April 7th, 2025

Diplomacy - No Progress

Combat Ops - Casualties climb from missile strike on Kryvyi Rih

- Russian and Ukrainian gains on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

40 and cloudy, gusting to 20.  ear. Mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows at or below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

41 and light rain.  and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy all week, rain showers Wednesday through Saturday, snow possible on Friday. Daily lows  at or below freezing all week, daily high low to mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

30 and cloudy, windchill 20, gusting over 20. Snow showers possible tonight. Mostly cloudy through the week, snow on Thursday. Daily lows this week in the high 20s to low 30s, highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, windchills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

There seemed to be no movement at all over the weekend

Russian Special Envoy Dmitriev met with US Special Envoy Witkoff Last week and reported that they had “good discussions, but there is nothing specific.

Meanwhile, Secretary of the Treasury Bessent commented in an interview with Tucker Carlson that President Zelenskyy “lied to our faces three times” about the proposed rare earths deal.

Hopefully this week will see better news.

Ground Operations 

KURSK SALIENT

Fighting is now concentrated in a small pocket west and south of Guevo, with Ukrainian forces pushed up against the border around the small farming village of Gomal. To the north-west about 6 miles Russian forces have pushed through Basivka, but do not yet threaten the flank of the Ukrainian forces inside Russia.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

The said, other reports, to include pro-Ukrainian reports, suggest that the Russians have rolled over most of the Ukrainian positions and are in the process of clearing Ukrainian positions in and near Demidovka, and immediately west in the small town of Popovka.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

There was no change in the front line over the past three days.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces had confirmed gains along the Oskil River north-east of Kupyanske; north of Kupyanske Russian forces occupy some terrain on the west side of the Oskil river for all but a few miles. Russian forces continue to press south-west into Kindrashivka, while Ukrainian forces just to the east are pressing northward towards Lyman Pershyi.

Fighting is taking place in multiple sites east of Borova; Ukrainian forces have made some small gains in terrain south-east of Kopanky; the fighting in this area is anecdotally said to be very heavy and casualties are reportedly high on both sides. One blogger suggests that the Ukrainian advance is a result of a slow, deliberate withdrawal by the Russians to draw the Ukrainian forces into a “cauldron,” but that isn’t clear right now. 

Meanwhile, Russian forces further south having been pushing north-west and appear to have taken the town of Katerynivka. 

BAKHMUT

Russian forces remained on the attack north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. However, some reporting suggests the Ukrainian General Staff is flowing forces into this area and that they will begin a counter-attack in the Chasiv Yar area in the next few days to week.

Further south, Russian forces have made some small gains along the northern edge of Toretsk, Reporting points to this fight settling into the same pounding that has reduced other towns to masses of rubble. Small Russian gains were also noted in the small towns immediately north, west and south-west of Toretsk (the picture below is a Ukrainian Army drone snap of Toretsk from several months ago).

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along most of the Pokrovsk perimeter. Russian forces have gained to the south-west and west of Pokrovsk, and appear to control much of Udachne (about 8 miles west-south-west of Pokrovsk) and have once again pushed across the T-0406 roadway just east of that town. Russian forces also had small gains in 4 other towns in the general area of Pokrovsk, to include regaining control over Solone. Fighting was reported in 13 other towns along the edge of the perimeter. Said differently, the Russian attrition “grind” continues. 

Just south of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces continue to attack westward, but specific reporting is conflicting, with some reports suggesting Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in another "knife fight in a phone booth” inside Kostyantynopil and other reports suggesting the Russians have pushed through and the front line is now west of the town. My best guess is that there is a relatively small Ukrainian force that is well dug in, inside Kostyantynopil and they are holding on. Russian forces in the area consists of 2 brigades and one independent regiment; one blogger who tracks the various units on both sides reports an Ukrainian infantry brigade, or a brigade minus (just 2 battalions) in this area, but accuracy is unknown.

Just north and south of this town Russian forces continue to make gains pushing westward, and have clearly taken Rozlyv and are pushing on Oleksiivka and Troitske.

North-west of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces continue to attack to the north-west, but the line from just south-east of Vilne Pole to Vesele appears unchanged over the last three days, though there are claims of some Russian gains near Burlatske.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian forces on the western end of the line continue to attack north, with fighting reported along most of the line from Kamyanske through Lokove, Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Shcherbaky to Novoandriivka. The Russian forces appear to have pushed across the T0812  just east of Shcherbaky, but that doesn’t really affect the flow of supplies to other positions along the line of contact. Nevertheless, this Russian attack is gaining ground and needs to be watched.

