December 3rd, 2025  

Politics - Witkoff - Putin - talks “constructive” 

- EU to prove 90 Billion Euros over the course of 2026-27

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Kostiantinivka, Pokrovsk

- More gains north of Hulyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog continues to be reported.

Kharkiv

37 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through Friday, then three days of partly cloudy weather, then more clouds. Temperatures in the mid 30s through Thursday, then colder, lows and highs in the low 30s, occasionally dropping into the upper 20s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

41 and cloudy. Cloudy through Thursday, some sun possible on Friday and the weekend, then more clouds. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Kyiv

39 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain showers tonight, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows and highs in the low 40s through Friday, then colder, temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday through Tuesday. Winds south-easterly, 10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with President Putin and Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov for almost 5 hours yesterday. Ushakov summed up the meeting:

“So far, we haven’t found a compromise, but some American solutions can be discussed,”and described the meeting as “very useful and constructive” but “a lot of work lies ahead both in Washington and in Moscow.”

Before the meeting Putin has commented on the EU that:

“They are on the side of war… We can clearly see that all these changes are aimed at only one thing: to block the entire peace process altogether, to make such demands which are absolutely unacceptable to Russia.”

President Trump commented:

“Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled… Not an easy situation. What a mess.”

President Zelenskyy’s former press secretary Yulia Mendel (press secretary from 2019 to 2021), in an interview with Radio Liberty, called Zelenskyy’s former chief of Staff Andrii Yermak:

"A very dangerous person… every day I thank God that I am alive. I understand that no one will believe this now, but I pray to God every day and thank God that I am alive. Because Andrii Borysovych is a very dangerous person. He is a very dangerous person. And those who know him will understand this.”

Mendel accused Yermak of stopping the work of various police agencies, and manipulating the power of his office for his own benefit. She also suggested that he wanted to become president after Zelenskyy.

European Commission President von der Leyen announced that the EU will provide 90 billion euros ($104 billion) over rate course fo 2026-2027) to Ukraine to support the government.

"Today, we are proposing to cover two-thirds of Ukraine's financing needs for the next two years, so this is €90 billion. The remainder would be for international partners to cover."

"First, we would use the money for Ukraine budget support, and here we would build on the success of existing instruments. You know them both. That is, on one hand, either macro-financial assistance and/or the Ukraine Facility.”

And for military assistance:

"Here, the main goal is to further boost Ukraine's defence industrial capabilities and integrate their capacities into our defence industrial base.”

"The funds would be used predominantly to produce and purchase from Ukraine and the European Union and so-called EEA[European Economic Area] after countries. But if we have urgent needs that cannot be met by Ukraine or the European Union, then we allow with this money the purchase of these urgent needs from outside.”

The EU has reached an agreement to end all purchase of Russian oil by the end of 2027. Imagine, less than 6 years…

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city; imagery confirmed Russian forces made marginal gains east of Kindrativka (about 12 miles due north of the Sumy city), and more fighting was reported in that area and along the perimeter of most of the Russian lodgment.

North of Kharkiv, Russian forces continue to attack but there are no confirmed gains in the area. That said, Gen. Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff (Russia’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs equivalent), claimed that Russian forces now controlled all of Vovchansk. Ukrainian forces denied the claim, and Gerasimov’s claim does appear to be more disinformation.

Fighting continues just north of the Oskil River along the border but, there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in Kupyansk, as do contradictory claims. Russian sources continue to claim they control the city, Ukrainian sources continue to claim they have essentially pushed the Russians out. Recent imagery confirms both are spinning tales. Imagery shows Ukrainian forces have gained ground in the south-east sector of the city, and shows Russian forces in the north-central section of the city, and Russian probes and Ukrainian counter-attacks continue over much of the city.

Further south, fighting continues north and north-east of Borova but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Nor were there any confirmed changes around Lyman or along the Nitrius River; recon probes continue into Lyman.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along the east edge of Siversk, north-east of the city, and north-west of the city, but there were no confirmed changes in the frontline.

West of Chasiv Yar Russian reporting now denies that Russian forces seized Klynove (north of Kostiantinivka) but there may have been a recon probe into that town. Fighting does continue on the east edge of Kostiantinivka, and imagery confirmed several recon probes into the city itself, one about a half mile north-east of the rail yard and another within a block of the south end of the rail yard. 

