a few percentage points is an excruciating expense. As Fedorov points out, he is $7 billion short already.

If Ukraine were to maintain a force of 3% of the population, that would nominally be 1.2 million (assuming a population of 43 million, the population in 2021). If 10% represents the possible pool, that means 4.3 million citizens to generate and sustain an army of 1 million. But the population of Ukraine is, in fact, about 31 million, per the World Bank. 

This means that the real pool of “possible soldiers,” is more on the order of 3 - 3.5 million. With 900,000 already serving, 2 million “wanted,” 200,000 labeled deserters, and something on the order of 200,000 killed and 200,000 severely wounded (and possibly more), Ukraine is on the verge of running out of soldiers.

v/r - pete