Air Operations 

During the night of the 6th and into the morning of the 7th Russian tacair strikes were reported on 20 different towns, but there were no comprehensive numbers available yet.

During the night of April 5th Russian forces launched 6 x Iskander ballistic missile, 9 x KJ-101/55SM cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 109 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 1 Iskander ballistic  missile, 12 cruise missiles, and 40 drones; 53 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Khmelnytsky, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts; 5 Iskander ballistic missiles struck in Kyiv oblast.

A missile (type unknown) struck a residential complex in Kryvyi Rih and killed at least 19 and wounded 75 - all civilians. The Russians claimed they had targeted a meeting of a Ukrainian unit and Western liaisons and instructors. Footage released so far appears to show only civilians. 

During the night of April 4th Russian forces launched 92 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 51 drones, and 31 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Sumy and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Russian force totals for the week of March 31st through April 6th included 1,460 x FAB glide bombs, 670 x Shahed drones, and 30+ cruise and ballistic missiles.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr4 Apr7

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 65.56 64.04

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 62.04 60.40

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.90 3.89

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.27 5.34

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 85.05 86.03

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.11

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 UNK UNK

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 64.04 70

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 66.21 60.38

Thoughts 

MODUK commented on the Russian ground campaign this past week and noted that, since last November, the Russian army’s rate of advance has slowed significantly, with areas seized falling from November’s 730 SqKm to 143 SqKm in March (in succession, square kilometers): 730 - 393 - 326 - 195 - 143).

Of course, a good deal of effort during that period was spent recovering land inside Russia - the Kursk salient. 

But, it misses the main thrust of attrition warfare: Russia wishes to seize land, but the means to do so is predicated on destroying the Ukrainian army. Attrition is first about killing the other side, then seizing their land. Russia is intent on killing Ukrainian soldiers and destroying the Ukrainian army, and then moving into land as the army falls apart. The prime, brutal, goal on any given day is to kill enemy soldiers, and only secondarily take their land. Taking a look at the various towns they have seized over the past two years, see the above picture, suggests that if Russia wants land, they want it clear of any living soul.

v/r pete 

 Melos and Ukraine Apr 6 2025

Melos is a small island in the Aegean Sea, about 61 square miles in size (so a tiny bit bigger than San Clemente Island, or 6 square miles bigger than Hilton Head island). It is famous for one thing: getting destroyed. In 416 BC, during the Peloponnesian War, the Athenians came to Melos and made them an offer, join the Athenian alliance (the Delian League) or be wiped out. This led to the famous Melian dialogue, in which Melians argued that this is wrong, and the Athenians responded, basically, “too bad.” Thucydides reduced it to one memorable line: "the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.”

Melos refused. Athens laid siege and captured Melos, slaughtered all the men, and sold the women and children into slavery. Later, when Sparta won the war, they recovered some of the surviving Melian’s and returned them to Melos, where they lived as a vassal state to Sparta under a military governor - that is, they did not get back their freedom; they gambled and lost.

Now consider Ukraine. First, begin with this, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is flat wrong, and it is sickening that innocent people are getting killed every day. But here’s the problem: Ukraine is losing, and losing badly. This isn’t really debatable. The Ukrainian government admits to some 43,000 dead, but sources inside the government suggested in December that the number was a bit over 70,000. At the same time they admitted to having 56,000 missing (a number they had admitted to at the end of summer). Then, in an unguarded aside, one of the ministers noted that most of the missing were in fact known to be dead. That puts the number of dead at over 120,000 as of 4 months ago. And it is accepted by virtually everyone that the numbers have been massaged down.

Russian killed in action is somewhere in that same range (serious estimates run between 95,000 and 140,000, more than 10,000 of which were penal colony troops). Add on about 350,000 wounded to both sides, perhaps more, and you are approaching 1 million total combat casualties.

Said differently Ukraine has essentially the same number of casualties as Russia (though there is serious speculation that Ukraine’s KIA count and overall casualty count is considerable higher).

And no one has a plan to win the war.

But Ukraine’s problems are actually greater. Ukraine’s population in 1991 was 52.4 million. By 2022 the population was 43 million officially, but probably several million less, the others having moved to Europe; the world bank listed the population as 38 million in 2022. Since the war’s start at least 6 million have left the country, at last two million now live in Russian occupied territory, and unofficial estimates place the current population at 33 million or less; Russia’s population is 147 million. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a fertility rate of 1.2, in the bottom 5% world wide (Russia’s rate is 1.52). Put all these numbers together and the result is that Ukraine is dying. At this rate, Ukraine in 50 years will have less than 10 million people. Add on top of this infrastructure damage that exceeds $600 billion, roughly 4 times the country’s pre war GDP.

