January 16th, 2026 NEXT Summary Tuesday, January 20th

Politics - Ukrainian Delegation en route Washington

- Power grid struggles continue 

Combat Ops - Few changes, cold a problem

- Some small Russian gains near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole

Weather

The very cold weather continues.

Kharkiv

10 and partly cloudy. Mostly to partly cloudy for the next week. Very cold, warmest forecast is 19 next Wednesday afternoon. Daily high temperatures will remain in the low teens, daily lows in single digits, wind chill near or below zero, at times dropping to as low as minus 10. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

13 and light snow, gusting over 20. Cloudy through the weekend, next week partly cloudy. Cold, daily highs around 20, warmest forecast afternoon is 25, next Monday. Daily lows in the low teens, occasionally in single digits, wind chills nearing zero.   Winds north-easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

1 and partly cloudy. Sunny tomorrow and Sunday morning, then cloudy for the next week, very cold. Next Thursday is forecast to have the highest temperature for the next 10 days: 17 by late afternoon. Daily lows will be in single digits and may occasionally dip below zero. Wind chills often below zero. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

The Ukrainian delegation is en route Washington for further talks on a peace proposal.

The delegation includes: Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Umerov, Head of the President's Office Budanov and Head of the Servant of the People faction Arakhamia.

President Zelenskyy commented:

"The Ukrainian delegation - Rustem Umerov, Kyrylo Budanov and Davyd Arakhamia - is now on its way to the United States, and we hope that there will be more clarity both regarding the documents that we have actually prepared with the American side, and regarding russia's response to all the diplomatic work that has been taking place.”

Zelenskyy’s post on X

Despite everything, the Ukrainian team is actively working with representatives of the President of the United States - meetings of our representatives are scheduled for these days. The Ukrainian delegation - Rustem Umerov, Kyrylo Budanov and David Arakhamia - is now on its way to the United States, and we hope that there will be more clarity both regarding the documents that we have already actually prepared with the American side, and regarding Russia's response to all the diplomatic work that has been taking place. He said this during a meeting with media representatives together with the President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel.

Per Minister of Energy Shmyhal, every major element of the Ukrainian power grid has been damaged by Russian strikes.

"There is not a single power plant left in Ukraine that would not have been hit by the enemy during the war. Thousands of megawatts of generation have been knocked out.”

In 2025, Russian forces struck elements of the power grid 612 times.

24 large, mobile generators are now providing power reduced for eastern Kyiv, and street lighting will be reduced for the foreseeable future.

President Macron yesterday claimed that France now provides 2/3rd of the intelligence that Ukraine is using, having largely replaced the US.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along most of the front lines north of Sumy City but there were no confirmed changes.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv in the Vovchansk area, and along the border north of the Oskil River, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces picking up ground on the north-west edge of Kupyansk and other reporting supports the assessment that Russian positions in Kupaynsk, which appear to be surrounded, total less than 50 troops. Further reporting suggests that Russian forces inside Kupyansk have numbered less than 100 since at least early December. Nevertheless, these 3 or 4 small Russian elements appear to be dug in like a tick, and Ukrainian forces are still working to clear the city.

Further, Russian forces continue to probe other areas of the city and areas just east of the city along the Oskil River, and Russian forces north-east of Kupyansk, just west of Synkivke, are probing down the Oskil river towards the city.

There were no confirmed changes to the front line further south, to the Donets River, though Russian probes continue into Lyman.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North of Bakhmut, just west of Siversk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces pushed into Svyato-Pokrovske, just south-west of Siversk. Ukrainian forces are on the low ground of the town proper, under Russian positions on the bluffs less than a half mile to the north; this will be hard to hold unless they take the bluff.

Fighting continues in the east end of Kostiantinivka and in the small towns to the east and south-west (north-west from Toretsk). Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had pushed into the western end of Predtechyne, in what appears to be another “yin and yang” tactical setup, with Ukrainian and Russian elements trying to flank each other.

In Kostiantinivka itself multiple Russian recon probes were reported but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Further to the west, north of the Pokrovsk area and Myrnohrad, there were no changes to the lines.

Fighting continues in Pokrovsk and Myrhnohrad, and imagery confirmed some Russian gains in the north end of the Myrnohrad pocket. The pocket is now about 2 miles across at its greatest extent (east-west) and 1.5 miles across (north-south), with the “mouth” of the pocket perhaps 3/4th of a mile across. Russian forces are using the rail line that runs just west and north of Svitle to move into the area.

Fighting also continues west of Pokrovsk - in the direction of Hryshyne (just north-east of Pokrovsk) and further to the south-west, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River fighting was reported from the Vovcha River south along the Haichur River and into Hulyaipole, as well as further west in the Orkihiv area and west to the Dnepr River, but there were were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

There is an as yet unconfirmed report that heavy bombers of the 11th Air Force are striking targets in Hulyaipole and north-west and just west of Hulyaipole. The 11th Air Force heaviest assigned aircraft are SU-34s (Fullback - an SU-27 derivative strike aircraft). However, both TU-95 (Bear) and TU-22 (Backfire) bombers have, in the past have been temporarily assigned to the 11th Air Force.

Air and Maritime Operations 

During the night of January 15th-January 16th, Russian forces launched at least 76 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 53 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Sumy oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target; 287 buildings remain without power in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 13 towns.

During the night of January 14th-January 15th Ukrainian forces reported they struck Nevinnomyssk Azot plant in Stavropol Krai, about 175 miles east-south-east of the Sea of Azov. Imagery showed smoke and fires, but the extent of the damage is unknown.

During the night of January 14th-January 15th, Russian forces launched at least two unidentified ballistic missiles and 82 x strike drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 61 drones. The ballistic missiles (probably MLRS rockets) struck Mykolaiv. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts.  Energy infrastructure was again the primary target. As of this morning more than 1,000 residential buildings in Kyiv are without power.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 killed and 4 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair struck targets in 8 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Jan15 Jan16

Brent      94.71    67.03 66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 63.70 64.29

WTI     92.10    63.26 62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 59.27 59.67

NG       3.97         3.12 3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.04 3.08

Wheat     8.52         5.22 5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.14 5.19

Ruble     85          84.03 81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 78.47 78.15

Hryvnia 28.6 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.55 43.34

Urals 91.66 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.62 54.57

ESPO 94.52 68.32 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.52 56.08

Sokol 99.31 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 59.85 58.99

Thoughts

As an follow-on to yesterday’s discussion on casualties, a very quick look at Russia’s casualties. The KIA count is based on analysis by Mediazone, which has consistently tracked with other snapshots of data from other sources. The other numbers are based on comments from senior Russians relative to their KIA counts. 

Russian KIAs (I’ve rounded off the numbers) 165,000 - 220,000 KIA

Severely wounded, no return to duty, essentially the same number (165 - 220K)

Wounded, eventually return to duty: 500,000 - 800,000

Deserters: 50,000-65,000

Dodged conscription 650,000 - 900,000

POWs perhaps 10,000 - 15,000 - these numbers are closely held, but appear to be roughly equal on both sides.

This leaves the following:

Russia Ukraine

KIA 165-220K 180-240K

Wounded 165-220K 180-240K

(No return to duty)

Wounded 500-800K 540-900K

(Return to Duty)

Desertions 50-65K 200K

Dodged 650-900K 2,000K

Conscription

POWs 10K 10K

Total  890-1,315K 1,110-1,590K

Casualties

Total  380-505K 560-680K

Unrecoverable Losses (KIA + Severely Wounded + Desertions)

v/r - pete