March 9th, 2026

Politics - Hungary and Ukraine: tensions rise over oil and money

- More power outages in Ukraine

Combat Ops - Large Russian strike package March 6th

Economics - Oil prices up - Russian oil included 

Weather

Spring seems to have arrived, the thaw will continue; mud season has arrived.

Kharkiv

47 and sunny. Sunny all week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

52 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny all week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

53 and partly cloudy. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows for the next week in the low 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

As noted on Friday, Hungarian police arrested 7 employees of Ukraine’s Oschadbank who were transporting some $80 million in cash and 9kg (20lbs) of gold from Austria to Ukraine.

Hungary’s National Tax and Customs Administration later announced that “criminal proceedings” had been started on suspicion of money laundering. Hungarian authorities now pass along that the men were transporting cash of $40 million US and 35 million euros ($41 million) and 9 kg (20lbs) of gold.

Hungarian ForMin Szijjártó commented:

“Since January, a total of $900 million and €420 million [$496 million] in cash has been transported through Hungary, and 146 kilograms [322lbs] of gold bars have also been transported through the country.”

“We have a number of serious questions about this. First of all, this is a huge amount of cash, and we wonder why Ukrainians need to transport such a large amount of cash. If it is true that this is a transaction between banks, then the question rightly arises as to why the banks do not settle this between themselves by bank transfer, why it is necessary to transport such a large amount of cash, and why it has to be transported through Hungary.”

“These questions arise mainly because these cash shipments are accompanied by people who have clear ties to Ukrainian secret services.”

Hungarian PM Orban’s political director commented:

“Hundreds of millions in cash and gold moving through Hungary toward Ukraine — escorted by people linked to Ukrainian intelligence. Armored vehicles, suitcases full of money, staggering sums. Whose money is this? What was it meant to finance? Who benefits from it? And why must such enormous amounts of cash travel across our country instead of being transferred through normal banking channels?”

Kyiv labeled the arrests of the Ukrainians as: “hostage taking.”

At the same time ForMin Szijjártó condemned Zelenskyy’s remarks (“We hope that in the European Union, one person will not block the 90 billion [euros]. Otherwise, we will give this person’s address to the armed forces, to our guys, let them call him and talk to him in their own language,” Zelensky said).  Szijjártó suggested they were a threat against Orban, commenting at a press conference that Zelenskyy’s comment was:

“… beyond every limit… the kind of ‘culture’ coming from Kyiv. This is the man Brussels admires and the country they want to fast-track into the European Union. No one can threaten Hungary or its prime minister. No one can blackmail us just because we refuse to pay the price of Ukraine’s war and refuse to accept higher energy prices because of Ukraine.”

Slovak PM Fico will support Hungary’s PM Orban position on blocking the EU loan of 90 billion euros ($106 billion) to Ukraine.

"But the most important message will be that Slovakia is ready to take over from Hungary, if necessary. Currently, the EUR 90 billion military loan to Ukraine is actually blocked. But I am not naive.

“The President of Ukraine has recently been talking about resuming supplies in a month or a month and a half, that is, after the elections in Hungary, where he expects the opposition to win. Then there will be no chance for oil from the east, unless someone else takes over the Hungarian baton. Blocking this huge military gift to Ukraine is a legitimate tool to achieve the resumption of oil supplies.” 

Fico commented that President Zelenskyy’s comment that he would give PM Orban’s address to the Ukrainian army "crosses all red lines." 

He then commented that the 90 billion euros was a:

”mere gift…Because Ukraine will not return anything from these EUR 90 billion, just as it will not return anything from the next EUR 100 billion."

Of note, Peter Magyar, leader of the Hungarian opposition party Tisa, has also defended PM Orban and called for an apology and retraction from President Zelenskyy.

Fico will meet with the head of the European Commission and raise the issue of the Druzhba pipeline, which provides oil from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia, and in particular of pressuring the Ukrainian government to fix the pipeline.

As of the morning of March 9th, power out in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. The Ukrenergo National Power Company statement:

"Due to hostile attacks on energy infrastructure and as a result of hostilities in frontline regions, consumers in the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv Regions have lost power as of this morning. Where security conditions allow, emergency restoration work is already underway.”

