April 4th, 2025 Next Summary April 7th

Politics - Witkoff - Dmitriev meet, nothing to report

- Rubio comments: We will know soon if Russia wants peace 

Combat Ops - Russia makes ams gains

- New attacks in south?

Weather

Kharkiv

61 and clear. Partly cloudy Saturday, rain on Sunday, partly to mostly cloudy next week. In the 50s through the weekend, then daily highs in the upper 30s, daily lows near freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

60 and partly cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain on Sunday. Temperatures in the 50s Saturday and Sunday, then next week daily lows in the 30s  and daily highs in the 40s. Winds north-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

65 and partly cloudy gusting over 20. Rain tomorrow through Sunday night, snow flurries possible on Sunday. Cloudy all week, snow showers on Thursday. Tomorrow in the 40s, next week will see daily highs in the mid 30s, and daily lows below freezing. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Russian Special Envoy (Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund) Kirill Dmitriev met with US Special Envoy Witkoff yesterday to, in his words, “resume dialogue,” and they discussed returning US and Russian relations to a more normal status. But there were no specifics.

SecState Rubio commented on what is expected of Russia:

”Here's what the president wanted to do. He wants to end this war. He wanted to test this very early in his administration: Is it possible to end this war on terms that are acceptable to both sides? Because you can't end the war unless both sides agree. And that's what we're in the process of finding out. We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not.”

"If you're interested in peace, you stop fighting. And you lay out the conditions by which you're willing to end the war, and these have to be reasonable conditions, right? Not crazy stuff. If you're interested in peace, that's what you do. If you’re not interested in peace, then you sort of drag it out, come up with excuses.”

"If all of a sudden, we wake up tomorrow and the Russians are launching a massive offensive, I think that's a pretty clear sign that they're not interested in peace… That hasn’t happened yet, let’s hope it doesn’t happen. We want to know whether they want a peace or not. And if they do, then there’s a way there and we’re willing to help. If they’re not then it’s good to know early, so we can adjust our policies accordingly.”

Per a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Russia is "counting on US President Donald Trump to deliver an acceptable peace deal in Ukraine… appears resolved and prepared to pay a very high price to prevail in what he sees as a defining time in Russia’s strategic competition with the United States, world history, and his personal legacy,” and the ODNI assessment is that he will continue the war unless he achieves his stated goals through negotiations.

Ground Operations

KURSK SALIENT

Russian forces had confirmed gains into the town of Guyevo from the north. Guyevo is a bit more than a mile west of Plekhovo, and marks the north-east corner of the last pocket of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk Oblast. Russian bloggers made claims of Russian gains near the border and just inside Sumy Oblast, in the vicinity of Basivka, but these claims weren't confirmed.

South of Guyevo there is a broad arc of dense forest and Ukrainian forces are probably backing into these to slow the Russian advance. There are also several small rivers that cross the terrain between Guyevo and the border, which will serve as decent defensive positions as the Ukrainians withdraw. There are dirt roads on the edges of the large fields, but these will be of little value until the ground gets harder.

Near Belgorod, fighting continued west of Demidovka, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. The Ukrainian forces control two small pockets, neither more than perhaps 2,000 meters across, and a long, thin line along the border.

NORTH OF KHARKIV

Fighting continued in and around Vovchansk but her were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS

While fighting was reported along  most of the line of contact, there were no confirmed changes in the north and center of the line. 

Further south, west of Terny, Russian forces continue to slowly expand their salient west of the Zherebets, particularly pushing the north edge of the salient further north. This push near Novoliubivka essentially forms a small salient between that town and Russian forces operating north-west of Makiivka. Once again, the Russians have developed a potentially small pocket, not quite 4 x 4 miles in size, and again will press the Ukrainian commander with the option of holding on and taking casualties from artillery fire, or withdrawing to the west.

BAKHMUT

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

West of Bakhmut, in Chasiv Yar, Russian sources claimed Russian forces made small gains in the center of Chasiv Yar, but some fighting continues in the town center.

