April 9th, 2025

Diplomacy - Russian and US delegations to meet in Istanbul 

- Ukrainian PM discusses Rare Earths agreement 

- 155 Chinese fighting with Russians 

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Sumy, Belgorod

- Russian gains, southern Ukraine, near Velyka Novosilke

Weather

Kharkiv

39 and partly cloudy. Mostly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows at or near freezing, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

37 and light rain. Mostly cloudy through the weekend, rain Friday and Saturday. Daily lows at or below freezing through the weekend, daily high low to mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

37 and mostly cloudy, windchill 29, gusting to 25. Partly to mostly cloudy for the next week, snow tomorrow. Daily lows through Sunday in the high 20s, highs will be in the mid to upper 30s, windchills in the low 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian and US delegations will meet in Istanbul on April 10th, with a focus on returning US and Russian diplomatic contact to a more normal status. Officially, discussions on Ukraine are not on the agenda.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal commented on Ukrainian Red Lines for the possible rare earths agreement with the US.

"We really have some red lines. First of all, this is our Constitution. Second, this is our European aspirations and our European obligations… International legislation. We also understand that it should be a partnership agreement – on equal conditions for both sides."

"We will send our delegation together with our lawyer to the US at the end of this week. And I think that technical negotiations will go through this weekend and next week, then we will see the results… We are quite optimistic."

President Zelenskyy reported yesterday that there are at least 155 PRC soldiers fighting for Russia.

"The 'Chinese' issue is serious. There are 155 people with surnames and passport data – 155 Chinese citizens fighting against Ukrainians on Ukrainian soil. We are gathering information and believe that there are many more. We have passport data for these 155 [soldiers], their origins, their Chinese documents, ages, etc. Also, their places of service: the 70th, 71st, 255th motorized rifle regiments and so on."

"Official Beijing knows about this. The Russians are spreading recruitment ads through Chinese social networks. This is not secret recruitment – that’s important. There may also be secret recruitment.”

"They are fighting on the territory of Ukraine. They receive migration cards, as well as [Russian] Mir payment system cards, on which they receive money."

One of the captured Chinese soldiers said that he was recruited inside China, paid 200,000 rubles ($3500 -  per capita income in PRC is about $12,500). He claims his motivation was to become a Russian citizen. He received basic training after he arrived in the war zone. 

Norway announced a 4 billion Krona ($368 million) grant to purchase ammunition for Ukraine through the Czech ammunition scheme.

Belgium announced a 1 billion Euro ($1.09 billion) grant as well as delivery of 2 x F-16s for use for spare parts.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces continue to squeeze the remains Ukrainian lodgments, one in the small village of Gomel, another in the village of Oleshnya, but Ukrainian forces are holding on. Russian sources also claim that Russian forces across the border near Basivka picked up more ground, but this has not been confirmed.

Further south, north-west of Belgorod, Russian forces continue to slowly move forward but fighting continues in Demidovka and in Popovka, with Ukrainian forces continuing to hold ground.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continued in Vovchansk but there were n changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were multiple reports of Russian gains north of Kupyansk and east of Borova, but none of the reports were confirmed.

West of Terny imagery confirmed Russian control of Katerynivka.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continued north and north-east of Bakhmut, with claims of Russian gains of high ground east of Siversk, but this has not been confirmed.

West of Bakhmut, there are reports from Russian sources that Russian forces have reached Dniprovskyy lake, which forms the west edge of town center. If so, it would mean Russian forces had finally pushed through the last two blocks held by Ukrainian forces in the center of town. Fighting continues south of the town.

Further south, in and around Toretsk, Russian forces had confirmed gains north and north-west of Toretsk, pushing out in the direction of Kostyantynivka about 1 kilometer beyond the western edge of the town.

DONETSK CITY

Fighting continues to swirl around the edges of the Pokrovsk salient. Ukrainian force had gains in Kotlyne (south-west of Pokrovsk), while Russian forces had gains near Shevchenko (immediately south of Pokrovsk). Elsewhere fighting continued along virtually the entire perimeter of the salient but there were no other changes in the front line. 

