March 4th, 2026

Politics - Chancellor Merz talks with President Trump

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Strikes continue, focus on transportation infrastructure

Economics - Oil prices still climbing 

Weather

Warmer weather (above freezing) continues, thawing will begin, ground softens, rivers will start to fill; trucks forced onto roads, making targeting easier and moving troops and logistics more difficult.

Kharkiv

34 and cloudy gusting to 20. Snow tomorrow afternoon, cloudy Friday and then gradual clearing over the following several days. Daily lows around freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

36 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy Friday, but otherwise mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the low 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

42 and clear. Cloudy Thursday and Friday and then mostly sunny weather for most of next week. Daily lows for the next week at or just below freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday, then 5 days with afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

Chancellor Merz after meetings in Washington with president Trump:

"I leave Washington with the strong impression that the U.S. admin clearly understands what is at stake in Ukraine, and that this country cannot make further territorial concessions beyond those areas already militarily occupied by Russia — and no more”

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city and north of Kharkiv City, but there were no confirmed charges to the front lines.

There is a report that Russian forces have pushed across the border and into the village (actually just a single large farm) of Bobylivka (about 55 miles north-north-west of Sumy city), but this has not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Russian forces continued probes along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

BAKHMUT - KOSTIANTINIVKA - POKROVSK

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact, and there were several instances of confirmed gains by both sides.

North of Bakhmut, in the Slovyansk - Lyman - Siversk  general area, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Dobrysheve (about 12 miles north-north-east of Slovyansk), pushing into the center of that town. Dobrysheve (pre-war population of 2,500) was mainly a “bedroom” community supporting the local farming. 

Further to the south-east, imagery confirms Russian troops in Fedorivka Druha (about 10 miles south-east of Slovyansk), a very small village (pre-war population of 64) west of Nykyforivka. Imagery does not show the Russians control the area, only that they have pushed into the town, but this would mean that the Ukrainian force that was east of the town (between Fedorivka Druha and Nykyforivka) has been forced to withdraw.

Fighting continues in and around the east end of Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes to the lines.

Further west, fighting continues west and north of Pokrovsk and there are no "confirmed in imagery” changes to the front lines.

However, Ukrainian reporting continues to show slow movement of the front line westward and there is no more reporting of any engagement inside Pokrovsk, implying, obviously, that the last Ukrainian elements have been cleared from the ruins. 

In addition, and again, not yet confirmed by imagery, reporting suggests some slow Russian gains northwest into eastern and now central Hryshyne.

Fighting continues to the south-west, and imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces in the area of Novomykolaivka (about 12 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solona River), have pushed about a mile south-east into Russian lines. Fighting continues inside Novomykolaivka itself, with the town split fairly evenly in two.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting contains along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to line.

Russian forces are again probing into Ukrainian terrain in the area of the February counter-offensive, and trying to read between the various reports it would seem that the Ukrainian forces have not made any gains in the small counter offensive north of Hulyaipole since last Monday (the 23rd).

Further west, along the Dnepr River, imagery confirmed a Russian recon element had probed into Veselyanka, about 7 miles north of Kamyanske, and about 9 miles south-east of the center of Zaporizhzhia city.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of March 3rd-March 4th Russian forces launched at least 2 x ballistic missiles (type not identified) and 149 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 129 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy oblasts; ballistic missiles struck in Dnipro city, and Voznesensk, Mykolaiv.

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities.

Civilian casualties included at least 4 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

During the night of March 2nd-March 3rd Russian forces launched at least 136 x strike drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down, or defeated with EW, 127 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Poltava oblasts. 

Targets again included the power grid and transportation facilities, with power outages in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, and oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least  civilians were 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 13 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Oct8 Nov7 Dec8 Jan8 Feb9 Mar3 Mar4

Brent      94.71   66.18 63.86 62.94 61.26 68.57 82.76 81.28

WTI     92.10   62.48 59.94 59.26 57.10 64.04 75.73 74.24

NG       3.97       3.44 4.33 4.96 3.41 3.20 3.10 2.95

Wheat      8.52  5.06 5.32 5.38 5.22 5.29 5.82 5.67

Ruble     85          81.28 80.95 76.52 80.35 77.40 77.50 77.78

Hryvnia 28.6 41.48 41.89 42.15 43.10 43.03 43.57 43.90

Urals 91.66 61.15 56.56 54.92 50.40 56.37 62.52 68.83

ESPO 94.52 66.74 65.18 61.95 52.28 59.77 69.24 72.90

Sokol 99.31 61.91 60.71 60.62 55.57 62.85 72.54 73.87

Note the ESPO and Sokol prices, which are Eastern Asia markets.

The Ukrainian government reported that in January the average Ukrainian salary dropped to 29,975 hryvnia ($651) per month, a decrease of 9.5% from December. 

Thoughts

The fighting appears to have slowed just a bit; Russian probes continue though it seems somewhat less aggressive, and again, I would lay it at the feet of the warmer weather which brings mud season to Ukraine.

It is of note that comparing the various disposition maps that are found on line, there has been very little change in the last 2 weeks except in the area about 20 mile north of Hulyaipole, where the Ukrainian counteroffensive - which appears to have consisted of no more than 2 brigades, hasn’t changed in a week; and in the very slow forward movement of Russian forces just north and west of Pokrovsk, around Kostiantinivka, and east of Slovyansk.

All said, it seems that mud season is here AND the Russian slow grind, war of attrition continues.

It is also of note that the overall amount of reporting has dropped off as news agencies shutlet assets to cover the war in the Gulf and Russia - Ukraine falls out of the scan.

By the way, a correction! As was pointed out by one of my eagle-eyed correspondents, I referenced Field Marshal Clausewitz yesterday, but Clausewitz’s highest rank was major general! And I suspect no Prussian would accept a promotion from me!

v/r pete