Both Melos and Ukraine made strategic errors; Melos in refusing to join the Delian League, Ukraine in giving up their nuclear weapons. 

The objection is that if Melos had joined the Athenian alliance the same thing would have happened to them in the end; perhaps, except Sparta didn’t slaughter the citizens of the Delian league, or sell them into slavery.

Thing is, strategic errors have grave consequences. The Melians found that out, but too late, and for all intent and purposes, ceased to exist. Ukraine has found that out as well, but arguably still has time to salvage some sort of survival. But to do so will require hard decisions.

Ukraine needs to end this war, even on terms that leave 20% in Russian hands, or the destruction of the country is going to continue, and possibly accelerate. They might hold out and insist they will keep fighting until the Russian army breaks and the Russians quit. Perhaps that will happen.

But what happens if the Ukrainian army breaks first? Or there is a global recession and the US and the EU find it difficult to continue to aid Ukraine at the appropriate level? Or political turmoil in the EU reduces support to Ukraine? 

In fact, there are a host of ways the war could unfold if it continues, and few of them would seem to point to Ukraine’s victory.

The most favorable outcome right now appears to be a Korea-like ceasefire and DMZ. And like Korea, they can choose to have a ceasefire now, or wait a year or two, add two more years of casualties to the current numbers, and then have a ceasefire.

Or they can let the war drag on and, like the Melians, Ukraine may well end up only a memory in the history books. 

Like the Melians it may not matter, and Ukraine cannot dig itself out of its demographic hole. If so, in 20 or 30 years Ukraine will be gone even if they chose the Korean solution. But right now it’s a near certainty.

 April 4th, 2025 Next Summary April 7th

Politics - Witkoff - Dmitriev meet, nothing to report

- Rubio comments: We will know soon if Russia wants peace 

Combat Ops - Russia makes ams gains

- New attacks in south?

Weather

Kharkiv

61 and clear. Partly cloudy Saturday, rain on Sunday, partly to mostly cloudy next week. In the 50s through the weekend, then daily highs in the upper 30s, daily lows near freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

60 and partly cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain on Sunday. Temperatures in the 50s Saturday and Sunday, then next week daily lows in the 30s  and daily highs in the 40s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

65 and partly cloudy gusting over 20. Rain tomorrow through Sunday night, snow flurries possible on Sunday. Cloudy all week, snow showers on Thursday. Tomorrow in the 40s, next week will see daily highs in the mid 30s, and daily lows below freezing. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian Special Envoy (Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund) Kirill Dmitriev met with US Special Envoy Witkoff yesterday to, in his words, “resume dialogue,” and they discussed returning US and Russian relations to a more normal status. But there were no specifics.

SecState Rubio commented on what is expected of Russia:

”Here's what the president wanted to do. He wants to end this war. He wanted to test this very early in his administration: Is it possible to end this war on terms that are acceptable to both sides? Because you can't end the war unless both sides agree. And that's what we're in the process of finding out. We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not.”

"If you're interested in peace, you stop fighting. And you lay out the conditions by which you're willing to end the war, and these have to be reasonable conditions, right? Not crazy stuff. If you're interested in peace, that's what you do. If you’re not interested in peace, then you sort of drag it out, come up with excuses.”

"If all of a sudden, we wake up tomorrow and the Russians are launching a massive offensive, I think that's a pretty clear sign that they're not interested in peace… That hasn’t happened yet, let’s hope it doesn’t happen. We want to know whether they want a peace or not. And if they do, then there’s a way there and we’re willing to help. If they’re not then it’s good to know early, so we can adjust our policies accordingly.”

Per a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Russia is "counting on US President Donald Trump to deliver an acceptable peace deal in Ukraine… appears resolved and prepared to pay a very high price to prevail in what he sees as a defining time in Russia’s strategic competition with the United States, world history, and his personal legacy,” and the ODNI assessment is that he will continue the war unless he achieves his stated goals through negotiations.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces had confirmed gains into the town of Guyevo from the north. Guyevo is a bit more than a mile west of Plekhovo, and marks the north-east corner of the last pocket of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk Oblast. Russian bloggers made claims of Russian gains near the border and just inside Sumy Oblast, in the vicinity of Basivka, but these claims weren't confirmed.