South of the Pokrovsk salient Russian and Ukrainian forces remained engaged in Kostyantynopil, and the Ukrainian forces continue to hold onto the western edge of the town, even as it appears the Russian forces now control Rozlyv and are pressing on Oleksivka, both well to the west of Kostyantynopil. Russian forces have pressed westward of Rozlyv and Russian tacair conducted air strikes on Bahatyr, about 3 miles further west.

North-west of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces continue to press to the north-west along the line from Vilne Pole to Burletske to Vesele and may be pushing on the east side of the small town of Shevchenko. Just to the north-east of Vesele Russian forces are closing on Fedorivka and appear to be working down the small river valley of the Mokri Yaky river, using the terrain and trees as cover.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Kamyanske - Orikhiv line but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Other reporting suggests that Russian forces now control all of Lobkove, and some Ukrainian reporting suggests that Russian forces along this line are using artillery and drones to strike at and successfully interdict Ukrainian logistics assets trying to resupply Ukrainian forces.

Air Operations

During the night of April 7th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 48 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 9 drones, and 31 other drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). The Islander reportedly struck a "recreation center” in Vysoky, Kharkiv oblast (a town about 6 miles south-east of Kharkiv). Damage was also reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk oblasts.

Gen Syrskyi commented that the TU-22 Backfire that crashed on April 2nd was brought down by a Ukrainian drone, said that the drone struck it immediately after it landed. The Russian MOD said the aircraft crashed in flight, cause not stated.

3 aircrew lived, the pilot died in the crash.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 Apr9

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 60.61

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 57.36

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.50

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.39

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 86.07

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.32

Urals 56.56    67.61 71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 50.09

ESPO 78.19 UNK 71.50 70 70

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 58.08

The spot price of Urals oil is now the lowest it has been since a short spike down in mid-May 2023. 

Thoughts 

The drop in oil prices may be, in fact, the single largest negative pressure on the Kremlin, which has used oil sales (and a lesser extent grain sales), to provide revenue to fund the war. The concerns about a global economic downturn in the wake of the ongoing tariff disputes have pushed down energy demands and hence oil and gas prices. Russia has counted on oil at $70 per barrel or more to provide the necessary revenue to keep funding the war. Some long-term contracts continue with China and others, most at or above $70 per barrel (but still discounted when the deal were made), but these lower prices will, obviously, drive down revenue.

As for the grand campaign, there are two schools of thought as to what is going on: one is that the Russians are trying to take terrain at any cost and sacrificing huge numbers of troops to do so: claims by the Ukrainian General Staff and others of  7,000+ KIA per month for the last 8 months or more in the Pokrovsk region alone. These numbers are not borne out in the Mediazone casualty count, the only open source casualty count that attempts to use hard data, and which places total Russian KIA since February 2022 in the range of 100,000 - 165,000 (100,001 is the actual data sort as of March 27th, 165,000 is the upper end of their estimate).

Meanwhile, a source within the Ukrainian army HQ as of December 2024, admitted to 70,000 KIA and 35,000 missing, with a Ukrainian minister privately admitting last fall that there were, in fact, 50,000 missing and they knew that “most of them” were dead.

Thus, as opposed to the propaganda numbers produced by Ukraine, and various media outlets, and to some extent several capitals in Europe (the UK Ministry of Defense (MODUK)), the Ukrainians are suffering roughly equal casualties as are the Russians.

Which leads to the second school of thought, that the Russians are truly engaged in a war of attrition and the goal of these battles is not principally to take terrain, it is to kill Ukrainian soldiers - and then take terrain. And that is specifically what several Russian generals have been saying since the summer of 2022. 

Accordingly, while Russian forces are, in fact, trying to capture terrain, on any given day, attrition - killing - of Ukrainian troops remains the objective.

In the event of a new Russian offensive in the next several weeks, this should be remembered; the fundamental response to any attack can take one of two forms: either attrition or maneuver. Attrition devolves down to pushing more troops into the path of the attack until it bogs down and stops; maneuver means backing out, drawing the other side in, and then finding weak points (usually the flanks) and striking at those points and cutting off the attack. 

Ukraine has been resistant to maneuver warfare and has insisted that every inch of ground be held. Call that what you will, that is attrition warfare, and it is expensive in manpower. That is the war Russia is fighting, and the one Ukraine accepted. The casualties - on both sides - tell that story. But they also explain why these fights are progressing so slowly: because that is what the Russians want…

v/r pete