April 11th, 2025     Next Summary April 14th

Diplomacy - Trump threatens Russia with more sanctions

- Ambassador Brink resigning

- Ukrainian delegation in Washington, US and Russian delegation in  Istanbul

Combat Ops - Russian gains  near Sumy

- Russian giant in and near Toretsk

- Russian air campaign ordnance count

Weather

Kharkiv

45 and cloudy, showers tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy next week. Gradual warming, daily lows in the 30s this weekend became mid 40s by the end of the week, daily highs in the 50s will be approaching 70 by the end of next week. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

43 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, clearing by Tuesday. Gradual warming, daily lows in 30s through the weekend, in the 40s next week, highs in 50s become highs in the 60s by end of next week. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

40 and mostly cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows through Sunday in the high 20s to low 30s, next week in the 40s; daily highs will be in the 50s through Tuesday, then warmer. Winds variable, 5-10kts through the weekend then 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Axios is reporting that President Trump will place more sanctions against Russia on May 1st if there is no ceasefire before then.

Trump’s special envoy Witkoff arrived in Moscow yesterday, was scheduled to meet President Putin today in St. Petersburg, and did in fact meet with Putin. There are no specifics from the meeting yet.

Meanwhile this morning, on social platform “Truth Social” Trump commented:

“Russia has to get moving.Too many people ere [sic] DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war – A war that should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened, if I were President!!!”

The Ukrainian delegation for discussion on the Rare Earths agreement arrived in Washington today for several days of discussion concerning the agreement.

US and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on the 10th; the meeting focused on diplomatic relations and standards for operating embassies in each country, movement of personnel into and out of the other country, return of confiscated items, etc.

US Ambassador Bridgette Brink, has submitted her resignation after 3 years as ambassador to Ukraine.

US State Department spokesman Bruce commented that "Ambassador Brink is stepping down. She's been the ambassador there for three years – that's a long time in a war zone.”

The Financial Times commented that: "Western diplomats in Kyiv said Brink had been a crucial advocate for Kyiv in public and private since the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. One described her as a 'strong character' and 'serious diplomat', but the pressure from Trump’s and Zelenskyy’s offices had taken a toll.”

The Financial Times also noted that Ukrainian officials saw Brink as “overly critical” of Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts, and that those officials had noted that her comments had become increasingly aligned with the Trump administration and increasingly critical of the Ukraine government.

The US is withdrawing troops and assets from Jasionka, the logistics facility in south-east Poland that has been the central node for moving assets into Ukraine, as Polish troops take over the operations, supported by Norwegian, German and British troops. US elements will return to their units at other bases in Poland.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT & SUMY OBLAST

Ukrainian forces have been reduced to a thin slice of terrain inside Russia; exact boundaries are hard to define, but Ukrainian controlled terrain along the border just west of Gornal is perhaps less than 1 nile wide (roughly east to west) and several miles long. This is also true north-west of Belgorod; the Ukrainian lodgment has been reduced to several thin slices of terrain. Russian forces in the area are counted in the tens of thousands while the Ukrainian force is less than 1 brigade in size in each area; Russian forces seem intent on simply grinding down the Ukrainian elements both here and north-west of Belgorod.

Just north-west of Sumy, Russian forces continue to push to the south-west and it now appears that Russian forces have indeed pushed thorough Basivka and reached Loknya, while also seizing the town of Zhukara, north-west from Basivka, along the border.

Be that is it may, the terrain north-east of Sumy consists of several miles of open farmland just inside the border, and then a band of dense forestry that would be very difficult to fight through. Russia will need to plus up manpower in the region significantly if they wish to fight through that woodland.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continued near Hlyboke and Vovchansk but there were no changes noted in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

North of Kupyansk - essentially west of the Oskil River, Russian forces continue to probe and conduct artillery strikes.

The reports on numbers of probes and strikes east of Borova suggests fairly heavy fighting and there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have retaken Nadiya, a small town about 2 miles east of Kopanky (which is already held by the Russians).

Further south, Russian forces continue to probe west and north-west from the Katerynivka area but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces. 

BAKHMUT

North and north-east of Bakhmut there were no changes in the front lines.

In Chasiv Yar both sides made small gains in the west end of the town. Recall that these are squad level actions among neighborhoods of building that have on the whole been pounded into rubble.