Ground Operations

Ground operations over the past weekend, and the past week, showed very little change. An Ukrainian military spokesman noted that Russian forces appear to be rotating some units to the rear and refitting, in anticipation of a probable spring offensive.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south-east sector of the front, north of Hulyaipole, made some gains last week, but has not gained any ground in at least 3 days. Fighting was reported along most of the line - mostly recon probes by Russian elements of 5 men or less. A report of a Russian mechanized assault in the Hulyaipole area later showed what was listed as a “platoon sized” assault, but which in fact consisted of a single tank, a single IFV and 2 small all terrain vehicles (ATVs). In all likelihood, this was nothing more than the use of the 2 armored vehicles and ATVs to get perhaps a squad (10 men or so) forward without getting shot up, and they went too far before dismounting and were detected and the Ukrainians fired on them.

Fighting was again reported in the vicinity of the Antonovsky bridge, but there were no details.

All that said, the Pokrovske regional government (in Dnipropetrovsk, about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole) has ordered a “mandatory evacuation” of 5 villages in the area, all north or west of Pokrovske.

Pokrovska Territorial Community

•••

!! ATTENTION! MANDATORY EVACUATION! In order to preserve the life and health of the community residents, due to the increased threat to life and security as a result of the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, in accordance with the decisions of the Synelnyk District Coordination Headquarters for Evacuation dated March 3, 2026, Protocol No. 5, the Synelnyk District Commission for Evacuation dated March 4, 2026, Protocol No. 9, a decision was made to carry out mandatory evacuation from certain settlements of the Synelnyk District of the Dnipropetrovsk Region, where hostilities are underway, namely: Katerynivka village, Zarichne village, Drozdy village, Romanky village, Vodyane village. • Evacuation will be carried out within 30 days from March 5, 2026.

The evacuation transit point has been designated as the village of Voloske, Dniprovsk district, Dnipropetrovsk region.

Air and Maritime Operations

President Zelenskyy posted that since March 1st (8 days) the Russians have launched 1,750 strike drones, 1,530 glide bombs and 39 missiles into Ukrainian airspace.

Russian glide bomb usage continues to slowly climb.

Ukrainian forces report Russian forces setting up both antenna towers and aerostats near the front to provide links for wifi control of drones, replacing the Starlink system.

During the night of March 8th-March 9th Russian forces launched at least 

2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 197 x  strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 161 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa  oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, the NAFTOGAZ production facility in Poltava was struck again.

Civilian casualties not reported.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

During the night of March 7th-March 8th Russian forces launched at least 

2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 117 x  strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 98 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava and Sumy  oblasts. Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, to include the NAFTOGAZ production facility in Poltava.

Civilian casualties included at least 11 killed and 16 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 14 towns.

During the night of March 6th-March 7th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Zircon missiles, 13 Iskander ballistic missiles, 14 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 480 x  strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 8 ballistic missiles, 11 Kalibr cruise missiles and 453 drones.

Damage was reported in  Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Vinytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 9 killed and 23 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

During the night of March 5th-March 6th Russian forces launched at least 141 x  strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Donetsk, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 1 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 11 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar6 Mar9

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 91.47 106.40

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 89.00 103.60

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.11 3.37

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 6.13 6.25

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 78.94 78.20

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.67 43.93

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 71.07 90.97

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 75.40 84.99

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 75.98 101.55

Note that prices were higher on Sunday, WTI hit 116.57 yesterday, Brent hit 116.82, and Murban crude (UAE crude that loads at Fujairah, just outside of the Strait of Hormuz), traded at 120.25 per barrel on Sunday, now trading at 114.30.

Thoughts

The tension between Kyiv and Budapest, and now Kyiv and Bratislava, is festering and appears to be capable of growing well out of proportion to the original issue. Add on what certainly looks like a money laundering scheme or some other sub rosa activities and it is clear that Kyiv needs to act quickly to get this tamped down or run the risk of several EU states acting together in a manner that could simply freeze EU support to Ukraine. 

This is a potential “for want of a nail” situation.

Presumably the five in villages Dnipropetrovsk are being evacuated in anticipation of a Russian offensive later in the spring. It may also be that the Ukrainians will use the towns as defensive positions and start building hard points in each to block any Russian advance. 

The Ukrainian Air Force is sending some personnel to the Gulf to pass along lessons learned about engaging Iranian strike drones. All well and good. I would hope someone will ask the other side of that question: why is it that no matter how many or how few drones the Russians launch, about 10 - 15% always seem to get through?

v/r pete