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) situation map was apparently updated yesterday and showed that Russian forces controlled up to the southern shore of the Kleban Byk Reservoir some time before December 1st, and that the towns of Katerynivka, Shcherbynivka and Kleban Byk were in Russian controlled territory, meaning that the Ukrainian elements that had been holding in those towns either withdrew or were overrun.

Fighting continues in and just north of Pokrovsk, as well as in Myrnohrad. Russian forces continue to press, Ukrainian forces continue to hold.

In Pokrovsk Russian forces are appear to be advancing slowly - street-to-street, house-to-house, trying to dig out Ukrainian elements. In Myrnohrad, reporting is more contradictory, but, it appears that Ukrainian forces are slowly withdrawing from the southern end of the pocket, and have concentrated in the center of the city. At the same time other Ukrainian elements are using drones, ATVs, etc. to continue to supply elements inside the pocket. Fighting also continues north of the pocket, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Imagery showed a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian position in northern Pokrovsk, confirming Russian control of that part of the city. 

South and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha river, Russian forces continue to attack but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Imagery confirmed Russian forces moving just north of the town of Dobropillia (8 miles north-north-west of Hulyaipole), and advancing southward along the T0401 roadway (paralleling the Haichur River). Reporting from earlier in the week suggested that Russian forces were pressing westward along a fairly broad front and some reporting suggests that Russian forces control most virtually all of the terrain north of Hulyaipole, east of the Haichur River.

Imagery also showed Russian elements being attacked inside Hulyaipole, confirming that Russian recon elements are operating inside the city.

Fighting continues immediately south and south-east of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. West of Orikhiv, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian gains into Prymorske and Stepnohirsk

Fighting was again reported in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy bridge, up river from Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 2nd-December 3rd, Russian forces launched at least 1 x ballistic missile of unknown type, and 111 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 83 drones

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts; a ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih.

Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilian killed and 2 civilians injured.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 12 towns.

Russian tanker MidVolga 2 arrived in Sinop, Turkey after being struck by surface drones on Monday. Ukraine has denied it struck the ship.

MidVolga 2 was carrying several thousand tons of sunflower oil.

Russian forces launched more than 3,500 glide bombs in November (116 per day), below the average so far this year of 131 per day (44,000 from January 1st through November). The average for 2024 was 109 per day (40,000 weapons).

During the night of December 1st-December 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 39 drones. 

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts; the struck targets being predominantly elements of the power grid. At least 36,000 homes in Odessa oblast were left temporarily without power.

There are no casualties reports yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 2 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec2 Dec3

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 62.23 62.93

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 58.44 59.16

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.91 4.94

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.33 5.39

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.18 77.68

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.32 42.16

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.22 54.18

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.88 57.67

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.05 59.39

Thoughts

Russian forces pushing into Kostiantinivka, as well as in the fight for Hulyaipole and the surrounding area, are moving faster than has been the norm over the past 18 months. I have no proof, but it seems that the Ukrainian line is continuing to thin.

The recent probes into Kostiantinivka over the last last several days (recognizing that Russian forces had not taken Klynove, but there still appears to have been a probe into that town), hint at a front line with many seams, suggesting a manpower shortage.

I’m speculating, but could the more rapid than expected Russian gains in and around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, around Kostiantinivka, and around Hulyaipole, be a function of deception? (All warfare is based on deception per Sun Tsu…) Russian spokesmen kept saying “Kupyansk is ours,” even to the point that Putin claimed it had fallen to Russian forces on 21 November. President Zelenskyy then claimed there were only 200 Russian soldiers in Kupyansk and then shifted at least 1 brigade to the city, perhaps more. Could that have simply been Putin and his generals conducting a head fake to weaken the lines elsewhere, as they pushed on Pokrovsk, Myrhnohrad, Kostiantinivka, and Hulyaipole?

Of course, that leads to wondering how much of a reserve element the Ukrainian army has remaining; the sense is that there is essentially no strategic reserve for the army.

v/r pete 

 December 2nd, 2025  

Politics - Witkoff meeting with Putin

Combat Ops - Pokrovsk 95% controlled by Russia

- Myrnohrad surrounded 

- Russian gains north of Hulkyaipole

 

Weather

Cloudy weather continues, temperatures still not cold enough to freeze the fields. Thick fog continues to be reported in the Pokrovsk area.