South of Guyevo there is a broad arc of dense forest and Ukrainian forces are probably backing into these to slow the Russian advance. There are also several small rivers that cross the terrain between Guyevo and the border, which will serve as decent defensive positions as the Ukrainians withdraw. There are dirt roads on the edges of the large fields, but these will be of little value until the ground gets harder.

Near Belgorod, fighting continued west of Demidovka, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. The Ukrainian forces control two small pockets, neither more than perhaps 2,000 meters across, and a long, thin line along the border.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continued in and around Vovchansk but her were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

While fighting was reported along  most of the line of contact, there were no confirmed changes in the north and center of the line. 

Further south, west of Terny, Russian forces continue to slowly expand their salient west of the Zherebets, particularly pushing the north edge of the salient further north. This push near Novoliubivka essentially forms a small salient between that town and Russian forces operating north-west of Makiivka. Once again, the Russians have developed a potentially small pocket, not quite 4 x 4 miles in size, and again will press the Ukrainian commander with the option of holding on and taking casualties from artillery fire, or withdrawing to the west.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

West of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, Russian sources claimed Russian forces made small gains in the center of Chasiv Yar, but some fighting continues in the town center.

Further south, in Toretsk, there were claims of Russian gains in the center and south side of the town but these were not confirmed.

DONETSK CITY

Just north of the Pokrovsk salient, fighting continues in the Panteleimonvika area but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Just south of that town Russian forces pushed westward from the area of the small town of Oleksandropil, essentially another example of the Russians pushing into to unoccupied or lightly defended terrain and in doing so straighten and shorten their lines.

Ukrainian forces south-west of Pokrovsk made gains in both Novoyelyzavetivka and Nadiivka (side-by-side, about 11 miles south-west of Pokrovsk).

  Russian sources claim Russian forces have seized Bohdanivka (about 15 miles south-west of Pokrovsk). Overall Russian forces continue to probe and strike with artillery and drones, and there were reports of Russian actions in 17 other towns along the edge of the salient.

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces on the east edge of Oleksiivka, continue to press westward, along the T-0428 roadway, following the road and the Vovcha River, but it isn't clear that they gained any ground yesterday.

Just to the south, Kostyanynopil remains divided, but Russian forces appear to have taken Rozlyv, and have begun an attack on Bahatyr from the south.

Further south, north-east of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces have pressed north-west, down the Mokri Yaly River, and have pushed into Vesele. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian forces have in fact, pushed through that town and reached Fedorivka and a bit further south have pushed past Burlatske. If these two movements are correct, Russian forces now sit astride the last east-west Ukrainian defensive line across southern Ukraine. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian reports claimed Russian gains near Kamyanske, and that there are Russian attacks taking place from Kamyanske to Stepove to Mali Shcherbaky to Shcherbaky, a span of 10 miles. Current Ukrainian maps show 4 Russian regiments and 1 Spetsnaz brigade along this section of the line. It’s not clear what Ukrainian forces are located in this area.

Air Operations

During the night of April 3rd Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 42 drones, and 22 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

During the night of April 2nd Russian forces launched 39 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 7 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. 

During the night of April 1st and int0 the day on the 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 1 ballistic missile and 74 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, and 20 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts. A ballistic missile struck  Kryvyi Rih, killing 14 and wounding 50.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr2 Apr4

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 74.56 65.56

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 71.40 62.04

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.06 3.90

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.36 5.27

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.25 85.05

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.35 41.18

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 57.00 UNK

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 76.06 64, 06

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 71.08 66.21

Brent fell briefly to 64.39 per barrel, and WTI to 61.86; the lowest price for either since April 2021.

Thoughts 

Tough talk from SecState Rubio and a negative assessment from the ODNI. 

But, in fact, this was always going to distill down to dealing between Trump and Putin. Some members of Trump’s staff reportedly don’t want him to talk to Putin, but I would submit the only two people who really can end this thing are Trump and Putin, and really, Trump. No one else seems at all interested in actually trying to negotiate an end.

Meanwhile, the Russian ground war continues. Of note, the attack on the west end of the line, near Kamyanske, seems like a marginal effort if the report of 5 regiments or brigades on a 10 mile front. But there was a report from Russian bloggers from several days ago - otherwise unverified - that the Russians had moved tens of thousands of troops into that area in the last two weeks. Surely this would be detected by intelligence systems. In any case, this will bear watching. If there are large scale Russian reserves in that area the Ukrainians would have a serious problem in their hands. 

v/r pete