Further south, in Toretsk, there were claims of Russian gains in the center and south side of the town but these were not confirmed.

DONETSK CITY

Just north of the Pokrovsk salient, fighting continues in the Panteleimonvika area but there were no confirmed changes in the line. Just south of that town Russian forces pushed westward from the area of the small town of Oleksandropil, essentially another example of the Russians pushing into to unoccupied or lightly defended terrain and in doing so straighten and shorten their lines.

Ukrainian forces south-west of Pokrovsk made gains in both Novoyelyzavetivka and Nadiivka (side-by-side, about 11 miles south-west of Pokrovsk).

  Russian sources claim Russian forces have seized Bohdanivka (about 15 miles south-west of Pokrovsk). Overall Russian forces continue to probe and strike with artillery and drones, and there were reports of Russian actions in 17 other towns along the edge of the salient.

Immediately south of the Pokrovsk salient, Russian forces on the east edge of Oleksiivka, continue to press westward, along the T-0428 roadway, following the road and the Vovcha River, but it isn't clear that they gained any ground yesterday.

Just to the south, Kostyanynopil remains divided, but Russian forces appear to have taken Rozlyv, and have begun an attack on Bahatyr from the south.

Further south, north-east of Velyka Novosilke, Russian forces have pressed north-west, down the Mokri Yaly River, and have pushed into Vesele. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian forces have in fact, pushed through that town and reached Fedorivka and a bit further south have pushed past Burlatske. If these two movements are correct, Russian forces now sit astride the last east-west Ukrainian defensive line across southern Ukraine. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Russian reports claimed Russian gains near Kamyanske, and that there are Russian attacks taking place from Kamyanske to Stepove to Mali Shcherbaky to Shcherbaky, a span of 10 miles. Current Ukrainian maps show 4 Russian regiments and 1 Spetsnaz brigade along this section of the line. It’s not clear what Ukrainian forces are located in this area.

Air Operations

During the night of April 3rd Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 42 drones, and 22 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. 

During the night of April 2nd Russian forces launched 39 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 7 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. 

During the night of April 1st and int0 the day on the 2nd, Russian forces launched at least 1 ballistic missile and 74 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, and 20 drones were “lost,” brought down by EW. Damage was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts. A ballistic missile struck  Kryvyi Rih, killing 14 and wounding 50.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Dec9 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr2 Apr4

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      80.06 72.63 76.69 74.89 70.00 74.56 65.56

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      75.81 68.85 73.94 71.17 66.97 71.40 62.04

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      2.82 3.17 3.66 3.37 4.44 4.06 3.90

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17       6.40 5.59 5.37 5.86 5.37 5.36 5.27

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59      88.77 100.84 105.18 96.88 89.50 84.25 85.05

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.55 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.35 41.18

Urals 56.56    67.61 66.19 71.76 68.32 65.49 57.00 UNK

ESPO 77 78.19 ??? 71.50 76.06 64, 06

Sokol 65.32 72.79 70.92 67.20 71.08 66.21

Brent fell briefly to 64.39 per barrel, and WTI to 61.86; the lowest price for either since April 2021.

Thoughts 

Tough talk from SecState Rubio and a negative assessment from the ODNI. 

But, in fact, this was always going to distill down to dealing between Trump and Putin. Some members of Trump’s staff reportedly don’t want him to talk to Putin, but I would submit the only two people who really can end this thing are Trump and Putin, and really, Trump. No one else seems at all interested in actually trying to negotiate an end.

Meanwhile, the Russian ground war continues. Of note, the attack on the west end of the line, near Kamyanske, seems like a marginal effort if the report of 5 regiments or brigades on a 10 mile front. But there was a report from Russian bloggers from several days ago - otherwise unverified - that the Russians had moved tens of thousands of troops into that area in the last two weeks. Surely this would be detected by intelligence systems. In any case, this will bear watching. If there are large scale Russian reserves in that area the Ukrainians would have a serious problem in their hands. 

v/r pete