April 1st, 2025

Politics - No movement in negotiations

- No preps for elections

Combat Operations - No air strikes for first night this year

- Some Russian gains at several points

Weather

Kharkiv

51 and cloudy. Cloudy Wednesday and Thursday, sunny on Friday, then more clouds. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and clear. Rain Wednesday and Thursday, then mostly cloudy. showers and clouds rest of the week. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the low 60s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

46 and rain, gusting over 25. Rain showers tonight through Wednesday, Thursday afternoon and Friday will be sunny, more clouds and rain on the weekend. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts, except Wednesday - winds near 20kts, from the north-east.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Trump is not pleased with either President Zelenskyy or President Putin, and feels that both sides are making statements that are making it that much harder to reach an agreement, and commented that he has set a “psychological deadline” for Putin to agree to a ceasefire.

When asked about more sanctions, Trump commented that:

"I want to see him [Putin] make a deal, so that we stop Russian soldiers and Ukrainian soldiers and other people from being killed. I don't want to go secondary tariffs on his oil. But I think, you know, it's something I would do if I thought he [Putin] wasn't doing the job.”

He also expressed more frustration over the Rare earths issue, commenting that Zelenskyy:

"is trying to renegotiate the rare earth agreement.”

A senior MP of the Verkhovna Rada, Davyd Arakhamia, commented on rumors that there were preparations underway for an election this summer:

"No elections are being prepared, no preparations are being made. Parliamentary parties and groups have agreed that the elections should be held six months after the end of martial law. Our position has not changed.”

Finland announced it will leave the Ottawa Convention on Land Mines, which bans the use of anti-personnel land mines. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland all left the convention last month.

Finland has the longest border with Russia of any NATO country (about 800 miles).

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continue to grind down Ukrainian forces remaining in the pocket south-west of Plekhovo. At the same time, Russian forces inside Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast continue to slowly expand their foothold, and yesterday seized Veselivka, along the border west of the salient.

North-west of Belgorod Russian forces remain on the attack; there were no confirmed changes in the front lines, reporting suggests that Russian forces continue to press in and grind down the Ukrainian positions.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continues in the Vovchansk area but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

Russian forces north of Kupyansk had confirmed gains west and north-west of Dvorichna, as well as pushing south from Zapadne; Russian forces south of Zapadne appear to have reached the last tree line outside of Kindrishivka, and are now perhaps 400 yards north-east of the town; Kindrishivka is about 2 miles north of Kupyansk.

There were no gains by either side east of Borova.

In the general area west of Terny, Russian forces were confirmed to have reached the eastern edge of Katerynivka (6-7 miles northwest of Terny), as noted yesterday. Also of note, there are a string of hardened bunkers and trenches that run north-west — south-east from the Katerynivka area towards Terny. The Russians, if they are able to press into that town, will flank them and make them irrelevant.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and east of Siversk and in and round Chasiv Yar. The fight for the last small section of central Chasiv Yar continues, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. 

Further south, Ukrainian forces had confirmed small gains in central Torestsk. Russian attacks continue in and around Toretsk.

 There is reporting that indicates that Russian forces have taken the town ofPanteleymonivka (population about 7,000), located about 8 miles south-west of Toretsk, and about 8 miles due north of Avdiivka.. The town is located near the southern corner of a large salient in the Russian line, a rectangle standing on a corner, with one corner at Chasiv Yar, and another at Vodyane Druhe, an area roughly 25 miles across the top and 10-12 miles deep. Taking this town helps the Russians start to “fill in” the box and straighten their lines.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along virtually all of the Pokrovsk salient perimeter. While there were no confirmed gains of terrain (due to cloud cover), Russian forces and Russian bloggers report that Russian forces have seized Novooleksandrivka (south-west of Pokrovsk) and advanced near Nadiivka and Kotlyarivka.

Elsewhere, Russian forces were reported attacking near Pokrovsk, and both north-east and east of Pokrovsk, and fighting was reported in 22 other towns on the Pokrovsk salient perimeters, as the Russians simply continue to grind slowly forward.

South of the Pokrovsk salient Russian forces continue to press westward, with gains confirmed in the Bohdanivka area, as well as confirmed gains that place Russian forces on the eastern edge of Oleksandrivka. Other Russian forces driving up from the south, have reached Bohatyr, and just to the east it appears that Russian forces have overrun most, and possibly all, of Kostyantynopil.

Further south, imagery shows Russian forces operating north-west of Velyka Novosilke have entered central Novosilke, and are attacking on the Dniproenerhiya - Vesele - Burlatske line, putting them just south-east of the Ukrainian defensive line that runs east-west across southern Ukraine. Pressing north-west, if successful, would place the Russians north of that defensive line, in effect, turning the flank.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian operations continue west of Orikhiv but there was no confirmed changes in the front line.

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces “conducted offensive operations” in Sadove, a small town east-north-east of Kherson about 8 miles, on the west side of the Dnepr river, where the Inhulets river flows in the Dnepr.  What precisely these operations consist of is still not clear.

Air Operations

Over the course of the night of March 31st - April 1st Russian forces did not conduct any missile or suicide drone strikes; the first night - per the UAF - of 2025 that there was no missile or Shahed drone strike.

During the night of March 30th, Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander Ballistic missiles and 131 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and 45 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

The Ukrainian MOD reported that Russian air activity during March included:

4,800 GBU / tacair strikes, up from 3,370 in February and 2,407 in January. 

Total number of GBUs dropped in 2024 was approximately 40,000 (a 3,330 per month average) 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Mar31 Apr1

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 74.55 74.44

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 70.71 71.18

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.16 3.95

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.28 5.40

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.76 84.66

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.40 41.35

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 65.49 65.49

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 76.05 75.94

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 70.42 71.33

Thoughts 

President Trump continues to press for a ceasefire, though it does seem that no one else wants one - not the leadership of virtually any other capital city in Europe. It would seem that, just as the suspensions of all support was needed to gain Kiev’s attention, Trump will need to do something glaring to gain Moscow’s attention.

An interesting - and sobering - report I saw today said that at the start of the war Ukraine had 300,000 opiate addicts, but that that number may be as high as 1 million today. Consider that another reason Ukraine has for considering a ceasefire in the near term. 1 million addicts would constitute 3% of the current population.

It is also worth commenting that the casualty reports from Kyiv - on Russian casualties - continues to grow, in what can only be called a “fantastic” manner, as in “fantasy.”

Every quarter for the last 5 Russian casualties as reported have grown and the Ukrainian army might well be described - per the propaganda - as slaughtering the Russians at every turn.

At the same time, the Ukrainians are losing, which presumably is a large part of the motivation for this particular propaganda spin. But it does raise an interesting question as to what will be the Ukrainian population’s response when there is a ceasefire and more accurate numbers surface?

v/r pete