Kharkiv

38 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows in the low to mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

43 and cloudy. Cloudy through Thursday, some sun possible on Friday. Daily lows in the low to mid 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

36 and cloudy. Cloudy all week. Daily lows will be in the mid 30s, daily highs around 40. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Politics

Ambassador Witkoff began a meeting with President Putin around noon EDT today. As I write this they are still in the meeting.

The Netherland and Ukraine have agreed to a joint drone production effort, with the Netherlands agreeing to buy 250 million euros ($290 million) worth of weapons from Ukraine.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy City, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv; Russian sources claim the city of Vovchansk is now under Russian control but this seems to be at best an exaggeration, and should be seen at part of a Russian disinformation effort to hurt Ukrainian morale, and weaken European support for Ukraine. Russian forces do have a firm grasp of most of Vovchansk, but activate elves ahve decreased.

In both the lodgment north of Kharkiv City and that north of Sumy city, both sides have stripped out assets and shifted them southward and the lack of movement on any given day is nothing more than an indication that the main efforts are elsewhere. Russian forces will continue to conduct recon probes into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and to a lesser extent the Ukrainians will reciprocate. But on any given day activity will be limited to such probes, plus drones and artillery “plinking."

Fighting was reported just inside Ukraine, north of the Oskil River, but there was no confirmed change in the front line.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk; the only confirmed change showed Ukrainian forces control Kurylivka (about 4 miles south-east of Kupyansk) despite claims by some Russian bloggers. 

South of Kupyansk (about 6 miles north of Borova), there are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian force that was in a small pocket centered on Nova Kruhliakivka, have pushed west and retaken the town of Bohuslavka. There an also unconfirmed reports that Russian forces just to the south of this area have pushed further west. A few days of clear weather are needed to clear this up - but that is unlikely to happen until, perhaps, this coming weekend.

Further south, imagery confirms Ukrainian forces hold Stavky (about 4 miles north of Lyman), while unconfirmed reports claim Russian gains east of Lyman - which appears to be supported by Ukrainian General Staff reports, and also possible gains west of Lyman. At the same time, there are claims that despite Russian gains, the major GLOC into Lyman from the west, the C051018 roadway that runs through Drobysheve, remains open for Ukrainian logistics trucks. Given Russian drone and artillery fire, this must be quite a sporty drive.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues around Siversk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting continues west of Bakhmut along the entire forward line of troops, in particular on the east and south-east edge of Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Russian sources claim that Russian forces have taken control of Maiske (3 miles north-west of Chasiv Yar) and Klynove (6 miles west of Chasiv Yar), but this has not been confirmed.

West of Toretsk, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces pushing northward from the Shakhove area into Sofiivka, and fighting continues west of this area in Dorozhnyi and Rodynske, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

In and around Pokrovsk there is a great deal of fighting reported, characterized as fierce, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines. Ukrainian sources continue to insist that logistics support is reaching the Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad, and that Russian forces do not have full control over Pokrovsk itself.

That said, a senior, unnamed NATO official commented that Myrnohrad is now “virtually encircled.”

"There is a narrow corridor through which the Ukrainians can withdraw certain forces, but it is a very narrow corridor, itself under hostile fire control. Overall, this is an encirclement, though not yet a complete encirclement."

"Ukrainian forces are still conducting defensive actions inside the city, but as supply routes have been almost completely cut, Ukrainian troops are dependent on resupply by drones, which is becoming increasingly difficult.”

The same official commented on Pokrovsk, noting that:

”Russians control over 95% of the city… There are only isolated pockets where Ukrainian forces continue to resist."

This is almost certainly true; but the actual measure of Ukrainian presence is unknown. It is probable that Russian forces have isolated a number of Ukrainian elements inside Pokrovsk, and that Ukrainian forces continue to push into the northern edge of the Russian line, which is the northern edge of Pokrovsk itself. But there are credible sources that Russian forces pushing north from Pokrovsk have made contact with Russian forces pushing south from Rodynske, which would mean they had cut off the Pokrovsk pocket and Myrnohrad. There are some reports that some vehicles, carrying ammo and supplies are still making it through. Again, that would be a very sporty ride.