In Toretsk, Russian forces made gains in central Toretsk, as well as north of the town. Of note, a video was released of a Russian element of several IFVs, stopped and their personnel dismounted, north-west of Torestsk, along the T0516 roadway, about 2.5 to 3 miles beyond the Russian lines, in the middle of the village of Nelipivka. In all likelihood this is an aberration, a recon patrol that got lost but for some reason wasn’t shot up, and managed to get back to their lines. There is always the possibility that the Ukrainian defensive line has a hole in that area, for whatever reason, and these two IFVs poked through, but there is no evidence to support that right now.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues along essentially all of  the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient. Russian forces had confirmed gains immediately south of Pokrovsk in the town of Lysivka, and there were additional claims of Russian gains in the town of Kalynove, about 15 miles east of Pokrovsk, sitting at the south-east corner of the would-be salient in the Russian line between Chasiv Yar and the Pokrovsk salient. This attack, along with other recent activity in Panteleimonivka area consistent with the Russian SOP of closing up would-be pockets and regularly straightening their lines.

Russian forces also claimed gains to the south-west of Pokrovsk in the towns of Nadiivka and Kootlyarivka. Additional reporting showed fighting taking place in at least 15 other towns along the perimeter of the salient.

Immediately south of the salient there were no confirmed gains, but blogger reports suggest Russian gains near of Bahatyr and west of Rozlyv. But Kostiantinopil remains split between Russian and Ukrainian forces. The town had a population of about 1,100 in 2022 and was a small farming town with mostly 1 and 2 story houses; it is now mostly rubble and splinters.

Russian forces north-west of Velyka Novosilke continue to push to the north-west; there were no confirmed changes on the front line, but bloggers report Russian gains near Fedorivka and Shevchenko.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the west end of the line - west of Orikhiv - and unconfirmed reporting suggests further Russian gains near Mali Shcherbaky and Shcherbaky, but these can’t be confirmed.

Air Operations

During the night of April 10th Russian force launched at least ballistic missile at Dnipro, killing at least 1 civilian.

During the night of April 10th Ukrainian forces launched at least 78 drones and 23 HIMARS rockets into Russian airspace. There was no comment on the number shot down or any hard data on what targets were hit.

The UAF reports that during the course of the war they have shot down 97 x Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles; 40 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles; 100 x Iskander-K cruise missiles, 2,400 x Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles. The report noted the US Patriot missile system is the only system capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. 

Other ordnance used by the Russian forces includes: 465 x air-to-surface missiles, 17,575 x Shahed drones, 22,400 x loitering munitions, and 67,000 x FAB guided bombs (the Russian equivalent of JDAM).

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr10 Apr11

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 62.89 63.99

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.74 60.72

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.50

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.38 5.55

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 84.00 83.22

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.43 41.36

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 47.54 47.54

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 53.19 53.19

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 61.67 60.91

No changes reported in price changes for Urals oil or ESPO oil.

 

Thoughts 

Some thoughts on the ordnance count for Russian forces: comparing the Russian weapon usage over a 3 year period to the first 30 days (March 19 - April 18 2003) of US air campaign in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF - the last large scale, sustained air campaign), gives a glimpse as to the intensity of the the US effort; the numbers suggest that the lack of intensity on the part of the Russians may have a great deal to do with their difficulties. In fact the Russian Air Force used 32,812 FAB (JDAM equivalent) weapons in all of 2024 - their most “smart weapon intensive” year of the 3 years of war. The US used more than 8,000 JDAM in the first 30 days of OIF, and then JDAM settled into being the weapon of choice in the day to day use of air power.

During the first 30 days of OIF the US used some 800 TLAM (Tomahawk cruise missiles) compared to Russia using 2,500 cruise missiles over a 3 year period; the US used 450 ATACMS (ballistic missiles); we flew 20,700 strike sorties and dropped 29,000 weapons, 68% smart ordnance, JDAM being 52% of the total.

It is worth noting that at this weapon use rate US commanders were not completely satisfied that we had established air control over all of Iraq at the end of 30 days.

 Presumably there is a study going on somewhere to establish some sort of understanding of the “knuckle in the curve,” that is, at what rate does the use of smart weapons push around the bend in the curve and start adding up to the establishment of air control. Hopefully, that usage rate “synergy” is understood as we try to restock our ammo stockpiles.

v/r pete