The tragedy in Japan is seemingly beyond description. If you are not directly involved with providing aid there seems to be little to do but watch – and pray. And with each passing day it seems that the nuclear power plants are degrading and the danger of a major radiation leak increases.
What to do?
First, it is important not to panic – nothing of value comes with panic. And, the specifics of the mishap in Japan can teach us a great deal about how to prevent a similar event in another reactor, just as what happened at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl helped to improve the safety of other reactors.
We have learned how to build safer reactors. That the reactors that are at risk are older designs – 40 plus year old designs in some cases – is worthy of note. And this probably warrants some real debate in those areas where older reactors lie near earthquake faults or other possible natural disasters. But we need to conduct an orderly debate.
Second, let’s note some obvious risk factors. As with New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina, building on low-lying lands has inherent risks. Building near earthquake faults has similar risks. Electric power can be moved huge distances. Placing power stations – nuclear and non-nuclear - in low-lying areas, or near fault lines or in similar settings means accepting higher risks. Future construction of power stations, chemical plants, etc., needs to take better note of these issues. Government licensing boards need to meet, engage in strong public debate, and arrive at standards that are both achievable and safer.
Old designs need to be updated where possible, or shut down where it is not possible to bring the system into acceptable safety margins. Reactor designs of the last 15 – 20 years, particularly the ones used on US Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, are substantially safer and more reliable then any of the reactors currently at risk in Japan, or arguably anywhere in the world. These designs need to be brought into commercial use.
Third, there is a tag line for anyone that has ever handled a crisis that ‘the first report is always wrong.’ It will take months or even years to sort out what happened with the four reactors that have been damaged. It took years to sort out what happened at Three Mile Island, and despite the initial reports, the reactor never was in a real danger of a ‘meltdown,’ no people got sick, and the amount of real damage to the surrounding area or the environment was negligible. Not that that is what people remember. Horror stories about Three Mile Island still abound, founded almost completely on myth. We need to try and contain the myth.
Fourth, and finally, radiation can cause terrible damage. But this is not a 1950s movie; exposure to radiation at any level does not mean instant death or zombie-like mutations. Medical science in fact knows a good deal about radiation exposure, radiation sickness and the like. More to the point, the risk from radiation is vastly overplayed in the press. How do I know this? Easy. Let’s review some numbers.
Between 1945 and 1961 the US conducted 321 above ground nuclear tests – weapon detonations - inside the continental United States, and another 10 outside the continental US. In all, the US conducted 1054 nuclear tests, 833 underground. The Soviet Union conducted 721 tests – above and below ground (including one in 1960 of more than 50 megatons.) The French, British and Chinese combined conducted another 300 tests, at least 73 of which were above ground. All the above ground tests released radiation into the atmosphere.
To hear people speak of what is going on in Japan right now one would think that the release of radiation into the atmosphere is catastrophic at nearly any level. But, the fact is that the above ground tests over a period of 16 years, with the exception of some personnel exposed at close range, did not cause any substantial health issues. In short, the concentrated radiation released into the atmosphere by more than 500 above ground nuclear tests over a period of 16 years was safely dissipated.
Do we want radiation venting into the atmosphere? No, of course not. But we also want people to understand the simple truth that – apart from those people in the immediate area – the risk is very low. In short, we need to calm down.
To close, we must remember that life is risk. We stand on the precipice every day. In the US alone some 35,000 people die each year on our roads. That means that since the war in Afghanistan began 10 years ago, more than 350,000 people have died on our roads. More to the point, since the reactor issued developed in Japan – 6 days ago, more than 500 people have died on US highways. Further, nearly half of all fatal car accidents take place while someone is making a left hand turn. You might seriously reduce the odds of your having a car accident by eliminating left had turns from your life. Is it worth it? What is the cost (the risk) of a left hand turn worth? Does the simple convenience of being able to make left hand turns outweigh the fact that 15,000 people in the US alone died making left hand turns last year?
This nation needs electric power. There are several paths to get that power: oil powered stations, coal powered, solar powered, wind powered, nuclear powered, natural gas, etc. Each has issues. It is worth noting that coal powered stations, which generate a substantial percentage of our electric power is from coal. Each of these sources has champions, and each has its vigorous opponents. Oil, coal and natural gas will each contribute carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide to the atmosphere; wind and solar can be huge eyesores on the landscape, and are subject to the foibles of weather; nuclear carries the fears of radiation.
But the truth is we need all of them, and we need nuclear perhaps most of all, as there is no other means that can realistically meet our requirements for growth in power generation over the next 30 to 40 years. The President should lead this discussion, we need to ensure our reactors are safe, that we have the best designs and best possible construction, that our maintenance and inspections are first rate. But we do not and we must not let fear grip us and let it stop all progress.
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