At the same time, there are reports of Russian air strikes in Myrnohrad, using FAB 500 (500KG (1100lbs) and FAB 1500 (1500KG (3300lbs)) precision glide bombs, which the Russian have used to destroy heavily built bunkers rather that trying to dig out the soldiers inside, and thus more easily move through defended urban areas. This tactic has allowed the Russians to take a number of cities with substantially reduced casualties  (Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Marinka, etc.)

Fighting continues south and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting notes Russian gains in the towns just east of Hulyaipole; it appears that all of these those towns are now occupied by Russian forces. Of interest, Russian forces took the high ground east of Hulyaipole in about a week of fighting, but whether that means the Ukrainian force was overwhelmed or the Ukrainian forces withdrew to better ground is not known.

North of Hulyaipole Russian forces also were confirmed to have pushed the line west; the front line now runs from the east edge of Hulyaipole north-west to a point just east of Zelene and northward, just east of the T0401 roadway, to the vicinity of Nove Zaporizhzhia, on the Haichur River. Hulyaipole logistics support is now reduced to trucks moving into the city on the T0814 roadway from the west.

Fighting was reported south and south-east of Orikhiv, and further west of Orikhiv near Stepanohirsk, but there was no confirmed change to the front lines. 

Fighting was again reported near the Antonvoskiy bridge, up river for Kherson city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of December 1st-December 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 39 drones. 

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

There are no casualties reports yet.

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 2 towns.

During the night of November 30-December 1st, Russian forces launched at least 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or otherwise defeated with EW, 63 drones. 

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts. Targets included the power grid; there were power blackouts in Kyiv, and a partial blackout in Odessa.

At least 4 civilians were killed and 40 civilians were wounded in last night’s strikes. 

RuAF tacair conducted strikes on 10 towns.

Ukrainian naval drones struck the Russian flagged tanker MidVolga-2 about 75 miles off the northern Turkish coast as the ship carried sunflower oil to Georgia. The 13 man crew was reported to be unharmed.

The ship was proceeding under own power to Sinop, Turkey.

This is the third Russian tanker to be struck.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Nov7 Dec1 Dec2

Brent      94.71    66.90 67.03 66.18 63.86 63.38 62.23

WTI     92.10    64.29 63.26 62.48 59.94 59.54 58.44

NG       3.97         3.06 3.12 3.44 4.33 4.82 4.91

Wheat     8.52          5.18 5.22 5.06 5.32 5.36 5.33

Ruble     85          79.74 84.03 81.28 80.95 77.72 77.18

Hryvnia 28.6 41.39 41.23 41.48 41.89 42.33 42.32

Urals 91.66 63.17 60.12 61.15 56.56 54.42 54.22

ESPO 94.52 68.63 68.32 66.74 65.18 56.88 56.88

Sokol 99.31 62.57 62.97 61.91 60.71 60.43 60.05

Thoughts

Russian forces can be expected to clear Pokrovsk in the next few weeks, Myrnohrad will take longer. But there is little reason to expect some sort of change in the trend line; Pokrovsk will be cleared, Myrnohrad will fall.

Further north, the development north of Kostiantinivka, is worrying. Given the disposition of forces over the past several weeks, the report on Maiske (North-west of Chasiv Yar, north-east of Kostiantinivka) is credible, but the claim that Russian forces have taken Klynove (5 miles north-north-west of Kostiantinivka) would be unusual and would require that a Russian element had pushed past the front line and penetrated at least 5 miles past the Ukraine forward line of troops. If so, it would suggest Kostiantinivka could be at greater risk than all earlier estimates.

This rapid, fairly deep, penetration is what happened in August that resulted in the Salient that pushed some 12 miles into Ukrainian controlled terrain, and was the result of holes in the line due to insufficient numbers of Ukrainian infantry on the line. If this has happened again, given the level of importance of Kostiantinivka, this would suggest the manpower “crunch” is getting worse. If this has happened, I would expect Ukrainian forces will move rapidly to cut off this Russian element and reclaim control of Klynove. But it raises the obvious question: where would they find those troops, and what section of the line would be stripped?

v/r pete